Manhattan First Quarter 2011 Real Estate Market Report

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Douglas Elliman Manhattan First Quarter 2011 Real Estate Market Report

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Manhattan First Quarter 2011 Real Estate Market Report

  1. 1. 1Q-2011 quarterly survey of co-op and condo Manhattan sales Co-ops & Condos Manhattan Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr • ore sales than last year at this time M Average Sales Price $1,331,306 -10.2% $1,482,650 -6.7% $1,426,994 A total of 2,394 sales closed in the Average Price per Sq Ft $1,025 -3.2% $1,058 -1.3% $1,038 first quarter of 2011, 0.4% and 4.3% Median Sales Price $782,071 -7.4% $845,000 -9.9% $868,000 more than the prior year and prior New Development $1,340,000 26.3% $1,060,738 15.5% $1,160,000 quarters, respectively. The pending Re-sale $725,000 -9.4% $800,000 -12.7% $830,000 sales index jumped 12.5% above the Number of Sales 2,394 4.3% 2,295 0.4% 2,384 last quarter of 2010. Days on Market (From Last List Date) 127 2.2% 125 3.3% 123 • rice indicators slipped as federal P Listing Discount (From Last List Price) 4.5% 8.0% 5.3% tax credit impact wanes Median sales Listing Inventory 7,605 5.2% 7,232 -5.3% 8,027 price declined 9.9% to $728,071 from Absorption Rate (mos) 9.5 0.0% 9.5 -5.9% 10.1 the same period last year. Price per Pending Price Index (4Q 08 base) 0.90 -3.2% 0.93 7.1% 0.84 square foot slipped 1.3% over the same Pending Sales Index (4Q 08 base) 1.75 12.5% 1.59 -14.2% 2.04 period. The pending price index slipped from the prior quarter. QUARTERLY AVERAGE SALES PRICE MANHATTAN NUMBER OF SALES $2,000,000 5,000 • ewer listings available for sale F $1,600,000 4,000 Listing inventory fell 5.3% to its lowest $1,200,000 3,000 first quarter total in 3 years as the number of days to sell a property edged $800,000 2,000 nominally higher by 4 days to 127, $400,000 1,000 below the ten year average of 132. $0 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11There were more sales in the first quarter of 2011 period a year ago. sales price for the first quarter was $782,071,than in any first quarter in 3 years or since the down 9.9% from the same period last year. Price The primary price PRICE INDEX PENDING indicators declined over the MANHATTAN PENDING SALES INDEXcredit crunch in 2008. There were 2,394 sales in per square foot averaged $1,025 in the first past year reflecting the impact of the federal 1.00 3.0the quarter, 0.4% more than 2,384 in the same quarter, slipping 1.3% over the same period. homebuyers tax credit. The first half of 2010 saw 2.5period a year ago and 4.3% more than 2,295 in 0.95 an0.90 increase in sales activity pressing prices higher The amount of active listing inventory is 2.0 its atthe prior quarter. The pending sales index—anaggregate of collected contract data presented as buyers sought to sign contracts by April 30th lowest level for a first quarter since 2007. There 0.85 1.5in index form—indicated a 10.1% increase from in 2010. This “poached” some demand from the were 7,605 listings in the first quarter of 2011, 0.80 1.0the prior quarter, but activity was 14.2% lower sales activity normally seen over the summer and 5.3% below the 8,027 listings in the same period 0.75 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0.5than the same period a year ago. Market share fall and drove prices higher. Once the stimulus last year. The combination of declining inventoryfor new development sales slipped to 14.5% was removed, the second half of the year saw and modest gains in sales activity effectedof all sales down from 16.6% during the same weaker overall conditions inABSORTION RATE MANHATTAN MONTHLY comparison. Median the monthly absorption rate—the number of CO OP CONDO 25 20 The Douglas Elliman Report series is recognized as the industry standard for providing 15 (9.9 Month Rate, 10-year average) the state of the residential real estate market10 the New York City metropolitan region. in 5 The report includes an extensive suite of tools to help readers objectively identify and 0 measure market trends, provide historical context <500K to current information and provide $500K-$999K $1M-$1.49M 1.5M-$1.99M $2M-$2.99M $3M-$4.99M $5M-$9.99M $10M+ comprehensive analysis of the results. MANHATTAN CO OP AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE by Miller Samuel Inc. Prepared WESTSIDE UPTOWN $1,500 Appraisal and consulting services covering the New York City metropolitan area $1,200
