Megacity London - ever growing, ever more unequal?

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Talk by Danny Dorling and Benjamin Hennig at the Sheila McKechnie Foundation (SMK), London, January 15, 2013. Read more at http://www.viewsoftheworld.net/?p=3229

Talk by Danny Dorling and Benjamin Hennig at the Sheila McKechnie Foundation (SMK), London, January 15, 2013. Read more at http://www.viewsoftheworld.net/?p=3229

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  • 1. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? MEGACITY LONDON Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Danny Dorling & Benjamin Hennig University of Sheffield Sheila McKechnie Foundation, London January 15, 2013
  • 2. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?Area AreaLondon is a megacity. 1,570 km2But not because of its large area… 607 mi2
  • 3. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released July 2012Population…but because of its population size Populationof over 5 million people. 8,173,194
  • 4. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released July 2012PopulationWhile the ‘old’ megacities in the wealthy parts of the worldstagnate in population, London is unique it its continuinggrowth and specific demography.
  • 5. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released July 2012An Anti-ageing Megacity? Watch this map animation at www.viewsoftheworld.netInner London is a magnet for the younger age groupsfull of aspirations and hopes
  • 6. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?(Fading) AspirationsFrom 1970 to 2000, area rates of povertyand wealth in Britain have changed insignificant ways. More households havebecome poor, but fewer are very poor.Areas already wealthy have tended tobecome disproportionately wealthier, andwe are seeing some evidence ofincreasing polarisation.In some of the centres of London and 2000other cities, over half of all householdshave become breadline poor in thatperiod.What has changed since then? 1980•Dorling, D., Rigby, J., Wheeler, B., Ballas, D., Thomas, B., Fahmy, E., Gordon, D., andLupton, R. (2007): Poverty, wealth and place in Britain, 1968 to 2005. Bristol: Policy Press.http://www.dannydorling.org/?page_id=0463•Office for National Statistics (2012): The 2011 Census.http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/census/2011/
  • 7. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?Poverty, wealth and place in Britain• Core poor: people who are income poor, materially deprived and subjectively poor• Breadline poor: people living below a relative poverty line, and, as such, excluded from participating in the norms of society• Asset wealthy: estimated using the relationship between housing wealth and the contemporary inheritance tax threshold• Exclusive wealthy: people with so much wealth that they can exclude themselves from the norms of societyWe calculate these groups from an approach developed for the 2001 Census (published in 2007). Once the full data of the new Census is published, these equations will need to be adjusted and updated. The following equations explain, how the different indicators are weighted to calculate the total number of households in each group.
  • 8. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?Breadline PoorThe number of exclusive breadline poor households in each boroughfollows the equation:58% of overcrowded households (more than one person per room)+ 36% of households renting from local authority or housing association+ 32% of lone-parent households+ 30% of households with an unemployed household reference person+ 18% of households with no car+ 17% of households renting from a private landlord+ 16% of households with a member with a limiting long-term illness+ 14% of households with no central heating or not having sole useof amenities+11% of households with household reference person in NS-SEC category6, 7 or 8 (semi-routine occupations, routine occupations, never worked and long-termunemployed according to the National Statistics Socio-economic Classification)
  • 9. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?Exclusive WealthyThe number of exclusive wealthy households in eachborough follows the equation:3.1% of high social class households*+ 1.5% of owner-occupied households+ 4.3% of households with no dependent children+ 2.2% of households where the head of household was in work+ 1.6% of households with seven or more rooms**+ 2.9% of households with two or more cars.* with head of household in social class I or II (Working as managers and senior officials or in professionaloccupations)** left out in the following data as the data is not yet available for the 2011 CensusThe 2011 Census based estimate is crude, but uses identical methods to those used in 2001. In practise this groupcan be thought of as people able to afford each year to use at least two items from the following list: expensive newcar, private health insurance or care, private school fees, private domestic servants, and expenditure on a secondhome.
