Rainforest Model. Le slide di Greg Horowitt
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Rainforest Model. Le slide di Greg Horowitt

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#ItalianRainforest - Impariamo a crescere. Per una Nuova Teoria Pratica dell'Innovazione. Un evento di Working Capital di Telecom Italia.

#ItalianRainforest - Impariamo a crescere. Per una Nuova Teoria Pratica dell'Innovazione. Un evento di Working Capital di Telecom Italia.

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  • it's quite a change of cultural paradigm
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  • Very nice.
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  • es una exelente presentación donde nos muestra el dearrollo de la imaginacion y el alcanse de nuestras ideas.

    is an excellent presentation that shows the development of imagination and alcanse of our ideas.
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  • Me encantó demasiado. El bosque lluvioso, nublado o húmedo está formidable. Entre todas esas ideas de cómo la sociedad misma debe sobrevivir están las excelentes recomendaciones de vida o muerte. Muchas gracias por compartir esta excelente presentación. Hiram Báez Andino, San Juan, PUERTO RICO
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  • Hic sunt dracones  Here be dragons. Only occurs here. Marco Polo’s Dagroians who “feasted upon the dead and ate their bones”. Nasty people, but more like auditors than dragons.


  • 1. A new book by Victor W. Hwang and Greg Horowitt Greg Horowitt, Managing Director, T2 Venture Capital Co-Founder, UCSD Global CONNECT www.therainforestbook.com www.innosummit.com
  • 4. ECONOMICSThe science of explaining tomorrow, why the predictionsyou made yesterday, didn’t come true today
  • 5. But in the real world Not gears, but human beings Landlord Land Engineer Labor Output Capital Investor Science Scientist
  • 6. And real human beings are separated… by geography, culture, language, time zones, socialnetworks, and lack of trust.
  • 7. This happens across entire systems. Across an entire system
  • 9. “Spontaneous sociability is critical to economic life because virtually all economic activity is carried out by groups rather than individuals.” Economic historians Douglass North and Robert Thomas (P47 of “Trust”)
  • 10. ACTIONS  OUTCOMESThis is where we tend to focus
  • 11. BELIEFS  BEHAVIORACTIONS  OUTCOMESThis is where we need to focus
  • 12. Implicit Explicit
  • 15. Scarcity
  • 17. Abundance
  • 19. For a new species For a new startup temperature, humidity, capital, entrepreneurs, precipitation, sunlight, laws/norms, ideas/inventions,soil/nutrients, other flora/fauna talent, markets
  • 20. Can we engineer serendipity through design byweaving together a tapestry of inter-disciplinaryideas to create a “bottom-up” economic model? Frederick Jackson Turner Ade W. Edwards Mabogunje Deming Robert Sapolsky Annalee Saxenian Danah Boyd HernandoSean de Soto fMRI imagingGourley James Fowler “Design Thinking” Ronald IlyaE.O. Wilson (Rolf Faste, et al) Coase Prigogine Richard Francis Thaler Fukuyama
  • 21. YES!
  • 22. Because we know it’s not just about creative destructionMore important…and more difficult…is creative reassembly
  • 23. Like a fractal equation in nature…
  • 24. …what is the micro cultural pattern that generates macro phenomena in places like Silicon Valley?
  • 25. “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent… but the one most responsive to change.” Charles Darwin
  • 26. 20 years from now…what will be the next
  • 27. Hic Sunt Dracones
  • 28. Here Be Dragons
  • 29. Navigation vs. Cartography
  • 31. Ambiguity + DiscomfortUninformed + Intelligent
  • 32. To develop innovation, we need more than mere programs.We must build tribes of trust that practiceculture based on diversity, lowering social barriers, aspirational motivations, andnorms that promote rapid, “promiscuous” collaboration and experimentation.
  • 33. A New Paradigm• Predict and Repeat  Learn and Adapt• Business Planning  Business Modeling• Eliminate Risk  Manage Risk• Never Fail  Fail fast and cheaply• Outputs  Outcomes (Patents ≠ Products)• Invention  Innovation
  • 34. Tell me and I forget Show me and I rememberInvolve me and I understand “Chinese Proverb”
  • 35. Rules of the RainforestRule #1: Break rules and dream.Rule #2: Open doors and listen.Rule #3: Trust and be trusted.Rule #4: Experiment and iterate together.Rule #5: Seek fairness, not advantage.Rule #6: Err, fail, and persist.Rule #7: Pay it forward.
  • 36. The InnovationEcosystem Ideas Opportunity Talent Capital
  • 37. What can we learn from psychology?How does human behavior really change? Across an entire system
  • 38. People learn behavior through real-world“doing,” role modeling, peer interactionwith diverse partners, feedbackmechanisms, and explicit codes ofconduct. Across an entire system
  • 39. •Who are the entrepreneurs?•Who has the reputation, resources and •Who are the service providers? •What is the regulatory environment forcommitment to lead new initiatives? •Who are the inventors? innovation?•Who will champion new initiatives within •Who are the capital providers? •What legal/bureaucratic barriers stand intheir own organizations? •Who are the support organizations? the way of entrepreneurship?•How can leaders and champions be more •What is the role of government? •What widespread social norms surroundinclusive? •Who are the other key participants in the innovation ecosystems? the innovation ecosystem? •What are people already doing to stimulate •Where, when and how do stakeholders•What resources are available to aspiring innovation/entrepreneurship? interact? •Who are the local entrepreneurs that haveentrepreneurs (knowledge, mentorship, •How are these people collaborating with •How do ideas, talent and capital come built successful companies?cloud hosting, etc.)? each other? together? •Who are the local entrepreneurs that•What sources of capital are there in the •What activities drive participation in the •What are the lines of communication haven’t yet been successful and what canmarketplace? between partners? we learn from their failures? community?•How does this capital flow and interact •What events create ‘buzz’ and generate •How do members of the community •What regions have similar attributes andwith growing businesses? collaborate with each other? resources? interest?•What is the volume and quality of talent in •How does the community engage external •What organizations have sharedthe labor pool? or global partners? visions/values?•What are the main sources of innovative •How does the community encourage •Are there other regions with successfulideas/discoveries/inventions? recruit new constituents? innovation ecosystems that we could learn•What resources are available to service •How do young people get involved? from or emulate?and support organizations that interact with •What forums exist that allow theentrepreneurs (workforce training, etc.)? breakdown of social and professional hierarchies? •Where do people come from? •What are their value systems? •What are their motivations (money, reputation, lifestyle, self expression, etc.)? •What are the ‘amenities of place’? •What is the density and quality of service providers (law, IP, consulting, real estate, etc.)? •How do we create and maintain a sense of urgency? •What boundary spanning organizations exist? •What kind of innovative social networks exist already? •What is the local level of serial entrepreneurship? •How do people deal with uncertainty, risk or randomness? •What is the density and quality of physical infrastructure (airports, internet connections, •How is failure perceived? etc.)? •Do people build for perfection or iteration? •What are the core sectors of the local economy? •What are the strongest regional comparative advantages?
  • 40. “If you want to build a ship, don’t drumup people to collect wood and don’tassign them tasks and work, but ratherteach them to long for the endlessimmensity of the sea.” ~Antoine De Saint Exupery
  • 41. ….and they lived happily ever after
  • 42. A new book by Victor W. Hwang and Greg HorowittGreg HorowittManaging Director, T2 Venture CapitalCo-Founder, Global CONNECT, UC San Diego www.therainforestbook.comKauffman Fellow www.innosummit.com