Tunisian Capital Markets Overview


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Tunisian Economy Overview
Tunisia Capital Markets Overview

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Tunisian Capital Markets Overview

  1. 1. TUNISIAN ECONOMY OVERVIEW Tunisia has successfully turmoil emanating from the opened-up to the global US and Europe in economy, maintaining September 2008. This was consistent levels of growth due to several factors and achieving an annual including: GDP, 2004 - 08 (%) average growth rate of 5.2% Tunisia does not have a for the 2005-2008 period. “sub-prime” problem Tunisia has grown as a Local banks have little 6.30% 6% modern Middle Income foreign exposure 5.50% Country, with a promising Foreign participation in the 5% role in providing high level stock market is “relatively services to the region and to low”, at some 28%. 4% Europe, in particular in health services, and has Given the country’s successfully invested in dependence on European infrastructure and Union for its exports, the real liberalization to foster the economy could not, development of a tourism however, escape the effects sector. Many reforms were of recession in Europe and 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009** recently implemented to US. As a result of recession promote private sector in Europe, Tunisia’s real development. Tunisia ranked GDP slowed down towards Source: National Institute of Statistics (INS) 73rd (out of 181 countries) in the end of 2008 (4.5%) and it *: Temporary data **: Likely data for 2007 the Ease of doing business is expected to slow further Indicator for 2009, up from as consequence of the st 81 in 2008, positioning the financial turmoil affecting country among the region’s Europe and the US (forecast Exports, 2005-08 ($ m illion) two best regional performers for 2009 is around 4%). with Egypt. This resulted Growth in the volume of 17 772 from reforms of the exports declined sharply in investment climate, including the second semester to 14 594 on starting a business, 1.5% (against 14% in 2007) getting credit and on the as exports of textiles and 11698 protection of investors. clothing as well as 10 231 Starting a business, closing automobile components fell a business, enforcing sharply in the last quarter of contracts, registering 2008. Fortunately, Foreign property, and dealing with direct investment increased certain aspects of licenses by 40% in 2008, easing are all generally easier in somewhat the financing Tunisia than elsewhere in needs emanating from the the Middle East and North sharp increase in the current Africa Region. The account deficit (-4.6%). 2005 2006 2007 2008 government is also rehabilitating and expanding Inflation Source: National Institute of Statistics (INS) industrial zones in different regions and is trying to Inflationary pressures eased integrate them with research at the end of 2008. institutes and laboratories in Consumer price inflation order to create “poles de trended upwards until mid- compétitivité” and further 2008 (5.5% in July 2008). boost foreign direct Inflation is expected to investment. decline from 5% in 2008 to 4% in 2009 and 3% in 2010. Macro economy and Global Financial Crisis Tunisia came strong into the global crisis and macroeconomic stability was relatively unaffected in the initial stages of the global financial crisis. The Tunisian economy was not significantly affected by the initial spread of financial The contents of this document are made by AMEN INVEST and are given for purely indicative purposes. The accuracy, completeness or relevance of the information 1 provided is not guaranteed although it has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable
  2. 2. CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW 2008 was an absolutely regulatory body charged with horrific year for the global overseeing the TSE, local markets, and it should come brokerages, deposit-taking as no surprise that the vast institutions and transfer COUNTRY INDEX 2008 PERFORMANCE majority of major market agents. The CMF have the indexes were down in 2008. responsibility of protecting TUNISIA TUNINDEX 10.65% Of all the stock markets shareholders and listing MOROCCO MASI -14% throughout the world, one companies from any managed to escape the fraudulent or manipulative EGYPT CASE 30 -57% negative effects of the market activities and the free crushing credit crisis and exchange of financial BAHRAIN BSE -34% global recession - Tunisia. information. DUBAI DFMGI -73% Classified as a “frontier” Started in 1998, the USA S&P 500 -38% capital market, the Tunis TUNINDEX is the exchange’s UK FTSE 100 -31% Stock Exchange (TSE) has first index linked to market shown a penchant for capitalisation with a reference FRANCE CAC 40 -42% avoiding the critical levels of base of 1000 dating to JAPAN NIKKEI 25 -40% volatility that have recently December 31, 1997. The distinguished many of its index is open to all listed Source : www.btflive.net peer exchanges in the stocks except investment Middle East and North Africa funds and currently tracks 44 (MENA) region. While equity companies. markets across the globe 2007 