Evolving Solutions for New Horizons, Seafood Summit 2012 Keynote Speech

Evolving Solutions forNew HorizonsHong Kong Seafood Summit (Sept, 2012)

Where are we heading?

Global consumption patterns

Aquaculture Production 120 120 Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum) Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum) Stagnant fisheries Pig 100 100 Stagnant fisheries Production forecast (this study) Production (million tonnes) Production (million tonnes) Production targets (national data) • Global/consumption/rises/to/22.5/kg/y 80 • Global/consumption/rises/to/22.5/kg/y 80 Chicken • Global/consumption//remains/at • Global/consumption//remains/at 1996/ levels/(15.6/kg/y) 1996/ levels/(15.6/kg/y) 60 60 Fish Fish Fish 40 40 •Technological/advances/in/aquaculture •Technological/advances/in/aquaculture 20 •Baseline/scenario •Baseline/scenario 20 •Ecological/collapse/of/fisheries •Ecological/collapse/of/fisheries 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Year Ye (1999) IFPRI (2003) (1999) Ye FAO IFPRI (2003) (2004) FAO (2004) Wijkstrom (2003)

Demand Drivers

Changes in developing country wealth (1995 – 2005) Source: World Bank (2011) The changing wealth of na<ons.

Growth in per capita wealth (1995 – 2005)Source: World Bank (2011) The changing wealth of na<ons.

UrbanizationThe new urban world RussiaThe earth reaches a momentous Moscowmilestone: by next year, for the ﬁrst timein history, more than half its population Norway Sweden Finland 7.6 Estonia Latvia 103.6 13.4will be living in cities. Those 3.3 billionpeople are expected to grow to 5 billion Canada UK Lithuania 73% Shanghai Belarus 54.0 Denmarkby 2030 — this unique map of the world 26.3 Ireland Netherlands 17.3shows where those people live now 80% 13.3 Poland 90% 81% 23.9 Ukraine Canton 62% 14.5 Belgium 10.2 Germany 30.9 London US 97% 12.0 62.0 Czech Republic Slovakia 7.4 68% Mongolia Beijing 12.7 75% Moldova China France 246.2 Austria Hungary Romania 11.6 Kazakh- 46.9 Istanbul New York Slovenia 54% stan N Korea Urban population in millions 21.8 At the beginning of the 20th Switzer- Croatia Serbia & 11.7 Tehran 8.6 century, the worlds urban 77% land Italy Mont Georgia Uzbekistan 14.1 81% population was only 220 Bulgaria Armenia 559.2 Bosnia Macedonia 12.1 62% 10.1 Japan million, mainly in the west 39.6 Albania Azerbaijan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan 37% LA Urban percentage 68% Greece Turkey Tajikistan S Korea 17.9 Spain 51.1 Iran Afghan- istan Urban population in millions 39.0 84.7 Portugal 33.6 48.4 7.8 66% 42% 68% 81% 77% Cairo 68% Hong Kong 15.9 Pakistan Urban percentage Seoul Mexico Lebanon Syria Tunisia Iraq 23.2 Osaka 10.2 Cuba Algeria Palestine 51% 20.3 59.3 Vietnam 16.6 Tokyo 84.392 8.5 Morocco 22.0 Libya Egypt Jordan 67% Kuwait 36% 23.3 33.4 19.4 Israel 77% Haiti Dominican Puerto Republic Gambia 65% 33.1 27% Jamaica Rico Senegal 60% Burma Guinea-Bissau Niger Saudi Arabia UAE Karachi Sierra Leone Mauritania Lagos 43% 20.9 14.8 Bhutan 16.5 Laos Cambodia Mexico Guate- mala Guinea 10.0 Chad 81% Oman Nepal 32% Philippines Manila Nigeria Liberia Mali Burkina Eritrea Bangladesh Thailand City Honduras Trinidad & Tobago Ivory Sudan Ethiopia Yemen 21.5 55.0 15.4 India El 22.1 Salvador Nicaragua Coast 8.6 Ghana 68.6 16.3 13.0 38.2 33% 64% 11.3 43% 16% Venezuela 49% Somalia 26% Costa Rica 26.0 50% 329.3 Uganda Togo Kenya Malaysia Panama 94% DR Congo 7.6 Dacca 20.2 Rwanda By 2030, the towns and 18.1 Colombia Benin CAR cities of the developing world will make up 80% 13.8 69% 33% Burundi 29% Tanzania 34.3 Cameroon 9.5 Congo Zambia 9.9 25% of urban humanity Singapore Indonesia 73% Gabon Angola Brazil 114.1 Ecuador Papua New Guinea 9.3 Malawi 8.7 Mozam- Mada- Mauritius Melanesia Botswana bique gascar BombayKey 50% Namibia 162.6 Zimbabwe Peru 21.3 21.0 Sao Paulo Predominantly urban 73% 20.4 S Africa Swaziland 85% 28.6 Sri Lanka E Timor 75% or over Lesotho Delhi Jakarta Bolivia Rio de 60% 21.1 Calcutta 14.9 Australia Predominantly urban Janeiro 50—74% Paraguay 15.5 18.3 Chile 12.2 89% New Predominantly rural 14.6 Zealand 88% Urban growth, 2005—2010 25—49% urban Argentina Uruguay 35.6 3.2% Predominantly rural Buenos 2.8% 3,307,950,000 0—24% urban 90% Aires 2.4% 13.5 Cities over 10 million people 1.7% (greater urban area) 1.3% 1.3% 0.1% -0.4% Latin America Europe Africa Arab States Asia & Caribbean Oceania North America Eastern Europe The world’s urban population — from a total of 6,615.9 million SOURCE: UNFPA GRAPHIC: PAUL SCRUTONSource: UNFPA

