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European Air Cargo Perspectives   Dick Van Den Berg
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European Air Cargo Perspectives Dick Van Den Berg

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    European Air Cargo Perspectives   Dick Van Den Berg European Air Cargo Perspectives Dick Van Den Berg Presentation Transcript

    • European Air Cargo Perspectives 30th Annual FAA Aviation Forecast Conference March 18, 2005 Dick van den Berg Senior Business Analyst KLM Cargo
    • The year 2004
      • 2004 was memorable year for air transport:
        • Merger of Air France and KLM
        • Highest growth in a decade
        • Emergence of the new economic super power China
        • Fuel prices reach high new highs
        • US dollar continues downward trend
    • Air France - KLM Air France - KLM Group Air France KLM Passengers Maintenance Cargo
      • One Company
      • 2 Airlines
      • 2 Hubs: Paris and Amsterdam
      • 3 Businesses
      • The Cargo Business will have an unified management body:
        • This is called “European House”
        • This team will be in charge of network management, marketing and sales
    • Air France - KLM
      • AF-KL is world’s largest airline group in international FTK
      • 3 of top-5 are from Asia
      • Korean Air is now larger than Lufthansa
    • Air France - KLM
      • AF-KL is world’s largest airline group in international RPK
      • 3 of top-5 airlines are from Europe
    • Air France - KLM
      • KLM wide body fleet
        • 3 B747 freighter
        • 17 B747 combi
        • 5 B747 full pax
        • 10 MD-11
        • 10 B777
        • 11 B767
      • Air France wide body fleet
        • 13 B747 freighter
        • 16 B747 full pax
        • 35 B777
        • 37 A330/340
      Total capacity (freighter+combi+belly) is similar to 35 B747Fs
    • Air Cargo Growth
      • Air freight growth shows a “roller coaster ride”
      • 2004 was best year of the last 10 years: +15% FTK
      • Forecast for 2005 and 2006 is lower growth
    • Growth of Air Cargo
      • Correlation with GDP growths hard to find
      • Manufacturing trade gives good correlation
    • Growth of Air Cargo
      • The growth of air freight correlates well with the growth of semiconductors
      • The crisis of 2001 was mainly a high tech market crisis
    • European Growth
      • Why is FTK growth in Europe high while GDP growth is low?
      • It is the dollar! And China’s currency is pegged to US $
          • Jan 1, 2004 1 euro = 1.26 US$
          • Jan 1, 2005 1 euro = 1.36 US$
          • Purchasing power in US$ increased by 8%
      • USA and Europe compared:
      • Growth of air transport and car sales in Europe is not lower than in USA
    • European Growth China will overtake the USA as Europe’s largest import country
      • Imports from China are rising fast
      • China will become dominant in European imports
    • European Growth
      • Rising imports from China are reflected in the air freight data
      • Other Asian markets show much lower growth
    • European Growth Ports: Airports: 1. Rotterdam 1. Frankfurt 2. Hamburg 2. London 3. Antwerp 3. Paris 4. Bremen 4. Amsterdam Sea trade grows faster than air trade in Europe
    • European Growth
      • In Europe there are 8 large freight hubs within 500km
      • These 8 hubs are the largest cargo airports in Europe
    • Amsterdam Airport Amsterdam Stockholm Vienna Rome London Paris Madrid Munich Economic development in Europe Shaded Areas Indicate Economic Activity
    • European Distribution Centers Netherlands is market leader! The Netherlands: Gateway to Europe 611 American E 611 American E D D Cs Cs Amsterdam Airport UK UK Netherlands Netherlands Belgium Belgium Germany Germany France France Other Other 12% 12% 13% 13% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 57% 57% 344 Asian E E D D Cs Cs 4% 4% 56% 56% 12% 12% 22% 22% 5% 5% 1% 1% UK UK Netherlands Netherlands Belgium Belgium Germany Germany France France Other Other
    • Amsterdam Airport
      • Amsterdam 17th century
      Amsterdam 21st century The Dutch always excelled in trade and transport
    • Amsterdam Airport
      • China is 47% of growth
      • Import growth is 3 times export growth
      • Amsterdam is now number 1 airport in Europe for China air freight
    • Amsterdam Airport China is now larger than the USA for Amsterdam imports Exports to China are much lower than to USA
    • Air France - KLM Future Growth
      • Cornerstones of KLM Cargo Network Strategy
      • Exploit the position of Amsterdam Schiphol Airport
        • In heart of Europe and good facilities
        • Large trucking network in Europe
      • Combination of freighter, combi and belly flights
        • large network: 20 main deck + 34 wide-body belly destinations
      • Growth with Skyteam Cargo
        • Largest cargo alliance
        • AeroMexico, Air France, Alitalia, CSA, Delta Air, KLM and Korean Air
      • Growth with special partners
        • NCA, China Southern, NWA, MAS, TNT
    • Air France - KLM Future Growth
      • Air France and KLM plan to growth with market:
        • 4 - 6% annual growth
      • Focus on Far East and China in particular
      • Gradual increase of freighter fleet
      • KLM combi fleet will remain in coming years
      • Increase of wide-body belly capacity
    • Conclusions
      • Air Cargo is growth business with 4-6% annual growth
      • China is exception: booming growth
      • Business cycle of air cargo is dependent on high tech market
      • Growth in Euope is mainly imports from China
      • The Netherlands is primary gateway to Europe for Chinese products
      • KLM Cargo has strong focus on Far East and China
      • Air France - KLM will grow with market and will remain the number 1 airline group for international air cargo