2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter Two Determination of Interest Rates
Interest Rate Fundamentals <ul><li>Nominal interest rates: the interest rates actually observed in financial markets </li>...
Time Value of Money and Interest Rates <ul><li>The time value of money is based on the notion that a dollar received today...
Present Value of a Lump Sum <ul><li>Discount future payments using current interest rates to find the present value (PV)  ...
Future Value of a Lump Sum <ul><li>The future value (FV) of a lump sum received at the beginning of an investment horizon ...
Relation between Interest Rates and Present and Future Values 2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin Present  Value (PV) Interest Rate Futur...
Present Value of an Annuity <ul><li>The present value of a finite series of equal cash flows received on the last day of e...
Future Value of an Annuity <ul><li>The future value of a finite series of equal cash flows received on the last day of equ...
Effective Annual Return <ul><li>Effective or equivalent annual return ( EAR ) is the return earned or paid over a 12-month...
Financial Calculators <ul><li>Setting up a financial calculator </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Number of digits shown after decimal...
Loanable Funds Theory <ul><li>Loanable funds theory explains interest rates and interest rate movements </li></ul><ul><li>...
Supply and Demand of Loanable Funds 2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin Interest Rate Quantity of Loanable Funds Supplied and Demanded De...
Shifts in Supply and Demand Curves change Equilibrium Interest Rates 2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin Increased supply of loanable fun...
Determinants of Interest Rates  for Individual Securities <ul><li>i j * =  f(IP, RIR, DRP j , LRP j , SCP j , MP j ) </li>...
Determinants of Interest Rates  for Individual Securities (cont’d) <ul><li>Default Risk Premium ( DRP ) </li></ul><ul><ul>...
Term Structure of Interest Rates: the Yield Curve 2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin Yield to Maturity Time to Maturity (a) (b) (c) (a) ...
Unbiased Expectations Theory <ul><li>Long-term interest rates are geometric averages of current and expected future short-...
Liquidity Premium Theory <ul><li>Long-term interest rates are geometric averages of current and expected future short-term...
Market Segmentation Theory <ul><li>Individual investors and FIs have specific maturity preferences </li></ul><ul><li>Inter...
Implied Forward Rates <ul><li>A forward rate ( f ) is an expected rate on a short-term security that is to be originated a...
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Financial Markets & Institutions Ch02

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Financial Markets & Institutions Ch02

  1. 1. 2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter Two Determination of Interest Rates
  2. 2. Interest Rate Fundamentals <ul><li>Nominal interest rates: the interest rates actually observed in financial markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>affect the values (prices) of securities traded in money and capital markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>affect the relationships between spot and forward FX rates </li></ul></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  3. 3. Time Value of Money and Interest Rates <ul><li>The time value of money is based on the notion that a dollar received today is worth more than a dollar received at some future date </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Simple interest: interest earned on an investment is not reinvested </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Compound interest: interest earned on an investment is reinvested </li></ul></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  4. 4. Present Value of a Lump Sum <ul><li>Discount future payments using current interest rates to find the present value (PV) </li></ul><ul><li>PV = FV t [1/(1 + r )] t = FV t ( PVIF r,t ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PV = present value of cash flow </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FV t = future value of cash flow (lump sum) received in t periods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>r = interest rate per period </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>t = number of years in investment horizon </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PVIF r,t = present value interest factor of a lump sum </li></ul></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  5. 5. Future Value of a Lump Sum <ul><li>The future value (FV) of a lump sum received at the beginning of an investment horizon </li></ul><ul><li>FV t = PV (1 + r ) t = PV ( FVIF r,t ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FVIF r,t = future value interest factor of a lump sum </li></ul></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  6. 6. Relation between Interest Rates and Present and Future Values 2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin Present Value (PV) Interest Rate Future Value (FV) Interest Rate
