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Subnational population projections for England
 

Subnational population projections for England

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Anthony Szary, Regional Statistician for the West Midlands at the Office for National Statistics, speaking at a workshop on population change hosted by the West Midlands Regional Observatory in ...

Anthony Szary, Regional Statistician for the West Midlands at the Office for National Statistics, speaking at a workshop on population change hosted by the West Midlands Regional Observatory in Birmingham on 31 March 2009.

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Subnational population projections for England Subnational population projections for England Presentation Transcript

  • Subnational population projections for the West Midlands Anthony Szary, Office for National Statistics A presentation given at State of the Region: Implications of Population Change event, 31 March 2009. This presentation forms part of the Observatory’s ongoing State of the Region dialogue between policy makers and researchers on the theme of population change.
  • Subnational Population Projections for West Midlands Anthony Szary Centre for Local & Regional Statistics Office for National Statistics
  • Context
    • Subnational Population Projections for England produced every 2 years.
    • Latest are 2006 based, projecting population, births, deaths, net migration forward for 25 years to 2031
    • Used by:
      • Department of Health, CLG, DCSF
      • Local Authorities, Health Authorities
      • Regional/sub-regional bodies, academia etc
    • Based on past trends and not policy based
    • Use latest mid year population estimate as base
    • Calculated at building brick (LA district) level
    • Constrained to national projections
    General Principles
    • P p = P c + B – D + M w + M I
    • single year of age, gender and area
    • repeated each projection year
    Cohort Component Method: Basic Formula
    • Ageing on
    • Fertility
    • Mortality
    • Internal migration
    • International migration
    Stages in the model
    • Births registrations form basis
    • Local differentials calculated from observed data (past 5 years)
    • Provides projected births by age of mother
    • Controlled nationally – scaling local estimates
    Fertility
    • Uses death registrations
    • Local differentials calculated from observed data (5 years)
    • Projected numbers of deaths by age/sex
    • Controlled nationally
    Mortality
    • Internal migration assumptions are derived using data from the Patient Register Data System (PRDS); GP registrations &NHSCR
    • Produce matrices of movements by origin/destination by single year of age and sex
    Internal Migration - 1
    • Model out migration probability, fitting curves to historic data (5 years)
    • Probability applied to population to give out migrants for that area
    • Apply matrix to calculate in-migrants for each destination area
    Internal Migration - 2
  • Typical Migration Age Profile
    • Migration streams dictated by data:
      • rest of world measured by International Passenger Survey (IPS)
      • rest of UK (cross border), based on PRDS
      • rest of world that are seeking asylum or visitor switchers (Home Office/IPS)
    • Distribute national in and out migrants as per Mid Year Estimates method (propensity to migrate models utilising LFS data)
    International Migration
    • Each element is controlled to national totals
    • Projected population is new base
    • Repeat process for 25 years
    Population Controls
    • Aggregate building bricks to other geographies, such as:
      • strategic health authorities
      • Government Office Regions
    Aggregation
    • Draft projections produced
    • Consultation on first year migration assumptions
    • Any adjustments applied
    • Publication of final projections and supporting material
    Processes
    • Difficulties in measuring migration
    • ONS has switched primary focus of IPS from the measurement of tourism to the measurement of migration
    • Models to allocate international migrants more accurately being developed
    Issues
    • Projections are inherently uncertain
    • A variant is simply a different set of assumptions applied to the same base data
    • ONS sub national population projection variants will (resources permitting) be produced for the following different assumptions
      • High and low fertility
      • High and low mortality
      • High and low migration
      • Zero net-migration
    Variants
  • Variants for England projections
    • Population of West Midlands projected to rise more slowly than most other regions
    Population projection for West Midlands NE E SE Lon NW EM WM Y&H SW Source: ONS Sub National Population Projections 2006
  • Projected population growth between 2007 & 2027 English regions Source: ONS Sub National Population Projections 2006
    • Over next 10-20 years significant further ageing:
    • Proportions in 10-30 age band to decline significantly
    • Proportions in 65+ age band to rise significantly
    Projected changes in Age Structure
  • Population Profile Projections – 2007 to 2027 West Midlands Source: ONS Sub National Population Projections 2006
    • Proportion of WM population in 65+ age band to rise in line with, but remaining somewhat above, projections for England
    • London continuing to have a much lower proportion in this age band, and the SW a significantly higher proportion
    Ageing in comparison to other regions
  • Proportion of population aged over 65 – English regions Source: ONS Sub National Population Projections 2006
    • Projections indicate ageing will be much more pronounced in certain Local Authorities
    • eg. by 2027 proportions in 65+ age band projected to almost double in Redditch & Tamworth, but to rise only marginally in Birmingham & Coventry
    Ageing by Local Authority
  • Population & projections 2007 to 2027 Aged over 65 – West Midlands Local Authorities Source: ONS Sub National Population Projections 2006
  • Contact details Anthony Szary Centre for Local and Regional Statistics Office for National Statistics E [email_address] T +44 (0)121 202 3256 Web www.ons.gov.uk Stephen Howarth Deputy Chief Executive West Midlands Regional Observatory E [email_address] T +44 (0)121 202 3258 Web www.wmro.org Blog http://wmro.wordpress.com Rosie Day Research Analyst West Midlands Regional Observatory E [email_address] T +44 (0)121 202 3286 Web www.wmro.org Blog http://wmro.wordpress.com