Steven Pifer: Seizing the Opportunity to Reduce Nuclear Weapons
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Steven Pifer: Seizing the Opportunity to Reduce Nuclear Weapons

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Accompaniment to this event: http://www.worldaffairs.org/audio-video/2013/reduce-nuclear-weapons.html ...

Accompaniment to this event: http://www.worldaffairs.org/audio-video/2013/reduce-nuclear-weapons.html

Speaker: Steven Pifer, Director, Arms Control Initiative, Brookings Institution

Moderator: Zachary Davis, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

The ongoing nuclear proliferation issues with Iran and North Korea have put nuclear arms high up on the American foreign policy agenda. These media grabbing developments can sometimes overshadow traditional nuclear arms reduction talks and stockpile maintenance. With that said, President Obama made reducing existing nuclear weapons a foreign policy priority during his first term. Now that Obama has begun his second term with the New START Treaty between the US and Russia signed and in force, should the US consider other nuclear arms control steps to enhance American security? Can there be another major US-Russia treaty and, if so, can the tactical and surplus strategic nuclear warheads that have so far escaped control be brought into such a framework?

Ambassador Steven Pifer will discuss the differences between Washington and Moscow over missile defense, the proposal to ban further production of fissile materials and the challenges facing the Obama administration in pursuing this agenda.

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Steven Pifer: Seizing the Opportunity to Reduce Nuclear Weapons Steven Pifer: Seizing the Opportunity to Reduce Nuclear Weapons Presentation Transcript

  • Seizing the Opportunity toReduce Nuclear WeaponsSteven PiferDirector, Brookings Arms Control InitiativeMay 30, 2013World Affairs Council of Northern California
  • New START Limits• 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles• 800 deployed and non-deployed launchersand bombers• 1550 deployed strategic warheads
  • US Nuclear Stockpile
  • TransparencyNew START Numbers, March 2013New START Limit US RussiaDeployed strategic deliveryvehicles (700) 792 492Deployed and non-deployedlaunchers and bombers (800) 1028 900Deployed warheads (1550) 1654 1480
  • Potential Cost Savings• Need to recapitalizestrategic triad• Ballistic missilesubmarines• Heavy bombers• ICBMs• Budget demands
  • US, Russia NuclearWarhead LevelsUS RussiaDeployed strategic * ~1950 ~1740Nonstrategic ~500 ~2000Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200 ~700(~4700) (~4450)Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000Total warheads ~7700 ~8500* Estimated actual number, not New START accountable numberNumbers drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, “Trimming Nuclear Excess: Options for Further Reductions of U.S. andRussian Nuclear Forces”
  • “Big” Treaty• Limit on each side of no more than2000-2500 total nuclear warheads• 1000 deployed strategic warhead sublimit• Aggregate limit => trade-off• Limit of 500 deployed strategicdelivery vehicles
  • Notional Reduction to 2000 Total
  • Parallel Reduction Tracks• (1) Deployed strategic weapons• Amend New START limits• (2) Reserve strategic and non-strategic nuclear weapons• Transparency/CBMs => negotiationregarding numerical limits in phases
  • Cooperative Missile Defense?• Transparency• Joint exercises• Two independentsystems interacting• Data fusion center• Planning andoperations center
  • Nuclear Explosions, 1945-2013United States• 1054 totalRest of World• USSR/Russia 715• France 210• Britain 45• China 45• India 6• Pakistan 5• North Korea 3• Total 1029
  • Multilateralizing Arms Control
  • Russia Under New STARTNew START Numbers, March 2013New START Limit US RussiaDeployed strategic deliveryvehicles (700) 792 492Deployed and non-deployedlaunchers and bombers (800) 1028 900Deployed warheads (1550) 1654 1480
  • US, Russia NuclearWarhead LevelsUS RussiaDeployed strategic * ~1950 ~1740Nonstrategic ~500 ~2000Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200 ~700(~4700) (~4450)Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000Total warheads ~7700 ~8500* Estimated actual number, not New START accountable numberNumbers drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, “Trimming Nuclear Excess: Options for Further Reductions of U.S. andRussian Nuclear Forces”