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Community Economic Development in a Time of Change

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This presentation explores "big picture" demographic and economic trends as context for thinking about how Amherst and the Buffalo region might generate private investment in an era of fiscal ...

This presentation explores "big picture" demographic and economic trends as context for thinking about how Amherst and the Buffalo region might generate private investment in an era of fiscal scarcity.

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    Community Economic Development in a Time of Change Community Economic Development in a Time of Change Presentation Transcript

    • Community E C it Economic D l i Development t in a Time of Change Presentation to the Town of Amherst, NY October 19, 2010 David Rouse Principal, Principal Wallace Roberts & Todd
    • Agenda g • The Context – “Big picture” (national and global) trends – Trends in public financing and economic development • Successful Community Economic Development Programs – Community examples – Components • Implications for Amherst – How can Amherst and the Buffalo region generate investment through community economic development?
    • Big Picture Trends
    • Big Picture Trends Changing Demographics • The U.S population is increasing – 2008 Census Bureau estimate: 301.3 million – 2050 projection: 439 million / 46% increase (Census Bureau), 402 million / 32% increase (United Nations) 2050 100 Million+ 2008 Increase
    • Amherst & Regional Trends Population
    • Big Picture Trends Changing Demographics • The U.S population is becoming increasingly diverse – 2005 Census Bureau estimate: 45% of children under 5 belonged to minority groups – 2008 Census Bureau projection: The U S will become a “majorit Cens s B rea projection U.S. ill majority minority” country by 2042 – In U.S. cities such as Boston and New York, immigration has sustained population levels and increased economic vitality – In Canada, the foreign-born population of Vancouver is 39% and Toronto 49% %
    • Amherst & Regional Trends Diversity
    • Amherst & Regional Trends Immigration
    • Big Picture Trends Changing Demographics • The Baby Boomers and the Millennials are the two largest generations in U.S. history – Baby Boomers: 76 million born between 1946 and 1964 – Mill i l 78 million born between 1977 and 1996 Millennials: illi b b t d Baby Boomers Millennials
    • Big Picture Trends Changing Demographics • What are Baby Boomers and Millennials looking for in places to live, work, and play? – Smaller, more compact housing products – W lk bl urban places with amenities and things to d outside the Walkable, b l ih ii d hi do id h home One poll found that 77 percent of Americans born after 1981 want to live in an urban core. Another survey found that 71 percent of boomers placed walking distance y p p g to transit at the top of their list of housing demands. Alan Ehrenhalt, “Putting the Urban in Suburban,” Governing, March 9-10, 2009; quoted in William Lucy, Foreclosing the Dream, 2010 Lucy Dream
    • Amherst & Regional Trends Aging Population Amherst Buffalo
    • Big Picture Trends Changing Metropolitan Development Patterns • Foreclosure rates during the recession g have been higher in suburban /exurban areas than in cities This foreclosure pattern is…yet one more layer of evidence…(of) a shift in the momentum of metropolitan development – a revival of cities and a drawing back from the exurban fervor that drove so much development during the closing decades of the last century. y William Lucy, Foreclosing the Dream, 2010
    • Big Picture Trends Changing Metropolitan Development Patterns • Shift in market demand from drivable suburban to walkable urban • Exurban (fringe) development = the th next slum t l • Five types of walkable urban places – Traditional downtowns T di i l d – Downtown adjacents – Suburban town centers – Strip commercial redevelopments – Greenfields (lifestyle centers) Source: Christopher Leinberger
    • Big Picture Trends Walkable Urban Centers Traditional D T di i l Downtown: B ff l Buffalo Suburban Downtown: S f d CT S b b D Stamford, Strip Redevelopment: Belmar, CO Lifestyle Center
    • Amherst & Regional Trends Commuting
    • Big Picture Trends Peak Oil: Declining Supply Rising Demand Supply,
    • Big Picture Trends The Restoration Economy Restorative development is a mode of economic activity that returns property, structures, or objects to an earlier condition, transforms them into a healthier and/or more functional condition, or replaces an unsalvageable structure without consuming more l d ih i land. Storm Cunningham, The Restoration Economy
    • Big Picture Trends The Restoration Economy • Trimodal Development Perspective (three natural lif t l lifecycles) l ) – New development – Maintenance (built environment) / conservation (natural environment) – Restorative development Restorative development (restoration of the built and natural environments) is the fastest growing of those three modes, and it will soon be the largest of the three realms of development. Storm Cunningham, The Restoration Economy
    • Big Picture Trends A Slow Recovery from the Great Recession • Indicators favor a U-shaped recovery after a stimulus-fueled spike up in the last quarter of 2009 – Weak, below-trend growth for a number of years – C Consensus estimate for 2011 growth in GDP = 2.4% (The Economist, ti t f th i 2 4% (Th E it October 2010) US GDP GROWTH RATE ?
