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There is much talk of ‘peak oil’ and ‘environmental pollution’, but almost nothing said of ‘peak population’.
The map that is in the background to these slides shows population movementsfrom the United Kingdom of those currently ali...
Year 0Go back in time 2000 years and this is how human beings were distributed globally.Here area is drawn in proportion t...
Year 1500500 years ago almost none of these countries existed. Note how large Africa was before mass slavery.
Year 1900One hundred years ago European population peaked, 24 years after condoms were widely publicised.
Year 1960Fifty years ago the contraceptive pill was first used in affluent countries. Everywhere population growth was slo...
Year 2002Eight years ago a majority of people in the world were living in countries with below-replacement fertility.
Year 2050In just over forty years time the world population is predicted by the UN to start declining.This is where people...
Year 2300Africa continues to grow until 2300 while worldwide population falls according to the UN central projections.
For the first time since plague world population is about to shrink: So it does quickly in Europe
Year 1900: Wealth and Condoms      Population Peak in Europe: Falling fertility since 1877This is how people were distribu...
Year 1960: The Pill      Final baby boomThe 1960s baby boom, the children of the 1946 boom, the grandchildren of the 1919 ...
Year 2002: Nowadays      Diminishing Europe...Today Europe relies on immigration to maintain population, services and its ...
Year 2050: World Peak Population      ...and expanding AfricaEven with continued immigration at current levels Europe will...
Year 2300: Furthest Predictions      Global StabilityIt is a waste of built infrastructure to plan for Europe to shrink. T...
The United Kingdom is currently home to 1% of the world’s adults but only half a percent of children.
A Children’s World      Map of the World’s ChildrenThere are two billion children in the world – these are future carers o...
An aged World      Map of the 100 year oldsThe very oldest people are concentrated in just a few of the richest countries ...
Future population balance will depend primarily on population migration.
International ImmigrantsThis maps shows where all the people who have crossed international borders since birth now live.
International EmigrantsThis map shows where all the people who have crossed international borders since birth were born.
Net ImmigrationThis map shows how many extra people those countries which gain from migration receive.
Net EmigrationThis map shows how many people those countries which lose population are losing.
Each country in the world experiences a different story that reflects its history
Where they are      The world’s ‘real’ population distributionWithin each country people concentrate in particular areas a...
Where they are      UK’s ‘real’ population distributionWithin the United Kingdom in recent decades population growth has b...
High density living is rare      Administrative extent of major urban areas in BritainOnly eight urban areas in Great Brit...
Sprawl: Encouraged by infrastructure      Major road network in BritainLack of investment in rail and too much motorway bu...
Southern population concentration      Bankers in BritainThe spatial concentration of a bloated finance industry skewed po...
Areas currently losing out in Britain      Labour votes at the 2005 general electionThe places that lost out most in recen...
Born abroad      7.5% of people living in Britain were born abroad                          http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared...
Going abroad      More than 400,000 people left the UK in 2007In equal number to those arriving, Britains move abroad. Peo...
Migration Patterns      Migration flows from and to the United Kingdom in 2006           Emigrants from the UK           I...
The United Kingdom      A crossroad in the world’s demographic changeAmong the countries in Europe, the United Kingdom cur...
Credits    •    Slideshow based on a talk given at the         The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution         Stu...
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Preparing for "Peak Population": How the UK fiths within world demography

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Talk by Danny Dorling and Benjamin Hennig given at the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, London, 4th February 2010.

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  • There is much talk of ‘peak oil’ and ‘environmental pollution’, but almost nothing said of ‘peak population’.
  • The map that is in the background to these slides shows population movements from the United Kingdom of those currently alive.
  • Go back in time 2000 years and this is how human beings were distributed globally. Here area is drawn in proportion to population.
  • 500 years ago almost none of these countries existed. Note how large Africa was before mass slavery.
  • One hundred years ago European population peaked, 24 years after condoms were widely publicised.
  • Fifty years ago the contraceptive pill was first used in affluent countries. Everywhere population growth was slowing.
  • Eight years ago a majority of people in the world were living in countries with below-replacement fertility.
  • In just over forty years time the world population is predicted by the UN to start declining. This is where people will be then.
  • Africa continues to grow until 2300 while worldwide population falls according to the UN central projections.
  • For the first time since plague world population is about to shrink: So it does quickly in Europe
  • This is how people were distributed in Europe when population growth was highest, and began to slow
  • The 1960s baby boom, the children of the 1946 boom, the grandchildren of the 1919 boom, are the last.
  • Today Europe relies on immigration to maintain population, services and its plurality.
  • Even with continued immigration at current levels Europe will shrink in its global population share
  • It is a waste of built infrastructure to plan for Europe to shrink. The future will probably look very different to this.
