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  • 1. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY i Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change VIETNAM
  • 2. ii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G EEACC Publications and Reports1. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Synthesis Report2. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Social Synthesis Report3. The Cost to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methods and EstimatesCountry Case Studies:1. Bangladesh: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change2. Bolivia: Adaptation to Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment and Economic Aspects3. Ethiopia : Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change4. Ghana: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change5. Mozambique: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change6. Samoa: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change7. Vietnam: Economics of Adaptation to Climate ChangeDiscussion Papers:1. Economics of Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events in Developing Countries2. The Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Infrastructure3. Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change4. Costs of Agriculture Adaptation to Climate Change5. Cost of Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change6. Costs of Adaptation Related to Industrial and Municipal Water Supply and Riverine Flood Protection7. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change-Ecosystem Services8. Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Global Hydrology and Water Availability9. Climate Change Scenarios and Climate Data10. Economics of Coastal Zone Adaptation to Climate Change11. Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Human Health in Developing Countries12. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh13. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bolivia14. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia15. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ghana16. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique17. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Vietnam18. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Identifying Pro-Poor Adaptation Options19. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Pro-Poor Adaptation: Capacity Development Manual
  • 3. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY iEconomics of Adaptationto Climate ChangeVI ETNAM Ministry of Foreign Affairs Government of the Netherlands
  • 4. ii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E© 2010 The World Bank Group1818 H Street, NWWashington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.orgE-mail: feedback@worldbank.orgAll rights reserved.This volume is a product of the World Bank Group. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the dataincluded in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do notimply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries.RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONSThe material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permissionmay be a violation of applicable law. The World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grantpermission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the CopyrightClearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-8400; fax 978-750-4470;Internet: www.copyright.com.All images © The World Bank Photo Library, exceptPages 28, 40, 72, and inside back cover © Shutterstock
  • 5. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY iiiContentsAcronyms viiAcknowledgments ixExecutive Summary xi1 Introduction 12 Projections of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise 5Regional Projections 5National Projections 6Climate Scenarios 93 Agriculture 11The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production 15The Macroeconomic Consequences of Climate Change 19Adaptation to Climate Change 22Macroeconomic Effects of Adaptation 264 Aquaculture 29The Growth of Aquaculture in Vietnam 29The Impact of Climate Change on Aquaculture 32Economic Analysis of Adaptation 375 Forestry 43The Impact of Climate Change on Forests 44Adaptation Measures in the Forestry Sector 516 Adaptation at the Local Level: Social Analysis 55Social Vulnerability to Climate Change 55Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level: A Social Analysis 66
  • 6. iv E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E7 Coastal Ports 73Coastal Ports and Sea Level Rise 73Adaptation Costs and Options 758 Lessons Learned 77References 80Annexes (available on line at www.worldbank.org/eacc)TablesES-1. Regional Vulnerability to Climate Change xiiES-2. Change in Crop Production in 2050 due to Climate Change with No Adaptation xivES-3. Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change Without/with Adaptation in 2050 xv1. Projected Climate Change for Southeast Asia, 2080–99 against 1980–99 52. Projected Increases in Annual Average Temperatures relative to 1980–99 73. Projected Changes in Annual Rainfall relative to 1980–99 74. Projected Sea Level Rise in Vietnam 75. Increases in Annual Average Temperatures by Climate Scenario and Zone 86. Increases in Annual Precipitation by Climate Scenario and Zone 87. Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture 118. Exposure to Hydro-climatic Risks by Agroecological Zone 129. Harvested Areas and Crop Yields by Agroecological Zones, 2007 1310. Percentage Shares of Crop Production by Agroecological Zone, 2007 1311. Typical Seasonal Crop Rotations by Agroecological Zone 1412. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields 1713. Impact of Yield Changes on Production by Scenario in 2030 and 2050 1814. Total Impact of Climate Change on Production by Scenario in 2050 1815. Population, GDP and Employment Projections, 2005–50 2016. Changes in Baseline GDP and Aggregate Consumption due to Climate Change 2117. Changes in Value-Added by Sector due to Climate Change 2118. Changes in Household Consumption by Income Group due to Climate Change 2219. Expansion in Crop Irrigation by 2050 2520. Changes in Real GDP and Aggregate Consumption Without/with Adaptation 2521. Present Values of Changes in Aggregate Consumption 2722. Adaptation Results by Sector and Region, 2050 2723. Changes in Household Consumption by Income Group Without/with Adaptation 27
  • 7. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY v24. Aquaculture Development Targets up to 2020 3225. Main Salinity and Temperature Requirements for Catfish and Shrimp 3426. Estimates of Catfish Pond Area (ha) that will be Subjected to Increments 36 of Maximum Flooding Depths in the Rainy Season under 50-cm SLR Scenario 3727. Land Use Types that will be Subjected to > 4 ppt Maximum Salinity Intrusion 43 in the Dry Season under 50-cm SLR Scenario28. Forest Area and Cover by Region, 2006 4429. Classification of Forest Types by Location and Climate Characteristics 4830. Impact of Climate Change on Stand Volumes of 7-year Acacia mangium 4831. Estimated Areas Climatically Suited to some Forest Types 4932. Dependency on Different Income Streams by Region 5833. Regional Distribution of Minority Populations 5934. Statistics on Female Status by Region 6035. Literacy and Education Rates, 2001 6336. Household Access to Water, 2005 6437. Drivers and Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Ports 75Figures1. Framework for Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change 152. Flood Inundation with 30 cm Sea Level Rise in the Mekong Delta 163. Value of Production from Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture 294. Aquaculture Area and Production in Vietnam’s Southern Provinces, 2009 305. Value of (a) Brackish Water and (b) Catfish Produced in the Mekong River Delta 316. Global Warming and Fisheries/Aquaculture: Potential Impacts 337. Areas in An Giang, Dong Thap and Can Tho Provinces Subjected to Increments 35 of Maximum Flooding Depths for 50-cm SLR Scenario8. Areas Subjected to Increments of Maximum Water Salinity for 50-cm SLR scenario 369. Steps in the Economic Analysis 3810. Reduction in Net Income from Catfish Farming due to Climate Change 39 without Adaptation 11. Reduction in Net Income from Shrimp Farming due to Climate Change 39 without Adaptation 12. Poverty Map of Vietnam at District Level 5713. Survey Location 6714. Most Important Seaports 7415. Volume and Distribution of Cargo Throughput 74Boxes1. CGE Modeling 19
  • 8. vi E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
  • 9. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY viiAcronymsADB Asian Development Bank MoLISA Ministry of Labor, Invalids, andAEZ Agroecological Zone Social AffairsCGE Computable general equilibrium MoNRE Ministry of Natural Resources and EnvironmentCMI Climate moisture index NCAR National Center for AtmosphericCSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Research Industrial Research Organisation NGO Non-governmental organizationDFID Department for International Development (UK) NTP-RCC National Target Program to Respond to Climate ChangeEACC Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change ppt Parts per thousandFHH Female-headed household SIWRP Southern Institute for Water Resources PlanningGCM General circulation model SLR Sea level riseGDP Gross domestic product UNDP United Nations DevelopmentGIS Geographical information system ProgrammeGoV Government of Vietnam VHLSS Vietnam Household LivingGSO General Statistics Office Standards SurveyIAE Institute for Agriculture and VNĐ Vietnamese Đong EnvironmentIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Note: Unless otherwise noted, all dollars are U.S.MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural dollars, all tons are metric tons. Development
  • 10. viii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
  • 11. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY ixAcknowledgmentsThis report is the outcome of a research effort Resources Planning); Philip Adams, James Giesecke,to which both national and international experts Michael Jerie, and Nhi Hoang Tran (Centre ofhave contributed in the context of the Economics Policy Studies, Monash University); To Trung Nghia,of Adaptation of Climate Change study (EACC) Le Hung Nam, Le Hong Tuan, Truong Trongimplemented by the World Bank and funded by Luat, and Vu Dinh Huu (Institute of Water Resourcesthe governments of the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Planning); Pham Quang Ha, Mai Van Trinh,and the United Kingdom. Tran Van The, and Vu Duong Quynh (Institute for Agricultural Environment); Bao Thanh, Luong VanThe team effort in Vietnam was led and coor- Viet, Nguyen Thi Phuong, and Bui Chi Namdinated by Benoit Laplante with the support of (Sub-Institute of Hydrometeorology and EnvironmentHuynh Thi Thanh Thuy. The synthesis report of South Viet Nam); Tuyen Nghiem, Hue Le, andwas edited by Gordon Hughes (Consultant). We Huoung Vu Dieu (Center for Natural Resources andwould like to thank the following individuals and Environmental Studies); Pamela McElwee (Arizonaorganizations: Sergio Margulis (Team leader of State University); Dang Thu Phuong (Challenge tothe EACC study), Douglas J. Graham (Environ- Change); Nguyen Van Be, Le Canh Dung, Nguyenment Country Sector Coordinator), Laurent Hieu Trung, and Sinh Le Xuan (Can Tho Univer-Cretegny, Robin Mearns, Steve Jaffee, Anne sity); Suan Pheng Kam, Marie Caroline Badjeck,Kuriakose, Ian Noble, and Kiran Pandey (Coor- Michael Phillips, and Robert Pomeroy (World Fishdinator EACC country studies) (World Bank); Center); Louise Teh and Lydia The (University ofDavid Corderi (Consultant); Tingju Zhu and Zhe British Columbia); Be Nam Vo Thi (Sub-NationalGuo (International Food Policy Research Institute); Le Institute for Agricultural Planning and Projection); andHeng Nam, Nguyen Thuy Hang, Ha Le Thanh, Hien Than Thi and Hue Nguyen Thu (Centre forand Thuy Dung (Institute of Water Resources Plan- Marinelife Conservation and Community Development).ning); Nguyen Ngoc Anh, Nguyen Xuan Hien, Do We would also like to thank Robert Livernash forDuc Dung, Nguyen Vu Huy, Nguyen Huy Khoi, editorial services, Jim Cantrell for editorial inputThi Lan Huong, Le Ngoc Anh, Tran Duc Dung, and production coordination, and Hugo Mansillaand Cao Thi Tu Trinh (Southern Institute of Water for editorial and production support.
  • 12. x E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
  • 13. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY xiExecutive SummaryThe Economics of Adaptation to Climate et al. 2010, Almeida et al. 2010), social (McElweeChange (EACC) study aims to support countries et al. 2010), and coastal ports (VIMARU 2010).to understand the risks posed by climate change Further details can be found in the individualand to design better strategies to adapt to climate sector reports prepared by teams of national andchange. In doing so, a key objective of the study international experts.is to help decision makers at the national level tointegrate robust adaptation strategies into theirdevelopment plans and budgets in a context of Vulnerability tohigh uncertainty, competing needs, and limited Climate Changefinancial resources. In addition to providing esti-mates of adaptation costs at the global level,1the EACC study has implemented country-level Vietnam is a long narrow country consisting ofstudies for Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, an extensive coastline, two major river deltas, andMozambique, Samoa, and Vietnam.2 mountainous areas on its eastern and northeast- ern borders. Vietnam is heavily exposed to theThis report provides a synthesis of key findings risks of weather variability and climate change.of sector studies undertaken in Vietnam in the Its vulnerability to weather risks has given thecontext of the EACC study. The sector studies country experience in designing and implement-were on agriculture (Zhu & Guo 2010), a separate ing measures to mitigate the effects of droughts,computable general equilibrium [CGE] analysis flooding, storms, and similar events on agriculturebased on agriculture findings (Adams et al. 2010), and other sectors of the economy. Assessing theaquaculture (Kam et al. 2010), forestry (Phuong potential impacts of climate change and deter- mining how best to adapt represents a new chal-1 At the global level, the EACC study estimates that it will cost lenge, for which past experience may be a guide between $70 and $100 billion each year to adapt to climate change over the period 2010 to 2050. but which is accompanied by large uncertainties.2 The study was funded by the governments of the United Kingdom, Netherlands, and Switzerland. Further details may be In June 2009, the Ministry of Natural Resources found at: www.worldbank.org/eacc. In addition, the synthesis report from Vietnam and the six underlying national sector and Environment (MoNRE) published Viet- reports can be downloaded from the Environment site of the nam’s official scenario for climate change. The World Bank’s web site for Vietnam: www.worldbank.org/vn/ environment. MoNRE scenario falls in the middle of a range of
  • 14. xii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table ES-1 Regional Vulnerability to Climate Change North South Central Mekong North- North- Red River Central Central High- South- River west east Delta Coast Coast lands east Delta Region NW NE RRD NCC SCC CHL SE MRD EXPOSURE Storms 1 3 4 4 4 2 2 3 Flooding 1 1 4 4 4 2 2 4 Salinity 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 4 SLR 0 0 2 2 2 0 3 4 Landslides 3 3 1 3 3 2 1 1 Drought 2 2 1 4 4 4 2 2 Average 1.2 1.5 2.2 3.2 3.2 1.7 1.8 3.0 SENSITIVITY Poverty 4 3 2 4 2 4 1 2 Economic 4 4 2 4 3 4 2 2 diversification Education 4 3 1 2 2 2 1 3 Health & 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 sanitation Ethnic 4 3 0 1 1 4 1 2 minorities Women & 4 3 1 2 3 3 1 2 children Migrants 0 0 2 2 1 4 4 1 Urban 0 0 2 1 1 0 4 3 households Average 3.0 2.1 1.5 2.1 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.3alternative climate scenarios for Vietnam when now in the rainy season months, leading to anthese are arranged by their climate moisture increase in the frequency, intensity, and durationindices. In addition to the MoNRE scenario, the of floods, and to an exacerbation of drought prob-EACC study has made use of two other climate lems in the dry season. Sea level is projected to risescenarios—Dry (IPSL-CM4) and Wet (GISS- approximately 30 cm by 2050 and up to 75 cm byER)—which represent the extremes of the distri- 2100 under the medium scenario.bution by climate moisture indices. An analysis of vulnerability to climate change atRainfall projections across seasons are of particu- the sub-national level was carried out as part oflar interest. The dry seasons are projected to get the social analysis. Exposure to climate change isdrier, with the March–May rainfall reductions assessed by considering the number of householdsbeing higher in the southern part of the country; potentially threatened by the effects of storm,the wet seasons are projected to get wetter, with the flooding, salinity intrusion, sea level rise (SLR)June–August rainfall increases being higher in the and storm surges, landslides and flash floods,northern part of the country. Hence, it is expected and drought. Each region is assigned to catego-that rainfall will be concentrated even more than ries ranked from 0 to 4 (low to severe exposure).
  • 15. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY xiiiSimilarly, sensitivity to the impacts of climate is population growth, urbanization, and other vari-assessed on criteria that reflect vulnerability to the ables without climate change. This provides theconsequences of climate change based on specific reference scenario against which the impacts ofsocioeconomic characteristics—poverty, economic climate change without and with adaptation arediversification, education, and health and sani- measured.tation—and for specific social groups, includingethnic minorities, women and children, migrant Step 2: Consider the relevant climate variables forpopulations, and urban populations. Again, each the sector and identify changes projected to 2050region is assigned to categories ranked from 0 to 4 or beyond for each of the climate scenarios. This(low to extreme sensitivity). Unweighted averages makes use of detailed information on precipita-of the classifications were computed to gener- tion by season and/or region.ate indices of exposure and sensitivity. These areshown in Table ES-1 (see also Figure 13 in main Step 3: Identify the impact of changes in climatetext which shows the regions on a map). on resource productivity and land use. This included, for example, the effect of changes inThe analysis indicates that exposure to the effects seasonal temperatures on rice yields or of seasonalof climate change is highest in the Central Coastal precipitation on coffee yields, as well as the effectregions (NCC & SCC) and in the Mekong River of flooding or saline intrusion on the amount ofDelta. On the other hand, sensitivity to the effects land that can be used for rice production in theof climate change is highest in the North-West Mekong River Delta.and Central Highland regions. The correlationbetween exposure and sensitivity is negative, so Step 4: Using geographical information systemsthat regions with high exposure tend to have low (GIS) and other techniques, combine the infor-sensitivity and vice versa. The only region with mation collected in Steps 2 and 3 to estimate theindices that are above the average on both mea- overall impact of climate change on land use andsures is the Mekong River Delta. production by comparing estimates of yields and production under (a) no climate change, and (b) with climate change but no adaptation.Methodology Step 4A: For agriculture, incorporate the resultsThe sectors were chosen based on interest of the from Step 4 into a macroeconomic model to assessGovernment, availability of data, the opportunity the consequences of changes in agricultural outputto pilot different methodological approaches, and on agricultural prices, trade, GDP, economic activ-the feasibility of carrying out an analysis. Some ity in other sectors, and household consumption.other sectors that were not looked at (e.g., urbaninfrastructure) could well be be subject to more Step 5: Identify opportunities for (a) autonomousimportant climate change impacts. Detailed stud- adaptation undertaken by farmers and other pro-ies were carried out for agriculture (crop produc- ducers in responses to changes in climate andtion), aquaculture, forestry, and coastal ports, as other conditions, and (b) planned adaptation,well as a broader study on social vulnerability. which is likely to be initiated and at least partlyEach of the sector studies follows a broadly simi- funded by the government.lar approach with the following steps: Step 6: Estimate the production of crops, timber,Step 1: Establish a baseline scenario consisting of and so on under the new climate conditions afterprojections of land use, production, value-added, the adaptation measures have been implemented.
  • 16. xiv E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G EThis provides the basis for identifying (a) the water availability for rainfed and irrigated crops,effect of climate change with adaptation (the dif- and other factors to estimate the impact of cli-ference between the baseline scenario and the mate change on crop yields.scenario of climate change with adaptation), and(b) the impact of adaptation itself (the difference Changes in yields without adaptation vary widelybetween the scenarios of climate change without across crops, agroecological zones, and climateand with adaptation). scenarios. As for other EACC studies, the results reported do not take account of CO2 fertiliza-Step 6A: As for Step 4A, incorporate the results tion, because of the uncertainties about the extentfrom Step 6 into the macroeconomic model of this effect; taking this into effect might haveto assess the benefits of adaptation in terms of reduced the severity of some predicted productiv-aggregate and sectoral economic activity and ity declines. For rice, the Dry scenario would leadhousehold consumption. to reductions in yields ranging from 12 percent in the Mekong River Delta to 24 percent in the RedMany of the adaptation options are “no regrets” River Delta. The primary factors influencing riceoptions that increase yields or production even yields are the increase in average temperatureswithout climate change. This is not invariably and seasonal reductions in runoff.the case, for example there would be no need toupgrade ports if sea level and storm surges do There would be more extensive inundation ofnot change. However, for agriculture and other crop land in the rainy season and increased salinesectors it is difficult to identify measures that are intrusion in the dry season as a consequence ofonly justified under a specific set of climate con- the combination of sea level rise and higher riverditions. For these sectors, adaptation is often a flooding. For the Mekong River Delta, it is esti-matter of doing things that would in any event mated that about 590,000 ha of rice area couldhave been economic under a wide range of cli- be lost due to inundation and saline intrusion,mate conditions. which accounts for about 13 percent of today’s rice production in the region.Agriculture Table ES-2 shows the potential impact of climate change without adaptation under alternative cli-The impact of the alternative climate scenarios mate scenarios on production of six major cropson crop production has been examined using pro- or crop categories relative to a 2050 baseline ofjections of runoff, which affects the availability of no climate change. Paddy rice production mayirrigation water, plus agronomic models that take fall by 5.8 (MoNRE) to 9.1 (Dry) million tonsaccount of temperature and rainfall patterns, (mmt) per year. Table ES-2 Change in Crop Production in 2050 due to Climate Change with No Adaptation (million metric tons)Climate Paddy ricescenario Maize Cassava Sugar cane Coffee VegetablesImpact Yields Sea level Total Yields Yields Yields Yields YieldsDry -6.7 -2.4 -9.1 -1.1 -1.9 -3.7 -0.4 -1.7Wet -5.8 -2.5 -8.4 -1.0 -2.6 -2.9 -0.4 -3.1MoNRE -3.4 -2.4 -5.8 -0.3 -0.6 -1.4 -0.1 -0.9
  • 17. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY xvThese figures are not forecasts of what will actually hap- Macroeconomic impacts. As in the other EACCpen. Farming involves a continuous process of country studies, a computable general equilibriumadaptation to weather, technology, economic and (CGE) model has been used to examine the macro-other influences, so adaptation will certainly take economic impacts of climate change. In Vietnam,place. Rather, these projections provide a starting the CGE model was only used to take into accountpoint—based on the best available information the effects of climate change and adaptation forand subject to substantial uncertainty—for (a) the agricultural sector, so it does not attempt tounderstanding the potential importance of cli- take account of all of the macroeconomic impactsmate change for crop production holding other of climate change. The CGE model establishesfactors constant, and (b) assessing the type and a baseline composition of economic activity upscale of adaptation that may be required, which to 2050, given data and assumptions about inter-will require a combination of autonomous adap- industry linkages for 158 sectors, including regionaltation (by farmers) and planned adaptation (as a crop production for the six crops examined above,consequence of government policy). consumption for ten rural/urban household groups, population, investment, and productivityFurther, this assessment of the potential impact growth. This is used to simulate the effect of exoge-of climate change on crop production needs to be nous “shocks;” that is, deviations from the baselineinterpreted in a larger context. Changes in diets scenario, such as a reduction in crop productionand consumer preferences with falling demand due to climate change. The model is run assumingfor rice, market liberalization, trade (which will that the aggregate level of investment and savingsexpose Vietnam to lower-cost competition), and remains constant in real terms, so that aggregateconversion opportunities to aquaculture and consumption moves with gross domestic productmore salt-tolerant varieties will all have important (GDP). The model takes account of the effects ofeffects on the demand for and the supply of agri- exogenous shocks on industry and services, interna-cultural products over the coming decades. The tional trade, commodity prices and the distributionimpacts of climate change have to be assessed of consumption. A broad picture of its results mayagainst a background of wider economic and be obtained by examining changes in total GDP,social development. aggregate consumption, and other variables under Table ES-3 Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change Without/with Adaptation in 2050(Percentage deviations from baseline with no climate change) No adaptation (%) With adaptation (%) Adaptation benefits (%) Dry Wet MoNRE Dry Wet MoNRE Dry Wet MoNRE (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) GDP -2.4 -2.3 -0.7 -1.1 -0.7 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.3 Aggregate consumption -2.5 -2.5 -0.7 -1.4 -0.8 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.3 Agricultural value-added -13.9 -13.5 -5.8 -3.8 -3.4 5.4 10.0 10.1 11.2 REGIONAL GDP North-Central Coast -6.6 -6.1 -2.6 0.5 -0.3 4.8 7.1 5.8 7.4 South-East 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.9 RURAL HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION Bottom quintile -6.5 -6.3 -2.6 -1.9 -1.4 2.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 Top quintile -1.6 -1.7 -0.4 -1.5 -1.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0
  • 18. xvi E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Ethe alternative climate scenarios in 2050 relative to baseline, and (b) extending the area of irrigateda baseline with no climate change. land by about 688,000 ha, roughly half for rice and the remainder mainly for maize and coffee.Total GDP and aggregate consumption in 2050 The total cost of these measures is estimated atwith no adaptation will be 2.4–2.3 percent lower about $160 million per year at 2005 prices with-than the baseline under the Dry/Wet scenarios out discounting over the period 2010–50.but only 0.7 percent lower under the MoNRE sce-nario, shown in columns (1) through (3) of Table Deviations in GDP and other macroeconomicES-3. The reason for the reduction in GDP is the variables from the baseline with adaptation fordecline in agricultural value-added of 13.9/13.5 the alternative climate scenarios are shown inpercent under the Dry/Wet scenarios, which is columns (4) through (6) of Table ES-3, whilemarginally offset by small increases in value-added columns (7) through (9) give the net benefits ofin industry and services. There are significant dif- adaptation after allowing for the costs that areferences between the impact of climate change on incurred. The adaptation measures substantiallydifferent regions, as illustrated by the estimates for reduce the impact of climate change underchanges in regional GDP for the North- Central all scenarios. The expenditures on adaptationCoast and South-East regions. The gain in the for agriculture are clearly justified as the ratioSouth-East is a consequence of the concentration of their benefits to the costs that are incurredof industry and services in the region. is much greater than 1. The combination of the MoNRE scenario with adaptation leads toThe impact on household incomes is skewed, an increase in aggregate consumption, indicat-with greater losses for those in the bottom rural ing that some, perhaps many, of the adaptationquintile (the poorest 20 percent of rural house- measures are “no regrets” options that would beholds arranged by expenditure per person) than justified even without climate change.for the top quintile. Poor rural and urban house-holds are most vulnerable because they rely An important aspect of adaptation is that it off-more heavily on the agricultural sector for their sets most of the disproportionate impact of cli-incomes and they spend a higher proportion of mate change on poorer households. The bottomtheir income on food, which becomes relatively quintile of rural households benefit most frommore expensive. adaptation and the gap between the changes in household consumption for the bottom andAdaptation in agriculture. The study exam- top quintiles is almost eliminated. Adaptationined a range of adaptation options including partly or wholly offsets both the reduction inautonomous adaptations undertaken by farmers agricultural incomes and the increase in foodas well as planned adaptation underpinned by prices that accompany climate change withoutgovernment spending in areas that will enhance adaptation.the capacity of farmers to adapt. The autono-mous adaptations include changes in sowing Investments in flood and coastal protection weredates, switching to drought-tolerant crops, adop- not incorporated in the macroeconomic analysis.tion of salinity-tolerant varieties of rice, adoption Separate studies have indicated that the costs ofof new varieties for other crops, and switching to building/upgrading sea dikes and flood defensesrice-fish rotations. The planned adaptations focus to protect urban infrastructure and the most valu-on (a) increased spending on research, develop- able agricultural land would be about 1 percentment, and extension with the goal of raising aver- of total investment—about $540 million per yearage crop yields by 13.5 percent relative to the at 2005 prices.