  • 10. Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?The ‘Middle’?We look at the changing fortunes of people by comparingthe changes of Breadline Poor, Exclusive Wealthy andthose outside these two groups, hereafter labelled as‘Middle’.The Middle group describes those neither poor norexclusively wealthy, but includes the Asset Wealthy whoare not so wealthy that they can exclude themselves fromthe norms of society by dint of their wealth.
  • 11. Own calculations based on data from the 2001 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released in 2002Poverty, wealth and place in 2001Breadline Poor Exclusive Wealthy Exclusive Middle Breadline Core Poor* Wealthy Poor Middle London 6.5% 48.6% 44.9% 16.7% Inner London 6.3% 35.2% 58.5% 21.7% Outer London 6.7% 57.6% 35.7% 13.3% * Subset of Breadline Poor
  • 12. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Poverty, wealth and place in 2011Breadline Poor Exclusive Wealthy Exclusive Middle Breadline Core Poor* Wealthy Poor Middle London 6.7% 43.8% 49.5% 16.7% Inner London 6.6% 35.0% 58.4% 21.7% Outer London 6.7% 50.3% 43.0% 15.5% * Subset of Breadline Poor
  • 13. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Poverty, wealth and place 2001-2011Breadline Poor Exclusive Wealthy Excl. Middle Breadline Core Poor Wealthy change Poor change change* change Middle +0.2% -4.7% +4.5% +1.2%Absolute differences to 2001: London Inner London +0.3% -0.2% -0.1% -0.5%10.8% increase in exclusive wealth; 19.2% increase in Outer London +0.0% -7.4% +7.4% +2.2%breadline poverty; 2.1% decline in Middle households * Subset of Breadline Poor
  • 14. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Poverty, wealth and place 2011Breadline Poor Exclusive Wealthy MiddleThis highlights the differences, but poor, rich and averagepeople and still found in significant numbers in every borough– a direct comparison gives a better impression…
  • 15. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Exclusive Wealthy2011 Total (2011): 196,821 Change to 2001: +0.1% Highest number: Barnet (9,064)
  • 16. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Middle2011 Total (2011): 1,432,802 Change to 2001: -4.7% Highest number: Bromley (81,014)
  • 17. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Breadline Poor2011 Total (2011): 1,615,216 Change to 2001: +4.5% Highest number: Southwark (75,597)
  • 18. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released June 2012Households2011 Total (2011): 3,266,173 Change to 2001: +8.3% Highest number: Croydon (145,010)
  • 19. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Households NS-Sec 6, 7 or 82011 Total (2011): 1,594,003 Difference 2001-2011: +28.1% Highest number: Newham (83,761)
  • 20. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012One person in household with a long-term health problem or disability, 2011 Total (2011): 732,552 Difference 2001-2011: -7.2% Highest number: Croydon (33,106)
  • 21. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Households with no adults in employment2011 Total (2011): 920,435 Difference 2001-2011: -5.0% Highest number: Croydon (41,516)
  • 22. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Households with no central heating2011 Total (2011): 92,411 Difference 2001-2011: +2.4% Highest number: Westminster (4,664)
  • 23. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Households privately rented2011 Total (2011): 775,591 Difference 2001-2011: +9.4% Highest number: Westminster (39,732)
  • 24. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Households with an occupancy rating of-1 or less, 2011 Total (2011): 707,437 Difference 2001-2011: +4.3% Highest number: Newham (35,431)
  • 25. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Households with no cars2011 Total (2011): 1,357,251 Difference 2001-2011: +4.1% Highest number: Lambeth (75,214)
  • 26. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Households renting from Local Authority2011 Total (2011): 439,727 Difference 2001-2011: +3.7% Highest number: Southwark (37,628)
  • 27. Data: UK 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Households in Breadline Poverty2011 Total (2011): 1,615,216 Difference 2001-2011: +4.5% Highest number: Southwark (75,597)
  • 28. Own calculations based on data from the 2011 CensusMegacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal? Released December 2012Increase in Breadline Poverty Rank of change in proportions (blue=highest proportional change)2001-2011 Total change 2001-2011: +260,271 Highest decline: City of London (-40) Highest increase: Enfield (16,587)
  • 29. Data: ONS, 2011Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?DeprivationIndex of Multiple Deprivation, 2010
  • 30. ConclusionLondon is unusual. London is becomingmore youthful. By April 2011, the middleaged and those who are poor, but notdesperately poor, are being squeezed out.Graduates from the rest of Britain and therest of the world flow in ever greaternumbers and require ever higher degreesof optimism. Many fail to achieve theiraspirations. Above them a few arebecoming ever richer. Below them, asprivately rented and social housingbecomes too expensive for huge numbersof lowly paid families and many leave, anew poor may be growing, less well See these slides and additional content online:documented, less well protected, with www.viewsoftheworld.neteven less to lose.Another future is possible.