  • The United Kingdom is currently home to 1% of the world’s adults but only half a percent of children.
  • There are two billion children in the world – these are future carers of the old
  • The very oldest people are concentrated in just a few of the richest countries – often those with the least children
  • Future population balance will depend primarily on population migration.
  • This maps shows where all the people who have crossed international borders since birth now live.
  • This map shows where all the people who have crossed international borders since birth were born.
  • This map shows how many extra people those countries which gain from migration receive.
  • This map shows how many people those countries which lose population are losing.
  • Each country in the world experiences a different story that reflects its history
  • Within each country people concentrate in particular areas and are leaving other parts
  • Within the United Kingdom in recent decades population growth has been constrained to the south of England.
  • Only eight urban areas in Great Britain are substantially built up – at much lower density than most major European cities
  • Lack of investment in rail and too much motorway building has increased social polarised urban sprawl
  • The spatial concentration of a bloated finance industry skewed population growth towards the south in England as well as Wales and Scotland.
  • The places that lost out most in recent years in terms of wealth, health, population influx and now (un)employment were those in the north and in inner cities.
  • Parts of Britain are now home to one of the most diverse pluralities of people in Europe.
  • In equal number to those arriving, Britains move abroad. People leave in greater numbers during recessions.
  • The environmental impact of emigrants is much greater than immigrants – in total.
  • Among the countries in Europe, the United Kingdom currently has fewer residents born abroad than Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland – and also fewer than Canada, the USA, Australia and New Zealand.
  • Slideshow based on a talk given by Danny Dorling at The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution Study on the Environmental Impacts of Demographic Change in the UK All maps created by the Worldmapper team, most of which can be found online at www.worldmapper.org Slides created by Benjamin Hennig Further reading suggestions: Magnason, A. S. (2008). Dreamland: A Self-Help Manual for a Frightened Nation. London, Citizen Press Ltd. http://www.dustormagic.net/EqualityWhen/SocialBarriersToSustainability.html http://www.dustormagic.net/NOII/TooManyOfWhomJan10.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/apr/20/food-carbon-emissions “ Now, for the first time in human history, a majority of people worldwide can read what you write. Some five out of every six children in the world are now taught to read and write to a degree that only a minority of their parents were; a majority of their children will probably have internet access. A hundred million young adults worldwide are now allowed to study in the hallowed halls of universities each year. Education may still be hugely unjust in how it is distributed and may be in some ways becoming more unjustly allocated, but there are many more people alive in the world today who have been given the freedom to learn right through to college. This is not just many more than before, it is many more than all those before combined; more humans alive today have been to university than all the human beings who have ever gone. The forebears of today’s university graduates almost all became part of a tiny elite, in some way governing others and being rewarded with riches as a result. Only a very small minority of today’s university graduates can become rich; there are simply far too many now for all but a tiny fraction to be very wealthy, or to have much power, or both. Why should we expect the rest to accept this situation placidly? Fortunately, and far from coincidently, human population growth is peaking at exactly the same time as our literacy and understanding explodes. It is not hard to be pessimistic, but it is also not hard to be an optimist too given the circumstances we now find ourselves in.” ( From Daniel Dorling: "Injustice: why social inequality persists, Bristol: Policy Press, April 2010“ )
  • Transcript of "Preparing for "Peak Population": How the UK fiths within world demography"

    1. 1. There is much talk of ‘peak oil’ and ‘environmental pollution’, but almost nothing said of ‘peak population’.
    2. 2. The map that is in the background to these slides shows population movementsfrom the United Kingdom of those currently alive.
    3. 3. Year 0Go back in time 2000 years and this is how human beings were distributed globally.Here area is drawn in proportion to population.
    4. 4. Year 1500500 years ago almost none of these countries existed. Note how large Africa was before mass slavery.
    5. 5. Year 1900One hundred years ago European population peaked, 24 years after condoms were widely publicised.
    6. 6. Year 1960Fifty years ago the contraceptive pill was first used in affluent countries. Everywhere population growth was slowing.
    7. 7. Year 2002Eight years ago a majority of people in the world were living in countries with below-replacement fertility.
    8. 8. Year 2050In just over forty years time the world population is predicted by the UN to start declining.This is where people will be then.
    9. 9. Year 2300Africa continues to grow until 2300 while worldwide population falls according to the UN central projections.
    10. 10. For the first time since plague world population is about to shrink: So it does quickly in Europe
    11. 11. Year 1900: Wealth and Condoms Population Peak in Europe: Falling fertility since 1877This is how people were distributed in Europe when population growth was highest, and began to slow
    12. 12. Year 1960: The Pill Final baby boomThe 1960s baby boom, the children of the 1946 boom, the grandchildren of the 1919 boom, are the last.