    • Big Picture Trends A Slow Recovery from the Great Recession The ULI October Real Estate Barometer is “laced with fluctuations in both directions, directions but even the most positive gains are still very weak when compared to historic trends.” COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT PROPERTY
    • Big Picture Trends A Slow Recovery from the Great Recession HOUSING Source: The ULI Real Estate Barometer, October 2010
    • Big Picture Trends A Slow Recovery from the Great Recession • Employment growth will continue to lag the recovery • Sept. 2010: +64,000 private sector jobs, -159,000 public sector jobs (includes -76,000 Census jobs) • Local governments face an era of fiscal scarcity – 88% of city finance officers surveyed in 2009 reported not being able to meet current year’s financial needs year s – Depressed property values will continue to depress real estate tax revenues – As stimulus spending winds down, federal and state deficit cutting will reduce transfers to local governments Sources: S Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm, Crisis Economics (2010) Lincoln Land Use Institute, Municipal Revenues & Land Policies (2010)
    • Trends in Public Sector Financing and Community Economic Development
    • Trends in Public Sector Financing Changing Revenue Sources • Property taxes p y • Intergovernmental transfers – Federal – State • Local sales tax • Local income / wage tax – Resident – Commuter Source: Lincoln Land Use Institute, Municipal Revenues & Land Policies (2010)
    • Trends in Public Sector Financing Changing Revenue Sources • Capital financing of infrastructure – Bonds (general obligation, revenue) – Privatization (design/build/operate/maintain) • Sub-municipal financing techniques – Business improvement districts – Tax increment financing – Community facility districts Source: Lincoln Land Use Institute, Municipal Revenues & Land Policies (2010)
    • Trends in Public Sector Financing Changing Municipal Revenue Sources • Decreased reliance on: – Property taxes (long-term trend) – Intergovernmental transfers (reduced state aid, avoidance of / skepticism about federal funding) • Increased reliance on: – Other taxes (e g sales income, gasoline) depending on anti-tax (e.g., sales, income anti tax sentiment – Charges for services / fees – Public / private partnerships, privatization agreements – Other financing techniques (e.g., TIF, BIDs) Source: Lincoln Land Use Institute, Municipal Revenues & Land Policies (2010)
    • Trends in Public Sector Financing Federal Funding Programs • American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 y – Included $90 billion for investments in clean energy – Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery (TIGER): $2 1 billion made available so far for m ltimodal $2.1 a ailable multimodal transportation projects • HUD/DOT/EPA Sustainable Communities Partnership S t i bl C iti P t hi – June 2009 agreement to coordinate federal housing, transportation, and environmental investments • These two programs reflect likely future direction of g federal funding – Surface Transportation Act Reauthorization is pending
    • Trends in Public Sector Financing Sustainable Communities Planning Grants • $150 million made available in HUD FY 2010 Budget • Two Types of Grants – Sustainable Communities Regional Planning Grants: $98 million awards to 45 regions on October 14, 2010 – Community Challenge Planning Grants: up to $75 million in grant awards to communities currently pending • Future funding rounds anticipated
    • Trends in Community Economic Development Evolving Approaches from: • … a wholesale approach (offsetting capital costs by providing land and infrastructure), to… p g ) • …a retail approach (reducing the cost of doing business via tax abatements), to… • …a systems approach (addressing quality of life issues to increase appeal to business owners, workers, and entrepreneurs) Adapted from Elaine Carmichael, Principal, Economic Stewardship, Inc.