  7. 7. Present Value of an Annuity <ul><li>The present value of a finite series of equal cash flows received on the last day of equal intervals throughout the investment horizon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PMT = periodic annuity payment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PVIFA r,t = present value interest factor of an annuity </li></ul></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  8. 8. Future Value of an Annuity <ul><li>The future value of a finite series of equal cash flows received on the last day of equal intervals throughout the investment horizon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FVIFA r,t = future value interest factor of an annuity </li></ul></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  9. 9. Effective Annual Return <ul><li>Effective or equivalent annual return ( EAR ) is the return earned or paid over a 12-month period taking compounding into account </li></ul><ul><li>EAR = (1 + r ) c – 1 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>c = the number of compounding periods per year </li></ul></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  10. 10. Financial Calculators <ul><li>Setting up a financial calculator </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Number of digits shown after decimal point </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Number of compounding periods per year </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Key inputs/outputs (solve for one of five) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>N = number of compounding periods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>I/Y = annual interest rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PV = present value (i.e., current price) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PMT = a constant payment every period </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FV = future value (i.e., future price) </li></ul></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  11. 11. Loanable Funds Theory <ul><li>Loanable funds theory explains interest rates and interest rate movements </li></ul><ul><li>Views level of interest rates in financial markets as a result of the supply and demand for loanable funds </li></ul><ul><li>Domestic and foreign households, businesses, and governments all supply and demand loanable funds </li></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  12. 12. Supply and Demand of Loanable Funds 2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin Interest Rate Quantity of Loanable Funds Supplied and Demanded Demand Supply
  13. 13. Shifts in Supply and Demand Curves change Equilibrium Interest Rates 2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin Increased supply of loanable funds Quantity of Funds Supplied Interest Rate DD SS SS* E E* Q* i* Q** i** Increased demand for loanable funds Quantity of Funds Demanded DD DD* SS E E* i* i** Q* Q** Interest Rate
  14. 14. Determinants of Interest Rates for Individual Securities <ul><li>i j * = f(IP, RIR, DRP j , LRP j , SCP j , MP j ) </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation ( IP ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IP = [( CPI t+1 ) – ( CPI t )]/( CPI t ) x (100/1) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Real Interest Rate ( RIR ) and the Fisher effect </li></ul><ul><ul><li>RIR = i – Expected ( IP ) </li></ul></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  15. 15. Determinants of Interest Rates for Individual Securities (cont’d) <ul><li>Default Risk Premium ( DRP ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>DRP j = i jt – i Tt </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>i jt = interest rate on security j at time t </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>i Tt = interest rate on similar maturity U.S. Treasury security at time t </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Liquidity Risk ( LRP ) </li></ul><ul><li>Special Provisions ( SCP ) </li></ul><ul><li>Term to Maturity ( MP ) </li></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  16. 16. Term Structure of Interest Rates: the Yield Curve 2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin Yield to Maturity Time to Maturity (a) (b) (c) (a) Upward sloping (b) Inverted or downward sloping (c) Flat
  17. 17. Unbiased Expectations Theory <ul><li>Long-term interest rates are geometric averages of current and expected future short-term interest rates </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1 R N = actual N -period rate today </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>N = term to maturity, N = 1, 2, …, 4, … </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1 R 1 = actual current one-year rate today </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E( i r 1 ) = expected one-year rates for years, i = 1 to N </li></ul></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  18. 18. Liquidity Premium Theory <ul><li>Long-term interest rates are geometric averages of current and expected future short-term interest rates plus liquidity risk premiums that increase with maturity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>L t = liquidity premium for period t </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>L 2 < L 3 < …<L N </li></ul></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  19. 19. Market Segmentation Theory <ul><li>Individual investors and FIs have specific maturity preferences </li></ul><ul><li>Interest rates are determined by distinct supply and demand conditions within many maturity segments </li></ul><ul><li>Investors and borrowers deviate from their preferred maturity segment only when adequately compensated to do so </li></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  20. 20. Implied Forward Rates <ul><li>A forward rate ( f ) is an expected rate on a short-term security that is to be originated at some point in the future </li></ul><ul><li>The one-year forward rate for any year N in the future is: </li></ul>2- McGraw-Hill/Irwin
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