2008 took a fall in September At the conclusion of 2008, the TUNINDEX 2 614 2 892 2008, due largely to the finance sector’s share of the demise of Lehmann TSE’s market capitalisation BVMT 1 937 1 971 Brothers, the Tunisian was approximately 72%, at Equity Market managed to TND5.98 billion ($5 billion). Capitalisation ($ million) 4 907 6 241 regain its composure and Companies grouped within the ended 2008 up 10.65% for consumer services sector Volume ($ million) 688 1 586 the fifth consecutive year. came in second with 10% of market capital, followed by Listed Companies 51 52 The TSE was ranked third in consumer goods companies the world following peer with 9% and basic materials Source : www.bvmt.com frontier stock Markets Accra, companies with roughly 5%. Ghana and Quito, Ecuador. Furthermore, when compared to equity markets across the North Africa Region, the TSE stands out due to its lower price-to- earning ratios, solid dividend Index (points), 2003 - 08 yields and the low levels of capital saturation. 3 500 TUNINDEX Tunis Stock Exchange 3 000 Tunis Stock Exchange has 2 500 been created in 1969. In 1996, 2 000 TSE became a partner of the New York Stock exchange and 1 500 upgraded its trading platform to 1 000 NSC V900 system. Foreign portfolio investors are legally 500 able to hold up to 50% of any 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 equity listing. Source : www.bvmt.com The TSE featured 50 traded companies with an overall market capitalisation of approximately $6241 million. The financial Market Council (CMF) is the government The contents of this document are made by AMEN INVEST and are given for purely indicative purposes. The accuracy, completeness or relevance of the information 2 provided is not guaranteed although it has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable
  3. 3. CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW Recent Performance The Tunisian market place is of equity funds specialising attracting more foreign in the MENA region. From 2003 to 2007, TUNINDEX investors than ever before. The significant level of grew by a very respectable 94% While 2007 was exceptional foreign investor participation recording 2 614.07 points. ($1.7 billion; up 36% on in the IPOs of Poulina in The index reached as high as 2006 numbers) in terms of 2008 and Tunisie Profile 3418.4 points at the beginning Foreign Direct Investment, Aluminium (TPR) in 2007 of September. At its high in money continued to flow in demonstrates the important 2008, market capitalisation was the same impressive pace role foreign portfolios play in TND9.5 billion ($8 billion). But, (up 40%) over the first seven contributing new sources of due to the psychological months of 2008. liquidity to the Tunisian tremors caused by the demise Capital Market of Lehmann Brothers in mid- Foreign investors had a September 2008, the TSE fell steady appetite for buying 15.4% from its peak and lost Tunisian Stocks through July TND1.53 billion ($1.3 billion) in 2008. A sustained period of capitalisation. selling begun in September TUNINDEX (points), 2009 2008 and this pattern Significant listings continued through the 3 900 beginning of 2009, when buying and selling activities 3 700 TUNINDEX The total capitalisation of the TSE turned a major corner in were considerably closer to 3 500 2008 with the IPOs of two an equilibrium point. Despite 3 300 large-cap firms. this morose period for 3 100 In April 2008 Tunisia’s foreign portfolio investment, 2 900 Renault automobile it is nonetheless significant that the total share of 2 700 concession operator ARTES joined the exchange by capitalisation for foreign 2 500 issuing 30.18% of its total investors remained Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 capital. remarkably steady. While as In August 2008 Tunisia’s high as 28.1% according to most important private TSE statistics, foreign holding company, with a investor’s share of the Source : www.bvmt.com market cap of approximately market’s capital never $800 million, Poulina Group dropped lower than 24.7% in Holding, made its entrance December. Foreign with a highly enthusiastic participation levelled off at market reaction issuing 25.42% in January. TND99 million ($ 75 million). In fact, Tunisia is attracting Poulina offer increased the more foreigners for a Foreign Investment, 2009 (%) TSE’s market capitalisation number of reasons: by nearly TND1 billion ($840 Its fiscal advantages, million). which include no taxes on 25.42% dividends and capital gains Numerous incentives Its stability 25.07% Its potential, compared to 24.82% already exist for private 24.59% companies debating whether other Arab Markets to list. These include a 20% Unfortunately, there are 24.12% corporate tax rate, compared certain limitations for foreign to the normal 30% rate, for investors: the five years following a The potential size of company’s IPO. foreign investments, which are often too big for Tunisia The size of the ticket to Jan-09 f eb-09 M ar-09 Apr-09 M ay-09 Investors invest. There is not enough The Overall composition of big companies such as Source : www.bvmt.com TSE investors serves as a Poulina and ARTES particularly revealing The thin trading in Tunisia indicator for the market. Mostly of foreign portfolio Local Tunisian equity investors come from Gulf investors tend to be private and from Europe. Gulf individuals as opposed to investors first came in large institutional investors. numbers in 2006. After, European institutional investors followed the mould Foreign investors The contents of this document are made by AMEN INVEST and are given for purely indicative purposes. The accuracy, completeness or relevance of the information 3 provided is not guaranteed although it has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable
  4. 4. CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW 2008 market Overview Auto Manufacturers: the cost had sharply affected Outstanding Performance of the share value, SOTRAPIL ASSAD Component finished 2008 down 58%. 2009 Market Outlook The TUNINDEX ended 2008 up 10.7% at 2892 points. Despite facing tremendous The trend was bullish led by Supplier ASSAD turned in a Telecommunications: selling pressure during the big winners such as STAR, very positive performance of third and fourth quarter of ASTREE and ASSAD. 126% and has successfully SOTETEL was down with 2008, the TSE continues to The financial services sector exceeded its objectives shares dropping 57%. take back much of the ground recorded the best closing the year with a net Despite the optimistic lost during the tumult of 2008. performance with an profit multiplied by 3 business plan presented by increase of 57.23% of its compared to 2007. The other the management in TUNINDEX finished the index, followed by the companies from its sector 2007, planning a turnover of second quarter of 2009 with a distribution sector which rose reported big losses and TND56 million for 2008 27.14% gain. 55.22%. The banking sector ended the year with low instead of TND 26.5 million showed good results in 2008 performance of 1% for GIF, - in 2007, the company posted In addition, foreign investors despite the difficult global 3% for STEQ and -27% for a deeply red 2008 results, appear to come back into the economy, with a gain of STIP. leaving investors worry market over the course of 14.77%. about the goals set for the 2009. On the downside, consumer Pharmaceuticals: year 2008. goods sector registered the For the first two quarter of biggest slump, with a decline ADWYA recorded a positive Chemical industries: 2009 volumes for stocks, grew of 10.72%. performance of 90%. The to TND802 million ($603 increase of the share value The sector closed the year million) compared to TND685 Insurance: The Best is due to the good Business 2008 on a yield of 8.45% million ($515 million) a year Performing Sector Plan presented by the pulled down mainly by later and daily volumes rose management in 2008. For ALKIMIA. also from TND6.6 million ($5 The insurance sector was the first nine months of ALKIMIA ended the year million) to TND9 million ($6.7 the best performer in 2008, 2008, the total turnover of down 23%. This bad million). lead by ASTREE and STAR. the company rose by 17.8%. performance is explained by ASTREE, which doubled its SIPHAT, was a notable the loss of its biggest capital to TND20 million by decliner, with shares customer representing issuing Bonus Shares, dropping 20% on the year. approximately 60% of its recorded a performance of This is due to the decrease turnover. 172% and STAR gained of total sales of the company 166%, after the in the first nine months of Stocks Volumes, 2009 ($ million) announcement of its 2008. privatisation. Industrial Goods & 145 148 Leasing: A Defensive Sector Services: 103 Tunisie Leasing climbed SOTUVER ended 2008 up sharply closing the year up 42%. The company came 80 59%, reflecting the under the control of Bayahi 61 66 outperformance of the Group. company. ATL achieved a profit of 57% after a capital Distribution: rise amounted to TND7 million. CIL, Wifak and MAGASIN GENERALE gained nearly 115% after the Jan-09 feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Attijari LEASING gained 49%, 42% and 17%, announcement of the respectively. acquisition of Promogro. Source : www.bvmt.com This acquisition is a strategic Banks: Strong fundamentals decision. Indeed, the Daily Volumes, 2009 ($ million) additional activity will ATTIJARI BANK which consolidate the objectives of completed the first phase of attracting a foreign partner. 6.9 6.7 its recovery to overhaul its MONOPRIX finished 2008 portfolio of loans, reported a up 42%. 5.2 strong performance of 88%. Oil and gas: 4.0 AMEN BANK and UBCI 3.3 gained 29% each. 2.9 Concerning decliners, BH SOTRAPIL recorded the and STB were down, with largest decline of the year. shares dropping 4% and The abandonment of the 13% over the year. pipeline project Skhira-Sahel and lack of visibility about Jan-09 feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Source : www.bvmt.com The contents of this document are made by AMEN INVEST and are given for purely indicative purposes. The accuracy, completeness or relevance of the information 4 provided is not guaranteed although it has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable