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Challenges and Opportunities: water management and development in the Zambezi

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Transboundary Water Management Workshop held in Johannesburg, South Africa from April 29-30, 2014.

Transboundary Water Management Workshop held in Johannesburg, South Africa from April 29-30, 2014.

Published in: Science

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  • 1. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES WATER MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN John Metzger, Senior Adviser Zambezi Watercourse Commission, Harare, Zimbabwe 29 April 2014
  • 2. Presentation Outline 2 1. Basin Context 2. Challenges 3. Opportunities 4. Next steps
  • 3. Context the Zambezi and other River Basins: 3 Okavango Mekong Nile Zambezi Basin Area (km2) 429,400 822,200 160,000,000 1,370,000 Avg annual flow (km3) 10 495 84 @ Aswan 130 River length (km) 1,100 4,800 6,853 2,650 Population (million) 1.3 > 60 > 160 > 32 Riparian countries 3 6 11 8
  • 4. Key features - the Zambezi River Basin 4 8 countries: Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe 13 sub-basins:
  • 5. The Zambezi River Basin Basin areas by country 5
  • 6. the Zambezi River Basin Population and distribution 6 Within the basin: > 32 million today: 85% in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe Increasing to 51 million by 2025 7.6 million in 21 urban centres
  • 7. The Zambezi River Basin 7
  • 8. The Zambezi River Basin Economic development 8 > 6% annual economic growth Annual GDP: $100bn annual GDP GDP/capita: $122 (Zimbabwe) to $7,000 (Botswana) Persistent poverty, but dual economies: Some new investments possible in large infrastructure, and Many relying on subsistence livelihoods based on environmental services Some important World Heritage and Ramsar sites Significant reliance on nature-based tourism Climatic variability est. GDP loss ~1%
  • 9. Challenges9
  • 10. Challenges Socio-economic 10 Lack of significant investments in infrastructure in the past 30 years Limited coordinated development: Economic inefficiencies Loss of productivity Impaired ability of natural systems to sustain environmental services Increased risks to extreme climate events
  • 11. Challenges Climate Change Impacts 11 Preliminary assessments: Likely reduced runoff yield Reduced flows of 26-40% Increased irrigation deficits Avg. temperature increases of 1.5C Reduction in firm energy production of 32% But, high levels of uncertainty
  • 12. Challenges 12 Benefits of cooperation have been recognised but realising them has been elusive No significant investments in water management and development in the basin in the past 30 years!
  • 13. Opportunities13
  • 14. Opportunities The time is right for action now!14 Pent-up socio-economic demand in the region Political will is there: Legal and institutional arrangements are now in place Mutual-benefits of cooperation increasingly understood Strong technical and analytical frameworks: as a basis for developing and agreement investments in hydropower, agriculture, environment and transport, etc. > $16bn in infrastructure investments identified Increased cooperation can bring added benefits from existing infrastructure
  • 15. Enabling legal frameworks for cooperation based on benefit-sharing: 15 Initiatives on-going from the1940s Zambezi River Authority – Zambia/Zimbabwe Kariba Dam - commissioned in 1960 Other regional agreements in the past >30 years: 1995 SADC Protocol – revised/ratified 2003 Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) - 1995 Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) Negotiations started in 1980s Signed in 2004 Into force in 2011- interim Secretariat in Botswana Permanent Commission in 2014 – Secretariat in Zimbabwe
  • 16. ZAMCOM Agreement 16 Objective: “To promote the equitable and reasonable utilisation of the water resources of the Zambezi Watercourse as well as the efficient management and sustainable development thereof”
  • 17. ZAMCOM Governance 17
  • 18. Long history of cooperative efforts, supported by solid analytical foundations providing a strong data, information and knowledge base Report on the Zambezi River Commission 1995 18 Much Analytical Work Already Done!
  • 19. Analytical Framework for equitable and reasonable utilisation 19
