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On scenario thinking
On scenario thinking
On scenario thinking
On scenario thinking
On scenario thinking
On scenario thinking
On scenario thinking
On scenario thinking
On scenario thinking
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On scenario thinking

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  • 1. what if ……on scenario thinking
  • 2. scenario thinking why & when?• setting strategic direction• catalyze bold action• accelerate collaborative learning• alignment & visioning
  • 3. scenarios basic principles• re-perception• the status quo is not an option• understand and manage uncertainty• the long view• outside-in thinking• multiple perspectives
  • 4. scenarios conditions for success• openness for multiple perspectives & for challenging common assumptions• positioned to change in a meaningful way• have a well-positioned leader for the process• willingness to commit the necessary resources
  • 5. on scenario building 5 conditions for scenarios to be useful and credible:• relevance• coherence• plausibility• importance• transparency
  • 6. scenarios & strategiesattitudes toward corresponding correspondingthe future scenarios strategiespassive none go with the flowreactive none adaptivepreactive trend-based preventiveproactive desirable innovative alternatives
  • 7. scenario planning the usual steps are:• systems analysis• retrospective analysis• actors‘ strategies• scenario drafting
  • 8. scenario planning• identify the focal issue, question or decision• pinpoint the key forces in the micro-environment• determine the driving forces (drivers) in the macro- environment• rank by order of importance and uncertainty• choose the „logics“ or rationale behind the scenarios (axes)• flesh out the scenarios• consider the implications of those scenarios• select the „signposts“ or leading indicators
  • 9. scenarios• Michel Godet: Creating Futures. Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (2001)• What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits (GBN 2004)

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