Finding New Opportunities in Media Convergence Chris Deering XML Wellington NZ – May, 2008

The Biggest Trends of the Decade Communities escape geographic shackles Remote data storage skyrockets Global virtual currencies Broadband becomes mega-band and blankets the world Education, medicine and government become collaborative and connected with the mass market Classrooms become conference rooms Work and shopping travel become more scarce

Communities escape geographic shackles

Remote data storage skyrockets

Global virtual currencies

Broadband becomes mega-band and blankets the world

Education, medicine and government become collaborative and connected with the mass market

Classrooms become conference rooms

Work and shopping travel become more scarce

Broadband Speed by Country – mbps as of April 2008 - national average 30 - S Korea 48 - Finland 28 - Sweden 18 - Netherlands 8 - Portugal 8 - Norway 7 - Austria 7 - Belgium 6 - Germany 6 - Denmark 5 - Italy 3 - UK 2 - Spain 1 The differences are huge

- S Korea 48

- Finland 28

- Sweden 18

- Netherlands 8

- Portugal 8

- Norway 7

- Austria 7

- Belgium 6

- Germany 6

- Denmark 5

- Italy 3

- UK 2

- Spain 1

The differences are huge

Understanding Scale Number of MySpace Members Lifetime Global PS2 Sales Units Daily “YouTube” videos watched Size of annual PC market units Size of Global Mobile Handset Market in Annual Units 1.3 Billion 100+ 100+ 100+ 100 100 millions

Entertainment spending – USA example Annual Spending per Household - Basic cable/satellite subscriptions $ 475 - Video/DVD purchases $ 250 - Cinema tickets $ 80 - Video rental $ 70 - Pay per view/VOD $ 65 - Pay cable/satellite channels $ 60 $1, 000 Understanding Scale

Annual Spending per Household

- Basic cable/satellite subscriptions $ 475

- Video/DVD purchases $ 250

- Cinema tickets $ 80

- Video rental $ 70

- Pay per view/VOD $ 65

- Pay cable/satellite channels $ 60

$1, 000

Understanding Scale… Where is the Money? % of world EXPORTS IMPORTS (total: $14 trillion) Germany 9.5 7.5 China 8.8 6.7 USA 8.4 14.2 Japan 5.1 France 4.0 Holland 4.0 Italy 3.5 UK 3.1 S Korea 2.9 Russia 2.6

% of world

EXPORTS IMPORTS

(total: $14 trillion)

Germany 9.5 7.5

China 8.8 6.7

USA 8.4 14.2

Japan 5.1

France 4.0

Holland 4.0

Italy 3.5

UK 3.1

S Korea 2.9

Russia 2.6

Think “experiences” What experiences come to mind? WAP iPod iPhone Blackberry Google Amazon Facebook

What experiences come to mind?

WAP

iPod

iPhone

Blackberry

Google

Amazon

Facebook

Opportunities in New Experiences Revolution in user interfaces and input including voice Mobile phone communities go massive + global “ New Experiences ” Impact Information , Employment and Entertainment Monetisation of streaming unleashes ” the long tail of live “ “ Concierge ” services abound as “ Time ” becomes precious commodity Females become the biggest paying audience on the web Ubiquitous screens and HiDef redefine “TV” GPS on mobiles and “ location aware ” servers

The Expanding Reach of Mobile Networks create massive mobile social networks Mobile phones become “all in one” devices Handheld social networks grew from 30mm to 55mm (’06-’07) 2012 estimates range from 400mm to 800mm Primarily 18-35 60/40 male/female .. Initially “ kindred spirits”

Mobile phones become “all in one” devices

Handheld social networks grew from 30mm to 55mm (’06-’07)

2012 estimates range from 400mm to 800mm

Primarily 18-35

60/40 male/female .. Initially

“ kindred spirits”

GPS in Phones, dog collars, car keys It costs $5 to add GPS to a mobile handset In 2007 10mm phones had a GPS module In 2008 110mm phones will have GPS In 2012 you guess.. IMAGINE THE NEW EXPERIENCES!

It costs $5 to add GPS to a mobile handset

In 2007 10mm phones had a GPS module

In 2008 110mm phones will have GPS

In 2012 you guess..