  • 19. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY xviiOther Sectors that is suitable for humid semi-deciduous forest, which would be replaced by other forest types. Mangrove forests will be affected by sea level riseAquaculture. Aquaculture, especially in the unless they are able to migrate inland. The areaMekong River Delta, is an important source of of land under plantation forests with short rota-employment and rural income. It is estimated tions has increased rapidly over the past 20 years.that some 2.8 million people are employed in A forestry growth model suggests that climatethe sector, while export revenue is expected to be change will increase the variability of plantationabout $2.8 billion in 2010. Higher temperatures, yields across the country without having a majoran increased frequency of storms, sea level rise, impact on the average yield. Thus, an importantand other effects of climate change are likely to adaptation need will be to ensure the best matchaffect fish physiology and ecology as well as the between soil, climate, and management practicesoperation of aquaculture. Some fish species, such to obtain the highest yields from plantations.as catfish, may grow more rapidly with highertemperatures but be more vulnerable to disease. A range of adaptation options was considered.The main impacts of climate change on aquacul- The key measures identified were (a) changes inture seem likely to be a consequence of increased land use planning to facilitate the migration offlooding and salinity. mangroves; (b) adoption of plantation species and methods of silviculture that are more resilient toParts of the aquaculture sector, particularly cat- droughts; (c) improvements in pest management,fish farming, currently face uncertain economic including genetic selection and integrated pestprospects, particularly as a result of rising prices control strategies; and (d) use of herbicides or bio-for feedstuffs and the costs of maintaining water logical controls to limit the effect of exotic weedquality. Without adaptation, it is likely that climate species on tree growth. The financial costs ofchange will reduce profit margins, so that only adaptation are likely to be modest, but the institu-the most efficient aquaculturists who adopt best tional issues may be more difficult to deal with.practices will survive. Successful adaptation willrequire a combination of better feed conversion Coastal ports. Along its 3,200 km coastline,and improvements in marketing together with Vietnam has a total of 116 ports. In addition,investments in upgrading dikes to reduce flood- new terminals are being constructed and planneding and salinity intrusion that will benefit other all along the coastline, particularly in the southsectors as well as aquaculture. Semi-intensive and around Ho Chi Minh City and in the northintensive shrimp producers may incur additional around Hai Phong. Given the nature of its loca-costs of water pumping to maintain water and tion, this infrastructure is at risk from sea-level risesalinity levels. Since the industry is both capital- and storm surges. Impacts include acceleratedintensive and growing rapidly, adaptation is likely depreciation of structures and flooding of portto be autonomous with the costs borne by opera- facilities such as warehouses.tors. The total cost of adaptation is estimated at anaverage of $130 million per year from 2010–50, Adaptation options examined in the study includewhich is equivalent to 2.4 percent of total costs. (a) raising quay walls, (b) improving surface drain- age to reduce flooding, and (c) increased expendi-Forestry. The impact of climate change on for- ture on the maintenance and replacement of portests is likely to be complex and long term. For infrastructure. The cost of adaptation for all portsnatural forests, the analysis suggests that there would be less than $500 million, or about $12 mil-will be a substantial reduction in the area of land lion per year without discounting at 2005 prices.
  • 20. xviii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G ESocial Analysis and switching to salinity-tolerant varieties of rice. The diversity of preferred adaptation responses reflected the impressive variety of Vietnam’s vul-Up to now government policies have focused on nerability zones and confirm the need for a mixsector-wide assessments for the whole country of both autonomous and planned adaptation, aand on “hard” adaptation measures—such as mix of hard and soft options, and adaptation tosea dikes, reinforced infrastructure, and durable be carried out at the national, subnational, andbuildings. Little attention has been paid to “soft” community levels.adaptation measures like increasing institutionalcapacity or the role of collective action and social Lessons andcapital in building resilience. Most adaptationoptions identified at the field sites and during par- Recommendationsticipatory scenario development workshops wereaimed at improving response capacity and disas- Climate change will have a significant impact onter risk reduction—such as forecasting, weather some regions and sectors of Vietnam’s rural econ-monitoring—and managing climate risk. Nota- omy. Still, in macroeconomic terms the impactsbly, adaptation options that reduce poverty and of climate change on agriculture and related sec-increase household resilience or that integrate tors, even with no adaptation, appear to be rela-climate change into development planning were tively modest. In practice, there will be substantialnot emphasized. autonomous adaptation even without active gov- ernment intervention, since farmers will changeOverall, many of the adaptation options observed the crops and crop varieties that they grow andat the field sites and/or proposed in workshops their methods of farming.were highly cost-effective and do not requirelarge expenditures. Moreover, they were largely The major concern is the extent to which cli-in line with the adaptation options considered mate change will hit poor households, partlyfor the climate scenarios in the sector analyses. because of the decline in agricultural incomesThese adaptation measures included shifting and partly because of an increase in food pricesplanting dates, adopting drought-tolerant crops, relative to the general cost of living. The low- est 20 percent of households—either urban or rural—arranged by household expenditure per person will experience larger reductions in real standards of living due to climate change than the top 20 percent of households. Thus, the primary focus of policies to adapt to climate change for the sectors covered under the EACC studies, should be to protect the poor, the vulnerable, and those least able to respond to changing climatic stresses. The goal should be to provide farmers and others with the tools and resources that will enable them to respond to cli- mate change itself and to the new risks that will accompany climate change. The key elements will be:
  • 21. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY xix■■ Increased expenditures on research, devel- change. Policies and systems that can cope effec- opment, and extension for crop production, tively with current weather variability will be aquaculture, and forestry to develop new crop more successful in adapting to future climate varieties that are more tolerant to drought, change than those that cannot. Strengthening the salinity, higher temperatures early in the grow- capacity of the rural sector to cope with current ing season, and so on. Both the public and weather variability and build resilience into such private sectors should be involved in efforts to systems will yield benefits both now and in the increase yields and productivity. future. It is also important to collect, analyze, and report data on how the climate is changing in dif-■■ Investment in expanding irrigation infrastruc- ferent regions of the country so that those who ture, especially in the central regions where have to take account of climate change in plan- the opportunities for irrigation expansion are ning new infrastructure or implementing invest- greatest. In the short term, this should build ment programs should have access to the best upon achieving fuller utilization of existing possible information. irrigation infrastructure and improvements in operations and maintenance. Climate change, including sea level rise, will affect the country’s infrastructure and require expen-■■ Increased spending on the maintenance and ditures on adaptation. The case study of coastal extension of coastal and flood defenses to min- ports indicated the lesson that the costs of adapta- imize the impacts of sea inundations, salinity tion are likely to be modest. The total cost of pro- intrusion, and river flooding, especially in the tecting existing ports that are exposed to flooding Mekong River and Red River Deltas. as a result of a higher sea level, combined with greater storm surges, is estimated as no more thanMany of these expenditures would be justified $500 million over 40 years, or about 1 percenteven without climate change, so adaptation to of planned investment in ports over the periodclimate change is primarily a matter of building 2010–30.upon no-regrets measures. Under the intermediateMoNRE climate scenario, the program of agri- An equally important lesson from the case studycultural adaptation outlined in this study would is that it is essential to plan ahead for climateincrease agricultural incomes relative to the base- change. Ports that are built over the next 10–20line, especially in the Central Highlands region, years should be designed to cope with sea levelsillustrating the general benefits of the strategy. and storms to which they may be exposed 50 or more years from now. It may be cheaper to buildIf this program of adaptation were to be imple- margins of resilience and safety into new infra-mented, the adverse impacts of climate change structure than to upgrade assets during the courseon poorer households would largely be avoided. of their life. The same lesson emerges from theThere would still be a net loss of agricultural analyses for infrastructure and coastal protectionvalue-added and aggregate consumption in the undertaken as part of the EACC global study.Wet and Dry climate scenarios, but the magni- The total cost of adaptation for these sectorstude of the losses would be significantly smaller amounts to about 2 percent of total investmentand the skewed impact on the distribution of for the Global Wet (NCAR) scenario, and aboutincome would be corrected. 1.3 percent of total investment for the Global Dry (CSIRO) scenario, on the assumption that adap-Year-to-year weather variability is much greater tation measures are combined with new invest-than the long-term trends associated with climate ments anticipating climate change up to 2100.
  • 22. xx O NE E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
  • 23. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 1IntroductionAs a long narrow country with an extensive and (b) assessing the costs and benefits of mea-coastline, one of the world’s major river deltas, sures to respond to climate change.3and mountains on its eastern and northeast-ern borders, Vietnam is heavily exposed to the A question of key interest pertains to the identifi-risks of weather variability and climate change. cation of the nature of the adaptation measuresIts vulnerability to weather risks has given the available for key sectors of economic activitiescountry experience in designing and imple- and regions of the country, and the assessment ofmenting measures to mitigate the effects of the possible costs and benefits of these measures.droughts, flooding, storms, and similar events The current absence of such information repre-on agriculture and other sectors of the econ- sents a significant factor limiting the capacity ofomy. Assessing the potential impacts of climate governments at all levels to plan and implementchange—and how best to adapt—represents a the most cost-effective adaptation options.new challenge, for which past experience maybe a guide, but which is accompanied by large The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Changeuncertainties. (EACC) study aims to support countries to understand the risks posed by climate changeThe potential consequences of climate change and to design better strategies to adapt to cli-have received considerable attention in Vietnam mate change. A key objective of the study is(World Bank 2010). The government has pre- to help decision makers at the national level topared the country’s National Target Program to integrate robust adaptation strategies into theirRespond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC), which development plans and budgets in a context ofwas adopted in 2008. The strategic objectives of high uncertainty, competing needs, and limitedthe NTP-RCC focus on assessing the impacts of financial resources. In addition to providing esti-climate change on sectors and regions in specific mates of adaptation costs at the global level,4periods and developing plans to respond to cli-mate change to ensure the sustainable develop- 3 Prime Minister, Decision No. 158/2008/QĐ-TTg on Approval of thement of the country. For this purpose, the tasks to National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, Hanoi, Decem-be implemented over the period 2009–15 include: ber 2, 2008.(a) enhancing the understanding of the impacts 4 At the global level, the EACC study estimates that it will cost between $70 and $100 billion each year to adapt to climateof climate change on socioeconomic activities; change over the period 2010 to 2050.
  • 24. 2 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Ethe EACC study has implemented country-level the “final word” on the economics of adaptationstudies for Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, in Vietnam. In most cases the studies highlightMozambique, Samoa, and Vietnam.5 areas of significant uncertainty pertaining to the projected changes in climate variables, the rela-This report provides a synthesis of the key find- tionship between these changes and their impactsings of the sector studies undertaken in Vietnam on resource productivity, and the vulnerability asin the context of the EACC study. The sectors well as the adaptive capacity of those who will becovered by the study are agriculture, aquacul- affected. The findings presented here should beture, forestry, social, and coastal ports. Further regarded as a starting point to provide guidancedetails can be found in the individual sector for future investigations.reports prepared by teams of national and inter-national experts. Not all vulnerable sectors have Each of the sector studies follows a broadly simi-been studied, and the studies themselves could lar approach with the following steps:not consider all possible impacts or adaptationmeasures. The analyses do not aim to provide Step 1: Establish a baseline scenario consisting of projections of land use, production, value-5 The study was funded by the governments of the United added, population growth, urbanization, and Kingdom, Netherlands, and Switzerland. Further details may other variables without climate change. This be found at www.worldbank.org/eacc. In addition, the synthesis report from Vietnam and the six underlying national sector provides the reference scenario against which reports can be downloaded from the Environment site of the the impacts of climate change without and with World Bank’s web site for Vietnam: www.worldbank.org/vn/ environment. adaptation are measured.
  • 25. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 3Step 2: Consider the relevant climate variables for Step 5: Identify opportunities for (a) autono-the sector and identify changes projected to 2050 mous adaptation undertaken by farmers andor beyond for each of the climate scenarios. For other producers in response to changes in cli-some purposes, this requires detailed information mate and other conditions, and (b) plannedon, say, precipitation by season and/or region. An adaptation, which is likely to be initiated andimportant qualification is that general circulation at least partly funded by the government. Suchmodels (GCMs), used to generate scenarios, are opportunities include the development and/ornot generally designed to produce reliable pro- adoption of different crop varieties or new spe-jections in such detail. The general direction of cies that respond better to the changed climatechange may be well-understood, but there may conditions, plus investments in irrigation andbe wide margins of uncertainty about the pre- other infrastructure.cise projections for specific grid cells in specificmonths. Hence, the necessity of using detailed cli- Step 6: Estimate the production of crops, timber,mate information requires an acceptance of rela- and so on under the new climate conditions aftertively wide margins associated with the projected the adaptation measures have been implementedchanges. Some of the potential differences may be as a basis for calculating the extent to which adap-captured by examining different climate scenarios, tation can offset the impacts of climate changebut large residual uncertainty cannot be removed. without adaptation.Step 3: Identify the impact of changes in climate Step 6A: As for Step 4A, incorporate the resultson resource productivity and land use. This from Step 6 into the macroeconomic modelincludes, for example, the effect of changes in sea- to assess the benefits of adaptation in terms ofsonal temperatures on rice yields or of seasonal aggregate and sectoral economic activity andprecipitation on coffee yields as well as the effect household consumption.of flooding or saline intrusion on the amount ofland that can be used for rice production in the A final remark about the adaptation options.Mekong River Delta. In many cases, these are “no regrets” options that increase yields or production even with-Step 4: Using GIS and other techniques, combine out climate change. This is not invariably thethe information collected in Stages 2 and 3 to case, for example there would be no need toestimate the overall impact of climate change on upgrade ports if sea level and storm surges didland use and production. not change. However, for agriculture and other sectors it is difficult to identify measures that areStep 4A: For agriculture, incorporate the results only justified under a specific set of climate con-from Step 4 into a macroeconomic model to assess ditions. For these sectors, adaptation is often athe consequences of changes in agricultural output matter of doing things that may be economicon agricultural prices, trade, GDP, economic activ- under a wide range of climate conditions, butity in other sectors, and household consumption. either more or better.
  • 26. 4 T WO E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
  • 27. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 5Projections of ClimateChange and Sea Level RiseIn this section, projected changes in climate vari- minimum, maximum, and median (50 percent)ables and sea level are briefly described at the values among the 21 models, for temperatureregional and national levels. A general overview (°C) and precipitation ( percent) changes. Theof historical and projected future climate change results suggest seasonal temperature increasesis provided in World Bank (2010). of 2.4–2.7°C and precipitation increases of 6–7 percent as median estimates.Regional Projections Because climate change predictions incorpo- rate the results of many physical and chemicalTable 1 summarizes the projected changes in models, each containing their own uncertaintiesseasonal air temperature and precipitation in and errors, there is a high level of uncertaintySoutheast Asia, as reported by the Intergov- about the projections under these scenarios.ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, In their assessment of eleven GCMs in the2007). Regional averages of temperature and Asian-Australian monsoon region, Wang et al.precipitation projections were calculated from (2004) found that the models’ ability to simu-a set of 21 global models in the multi-model late observed inter-annual rainfall variationsensemble approach, for 1980–99 and 2080–99 was poorest in the Southeast Asian portion ofunder the A1B SRES. The table shows the the domain. Table 1 Projected Climate Change for Southeast Asia, 2080–99 against 1980–99 Temperature response (°C) Precipitation response (%) Season Min Median Max Min Median Max DJF 1.6 2.5 3.6 -4 6 12 MAM 1.5 2.7 3.9 -4 7 17 JJA 1.5 2.5 3.8 -4 7 17 SON 1.6 2.4 3.6 -2 6 21 Annual 1.5 2.5 3.7 -2 7 15 Source: Adapted from Christensen et al. (2007)
  • 28. 6 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G ELacombe (2009) compares projected temperature by 0.5 to 0.7°C over the period 1958–2007. Theand precipitation changes for the general South- report further notes that winter temperatureseast Asian region from different downscaled have increased faster than summer temperatures,GCMs reported by various studies on regional and that temperatures in northern Vietnam haveprojections of climate change. While the trend increased faster than those in the south. Annualis clear regarding rising air temperatures, there average temperatures observed in Hanoi, Dan-is greater variation in projections of precipitation ang, and Ho Chi Minh City have all been higherchanges among different climate models, differ- over 1991–2000 decade than the 1931–40 decade,ent emission scenarios, and across different parts and still higher in 2007 than over the 1991–2000of the region. Projections on changes in seasonal- decade. These observations are all consistent withity of rainfall patterns generally suggest the ten- measured increases in global average temperature.dency toward wetter rainy seasons and drier dryseasons, but with geographical variation over the Table 2 shows the projected increase in tem-land and sea masses. perature assessed against average temperatures recorded during the period 1980–99. The pro-An increase in the frequency of extreme weather jected increases in average temperature are slightlyevents such as heat waves and storms is also pro- higher in the northern part of the country (2.4–jected throughout Southeast Asia (Walsh 2004). 6.8°C by 2100) than in the south (1.6–2.0°C).Similarly, it has been projected that an increasein sea surface temperature of 1°C will lead to Precipitation. As noted in the official scenarioan increase of 3–5 percent in tropical cyclone (MoNRE 2009), changes in rainfall patterns areintensities (Knutson and Tuleya 2004). How- complex, seasonal, and region-specific. Overever, changes in ocean temperatures only follow the last century, changes in annual average rain-land temperatures with a considerable lag, so any fall were not systematically either upward orincrease in storm intensities up to 2050 is likely to downward: periods with declining rainfalls werebe modest. followed by periods with increasing rainfalls. However, the annual rainfall appears to have decreased slightly over climate zones in the North,National Projections and increased over climate zones in the South. Despite the lack of obvious and definite trendsIn June 2009, MoNRE published Vietnam’s official in historical data, annual rainfall is projected toclimate change scenario (MoNRE 2009). While increase by 4–5 percent in Northern Vietnam byclimate change estimates were developed for three 2060 and by 7–8 percent by 2100. The changes indifferent emissions scenarios low (B1), medium southern Vietnam are rather smaller, 1.5–3 per-(B2), and high (A2 and A1FI), the medium emis- cent by 2100 (Table 3).sion scenario (B2) was retained by MoNRE forthe purpose of impact assessment and adaptation As important as the projected changes in annualplanning. The official scenario includes projected rainfall are, projected changes in rainfall acrosschanges in temperature, rainfall, and sea level seasons are likely to be of greater significance.over the period 2020 to 2100. Projected changes The dry seasons are projected to get drier, within temperature and rainfall are estimated for each the March–May rainfall reductions being higherof Vietnam’s seven climatic zones. in the southern part than in the northern part. The wet seasons are projected to get wetter, withTemperature. According to MoNRE (2009), the the June–August rainfall increases being higherannual average temperature in Vietnam increased in the northern part than in the southern part.
  • 29. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 7 Table 2 Projected Increases in Annual Average Temperatures relative to 1980–99 (MoNRE medium scenario, °C) Climatic zone 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 North-West 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.6 North-East 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.5 North Delta 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.4 North-Central 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.4 2.8 South-Central 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.9 Central Highlands 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 South 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.0 Table 3 Projected Changes in Annual Rainfall relative to 1980–99 (MoNRE medium scenario, %) Climatic zone 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 North-West 1.4 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.4 North-East 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.1 7.3 North Delta 1.6 3.2 5.0 6.6 7.9 North-Central 1.5 3.1 4.9 6.4 7.7 South-Central 0.7 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.2 Central Highlands 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 Table 4 Projected Sea Level Rise in Vietnam (cm) 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Low scenario 11 23 35 50 65 Medium scenario 12 23 37 54 75 High scenario 12 24 44 71 100 South 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5Hence, it is expected that rainfall will be concen- 50 years. These observations are comparable withtrated even more than now in the rainy season the global sea level rise trend (MoNRE 2009).months, leading to an increase in the frequency,intensity, and duration of floods, and to an exac- Sea-level rise is projected to rise at an increasingerbation of drought problems in the dry season. rate over the period 2020–2100 (Table 4), lead- ing to an increase of approximately 30 cm bySea level rise. Observations along the Vietnam- 2050 and up to 75 cm by 2100 under the mediumese coast show that sea level has been rising at scenario. As indicated earlier and as pointed inthe rate of approximately 3 mm per year during MoNRE’s official scenario, it is possible thatthe period of 1993–2008, consistent with the rate IPCC projected changes in sea levels have beenof 3.1 mm/yr reported at the global level over underestimated (Dasgupta et al. 2009).the period 1990–2000 (World Bank 2010). At theHon Dau station, in the past 50 years, sea level The expected changes in climate variables androse approximately by about 20 cm, in the past sea level discuss above form the background for
  • 30. 8 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 5 Increases in Annual Average Temperatures by Climate Scenario and Zone (˚C) Dry (IPSL) Wet (GISS) MoNRE Agroecological zone 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050NW 1.2 2.2 0.9 1.4 0.8 1.3NE 1.2 2.2 0.9 1.4 0.7 1.3RRD 1.2 2.2 0.9 1.4 0.7 1.3NCC 1.1 2.0 0.9 1.4 0.9 1.6SCC 0.9 1.6 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.9CHL 0.8 1.6 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.9SE 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.6 1.0MRD 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.6 1.0Table 6 Increases in Annual Precipitation by Climate Scenario and Zone (%) Dry (IPSL) Wet (GISS) MoNRE Agroecological zone 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050NW -16.5 -12.7 9.8 19.4 1.7 2.8NE -16.5 -11.8 10.5 13.5 1.8 3.0RRD -14.2 -9.2 8.6 10.1 2.1 3.5NCC -11.9 -7.0 7.6 10.0 2.2 3.6SCC -7.8 -9.7 5.2 5.7 1.6 2.8CHL -11.0 -5.6 4.3 6.0 0.1 0.0SE -10.7 -5.0 5.1 6.3 0.7 1.3MRD -10.5 -6.3 5.2 6.3 0.9 1.5
  • 31. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 9estimating the impacts of climate change on eco- emission scenario was included in the analysisnomic sectors of activities as well as the nature, to represent the middle of the distribution ofcosts, and benefits of adaptation measures. GCMs in terms of the climate moisture index. Temperature increases and precipitation changes were estimated in all agroecological zones for allClimate Scenarios three climate change scenarios in the two future periods, 2030 and 2050.To take account of differences in the projec-tions generated by different GCMs, a selection The results are shown in Tables 5 and 6. Theof climate scenarios was based on the ranking Dry scenario is warmer than the Wet scenarioof GCMs with sufficient geographical detail by and both are warmer than the MoNRE scenario.the climate moisture index (CMI) for the IPCC However, the largest differences concern theSRES A2 emission scenarios. There were 14 changes in annual precipitation. For most of theGCMs that met the criteria for consideration. country, the Dry scenario projects a significantThe historical climate for 1971–2000 is roughly decline up to 2030, which is partly reversed inin the middle of the 14 projections, implying the period 2030–50. On the other hand, the Wetthat there is nearly an equal opportunity for the scenario shows a substantial increase in annualclimate to become dryer or wetter by 2050, if precipitation, especially in northern Vietnam,each of the projections had similar probabilities but again the rate of change is greater up to 2030of being true. The driest (IPSL-CM4) and wet- than in the following two decades. In contrast, thetest (GISS-ER) scenarios were used as the Dry MoNRE scenario shows much smaller changes inand Wet scenarios in the analysis. In addition, precipitation, so that it lies in between the DryMoNRE’s climate projection for the medium and Wet scenarios.
