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J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
J miguel santos
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J miguel santos

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  • 1. J. Miguel Santos Director, International Sales Boeing Commercial Airplanes 6 November 2008 Porto, Portugal State of the Aviation Industry and Market OutlookBOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. TheseCopyright © 2008 Boeing. All rights reserved. statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing.
  • 2. Agenda Current environment Long-term outlook COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 3. Challenging market conditions Economic Outlook Recent era of high oil prices likely to be sustained for the foreseeable future Economic growth slowing in developed economies, emerging market growth at increased risk U.S. dollar remains weak, outlook mixed Customers Rapidly rising and continued fluctuation in jet fuel prices outpacing airline revenue and efficiency growth Capacity growth plans and profitability outlook declining; further bankruptcies likely Consolidation activity slowing as airlines focus on reacting to rising fuel prices and slowing economy COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 4. Oil prices and volatility remain high $/Barrel (Brent Crude Oil / Rotterdam Jet Fuel) 200 Avg Ann Prices 180 2003 $29 160 2004 $38 2005 $55 140 2006 $65 2007 $72 120 2008YTD $110 100 Jet Fuel 80 60 Crude Oil 40 20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 5. Airline fuel expenses have increased $130Bsince 2003 Global airline fuel expense (billions $) Share of operating expenses 35% 29% 25% 22% 16% 14% 14% $176 13% 13% $136 $111 $90 $61 $46 $43 $40 $44 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: IATA, June 2008 COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 6. Fuel Price Volatility a Challenge for PlanningAirlines Focus on Airplane Selection and Controlling Fuel Costs Hedging 450.0 Tankering 400.0 Weight impact of Jet Fuel Price per USG (US Cents) 350.0 adding features to the aircraft 300.0 APU use during 250.0 ground operations 200.0 Operational climb and 150.0 descent procedures 100.0 USA Europe Asia 50.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2008 average annual oil price forecasts as of October 2008 (Global Insight, EIA) COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY Boeing Proprietary
  • 7. Increasing risk in economic outlook -- world economy headed for recession 2008 2009 United States 1.5% 0.2%European Union 1.3% 0.4% Japan 0.6% 0.4% China 9.8% 8.4% Other Asia 4.4% 3.8% Latin America 5.0% 3.8% Mexico 1.8% 1.0% Middle East 6.4% 4.8% Canada World Growth: 0.6% 0.9% 2007 = 3.7% Other Europe 2.9% 2.6% 2008 = 2.6% India 2009 = 1.8% 7.2% 7.0% Africa 6.2% 6.2% Russia and CIS 7.4% 6.3%Australia and NZ 2.4% 2.4% $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 2007 GDP, Billions U.S. Dollars Based on Global Insight Monthly Interim Forecast (October Update — Annual Real GDP) COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 8. Airlines responding quickly Cutting 7,000 jobs 11-12% domestic capacity cuts Grounding 100 aircraft 16% domestic cut in 4Q08, 17% in 2009 Eliminating 3,000 jobs 11% domestic cut in 4Q08, 4.5% in 2009 2008/9 growth plan reduced from 8% to 0% Retiring up to 22 aircraft 10% capacity cut, up to 30% on long-haul routes COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 9. World airline productivity continues to rise—utilization and load factors at historical highs World Load Factors Single Aisle Utilization Twin Aisle Utilization Load FactorHours per Day Hours per Day 80%9.0 11.08.5 10.5 75% +13% +9% + 4%8.0 10.0 70%7.5 9.57.0 9.0 65%6.5 8.5 60%6.0 8.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2007E Utilization and load factors at historical highs Utilization and load factors at historical highs Sources: Utilization – ACAS, December 2006 database + RMT for 2007E; Load Factors – ICAO COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 10. Some have already failed, more likely COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 11. IATA Profitability OutlookSharply Higher Fuel Prices Push 2008 Forecast to Loss Net Profit (Loss) Billions $10 $6 $2 . . 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ($2) ($6) Source: 1983-2006: ICAO data for world scheduled ($10) traffic (domestic + international) 2007-8: IATA estimate for world scheduled traffic (domestic + international) ($14) Source: IATA, June 2008 COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 12. Strong, balanced backlog validates Boeing’sproduct strategy Backlog $ Model $ - Billions 747 Large 7% 737 300 276 777 Single-Aisle 255 32% 250 Twin-Aisle 61% 767 200 174 787 150 124 Region 100 Leasing Americas 70 & Govt Middle China & 50 East East Asia & Africa Russia Asia- Asia- 0 Europe S.E. Pacific Asia 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08Copyright © 2008 Boeing. All rights reserved.
  • 13. Sources of financing U.S. Dollars (in millions) 35,000 30,000 Cash / Other Public debt/ 25,000 capital markets Manufacturer 20,000 Bank debt 15,000 Export credit 10,000 5,000 Leasing companies 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 376 281 285 290 394 441 487 $26B $20B $19B $19B $25B $29B $33BCopyright © 2008 Boeing. All rights reserved.
