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An Insight into Decision-Making … Decision on- In today’s highly competitive environment, you cannot survive on sub-optimal decisions! Are you living in a world of sub-optimal decision-making? Do you really believe you are making optimum decisions? How will you know if you made the best decision? Can you defend your “gut-feel” decisions? When we say, “we made a good decision”, we mean that it produced the desire outcome! Sadly, we have to wait for the outcome, before we can pronounce success or failure. Ideally we need a method that would give us confidence that we made the “optimum” decision. The XpertUS Decision Support System gives you exactly what you need. Furthermore, even a “good” decision” might not produce the desired results, if we fail in the implementation phase! Today, management is bombarded with data and information. This is the result of huge advances in information technology (IT). But IT is simply Gathering, Organizing, and Disseminating information. Still, someone has to make the final decision. We forgot to train our management on how to handle this information overload. People are still relying on common-sense and experience. A person, who has not been trained in tennis, cannot be expected to play championship tennis. Similarly, a person who has not had any formal training in decision-making is not likely to make optimum decisions. Over the years self-proclaimed “experts” have recommended a variety of tools and techniques for decision-making. However, some of these are not decision-making techniques. They are creative thinking and brainstorming techniques. Furthermore, due to their extreme complexity, some decision-making techniques are not suitable for use in Dr. Errol Wirasinghe industry, where management needs a “practical” tool for day-to-day decision-making. Author, Speaker, Coach, Developer of the XpertUS Decision Support System Creative Thinking Decision-Making Techniques, too & Brainstorming techniques for complex for Techniques Industry day-to-day use Bayesian models Cost/Benefit Analysis (C-B) Pareto Analysis; Monte Carlo Techniques Decision Tree Analysis (D-T) Force Field Analysis; Fuzzy Logic Grid (Matrix) Analysis Plus/Minus/Implications (PMI) Expert Systems Pairwise Comparison (P-C) Six Thinking Hats Neural Networks Fishbone (Cause & Effect) Artificial Intelligence; etc. This leaves us with only a few Some of these techniques are extremely Many tend to confuse these to be techniques that are truly useful, and of sophisticated; highly mathematical in decision-making techniques; they are not. value, for decision-making in day-to-day nature, and are taught in business schools. They are a valuable precursor to any situations. They are not highly They serve a valuable function in many decision-making exercise. Remember, the mathematical, and do not require expert crucial areas, such as defense, finance, best decision, is only as good as the best know-how. Yet, they enhance and add research, etc. However, most people who option. Thus it is imperative that you use structure to “gut-feel” and “common- learn these techniques, never actually use these techniques to identify creative sense” techniques. Furthermore, they them in their day-to-day management roles, solutions. provide reliable and consistent results. simply because of their inherent complexity.

Can you afford to perpetuate the “learn on the job” practice, facts….. …..! Know the facts…..! or are you willing to train your staff? In today’s competitive environment, you cannot survive on sub-optimal decisions! Our 8-hr training program which has been approved by many organizations for Professional Development Credits 1. A good decision must satisfy three parameters: Timely, Optimal and Consistent (repeatable). 2. Even if you make a good “gut-feel” decision, you need to be able to defend your decision. 8. The Cost-Benefit (C-B) analysis and the Decision-Tree 3. All decisions are driven by a set of criteria (factors), and a set (D-T) analysis are valuable for determining the utility of candidates (options–plausible solutions). Even though we value of the various candidates. Often we embed some do not expressly state the existence of criteria, we intuitively of our criteria, in these analyses. Nevertheless, these factor-in criteria during our analyses. do not serve us well when dealing with criteria that are qualitative in nature; e.g., “Comfort of the ride”, when 4. Decisions are made on the basis of qualitative interpretations purchasing a car; the “maverick” management style of of quantitative data. That is why a $12.00 stock is a buy for the CEO, when deciding on an investment. one person and a sell for another. Though perception is not reality, it is our perceptions that drive our decisions. 9. The Grid (Matrix) technique is highly subjective, and terribly flawed, in that it requires arbitrary assignment of 5. Problem-solving is unique to the problem, while decision- criteria weights. Furthermore, group comparison of making is unique to the person. Thus, your subjectivity will candidates leads, to inconsistent (over time) conclusions. always have a significant impact on your decisions. There is Decision-makers are strongly advised to abandon the no way that you can totally eliminate subjectivity. In fact, you Matrix method. should not try to eliminate your subjectivity, since your decision must reflect your feelings, emotions, values, etc. 10. We strongly recommend the use of the Pairwise However, you must avoid any excessive bias that might be Comparison (P-C) technique for all decision-making associated with your subjective behavior. needs, because it is the only technique that allows us to assign criteria weights in a meaningful and reliable way, 6. Creative thinking is not decision-making. Creative thinking and also avoid the pitfalls of group comparisons. and brainstorming deals with identifying available options and However, we encourage the use of the C-B analysis and solutions. Decision-making deals with deciding on the the D-T analysis, when dealing with financial issues of optimum solution, to act upon. the various options. These add value to the P-C technique, and can co-exist harmoniously with it. 7. ‘Brainstorming” techniques are extremely useful for identifying criteria and candidates. However, these are not decision- 11. Any tool or technique is of little value, unless it is an making techniques. Even the best decision-making tool or integral part of a structured methodology. To get the best technique is of little value, unless you have creatively value from the P-C technique, we suggest you follow the identified high-quality options (candidates). Remember, the steps shown below. best decision, is only as good as the best option. The quality of your decision will depend on: The Six-W Method 1. Data & Information (problem domain) 1. What decision needs to be made? 2. Context Information 2. When should it be made? 3. Creative Options 3. Who will make the decision? 4. Solution Technique Used (P-C technique) 4. Who will ratify or veto the decision? 5. Who needs to be consulted? 5. Expertise (of the decision-maker) 6. Who needs to be informed? However, the final outcome will depend on: A. Appropriate Timing The 7-Step “XpertUS” Technique: B. Adequate Resources 1. Clearly define objective C. Commitment to Execution 2. Identify criteria D. Changing Circumstances 3. Extract obligatory criteria 4. Identify candidates 5. Gather information on candidates 6. Assign criteria weights www.XpertUS.com; errolw@xpertus.com 7. Rank candidates Ph. 281-587-8242; 713-304-5796 13722 Camelot Centre, #200, Houston, TX 77069 USA

XpertUS Brochure

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