  • 32. 10 TH REE E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
  • 33. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 11AgricultureDespite the country’s rapid rate of industrialization Table 7 Possible Impacts of Climatein the last two decades, agriculture remains a major Change on Agricultureeconomic sector in Vietnam. It generates employ- Climate change Possible impactsment and income for a significant part of the Decreased crop yields due to heat stress and increased rate ofpopulation.6 Climate change is expected to affect evapotranspirationthe sector significantly and in a number of differ- Increasing Increased livestock deaths due to temperatureent ways (Table 7). Much attention has focused on heat stress Increased outbreak of insect peststhe potential impact of changes in temperature on and diseasesrice yields, but any assessment of the impact of Increased frequency of drought andand adaptation to climate change on agriculture floods causing damages to crops Changesmust take account of changes in land use due to in rainfall Changes in crop growing seasonsalinization and flooding. Not all of the impacts Increased soil erosion resulting from more intense rainfall and floodswill be negative because higher temperatures and/ Loss of arable landsor changes in rainfall may permit the cultivation of Sea level rise Salinization of irrigation watersome crops in areas where they were previously not Source: Adapted from Agricultural Development Bankviable. Hence, it is necessary to examine the full set (ADB 2009).of adjustments to changes in crop yields, land suit-ability, market incentives and other factors in thecontext of a changing climate. One of the EACC markets. Vietnam is a large exporter of rice, butsector studies (Zhu & Guo 2010) looked at these agricultural markets and its comparative advan-issues for a small number of crops. tages may change in fundamental ways over a time horizon of four decades. Changes that affect theThe agricultural sector cannot be examined in agricultural sector may affect economic growthisolation from the rest of the economy and world and the distribution of incomes for the country as a whole. Equally, the impacts of climate change6 In the ten years from 1995 to 2005, “agriculture, forestry, and on the agricultural sector will be partly shaped by fisheries” saw its relative contribution to the economy fall from developments in the rest of the economy, so that 27.2 percent to 20.5 percent, while the industrial sector’s contri- bution increased from 28.8 percent to 41 percent over the same the assessment must account for the dynamics of period. However, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector economic growth outside agriculture. For these continues to employ 57 percent of the total labor force (General Statistics Office 2009). reasons the analysis of the impacts of climate
  • 34. 12 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 8 Exposure to Hydro-climatic Risks by Agroecological Zone Risk NW NE RRD NCC SCC CHL ES MRD Storms +++ +++ ++++ ++++ ++++ ++ +++ +++ River flooding - - ++++ ++++ +++ +++ +++ +++++ Flash floods +++ +++ - +++ +++ +++ +++ + Droughts +++ +++ + ++ +++ ++ +++ + Salinity intrusion - - + ++ ++ + ++ +++ Sea inundation - - +++ ++ ++ - ++ +++ Note: Very severe (++++), severe (+++), medium (++), light (+), none (-).change on agriculture is linked to a macroeco- likely to alter the balance of land use for crop pro-nomic model of economic development up to duction (including animal feedstuffs) and grazing,2050 to account for interactions between the agri- so the impacts identified here will impinge on live-cultural sector and the rest of the economy. stock production. This limitation reflects the level of analysis that is feasible at present. In future, itThe structure of the analysis is as follows: will be desirable to extend the scope of the analy- sis to take account of interactions between crop■■ Stage 1. Identify the direct impact of climate and livestock production. Similarly, forestry and change on crop yields, land use, and crop pro- aquaculture—both of which compete with crop duction for three different scenarios of climate production for land and other resources—are change (Wet, Dry, and Intermediate). examined separately because of the absence of a good basis for modeling resource allocation in the■■ Stage 2. Incorporate the results from Stage 1 wider rural economy. into the macroeconomic model to assess the direct and indirect impacts of climate change Vietnam is divided into eight agroecological without adaptation. zones: North-West (NW); North-East (NE); Red River Delta (RRD); North-Central Coast (NCC);■■ Stage 3. Examine options for mitigating the South-Central Coast (SCC); Central Highlands impact of climate change on crop production (CHL); South-East (SE); and Mekong River Delta and estimate the costs of the most economic (MRD). Climate, soil, and terrain conditions vary measures and crop production if they are considerably across these zones, while the nature implemented. and severity of hydro-climatic risks differ across zones (Table 8). Hence, the study treats each of■■ Stage 4. Incorporate the results from Stage 3 into the eight agroecological zones plus the three larg- the macroeconomic model to assess the net costs est river basins as separate units. of climate change after allowing for adaptation. Vietnam grows a wide variety of crops and it isOne point to note is that the analysis focuses on not possible to examine them all in detail. Thiscrop production—no attempt is made to analyze study focuses on five main crops—rice, maize,the impacts of climate change on livestock pro- cassava, sugarcane, and coffee—plus vegetables.7duction, since there is not good evidence to assesshow different climate scenarios may affect animal 7 “Vegetables” is a generic category dominated by production ofgrowth rates and dairy yields. Climate change is beans, other pulses, and onions.
  • 35. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 13 Table 9 Harvested Areas and Crop Yields by Agroecological zones, 2007 (Areas in thousand ha, yields in ton/ha) Paddy rice Maize Cassava Sugar cane Coffee Vegetables AEZ Area Yield Area Yield Area Yield Area Yield Area Yield Area YieldNW 157.7 3.6 172.0 3.1 42.9 9.8 12.1 58.1 3.5 1.6 91.1* 11.1NE 552.5 4.6 236.0 3.2 55.4 13.0 13.4 48.5 0 0RRD 1111.6 5.7 84.7 4.2 7.5 12.0 2.3 52.3 0 0 158.6 18.0NCC 683.2 4.7 137.3 3.6 58.9 15.4 63.4 57.0 7.0 1.6 68.5 9.8SCC 375.8 5.1 42.1 4.0 65.3 15.6 49.8 48.7 1.6 1.1 44.0 14.0CHL 205.0 4.2 233.4 4.4 129.9 15.2 33.5 52.5 458.2 2.0 49.0 20.2SE 431.6 4.2 126.1 4.6 130.8 21.2 49.4 60.8 36.1 1.4 59.6 13.0MRD 3683.6 5.1 36.3 5.6 6.3 11.6 66.9 76.3 0 0 164.3 16.6Total 7201.0 5.0 1067.9 3.8 497.0 16.1 290.8 59.8 506.4 2.0 635.1 15.2Note: *Total of North-West and North-East agroecological zones.Source: General Statistics Office (GSO) (2009). Table 10 Percentage Shares of Crop Production by Agroecological Zone, 2007 Agroecological zone Paddy rice Maize Cassava Sugar cane Coffee Vegetables NW 18 16 13 22 0 12 NE 54 16 15 14 0 13 RRD 65 4 1 1 0 29 NCC 36 6 10 41 0 8 SCC 31 3 17 39 0 10 CHL 11 14 26 23 12 13 SE 20 6 31 33 1 9 MRD 70 1 0 19 0 10 Total production (mmt) 36.0 4.1 8.0 17.4 1.0 9.6 Source: GSO (2009).Table 9 shows crop harvested area and yield in most zones, irrigated rice is cultivated in two to2007 by agroecological zone, while Table 10 three crops per year. The continued rise in riceshows the share of production by agroecological production is largely due to improved irrigation,zone (AEZ) for the six crop categories. new rice varieties, new rice technologies, and increased triple cropping in the Mekong RiverRice is by far the most important crop. About Delta (Young et al. 2002).52 percent of paddy rice production is from theMekong River Delta: 82 percent of the summer- Maize is the second most important food crop. Itautumn rice is produced in the Mekong River is the substitute staple in periods of rice shortage,Delta, and another 18 percent in the Red River especially for people in rural areas and mountain-Delta. Other important rice-growing regions are ous regions. Maize is also the primary source ofthe North-East and the North-Central Coast. In feed for Vietnam’s poultry and livestock industry,
  • 36. 14 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Eand is therefore an important source of income agroecological zones (Table 11). The details offor many farmers (Thanh Ha et al. 2004). crop rotations matter because all the climate sce- narios show that changes in rainfall are likely toCassava plays an important socioeconomic role be far from uniform across seasons and zones.as a secondary crop. In the North cassava is animportant source of food and feed at the house- Finally, the uneven distribution of rainfall overhold level, while in the South, it is mainly a source the year (typically 80–85 percent of the totalof cash income. It is predominantly used as a raw rainfall occurs in the wet season) means thatmaterial for processing into a wide range of prod- irrigation systems play an important role inucts, both at the household and small-scale pro- managing water resources for agricultural pro-cessor level, generating employment in the rural duction. Government investment in irrigationsector (Kim 2001). More than half of cassava was has increased the percentage of arable land thatproduced in the Central Highlands and South- is irrigated land from 18 percent in 1961 to 70East zones. percent in 2002 (Fan et al. 2004). Total use of water for irrigation was 76.6 billion m3 in 2000,Northern Vietnam, as well as large parts of the representing 84 percent of total water demand.southeast and Central Highlands areas, are The Vietnamese government expects irrigationplanted to perennial and non-rice crops. The demand to increase to 88.8 billion m3 by 2010,South-East and Central Highland zones have the representing an irrigated area of 12 million ha.largest areas planted to perennial crops such as Today, most of the flat land is under irrigation,rubber, coffee, tea, cashew nut, and black pepper. and a large percentage of crops are producedPerennial crops in the Mekong Delta are mainly from irrigated land. Again, this is relevantfruit trees. More than 90 percent of coffee is pro- because some of the consequences of climateduced in the Central Highlands zone. change—notably changes in the seasonal pat- tern of rainfall, flooding, and sea level rise—willVietnam has complex seasonal crop rotations affect the availability of water for irrigation andand the crop calendar and pattern vary across the performance of irrigation systems. Table 11 Typical Seasonal Crop Rotations by Agroecological Zone Agroecological zone Spring Crop Summer Crop Winter Crop NW Spring rice, maize, soybean, Summer rice, maize, soy- Vegetables sweet potato, vegetables bean, vegetables NE Spring rice, maize, soybean Summer rice and soybean Maize, soybean or sweet potato RRD Spring rice, vegetables Summer rice, vegetables Winter rice, vegeta- bles, upland crops NCC Spring rice, peanut, upland crops Summer rice, soybean, Vegetables other upland crops SCC Spring rice, vegetables, cotton Summer rice, vegetables Vegetables CHL Winter-spring rice, maize, soybean, Summer rice, maize, soy- Winter-spring rice, vegetables, cassava bean, cotton, cassava upland crops SE Spring rice, maize, cotton, Summer rice, maize Autumn-winter rice vegetables, other upland crops MRD Rice, vegetables Rice, vegetables Rice, vegetables
  • 37. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 15 Figure 1 Framework for Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change OBSERVED GCM PROJECTIONS METEOROLOGICAL DATA CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS HYDROLOGICAL MODEL RIVER BASIN MODEL HYDRO-CROP WOFOST HYDRO-CROP MODEL MODEL MODEL IRRIGATED CROP YIELDS RAIN-FED CROP YIELDS HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL-ADJUSTED AREAS PRODUCTIONThe Impact of Climate evaluate the effect of sea level rise on inundationChange on Crop Production and salinity intrusion. Figure 1 illustrates the inte- grated modeling framework, including models and data flow.Methodology. Assessing the impact of climatechange on agriculture requires an integrated Climate scenarios. The scenarios for climateapproach using three types of models: (1) agro- change used in the analysis are the Dry, Wet, andnomic or crop simulation, (2) hydrologic simu- MoNRE scenarios described in section 2. Theselation, and (3) river basin models. For the river represent the full range of GCM projections indeltas, a hydrodynamic model is also required to terms of the climate moisture index and they
  • 38. 16 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Figure 2 Flood Inundation with 30 cm Sea Level Rise in the Mekong Deltaprovide a basis for assessing the extent of variation Hydrodynamic simulations by the Southern Insti-in the impacts of climate change across GCMs. tute of Water Resources Planning (SIWRP) wereWhile Tables 5 and 6 summarize the projections used to estimate the changes in sea inundationby showing changes in average temperature and from 2000 to 2030 and 2050 on the assump-annual precipitation, the agricultural analysis is tion of a sea level rise of 17 cm by 2030 and 30based upon projected changes in monthly mini- cm by 2050, which corresponds to the mediummum, mean, and maximum temperatures and on SLR assumption discussed in section 2. Figure 2monthly precipitation—in each case by agroeco- shows the projected situation for inundation in thelogical zone. Mekong River Delta with a 30 cm sea level rise by
  • 39. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 17 Table 12 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields Agroecological zone / Potential impacts of climate change without adaptation River basin North-West Rice yield declines by 11.1 percent to 28.2 percent; yields of other crops decline by 5.9 percent to 23.5 percent. Generally, the Dry scenario results in more yield reduction than the Wet scenario. MoNRE scenario has the least yield reduction. North-East Rice yield declines by 4.4 percent to 39.6 percent; yields of other crops decline by 2.7 percent to 38.3 percent. The largest yield reduction can be with either the Dry or Wet scenarios, depending on crops. MoNRE scenario has the least yield reduction. Red River Delta Rice yield declines by 7.2 percent to 32.6 percent; yields of other crops decline by 4.1 percent to 32.9 percent. The largest yield reduction can be with either the Dry or Wet scenarios, depending on crops. MoNRE scenario has the least yield reduction. North-Central Coast Rice yield declines by 7.2 percent to 32.6 percent; yields of other crops decline by 4.1 percent to 32.9 percent. The largest yield reduction can be with either the Dry or Wet scenarios, depending on crops. MoNRE scenario has the least yield reduction. South-Central Coast Rice yield declines by 8.4 percent to 27.0 percent; yields of other crops decline by 4.0 percent to 20.9 percent. Generally, the Dry scenario results in more yield reduction than the Wet scenario. MoNRE scenario has the least yield reduction. Central Highlands Rice yield declines by 11.1 percent to 42.0 percent; yields of other crops decline by 7.5 percent to 45.8 percent. The largest yield reduction can be with either the Dry or Wet scenarios, depending on crops. MoNRE scenario has the least yield reduction. South-East Rice yield increases by 4.3 percent in the dry scenario, remains the same in the wet scenario, and declines by 8.8 in the MoNRE scenario. Yields of other crops decline by 3.0 percent to 22.7 percent. The largest yield reduction can be with any of the three scenarios, depending on crops. Mekong River Delta Rice yield declines by 6.3 percent to 12.0 percent; yields of other crops decline by 3.4 percent to 26.5 percent. The largest yield reduction can take place under any of the three scenarios, depending on crops.2050, assuming no additions to current hydraulic example, upstream development in the Mekongstructures. The area inundated to a depth greater River basin—remain unchanged over the period.than 0.5 m will increase from 2,813,000 ha to Changes in such variables would have their own3,089,000 ha—a net increase of 276,000 ha, or effects on yields and production.about 10 percent. Sea level rise will also increasethe area in the Mekong River Delta affected by The impacts of climate change on yields are sum-salinity intrusion. With a SLR of 30 cm, the total marized in Table 12. Yield changes vary widelyarea affected by salinity intrusion with concentra- across crops and agroecological zones undertions greater than 4 g/l increases from 1,303,000 climate change. There is also a crucial issue ofha to 1,723,000 ha, a net increase of 420,000 ha. how to deal with CO2 fertilization. CO2 fertiliza- tion should theoretically tend to increase yields,Impacts on yields and production. Climate but its potential role is both contentious and dif-change and sea level rise will affects both yields ficult to estimate since it depends on which fac-and production. The impacts used in this study tors constrain plant growth. The EACC studyrely upon projections generated by a series of has adopted a consistent strategy of overestimat-models, from climate models to crop-growth ing the impacts of climate change and the costsmodels. Thus, there is a large degree of uncer- of adaptation where such choices have to betainty regarding these estimates. In addition, the made. Hence, in this case the study has focusedimpacts estimated in the analysis are based upon on changes in yields without CO2 fertilization.projected changes in climate variables and sea These are the figures used in the tables and thelevel, so they assume that all other variables—for later analysis.
  • 40. 18 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 13 Impact of Yield Changes on Production by Scenario in 2030 and 2050 (mmt) Year Scenario Rice Maize Cassava Sugar cane Coffee Vegetables Dry -6.4 -1.1 -1.8 -3.1 -0.4 -1.5 2030 Wet -4.0 -0.7 -2.1 -1.8 -0.4 -2.4 MoNRE -2.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1 -0.5 Dry -6.7 -1.1 -1.9 -3.7 -0.4 -1.7 2050 Wet -5.8 -1.0 -2.6 -2.9 -0.4 -3.1 MoNRE -3.4 -0.3 -0.6 -1.4 -0.1 -0.9 Table 14 Total Impact of Climate Change on Production by Scenario in 2050 (mmt) Paddy rice Climate scenario Maize Cassava Sugar cane Coffee Vegetables Impact Yields Sea level Total Yields Yields Yields Yields Yields Dry -6.7 -2.4 -9.1 -1.1 -1.9 -3.7 -0.4 -1.7 Wet -5.8 -2.5 -8.4 -1.0 -2.6 -2.9 -0.4 -3.1 MoNRE -3.4 -2.4 -5.8 -0.3 -0.6 -1.4 -0.1 -0.9For rice, the key factors influencing yields are (a) season in the Red River Delta, which can shortenthe projected reduction in runoff in the Mekong the growing period, leading to lower yields.River Delta, particularly for the Dry scenario, and(b) the impact of higher temperatures (especially Table 13 shows changes in countrywide crop pro-minimum temperatures). It is estimated that yields duction as a result of the effects of climate changewill decline by 0.6 tons per ha per 1°C increase in on yields in 2030 and 2050 relative to the baselineaverage temperature. The worst yield reductions of no climate change for the three scenarios. By(for the Dry scenario) are about 12 percent in the 2050, climate change may reduce rice productionMekong River Delta and about 24 percent in the by 2 to 7 million tons per year. Consistently, theRed River Delta. Across zones, the Central High- MoNRE scenario generates the smallest impactsland zone tends to have the highest decline in crop on crop production.yields under both the Dry and the Wet scenarios.Countrywide, rice yield decreases between 10 per- These estimates do not allow for the impact of seacent and 20 percent in 2050. If CO2 fertilization level rise on harvested areas as a result of morewere included, rice yields fall by less than 12 per- extensive inundation of cropland in the rainycent for the Dry and Wet scenarios and increase season and increased salinity intrusion in the drymarginally for the MoNRE scenario. season. In the Mekong River Delta, the assump- tion of a 30 cm rise by 2050 will result in a lossThe Wet scenario generally results in lower reduc- of 193,000 ha of rice area due to inundation andtions in yields than the Dry scenario, but there are 294,000 ha due to salinity intrusion, both with-exceptions. The Red River Delta has a greater out adaptation. The loss of rice area will leadreduction in yields under the Wet scenario for to a decline in rice production of about 2.6 mil-both the 2030 and 2050 periods. This is because lion tons per year at current yields. This is morethe Wet scenario has higher increases in minimum than 13 percent of today’s rice production in theand average temperatures during the spring rice Mekong River Delta. The loss of rice area to
  • 41. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 19inundation in the lower Dong Nai River basin is uncertainty—for (a) understanding the potentialrelatively small—about 11,000 ha by 2050—and importance of climate change for crop produc-the loss of production is less than 0.1 mmt. Allow- tion, holding other factors constant; and (b) assess-ing for the changes in rice yields discussed above, ing the type and scale of planned adaptation thatthe total loss of paddy rice due to sea level rise may be required.will be 2.–2.5 mmt in 2050. Table 14 shows thecombined effect of changes in yields and sea levelrise on production. The Macroeconomic Consequences ofNote that these figures are not forecasts of whatwill actually happen. All farming involves a Climate Changecontinuous process of adaptation to weather,technology, economic, and other influences, Baseline forecast. The effects of climate changeso adaptation will certainly take place. Rather, on Vietnam’s economy up to the year 2050 werethey provide a starting point—based on the best assessed using a large-scale computable generalavailable information and subject to substantial equilibrium (CGE) model of Vietnam developed Box 1 CGE Modeling Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a class of economic models that use actual economic data to estimate how an economy might react to changes in policy, technology, or other external factors. CGE models are descended from the input-output models. CGE model consists of (a) equations describing model variables; and (b) a database consistent with the model equations. The MONASH-VN model uses data from the General Statistics Office such as the input-output table for 2000, data from Enterprise Surveys 2002–2005, and the 2004 Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey 2004. The MONASH-VN is calibrated to 2005 Vietnamese input-output data. The MONASH-VN database contains 113 sectors of Vietnam’s economy, six of these relating to crop production. The MONASH-VN model distinguishes 79 industries and 37 commodities. For further details on data sources see the full report. The equations of a CGE model, including those of the MONASH-VN, assume that optimizing behav- ior governs decision making by industries and households. Each industry is assumed to minimize unit costs subject to given input prices, while each household is assumed to maximize utility subject to a resource constraint. CGE models are useful to estimate the effect of changes in one part of the economy (such as a change in the agriculture sector) upon the rest of the economy. They are also used to assess the dis- tributional impacts of policies or shocks experienced by any given sector of the economy. They have been used widely to analyze the impacts of trade policy on overall economic growth and develop- ment. In recent years, CGE models have been used to estimate the economic effects of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
  • 42. 20 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Eby the Centre of Policy Studies of Monash Uni- capital comprise approximately 44 and 34 percentversity and known as MONASH-VN (Box 1). of GDP respectively. In the baseline forecast, allThe EACC sector study on the CGE (Adams et sectors in the economy grow, but at different rates.al. 2010) provides the full details of the analysis Agriculture has the lowest growth rate, averagingthat was carried out. MONASH-VN (as all CGE 2.7 percent over the period 2010–50. The averagemodels) provides a framework for simulating how growth rates of industry (mining, manufacturing,Vietnam’s economy may change as a result of utilities, and construction) and services over thechanges (sometimes known as “shocks”) in one same period are 4.7 and 6.4 percent respectively.sector of the economy—in this case, shocks in As a result, agriculture’s share in GDP declinesthe agriculture sector caused by climate change. from 21.3 percent in 2005 to 15.9 percent byThese macroeconomic changes are estimated by 2050. Industry’s share in GDP declines from 41assessing how the economy may evolve over time percent in 2005 to 37.5 percent in 2050. Thewith the sectoral shock when compared to how it share of services in GDP rises from 37.7 percentmay evolve without the sectoral shock, referred to as in 2005 to 46.6 percent by 2050.the baseline forecast. Macroeconomic impacts of agriculture shock.The principal features of the baseline forecast The changes in crop production discussed aboveused in this study are shown in Table 15. At the have been introduced into the macroeconomicmacro level, the projected rate of growth of GDP model as “climate shocks” to the baseline in orderis high, albeit declining, over the forecast period. to simulate the macroeconomic impact of theThe GDP growth rate averages 4.8 percent over changes caused by climate change without adap-the period 2010–50. Employment grows at a tation. Table 16 shows the differences between theslower pace, at an annual average rate of 0.8 per- baseline results and the results with the climatecent. The capital stock grows at an annual aver- shocks for real GDP and real aggregate consump-age rate of about 5 percent. Returns to labor and tion in the years 2030 and 2050. Table 15 Population, GDP, and Employment Projections, 2005–50 Annual growth rates (%) Populationa GDPb Year million $ bn Population GDP Employmentc 2005 85.0 44.8 1.6 8.4 2.3 2010 90.9 60.9 1.3 6.3 1.9 2015 96.5 85.4 1.2 7.0 1.8 2020 101.7 110.6 1.1 5.3 1.2 2025 106.4 137.0 0.9 4.4 0.9 2030 110.4 170.1 0.8 4.4 0.8 2035 113.9 212.2 0.6 4.5 0.6 2040 116.7 265.6 0.5 4.6 0.5 2045 118.7 325.0 0.4 4.1 0.4 2050 120.0 397.3 0.2 4.1 0.2 Notes: (a) ILO (2008) for 2005–20, and predictions produced by the global EACC study team for the remaining periods; (b) actual data from World Development Indicators for 2005–08, forecast from World Economic Outlook (IMF 2009a, 2009b) for 2009–15, and forecasts produced by the global EACC study team for the remaining periods; and (c) authors’ calculation from population, ratio of economically active population to total population, and the unemployment rate.