    13. 13. Year 2002: Nowadays Diminishing Europe...Today Europe relies on immigration to maintain population, services and its plurality.
    14. 14. Year 2050: World Peak Population ...and expanding AfricaEven with continued immigration at current levels Europe will shrink in its global population share
    15. 15. Year 2300: Furthest Predictions Global StabilityIt is a waste of built infrastructure to plan for Europe to shrink. The future will probably look very different to this.
    16. 16. The United Kingdom is currently home to 1% of the world’s adults but only half a percent of children.
    17. 17. A Children’s World Map of the World’s ChildrenThere are two billion children in the world – these are future carers of the old
    18. 18. An aged World Map of the 100 year oldsThe very oldest people are concentrated in just a few of the richest countries – often those with the least children
    19. 19. Future population balance will depend primarily on population migration.
    20. 20. International ImmigrantsThis maps shows where all the people who have crossed international borders since birth now live.
    21. 21. International EmigrantsThis map shows where all the people who have crossed international borders since birth were born.
    22. 22. Net ImmigrationThis map shows how many extra people those countries which gain from migration receive.
    23. 23. Net EmigrationThis map shows how many people those countries which lose population are losing.
    24. 24. Each country in the world experiences a different story that reflects its history
    25. 25. Where they are The world’s ‘real’ population distributionWithin each country people concentrate in particular areas and are leaving other parts
    26. 26. Where they are UK’s ‘real’ population distributionWithin the United Kingdom in recent decades population growth has been constrained to the south of England.
    27. 27. High density living is rare Administrative extent of major urban areas in BritainOnly eight urban areas in Great Britain are substantially built up at much lower density than most major European cities
    28. 28. Sprawl: Encouraged by infrastructure Major road network in BritainLack of investment in rail and too much motorway building has increased social polarised urban sprawl
    29. 29. Southern population concentration Bankers in BritainThe spatial concentration of a bloated finance industry skewed population growthtowards the south in England as well as Wales and Scotland.
    30. 30. Areas currently losing out in Britain Labour votes at the 2005 general electionThe places that lost out most in recent years in terms of wealth, health, population influx and now (un)employmentwere those in the north and in inner cities.
    31. 31. Born abroad 7.5% of people living in Britain were born abroad http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/uk/05/born_abroad/html/overview.stmParts of Britain are now home to one of the most diverse pluralities of people in Europe.
    32. 32. Going abroad More than 400,000 people left the UK in 2007In equal number to those arriving, Britains move abroad. People leave in greater numbers during recessions.
    33. 33. Migration Patterns Migration flows from and to the United Kingdom in 2006 Emigrants from the UK Immigrants to the UKThe environmental impact of emigrants is much greater than immigrants – in total.
    34. 34. The United Kingdom A crossroad in the world’s demographic changeAmong the countries in Europe, the United Kingdom currently has fewer residents born abroad than Austria, Belgium,France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland – and also fewer than Canada, the USA, Australia and NewZealand.
    35. 35. Credits • Slideshow based on a talk given at the The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution Study on the Environmental Impacts of Demographic Change in the UK • All maps created by the Worldmapper team, most of which can be found online at www.worldmapper.org and www.viewsoftheworld.net • Slides created by Benjamin Hennig Further reading suggestions: Magnason, A. S. (2008). Dreamland: A Self-Help Manual for a Frightened Nation. London, Citizen Press Ltd. http://www.dustormagic.net/EqualityWhen/SocialBarriersToSustainability.html http://www.dustormagic.net/NOII/TooManyOfWhomJan10.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/apr/20/food-carbon-emissions http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/01/population-crash-fred-pearce“Now, for the first time in human history, a majority of people worldwide can read what you write. Some five out of every six childrenin the world are now taught to read and write to a degree that only a minority of their parents were; a majority of their children willprobably have internet access. A hundred million young adults worldwide are now allowed to study in the hallowed halls ofuniversities each year. Education may still be hugely unjust in how it is distributed and may be in some ways becoming more unjustlyallocated, but there are many more people alive in the world today who have been given the freedom to learn right through tocollege. This is not just many more than before, it is many more than all those before combined; more humans alive today havebeen to university than all the human beings who have ever gone. The forebears of today’s university graduates almost all becamepart of a tiny elite, in some way governing others and being rewarded with riches as a result. Only a very small minority of today’suniversity graduates can become rich; there are simply far too many now for all but a tiny fraction to be very wealthy, or to havemuch power, or both. Why should we expect the rest to accept this situation placidly? Fortunately, and far from coincidently, humanpopulation growth is peaking at exactly the same time as our literacy and understanding explodes. It is not hard to be pessimistic,but it is also not hard to be an optimist too given the circumstances we now find ourselves in.”(From Daniel Dorling: "Injustice: why social inequality persists, Bristol: Policy Press, April 2010“)

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