  2. 2. $800,000 2,000 $400,000 1,000 $400,000 1,000 $0 01Q-2011 $0 01 02 03 04 05 06 The Douglas Elliman Report • Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op & Condo Sales 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 0 QUARTERLY AVERAGE SALES PRICE MANHATTAN NUMBER OF SALES $2,000,000 5,000 PENDING PRICE INDEX MANHATTAN PENDING SALES INDEXmonths to sell all active listing inventory at the PENDING PRICE INDEX MANHATTAN PENDING SALES INDEX 4,000 $1,600,000 3.0 1.00current pace of sales—which fell to 9.5 months 3.0 1.00 $1,200,000 3,000 0.95 2.5from 10.1 months in the same period last year. 0.95 $800,000 2.5 2,000The current rate is slightly faster than the 9.9 0.90 2.0 $400,000 0.90 2.0 1,000average absorption rate of the past 10 years or 0.85 1.5 0.85 $0 0 1.540 quarters. 0.80 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1.0 0.80 1.0Mortgage lending remains unusually tight and 0.75 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0.5 0.75 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0.5unemployment, while generally improving,remains elevated. Both factors have kept PENDING PRICE INDEX MANHATTAN PENDING SALES INDEXsales activity from posting significant gains. MANHATTAN MONTHLY ABSORTION RATE CO OP CONDO MANHATTAN MONTHLY ABSORTION RATE 1.00 CO OP CONDO 3.0 25Although Wall Street bonuses declined, overall 25 0.95 2.5compensation actually increased 5%. This 20 20 0.90 2.0resulted in an increased visibility at the high end 15 (9.9 Month Rate, 10-year average) 15 0.85 1.5of the housing market. The performance of this 10 (9.9 Month Rate, 10-year average) 10 1.0regional economic engine is a key reason that 0.80 5 5the Manhattan housing market continues to 0.75 0 1Q 09 <500K $500K-$999K 09 2Q 09 3Q $1M-$1.49M 09 1.5M-$1.99M 4Q 1Q 10 2Q 10 $2M-$2.99M 3Q 10 $3M-$4.99M4Q 10 $5M-$9.99M 11 1Q $10M+ 0.5 0outperform the US housing market. <500K $500K-$999K $1M-$1.49M 1.5M-$1.99M $2M-$2.99M $3M-$4.99M $5M-$9.99M $10M+ MANHATTAN MONTHLY ABSORTION RATE CO OP CONDO Co-ops Co-op Market Matrix 25 Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr • umber of sales surged yet listing N Average Sales Price OP AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN CO 20 $1,044,730 -13.0% DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN $1,200,589 -7.8% $1,133,715 MANHATTAN CO OP AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT $1,500 DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN inventory edged higher Co-ops sales Average Price Per Sq Ft 15 $896 -3.4% $928 -1.3% $908 $1,500 (9.9 Month Rate, 10-year average) jumped 28.7% to 1,430 from 1,111 in the $1,200 Median Sales Price $642,500 -6.2% $685,000 -6.2% $685,000 10 $1,200 same period last year yet listing inventory $900 Number of Sales 5 1,430 20.6% 1,186 28.7% 1,111 increased 5% as more sellers looked to $900 $600 Days on Market (From Last List Date) 119 0.8% 118 8.2% 110 take advantage of the spring market. 0 $600 <500K $500K-$999K $1M-$1.49M 1.5M-$1.99M $2M-$2.99M $3M-$4.99M $5M-$9.99M $10M+ $300 Listing Discount (From Last List Price) 2.4% 5.8% 3.8% • ll price indicators declined from A $300 Listing Inventory $0 3,998 8.4% 3,687 5.0% 3,809 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 prior year and prior quarter Median $0 Absorption Rate (mos) 1Q 10 2Q 10 8.4 -9.7% 3Q 10 9.3 10 -18.4% 4Q 1Q 11 10.3 sales price fell 6.2% to $642,500 from $685,000 in the prior year quarter as MANHATTAN CO OP AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN CONDO AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT DOWNTOWN DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN WESTSIDE UPTOWN the impact of the tax credit expiration MANHATTAN CONDO AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT $1,500 $2,000 DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN continued. $2,000 $1,200 $1,600 • ays on market expanded as listing D $1,600 $900 $1,200 discount declined Co-op apartments $1,200 $600 $800 took an average of 119 days to sell or 9 $800 $300 days longer than last year. Despite the $400 $400 increase, the difference between asking $0 $0 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 price and sales price declined. $0 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 QUiNtiLeS % Chg Prior MANHATTAN CONDO AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FTCo-op apt. Mix EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN Median Sales price Current Qtr Year Qtr DOWNTOWN % of Total Median PriceAll price indicators in the first quarter were below by No. of Sales $2,000 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LOFT ABSORPTION RATEthe levels seen in the same period last year. The AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT -11.6%MANHATTAN LOFT 5/5 $1,900,000 Studio 16% $347,500 ABSORPTION RATE 10 $1,400 $1,600 4/5price per square foot of a Manhattan co-op sale $1,400 $925,000 -7.4% 1 bedroom 40% $535,000 10 $1,300 $1,200 3/5 8was $896, 1.3% less than $908 in the prior $1,300 $625,000 -6.7% 2 bedroom 34% $995,000 8 $1,200 $800 2/5 6year quarter. The decline in the price indicators $1,200 $466,250 -6.6% 3 bedroom 8% $1,745,000 6 $1,1001/5 $400 4was partially attributable to the decline in market $310,000 -2.8% 4+ bedroom 2% $5,700,000 $1,100 4share of high-end co-op apartment sales. The $1,000 $0 2 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 double digit $1,000 year over year declines in median absorption rate fell sharply to 8.4 months2from3 or more bedroom co-op market comprised $900 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0 sales price. $900 10.3 months last year at this1Qtime. A 0 lower10% of all co-op sales in the first quarter, down 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 11from 13% in the prior year quarter and down The number of sales increased 28.7% over the absorption rate suggests that the market has AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LOFT ABSORPTION RATEfrom 14% in the prior quarter. In addition to the AVERAGE PRICE quarterly total in MANHATTAN LUXURY its efficiency with RATEincrease year to 1,430, the largest PER SQ FT more been improving ABSORPTION the $1,400AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LUXURY ABSORPTION RATE 10shift in the mix to 2-bedrooms and studios, the $2,600 than 3 years, outpacing the 5% year over year in purchase activity outpacing the increase in 25 $2,600 $1,300 8 253-bedroom market was the only segment to post gain in listing inventory. As a result, the monthly listings coming $2,400 on the market. 20 $2,400 $1,200 6 20 $2,200 15 $2,200 $1,100 4 15 Visit our website to$2,000 browse listings and learn more about market trends 10 $2,000 $1,000 2 10 $1,800 5
  3. 3. $2,000,000 10 5,000 $1,600,000 5 4,000 $1,200,000 Report • Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op & Condo Sales The Douglas 0 Elliman <500K $500K-$999K $1M-$1.49M 1.5M-$1.99M $2M-$2.99M $3M-$4.99M $5M-$9.99M 1Q-2011 $10M+ 3,000 $800,000 2,000 $400,000 1,000 $0 0 Condos CoNdo Market Matrix 01 02 Current Qtr MANHATTAN CO OP AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT % Chg 03 04 Prior Qtr % Chg 05 06 Prior Year Qtr DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN 07 08 09 10 11 Average Sales Price $1,500 $1,756,414 -1.6% $1,784,296 3.9% $1,690,399 • ll price indictors posted gains A Average Price Per Sq Ft $1,216 1.5% $1,198 5.4% $1,154 from prior year Price per square foot $1,200 Median PENDING PRICE INDEX Sales Price MANHATTAN $1,150,000 15.2% PENDING SALES INDEX $997,885 8.0% $1,065,000 increased 5.4% to $1,216 from $1,154 in $900 Number of Sales 1.00 964 -13.1% 1,109 -24.3% 3.0 1,273 the prior year quarter. $600 Days on Market (From Last List Date) 0.95 140 6.1% 132 3.7% 135 2.5 • umber of sales dropped as supply N $300 Listing Discount (From Last List Price) 7.7% 10.4% 6.7% 0.90 2.0 was limited Number of sales fell 24.3% $0 