  • 43. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 21 Table 16 Changes in Baseline GDP and Aggregate Consumption due to Climate Change (Percentage changes from the baseline) Dry Wet MoNRE Climate scenario 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 Real GDP without adaptation -3.1 -2.4 -2.2 -2.3 -1.0 -0.7 Real consumption without adaptation -3.8 -2.5 -2.7 -2.5 -1.3 -0.7 Table 17 Changes in Value-added by Sector due to Climate Change (Percentage changes from the baseline) Dry Wet MoNRE Climate scenario Sector 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 Agriculture -11.5 -13.9 -9.0 -13.5 -5.0 -5.8 Industry 0.2 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.7 Services -0.8 0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.3Real GDP and aggregate consumption are all climate scenarios. The logic is as follows: agri-expected to be reduced by the climate shocks cultural output falls, which leads to a lower levelby approximately 1 to 4 percent in 2030 and by of agricultural exports and a depreciation in thesomewhat less in 2050. Reflecting the pattern of real exchange rate to offset the impact on the bal-changes in crop production under different sce- ance of payments. Manufacturing activities thatnarios, the reductions in GDP and consumption are exposed to international trade—either export-are greatest for the Dry scenario and smallest for ing to world markets or competing with imports—the MoNRE scenario. There is a greater degree of benefit from the exchange depreciation.agreement between the impact of climate changefor the Dry and Wet scenarios in 2050 than in In addition to estimating the impact of climate2030, as differences tend to even out over time. change on aggregate consumption, the macro-For the Dry and MoNRE scenarios, the relative economic model provides estimates of the dis-impact of climate change declines over time. tribution of the change across income groups, which are defined by residence (rural or urban)The macroeconomic impacts are shown at the sec- and by expenditure quintile given their residence.tor level in Table 17 using three broad sectors: agri- The lowest rural quintile (RQ1) covers the 20culture, industry, and services. Agriculture is the percent of rural households with the lowest levelssector most affected. As crop yields and harvested of household expenditure per person, while theareas decline relative to the baseline, value-added highest rural quintile (RQ5) covers the 20 per-in the sector falls under all climate scenarios. The cent of rural households with the highest levelsimpact is largest for the Dry scenario and small- of household expenditure per person. Thus, forest for the MoNRE scenario. The industry and either urban or rural, the quintiles run from theservices sectors are only marginally affected. Pros- poorest to the richest households as reflected bypects for the services sector are largely determined their levels of household expenditure.by outcomes for aggregate real consumption,since this sector sells a large share of its output to Table 18 shows that the impact of climate changethis final demand category. The industry sector with no adaptation would be to reduce con-experiences a small increase in value-added under sumption for all household groups relative to the
  • 44. 22 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 18 Changes in Household Consumption by Income Group due to Climate Change (Percentage deviations from the no climate change baseline, unless otherwise stated) Dry Wet MoNRE 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 Urban households Quintile 1 (UQ1) -5.4 -4.5 -4.0 -4.4 -1.9 -1.5 Quintile 2 (UQ2) -4.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -1.4 -0.9 Quintile 3 (UQ3) -3.7 -2.3 -2.6 -2.4 -1.2 -0.6 Quintile 4 (UQ4) -3.3 -1.7 -2.3 -1.7 -1.0 -0.3 Quintile 5 (UQ5) -2.6 -0.6 -1.8 -0.8 -0.7 0.0 Rural households Quintile 1 (RQ1) -6.9 -6.5 -5.2 -6.3 -2.8 -2.6 Quintile 2 (RQ2) -5.8 -5.2 -4.3 -5.0 -2.3 -1.9 Quintile 3 (RQ3) -5.0 -4.2 -3.7 -4.0 -1.9 -1.5 Quintile 4 (RQ4) -4.0 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -1.4 -0.9 Quintile 5 (RQ5) -3.1 -1.6 -2.2 -1.7 -1.1 -0.4baseline. What is worse is that the burden of the should be seen in context. Under the baseline sce-reduction in consumption falls more heavily on nario of no climate change, the index of real aver-rural households and on the poorest household age consumption per person will increase fromgroups within each location. The differences are 100 in 2005 to about 610 in 2050. Even under thegreatest for the Dry scenario in 2050, but the pat- worst of the climate scenarios with no adaptation,tern is consistent both over time and across cli- the increase for income group RQ1 will be frommate scenarios. It implies an increase in overall 100 in 2005 to about 570 in 2050. The impactinequality of household consumption. of climate change will be to reduce the average real growth in consumption from 4.1 percent perThere are two reasons why poorer households, year to 3.95 percent per year. It would be betterespecially in rural areas, are harder hit by the if this loss can be reduced or eliminated throughimpacts of climate change. adaptation, but the big picture is that the impacts of climate change are small relative to the gains■■ These households derive large shares of their provided by rapid economic growth. income directly or indirectly from agriculture, so the reduction in agricultural value-added falls more heavily on them. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector■■ They spend comparatively high proportions of their income on crop-related food items, so they suffer disproportionately from the increases in Adaptation to climate change in the agricultural crop prices that follow the reduction in crop sector can and will take a number of forms. At the yields and production. lowest level, farmers will respond to changes in crop yields, land availability, and market incentives byNonetheless, the adverse impacts of climate change altering cropping patterns, adopting different cropon the level and distribution of consumption varieties where these are available, using different
  • 45. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 23combinations of inputs, and perhaps by pursuing Change of sowing date for winter-spring rice in theopportunities for non-agricultural employment. Red River Delta. According to the survey con-All of these form part of what is referred to as ducted by IAE, in the Red River Delta farmersautonomous adaptation. The role of public policy is have delayed winter-spring rice planting to avoidquite limited in this sphere, other than to minimize cold weather in winter since improved varieties ofany barriers to changes in farming practice. quick maturing rice were made available. During 1994–2004, late winter-spring rice area increasedThe government’s role will focus on planned adap- from 10–20 percent before 2000 to 80–90 per-tation, which covers policies and expenditures (not cent after 2004. On average, the yield for winter-always from the state budget) designed to promote spring rice increased by 0.47 ton per hectare byadaptation both directly and indirectly. Direct moving from early- and middle-winter-spring riceadaptation covers measures that are designed to to late winter-spring rice.offset the direct impacts of climate change on,for example, crop yields or land availability. This Change of crops—switching to drought-tolerant crops inincludes spending on research and development the Central Coast region. According to the surveyto produce new crop varieties, the construction of IAE, due to rainfall decreasing in the Centraland extension of irrigation schemes, and the con- Coastal region, rice cultivated area declined fromstruction of dikes to protect land from inundation 450,000 hectares in 1995 to less than 350,000or saline intrusion. Indirect adaptation covers hectares in 2008. In contrast, maize and cassavapolicies that are designed to offset the effects of areas increased by two times. These drought-tol-climate change by promoting economic develop- erant crops—such as cassava, maize, and ground-ment that can generate incomes in place of agri- nuts—help farmers avoid risks of rice crop failurecultural incomes that may be lost. This includes due to declining rainfall.spending on improvements in transport andother infrastructure, promoting the development Reinvigorating local varieties in the Red River Delta. Thisof non-agricultural businesses in rural areas, and strategy has been adopted in areas of Hai Phongsome combination of education and training to Province, where flooding and salinity affect agri-upgrade the skills of workers transferring from cultural land. Constructing or rehabilitating theagriculture to other sectors. drainage system is not economically viable and modern varieties do not adapt to the current con-This study has examined options for autono- ditions. Local varieties with high tolerance formous adaptation and direct planned adapta- salinity and flooding have been implemented andtion. There are a variety of options for indirect selected by local farmers through the years.planned adaptation but these need to be consid-ered in the larger context of strategies to pro- Introducing hybrid salinity-tolerant varieties of ricemote economic development. in coastal provinces. This practice has been observed in the coastal provinces. According to IAE, thisAutonomous adaptation by farmers. As part practice started in the northern provinces butof this study, the Institute for Agriculture and soon spread to coastal provinces in the centralEnvironment (IAE) conducted surveys on cur- and southern regions.rent climate stresses in different provinces andthe ways in which farmers have responded to Shifting the water inlet/ finding new water sources. Thisthese stresses. The surveys revealed that farmers practice is implemented in coastal areas whereare already adapting to changes in climate condi- seawater intrusion increases the salinity concen-tions, relying upon various coping strategies. tration in river water used for irrigation. Farmers
  • 46. 24 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Emove the water inlet upward along the river in Expansion of irrigated areas. Irrigation expansion hasorder to gain access to freshwater for irrigation. played a key role in the rapid agricultural produc- tion growth in Vietnam. Irrigation helps copeIntroducing a rice-fish rotation. This rotation is increas- with current weather variability and can assistingly implemented in the Mekong River Delta to adaptation to future climate change.take advantage of the flood season. In some cases,farmers diversify away from rice and construct The first priority should be to improve the utiliza-ponds to engage in aquaculture farming. tion of existing irrigation infrastructure, which is sometimes little better than 60–70 percent, and toThese examples illustrate the simple and well- implement effective mechanisms to fund regularestablished point that farmers can and will spending on operations and maintenance. This isrespond to changes in climate and environmen- a “no regrets” measure that will pay off with notal conditions when suitable opportunities and climate change, but will enhance the capacity ofincentives exist. farmers to adapt to climate change.Planned adaptation. The study examined With respect to additional investments in irri-two main options for planned adaptation: (a) gation, the baseline projection, which takesan increase in public spending on agricultural account of investments planned up to 2020,research, development, and extension activities; assumes no further expansion in irrigated areaand (b) irrigation expansion. Other options for after 2020. The analysis of adaptation via anplanned adaptation include the construction of expansion of the area of irrigated land is baseddikes and sluice gates to cope with sea level rise upon general land and water constraints byin the Mekong Delta. Unfortunately, it is not pos- agroecological zone.sible to estimate the costs and potential benefitsof such measures in the absence of detailed infor- ■■ In the Red River Delta, there are limitedmation and hydrodynamic modeling. Hence, the opportunities for irrigation that have notcosts of adaptation are likely to be overestimated already been developed. Land available forif other options prove to be cost-effective under reclamation usually suffers from poor drainageappropriate conditions. and may require pumping.Public spending on agricultural research and extension. ■■ In the Mekong River Delta, the expansion ofRapid agricultural growth has been driven by the irrigated area is constrained by prolonged andadoption of more productive crop varieties and extensive flooding in the southern parts offarming practices. Rice yields grew at an average the delta and the prevalence of acid sulphateof 2.3 percent per year between 1990 and 2007 soils. Most of the formerly deep-water rice(Yu et al. 2009). Agricultural research and exten- areas have been converted to double croppingsion has often been a cost-effective investment in of short-duration and high-yielding varieties.promoting agricultural productivity. Improved The opportunities for further expanding irri-yields from existing irrigated lands resulting from gated rice production are in the tidal salineincreased investment in agricultural research areas by preventing salinity intrusion. How-focused on adaptation can reduce the impact of ever, sea level rise makes irrigation expan-climate change. In modeling adaptation, it has sion in these areas more difficult and costly.been assumed that yields will be 13.5 percent Generally, irrigation in the delta has reachedhigher than the baseline in 2050 as a consequence its potential (Kirby and Mainuddin 2009). Inof this spending. addition, the relatively high profitability of
  • 47. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 25 Table 19 Expansion in Crop Irrigation by 2050 (in 000 ha) AEZ Rice Maize Cassava Sugarcane Coffee Vegetables NW 6.4 30.1 0 1.2 0.7 1.5 NE 15.5 41.3 0 1.3 0.0 1.5 RRD 90.9 14.8 0 0.2 0.0 5.3 NCC 119.6 24.0 0 6.3 1.4 2.3 SCC 65.8 7.4 0 5.0 0.3 1.5 CHL 35.9 40.8 0 3.4 91.6 1.6 SE 21.3 22.1 0 4.9 7.2 2.0 MRD 0.0 0.9 0 6.7 0.0 5.5 Total 355.3 181.4 0.0 29.1 101.3 21.2 Table 20 Changes in Real GDP and Aggregate Consumption Without/ with Adaptation (Percentage deviations from the baseline) Dry Wet MoNRE 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 REAL GDP No adaptation -3.1 -2.4 -2.2 -2.3 -1.0 -0.7 With adaptation -0.9 -1.1 -1.9 -0.7 +0.4 +0.7 Adaptation gain +2.3 +1.3 +0.3 +1.6 +1.4 +1.4 REAL CONSUMPTION No adaptation -3.8 -2.5 -2.7 -2.5 -1.3 -0.7 With adaptation -1.1 -1.4 -2.3 -0.8 +0.5 +0.6 Adaptation gain +2.8 +1.1 +0.4 +1.7 +1.8 +1.3 rice-aquaculture systems that typify flood- by about 45 percent to achieve a 13.5 percent prone environments also reduces the potential increase in crop yields by 2050, equivalent to a for irrigation expansion in the Mekong River total cost of $1.5 billion at 2009 prices.8 Simi- Delta (Young et al. 2002). larly, the total cost of additional investment in irrigation expansion to meet the assumptions■■ Central Vietnam has the largest potential for in Table 19 is estimated as $4.8 billion at 2009 expansion in irrigated area.. prices. Hence, the total cost of implementing these two adaptation options is estimated to beThe study’s assumptions for potential expansion $6.3 billion at 2009 prices.of irrigated areas by 2050 are shown in Table19, with a total increase in irrigated area of688,000 ha.For the period 2010–49, average annual spend- 8 This estimate is based upon actual spending up to 2009 oning on agricultural research, development, research and development and extension for food crops, indus- trial crops and fruit and irrigation plus 50 percent of spending onand extension activities is assumed to increase training, communication, and capacity building.
  • 48. 26 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G EMacroeconomic Effects climate change.9 Adaptation greatly reduces the impact of climate change in the region, thoughof Adaptation the projected reduction in regional value-added remains significant in the Wet scenario, largelyThe macroeconomic effects have been assessed because of flooding. Measures to reduce vulner-by modifying the MONASH-VN model to incor- ability to flooding, not covered in this sector studyporate the costs and benefits of adaptation. Table but examined in other EACC work, would miti-20 shows that the reduction in real GDP and gate the impact of the Wet scenario on GDP inaggregate consumption under the three climate the Central Highlands region. The South-Eastscenarios with adaptation is much less severe than region gains from climate change, because cropfor climate change without adaptation. In fact, production contributes a relatively small share tothe results for the MoNRE scenario demonstrate the region’s GDP while the region gains from thethat the measures identified encompass no regrets expansion in the industry and services sectors.investments that would be justified even if therewere no climate change, because the benefits Finally, Table 23 shows that adaptation greatlygo beyond merely offsetting the loss of income reduces the impact of climate change on inequal-caused by climate change. Table 21 shows that ity. With adaptation the lowest quintiles (UQ1the present value of the benefits of adaptation and RQ1) suffer a slightly greater reduction in(measured by the increase in aggregate consump- household consumption than the highest quin-tion) exceed the costs by a large margin for each tiles for the Dry and Wet climate scenarios, butof the climate scenarios. The net present value the differences are very small by comparison withof adaptation varies from $13 billion for the Wet the impact of climate change without adaptation.scenario to $32 billion for the Dry scenario. Relative to the without-adaptation scenarios, agri- cultural incomes rise and crop prices fall, benefit-Table 22 compares the without and with adapta- ing poor rural and urban households. The resultstion results for sector value-added and regional for the MoNRE scenario suggest that the adapta-GDP so as to illustrate where the benefits of adap- tion measures are strongly pro-poor, both withouttation are strongest. As would be expected, adapta- climate change and under moderate climate. Thistion has the strongest effect on value-added in the reinforces the point that the adaptation optionsagricultural sector, with increases of 10–11 percent. are no regrets measures that would be justifiedThe consequence is that the shift from agriculture even without concerns about the impact of cli-to industry is significantly reduced under the with- mate change.adaptation scenarios. Total value-added in indus-try and services with adaptation is only marginally 9 This result is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. It is baseddifferent from the baseline projections for 2050. upon the projection that changes in temperature and moisture conditions will greatly reduce coffee yields with no adaptation. There is evidence that the areas of land suitable for growing Ara-At the regional level, the Central Highlands bica coffee in East Africa and Central America will be strongly affected by climate change, but the potential impact on Robustaregion is projected as being most affected by coffee is less documented. In practice, climate change may rein-climate change. This is because coffee produc- force existing economic factors that are encouraging the gradual replacement of coffee by other tree crops and the generaltion, which is especially important in the region, diversification of agriculture in the region with the consequence that the actual impact of climate change will be much less thanexperiences the largest reduction in yields due to the estimates generated by the model.
  • 49. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 27 Table 21 Present Values of Changes in Aggregate Consumption ($ billion @ 5%) Climate scenario Changes in consumption relative to baseline Dry Wet MoNRE No adaptation -47.9 -37.8 -16.3 With adaptation -15.6 -24.7 7.8 Net benefit of adaptation 32.3 13.1 24.2 Table 22 Adaptation Results by Sector and Region, 2050 (Percentage deviations from the baseline) No adaptation With adaptation Adaptation benefits Dry Wet MoNRE Dry Wet MoNRE Dry Wet MoNRE SECTOR VALUE-ADDED Agriculture -13.9 -13.5 -5.8 -3.8 -3.4 5.4 10.0 10.1 11.2 Industry 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.0 0. -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 -1.0 Services 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 REGIONAL GDP Red River Delta -2.2 -2.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.2 1.3 1.9 1.7 North East -6.5 -6.6 -4.7 0.0 -4.3 2.2 6.5 2.2 6.9 North West -6.3 -5.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.0 3.0 4.9 4.5 4.4 North Central Coast -6.6 -6.1 -2.6 0.5 -0.3 4.8 7.1 5. 7.4 South Central Coast -3.4 -2.5 0.5 0.2 0.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.2 Central Highland -24.6 -24.7 -18.8 -2.5 -16.3 8.5 22.2 8.4 27.2 South East 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 -1.1 0.3 -0.9 Mekong River Delta -3.5 -1.8 1.1 -3.5 -1.1 -1.1 0.0 0.7 -2.1 Table 23 Changes in Household Consumption by Income Group Without/with Adaptation (Percentage deviations from the no climate change baseline, unless otherwise stated) No adaptation With adaptation Adaptation benefits Dry Wet MoNRE Dry Wet MoNRE Dry Wet MoNRE URBAN HOUSEHOLDS Quintile 1 (UQ1) -4.5 -4.4 -1.5 -1.5 -0.6 1.9 3.0 3.8 3.4 Quintile 2 (UQ2) -3.0 -3.0 -0.9 -1.1 -0.3 1.3 1.9 2.7 2.2 Quintile 3 (UQ3) -2.3 -2.4 -0.6 -1.2 -0.3 0.9 1.2 2.0 1.5 Quintile 4 (UQ4) -1.7 -1.7 -0.3 -1.2 -0.3 0.4 0.4 1.4 0.7 Quintile 5 (UQ5) -0.6 -0.8 0.0 -1.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 0.5 -0.2 RURAL HOUSEHOLDS Quintile 1 (RQ1) -6.5 -6.3 -2.6 -1.9 -1.4 2.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 Quintile 2 (RQ2) -5.2 -5.0 -1.9 -1.6 -1.1 1.9 3.6 3.9 3.8 Quintile 3 (RQ3) -4.2 -4.0 -1.5 -1.5 -1.0 1.4 2.7 3.1 2.9 Quintile 4 (RQ4) -2.9 -2.9 -0.9 -1.4 -0.8 0.8 1.6 2.1 1.8 Quintile 5 (RQ5) -1.6 -1.7 -0.4 -1.5 -1.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4
  • 50. 28 FO UR E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
  • 51. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 29AquacultureThe Growth of Aquaculture 33 trillion VNĐ, accounting for 6.6 percent of thein Vietnam national GDP, up from 2.2 percent a decade ago. Over the same period, capture fisheries’ share of GDP fell from 5.0 percent to 3.6 percent (TrongGiven Vietnam’s long coastline, capture fisheries 2008). The rapid growth of the sector has beenhave always been important as a source of food a major source of agricultural diversification overand incomes. With slower growth of capture fisher- the past decade. It is a direct result of adaptingies, aquaculture has overtaken capture fisheries in operating practices together with a focus on theboth the quantity and value of production (Figure production of exportable species at increased lev-3). In 2008, aquaculture production was valued at els of intensification. The EACC sector study on Figure 3 Value of Production from Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture (VNĐ billion at constant 1994 prices) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 CULTURE 20,000 10,000 CAPTURE 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 prelim.Source: General Statistical Office of Vietnam, 2009
  • 52. 30 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Figure 4 Aquaculture Area and Production in Vietnam’s Southern Provinces, 2009 AQUACULTURE AREA, HA AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION, T6,788 307,703 219,627 71,008 669,334 67,552 11,713 20,88514,383 9,298 653,374 998,255 Black tiger shrimp Pacific whiteleg shrimp Mollusks Catfish Giant prawn OtherSource: VASEP (2010)aquaculture (Kam et al. 2010) looked at the eco- used for shrimp production), while freshwaternomics of adaptation to climate change for some catfish farming accounts for 47 percent of totalaquaculture products and for some areas. aquaculture production by weight (Figure 4).Aquaculture in Vietnam is dominated by brack- The regional distribution of cultured shrimp andish-water and freshwater production systems. fish are reasonably representative of the geo-Shrimp dominates the brackish-water aquacul- graphical differences in the dominance of brack-ture production, accounting for 98 percent of the ish-water and freshwater aquaculture productionproduction volume, while fish accounted for 99 respectively. The Mekong River Delta accountspercent of freshwater production in 2005. Esti- for about 80 percent of the country’s total shrimp Omates by the Department of Aquacultureof the production (which includes brackish-water shrimpMinistry of Agriculture and Rural Development and freshwater prawns), while the coastal prov- GP(MARD) put the 2009 aquaculture area in the inces in central Vietnam account for about 15 per-southern provinces (from Da Nang to Ca Mau) cent. The Mekong River Delta has also increasedat 927,000 ha with total production of 2.1 million CAT its share of the country’s cultured fish productiontons, accounting for 79 percent of the country’s from 67 percent in 2005 to an estimated 75 percenttotal aquaculture area and 80 percent of the total in 2008, mainly due to the expansion of the catfish MOLaquaculture output (VASEP 2010). Pond culture industry. Freshwater catfish production now domi-of brackish-water shrimp dominates in terms of nates cultured fish production in the Mekong River PWSfarm area (71 percent of all aquaculture area is Delta, but there are also many other freshwater BTS
  • 53. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 31 Figure 5 Value of (a) Brackish Waterand marine fish species that are cultured through- and (b) Catfish Producedout the country. The Red River Delta region ranks in the Mekong River Deltasecond in cultured fish production, but its share BRACKISH WATER AND MARINE PRODUCTION VALUEdeclined from about 20 percent to 15 percent from2005 to 2008. 100% 80%In the Mekong River Delta, striped catfish are 60%grown primarily in ponds with earth walls that aresited adjacent to rivers to permit a high level of 40%water exchange between river and ponds. It is an 20%air-breathing species that can tolerate low levels of 0%dissolved oxygen—that is, highly polluted water— 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006and high stocking rates, so it can be grown in loca-tions where the water is not suitable for other uses. Shrimp Clam Blood cockle OtherCatfish cultivation is mostly a small-scale activity.The typical pond has an area of 0.4 ha, and less 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006than 10 percent of operators have more than four Other 3227 3852 4917 3228 2223 3028 2436ponds. Extensive shrimp production takes place Blood 18 18 23 24 56 123 160in large coastal ponds relying upon tidal water cockleexchange but stocked from hatcheries, with the Clam 133 226 248 306 270 278 342use of fertilizers to promote the growth of natural Shrimp 4964 8759 10133 13592 17790 19700 23367organisms to feed the shrimp. Semi-intensive orintensive production methods use smaller pondsand higher stocking rates, relying upon water FRESHWATER PRODUCTION VALUEpumps and aeration to maintain water quality as 100%well as a variety of formulated feedstuffs. The most 80%intensive production methods require substantialinputs of capital and skilled labor. 60% 40%In summary, 20%■■ Aquaculture in Vietnam has grown rapidly in 0% the course of the last decade and has overtaken 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 capture fisheries in terms of growth of the sector. Catfish Other fish Giant prawn Other■■ The aquaculture sector is dominated by shrimp 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 and catfish. Other 105 143 150 218 367 721 869■■ Geographically, the Mekong River Delta Giant 73 98 133 168 155 178 270 prawn accounts for the largest share of the sector’s Other 941 1021 1034 1144 1783 1811 2216 activities. fish Catfish 595 640 1124 1612 2841 4209 6825Hence, this study focuses on freshwater catfishand brackish-water shrimp in the Mekong River Note: Tabulated values are in billion VNĐ. Source: Research Institute of Aquaculture No.2 (RIA2).Delta (Figure 5).
  • 54. 32 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G EA recent strategy document (MARD 2009) pro- Examples of potential impacts are illustrated invides targets for fisheries production up to 2020. Figure 6. The direct impact of sea level rise mayThe production target for aquaculture is 4.5 mil- be particularly important as increased floodinglion metric tons in 2020 (Table 24). It estimated and salinity intrusion will affect coastal aquacul-that about 1.3 million ha of water bodies will be ture installations, especially ponds that are locatedexploited for aquaculture activities, of which there right along the coast. Higher tides will obstructare 0.6 million ha of freshwater area and 0.7 mil- river discharge into the sea and exacerbate flood-lion ha of brackish-water and marine areas. A ing further inland. Any increase in the intensitysecond plan approved by MARD focuses exclu- and frequency of extreme climatic events suchsively on catfish production. From 2010 to 2020, as storms may affect aquaculture production bythe total area under catfish culture is expected to damaging production assets and transport infra-increase by 4.2 percent per year, reaching 13,000 structure required for access to markets.ha by 2020. Export turnover is expected to growat 5.9 percent per year, reaching $1.85 billion, Vulnerability of aquaculture in the Mekongwhich will account for 45–50 percent of the pro- River Delta. A vulnerability analysis of aqua-jected aquaculture exports of $5.0–$5.5 billion. culture in the Mekong River Delta focusing on the shrimp and catfish industry was carried out using an approach that follows the generalThe Impact of Climate IPCC conceptual framework. Four productionChange on Aquaculture systems were identified, two for catfish and two for shrimp:Climate change will affect the aquaculture sector ■■ Catfish (I).—pond culture of the tra cat-through a number of direct and indirect pathways. fish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) in inland Table 24 Aquaculture Development Targets up to 2020 Targets for: 2010 2015 2020Total production 000 tons 2,600 3,650 4,500Brackish-water shrimp 000 tons 400 550 700Catfish 000 tons 1,250 1,800 2,000Mollusk 000 tons 200 250 300Marine fish 000 tons 50 150 200Tilapia 000 tons 70 100 150Sea weed 000 tons 75 100 150Freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium) 000 tons 20 40 60Other species 000 tons 35 60 90Traditional fish 000 tons 500 600 850Export turnover billion US$ 2.8 3.5–4.0 5.0–5.5Labor 000 people 2,800 3,000 3,000Source: MARD (2009).
  • 55. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 33 Figure 6 Global Warming and Fisheries/Aquaculture: Potential Impacts EFFECTS ON: GLOBAL WARMING SPECIES COMPOSITION PRODUCTION & YIELD OCEAN CURRENTS SPECIES DISTRIBUTION PRODUCTION ECOLOGY DISEASES ENSO GROWTH RATE CALCIFICATION SEAL LEVEL RISE SITE SELECTIONS/CULTURE METHODS RAINFALL INFRASTRUCTURE AQUACULTURE OPERATIONS AFFORDABILITY OF FEED EVAPORATION SCALE AND INTENSITY RIVER FLOWS LOSS/DAMAGE TO LIVELIHOOD THERMAL STRUCTURE ASSETS COMMUNITIES LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES STORM SEVERITY LIVELIHOODS RISK TO HEALTH AND LIFE DISPLACEMENT AND CONFLICT STORM FREQUENCY ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION COSTS ACIDIFICATION MARKET IMPACTS WIDER SOCIETY AND ECONOMY WATER ALLOCATION SALINITY FLOODPLAIN AND COASTAL DEFENSESource: Based on Badjeck et al. (2009). provinces of An Giang, Dong Thap, Cantho provinces of the Delta (and also in Central and Vinh Long. Vietnam and the Red River Delta).■■ Catfish (C)—pond culture of tra catfish To assess vulnerability, a combination of qualita- in coastal MRD provinces of Soc Trang tive and quantitative methods was used. At Step and Ben Tre: the movement of freshwa- 1, the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity ter catfish culture towards the coast began of production systems were assessed. At Step 2, in 2002. secondary data and expert knowledge were used to identify exposure and sensitivity at the farm■■ Shrimp (Ext)—the black tiger shrimp (Peneaus level. At Step 3, geographical information system monodon) cultured at improved extensive scale (GIS) methods were used to map the potential mainly in Ca Mau province in the Mekong impacts of sea level rise on catfish and shrimp River Delta. farms. Finally, at Step 4 the capacity of the cat- fish and shrimp industries to adapt to change was■■ Shrimp (SII)—P. monodon cultured at semi- investigated. The vulnerability analysis produced intensive/intensive scale in most other coastal the following results.