Fresh food consumption growth 2009 - 2014Source: www.euromonitor.com

Global consumption patterns

Growth in demand for fish (2007 – 2015)Source: Cai (2011) Preliminary notes on forecas<ng the country’s future demand for ﬁsh.

Year 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Fig. 1 Stunting trends from 1990 to 2020 by UN region (1 – 1 – 1, Africa; 3 – 3 – 3, Asia; B – B – B, Latin America & the Year Growth to 2020 by UN region (1 and need– 3 – 3, Asia; B – B – B, Latin America & the in demand – 1 – 1, Africa; 3 Caribbean; , – , – ,, developing countries; 2 – 2 – 2, developed countries)unting trends from 1990n; , – , – ,, developing countries; 2 – 2 – 2, developed countries) Stunting in children < 5 yrs The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimination of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement. © WHO 2010. All rights reserved Fig. 2 Latest country estimates of stunting in children aged 0–5 years ( The boundaries and names shown and the designationsno data; map,do not imply the expression of any , used on this ,20 %; , 20–29?9 %; , 30–39?9 %; , $40 %) opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimination of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted lines Source: Onis et al., (2010) on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.

Well-being and securitySource: New England Complex Systems Ins<tute

Well-being and security

Our challenges

Multiple and inter-related Environmental Capture Fisheries Supply Impacts Aquaculture Technical Consumption Patterns Barriers Overfishing Demand Trade Patterns Food security Demand Drivers Predicting Fleets Trends Sector Structure and Dynamics Farms Profitability Value Chains Fisheries Governance Fishery Aquaculture Reform Policy and Regulation

Polarities everywhere

New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price formation! Results: 1. At least for the price formation in Germany, there is no statistical relation between increasing volumes of frozen pangasius fillets and landing prices for cod. 2. Regarding landing prices of plaice a statistical relation with increasing volumes of imported frozen pangasius fillets can be stated. Seminar on price formation and marketing of fisheries and aquaculture products „New supply chains for seafood: Implications for competition and price formation“ 10. December 2009, Brussels 22 Dr. Matthias Keller, AIPCE/CEP 1Source: http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/news_and_events/events/price_seminar/keller_en.pdf

Marine and freshwater fisheries11-‐13 mT 10-‐13 Mt 19-‐20 Mt Freshwater ﬁsheries are especially important for many of those that need ﬁsh. Source: Mills et al (2010)

Large and small-scale fisheries Small Scale ﬁt 11-‐13 mT 10-‐13 M sheries are 19-‐20 Mt especially important for many of those that need ﬁsh. Source: Mills et al (2010)

Demand and needWhat fish farmers want to produce … and what poor consumers want to eat

Are we joining the dots?

Are we joining the dots? Fish supply and demand scenarios in Cambodia and perspectives on the future role of aquaculture MAIN MESSAGES: Aquaculture is essential for Cambodia’s future ﬁsh supply.

the next 20 years to 19 million people which would likely inter-linked steps; i) future scenario development, ii) mod-require substantial increased supplies of fish. elling projected fish demand and supply for 2030 using the ‘AsiaFish Model’ iii) aquaculture system characterizationThe supply of ‘free’ wild fish is under threat from over- and, iv) analysis of aquaculture pathway and investment Fish supply and demand scenarios for Cambodiafishing, climate change, habitat modification and hydropower development which could mean less fish supplied options (Figure 1).Figure 1: Schematic to show key steps, activities and outputs to determine future investment options for aqua-culture in Lower Mekong BasinSCENARIOS FOR FISH SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN high uncertainty were used to create scenario logic, the2030 framework to develop four scenario narratives for fisheries

Cambodia scenarios to 2030 Good conservation Cornucopia Winner Takes All and habitat •  No hydro power preservation •  Little IUU •  High fishing •  No hydro power •  Habitats preserved •  Aq limited Environment & Habitat Empowerment of Anarchy in fisheries Governance Policy & community fisheries, & Law Compliance legal complianceAquaculture plus Following the rules•  Fisheries decline •  Rice-fish fisheries•  Aquaculture investment enhanced•  Hydro power grows Degradation of fish •  Hydro power grows habitat •  Fisheries stable

Theory of change A forward looking and Multi-stakeholder informed stakeholder process constituency Improved policy Increased A balance of framework that aligns contribution perspectives. action. to food security andStructured engagement Coherent engagement economic with a clear objective with existing policy and guidance. processes. development An improvedSustained eﬀort - more investment and riskthan ‘one-oﬀ’ inputs. climate

o make this happen A global equivalent? dialogue needed by the fish sector, we propose to establish a partnership among several key international institutions to esign a global multi-stakeholder process. Over the course of 18 months a combined top-down and bottom-up approach e industry challenges ahead and use this as the foundation for a coherent and effective global policy framework, developed rk of participating organizations including governments, industry players, research organizations, NGO’s and civil society. low summarizes the proposed process, the objectives for each stage and how they combine to achieve the desired outcomes. 1 2 3 4 5 Global Regional Regional Regional Global Workshop Workshops Workstreams Workshops Workshop Policy Relevance of Global Global Scenarios Innovation Global Policy Scenarios Regional Policy to Regions & Framework & 2030 & Policy Research Draft Regional Initiatives Gaps Policy Gaps Funding To bring To broaden the To develop To consolidate To elaborate stakeholders into stakeholder solution sets for and review a global policy a constructive constituency key constraints to solution sets agenda and problem solving engaged in achieving desired and develop identify initiatives conversations dialogue. futures for the fish regionally to build on To suspend power To validate and food system. contextualized progress. relations and refine global policy solutions. foster authentic perspectives.

Thank you

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Evolving Solutions for New Horizons, Seafood Summit 2012 Keynote Speech

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Evolving Solutions for New Horizons, Seafood Summit 2012 Keynote Speech Presentation Transcript