Listing Inventory 1Q 10 3,607 1.7% 3,545 10 -14.5% 4,218 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 1Q 11 0.85 1.5 from the same period last year as listing Absorption Rate (mos) 11.2 16.7% 9.6 13.1% 9.9 0.80 1.0 inventory fell 14.5% to second lowest level in more than 5 years. MANHATTAN CONDO AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ10 0.75 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q FT DOWNTOWN 10 2Q 10 3Q EASTSIDE WESTSIDE 4Q 10 1Q 11 0.5 UPTOWN $2,000 • roperties took slightly longer to sell P $1,600 and listing discount grew Days on MANHATTAN MONTHLY ABSORTION RATE $1,200 CO OP CONDO market averaged 140 days, 5 days longer 25 $800 than in the prior year quarter as average 20 $400 listing discount increased to 7.7%. 15 $0 (9.9 Month Rate, 10-year average) 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 10All price indicators increased in the first quarter 5 QUiNtiLeS % Chg Prior Median Sales price 0 Current Qtr Co-op apt. Mix % of Total Median Pricewhen compared to the same period last year. by No. of Sales <500K $500K-$999K $1M-$1.49M Qtr Year 1.5M-$1.99M $2M-$2.99M $3M-$4.99M $5M-$9.99M $10M+ AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LOFT ABSORPTION RATEThe median sales price of a Manhattan condo 5/5 $3,696,247 6.4% Studio 8% $495,000 $1,400 10was $1,150,000, 8% higher than $1,065,000 in 4/5 $1,882,381 14.1% 1-bedroom 31% $725,000 $1,300 8the prior year quarter. The increase was largely 3/5 $1,152,541 2.4% 2-bedroom 44% $1,451,006 $1,200 6due to a jump in market share of 2-bedroom MANHATTAN CO OP $745,375 PRICE PER SQ FT 2/5 AVERAGE -1.9% 3-bedroom DOWNTOWN 11% $2,850,000 EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN $1,100 4apartments in the first quarter to 44% of all 1/5 $1,500 $505,000 3.8% 4+ bedroom 6% $4,650,000 $1,000 2condo sales from 34% in the same period last $1,200 Days on market took 5 days longer in the first properties that closed in the quarter.year, the highest market share in two years. $900 $900 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0There were 2.1% to 14.2% price increases quarter of 2010, averaging 140 days from 135 Listing inventory in the first quarter fell 14.5% $600across all size categories with the exception days in the prior year quarter. The constraint on to 3,607 units from the prior year quarter, the $300of the most volatile category of 4+ bedrooms, inventory allowed PRICE sales toFT absorbed second lowest level ABSORPTION RATE in more AVERAGE older PER SQ be MANHATTAN LUXURY of active inventory $0 $2,600 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 25which fell 17.7% over the same period. pushing the average days on market higher for than five years. $2,400 20 $2,200 15 Lofts MANHATTAN CONDO AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT Loft Market Matrix $2,000 $2,000 Current Qtr DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr 10 • ore sales activity than same time M Average Sales Price $1,889,996 -9.4% $2,086,120 -7.4% $2,040,263 5 $1,800 $1,600 last year Sales increased 5% to 189 Average Price Per Square Foot $1,101 2.8% $1,071 -1.8% $1,121 $1,600 $1,200 0 Median Sales Price 10 1Q 2Q 10 $1,500,000 3Q 10 -4.0% 4Q 10 $1,563,013 7.1% 1Q 11 $1,400,000 from 180 in the same period a year ago $800 Number of Sales 189 11.8% 169 5.0% 180 and 11.8% more than 169 in the prior Days on Market (From Last List Date) $400 131 0.0% 131 -10.3% 146 quarter. Listing Discount (From Last List Price) $0 5.3% 5.8% 3.3% 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 • rice indicators were mixed From the P Listing Inventory 469 0.4% IN FOCUS PERCENT OF SALES SOLD ABOVE LAST LIST PRICE 467 -15.6% 556 first quarter last year, the median sales Absorption Rate (mos) 18 7.4 -10.8% 8.3 -20.4% 9.3 price increased 7.1% to $1,500,000 and 15 the average price per square foot fell 12 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LOFT ABSORPTION RATE 1.8% to $1,101. $1,400 9 10 $1,300 6 8 • nventory fell as properties sold more I 3 $1,200 6 quickly There were 15.6% fewer listings 0 in the first quarter than last year at this $1,100 