IMAGINE THE NEW EXPERIENCES!

Advertising on Mobile Devices.. It’s just the beginning So far, largely untapped, and tricky, regulated (consumer must enable) and small screen But, “as all in one” devices proliferate, mobile advertising will become a new industry Global ads on handsets was $870mm in ’07 In ’08, this will grow to $1.4 billion There is over $400 billion more in global ad spending that can migrate to this medium

So far, largely untapped, and tricky, regulated (consumer must enable) and small screen

But, “as all in one” devices proliferate, mobile advertising will become a new industry

Global ads on handsets was $870mm in ’07

In ’08, this will grow to $1.4 billion

There is over $400 billion more in global ad spending that can migrate to this medium

Video is everywhere.. In Hi Def. Live, and on every screen. Any time. All the time. The term “TV” ceases to be used You can watch anything you want. Its all there. User generated, live events, and everything ever recorded Advertisers know what you are watching and where you are when you watch You won’t have the time to check guides You will need advice From a source you trust.. Before you think of asking for it HOW WILL THIS HAPPEN? CAN YOU HELP?

The term “TV” ceases to be used

You can watch anything you want. Its all there.

User generated, live events, and everything ever recorded

Advertisers know what you are watching and where you are when you watch

You won’t have the time to check guides

You will need advice

From a source you trust..

Before you think of asking for it

HOW WILL THIS HAPPEN? CAN YOU HELP?

TV over Internet will replace most viewing Projected US Online Content Spending Video/TV on demand Games 2006 $ 0.29 billion $ 0.65 billion 2007 0.75 1.04 2008 1.48 1.15 2009 2.57 2.09 2010 4.29 2.50

Projected US Online Content Spending

Video/TV on demand Games

2006 $ 0.29 billion $ 0.65 billion

2007 0.75 1.04

2008 1.48 1.15

2009 2.57 2.09

2010 4.29 2.50

Open Access Linux Devices will rule Global Installed base of Linux devices 2008 2009 2010 2011 millions 131 227 337 523 % by area: Americas 8% 10% 11% 12% Greater Eur. 16 17 17 18 China/India 52 48 46 45 ME/Africa 3 5 6 7 Asia/Pac 21 20 19 18

Global Installed base of Linux devices

2008 2009 2010 2011

millions 131 227 337 523

% by area:

Americas 8% 10% 11% 12%

Greater Eur. 16 17 17 18

China/India 52 48 46 45

ME/Africa 3 5 6 7

Asia/Pac 21 20 19 18

Mobile Television Subscribers/Users will grow in both Digital and Analog modes 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 mm Analog 20 110 170 210 260 Digital 75 90 130 180 220 TOTAL 95 200 300 390 480

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 mm

Analog 20 110 170 210 260

Digital 75 90 130 180 220

TOTAL 95 200 300 390 480

Mobile Learning Market 3G, Wi-Fi and WIMAX Networks Sexy User Interfaces and remote storage Community and Collaboration Applications Content Creation & Conversion Tools More powerful devices & browsers Mobile Collaborative Learning Source: Ambient Insight

Finding Opportunities Spot the trend Help the trend to move faster by your idea Help the experience feel more enjoyable. Decide the trend that YOU will set.. Then add energy!

Start your own new media business..! You can FAIL without trying… But you cannot SUCCEED without trying. Develop a mission to disrupt and improve the status quo. Make a real, detailed plan and get started. The plan will change, but there must be a plan. Live for your mission. Evangelise your mission. Know that there will be failure and be grateful for failure. It breeds new solutions and new ideas. And ultimately, SUCCESS.

You can FAIL without trying… But you cannot SUCCEED without trying.

Develop a mission to disrupt and improve the status quo. Make a real, detailed plan and get started. The plan will change, but there must be a plan.

Live for your mission. Evangelise your mission.

Know that there will be failure and be grateful for failure. It breeds new solutions and new ideas.

And ultimately, SUCCESS.

Don’t assume you are too late There IS such a things as “ first mover disadvantage !”

There IS such a things as “ first mover disadvantage !”

Questions ?