M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY i Economics of Adaptation to Climate ChangeMOZAMBIQUE
ii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G EEACC Publications and Reports1. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Synthesis Report2. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Social Synthesis Report3. The Cost to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methods and EstimatesCountry Case Studies:1. Bangladesh: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change2. Bolivia: Adaptation to Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment and Economic Aspects3. Ethiopia : Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change4. Ghana: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change5. Mozambique: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change6. Samoa: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change7. Vietnam: Economics of Adaptation to Climate ChangeDiscussion Papers:1. Economics of Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events in Developing Countries2. The Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Infrastructure3. Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change4. Costs of Agriculture Adaptation to Climate Change5. Cost of Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change6. Costs of Adaptation Related to Industrial and Municipal Water Supply and Riverine Flood Protection7. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change-Ecosystem Services8. Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Global Hydrology and Water Availability9. Climate Change Scenarios and Climate Data10. Economics of Coastal Zone Adaptation to Climate Change11. Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Human Health in Developing Countries12. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh13. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bolivia14. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia15. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ghana16. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique17. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Vietnam18. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Identifying Pro-Poor Adaptation Options19. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Pro-Poor Adaptation: Capacity Development Manual
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY iEconomics of Adaptationto Climate ChangeMOZ AM BIQU E Ministry of Foreign Affairs Government of the Netherlands
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY iiiContentsAcronyms ixAcknowledgments xiExecutive Summary xiiiApproach xiiiAdaptation Options xixAdaptation priorities: local-level perspective xxiLessons and recommendations xxi1 Introduction 1Background 1Scope of the report and collaboration 12 Overview of the Mozambican economy 5Background 5Current growth policies 6Vulnerability to climate 73 Climate forecasts using four different General Circulation Model outputs 114 Agriculture 15Background 15Modeling the sectoral economic impacts 16Adaptation options 195 Roads 25Background 25Modeling the sectoral economic impacts 25Adaptation options 30
iv E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E6 Hydropower 37Background 37Modeling the sectoral economic impacts 38Adaptation options 437 Coastal Zone 47Background 47Modelling the Impact 48Adaptation Options 508 Cyclone assessment 59Background 59Modeling the impact 62Conclusion 669 Social dimensions of climate change 69Background 69Methodology 69Adaptation options 73Conclusion 7710 CGE Model description 79Model description 79Strategic options 82Adaptation Options 9011 Discussion 9712 References 100Annexes (available on line at www.worldbank.org/eacc) I. Social dimensions II. River basin and hydro power modeling III. The Comprehensive Mozambique Water Resource Model (CMWRM) IV. WEAP21 model description V. Crop modeling VI. Detailed description of the CGE model
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY vFiguresES-1. Mozambique Wet and Dry Temperature in 2050 xvES-2. Mozambique Wet and Dry Precipitation in 2050 xviES-3. Climate Change Effects on Yield for All Major Crops xviES-4. Impact on Hydropower—Annual Generation, 2005–50 xviiES-5. Decomposition of impact channels from a macroeconomic perspective xixES- 6. Present value of reduction in climate change damages, 2030–50 xix1. GDP growth in Mozambique, 2001–09 62. GDP composition in Mozambique 63. Flow chart of project model sequencing 134. Change in Cassava Yield for Northern Mozambique, 2001–50 185. Change in Cassava Yield for Central Mozambique, 2001–50 196. Change in Cassava Yield for Southern Mozambique, 2001–50 207. Decade average cost increase for maintaining gravel and earth roads 298. Decade average cost increase for maintaining paved roads 299. Schematic representation of a large-scale hydropower facility 3810. Power Generation Master Plan, facility location 3911. Existing and planned transmission lines in Mozambique 4012. Assumed temporal distribution of project costs 4213. Assumed timeline of project investment schedule 4314. Comparison of hydropower energy production in Mozambique (GW-hrs/year) 4415. Two-land zoning (coastal and other land area) of Mozambique, the coastal area 48 being defined as the area within 30m contour of mean sea level, and the rest being above 30m mean sea level. 16. Observed annual mean sea level records at the Maputo station, 1960–2001 49 (INAHINA, 2008; INGC, 2009) 17. Global mean sea level rise scenarios used (relative to 1990 levels) 5118. Total annual land loss (erosion) due to sea level rise from 2010 to 2050 in Mozambique 53 for the High, Medium, Low, and No SLR scenarios studied with no adaptation measures employed (Cases 12, 13, 14 & 15 of Table 8) 19. Total annual land loss (erosion) due to sea level rise from 2010 to 2050 in Mozambique 53 for the High, Medium, Low, and No SLR scenarios studied with adaptation measures employed (Cases 1, 2, 3 & 7 of Table 8). 20. Total annual land loss (submergence) due to sea level rise from 2010 to 2050 54 in Mozambique for the High, Medium, Low, and No SLR scenarios studied with no adaptation measures employed (Cases 12, 13, 14 & 15 of Table 8) 21. Total annual land loss (submergence) due to sea level rise from 2010 to 2050 in 54 Mozambique for the High, Medium, Low, and No SLR scenarios studied with adaptation measures employed (Cases 1, 2, 3 & 7 of Table 8) 22. Cumulative forced migration since 2000 due to sea level rise in Mozambique for the 55 High, Medium, Low, and No SLR scenarios studied with no adaptation measures employed (Cases 12, 13, 14 & 15 of Table 8).