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 4 time as days on market declined by 15 $1,000 2 days to 131. $900 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0 Note: This sub-category analyzes all co-op & condo loft sales available. The data is also contained within the co-op & condo markets presented. Se ing Original List Price & Impact on Days on Market Difference in Days Between Original & Last List BELOW SALES PRICE SAME AS SALES PRICE ABOVE SALES PRICE DOM (from Last List) DOM (from Original List) DIFFERENCE AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LUXURY ABSORPTION RATE Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends 300 300 150 $2,600 25 240 240 120 $2,400 20
  4. 4. $800 $0 $0 $800 10 1Q 1Q 10 2Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 1Q 11 $400 $4001Q-2011 $0 The Douglas Elliman Report • Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op & Condo Sales $0 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 1Q 11 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT SQ FTMANHATTAN LOFT LOFTABSORPTION RATE RATE AVERAGE PRICE PER MANHATTAN ABSORPTION $1,400 $1,400 10 10 Luxury $1,300 $1,300 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LOFT LUxUry Market PRICE PER SQ FT Current Qtr AVERAGE Matrix ABSORPTION8RATE 8 MANHATTAN LOFT Prior QtrABSORPTION RATE Year Qtr % Chg % Chg Prior 10 $1,200 $1,400 $1,200 6 6 • rice indicators were mixed P $1,400 Average Sales Price $5,114,866 -16.7% $6,141,426 -7.8% 10 $5,550,494 $1,100 $1,300 $1,100 4 8 4 From the same quarter last year, Average Price Per Square Foot $1,300 $1,899 -9.6% $2,101 1.0% $1,881 8 $1,200 $1,000 Median Sales Price $1,000 6 median sales price fell 13.8% to $1,200 $3,950,000 -9.2% $4,350,000 -13.8% 2 $4,582,125 2 6 $1,100 of Sales 4 $3,950,000 as price per square $900 Number 10 $900 $1,1001Q 1Q 10 2Q 10 2Q 10 239 3Q 10 3Q 10 3.9% 4Q 10 230 1Q 11 4Q 10 1.7% 1Q 0 11 0 235 4 Days on Market (From Last List Date) $1,000 128 -9.9% 142 -33.7% 2193 foot increased 1% to $1,899. $1,000 2 Listing Discount (From Last List Price) 5.6% 11.0% 0 3.6% $900 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 • isting inventory fell sharply L $900 PRICE PER SQ FT SQ 2Q 10 Listing AVERAGE PRICE PER AVERAGE Inventory 1Q 10 MANHATTAN LUXURYLUXURY 4Q979 FT 1,025 3Q 10 MANHATTAN 4.7% ABSORPTION RATE 1Q RATE 1,502 -31.8% 10 ABSORPTION 11 0 The amount of active inventory fell $2,600 Absorption Rate (mos) $2,600 12.9 0.8% 12.8 -32.8% 25 19.2 25 31.8% from the same period last year, $2,400 $2,400 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LUXURY ABSORPTION RATE 20 20 the second lowest total since Lehman, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LUXURY ABSORPTION RATE $2,600 $2,200 $2,200 15 25 15 after the fourth quarter of 2010. $2,600 25 $2,000 $2,400 $2,000 10 20 10 $2,400 20 • roperty sold more quickly P $2,200 15 $1,800 $1,800 5 5 The average days on market was $2,200 15 $1,600 $2,000 $1,600 10 10 128 in the first quarter, more than 1Q $2,000 1Q 10 2Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 1Q 11 0 0 10 $1,800 5 2 months faster than the same $1,800 5 $1,600 0 period a year ago. $1,600 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 Note: This sub-category analyzes the top 10% of all co-op & condo sales. Data is also contained within the co-op and condo markets presented. IN FOCUS FOCUS PERCENT OF SALES SOLD LAST LIST PRICE PRICE IN PERCENT OF SALES SOLD ABOVE ABOVE LAST LIST 18 18 in-foCus 15 15 IN FOCUS PERCENT OF SALES SOLD ABOVE LAST LIST PRICE • small number of sales go for more 12 A 12 FOCUS PERCENT OF SALES SOLD ABOVE LAST LIST PRICE IN 18 18 than list price In the first quarter, 6.8% 9 9 15 15 of all sales exceeded the list price at time6 6 12 3 12 3 of contract. 