  • 14. Agenda Current environment Long-term outlook COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 15. Aviation demand elasticity with other forms oftravel Intra-Europe Intra-N. America Europe-Asia Intra-Asia Trans-Atlantic Trans-Pacific Intra-Sub-Saharan Africa Intra-S. AmericaData Source: InterVISTAS; IATA COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 16. 20-year forecast:strong long-term growth COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 17. Emerging markets are driving theeconomic growth Annual GDP Growth, 2008 - 2027 China 7.1 SW Asia 6.4 Africa 5.1 Southeast Asia 4.4 CIS 4.4 Middle East 4.3 South America 4.2 Central America 3.8 WORLD 3.2 Oceania 3.1 North America 2.5 Europe 2.1 Northeast Asia 1.3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Source: Global Insight Percentage COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 18. Strong traffic growth for emerging markets Annual Traffic Growth Rate, 2008-2027 China-SW Asia 10% Oceania-SW Asia Africa-SW Asia China 9%NE Asia-SW Asia SW Asia 8% SE Asia S. America 7% 6% Africa-Europe 5% North Atlantic NE Asia 4% N. America – NE Asia Europe 3% North America 2% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2007 Traffic (RPK, billions) COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 19. …leading to a geographicallydiverse market COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 20. Single Aisle and Twin Aisle marketsleading the way COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 21. Asia-Pacific air traffic growth exceeds the worldaverage Added traffic Annual 2007 traffic 2008 - 2027 growth % Within Asia Pacific 7.1% To and from Europe 5.7%To and from North America 5.6% Asia-Pacific Average Growth: 6.7% Asia-Pacific Average To and from Middle East 5.7% GDP Growth: 4.1% To and from Africa 7.4% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 RPKs, billions COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 22. Asia-Pacific airlines will need 9,160new airplanes Market value: $1,190 billion2008-2027 747 and larger Twin-aisle Share of fleet Single-aisle Regional jets COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 23. Europe air traffic growth varies by market Added traffic Annual 2007 traffic 2008 - 2027 growth % Within Europe 3.5% To and fromNorth America 4.7% To and from Asia-Pacific 5.7% To and from Latin America 4.7% Europe Average Growth: 4.1% To and from Africa 5.4% Region’s Annual GDP Growth: 2.1% To and from Middle East 4.9% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 RPKs, billions COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 24. European airlines will need 6,900new airplanes Market value: $740 billion2008-2027 747 and larger Twin-aisle Share of fleet Single-aisle Regional jets COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 25. Africa air traffic growth varies by market Added traffic Annual 2007 traffic 2008 - 2027 growth % Africa--Europe 5.4% Africa--Africa 5.6% Africa--Middle East 6.1% Africa AverageAfrica--Southeast Asia 7.3% Growth: 6.0% Region’s Annual GDPAfrica--North America 5.4% Growth: 5.1% Africa--Other 7.1% 0 100 200 300 400 RPKs, billions COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 26. African airlines will need 560 newairplanes Market value: $60 billion2008-2027 747 and larger Twin-aisle Share of fleet Single-aisle Regional jets COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 27. Middle East air travel growth varies by market Added Traffic Annual 2007 traffic 2008 - 2027 growth % To/From Europe 4.9To/From Southwest Asia 6.0To/From Southeast Asia 5.4 Intra-Middle East 5.7 To/From North America 5.9 Region’s Average Growth: 5.5% To/From Africa 6.1 Region’s Average To/From China 6.0 GDP Growth: 4.3% To/From Oceania 6.0To/From Northeast Asia 5.0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 RPKs, billions COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 28. Middle East airlines will need 1,580new airplanes Market value: $260 billion2008-2027 747 and larger Twin-aisle Share of fleet Single-aisle Regional jets COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 29. North American air travel growth varies by market Added Traffic Annual 2007 traffic 2008 - 2027 growth % Within North America 2.8 To/From Europe 4.7 To/From Northeast Asia 4.0To/From Central America 3.9 To/From South America 6.2 To/From China 6.1 Region’s AverageTo/From Southeast Asia 7.6 Growth: 3.4% To/From Oceania 7.1 Region’s Annual GDP Growth: 2.5% To/From Middle East 5.9To/From Southwest Asia 4.8 To/From Africa 5.4 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 RPKs, billions COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 30. North American airlines will need8,550 new airplanes Market value: $740 billion2008-2027 747 and larger Twin-aisle Share of fleet Single-aisle Regional jets COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 31. One last thought Air travel is, and will continue to be, a highly valued and integral part of the social and economic fabric of our world Air travel is crucial to business, personal relationships, transporting goods and improving the standard of living around the world Today, the air transport industry supports (directly and indirectly) more than 32-million jobs... about 8% of World GDP* In 20 years, these economic benefits have the potential to more than double *The Economic and Social Benefits of Air Transport 2008, ATAG COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
  • 32. Muito obrigado! boeing.com/cmoCopyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARY

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