vi E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E23. Cumulative forced migration since 2000 due to sea level rise in Mozambique for the 55 High, Medium, Low, and No SLR scenarios studied with adaptation measures employed (Cases 1, 2, 3 & 7 of Table 8) 24. Total residual damage costs due to sea level rise from 2010 to 2050 in Mozambique 56 for the High, Medium, Low, and No SLR scenarios studied with no adaptation measures employed (Cases 12, 13, 14 & 15 of Table 8). 25. Total residual damage costs due to sea level rise from 2010 to 2050 in Mozambique for 56 the High, Medium, Low, and No SLR scenarios studied with adaptation measures employed (Cases 1, 2, 3 & 7 of Table 8). 26. Total adaptation costs due to sea level rise from 2010 to 2050 in Mozambique for the 57 High, Medium, Low, and No SLR scenarios (Cases 1, 2 and 3 of Table 8 for beach nourishment costs and Cases 4, 5 and 6 of Table 8 for dike costs for the High, Medium, and Low scenarios, respectively, and Case 7 of Table 8 for both costs for No SLR scenario). 27. Beira’s Populous Areas Are at Low Elevation 6028. Map of tropical cyclone historical event tracks and intensity in the South Indian Ocean 61 for 1980 to 2008 by Saffir-Simpson scale categorization 29. SLOSH Model Setup for BEIRA 6330. Storm Tracks 6531. Return times 6532. SLOSH-estimated storm surge exceedance curve, with and without SLR 6633. Estimated Change in Effective Return Time for the 100-year Storm as a result of SLR 6734. Map of study sites in Mozambique 7035. PSD workshop steps 7236. Proportion affected by climatic hazards and receiving early warning 7437. Average annual real per capita absorption growth rate, 2003–50 8338. Average annual value of absorption, 2046–50 8439. Real absorption, 2003–50. 8540. Deviation in average annual real per capita absorption growth from baseline, 2003–50 8641. Decomposition of total climate change growth rate losses, 2003–50 8742. Possible additional declines in agricultural technology accumulation, 2003–50 8843. Deviation in sector and regional GDP growth from baseline, 2003–50 8944. Cumulative discounted losses in real absorption, 2003–50. 9045. Cumulative discounted losses in real absorption by decade, 2003–50. 9146. Reduction in national absorption losses under the adaptation scenarios, 2003–50 9447. Household Consumption: Coefficient of Variation of Year-to-Year Growth Rates 95
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY viiTablesES-1. Percentage change in the stock of roads (measured in kilometers) relative to base xviii1. GCM/emission scenarios for EACC 122. Total yield of each crop under study for Mozambique (tons) 153. Areas of the main irrigated crops according to the inventory from 2002 164. Average of the percent change in yield for Mozambique 215. 10th percentile of the percent change in yield for Mozambique 216. Median of the percent change in yield for Mozambique 237. 90th percentile of the percent change in yield for Mozambique 238. Base classified and urban road networks (km) 259. Unit maintenance cost rates (US$) and return periods 2610. Dose-response descriptions for maintenance costs 2711. Maintenance cost increases for different types of roads (in US$) 2912. Cost impacts per policy approach (in US$) 3213. Treatment cycles and cost (in US$) 3414. Attributes of existing primary hydropower generation in Mozambique 3715. Generation Scenarios Developed in the Energy Master Plan for Mozambique 4116. Projects included in the baseline hydropower simulation. 4217. Land area distributions of the ten provinces of Mozambique, divided 47 into three zones in table. 18. Adaptation options considered in the DIVA analysis. 5019. The sea level rise scenarios used in this study for the beach erosion/nourishment and port 52 upgrade (no proactive adaptation), and for flooding and dike costs (with proactive adaptation over 50 years). 20. Historic tropical cyclone (Categories 1-4, Storms (TS), and Depressions (TD)) incidents 61 which have caused landfall at different parts of the coast of Mozambique during 1984-2008. 21. Overview of select adaptation options identified in Mozambique 7522. Average real per capita absorption growth rates ( percent) 9223. Percentage change in the stock of roads (measured in kilometers) relative to base 93Boxes1. Improved Crop Yield Estimates: INGC and World Bank Collaboration 17
