The Green Bay SagaResearch for Management of a Freshwater EstuaryEmeritus Professor H.J. “Bud” HarrisUniversity of Wisconsin-Green Bay& Paul A. Wozniak-river historian

GREEN BAYWhere in the world is Green Bay, Wisconsin?MADISON

Green Bay drainage basinInputs 25% of Lake Michigan’s water40,500 sq kmLand uses: Forest & agriculture Six major rivers

Inputs 25% of Lake Michigan’s water

40,500 sq km

Land uses: Forest & agriculture

Six major rivers

Green Bay waters of Lake MichiganLength:190 kmWidth: 37 kmArea: 4,250 sq kmDepth: 20 metersDeepest = 53 metersChemistry: steep N-S trophic gradientBiology: High primary and secondary production 60% of Lake Michigan’s commercial catch

Runoff varies with land useSub-basin of Lower Fox River52% Ag/Rural29% Urban/Dev.10% Forest4% Wetland

52% Ag/Rural

29% Urban/Dev.

10% Forest

4% Wetland

Timeline of Environmental Decline and Recovery for the Fox River/Green BayPeak #paper mills 1870 Chemical Era post 1945 1970s to Present1980s to PresentFur Era?Fish Era1700’s to 1800’sMgt of NonPoint Source PollutionLumber EraPCB Remediation and Point Source Control1800’s to 1900’sMax Cut 1870 Industrial and Agricultural EraPresentEnvironmental DeclineEnvironmental RecoveryChemical EraBOD Waste Load Allocation 1970’s

1920’sCitizen groups organize for changes after massive fish kills and river stink increases1st statewide water pollution survey of major rivers in19251927 report publishedRiver ice harvest ends due to gross filthBut whose pollution is to blame? Canneries, creameries, foundries?

1927:What was the cause of the fish kills? Low dissolved oxygen

1930s1938 water quality study of Green Bay reported 90% of BOD loading from pulp-paper millsBlue-green algae linked to organic and nutrient discharge of Fox RiverBut which nutrients?

Blue-green algae Aphanizomenon (# per L @ 6ft)Green Bay 1938-39

1940’s/1950’sFreshwater “dead zone” persists Commercial fisheries decline Green Bay (lake herring)Lake Michigan (lake trout) Poor water quality closes city swimming beach in Green Bay permanently Little statutory authority to respond to deteriorating conditions!!!

Benthic surveys: Hexagenia1938 : 16 of 51 stations1952 : 1 of 27 stations (Surber & Cooley)1956 : 1 of 99 stations (Balch, industry-state survey)1967 : 0 of 73stations (Howmiller & Beaton)

Policymaking and enforcement1972 – US Clean Water Act Amendments1972 –Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between US-Canada1974 – International Joint Commission names Green Bay a problem spot on Great LakesSenator Muskie 1972

Major questions of 1970-7314 Sea Grant projects on Bay, most ‘observational’“Is the patient already dead?”What are the nutrient inputs to Bay?What are the levels of Nitrogen-fixation in Bay and are they related to algal blooms?Are there organic chemicals with unknown but potentially dangerous impacts?Do people who use the bay know about the pollution? Do swimmer decisions on where to swim correlate with health risk data?Does the local economy really need a port for large ships (with associated dredging)?

Chemical correlates of water mass movement Modlin & Beaton, 1970Arnsbach & Ragotzkie, 1970Conductivity distribution

1970’s: Early modeling in anticipation of new rulesLate 60s: WI begins modeling effort BOD absorption Fox River onlyFirst EPA model tried but found inappropriate for Fox River1973-74: Data collection to calibrate QUAL models of (O’Connor, Manhattan College, NYC) Fox River BOD wasteload allocation for permits

1970s: Paper industry & wastewater treatment plants install equipment

Average Total Discharge of BOD Material to the Lower Fox River and Summer DO Averaged from 8 Sites Across the Lower BayFrom State of the Bay Report, 1990

Year Species First Caught in Lamprey Trap at the De Pere Dam

Parallel efforts 1978-86:research & planning for implementationGLERR : Great Lakes Ecosystem Rehabilitation & Restorationecosystem researchUnderstanding structure & function of “ecosystems green”ecosystemrehabilitationHolistic approach Identify critical stressorsBiophysical dimensionsSocioeconomic context