  • 56. 34 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 25 Main Salinity and Temperature Requirements for Catfish and Shrimp Catfish ShrimpTo in ponds (oC) Optimum range for channel catfish growth 29.8 ± 1.0 °C (Duong, N.D., 2006) is 28–30°C (Hargreaves and Tucker 2003) Morning: 28.3 ± 0.5 °C Afternoon: 30.5 ± 0.5 °CSalinity tolerance (ppt) Channel catfish can survive and grow in Range 15–30 ppt; optimum growth 25 ppt. slightly salty water (Buttner, n.d) Survival rates not significantly affected by salinity in the range 10–35 pptNote: ppt = parts per thousand.Exposure. Lower rainfall during the dry season species— particularly the river catfish—that per-coupled with increased air temperature will result form well in high water temperatures of aroundin higher water losses from ponds, especially 30°C.10 The main effect of temperature rise isthe larger extensive-scale shrimp ponds, hence increased metabolic rates, which can enhanceincreasing water salinity in the ponds. This may growth rates provided that feeding is correspond-require the addition of freshwater to ponds dur- ingly increased, hence incurring increased costing the dry season, when there will likely be com- but reduced time to grow to the preferred size.peting demands for freshwater from other sectors Another effect is increased organic decompo-(agricultural, industrial, and domestic). sition rates, which may lead to fouling of the water, particularly in closed culture systemsIn general, the effects of projected changes in such as ponds. Decreased dissolved oxygen maylocalized rainfall on water availability for aqua- require increased aeration, particularly in inten-culture ponds are not likely to be as significant as sive culture of shrimp, which are more sensitivethose of changes in sea level and upstream hydro- to reduced oxygenation than catfish. River catfishpower development in the Mekong Basin. Projec- can tolerate poor water quality, including hightions of climate-related changes in mean annual organic matter or low dissolved oxygen levels. Itflow in the Mekong River range from 5 percent is important to note that temperature responses(Hoanh et al. 2003) to 20 percent (Eastham et al. are species specific. While some species will be2008). In comparison, planned large hydropower adversely affected, others are better adapted toprojects in the Mekong are projected to increase high temperature and possess a wide thermal tol-dry-season flows by 10–50 percent and decrease erance zone—such as the catfish H. brachysoma—wet season flows by 6–16 percent (Hang and Len- and could be introduced in tropical freshwatersnaerts 2008). (Dalvia et al. 2009).Sensitivity. Catfish and shrimp species have dif- Sea level rise will gradually impact marine andferent physiological characteristics, especially in brackish aquaculture with saltwater intrusion,terms of salinity tolerance, with catfish being able requiring the farming of species that tolerateto tolerate only slightly salty water (Table 25). high salinity. Increasing extremes of weather pat-Effects of temperature rise and salinity increase terns and storms will be another hazard to coastalon cultured species in the Mekong River Delta industries. Storm surges, waves, and coastal ero-are still not well-studied and data are scant on sion could have a larger effect than the rise in meanmaximum salinity thresholds. high water level (2WE Associates Consulting Ltd.The increased temperature would be within 10 http://www.richardsbrothersseafoods.com.au/basa_farming.the tolerance range of the main cultured htm.
  • 57. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 35Figure 7 Areas in An Giang, Dong Thap, and Can Tho Provinces Subjected to Increments of Maximum Flooding Depths for 50-cm SLR Scenario2000). There is already evidence of coastal ero- during the rainy season and where catfish farmerssion as a result of damages to sea dikes in the Cau already have experience in dealing with these sea-Mau Province. sonal floods. Table 26 provides the estimates of areas of catfish ponds that will be affected by suc-Potential impacts: flooding. Extensive shrimp and cessive increments of maximum flooding depthsinland catfish farming are particularly sensitive to during the rainy season.flooding. The catfish-rearing areas of An Giang,Dong Thap, and Can Tho are most likely to be An increase in flooding depth directly due to sea-affected by increased flooding during the rainy level rise will be experienced along the coastalseason as a result of a combination of sea level rise strip facing the South China Sea that is not pro-and changes in rainfall patterns. Figure 7 illustrates tected by salinity control systems. This is mostthe geographical pattern of projected increases in evident south of the national road 1 joining themaximum flood levels during the rainy season for towns of Bac Lieu and Ca Mau.a 50-cm SLR scenario. The greatest incrementsin flooding depth are projected to occur in the Potential impacts: salinity. Salinity intrusion is espe-inland provinces, which already experience floods cially important for shrimp and coastal catfishfrom the discharge of the Mekong River yearly aquaculture. The brackish-water shrimp areas in
  • 58. 36 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 26 Estimates of Catfish Pond Area (ha) that will be Subjected to Increments of Maximum Flooding Depths in the Rainy Season under 50-cm SLR Scenario Affected catfish pond areaIncrement of max flood depth (m) An Giang Dong Thap Can Tho ha % ha % ha %<0.50.5–11–1.5 178 13 273 261.5–2 163 8 89 6 509 482–2.5 1,236 62 211 15 286 272.5–3 394 20 497 36>3 210 10 402 29Total 2,003 100 1,376 100 1,068 100 Figure 8 Areas Subjected to Increments of Maximum Water Salinity or 50-cm SLR scenario
  • 59. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 37the coastal provinces stretching from Tra Vinh the 50-cm SLR scenario. Substantial areas of irri-to Ca Mau are likely to be affected by increased gated and rainfed rice or rice-aquaculture may besalinity intrusion during the dry season, especially affected in this way. While this would be bad forwhere the shrimp ponds are outside of the areas rice production, it represents an opportunity toprotected by the coastal embankments and water extend either the period or the area of brackish-control sluices. Even though the salinity tolerance water aquaculture in the Mekong River Delta.of black tiger shrimp can be as high as 35–40 ppt,this tolerance is limited by disease problems. Economic AnalysisFigure 8 shows where increments in maximum of Adaptationwater salinity under the 50-cm SLR scenario areprojected to occur. The greatest increments inmaximum salinity are expected to occur around The economic analysis of adaption to climatethe area where Ca Mau, Bac Lieu, and Kien Giang change in aquaculture focuses on the two mainprovinces meet. The shrimp ponds in this area export-oriented activities in Vietnam—freshwa-would be subjected to increments of maximum ter catfish (in particular the tra catfish, Pangasian-salinity exceeding 2 ppt in the dry season. Increased odon hypophthalmus) and brackish-water shrimp (inwater salinity, particularly in the dry season, would particular the black tiger shrimp, Peneaus monodon).require additional pumping of freshwater to main- For catfish, the analysis focused on the pond cul-tain the required salinity levels for brackish-water ture system, since about 95 percent of catfishshrimp culture. For most other parts of the delta, are now cultured in ponds. For shrimp, the eco-which are already protected from salinity intru- nomics of production focused on the black tigersion by existing water control infrastructure, incre- shrimp, which is the dominant species, althoughments in maximum salinity are relatively smaller, the Pacific white leg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei)not exceeding 1 ppt. Where catfish rearing has has recently been introduced into the Mekongexpanded toward the coast, in Vinh Long and Ben River Delta. The classification of production sys-Tre provinces, it is possible that the ponds may be tems used in the vulnerability analysis is retainedexposed to slightly higher salinity levels. in considering adaptation.Table 27 shows the types of agricultural and aqua- The main steps in the economic analysis areculture land use that may experience increases in shown in Figure 9. Steps 1 to 3 were conductedmaximum salinity levels exceeding 4 ppt under at the farm level for the four production systems. Adaptation measures undertaken at the farm level in response to the impact of climate change Table 27 Land Use Types that will be Subjected to > 4 ppt Maximum are mainly autonomous in nature. For Step 4, the Salinity Intrusion in the Dry analysis was conducted at the industry level for Season under 50-cm SLR Scenario the Mekong River Delta to estimate the overall Land use category Area (000 ha) costs of adaptation measures. Step 5 deals with Irrigated rice 159 planned adaptation measures undertaken beyond Mangrove 66 individual farms, and are mainly government- Mangrove + shrimp pond 77 initiated and funded. Many of these planned Rainfed rice 190 adaptation measures, such as building protective sea and river dikes, will serve various purposes, Rice-aquaculture 83 of which adaptation for the aquaculture sector is Shrimp pond 384 only one.
  • 60. 38 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Figure 9 Steps in the Economic Analysis FARM-LEVEL COSTS AND EARNINGS FOR FOUR PRODUCTION SYSTEMS STEP ONE (TWO CATFISH, TWO SHRIMP) EXPERT ELICITATION: CHANGE IN LAST TEN YEARS, PERCEPTIONS FOR THE STEP TWO NEXT TEN YEARS AND ATTRIBUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS DIRECT COSTS PLUS AUTONOMOUS ADAPTATION COSTS, AND BENEFITS, STEP THREE AT FARM LEVEL FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS AND BEYOND TO 2050 SCALE UP TO INDUSTRY LEVEL TO ASSESS COST IMPLICATIONS STEP FOUR FOR AQUACULTURE BENEFITS TO FARMERS DUE TO PLANNED ADAPTATION MEASURES STEP FIVE UNDERTAKEN BY THE GOVERNMENTThe economic impact of climate change at the farming is strongly negative. Without adaptation,farm level. The results generated at Steps 1 and the net income from inland catfish production may2 of the analysis must be interpreted very care- fall by 3,000 million VNĐ per ha in 2020 as a con-fully. They are not projections for the future prof- sequence of climate change. This reduction mayitability of different aquaculture systems. Instead nearly treble by 2050 (Figure 10). If this analysis ofthey are intended to provide a baseline for assess- the impact of climate change is even roughly cor-ing (a) the net impact of climate change on future rect, autonomous and planned adaptation is criti-profitability, and (b) the viability of various options cal for the future success of the industry.for autonomous and planned adaptation to offsetthe impact of climate change. The baselines for Shrimp. The direct impact of climate change onthe next decade to 2020 reflect general percep- net income from both extensive and (semi-) inten-tions about changes to the catfish and shrimp sec- sive shrimp farming is negative, more strongly sotors in the near future. For the period after 2020, for extensive farming. Without adaptation, thethe baseline relies on fairly simple extrapolation net income from (semi-)intensive shrimp pro-of long trends. In reality, there is a large amount duction may fall by 130 million VNĐ per ha inof uncertainty about demand for seafood, input 2020. This reduction may increase to 950 mil-prices, and other costs of production. Thus, the lion VNĐ in 2050 (Figure 11). Again, adaptationonly relevance of the baseline is to provide a start- to climate change is critical for the future successing point for the analysis of climate change. of the industry.Catfish. The direct impact of climate change on Autonomous adaptation. The primary optionsnet income from both inland and coastal catfish for autonomous adaptation whose costs can be
  • 61. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 39estimated are (a) the replacement or upgrading 10,000 Figure 10Reduction in Net Income from Catfish Farming due toof pond dikes to reduce the extent of flooding Climate Change without Adaptation 8,000and saline intrusion, and (b) additional expen- (VNĐ Million per ha)ditures on electricity and fuel to maintain water 6,000 10,000levels and salinity in ponds. However, these areonly part of what is likely to be a much larger 4,000 8,000response to climate change. A combination of 2,000selective breeding programs with changes in 6,000farming practices should permit the farming of 0catfish species that can tolerate higher levels of 4,000 2020 2030 2040 2050salinity. Funding the breeding programs would 2,000 Coastal Inlandfall to the government as an aspect of plannedadaptation, but the adoption of different species 0and the modification of farming practices will 2020 2030 2040 2050fall to those responsible for managing aquacul- Coastal Inlandture operations.It is important to recognize that autonomous Figure 11 Reduction in Net Incomeadaptation will not take place in isolation from from Shrimp Farming due to Climate Change without Adaptationother changes. The scale of the aquaculture sec- (VNĐ Million per ha)tor has increased more than 5 times over the lastdecade. If it is to continue to grow, it will face 10,000a variety of challenges that will require changesin farming practices, marketing, investment , and 8,000many other activities. Autonomous adaptation 6,000should be seen as one aspect of a much broader 10,000process by which the sector reaches maturity 4,000 8,000after a period of quite exceptional growth. Whilesome of the specific costs of autonomous adap- 2,000 6,000tation may be identified for analytical purposes,the reality will be one of continuing change in 0 4,000response to a wide variety of economic, physical, 2020 2030 2040 2050and climatic factors, in which the specific role of 2,000 Extensive (Semi-) Intensiveadaptation to a changing climate may be difficultto distinguish from other factors. 0 2020 2030 2040 2050Catfish. On current trends, catfish farming faces they will also reinforce the benefits of “no regrets” Extensive (Semi-) Intensivean uncertain future because gross revenues may strategies, which will increase margins and enablenot keep pace with the increase in input costs, operators to underwrite the costs of adaptation.particularly for feed, which constitutes the larg- Such strategies include:est cost. Only the most efficient and adaptablefarmers may be able to survive such a squeeze on ■■ Improving feed conversion ratios by the devel-farming margins, which are currently in the 3–5 opment and adoption of better practices,percent range. The additional costs of adapting including breeding, feed formulation, and dis-to climate change will intensify this squeeze, but ease control.
  • 62. 40 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E■■ Consolidation of the value chain by vertical government incentives. To the extent that dike integration. Transferring the very high mar- construction to mitigate river and coastal flood- gin from retailers in importing countries and ing or saline intrusion provides ancillary benefits export processing companies to farmers either to agriculture and other sectors, then adaptation through actions by the companies and/or the costs borne by the aquaculture sector could be retailers—that is, market responses to maintain significantly lower. At the moment, however, there the supply to meet growth in demand—or by appears to be no mechanism for either assessing government intervention will increase both the or sharing the joint benefits of such infrastructure. incentive and capacity of aquaculture opera- This is a matter that deserves further investigation tors to adapt to climate change. and consideration in the future.The catfish industry is more heavily capitalized Shrimp. Current trends for shrimp production arethan the shrimp industry, making restructuring of not as unfavorable as those for catfish farming.the sector and quick response from medium- or Having had a longer history, the shrimp industrylarge-scale farmers to salinity intrusion and floods is relatively better established and more stable.possible with the right market (demand) and The extensive shrimp system is less profitable but
  • 63. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 41has a lower impact on the environment, so it may Water exchange and pumping of water is notbe particularly important for small-scale farmers. practiced in extensive systems to the same high level as with semi-intensive/intensive systems forOverall, it is likely that inland catfish farmers will all systems. Since the industry is both capital-experience the highest costs in adapting to the intensive and growing rapidly, adaptation is likelyincreased risks of floods and salinity intrusion. to be autonomous with the costs borne by opera-While costs for shrimp systems overall are likely to tors. The total cost of adaptation is estimated at anbe lower, the cost of water pumping in semi-inten- average of $130 million per year from 2010–50,sive/intensive systems will increase significantly. which is equivalent to 2.4 percent of total costs.
  • 64. 42 F IV E E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
  • 65. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 43ForestryIn 2008 about 39 percent of Vietnam’s land climate where they are distributed are summa-area was forested, with 79 percent of this total rized in Table 29. The EACC sector study onas natural forests and 21 percent as plantation forestry (Phuong et al. 2010, Almeida et al. 2010)forests. The total area of forests declined from carried out a preliminary analysis of what the1940 to 1995, but has recovered since then as a impacts of climate change will be on natural for-consequence of a substantial increase in the area ests and plantations.of plantation forests. The regional distribution offorests in 2006 is shown in Table 28. In the Cen- The total standing volume of wood in the coun-tral Highlands, North-Central, and North-East try in late 2005 amounted to 811 million m3, ofregions, forest cover is generally high, and reaches which natural forest accounted for 93 percent and54 percent in the Central Highlands. However, in plantation forest for the remaining 7 percent. Thethe Red River Delta, South-East, and South-West bulk of this volume is located in three regions: theregions, forest cover is less than 20 percent. The Central Highlands (34 percent), North-Centralmain types of forests and the characteristics of region (23 percent), and South-Central region (17 Table 28 Forest Area and Cover by Region, 2006 Region Forested area (ha) Natural forest (ha) Plantation forest (ha) Forest cover (%) North West 1,508,740 1,399,167 109,573 40.3 North East 3,164,873 2,270,803 894,070 47.9 Red River Delta 95,819 47,299 48,520 7.6 North Central 2,611,525 2,076,940 534,585 50.7 Central Coastal 1,775,770 1,444,856 330,914 40.6 Central Highland 2,976,951 2,824,837 152,114 54.6 South East 431,135 286,192 144,943 18.2 South West 309,037 60,045 248,991 7.7 Total 12,873,851 10,410,141 2,463,710 38.0 Source: MARD (2007).
  • 66. 44 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 29 Classification of Forest Types by Location and Climate Characteristics Forest type Location Climate characteristicsTropical evergreen Widely distributed at elevations Mean annual temperature 20–25°C,broad-leaved forest below 700 m (all altitude measures annual rainfall > 1,200 mm with 2–3 are m above sea level in the north dry months (Trung 1998) and below 1,000 m in the south (Chan and Dung 1992; Trung 1998)Tropical semi-deciduous Concentrated in northern Vietnam Mean annual temperature 20–25°C,broad-leaved forest and the Central Highlands at the annual rainfall 1,200–2,500 mm with same elevation as the tropical ever- 4–6 dry months (Trung 1998) green broad-leaved forest (Chan and Dung 1992; Linh 1996; Trung 1998)Tropical deciduous At an elevation of less than 700 m Low–moderate rainfall (> 600 mm)broad-leaved forest in the north, and below 1,000 m in with 4–6 dry months (Trung 1998) the south.Subtropical evergreen forest At altitudes above 700 m in the Subtropical with mean annual north and above 1000 min the south temperature ranges 15–20°C, annual (Chan and Dung 1992; Hung 1996). rainfall 1,200–2,500 mm (Chan and Dung 1992)Limestone forest On the limestone substrate (calcare- The area of limestone forest ous soil) and under hard climatic accounts for 5 percent of forested conditions, mostly over a large area land (Phon et al. 2001; Dung 2005); of the north (GoVN 1994; Truong it has been severely degraded by 1996). uncontrolled logging, wildfire, and slash and burn cultivation (GoV 1994; Phon et al. 2001)Coniferous forest Distributed in the north and the Cen- Annual precipitation 600–1,200 mm tral Highlands, at elevations of over (Chan & Dung 1992) with 4–6 dry 1,000 m where the climate is cool months (Trung 1998) in summer and cold in winter (Chan and Dung 1992; Truong 1996)Dipterocarp forest Between the latitudes of 140 N Mean annual temperatures 21–27°C, and 110 N and at the altitudes of annual rainfall 1,200–1,800 mm 400–800 m; mainly distributed in Dak with 4–6 dry months; the area of Lak and Gia Lai provinces dipterocarp forest is about 3 percent of forested land (Nghia 2005); Dipterocarp forest is particularly vulnerable to fireMelaleuca forest In the Mekong River Delta at or Mean annual temperature 27°C, slightly above sea level under tropi- annual rainfall 1,500–2,400 mm; this cal conditions with no winter forest has been severely degraded and is less than 1 percent of forested landMangrove forest In tidal areas along the coast, (Sam et al. 2005). especially in estuaries (Chan and Dung 1992; Sam et al. 2005); most prevalent in the south (GoV 1994)Bamboo forest Throughout the country; succes- Bamboo forests are about 11 sion after harvesting of the natural percent of forested land forests or slash and burn cultivation (Chan and Dung 1992)
  • 67. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 45percent) (MARD 2007). With respect to planta- pests, and disease). The outcomes will vary acrosstion forests, the North-East, North-Central, and types of forest and management regimes. ForSouth-Central coastal regions have the largest large areas of natural forest, the primary con-plantation timber volume. These three regions cerns focus on forest fires, pests, and disease.are the main suppliers to the paper and wood On the other hand, a substantial portion ofproducts industries. plantation forests are managed as short-rotation crops—usually 6–8 years—that are harvested toIn terms of exploitation, the bulk of the extracted supply industries using pulp or wood chips. Suchvolume— approximately 2.5 to 3 million m3 a regime is equivalent to a perennial agriculturalper year—is currently provided by plantation crop for which the impact of climate change onforest, and approximately 150,000 to 300,000 plant yields is likely to be of prime concern. Thesem3 per year comes from natural forest (MARD are discussed in more detail below.2007). Following the limitation on natural forestexploitation, the area of plantation forest, par- Forest fires. Fire risk is a function of fuel load,ticularly the area of plantation production forest, weather patterns, and ignition source. In forests,increased sharply—from a total of 872,275 ha of growth rate is positively related to the amount ofplantation production forest in 1999 to nearly 1.7 litter and woody debris produced (Paul and Pol-million ha in 2006. Similarly, the total produc- glase 2004); net fuel load is determined by the bal-tion forest area in 2006 rose 13 percent above ance between production and decomposition. Inthat in 1999. some species, an elevated atmospheric CO2 con- centration is associated with both higher growth (Ayres and Lombadero 2000) and decreased ratesThe Impact of Climate of litter decomposition. If future climates inChange on Forests Vietnam are associated with higher growth and lower decomposition rates, fuel load will increase. However, decomposition rates increase with tem-It is likely that climate change will have a signifi- perature, humidity, and moisture content so thecant impact on Vietnam’s forests, but many of the balance between these variables in future climateseffects will only be apparent over the long term in Vietnam will determine final fuel load.because of the nature of interactions betweenclimate and forest development. Thus it is impor- As global climate models predict higher tempera-tant to distinguish between the possible effects of tures, reduced rainfall, and an increased vaporclimate change on: (a) the productivity of exist- pressure deficit for Vietnam, the net effect is likelying forests over the next 20–40 years, and (b) the to be drier fuel and an increase in the length anddevelopment and migration of different types severity of the fire season. Forests most at riskof forest up to and beyond 2100 as a result of of fire damage will be those that are older withchanges in the suitability of a given area for dif- greater build-up of litter and debris, those associ-ferent forest types. ated with debris from thinning and previous har- vesting, and those with a persistent woody weedChanges in forest productivity up to 2050. understory (Pinkard et al. 2010).There is considerable uncertainty as to how cli-mate change will affect the productivity of exist- According to Be Minh Chau (2008):ing forests. This will depend on the interactionbetween direct influences (rainfall, temperature, ■■ In the North-Central coast, the risk of for-and solar radiation) and indirect influences (fire, est fires will increase in the coming decades.