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M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY ixAcronymsANE National Roads Agency PEDSA Strategic Plan for the DevelopmentCGE Computable general equilibrium of Agricultural SectorCRU Climate Research Unit PPCR Pilot Program for Climate ResolutionCV Coefficient of variation PQG Programa Quinquenal do GovernoDIVA Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability (Government of Mozambique five- Assessment year plan)DNA Department of Water Affairs PRA Participatory rural appraisalEACC Economics of Adaptation to Climate PSD Participatory scenario development Change SADC Southern African DevelopmentFAO Food and Agriculture Organization Community of the United Nations SCF Strategic Climate FundFEMA Federal Emergency Management SLOSH Sea, lake, and overland surge from Unit hurricanes (US National WeatherGCM Global circulation model Services Model)GDP Gross domestic product SLR Sea level riseGFFDR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction TFESSD Trust Fund for Environmentally and and Recovery Socially Sustainable DevelopmentGRDC Global Runoff Data Center TIA Trabalho de Inquerito AgricolaGTZ German Development Coop- TPC Tropical Prediction Center eration (Gesellschaft für Technische UNDP United Nations Development Zusammenarbeit) ProgrammeHDI Human Development Index WEAP Water Evaluation and PlanningIMPEND Investment Model for Planning System Ethiopian Nile DevelopmentINGC National Institute for Disaster UNITS OF MEASURE Management Agl Above ground levelIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate AMWS Annual mean wind speed Change gW gigawattJTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center ha hectaresMPD Ministry of Planning and km kilometers Development km2 square kilometersNAPA National Adaptation Programme of kW kilowatt Action m metersNGO Nongovernmental organization mW megawattPARPA Action Plan for the Reduction of Absolute Poverty (Government of USD/US$ United States Dollar Note: Unless otherwise noted, all dollars are U.S. dollars. Mozambique)
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M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY xiAcknowledgmentsKenneth Strzepek, Channing Arndt, Paul The World Bank task team was lead by Jean-Chinowsky, Anne Kuriakose (World Bank), James Christophe Carret (World Bank).Neumann, Robert Nicholls, James Thurlow, andLen Wright with support from Carina Bachofen The Mozambique Economics of Adaptation to(World Bank), Sally Brown, Charles Fant, Adèle Climate Change (EACC) case study was conductedFaure, Susan Hanson, Abiy Kebede, Jean-Marc by a partnership among the World Bank (leadingMayotte, Michelle Minihane, Isilda Nhantumbo, its technical aspects), the Trust Fund for Environ-and Raphael Uaiene (all Consultants except as mentally and Socially Sustainable Developmentnoted) authored the report. Inputs were also (TFESSD); the governments of The Netherlands,provided by World Bank staff including Aziz the United Kingdom, and Switzerland (fundingBouzaher, Raffaello Cervigni, Sergio Margulis the study); and the government of Mozambique,(team leader of the overall EACC study), in particular the Ministry of Planning and Devel-Stephen Mink, Antonio Nucifora, and Kiran opment (MPD), the National Institute for DisasterPandey (Coordinator EACC country studies). Management (INGC), the Department of WaterRobert Livernash provided editorial services, Affairs (DNA), and the National Roads AgencyJim Cantrell contributed editorial input and (ANE). The team would like to thank the partner-coordinated production, and Hugo Mansilla ship that initiated, funded, and actively engagedprovided editorial and production support. with the study team through its multiyear journey.