    • Trends in Community Economic Development Evolving Approaches Innovation economics is an economic doctrine that reformulates the traditional model of economic growth so that knowledge, technology, entrepreneurship, and innovation are positioned at the center of the model… Source: Wikipedia
    • Trends in Community Economic Development Evolving Approaches • Community revitalization rules (Storm y ( Cunningham) – Rewealth: base our economy on renewing what we have (restorative development) – Integrate restoration of natural, built, and socioeconomic assets i i t – Engage all stakeholders in the revitalized future of their community
    • Trends in Community Economic Development Evolving Approaches • Community revitalization processes ( y p (Storm Cunningham) – Establish a shared vision of the community’s future based on renewal – Embed renewal in the community’s culture through policies, regulations, support programs, th h li i l ti t incentives, etc. – Partner to build the critical mass of resources and knowledge to accomplish the vision
    • Trends in Community Economic Development Evolving Approaches • Renewal engine: a nonprofit organization g p g to promote community revitalization on an ongoing basis – Forms the renewal vision and strategy – Fosters a renewal culture that attracts reinvestment i – Establishes bonds of trust and shared values needed for public and private entities to work together
    • Successful Community Economic Development Programs
    • Community Example Chattanooga, Chattanooga TN • The legacy of an industrial city – The nation’s dirtiest air in 1969 per the federal government – Socioeconomic divisions / challenges • Response – Citizen task force appointed to oversee cleanup (Air Pollution Control Board) – 1984 community visioning process (Vision 2000) – Public/private partnership formed p p p (Chattanooga Venture)
    • Community Example Chattanooga, Chattanooga TN Results • Dramatically improved air quality • $120 million riverfront / downtown revitalization • 3 national awards for outstanding livability in 10 years
    • Community Examples Branding Strategies • Austin, TX: Live Music Capital of the , p World • Indianapolis, IN: Amateur Sports Capital of the World • Chautauqua County, NY: World’s Learning Center
    • Community Example Cumberland, Cumberland MD
    • Community Example Cumberland, Cumberland MD • Key road, railroad, and canal junction during the 1800s; was the second largest MD city after Baltimore • The “Queen City” developed as a manufacturing powerhouse during the 19th and 20th centuries but declined after WWII due g to industrial plant closures • In 1987 the Kelly Springfield Tire Plant was the last major manufacturing plant to close (relocated to Akron, Ohio) • The City’s population has declined from 39,483 residents in 1940 census to 20,495 (estimate) in 2008 t 20 495 ( ti t ) i
    • Community Example Cumberland, Cumberland MD Kelly Springfield Tire Plant to Riverside Industrial Park
    • Community Example Cumberland, Cumberland MD • In 1993 Canal Place (historic terminus of the C&O Canal) was designated Maryland’s first state heritage area Maryland s • In 1996 the City adopted a new Comprehensive Plan with a vision statement to guide revitalization efforts
    • Community Example Cumberland, Cumberland MD • 2005 Sustainable Economic Development Strategic Plan defines target niches related to C mberland’s assets Cumberland’s • Priority business / industry sectors – Tourism – Restoration / rehabilitation (built, natural environments) • Priority social / occupational groups – Technological entrepreneurs – A ti t Artists
    • Community Example Hamilton, Hamilton ONT • 504,559 residents in 2006 – 20% foreign born; half of recent immigrants from Asia and Middle East • Traditional economy based on heavy manufacturing (known as the Steel Capital of Canada) – Economy has shifted towards services, especially health sciences, over the last decade • Rated as 6th best place to invest in Canada (2nd in Ontario) by Real Estate Investment Network (REIN Canada)
    • Community Example Hamilton, Hamilton ONT • Comprehensive development strategy builds on strengths – Four-tiered transportation hub – Manufacturing excellence – Reputation for educational quality p q y • Four fundamental principles: innovation, diversification, entrepreneurship, and triple bottom line • Quality of life is a key focus area to attract business as well as the “best and brightest” employees and citizens
    • Community Example Hamilton, Hamilton ONT • McMaster University – Health science, automotive technology, and materials and manufacturing research and development – McMaster Innovation Park • City Planning and Economic Development Department – “One-Stop Shop” for three key business services: Small Business Enterprise Centre, Business Facilitation (municipal planning process guidance), Licensing and Zoning – Downtown and Community Renewal Division Programs
    • Components of Successful Economic Development Programs • Vision – Define an economic position / niche based on assets • Strategy gy – Develop a game plan to realize the vision • Capacity – Leverage resources through partnerships across sectors (public, private, institutional / nonprofit) • Program – Implement the vision and strategy through coordinated use of economic development tools
    • Examples of Economic Development Tools p p • Data – Inventories of available properties • Development ordinances / codes • Marketing – Branding and outreach to targeted groups • Infrastructure – Investments in roads, utility, telecommunications, etc. • Financing – TIF, BID, NYS Main Street Program, etc. • Incentives
    • The Role of Incentives • A useful tool but only p of the total package that attracts y part p g businesses (typically not the deciding factor) • Be aware of downsides – Costs of subsidies provided can exceed benefits in terms of jobs, tax f f f revenues generated – Subsidies can put existing businesses at a competitive disadvantage p g p g – Jobs created often go to outsiders rather than current residents – Businesses can leave when subsidies expire
    • Implications for Amherst
    • Implications for Amherst: Changes Over Time p g • Amherst Community Development Plan (1975) – “A growing suburban community, recipient of metropolitan i b b it i i t f t lit expansion…” • Bicentennial Comprehensive Plan (2003) – “Become a model for effective reinvestment and revitalization of older neighborhoods and commercial areas…”
    • Implications for Amherst: Discussion How can Amherst and the Buffalo region generate investment through community economic development? g y p David Rouse, Wallace Roberts & Todd drouse@ph.wrtdesign.com 215-772-1465 Wallace Roberts & Todd, LLC