  • 68. 46 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Compared to existing risk, the risk of forest forests in Vietnam. Among those species, Dendroli- fires is projected to increase by 6–40 percent mus punctatus Walker (the Masson pine moth) by 2020, 16–52 percent by 2050, and 51–85 has caused serious damage at intermittent percent by 2100. intervals and in various parts of the country since 1940, with most damage occurring in■■ In the North-West region, the risk of forest fires pine plantations. In recent years, there have is project to significantly increase in December also been epidemics of leaf-eating insects, which and January. Compared to existing risk, the can cause damage to large areas of forest. risk of forest fires is projected to increase by 5–41 percent by 2020, 16–35 percent by 2050, Insect dynamics are a function of temperature and by 25–113 percent by 2100. and rainfall (Pinkard et al. 2008); insects also vary in their capacity to tolerate drought or wet condi-■■ In other zones, the risk of forest fires is also tions. Depending on species, the balance of these projected to increase, though this has not yet environmental drivers will potentially shorten or been quantified. lengthen periods when the insect is quiescent. Host dynamics determine whether there is an adequateDrought. Plant-water or drought stress occurs when food source for the insect to complete its life cycle.pre-dawn plant-water potential drops below a Hosts suffering from drought stress often attractcritical level and triggers stomatal closure, leading stem borers. Stress caused by increased frequencyto reduced levels of photosynthesis and growth. of typhoon and storm damage, drought, and fireFurther reductions in potential occur as avail- are likely to encourage associated insect damage.able water is depleted from the soil profile. Severedrought conditions are associated with leaf shed- Temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, and relativeding and mortality. humidity affect disease reproduction, spore disper- sal, and infection by pathogens (Ayres and Lom-Water limitation is often the major factor deter- badero 2000). The infection process is stronglymining forest productivity in current climates; influenced by the duration of surface wetness orfuture climates are likely to increase its impor- high humidity in most terrestrial environments.tance (Battaglia et al. 2009), particularly in coun- All these processes will be modified by climatetries like Vietnam that already experience long change signals. Susceptibility to exotic pathogensdry seasons. Leaf area index or leaf area per unit may also change. Fungal diversity is very largeland area is a key determinant of growth because and this in itself complicates prediction. Patho-of its influence on light interception. Leaf area gens most likely to respond directly and quickly toindex is also positively related to levels of avail- climate-change signals are those with short gener-able water. Extended dry seasons and reduced ation times, high rates of reproduction, and effec-average levels of available water point to lower tive dispersal mechanisms (Pinkard et al. 2008).average LAI and reduced average growth rates. In Vietnam, as elsewhere, increased or reduced damage to forests by particular groups of patho-It appears likely that drought risk will increase in gens may be the outcome.future climates, though there may be periods dur-ing the growing season when higher growth rates Pests and diseases are often a secondary compo-than experienced in current climates may prevail. nent influencing how trees respond to drought to protect themselves. Moderate water deficitPests and diseases. MARD (2006) provides informa- has been shown to increase secondary defensetion on species of pests and diseases that damage compounds that strengthen defense (Ayres and
  • 69. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 47Lombadero 2000). Conversely, severe drought abundance may increase or decrease. Speciescan lead to a decrease in defense compounds and niche models run with current and future climateother changes that favor pathogen development. scenarios could play an important role in defining opportunities for strategic weed management andIn summary, the key factors that are likely to for planning surveillance activities aimed at iden-determine the impact of climate change on the tifying emerging weed problems.effects of pests and diseases will be changes in thefrequency or severity of droughts and/or dry peri- Plantation productivity. The impact of climate changeods and levels of humidity. Higher temperatures on the productivity of short-rotation plantationmay favor the growth and reproduction of pests forests in Vietnam was assessed by using 3-PGand diseases, but trees that are growing vigor- model, a tool developed by the Commonwealthously may have a greater capacity to resist attack. Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationHence, it is changes in the pattern of monthly (CSIRO). The 3-PG model is designed to quan-rainfall that may have the most significant effect tify forest production based on the main principleson the level of losses due to pests and diseases. and concepts that drive forest growth, including solar radiation, leaf area index, and soil water,Weeds. The economic cost of weeds to Vietnam among others parameters. The tool also helpshas not been quantified. Experiments elsewhere to estimate carbon production, partitioning, andshow that effective weed control, especially at water use under current and future climates.establishment and in the early years of plantationdevelopment, significantly increases seedling sur- In this study, the impacts of climate change onvival and tree growth and that these effects can be two plantation species were assessed using 3-PG:long-lasting. Acacia mangium and Eucalyptus urophylla. The two species are the most common species used forThe direct effects of climate change on trees and forest plantations in Vietnam. The study teamweeds are mainly expressed through changes examined both species using spatial informationin temperature, moisture content, and elevated on soils, climate and other variables. Unfortu-CO2. Responses may differ significantly depend- nately, the 3-PG model could not be calibrateding on species and site. This asymmetry in plant to replicate the existing distribution of plantationresponse will be further modified by the indirect growth rates for Eucalyptus urophylla in differenteffects of climate change, particularly on pests parts of Vietnam, so no attempt was made toand pathogens (Battaglia et al. 2009). assess the impacts of climate change on this spe- cies. See the forestry sector report (Phuong et al.Most plant species have the potential to migrate 2010, Almeida et al. 2010) for a detailed explana-in response to climate change. Weeds are expected tion of the model.to be some of the earliest species to shift theirrange as the traits that make them invasive—such The 3-PG model predicts stand development;as efficient dispersal mechanisms—also predis- stem, root, and foliage biomass pools; stand waterpose them to respond rapidly to climate change use; and available soil water. It has five simple(Sutherst et al. 2007). submodels:Competition, predation, and parasitism contribute ■■ Assimilation of carbohydrates, predicted byto weed species abundance patterns in space and environmental modification of light use effi-time. Predicting how these factors will change under ciency and assuming a constant ratio of net tofuture climate scenarios remains undetermined; gross primary production
  • 70. 48 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 30 Impact of Climate Change on Stand Volumes of 7-year Acacia mangium (m3 per ha) Stand volume Distribution of changes in stand volume Period Minimum Maximum Mean Minimum Maximum Mean Current 123 295 250 - - - 2020 111 311 257 -21 105 7 2050 111 313 255 -42 106 5 2080 95 317 253 -79 112 3■■ Distribution of biomass between foliage, roots, predicted by the model. The average stand vol- and stems, influenced by growing conditions ume of plantations—if harvested on a 7-year and tree size rotation—increases marginally up to 2080, but this is accompanied by a significant increase in■■ Determination of stem number as determined the standard deviation of yields across districts by probability of death and self-thinning as well as large changes for specific districts. The impact of climate change is largest in the North-■■ Conversion of biomass into variables of inter- Central coastal area and in the Mekong Delta est to forest managers (canopy leaf area index, (decreases of more than 5 percent by 2080), while basal area, stem volume, average stem diame- in the North-East and the South-East the change ter at breast height, mean annual stem-volume is less (decrease in the scale of 0–5 percent), but increment) the spatial extent of the change is larger.■■ Water balance of a single soil layer where The results suggest that there is large scope for evapotranspiration is calculated using the Pen- autonomous adaptation, which would take the man-Monteith equation. form of expanding the area of plantation forests in districts where yields are increasing and reduc-Data required to run 3-PG include monthly ing it in other areas. With short rotations, forestryclimate data (air temperature, solar radiation, managers are easily able to adjust choices of geno-rainfall, and number of frost days), site factors types, cultivation practices, and where plantation(latitude, soil texture, maximum available soil forests are located to respond to changes in climatewater storage, and soil fertility rating), initial con- conditions that affect yields in particular locations.ditions of biomass (stem, roots and foliage) and The main issue that is likely to constrain autono-stocking rates, and management conditions (fer- mous adaptation will be competition betweentilizer applications, irrigation, and thinning). timber and other crops for land in areas that have become more favorable for timber production,The results from applying the 3-PG model to the since the factors that increase timber yields maymanagement of Acacia mangium short-rotation also increase the yields of competing crops.plantations are summarized in Table 30. Theranges shown in the table refer to geographical Long-term impacts of climate change onvariation taking account of differences in cli- natural forests. Over the long term, climatemate, soil, and other variables across districts in change will cause the boundaries between differ-Vietnam. Note that the maximum and minimum ent types of forest to move as the distributionsvalues for the changes in stand volume refer to of tree species change under new climatic condi-the maximum or minimum values of the changes tions. The process of “migration” is likely to be
  • 71. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 49 Table 31 Estimated Areas Climatically Suited to some Forest Types Actual area 2000 Suitable area 2050 Suitable area 2100 Forest type 000 ha % 000 ha % 000 ha % Dipterocarp 375 1.2 500 1.5 300 0.9 Tropical humid evergreen forest 1,210 3.6 1,500 4.4 650 1.9 Tropical humid semi-deciduous forest 3,830 11.4 1,300 3.9 1,200 3.5complex and will depend upon geography, pat- maximum temperature of the hottest month (°C);terns of land use, and forestry management. It (e) minimum temperature of the coldest monthmay involve forest die-back in isolated areas of (°C); and (f) average annual temperature (°C).forest or the invasion of existing forest areas byspecies that are better suited to new conditions. The assessment of the possible distribution ofTheoretically, different forest ecosystems can shift important forest types is summarized in Table 31.relatively easily in mountainous areas, as a smallchange in elevation can compensate for average Dipterocarp forest. The area with climate conditionschanges in temperature. As conditions become suitable for Dipterocarp forest in 2050 is likely towarmer, most ecosystems will shift upward in ele- be similar to that in 2000. However, the increasevation, but those that are already at the highest in average temperatures after 2050 will reduceelevations will be “squeezed out.” Shifts in coastal the area with suitable conditions to two zones inforests may be severely constrained by the lack of the north and south, whereas existing areas in theland to which an ecosystem can migrate, given Central Highlands may not support such forestsprevailing uses of land for agriculture or urban at the end of this century.development. For these reasons it is only possibleto assess the direction of the changes that might Tropical humid evergreen forest. Changes in climate upoccur. How these will work out in practice will to 2050 will increase the area suitable for tropi-depend upon many factors, of which forestry cal humid forests in the center and south of thepolicies may only be a small part. It is likely that country. However, longer term trends suggest thatmany changes in forest ecosystems, although areas with suitable climate conditions in the Cen-theoretically possible, may not be able to occur tral Coastal region will decline substantially, leav-at the same speed as climate change, resulting in ing less than 2 percent of land area suitable formajor impacts on natural ecosystems. this type of forest.A preliminary assessment of the possible changes Tropical humid semi-deciduous forest. This type of for-in forest distributions was carried out by using the est accounts for about 11.4 percent of Vietnam’sClimatic Mapping Program of Vietnam (Vu Tan total land area. It is likely to be heavily affectedPhuong et al. 2008). This assessment is based on by climate change, with a contraction in the areathe ecological requirement of each forest type with suitable conditions to less than 4 percent ofand the climate change scenarios developed by land area by 2050 and a slow decline thereafter.MoNRE (2009) in order to identify the climaticareas suitable for different forest ecosystems. For The reduction in the area suitable for semi-decid-this evaluation, the climatic factors considered uous forest is particularly important because theare (a) average annual rainfall (mm/year); (b) change is both rapid and affects forests that repre-rain regime; (c) length of dry season (months); (d) sent more than 36 percent of total natural forest.
  • 72. 50 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G EMost of the North-Central region will no longer as they rely on the deposition of sediment tobe suitable for semi-deciduous forest because support their growth and vitality. A net lower-of higher temperatures and rainfall, while suit- ing of sediment elevation because of rising seaable areas will be concentrated in the Central level is the greatest threat to mangroves, whichCoastal region and the Central Highlands. It is will be exacerbated if there is limited meansvery uncertain how existing forests will respond for landward migration. The area of mangroveto changes in climate conditions. One possibility forest will be reduced, and as a result the bio-is gradual die-back of some tree species accompa- diversity and the protection function of coastalnied by relative growth in species that are better mangrove forests will be significantly reduced.adapted to the changed climate. Since the regions Sea level rise will also affect the Melaleuca andaffected by the changes in climate suitability for plantation forests planted on salty land in thesemi-deciduous forest are an important focus for south (Thuc 2009).forest rehabilitation programs, it will be importantto take account of these changes when develop- IPCC (2007) reports that a 1-meter rise in meaning and implementing such programs both now sea level in Vietnam will affect 1,731 km2 of man-and in the longer term. grove forests due to inundation, so that Vietnam could lose up to 70 percent of its mangrove areaInvestigation of changes in areas that are suitable by the end of the century.for plantation forest is very limited. The impactsof climate change on two tree species (Chukrasia In the south of Vietnam, mangrove forests aretalbularis and Pinus merkusii) have been assessed by located mainly in Ca Mau, Kien Giang, andVu Tan Phuong et al. (2008). They conclude that: Soc Trang provinces, and in the north are in the North-East region and the Red River Delta. To■■ The area suitable for Chukrasia talbularis will fall date, there has not been a comprehensive study from about 1 million ha in 2000 to 0.2 mil- of the impacts of climate change on mangrove lion ha in 2100, concentrated in Ha Giang and forests. The followings are experts’ assessments of Cao Bang provinces next to China. these potential impacts:■■ The area suitable for Pinus merkusii will fall ■■ Mangrove forests can adapt to sea level but from about 5.4 million ha to 2.3 million ha, only in circumstances where the geographical primarily in the north. conditions allow them to do so. As a result, the general tendency is for the area of mangroveSea level rise. SLR has serious long-term conse- forest to become more limited. In the Redquences for mangrove forests (Gilman et al. 2007). River and Mekong River deltas, the mangroveMangrove belts provide significant coastal protec- forest is projected to be severely adverselytion (McLeod and Salm 2006) and areas that are impacted by sea level rise.vulnerable to damage from typhoons and erosion.For example, in the Red River Delta in Vietnam, a ■■ The projected increase in the frequency and100 meter wide protective mangrove belt in front intensity of storms and the associated storm surgeof a conventional earthen sea dike with rock is is expected to damage the mangrove forest.predicted to increase the lifetime of the dike fromfive to 50 years (Macintosh and Ashton 2002). ■■ On the other hand, it has been pointed out that temperature increases and a higher concentra-Mangrove ecosystems that are deprived of sedi- tion of CO2 in the atmosphere will speed upments are especially vulnerable to sea level rise the process of photosynthesis of the mangrove
  • 73. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 51 forest trees, so that its biological production activities that build upon existing good practice. may increase. The cost of such support should be modest in relation to current programs for forest rehabilita-Beside the mangrove ecosystem, the Melaleuca tion. The key initial priority will be to collect bet-forest ecosystem is also very sensitive to climate ter information on the impact of climate changechange. The biggest risk to the Melaleuca for- on forests and to use this information to developest ecosystem is the process of salinization in strategies that respond to the various conse-the estuaries. quences of climate change. As explained below, this may involve the selection of drought tolerant or disease resistant varieties of plantation trees orAdaptation Measures in the the dissemination of silviculture regimes designedForestry Sector to minimize fire risks. In all cases, the essential public role is to provide forestry managers with information and advice on the best responses toThe bulk of adaptation to climate change in changes in climate conditions.the forestry sector will be autonomous adapta-tion for plantation forests as a result of choices Forest fires. Adaptation options should targetmade by forestry managers or natural adaptation fire management and fuel load. Basic fire man-through the longer term response of forest eco- agement requires the strategic placement andsystems to different climate conditions. The role proper maintenance of adequate fire breaks.of the public sector in supporting adaptation will Inter-row plowing is regarded as good practicefocus upon research, development, and extension for fire management in plantation forests, as well
  • 74. 52 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Eas for weed control, although such treatment forest pests and pathogens will be an importantinvolves a tradeoff between minimizing fire risks element of any strategy for adaptation.and sustaining stand productivity. Debris shouldbe removed from sites for domestic fuel as this can ■■ Genetic selection—favoring forest varietiesobviate any requirement for fuel-reduction burn- and species that are adapted or adaptable toing, which is itself a risk, as fire damage to the new climatic conditions. Genotypes can alsoouter sapwood and conducting pathways in trees be identified that show a broad spectrum ofwill reduce stand productivity and risk mortality. tolerance to pests and diseases under variable climatic conditions.Drought. For plantation forests, adaptation willinvolve (a) the adoption of species and variet- ■■ Good information—adaptive management ofies that are more tolerant to droughts, and (b) pests in relation to climate variability dependschanges in silviculture to make best use of water upon information acquired being useful andin wood production. Both require an examination effective. An ongoing commitment to the iden-of how species respond to combinations of signals tification of insect pests, disease (and weed)associated with changing climates. threats are fundamental and must include the routine record keeping of climate and pest■■ In comparison to Acacia mangium, Acacia crassi- damage. Monitoring and predictive systems— carpa has a higher ratio of sapwood area to leaf for example, geographically sensitive models area, a characteristic associated with adapta- that use projected climate information—can tion to a dry environment. This is associated indicate likely changes in the timing and sever- with its capacity to maintain higher rates of ity of pest and disease outbreaks for both photosynthesis during the dry season (Don indigenous and non-native pests. White, pers. comm.). Within-species variation in these characteristics is worth investigation ■■ Integrated health management and area-wide and may be crucial for dealing with adaptation management—responding to changes in the to changing climates. timing, patterns, and severity of pest outbreaks is a central part of any strategy to maintain■■ Managing stands for their water use—for vigor and productivity under climate change. example, by planting at wider spacings or This will include changes in silviculture prac- through strategic thinning—is one option. tices such as rotation length, thinning, and fer- Species vary in their root development, so cul- tilization regimes. tivation techniques should be used to encour- age root development and improved access to Weeds. Weed control strategies can be divided water at depth. into three categories: (a) cultural, e.g. manual, mechanical, mulching, grazing, cover crops; (b)Pests and diseases. The crucial issue is to develop chemical; and (c) biological. In Vietnam, culturaland implement effective systems for managing methods provide the primary approach to weedpests and diseases under changing climate condi- control in plantation forests with limited use oftions. This will include the ability to respond effec- chemical methods. Response to changes in thetively to changes in host resistance or in insect and weed spectrum in Vietnam may involve greaterpathogen life cycles. focus on herbicides and biological control.■■ Quarantine—the maintenance and improve- ■■ Herbicides—the generation of herbicide-resis- ment of quarantine capabilities in respect to tant weeds is one risk associated with the use
  • 75. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 53 of herbicides. In Vietnam, it is unlikely that and analysis of data. Bioclimatic models are herbicide-resistant weeds will be generated available to examine potential weed species under current forestry management regimes distribution at a national scale. They predict in the short-to-medium term, partly because an average response to climate and are a com- of low rates of use but also because, where mon tool for identifying the potential range herbicides are used, most sites receive less than of weeds (and pests and diseases) as well as three applications during a rotation. If the use changes in species distributions related to cli- of herbicides becomes more frequent, the mate change. These models can be applied in risk of promoting herbicide resistance must the context of forestry in Vietnam. be assessed. One option might be the devel- opment of herbicide-tolerant varieties via Mangrove forests. The key issue is maintain- either conventional plant breeding or genetic ing the resilience of mangrove ecosystems. This modification. should include maintaining the ability of man- grove forests to function naturally in their original■■ Biological control—this involves the introduc- place with rising sea level, as well as its capacity tion of host-specific agents, usually insects or to migrate (Gilman et al., 2007). For existing for- fungi, for the control of a weed species. Bio- est, activities within a catchment should respect logical control agents can be selected to affect the need to maintain sediment elevation. Coastal only the target organism. Changing climates planning should be adapted to facilitate migra- will affect the life cycles of both the control tion. More generally, protection and rehabilita- agentss and the weeds. The development of tion of existing mangrove forests are important biological control agents as a weed-control means of facilitating their capacity to manage option in Vietnam would need to recognize stress, maintain habitat and, if necessary, to the large variation in climate that already migrate. These actions should be underpinned by exists and how this might change. research and data collection that (a) track changes in salinity and hydrology, (b) monitor sediment■■ Good information—as with pests and diseases, elevation, and (c) develop an understanding of effective weed management when the climate responses of mangroves to sea level rise (McLeod is changing will involve the effective collection and Salm 2006).
  • 76. 54 S IX E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
  • 77. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 55Adaptation at the LocalLevel: Social AnalysisSocial Vulnerability to classification. The full result of the EACC’s workClimate Change on social issues in Vietnam can be consulted in the detailed sector report (McElwee et al. 2010).Social vulnerability relates primarily to how “access Several of those interviewed noted that studies onto resources” is distributed within and among com- climate change are often donor-driven, and thusmunities. While physical vulnerabilities may be are conducted in places where the donors aregeographically mapped with some precision, it is more interested. The Ministry of Labor, Invalidssocial vulnerabilities that often are much more dif- and Social Affairs (MoLISA) does maintain anficult to assess and to identify clearly because they official classification of “vulnerable” populationsdo not easily fit into definite geographic spaces. in general (but not specific to climate change),For example, natural events, such as heavy rains or for whom special safety net services are targeted.floods, are often compounded by poor local water These vulnerable peoples include invalids, elderlymanagement, such as inadequate pumps or release without relatives, orphans, and laborers with lim-of water from a reservoir. The same phenom- ited schooling (Poverty Task Force 2002). Theseenon, like floods, also may not consistently affect groups of people are identified regularly by statethe same production sectors, some of which may officials in local MoLISA departments and givenbe more sensitive to climate than others. Similarly, special priorities to social safety net programs likein some areas poor households may be the most health insurance cards and educational subsidiesvulnerable, while in other areas it is the better off, (MoLISA and UNDP 2004).who have more to lose financially in flood dam-age. These varying vulnerabilities make it very To these official indicators we can add a numberdifficult to put forth comprehensive national-level of other indicators of general vulnerability iden-plans, and indicate downscaled, community-level tified in livelihood assessments and participatoryassessments are likely to be most useful. In inter- poverty assessments over the past 15 years, includ-views with prominent scientists and policy makers ing women, children, ethnic minorities, the illiter-regarding whether Vietnam has a standard classifi- ate, those who suffer food shortages, those undercation for areas with different levels of vulnerability the poverty line, the disabled, families with manyto climate change and a system for prioritization, children, and those in remote areas (Poverty Taskour interviewees have confirmed there is no such Force 2002).
  • 78. 56 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G EThese indicators of social vulnerability come from that is vulnerable to climate events and be morea number of different studies. For example, in the exposed to health hazards because of the occu-1990s there were a number of participatory poverty pations available to them (Few and Pham 2010).assessments conducted by NGOs with assistance Given that households in recent surveys (such asfrom the World Bank, and many of these studies Oxfam 2008 and World Bank 2009) already citedlooked carefully at the conditions of rural poverty weather as one of their primary vulnerability and(World Bank 1999). More recently there have been risk factors, the rise in extreme weather events thatseveral studies that tried to look specifically at the is likely in the next 50 years should be a source ofissue of climate change and vulnerability in Viet- great concern. Recent successes in poverty reduc-nam. Work led by the University of East Anglia, tion in Vietnam have the potential to be under-particularly Neil Adger (1999a, 1999b, 2000, 2003) mined by the effects of climate change.and Adger et al. (2002) has emphasized factors ofpoverty and dependence on livelihoods to climate- Poverty in Vietnam has been the subject of manysensitive economic activities (particularly farming recent in-depth analyses. Poverty is measured by aand fishing) as a proxy for household sensitivity to standard government measure; according to Deci-climate change. Adger has also emphasized the sion 170/2005/QĐ-TTg, poor households in ruralstrong role of institutional change, such as the ero- areas have a monthly income per person of belowsion of collective support for mangrove planting 200,000 VNĐ and below 260,000 VNĐ for urbanand dike repairs that were a part of the Doi Moi areas. Areas with households below this standard areprocess. Some recent climate change and vulner- considered poor. There has been a strong reductionability reports based on new field data were done in overall poverty in Vietnam in the past 20 years,by NGOs (i.e. Kyoto University and Oxfam 2007; with the fraction of households living below the pov-Oxfam 2008). erty line at less than 15 percent in 2006, compared to over 58 percent in 1993 (World Bank 2008). PovertyPoverty. Poverty relates to vulnerability and is now regionally concentrated in mostly rural andthe sensitivity of livelihoods to risks because it ethnic minority-dominated areas (Figure 12). Forstructures access to entitlements and resources. example, while only 14 percent of the total popula-For example, those who are poor may live far- tion, ethnic minorities currently account for 44 per-ther away from good quality natural resources, cent of the poor and 59 percent of the food-hungryhave little ability to absorb risk, and have trouble (World Bank 2009). The main vulnerable regionsrecovering once a risk happens (DFID 2004). for poverty include the Northern Mountains, theThe poor tend to have less diversity of income Central Highlands, and the North-Central Coast,sources, and less access to credit to fill in income which remain poorer than the rest of the country ingaps, which likely increases their risk of disaster terms of percentages of people in poverty. In termswhen one of their sources is strongly affected by of total numbers of poor, however, the Red Riverclimate. Vulnerability to shocks, whether they be Delta and Mekong Delta are important becauseclimate or otherwise (such as health or unemploy- of their overall large populations and consequentlyment shocks), has long been identified as one of large absolute numbers of poor people.the major challenges for the poor in Vietnam(Poverty Task Force 2002). While the poor are not Main vulnerable areas. In terms of percentages of thenecessarily the only people impacted by climate population, mountainous areas with ethnic minor-risks, they tend to have less resilience, such as less ities are most vulnerable (Northern Mountainsaccess to insurance, and less ability to rebuild or and Central Highlands). But in absolute numbersmove away from affected areas. They are more of poor, the Red River Delta and Mekong Deltalikely to live in shoddy or substandard housing remain significant as well. Furthermore, areas
  • 79. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 57with substandard housing (Mekong Delta) and Figure 12 Poverty Map of Vietnam at District Levelfew household assets are also likely to be at risk.Climate-sensitive resource dependency.When households’ livelihoods depend on a smallnumber of sources of income without muchdiversification, and when those income sourcesare in fields that are highly climate dependent,like agriculture and fishing, households can besaid to have climate-sensitive resource depen-dence (Adger 1999a). Agriculture and fishingmake up significant parts of the overall economyof Vietnam, a topic explored in more detail inthe Vietnam EACC studies for these sectors.Rice is by far the largest single crop, account-ing for 43 percent of gross agriculture producedin 2007. Other significant export crops includetea, coffee, rubber, peanut, cashew nuts, andblack pepper, while corn, sweet potato, cassava,vegetables, beans, and fruits are for local con-sumption (Nguyen Lanh 2009). While irriga-tion is widespread in the rice sector in particular,there are still significant portions of the countryin which rainfed rice dominates, particularly inareas outside the two main deltas. Clearly thechanges in precipitation predicted under climatechange have the potential to significantly affectcrop yields, as the sectoral report on agriculturefor the EACC has made clear.Fishing is also highly climate dependent. Stormscan bring salinity into aquaculture areas and dam-age the health of livestock. For small farmers inparticular, it can be difficult to recover from climate The livestock sector is particularly important toevents. One likely consequence of climate change, many poor households, who count buffalos andfor example, is consolidation of shrimp farms into pigs among their most important assets (Worldlarger holdings as smallholders are squeezed out Bank 1999). When these assets are lost to diseaseand forced to sell their lands to cover debts (Adger, or climate events, this can be one of the most sig-Kelly et al. 2002). Overall, about half a million nificant sectors causing a decline in householdpeople in Vietnam get most of their income from livelihoods (Poverty Task Force 2002).fishing, and another 2 million have fishing-relatedincome in enterprises such as processing. The The forestry sector is a relatively small sector ofvalue of fishery exports has increased dramatically the economy, and provides only small amounts ofin recent years as well, as the aquaculture sectoral income in most regions (Table 32). It can, how-note for the EACC study explains. ever, be an important informal safety net sector
  • 80. 58 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 32 Dependency on Different Income Streams by Region % HH involved % HH involved % HH in % HH in % HH in Region in agriculture in fishing forestry industry services Other All of Vietnam 66.5 4.4 0.2 10.2 14.9 3.8 North East 83.5 0.8 0.5 3.7 9.5 2.0 North West 91.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 6.9 4.0 Red River Delta 58.2 1.8 0.0 16.5 17.0 3.0 North Central 72.5 3.6 0.3 6.0 11.8 5.8 Coast South Central 61.5 7.3 0.3 10.9 15.2 1.0 Coast Central Highlands 88.7 0.1 0.1 2.1 8.1 0.9 South East 51.3 2.8 0.2 19.5 23.4 2.7 Mekong Delta 61.8 11.0 0.2 8.4 16.6 1.8 Source: 2006 Rural, Agricultural and Fisheries Censusand provide income when other sectors like agri- poor, as noted earlier. But ethnic minorities faceculture fail (Sunderlin and Huynh 2005; McEl- specific factors of vulnerability that other rural orwee 2008). Climate damage to forests, such as poor areas might not.dry weather leading to forest fires, can thus be anadditional stressor to poor households. Compared to the Vietnamese majority (known as Kinh), minorities continue to be more dependentMain vulnerable areas. Provinces with a large number on staple goods and traditional agriculture, and areof households dependent on rainfed agriculture less diversified. They report much lower rates of(North-East, North-West, North and South-Cen- agricultural investment, with resulting lower pro-tral Coasts, Central Highlands) and households ductivity (World Bank 2009). Access to credit andwith little to no diversification of income sources financial services is very uneven in minority areas.(North-West, North-East, Central Highlands) are Kinh report more loans and larger bank loanslikely the most vulnerable. Provinces with high than minorities on average, while ethnic minori-numbers of fishing-related businesses are also ties report a higher need for credit (Hoang Congsensitive (Mekong Delta, Central Coast). Dung et al. 2006). Minorities also face many bar- riers in adaptive capacity as well, with the majorEthnic minorities. Vietnam has 54 official factor in this area being much lower levels of edu-ethnic groups. The largest minority group, the cation. Dropout rates remain significantly higherTay, has nearly 1.5 million members, while the for minorities, resulting in higher rates of illiteracysmallest, the O Du, has barely 300. These ethnic and lack of language fluency in Vietnamese, whichminority groups share some things in common; hinders minorities’ ability to interact with others75 percent of Vietnam’s minority populations and take advantage of outside resources (Worldlive in two regions, the Northern Mountains and Bank 2009). All of these factors above combinedCentral Highlands, and most minorities remain likely make ethnic minorities especially vulnerablerural residents. This means that minorities are to climate change. Table 33 indicates the regionspotentially more sensitive to climate events by in which minorities make up sizable percentagesvirtue of being more likely to be farmers and to of the overall population, namely the Northernlive in rural areas. They are also more likely to be Mountains and Central Highlands.