  • 20. Transboundary Cooperation Types of benefits 20 (Sadoff and Grey, 2005) Type Opportunity 1. To the river Improved quality, flow regime, biodiversity, sustainability 2. From the river Increased benefits from hydropower, agriculture, flood/drought management, navigation, environmental conservation, recreation, etc. 3. Because of the river Improved regional relations based on cooperation and development for water, food and energy security… e.g. reduced conflicts 4. Beyond the river Regional economic integration of markets and trade
  • 21. “Balanced” approach Zambezi River basin development 21 SAPP: Southern Africa Power Pool investment plan
  • 22. Development Opportunities Balanced scenario 22 A balanced approach combining hydropower, irrigation and other investments requires trade-offs between regions/sectors agreed overall benefits maximised Investments totalling about $16.1bn over 15yrs NPV = $110m Return on investment = 10%
  • 23. 23 Existing and Potential HEPs
  • 24. 24 Existing and Potential HEPs Zambezi mainstream
  • 25. Current and Potential Hydropower 25 Coordinated operation of existing dams = 7% increase in firm energy adding $585m over 30 yrs At no added cost! Current Potential Installed HEP generation capacity 5,000 MW half of SAPP HEP 13,000 MW With potential investments of $10.6 bn Increase in average energy production 30,000 GWh/yr 90,000GWh/yr Increase in firm energy production 23,000 GWh/yr 58,000 GWh/yr
  • 26. Current and Potential Irrigation 26 Current Identified 100 ha 1,000 ha 10,000 ha 100,000 ha
  • 27. Current and Potential Irrigation 27 Current Potential With potential investments: $2.5 bn Increase average area irrigated from 260,000 ha/yr 775,000 ha/yr New job creation: >500,000 jobs in the agriculture sector
  • 28. Other opportunities/benefits 28 Disaster Risk Reduction: Hydropower and irrigation interventions will increase resilience with est $1 bn reduced losses to floods, droughts and climate change Navigation: reduced costs and improved opportunities for development through river navigation, and bridges Environmental management: flow management in the delta, improved fisheries and basin-wide e-flows, etc. Fisheries production lake and deltas Water supply for people and industry >1,000m3/yr for Botswana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe Mining potential negative impacts to water quality to be mitigated, and reduced-cost transportation/navigation options to be explored Tourism
  • 29. 29 Next steps:
  • 30. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now 30 Clearly demonstrate the added-value of collaboration in river basin management and development Investors are ready and willing The people are waiting ZAMCOM to deliver tangible results in 3 key areas:
  • 31. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now 31 1. Effective ZAMCOM governance: Institutional arrangements, legal frameworks, political will and financial support – including from member countries everything is in place now need to make it work
  • 32. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now 32 2. Shared data, information and knowledge platforms Shared data and information system - ZAMWIS Agreed basin-wide decision-support systems for basin development planning, real-time monitoring for flow synchronisation, and flood forecasting and early warning systems
  • 33. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now 33 3. Develop and agree the “Zambezi Strategic Plan” A “rolling” strategic planning process Base the plan on broad basin-wide stakeholder consultations A plan which identifies, categorises and prioritises investment projects and programmes for managing and developing the water/related resources of the Basin Investments the 3-“I”s: 1. Information and knowledge, 2. Institutions - arrangements and capacity-building, and 3. Infrastructure Engage the decision-makers Leverage additional benefits and additional investments
  • 34. Selected References 34 • SADC. 2011. Dam Synchronisation and Flood Releases in the Zambezi River Basin Project. • Sadoff, C.W. and Grey, D. 2005. Cooperation on international rivers: A continuum for securing and sharing benefits. IWRA, International Water, Vol. 30, No. 4. 8 pp. • World Bank. 2010. The Zambezi River Basin: a Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis. http://water.worldbank.org/node/83707 • SADC-WD/ZRA. 2008. Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin. http://www.zambezicommission.org/downloads/Zambezi%20River%20Basi n%20IWRM%20Strategy%20ZAMSTRAT.pdf
  • 35. Thank you!35