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M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY xiiiExecutive SummaryThis report is part of a broader global study, the ApproachEconomics of Adaptation to Climate Change(EACC), which has two principal objectives: (a) to The three studies in Africa use similar methodolo-develop a global estimate of adaptation costs for gies. In accordance with the broader EACC meth-informing international climate negotiations; and odology, climate change impacts and adaptation(b) to help decision makers in developing coun- strategies were defined with regard to a baselinetries assess the risks posed by climate change and (without-climate change) development trajectory,design national strategies for adapting to it. designed as a plausible representation of how Mozambique’s economy might evolve in the periodThe first part of the study—the “global track”— 2010–50 on the basis of historical trends and cur-was aimed to meet the first objective. Using sev- rent government plans. The baseline is not a fore-eral climate and macroeconomic models, the cast, but instead it provides a counterfactual—aglobal track (World Bank 2009) concludes that by reasonable trajectory for growth and structural2020, the annual costs of adaptation for devel- change of the economy in the absence of climateoping countries will range from $75 billion to change that can be used as a basis for comparison$100 billion per year; of this amount, the average with various climate change scenarios.annual costs for Africa would be about $18 billionper year. Impacts are thus evaluated as the deviation of the variables of interest (economic welfare, sec-In order to meet the second objective, the study tor development objectives, etc.) from the base-also commissioned a “country track” consisting line trajectory in priority sectors. Adaptation isof seven country-specific case studies. Mozam- defined as a set of actions intended to reduce orbique was one of three African countries selected eliminate the deviation from the baseline develop-for the “country-track” study, along with Ghana ment path caused by climate change.and Ethiopia. The objective of the country trackwas both “ground-truthing” the global study and The impacts of climate change, and the meritshelping decision makers in developing countries of adaptation strategies, depend on future cli-understand climate risks and design effective mate outcomes, which are typically derived fromadaptation strategies. global circulation models (GCMs) and are uncer- tain, both because the processes are inherently
xiv E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Estochastic and because the GCM models differ the assessment did not include climate changein how they represent those processes. Since sci- impacts on ecosystem services or on the prevalenceentists are more certain of likely patterns of tem- of malaria. The EACC study also did not considerperature increase than of changes in precipitation, a number of key adaptation strategies. Excludedthe work describes for Mozambique a “wet” and were improved public awareness and communi-a “dry” scenario. In order to enable comparison cations; insurance mechanisms; wider access towith other countries, this report utilizes the two weather information (that is, not related to the sec-“extreme” GCMs used in the global track of the tors mentioned), improved land use planning andEACC (labeled “global wet” and “global dry”). management, such as improved building codes,However, a globally wet scenario is not necessarily not building on flood plains; regional watershedwet in Mozambique. In fact, the global wet sce- management; forest and woodland conservation;nario projects a slight drying and the global dry is and mangrove and wetland conservation. Thesein fact somewhat wetter in Mozambique. Hence, options have potentially very high returns. Never-two additional models—labeled “Mozambique theless, the study does provide interesting results.wet” and “Mozambique dry”—were selected inorder to represent the range of possible outcomes When identifying potential resilience measures tofor Mozambique. adopt, both “hard” infrastructure—such as sea walls, irrigation systems, and power generationThe Mozambique EACC study selected four sec- and distribution—and “soft” policy options weretors that are believed to be vulnerable to climate considered. For example, road redesign proved tochange: (1) agriculture, which employs over 70 be one of the most powerful adaptation optionspercent of the population; (2) energy, particularly considered. The study makes the point that, in thehydropower generation, which is dependent on long run, adaptation strategies should not be lim-water runoff; (3) transport infrastructure, notably ited to the sectors studied. The results of the studyroads; and (4) coastal areas, which do not conform have to be qualified because of these limitations.to a “sector” but characterize specific geographi-cal areas vulnerable to floods and storm surges Climate change impactsdirectly and indirectly related to sea level rise. Changes in precipitation and temperature fromThe analysis developed growth paths “with cli- the four GCMs (the two global scenarios plus twomate change” incorporating climate shocks on extreme scenarios for Mozambique) were used topriority sectors under alternative climate projec- estimate (a) the changes in yield each year for bothtions. The economic impact of climate change irrigated and rain-fed crops, as well as irrigationwas assessed by comparing with a baseline trajec- demand for six cash crops and eight food crops;tory labeled “without climate change.” Finally, (b) flow into the hydropower generation facili-costs of adaptation measures required to offset ties and the consequent changes in generationthe negative impacts of climate change were cal- capacity; and (c) the impact on transport infra-culated both at the sectoral and economy level. structure and the increased demand and costs ofThe study also considered the social dimensions road maintenance. Simulations of sea level riseof climate change. were constructed independently of the climate scenarios.1 Two approaches were undertaken.While this study is one of the most comprehensivestudies looking into the implications of climate 1 The study of sea level rise in Mozambique considers three seachange for a low-income country to date, some level rise scenarios—termed low, medium, and high, ranging between 40cm and 126cm by 2100—following the approachimpact channels were not considered. For example, used in the global study.