  • 81. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 59The Mekong Delta, which has a relatively low Table 33 Regional Distribution ofpercentage of minorities, does have a particularly Minority Populationsvulnerable group, the Khmer, who have experi- % rural HH Region who are minoritiesenced high rates of landlessness and dependency All of Vietnam 15on wage labor as their main sources of income North-East 44in recent years (Le Ngoc Thanh et al. 2006). Thenumber of Khmer households who are landless is North-West 86estimated to be more than 25 percent, with sur- Red River Delta >1veys revealing that more than 75 percent of poor North-Central Coast 11.3households were landless. Khmer landlessness South-Central Coast 7was not usually due to shrimp farm debt, which is Central Highlands 39a major reason for landlessness among the Kinh South-East 7.5in the same area. Rather, Khmer loss of land Mekong Delta 7.5seems to relate primarily to failures in rice and Source: 2006 Rural, Agricultural and Fisheries Census.crop cultivation. As a result of landlessness, over80 percent of the incomes of poor Khmer house-holds surveyed in a 2006 report came from wagelabor (Le Ngoc Thanh et al. 2006). Many people climate change would also be encountered. Forgo to work for agricultural farms in neighboring example, increases in domestic violence haveprovinces, and Khmer households from the same been widely reported after climate disasters suchvillage often form a roving band of migrant agri- as hurricanes (Fordham 1998; Cupples 2007).cultural labor. This migration pattern has con- Gender inequality also likely limits the possibletributed to strong vulnerability among Khmer, as range of responses for adaptation by womenthese labor seekers have become dependent on (Lambrou and Piana 2006). For example, changesdistant and often unstable income. A number of in the physical environment as a result of climateproblems are also associated with migrant work- change may increase women’s workload as theirers, including less access to government services access to natural resources may decline (Nelson etand more vulnerability to poverty and social evils al. 2002). Families may break up as the women or(Le Ngoc Thanh et al. 2006). the men need to migrate . They may have to take up low-wage labor if agriculture becomes unsuit-Main vulnerable areas. The regions where minori- able to their local areas (Nelson et al. 2002).ties dominate, the Northern Mountains and Cen-tral Highlands, are likely to be most sensitive. In Vietnam, gender analysis gives us an under-Areas with smaller, less prosperous, minorities are standing of how the identities of women and menalso likely more heavily affected (North-Central determine different vulnerabilities and capaci-Coast, South-Central Coast, as well as the North- ties to deal with climate change (UNDP 2009). Aern Mountains and Central Highlands). And the UNDP desk study on gender and climate changeKhmer minority group in the Mekong Delta is a in Vietnam notes that women face challenges fromvulnerable population in particular, due to very climate change in three areas: the productive,high rates of landlessness not seen in other minor- reproductive, and community spheres. In terms ofity populations. production, agriculture has been increasingly fem- inized; 62 percent of women versus 52 percent ofWomen and children. It is clear that gender men are engaged in agricultural production. Thusaffects vulnerability to “natural” disasters; thus, it is likely that more women face risks from climateit is to be expected that similar vulnerability to impacts to the agricultural sector. Climate change
  • 82. 60 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 34 Statistics on Female Status by Region Maternal mortality by region Gender gap in male/ % female govt workers Region (per 100,000 live births)1 female literacy rates2 at commune level3 North-East 411 5.3 3.5 North-West (combined w/ above) 15.2 2.2 Red River Delta 46 4.3 2.7 North-Central Coast 162 5.9 2.6 South-Central Coast 199 5.1 4.0 Central Highlands 178 6.9 5.0 South-East 45 3.1 10.0 Mekong Delta 143 6.6 4.8 Sources: (1) Demographic and Health Survey 2002 in ADB 2005; (2) 2004 Vietnam Household Living Standing Survey (VHLSS) in ADB 2005; (3) 2006 Rural, Agricultural and Fisheries Survey.also adds to water insecurity, which increases the a snapshot of female vulnerabilities acrosswork level of women as they are more likely to be regions in Vietnam.the ones in a household responsible for water col-lection (Le Cong Thanh 2008). Women are also So far no sex-disaggregated data is available onmuch less likely to have their name on land tenure injury or death due to climate events in Vietnam,titles, which can increase their insecurity in the but anecdotal evidence suggests poor women arecase of divorce or widowhood and contestation more likely to become direct victims as they placeover land rights. family members’ safety first. They are also often not warned in climate alarms, which go to headsFor those in other economic sectors outside of households or men. More women tend to dieof agriculture, there is still vulnerability. More in floods than men because they “have not beenwomen than men work in household-scale small given the same encouragement as men and boysenterprises, as opposed to formal employment, to learn to swim. All sorts of social customs andand these households enterprises are often worst behavior restrictions made it more difficult forhit and least able to recover as a result of disas- them to do so” (Oxfam 2008).ters. Female-headed households (FHH) havetheir own special needs. In the 1990s, nearly Women are also less likely to engage in community25 percent of all rural households were female- activities to increase adaptive capacity. It has beenheaded, and 75 percent of all spouse-absent estimated that female participation in local politicsfemale-headed households in the whole country is less than 20 percent of official positions at localwere living in rural areas (Desai 1995). While a People’s Councils, and sometimes much lower (Lelarge part of the reason for a high percentage of Cong Thanh 2008). Women’s involvement in localFHH in the past was due to excess male mortal- Committees for Flood and Storm Control is oftenity as a result of the wars in Vietnam, younger limited to asking them to be in charge of child-careFHH tend to be caused by migrant male labor or food distribution and sweeping and clean up, andor divorce/separation. Women migrants can be they are not encouraged to take a more active rolevulnerable too, as they may be alone with little in overall decision making (UNDP 2008). Childrenprotection without social connections, as well as can also be strongly vulnerable to weather events,usually earning less than men. Table 34 provides especially events like increased flooding. Evidence
  • 83. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 61from interviews of people affected by floods after Highlands saw large amounts of in-migrants intyphoons and storms in the Mekong Delta noted the 1990s and 2000s, despite being a rural des-that there were many people who “had died in rel- tination, due to high world prices for coffee andatively calm waters simply because they could not other cash crops, and from government encour-swim” (Oxfam 2008), and of this number, child agement to settle these areas (Winkels 2008). Thisdrownings were the largest number. More than influx of migrants likely increased the vulnerabil-half of households interviewed in a study of health ity of local residents (mostly minorities) as theyand climate in the Mekong Delta “expressed fear saw their land and natural resources availabilityfor children’s safety during the flood months when decline dramatically, while the migrants them-water levels are high and currents may be strong” selves have been very vulnerable to climate- and(Few and Phan 2010). Climate events can also indi- trade-related shocks in the coffee sector in therectly harm children, as they can cause children to past 15 years (World Bank 2009).drop out of school (either due to physical closure ofschools due to damage, or money not being avail- Migration can be both a cause and consequenceable after climate events for school fees), which will of climate vulnerability. There is evidence thatkeep them from long-term advancement (Phong natural disasters have been a strong motive forTran et al. 2008). migration. In a study conducted in the central provinces in early 2000, respondents in ThuaMain vulnerable areas. All regions/provinces have Thien-Hue stated that migration to the south hadsimilar vulnerability in terms of proportion of become even more popular in the wake of thethe population that is female, but more attention severe floods in November 1999 (ADRC 2003). Inneeds to be paid to FHH, ethnic minority women, the Mekong Delta, an assessment of migration asand migrant women in particular, who are more a consequence of climate change found floods tovulnerable. Children are especially vulnerable in be a strong pushing factor for some households tocoastal and riverine areas where children have leave for other areas (Dun 2009). Later this cen-to cross waterways to go to school and work, or tury, Ho Chi Minh City may face the prospect ofwhere schools are vulnerable to submersion in large numbers of new migrants in the form offloods (primarily Mekong Delta, Central Coast, climate refugees leaving the Mekong Delta; esti-and Red River Delta). mates range as high as 5 million people who may be displaced (Carew-Reid 2008).Migration. Vietnam has had strong patterns ofmigration since rules relaxing household regis- Additionally, those who have migrated to a newtration went into effect in the 1990s. Since then, area for non-climate reasons (i.e. to get a job)migration from rural to urban areas has accounted may also be more vulnerable to climate events.for the majority of the migration experienced. For example, migrants in Vietnam are requiredThere are strong regional patterns of migration to have some documentation under the nationalin Vietnam, with most areas sending migrants, household registration system (ho khau) in order toand only two areas (the Central Highlands and access social services, but there are also numerousSouth-East) absorbing most in-migration. Large people who never register and remain undocu-numbers of urban migrants can be found in the mented migrants (Pincus and Sender 2008).largest cities of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh city, Undocumented migrants and those without per-and in the South-East region, which is home to manent status have no rights to public safety neta large number of industrial zones where people services, and often are exploited for low wages inhave moved for work in agro-processing, textiles, employment or let go if ill or injured, and theyand other industries. In addition, the Central have little recourse due to their undocumented
  • 84. 62 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Estatus (Dang Nguyen Anh 2005). Twenty-nine may be lower in urban than rural areas, the totalpercent of the Ho Chi Minh City population is affected numbers will likely be higher in urbanestimated to be registered temporary migrants, areas. For example, the projected population ofand migrants have tended to group in some par- Ho Chi Minh City is 10 million by 2020. With aticular districts (Go Vap, Tan Binh, Binh Thanh, current poverty rate of 6.6 percent of urban resi-and District 12), where they often make up a dents, that is a large number of absolute poor.majority of the ward population in some places(Le Van Thanh 2002), potentially making these The built environment of cities can mean moredistricts sites of particular social vulnerability. exposure to climate hazards; that is, lots of con- crete with poor drainage can lead to regular flood-Another consequence of migration rates are that ing. In Ho Chi Minh City, for example, a greatmany sending areas are losing their youngest deal of building has taken place in what used to beworkers, and this can limit the sending commu- wetlands south of the city, which affects the abil-nity’s capacity to respond to climate events. With- ity of surrounding lands to drain. This has beenout young people it is difficult to form youth labor pointed to as a reason behind increased floodinggroups to support the work on shoring up dikes, in the city (Bolay et al. 1997). Urban residents alsofor example. Some villages in the Red River Delta may have more constraints to individual adapta-have seen so many of their young people leave tion than rural residents. For example, urbanto work elsewhere that there is almost no one left residents may find it hard to move to a new areaunder age 50, and without strong laborers, dike through migration due to higher investments inmaintenance and protection of houses is very dif- housing stock than rural farmers with lower qual-ficult during severe weather events. ity or temporary housing. These urban house- holds may also have less social capital if they haveMain vulnerable populations. Places with high levels of migrated and have no relatives or friends in theirin-migrants are vulnerable. Ho Chi Minh City has new city, or have low participation in communitythe largest absolute number, while other smaller and social activity because of lack of legal resi-cities, particularly in the Mekong Delta, have rising dence permits. “Unofficial” work activity is a largenumbers as well (for example, Can Tho city). portion of the employment of urban residents in Vietnam; for example, it is estimated that aboutUrban households. While many studies have 45 percent of the population in Ho Chi Minhpointed out the strong vulnerability of rural pop- City have some form of unofficial work, includ-ulations to climate change, an increase in urban- ing small business and services such as motorbikespecific studies shows clearly that cities face major taxis, mobile food vendors, and so on. The urbanvulnerabilities themselves, often affecting very poor also often take what are known as 3D jobs—large numbers of people (De Sherbinin et al. dirty, difficult, and dangerous—such as porter-2007). Although urban areas are often assumed to ing, sewage cleaning, and pedicab driving. Thesebe less vulnerable to impacts due to higher rates occupations can have low security of employmentof development, there are many pockets of poor, and low incomes, and be especially vulnerable tooften migrants or unregistered populations in disruptions from events such as flooding.major urban centers of Vietnam who will be justas vulnerable, if not more so, than rural farming Main vulnerable populations. Ho Chi Minh City haspopulations outside of urban areas. Furthermore, the largest number of urban households likely toin terms of overall numbers of affected peoples, be at risk, due to high exposure of the city to SLRthe population density of urban areas means that and other climate events, as well as large numberswhile the overall percentage of affected people of migrant households.
  • 85. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 63Education. Levels of education can play a role Table 35 Literacy andin climate change sensitivity, because they can Education Rates, 2001reflect the inability to read and receive climate % labor % labor population population withwarnings, as well as information in post-climate who is no completed Region illiterate education leveldisaster situations about recovery policies. Edu-cation can also affect people’s ability to make All of Vietnam 3.8 16.7proactive adaptation decisions. Surveys in Thua North-East 7.4 14.8Thien Hue, for example, found that those with North-West 23.5 22.5a high school education were much more likely Red River Delta 0.7 6.4to think flood damage was a result of a combi- North-Central Coast 2.3 10.4nation of social vulnerability and natural factors, South-Central Coast 3.0 18.9while those with less schooling were more likely Central Highlands 5.6 17.4to ascribe flood damage to “fate” or an “act ofGod” against which they had little control (Phong South-East 2.0 15.6Tran et al. 2008). Higher levels of education can Mekong Delta 4.4 30.7also increase the ability to recover after climate Source: 2005 data from GSOevents through better access to information andsources of support. Overall rates of literacy andeducation are shown in Table 35, with high rates of which may be connected to changes in cli-of lack of formal education even in richer regions mate. These include increases in the incidencelike the Mekong Delta. of respiratory disease, rheumatism , hepatitis B, diphtheria, cholera, typhoid, plague, and malariaMain vulnerable populations. The illiterate and house- (Hoang Xuan Huy and Le Van Chinh 2007). Aholds in which no one speaks/reads Vietnamese warmer climate in terms of temperature increasefluently; these are more likely to be ethnic minor- will likely increase health risks to the elderly andity households concentrated in the Central High- those already suffering from some diseases. Tem-lands and Northern Mountains. perature changes may also increase the breeding grounds for disease carrying vectors.Illness, health, and sanitation. Having ill fam-ily members is one of the main risks facing poor Existing conditions regarding sanitation and accesshouseholds in Vietnam (Poverty Task Force 2002), to clean water are not ideal, and it is likely thatand climate change can bring health risks in many climate change will impact access to water, givenforms. There are the direct health problems that the changes that are predicted. Table 36 indicatescan be caused by floods and storms, such as inju- the areas of Vietnam that are already dependentries from falling debris, as well as the sanitation on rainfall and surface water, and those who haveaftermath of climate events. Diarrheal diseases are more reliable supplies of well, piped, or purchaseda major concern after flood events, with stagnant water. The Mekong Delta is particularly vulnerableand non-potable water spreading illness. Children to diseases spread through surface water sources,and those already ill are particularly at risk. There and the Red River Delta is vulnerable to changesare also “elevated risk of skin diseases and conjunc- in rainfall, given the large number of householdstivitis, especially among children who might play in who rely on rainfall for their water supplies.the polluted water” (Few and Pham 2010). Main vulnerable populations. People with existing ill-According to the Ministry of Health, there are nesses that can be exacerbated; children; areasa number of diseases that are on the rise, some with poor sanitation.
  • 86. 64 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 36 Household Access to Water, 2005 (% of households who get most of their water from different sources) Region Piped water Purchase Rain Well Surface/ Spring All of Vietnam 8.2 0.3 15.0 61.5 8.3 North-East 3.4 0.1 3.0 70.4 0.6 North-West 2.0 0.1 1.1 41.2 5.1 Red River Delta 5.5 0.1 42.4 51.5 0.4 North-Central Coast 5.3 0.3 8.1 79.6 0.1 South-Central Coast 4.5 0.3 0.2 89.8 0.3 Central Highlands 1.8 0.13 0.5 84.7 1.6 South-East 10 1.9 1.1 84.4 1.4 Mekong Delta 19 .3 13.3 32.2 35 Source: 2006 Rural, Agricultural and Fisheries survey.Indicators of adaptive capacity. Adaptive peak seasons of rice cultivation, particularly dur-capacity, as noted earlier, relates to the ability of ing transplanting and harvesting. Overall, moreinstitutions or people to modify or change char- than 85 percent of the households in one surveyacteristics or behavior so as to cope better with reported regular labor exchanges, with the aver-existing or anticipated external stresses from cli- age number of days varying from a minimum ofmate. There are a number of indicators of this five to more than twenty days per season (McEl-capacity that have been pointed out in the litera- wee 2007). People also can ask for help from theirture; here we focus on social capital and collective friends from other communes or districts; relativesaction, institutional adaptations, and government are the first line of defense for households thatsafety nets. Unlike the indicators for exposure and have been affected by storms. They seek sheltersensitivity that we outlined in the above sections, in relatives’ houses, rely on relatives to help themwhich can be assessed with existing data sources clean up afterwards, and to provide loans if finan-by region, these adaptive capacity indicators are cial assistance is needed.very hard to find quantitative or qualitative assess-ments by region, and are much more usefully There is a history of use of this informal systemassessed at levels such as districts or communes. to play a role in helping households cope/adapt with climate-related events, such as floods, whichSocial capital and collective action is one such indica- could be a good buffer and source of adaptivetor. In modern Vietnam, the individual family capacity for the future. This “social capital” forhousehold is the prime kin unit, but extended climate adaptation can be partly seen through thekin relations remain one of the strongest mark- informal financial supporting activities of wom-ers of identity, and relatives are usually the first en’s groups, for example (Miller 2006). Particu-people to be called on in cases of need. Kinship larly in the Mekong Delta, women often form intonetworks are well-known as being particularly small groups to provide rotating credit, in whichimportant for gaining access to information (Lan members contribute a specific amount of moneyAnh Hoang et al. 2006). They are also important every month to lend one member. The amountin mutual assistance, such as in sharing work in will be circulated among members monthly. Thisagricultural tasks. Reciprocal help is essential at kind of practice can be among women within a
  • 87. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 65village or among brothers and sisters in families have been good examples of cooperatives actingor clans. The goal is to understand these informal after floods in Thua Thien Hue in 2000 to bridgeinstitutions better, and help the formal system to a gap between the time the flooding occurred andsupport and encourage these informal assistance the availability of formal support credits for themechanisms (Adger 2003). next crop by cooperatives buying inputs on credit for delivery to farmers with payment due after theInstitutional capacity thus has a role to play. Recent subsequent harvest (ADRC 2003).research shows clearly that institutions have alarge role to play in understanding where vulner- One problem for climate change planning is theability to climate change might be high, and how wide disparity between regions in terms of theiradaptation can happen (Agrawal 2008) Vietnam inputs to the central budget and what they receivehas a very hierarchical government structure, with in return, which affects the ability of localitiesgovernment offices organized vertically from cen- to deal with climate adaptation. The wealthiesttral to provincial to district to commune levels, the regions (the Red River Delta, the South Centrallowest level of state administration in Vietnam, Coast, and the South East, which includes Howith more than 10,000 communes total in the Chi Minh City) transfer much more to the cen-country. For example, although there may be a tral budget than they receive in return in terms ofprovincial department of a central ministry—for per capita budget support. Therefore, wealthierexample, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural regions are not necessarily better equipped to dealDevelopment (MARD) has provincial offices with climate impacts, as so much of their wealthknown as Departments of Agriculture and Rural is transferred to other regions, and the poorerDevelopment (DARDs)—these departments are regions are dependent on these central transfers,answerable both to the People’s Committee of which limits their ability to put into place flexiblethe province (lateral reporting responsibility) as local adaptation measures.well as to the central ministry (vertical reportingresponsibility). This system, while useful for con- Social safety nets can also play a role in adaptiveveying information in a clear hierarchy from top capacity. The removal of much of the formerto bottom, also results in a lot of overlap between socialist safety nets during the Doi Moi process hasdepartments at each level, and unclear chains of left more households paying for public servicescommand between vertical and horizontal lev- out of pocket. Many formerly state services areels. This means that new approaches and new now funded through additional fees and contri-actions, such as those needed to deal with new butions paid by individual citizens and are beingissues like climate change, will likely only slowly provided by state, parastatal, and private entitiesbe incorporated into the existing institutional sys- (such as agricultural inputs, now sold from pri-tem. There are also increasing numbers of new vate agribusinesses competing with state-ownedorganizations that may play roles in local areas fertilizer factories). By the end of the 1990s, forvis-à-vis climate adaptation. These include fishing example, Vietnamese had to pay out of pocketand farming unions, agricultural cooperatives, for most social services; these expendituresand farmers’ informal working groups. These accounted for about 70 percent of the country’sgroups can leverage support for their members in education expenditures and 80 percent of healthtimes of shocks and high risks. For example, many expenditures, whereas 20 years ago these wouldagriculture cooperatives have contracts with com- have all been provided in exchange for work inmercial suppliers of agricultural inputs, which collective enterprises or agricultural farms. For anthe cooperative delivers to the individual farmer individual household, the fees for social servicesmembers on credit to be paid after harvest. There have imposed an increasing burden on household
  • 88. 66 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Eincomes, and these burdens have fallen especially of the adaptive capacity of the local population,hard on the poor (Evans et al. 2007). field research was undertaken in the Northern Mountains, the Central Coastal region, the Cen-While in theory, the existing state safety net pro- tral Highlands, and the Mekong Delta (Figuregrams (primarily social security payments, disabil- 13). The focus of local field research was to vali-ity payments, health insurance, education subsidies, date the livelihood profiles generated from the lit-and poverty alleviation programs) have the poten- erature review, to draw a more detailed picturetial to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate of the types of people who are likely to be mostshocks, in fact, there is low spending on social ser- vulnerable to future climate change, and howvices relative to needs (Van De Walle 2004). Large adaptation practices engaged in during past cli-numbers of eligible people simply do not receive mate events might shed light on future adaptationsafety net coverage. Furthermore, social benefits choices and pathways, with a particular emphasisare often tied to one’s location; undocumented on how social vulnerability might be reduced andmigrants do not have access to social safety net future adaptive capacity built up. The tools for theservices if they lack household registration cards. local research included standard tools for vulner-The provincial disparities in expenditures from the ability and adaptation assessment methodologies:National Target Programs on Hunger Alleviation analysis of past events, analysis of root causes,and Poverty Reduction are also of concern. While risk mapping, and social assessments. These werethe greatest expenditures have been made largely approached through stakeholder consultationsin the poorest areas, there is significant unevenness with key informants, semi-structured householdin how much actually goes to each poor person. interviews, and focus groups.Main indicators of adaptive capacity. There are many The questions guiding the field researchpossible indicators of adaptive capacity that could included:be used in Vietnam, such as the number of socialties between households; existence of active loan ■■ What are the effects of physical and socialand support networks in villages; number of infor- vulnerabilities at different scales, from local tomal community-based organizations in localities; national?number of informal work groups or productioncooperatives; districts and localities with more ■■ How are the most vulnerable households inbudget flexibility; training and support for key the studied local communities adapting? Aregovernment personnel in capacity for adaptation; these adaptation strategies different from less-presence of formal climate adaptation plans or vulnerable households?strategies at local levels; experience with past cli-mate disaster events; and communes and districts ■■ Do adaptation strategies in different environ-with high credit and lending rates. ments to different hazards vary? ■■ How do different types of institutions (public,Adaptation to Climate civic and private) either help or hinder adapta-Change at the Local Level: tion actions taken by individual households?A Social Analysis ■■ What different types of actions (behavioral, technical, financial, and otherwise) are under-In order to better understand how adaptation may taken by different types of households (poor,take place at the local as well as the determinants well-off, female-headed, etc)?