1978 GB Research Workshop”blueprint” to guide research agenda for 80sTrophic interactions: Paul Sager Environmental Contaminants & Human Health: Anders AndrenWater Movement & Mass Transport: Clifford MortimerInfluences of Land Use: Daniel BromlyWater Use Implications: Jack Day“Green Bay Research Workshop Proceedings” WIS-SG-78-234

Blueprint-recommended research priorities* led to 25 studies over 8 yrs, $2.1 millionFisheries (stock assessment) 31%Physics/Chemistry (water mass movement, transport) 30%Trophic (interactions, dynamics) 18%Watersheds (runoff, land use-remote sensing) 7%Outreach 10%Socioeconomics (people issues) 4%

Designing a plan for rehabilitation of Green Bay-Great Lakes Ecosystem Restoration & RehabilitationGreen Bay I - 1979Green Bay II - 1980Green Bay III - 1981

Designing a plan for rehabilitationGreen Bay I – 1979Ranking critical stressorsGreen Bay II – 1980Defining elements of rehabilitationTechnicalSocioeconomicinstitutionalGreen Bay III – 1981Structuring the planDigraph of Green Bay stressors

Apply 8 yrs of research and GLERR experience1984: Wisconsin ordered by EPA to act on AOC’s via Remedial Action Plan (RAP)GB is 1 of 42 RAPs in Great LakesWDNR asks UW-Sea Grant for help on RAP1986: Workshop integrates Sea Grant research and GLERR management experience for RAPOrganized by WDNR’s Llewellyn & HarrisCoupling Ecosystem Science with Management: A Great Lakes Perspective from Lake Michigan, USA. Environmental Management 11(5): 619-625

1986: GBMSD starts monitoring Bay 16 sites, 9 parameters

“Take action” = RAPRemedial Action Plan (RAP)Based on prior work for GLFC and GLERR1987 Key Actions identified by Technical Advisory CommitteesLIST OF 100+ POSSIBLE ACTIONSREDUCED TO 11 KEY ACTIONS “RAP Update”1993

RAP High Priority Key Actions, 1987 Eliminate Toxicity of Industrial and Municipal Point Source DischargesReduce Availability of Toxic Chemicals from Contaminated SedimentsReduce Phosphorus Inputs to the River and Bay from Point and Nonpoint SourcesReduce Input of Sediment and Suspended SolidsCreate an Institutional Structure for Plan ImplementationIncrease Public Awareness of, Participation In and Support for River and Bay Clean Up

1988: Rising concern about PCBs and other toxicsPCB impact on birds supported by evidenceGreen Bay RAP first to be approved by IJC GB Mass Balance Study creates model with potential application to Great Lakes management

Green Bay Mass Balance Study1989-90: USEPA & WDNR-sponsoredCoupling river-to-bay transport modelsPlanning 1988, data collection starts 1989Multi-agency, $13 millionAssess feasibility of mass balanceCalibrate model for Green BayList PCB sources, rank prioritiesImprove methodology for mass balance studies

Sources and Fate of Toxic SubstancesStart with inventory, leads to Green Bay Mass Balance StudyVictor Bierman, Univ of Notre DameJoseph DePinto, Univ of BuffaloThomas Young, Clarkson UniversityPaul Rogers, Limno-Tech, Inc.Role of Mass Balance Modeling in Research and Management of Toxic Chemicals in the Great Lakes: The Green Bay Mass Balance Study, Great Lakes Research Review, July 1994

Victor Bierman, Univ of Notre Dame

Joseph DePinto, Univ of Buffalo

Thomas Young, Clarkson University

Paul Rogers, Limno-Tech, Inc.

Ecological Risk Assessment 1991 – Ranking Stressors on GB Ecosystem Values and Services

1999: Four action prioritiespre-climate change Remediate contaminated sedimentsReduce nutrients and solids loadingProtect wetlands & ecological servicesPrevent further exotic species introduction

2003: Lower Fox River Watershed Monitoring ProgramMulti-year water monitoring & assessment programEstablished in 2003Connects university and agency scientists with teachers and their students

Multi-year water monitoring & assessment program

Established in 2003

Connects university and agency scientists with teachers and their students

March Snowmelt2004: Loads are seasonal and event drivenLoads are seasonal and event driven.During dry years, 45-65% of annual load occurred in March.

2007: Future basin-wide load reduction scenarios built on SWAT model supported by robust monitoring. Laura Blake and Sandra Brown, The Cadmus Group, Inc., and others, 2007.

How has research informed management?