The Solar Cell Story Why invest in the photovoltaic (PV) industry? by Wolfgang P. Prenosil  MSc MBA Vigorous Co., Ltd. Ban...
The compelling story, facts: <ul><li>Solar cell production has grown worldwide more than 40% annually since 1999. </li></u...
Market shares per region in MW (Mega Watt) for 2006
Meaning <ul><li>Japan is the undisputed leader in solar cell production, and it exports most of their cells. </li></ul><ul...
Meaning <ul><li>Global solar cell production capacity is now more than 2.5 GW, growing more than 40% annually. </li></ul><...
Capacities of major Polysilicon producers (Tonnes Per Annum) 2006 <ul><li>Hemlock 10’000 </li></ul><ul><li>Wacker Polysili...
Meaning <ul><li>50K Tonnes Per Annum wafer production capacity (2007). </li></ul><ul><li>22% YoY growth in wafer productio...
Prices <ul><li>Average selling price of Si to large wafer producers is US$ 70/kg, increase of 17% YoY (2007). </li></ul><u...
Trends In 1997 typical wafer thickness was 380 micro meters. Today it is have that thickness, contributing to less Si mate...
Trends <ul><li>Nano technology is used to produce thin film cells (2 micro meters thickness). </li></ul><ul><li>Output pow...
Trends <ul><li>Exponential growth mainly due to European market support programs (feed-in laws): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Swi...
Feed-in pricing 20 20 25 20 20 - 400 150 1’200 - 1 1 40-50 Greece Cap [MW] Duration [years] 12 5 30-40 France 63 20 22-41 ...
Investment <ul><li>Typical solar cell production line (30 MW) turnkey Euro 12m. ROI in less than 2 years. </li></ul><ul><l...
Proposition <ul><li>I am looking for investors who want to get a piece of the action in the PV industry. </li></ul><ul><li...
Proposition <ul><li>I can bring industry knowledge, such as </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Equipment manufacturer, </li></ul></ul><...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

The Solar Cell Story_032008

1,352 views
1,240 views

Published on

A look at how the solar cell markets are evolving (growth, supply/ demand, countries, markets, investments).

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,352
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

The Solar Cell Story_032008

  1. 1. The Solar Cell Story Why invest in the photovoltaic (PV) industry? by Wolfgang P. Prenosil MSc MBA Vigorous Co., Ltd. Bangkok, Thailand M: +668-1408-6698 Email: [email_address] www.linkedin.com/in/vigorousasia
  2. 2. The compelling story, facts: <ul><li>Solar cell production has grown worldwide more than 40% annually since 1999. </li></ul><ul><li>The world’s top ten solar cell manufacturers have experienced hyper-growth in 2006: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Suntech Power (CN) 120% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SolarWorld (DE) 107% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Motech Industries (TW) 70% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Q-Cells (DE) 53% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Kyocera (JP) 27% </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Market shares per region in MW (Mega Watt) for 2006
  4. 4. Meaning <ul><li>Japan is the undisputed leader in solar cell production, and it exports most of their cells. </li></ul><ul><li>Germany & Rest of Europe follow closely, wherby they sell their solar cells domestically, world’s biggest market. </li></ul><ul><li>China is already number three (!!), while a majority of their products are exported. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Meaning <ul><li>Global solar cell production capacity is now more than 2.5 GW, growing more than 40% annually. </li></ul><ul><li>Expected to reach 85 GW (30x today's) by 2015. </li></ul><ul><li>Given this tremendous growth there is a problem of silicon wafer supply (feedstock). A 30 MW production line produces 20-25K solar cells per day. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Capacities of major Polysilicon producers (Tonnes Per Annum) 2006 <ul><li>Hemlock 10’000 </li></ul><ul><li>Wacker Polysilicon 6’600 </li></ul><ul><li>REC 6’000 </li></ul><ul><li>Tokuyama 5’400 </li></ul><ul><li>MEMC 4’000 </li></ul><ul><li>Mitsubishi 2’860 </li></ul><ul><li>Sumitomo 900 </li></ul>
  7. 7. Meaning <ul><li>50K Tonnes Per Annum wafer production capacity (2007). </li></ul><ul><li>22% YoY growth in wafer production capacity (2007). </li></ul><ul><li>Over 55% of Silicon (Si) usage worldwide is already taken by solar cells (2007). </li></ul><ul><li>400K Tonnes Per Annum wafer production capacity by 2015 realistic. </li></ul>
  8. 8. Prices <ul><li>Average selling price of Si to large wafer producers is US$ 70/kg, increase of 17% YoY (2007). </li></ul><ul><li>Average purchase price of Si for solar cell manufacturers is US$ 103/kg, increase of 30% YoY (2007). </li></ul><ul><li>It is expected that Polysilicon supply/ demand will balance out sometime in 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Average solar module (end product) price Euro 3/ Watt for mono-/ poly-cristalline (15-16% efficiency). </li></ul><ul><li>Average thin-film module (end product) price Euro 2.5/ Watt (10-12% efficiency). </li></ul>
  9. 9. Trends In 1997 typical wafer thickness was 380 micro meters. Today it is have that thickness, contributing to less Si material utilization. Ultra-thin wafers (75 to 100 micro meters thickness) are currently used for satellites.
  10. 10. Trends <ul><li>Nano technology is used to produce thin film cells (2 micro meters thickness). </li></ul><ul><li>Output power is 50% higher compared to amorphous silicon solar cells. </li></ul><ul><li>Module efficiency is 10% (versus 17%). </li></ul><ul><li>Shortage of high quality silicon (99.999999%), therefore it is important to develop Silicon-less, high-efficiency cells. </li></ul>
  11. 11. Trends <ul><li>Exponential growth mainly due to European market support programs (feed-in laws): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Slowenia, Latvia, Austria, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Turkey, Ireland, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, France, Portugal. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Where is the USA? </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Feed-in pricing 20 20 25 20 20 - 400 150 1’200 - 1 1 40-50 Greece Cap [MW] Duration [years] 12 5 30-40 France 63 20 22-41 Spain 1 1 31-45 Portugal 12 5 36-49 Italy 750 750 38-49 Germany 2006 2005 Tariff [Euro ct/kWh] Annual Market [MW] Feed-in law Country
  13. 13. Investment <ul><li>Typical solar cell production line (30 MW) turnkey Euro 12m. ROI in less than 2 years. </li></ul><ul><li>Trend is to build 50 MW lines. </li></ul><ul><li>Investment in Si-wafer production lines (feedstock) are much, much higher (US$ 100-150m). ROI in less than 5 years. </li></ul>
  14. 14. Proposition <ul><li>I am looking for investors who want to get a piece of the action in the PV industry. </li></ul><ul><li>It may be helping a solar cell production company to expand (typically they do not have the money to secure 3- or 5-year wafer supplier contracts). </li></ul><ul><li>Build a new solar cell production company. </li></ul><ul><li>Build a wafer production factory. </li></ul>
  15. 15. Proposition <ul><li>I can bring industry knowledge, such as </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Equipment manufacturer, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar cell manufacturer, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing Execution System (MES) solutions, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Process & manufacturing engineers, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sales, marketing & training, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CRM/ ERP software solutions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>to the table. </li></ul>

×