9 0 9 0 • riginal list price does influence the O 3Q 608 3Q 08 4Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 1Q 09 2Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 1Q 10 2Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 1Q 11 6 3 time it takes to sell In the first quarter, 3 0 a property that sold for what it was listed 0 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 for sold an average of 43 days faster than one priced above market levels. Se ing Original List Price List Price onImpact on Days on Market Se ing Original & Impact & Days on Market Difference in Days Between Original &Original & Last List Difference in Days Between Last List BELOW SALES PRICE SAME AS SALES PRICE ABOVE SALES PRICE BELOW SALES PRICE SAME AS SALES PRICE ABOVE SALES PRICE DOM (from Last List) DOM (from DOMList) Original List) Original List) Last (from DOM (from DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE • otal listing time to the market T 300 300 ing Original List Price & Impact on Days on Market 300 300 150 150 Se Difference in Days Between Original & Last List dropped as sellers prices became 240 240 ing Original List Price & Impact on Days on Market Se BELOW SALES PRICE SAME AS SALES PRICE ABOVE SALES PRICE 240 Difference in Days Between Original & Last List 240 DOM (from Last List) 120 DOM (from Original List) 120 DIFFERENCE more realisitic While days on market, 180 180 SALES PRICE SAME AS SALES PRICE BELOW 300 ABOVE SALES PRICE 180 180 (from Last List) DOM (from Original List) 90 DIFFERENCE DOM 300 90 150 using the last price change, is stable, 300 120 300 120 60 150 60 120 120 240 240 120 days on market from original list date has 60 240 60 60 240 60 30 120 30 180 180 90 dropped by 50 days. 0 180 180 90 1Q 100 120 1Q 10 2Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 1Q 11 0 1Q 100 2Q 10 120 1Q 10 3Q 10 2Q 10 4Q 10 3Q 10 1Q 114Q 10 0 1Q 11 060 120 120 60 60 60 30In any market, weak or active, there are usually were 60 “above list”. In the most recent quarter, days faster 60 if priced above market value. than 30 0 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0properties that sell for more than asking price at 6.8%0 of1Q 10 all sales exceeded10 price compared 3Q list 4Q 10 0 1Q 10 1Q 11 0 2Q 10 1Q 11 Overpricing a property has long proved to be 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10the time of the contract. During the third quarter to 7.6% equal to list price and 85.6% below list counterproductive for the seller. While daysof 2008, just prior to the onset of the credit price. on market from the last date the price wascrunch at the end of that quarter, 15.5% of all The original list price impacts the marketing time changed, if ever, to contract date has remainedproperties sold “above list”, 36.1% sold “equal to of the property, regardless of what price changes relatively stable over the past year, the days onlist” and 48.3% sold “below list”. In the second subsequently occur. In the first quarter of 2011, market from the original list date to contract datequarter of 2009, one of the weakest points in the average days on market for a property that declined 50 days.the post-Lehman housing market, 2.7% of sales was originally priced at market value sold 43©2011 Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Inc. All worldwide rights reserved. eastside 980 Madison Ave. 212.650.4800 • 575 Madison Ave. 212.891.7000 Midtown 425 East 58th St. 212.832.1666 205 East 42nd St. 212.692.6111 • 485 Madison Ave. 212.350.8500 westside 1995 Broadway 212.362.9600 • 2142Prudential Douglas Elliman Miller Samuel Inc.Real Estate Real Estate Appraisers Broadway 212.769.2004 • 2169 Frederick Douglass Blvd. 212.865.1100 downtown 90 Hudson St. 212.965.6000 • 26575 Madison Avenue 21 West 38th Street West 17 St. 212.645.4040 • 137 Waverly Pl. 212.206.2800 • 51 East 10 St. 212.995.5357 • 690 Washington St. 212.352.5252New York, NY 10022 New York, NY 10018 BrookLyn 156 Montague St. 718.780.8100 • 189 Court St. 718.522.2929 • 299 Bedford Ave. 718.486.4400 • 154 Seventh212.891.7000 212.768.8100elliman.com millersamuel.com Ave. 718.840.2000 664 Fulton Street 718.780.8100 Bronx 3265 Johnson Ave. Riverdale 718.884.5815 rentaL 485 Madison Ave. 212.350.8500 reLoCation 575 Madison Ave. 212.891.HOMEFor more information or electronic copies of this report please visitelliman.com/marketreports. Email report author Jonathan Miller atjmiller@millersamuel.com with questions or comments.

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