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY xv Figure ES.1 Mozambique Wet and Dry Temperature in 2050First, an integrated model of coastal systems was Precipitation will either increase or decreaseused to assess the risk and costs of sea level rise depending on the models, again with regional dif-in Mozambique. Second, focused analyses of the ferences. The main message here is that climateinteractions between cyclone risk and sea level will become increasingly variable and uncertain,rise were undertaken for Beira and Maputo, the and that people and decision makers need to plantwo largest cities in Mozambique. for this uncertainty.As illustrated in Figure ES.1, by 2050, Mozam- Agriculturebique will see an increase in temperature of 1–2degrees Celsius no matter what the scenario; more Agriculture in Mozambique accounts for 24 per-precisely, temperatures will increase by 1.15 to 2.09 cent of GDP and 70 percent of employment. Indegrees Celsius, though with regional variations. all scenarios, the net average crop yield for the entire country is lower relative to baseline yieldComparing Figure ES.1 with Figure ES.2, it without climate change. The impact of climatebecomes clear that regional variation in tem- change over the next 40 years would lead to aperature is not as significant as variation in pre- 2–4 percent decrease in yields of the major crops,cipitation. As shown in the maps below, regional especially in the central region, as shown in Fig-variation in precipitation continues to be signifi- ure ES.3. This, combined with the effects of morecant between northern and southern Mozam- frequent flooding on rural roads, would result inbique—no matter what the climate scenario. an agricultural GDP loss of 4.5 percent (conser-However, depending on the scenario, precipita- vative) and 9.8 percent (most pessimistic).tion in the southern region is projected to eitherdecrease relatively little (in the dry scenario) or Mozambican agriculture is primarily rain-fed,increase dramatically (in the wet scenario). with only 3 percent of farmers using fertilizer.
xvi E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Figure ES.2 Mozambique Wet and Dry Precipitation in 2050 Figure ES.3 Climate Change Effects on Yield for All Major Crops Moz. Wet Moz. Dry SOUTH CENTRAL Global Wet NORTH Global Dry -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%Note: The crops modeled are cassava, sorghum, soybeans, sweet potatoes and yams, wheat, groundnuts, maize, millet, andpotatoes.