  • 89. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 67Indicators of local vulnerability Figure 13 Survey LocationKon Tum: Hunger and poverty rates were key indi-cators of vulnerability in Kon Tum. The poorin Dien Binh commune account for 62 percent,while it is 40 percent in Dak Tram. The hungerrate is the same for the two communes, account-ing for 10 percent, and the situation has becomeworse due to the impacts of Typhoon Ketsanain 2009. Poverty rates are closely linked to thefact that both areas are primarily ethnic minor-ity communities, with farmers who depend onnatural resources management for their liveli-hoods. Other sources of vulnerability were theelderly, women, children, and those with loweducation (also linked to poverty). The extremenature of poverty can be seen in a wealth rank-ing done by members of Dien Bien commune,where even households considered to be “aver-age” in income often suffered food shortages 2months out of the year.Quang Nam. An Thang is located in a coastalarea, and Bai Huong is located in an island,therefore the exposure level to storms of theseareas is very high. The changes in degrees ofstorm, direction, and seasonality in these com- children, and the sick people are those who aremunities have created difficulties in coping and vulnerable to extreme weather events. They areadapting, and mean that physical exposure was those who need support from government orthe primary indicator of vulnerability. In Hoi their children/parents, relatives, and neighbors.An City’s An Thang area, physical location near In extreme events, they totally depend on thosethe Thu Bon River in certain low-lying streets support sources.was the primary source of vulnerability. In BaiHuong on Cu Lao Cham island, besides storms, Ha Giang. Group discussions and household inter-local people also suffered high waves that made views revealed that different types of climate-change-water overflow into their houses. When it rains induced events have affected different groups ofheavily, the water flow from the highlands toward people, but the common denominator was thatthe sea meets the water flowing up from the sea vulnerability primarily related to health risks of cli-in surges. Physical vulnerability also often goes mate impacts. For example, cold spells have strongalong with poverty, as the poor and near-poor impacts on the elderly and children as they get sickusually own more unstable houses with less easily with lots of diseases of the respiratory system,value. Once storms or floods occur, they are and suffering from lack of warm clothes spreadsthe most affected since they have trouble recov- cold and flu among all the poor villagers. Childrenering from the loss and often face bankruptcy. quit school and have to sit around the fire at home toThe field discussions also revealed that the aged, keep warm. Extended cold spells have bad impacts
  • 90. 68 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Eon livestock, causing great loss to better-off house- Key conclusions from fieldwork. Overall,holds that have big herds of buffaloes. in the patterns of vulnerability and responses to existing climate events by surveyed house-Water stress is also related to health issues, as in holds and communities, there is not yet a strongrecently years drought has affected the spring rice understanding of the long-term nature of climateand corn crops, as well as causing a shortage of change. As may be expected in poor communitiesdrinking water for people living in higher loca- with limited information pertaining to and under-tions. The lack of water causes diseases among standing of climate change issues, most activitieswomen; it is very difficult for mothers who just have been geared toward short-term coping ingave birth. In the morning, villagers have to stand the face of climate events like floods or storms,in line to get water (each household can only not making plans for long-term adaptation.have 1 can of 2 liters) for household use. Thus,households that lack labor can’t get water. With- Vulnerabilities. In all field sites the poor were identi-out water, their food is not washed, causing dis- fied as especially vulnerable. In Hoi An and Caneases to the intestinal system. The commune had Tho towns, the poor had unstable employmenta record number of cases of diarrhea 2 years ago (mostly wage labor), which could be lost if exces-due to lack of water. Fire also easily burns down sive flooding and storms occurred. In Kon Tumhouses during the dry season without water, and and Ha Giang, poor households were usuallytraditional houses with thatched roofs and houses- subsistence farmers, and were less likely to haveon-stilts are easily exposed to fire. stored foods or savings to rely on during periods of famine. In Bac Lieu, the poor were formerFlash floods are detrimental to those who live farmers who had taken out large debts or whonear streams and have fields near streams. Quan had lost their land, and who were dependent onBa has nearly 20 percent of its households living wage labor opportunities, which might declinenear and along streams and these suffer from flash during climate events.floods yearly. Tornados often cause damage tothose who have non-permanent houses or houses Those dependent on natural resource occupationsthat are located along roads. were also identified as vulnerable. In the Cu Lao Cham islands, fisher families are directly vulnera-Bac Lieu. The vulnerable populations in the ble to storms, especially if they are out away fromMekong Delta were primarily those households shore in boats and have no warning of impend-with livelihoods most dependent on natural ing danger. They are also vulnerable as they lackresources: shrimp farmers, fishers, or rice farmers. alternatives to fishing: there are no agriculturalLivelihoods of people are particularly vulnerable opportunities on their island and no other jobs.to changes in surface water for shrimp farming, In Kon Tum, most agriculture was subsistence-livestock diseases, and sudden weather changes. oriented and highly vulnerable to weather. In the wake of Typhoon Ketsana in September 2009,Can Tho. Poverty is the main measure of vulner- many of the residents’ fields were covered withability among surveyed households in Can Tho. sand that had been blown in by the storm, andExtreme temperatures (hotter weather), and river food production had decreased by about 50 per-floods (house flooded during extreme spring tide cent compared with last year. In Ha Giang, anby river water mixed with wastewater from drain- extended drought for 8 months had resulted inage system) are the main risks for households in only about 20 percent of rice being irrigated thisAn Lac ward, who make their living primarily year, and there were expected drops of at leastfrom wage labor. half in terms of production. Overall, losses due
  • 91. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 69to climate events were strongest in climate-depen- like coffee, coffee price drops in the early 2000sdent sources of household income, such as agri- strongly affected other provinces in the Centralculture, livestock, and aquaculture. Even urban Highlands and led to high rates of indebtednessbusinesses can be climate dependent; in Hoi An, among some minorities who could not weatherbusinesses related to tourism were highly nega- the price drops. Although Kon Tum was lesstively affected by climate events. affected because of lower rates of coffee planting, the large-scale moves in the past 10 years towardOther vulnerable groups identified in local areas rubber production may be vulnerable to the sameincluded: forces if rubber prices decline or Chinese invest- ment (which has driven much of the change) dries■■ Ethnic minorities were also considered vulner- up in the future. Vulnerabilities were also noted able, particularly in Kon Tum and Ha Giang. in some sites that were driven by forces out of Many minorities lived in more remote areas the local areas’ control, such as a decline in water and thus were harder to reach with immediate volume in Ha Giang and the Mekong Delta. weather storm warnings, but also longer term information planning is hampered. Adaptation options. So far, households’ adaptation options aimed at managing climate risk have been■■ Senior citizens, who lacked mobility to avoid sud- identified: listening to weather forecasts, build- den or disastrous weather events in Kon Tum, ing stronger houses, moving goods to upstairs and who were considered to be vulnerable to rooms, evacuating out of unsafe areas, etc. These cold spells and sickness in Ha Giang. are mostly short-term coping strategies. Some medium-term to long-term adaptation practices■■ Women, especially women who have recently were beginning to emerge in the most heavily given birth and are prone to illness as a result, subsistence-agriculture-oriented zones of Kon and who often cannot fetch clean water for Tum and Ha Giang, where farmers were experi- their families while they are confined at home menting with new crops, changing crop calen- with new babies, such as in Ha Giang, or dars, or using new varieties with shorter seasons women working multiple jobs to feed their or climate resistance. The most proactive adapta- families, such as in Quang Nam. tion appeared to be in Ha Giang in particular, with strong social capital and indigenous tradi-■■ Children, who are vulnerable to cold spells in tions. For example, the erratic cold spells that Ha Giang and kept home from school if it is have been experienced in recent years have led too cold. households to experiment with feeding different crops to animals (such as a local herb that is sup-■■ Those with low levels of education. posed to keep the animals’ stomach warm). The Ha Giang farmers were also proactive at storing■■ Those who lack sanitation and freshwater were seeds and experimenting with new crops like veg- also identified in Ha Giang as vulnerable, as etables or fodder grass that they hoped might be the recent drought has meant rationing of more hardy to weather changes. household water. The local authorities in the study sites have beenVulnerabilities to weather can be compounded primarily focused on building response capacity;by vulnerabilities to external forces. For exam- that is, having yearly evacuation plans, trainingple, as Vietnam has transitioned into the World people in disaster drills, providing weather dataTrade Organization and global markets for goods to local authorities, etc. There has also been
  • 92. 70 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Esome small-scale infrastructure development for have any idea about what they should be doingclimate risk. For example, in Hoi An the urban into the future to help them adapt better to cli-authorities have constructed a cement pavement mate change. Coping mechanisms combined withalong the bank of river to prevent erosion; in Cu more information and an institutional frameworkLao Cham, the Army has provided safe evacua- that facilitates longer term planning should leadtion shelters for some residents; and in Ha Giang, to better long-term adaptation, but this is notsmall hydropower projects to reserve water dur- yet in place in most areas of Vietnam. There areing the dry season have been constructed on small limited adaptation responses at either the house-streams. But local efforts have been hampered by hold or the government level that either address(a) the lack of a long- term perspective on plan- the drivers of overall vulnerability or ones thatning (i.e. one and five year plans being the most directly confront climate change processes. Theseused time horizon); (b) lack of a strong administra- are clearly areas that need more attention.tive authority dealing with climate change (i.e. noclimate office, lack of direct funding); (c) lack of There is some mobility in terms of short-terminformation (i.e. most climate work being done in working opportunities, especially among youngerresearch institutes in Hanoi, little capacity devel- members of households. From the household sur-opment or sharing of information elsewhere); veys and also from the group discussion, membersand (d) lack of integration of climate change into of communities report that there are not manyother sectoral plans (i.e. hydropower development young laborers in their communities. In Hoi An,without considering the forecasts for water flow it is because the number of old people are highmight be changed in 50 years). and the young people in their commune want to find a better job and the motive to leave is theCoping strategies versus adaptation. An individual or change of lifestyle. They leave the shops for theircommunities’ “coping capacity” has been defined parents to manage. In Cu Lao Cham, the youngas “the manner in which people and organizations also leave their village to find jobs in the mainland.use existing resources to achieve various beneficial But in Kon Tum, very few households wanted toends during and immediately after unusual, abnor- move permanently away from disaster areas or trymal and adverse conditions of a disaster event or to make their livelihoods outside of the area thatprocess” (World Bank 2010). Most actions seen in they were born in and have grown up in.the fieldsites were short-term coping actions, notlong-term adaptation. For example, most storage Diversification has been adopted by only a veryactivities were not aimed at storing of assets and small number of households, and primarily themoney over a longer term, although there was richer ones. Households in all areas were alreadysome strong collective contributions to pooling of using markets for agriculture and livestock pro-money for community damage. But most of this duce, and it is not clear how this can be expandedfinancing is aimed at short-term storage of assets beyond what is already being done to increasethrough an event of several days, not sharing of resilience to climate hazards.assets and money over a longer term. The poorand the hungry households in most communities Pro-poor adaptation. Another point to consider is thecould not even afford storage activities that are adaptive capacity of the local people, especiallyeven aimed at short-term storage through a flood the poor. The issue of how to improve the resil-of several days, as these are households that have iency of local people and what kinds of mecha-difficulties in making ends meet. While short-term nisms or institutions can facilitate that capacitycoping can in fact build long-term resilience, the is still a question. In many cases, simple advancemajority of households interviewed simply don’t provision of information can raise awareness of
  • 93. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 71self-protection from extreme weather events. incomes through migration or shifting to newInformation of those weather events should be sources of income. Most of these options areprovided to local people early and accurately, so low-cost, flexible, adaptable, and require no inputpeople can have enough time to prepare their from authorities, which are major reasons whyhouse and help other houses in case of need, they have been pursued by households who usu-many respondents said. Uncertainty is one of the ally lack many financial resources.most cited causes that prevents households fromperforming adaptation activities. Information On the other hand, most planned adaptationdissemination can help prevent uncertainty and options by authorities have been more focused onincrease resiliency. hard options, such as building new roads, placing new houses away from vulnerable areas, installingTo improve the adaptive capacity of the local more water pumps, and building more reservoirs.people, especially the poor, it was suggested in In some cases, both hard and soft options, likemost field sites that there needed to be more live- information provision and early warning systems,lihood alternatives for local people. In case of have been in place, but there is very little focus onBai Huong fishermen, their mono-livelihood has capacity building or policy changes.weakened the adaptive capacity of local people,and also made them become more sensitive to Institutional needs for adaptation. In terms of proac-weather events. This recommendation is closely tive responses by institutions to adaptation needs,related to the need to give local people more within governmental agencies closer cooperationrights to access and manage the natural resource among different sectors is needed. Additionally,available in their region. The restrictions on land, though storm and flood control is highly priori-forests, and water in Cu Lao Cham island created tized by the central government and local authori-great resource constraints on households, and the ties, climate change is a different type of issue andlack of forest management rights in Kon Tum as such requires new thinking about the admin-kept households from being able to fall back on istrative structures and functions needed to copeforest goods during times of need. with it. For example, the Committee for Storm and Flood Control at local levels only operates“Hard” adaptation vs. “soft” adaptation. In most intensively just before the storm and flood seasondefinitions, “hard adaptation measures usually (late spring and summer) and members do notimply the use of specific technologies and actions get salaries, so the work is another burden on theinvolving capital goods, such as dikes, seawalls shoulders of officers or local people. Participatingand reinforced buildings, whereas soft adaptation people often rotate year to year, so there is no long-measures focus on information, capacity building, term thinking in terms of personnel skills. There-policy and strategy development, and institutional fore, it is necessary to have financial mechanismsarrangements” (World Bank 2010) There have and other types of incentives in terms of financebeen very few hard adaptation measures taken and social relationships to encourage people toby individuals to protect their houses, lands and take a more active and long-term role in institu-assets, such as building more permanent houses tions to combat climate change. Overall, sepa-or building and improving drainage systems. The rate budgets for climate change adaptation andmajority of actions by households have been soft, confrontation at various scales, as well as humanbehavioral ones: preparing for storms by moving resources for this kind of work, and the coopera-goods and tightening houses and boats; changing tion and information sharing among responsiblecrops grown or seasons planted; using traditional agencies/ sectors, are likely to be the key factorsknowledge to keep livestock alive; and diversifying in improving institutional adaptive capacity.
  • 94. 72 S EV EN E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
  • 95. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 73Coastal PortsWithin the coastal zone identified as vulnerable to Coastal Ports andthe various impacts associated with climate change, Sea Level Riseincluding sea level rise and intensified storm surges,various types of urban and rural infrastructure areat risk (e.g. road and bridges, buildings, irrigation Althrough the design of ports and harbors allowsschemes, water supply, etc.). Along its 3,200 km efficient operation over a range of sea level fluctua-coastline, Vietnam has a total of 116 seaports. The tions, sea level rise and changes in the frequencymost important of these are shown in Figure 14. or intensity of storms will alter the stresses on portThe largest ports, each with a throughput in excess infrastructure and associated facilities, leading to aof 20 million tons per year, are those of Ho Chi combination of greater expenditures on operationsMinh City, Quang Ninh, Vung Tau, and Haiphong. and maintenance together with an accelerated dete-The last of the EACC sector studies, on coastal ports rioration in berths, buildings, and other port assets.(VIMARU 2010), examined possible impacts of cli- The effects are not invariably negative since, formate change on port infrastructure in Vietnam. example, a rise in sea level may reduce the need to dredge ports and channels, but overall the impact ofOver the period 1995–2008, Vietnam’s ports climate change is likely to increase costs and requirehave seen a rapid growth in the volume of cargo more investment to replace or upgrade infrastruc-handled, which has increased from 38 million ture. Table 37 lists the main consequences of climatetons in 1995 to 197 million tons in 2008 (Figure change on port operations and infrastructure.15). Imports and exports (as opposed to domesticcargo) have dominated this large increase. The elevation of quays and platforms at 96 exist- ing seaports were compared with maximum waveNew terminals are being constructed and planned heights using MoNRE’s climate change scenario,all along the coastline, particularly in the south which assumes a 75 cm rise in sea level by 2100 inaround Ho Chi Minh City and in the north order to estimate potential flood heights for thesearound Hai Phong. The country is expected to quays and platforms. About 37 percent (36) of theseinvest approximately $55.5 billion to build new ports already face problems of flooding and stormseaports and upgrade existing ones over the period damage without taking account of the effects of cli-2010–30, and total tonnage handling is expected to mate change, though the extent of the flooding willincrease approximately 10 times over this period. get worse as a result of climate change. For the other
  • 96. 74 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Figure 14 Most Important Seaports Figure 15 Volume and Distribution of Cargo Throughput200150100 50 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Export Import Domestic Transit
  • 97. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 75 Table 37 Drivers and Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Ports Drivers Potential impact on ports Increase in the magnitude, extent, and duration of storm Degradation, failure, and replacement surges, coastal flooding, spray zone, and erosion patterns Changed dredging requirements Lowland flooding Wave attack at higher water level reducing the Increased vulnerability of structures energy loss of breaking Changes in frequency duration and intensity of storms Loss of sand offshore and onshore Degradation of structures Loss of viable industrial land for port enlargements Problem in maneuvering Change in the sea level range Degradation of materials over time (and other sea state parameters) Corrosion of wharfs and jettiesports, a further 26 will begin to suffer from flooding only be a very approximate exercise, since eachby 2050, and 19 in the period 2050–2100. port requires specific technical studies to assess the feasibility and cost of various adaptation options. Subject to this qualification, the total cost ofAdaptation Costs and adapting ports to cope with the effects of climateOptions change up to 2100 is likely to fall in the range $400–$500 million, or about $12 million per year if the investments are made before 2050. ManyIn order to maintain the operation of ports at of the ports will receive substantial investment totheir existing levels (number of operating days per expand capacity, while some may be replaced byyear), the options for adaptation that were exam- new ports in more suitable locations. This meansined included (a) redevelopment and/or raising that the actual cost of adaptation is likely to bequay walls and fendering systems, (b) improve- considerably lower than the maximum figure,ments in the surface drainage system to overcome because adaptation will be undertaken as part ofany increase in the frequency of overtopping and more general projects to expand and modernizelowland flooding, and (c) increasing the mainte- existing ports.nance and replacement of port infrastructure. A final point concerns the importance of allow-These adaptation options were examined in case ing for a combination of future sea level rise andstudies for three ports—Hai Phong, Cai Lan, and storm surges when designing and constructingHai Thinh—taking into consideration each port’s either new ports or port upgrades. The choicelength of quay walls and land surface (yards and of a time horizon that should be built into plan-stores). The case studies allow for the cost of ning decisions involves a tradeoff between aadaptation to accommodate the projected rise in higher initial investment and the risk of needingsea level up to 2100. These costs were estimated to spend significant sums to upgrade and adaptat approximately $48 million for Hai Phong, ports in the future. Since the marginal cost of$3 million for Cai Lan, and $2 million for Hai buying insurance against future sea level riseThinh. The difference in costs reflects the much is relatively low—for example, by constructinglarger size of Hai Phong. higher quay walls and providing more surface drainage—it is likely to be appropriate to designExtrapolating the cost of adaptation from these new ports and port upgrades with a time hori-case studies to all of Vietnam’s coastal ports can zon of at least 2100.
  • 98. 76 EIGH T E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
  • 99. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 77Lessons LearnedClimate change will have a significant impact on those in the top 20 percent of households. Thesome regions and sectors of Vietnam’s rural econ- effects will also be quite uneven across regions:omy. Still, in macroeconomic terms the impacts of households living in the Central Highlands regionclimate change on agriculture and related sectors, will be the hardest hit because of a decline in agri-even with no adaptation, appear to be relatively cultural value-added of up to 30 percent.modest, reducing the projected growth of con-sumption over the next 40 years from 4.1 percent Thus, the driving purpose of policies to adaptper year to 3.95 percent per year. In practice, there to climate change should be to protect the poor,will be substantial autonomous adaptation even the vulnerable, and those least able to respond towithout active government intervention, since changing climatic stresses. In large part the focusfarmers will change the crops and crop varieties of planned adaptation should be on providingthat they grow and their methods of farming. farmers and others with the tools and resources that will enable them to respond to climateThe limited impact of climate change is a conse- change itself and to the new risks that will accom-quence of the dynamism and prospects for eco- pany climate change. Fortunately, this can benomic growth driven by industrial development done at a moderate cost by building on programsand the growth of services. For this reason it is and policies that are recognized as being essentialimportant not to neglect those who continue to for future development. The key elements of andepend on farming and other rural occupations adaptation strategy, at least for the sectors lookedfor their employment and incomes. at under the EACC studies, are:The major concern is the extent to which climate ■■ Increased expenditures on research, devel-change will hit poor households in general, partly opment, and extension for crop production,because of the decline in agricultural incomes aquaculture, and forestry to develop new cropand partly because of an increase in food prices varieties that are more tolerant to drought,relative to the general cost of living. The lowest salinity, higher temperatures early in the grow-20 percent of households arranged by household ing season, etc.expenditure per person, both in rural and urbanareas, will experience larger reductions in real ■■ Investment in expanding irrigation infrastruc-standards of living due to climate change than ture, especially in the central regions where
  • 100. 78 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E the opportunities for irrigation expansion are If the program of adaptation were to be imple- greatest. mented, the adverse impacts of climate change on poorer households would largely be avoided.■■ Increased spending on the maintenance and There would still be a net loss of agricultural extension of coastal and flood defenses to min- value-added and aggregate consumption in the imize the impacts of sea inundations, salinity Wet and Dry climate scenarios, but the magnitude intrusion, and river flooding, especially in the of the losses would be significantly smaller and Mekong River and Red River Deltas. the skewed impact on the distribution of income would be corrected. In addition, any strategyMuch of this spending would be justified even would be adjusted to respond to the specific fea-without climate change, so adaptation to cli- tures of climate change as more is learned aboutmate change is primarily a matter of building it, so the residual impacts of climate change could,on no regrets measures. Under the intermediate in practice, be offset by a more focused allocationMoNRE climate scenario, the program of agri- of resources in response to different challenges.cultural adaptation outlined in this study wouldincrease agricultural incomes relative to the base- A related point is that the nature of climateline, especially in the Central Highlands region, change and adaptation is an area of great uncer-illustrating the general benefits of the strategy. tainty. The three climate scenarios used for this
  • 101. V I E T N A M CO U N T RY ST U DY 79study give a sense of the range of possible out- current weather variability and build resiliencecomes of climate change. The biggest uncertain- into such systems.ties concern changes in the level and seasonalpattern of precipitation at a regional level. The This study has concentrated on Vietnam’s ruralessence of any well-designed policy to adapt to economy, but climate change—including sea levelclimate change must be flexibility, so that the poli- rise—will affect the country’s infrastructure andcies can be modified as more information about require expenditures on adaptation. The casethe direction of climate change is collected. That study of coastal ports reinforces the lesson thatis an important reason for making a strong com- the costs of adaptation are likely to be modest.mitment to research, development, and extension The total cost of protecting existing ports that areactivities, since the focus of such efforts can be exposed to flooding as a result of a higher sea levelshifted as more is learned about the extent and combined with greater storm surges is estimatedimpacts of climate change. as no more than $500 million over 40 years, or about 1 percent of planned investment in portsClimate change should not be seen simply as a over the period 2010–30. The EACC studies didstory of doom and despondency. For agricul- not look at other infrastructure areas.ture, aquaculture, and forestry, there will be newopportunities that can be built on as well as a loss An equally important lesson from the case studyof income from existing activities. Again, the key is that it is essential to plan ahead for climateelement is flexibility and a willingness to facili- change. Ports that are built over the next 10–20tate change—that is, to resist pressures to protect years should be designed to cope with sea levelsactivities whose future is threatened by a chang- and storms to which they may be exposed 50 oring climate and to redirect resources to activities more years from now. It is much cheaper to buildthat should benefit. Such change is rarely easy, margins of resilience and safety into new infra-but the government should ensure that it designs structure than to upgrade assets during the courseand implements policies that smooth the path of of their life. The same lesson emerges from theautonomous adaptation wherever this is possible. analyses for infrastructure and coastal protection undertaken as part of the EACC global study.Climate change is the long-term face of weather The total cost of adaptation for these sectorsvariability. Policies and systems that can effec- amounts to about 2 percent of total investmenttively cope with existing weather variability will for the Global Wet scenario and about 1.3 percentbe more successful in adapting to future climate of total investment for the Global Dry scenario,change than those that cannot. Hence, it is on the assumption that adaptation measures areimportant to enhance the capacities of agricul- combined with new investments anticipating cli-tural and water systems in Vietnam to cope with mate change up to 2100.
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  • 108. 86 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Ministry of Foreign Affairs Government of the NetherlandsThe World Bank Group1818 H Street, NWWashington, D.C. 20433 USATel: 202 473 1000Fax: 202 477 6391www.worldbank.org/eacc