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY xvii“Slash and burn” techniques are widely used, and The graph in Figure ES.4 illustrates that underthese methods, combined with uncontrolled fires, all scenarios except the most pessimistic, theresult in soils that are poor in vegetative cover and impact of climate change on energy suppliesvulnerable to erosion—and hence to further losses would be only modestly negative (1.4 percentin productivity from floods and droughts. less electricity generated than “without” climate change). This is because the plans for new energyEnergy generation plants have largely already taken into account changing patterns of temperature andOnly 7 percent of Mozambicans have access to precipitation. The most significant impact wouldelectricity. The primary source is hydropower be from increased evapotranspiration (and hencefrom barrages in the Zambezi Basin. There are less water available for electricity) from the reser-plans to develop hydropower further, both for voirs. Although the EACC study did not modelexport to Southern Africa and to increase supplies this, the operators of the hydropower generationfor the population. Given the economic poten- plants will need to pay particular attention totial of hydropower, the EACC study undertook the timing of water releases to ensure sufficientan analysis of the potential impacts of climate downstream flow at times of low water availabil-change on hydropower generation. The potential ity and to avoid interference with port activities.energy deficit due to climate change relative to the The EACC study did not consider other formsbaseline’s generation potential, from 2005–50, is of energy (fuelwood, coal).of approximately 110,000 GWh. Figure ES.4 Impact on Hydropower—Annual Generation 2005–50 3500 3000 Energy (GW-hrs/yr) 2500 2000 1500 BASE (no CC) Variation due to CC 1000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year
xviii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G ETransport Coastal zonesMozambique already has one of the lowest road Regarding coastal zones, the study examined thedensities per person of any African country. The effect of sea level rise on coastal populations. TheEACC study modeled the impact of severe rain- results from the integrated models of coastal sys-fall events on roads. The economic impact would tems (DIVA) show that in the 2040s, if there is noresult from loss of access from damage to roads, adaptation, Mozambique could lose up to 4,850culverts, and bridges. The overall losses would be km2 of land from today (or up to 0.6 percent ofsubstantial, in part because of the importance of national land area) and a cumulative total ofcurrent and required investments in the sector. 916,000 people could be forced to migrate away from the coast (or 2.3 percent of the 2040s popula- Table ES.1 Percentage Change in the tion). In the worst case, the total annual damage Stock of Roads (measured in costs are estimated to reach $103 million per year in kilometers) Relative to Base the 2040s, with the forced migration being a large Scenario No Adaptation Adaptation contributor to that cost. These damages and costs (%) (%) are mainly concentrated in Zambezia, Nampula, Baseline 0 1 Sofala, and Maputo provinces, reflecting their low- Global dry -22 -19 lying topography and relatively high population. Global wet -16 -14 Moz dry -2 -2 The analysis of the interactions between cyclone Moz wet -12 -9 risk and sea level rise performed for Beira and Maputo illustrate that relatively small levels of sea level rise dramatically increase the probabilityFigure ES.5 Decomposition of Impact of severe storm surge events. This is under the Channels from a Macroeconomic Perspective assumption of no change in the intensity and fre- quency of cyclone events. Results are more dra- CHANGE IN PER CAPITA ABSORPTION GROWTH RATE FROM BASELINE (%-POINT) matic for Beira as opposed to Maputo City. The probability of a cyclone strike in Maputo is lower Global Dry Global Wet Moz Dry Moz Wet due to its latitudinal positioning. (CSIRO) (NCAR) (UKMO) (IPSL)0.0 Economy The estimated impacts on agriculture, transport,-0.1 hydropower, and coastal infrastructure2 were fed into a macroeconomic model—a dynamic com--0.2 putable general equilibrium (CGE) model—that complements the sector models by providing a complete picture of economic impacts across all-0.3 sectors within a coherent analytical framework. The CGE model looks at the impact of climate change on aggregate economic performance. As-0.4 indicated in Figure ES.5 below, climate change 2 The CGE model takes into account the full transportation sec- FALLING CROP YIELDS AND RISING SEA LEVEL tor, including coastal infrastructure. Coastal adaptation options DETERIORATING TRANSPORT SYSTEM are studied and presented separately. DECLINING HYDROPOWER GENERATION
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY xixhas potential implications on rates of economic Figure ES.6 Present Value of Reduction in Climate Change Damages, 2030-2050growth. These growth effects accumulate into sig- DISCOUNTED US $ BILLION (CONST.2003)nificant declines in national welfare by 2050. Inthe worst case scenario, the net present value of 8damages (discounted at 5 percent) reaches about 7$7.6 billion dollars, which is equivalent to anannual payment of a bit more than $400 million. 6GDP falls between 4 percent and 14 percent rela-tive to baseline growth in the 2040–50 decade if 5 6.1 6.1adaptation strategies are not implemented. 4Figure ES.5 decomposes the climate changeshocks into three groups: (1) crop yields, includ- 3ing land loss from sea level rise, (2) the transpor-tation system, and (3) hydropower. The graph 2 0.6illustrates the dominant role played by trans-port system disruption, principally as a result 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5of flooding. The global dry scenario is in fact avery wet scenario for the Zambezi water basin 0 Transport Expanding Agriculture Primaryas a whole, and thus causes significant damage Infrastructure Irrigation R&D Educationto roads. By contrast, the local dry scenario is (3) (4) (5) (6)a very dry scenario for Mozambique and causes AGRICULTURE R&D OR EDUCATIONgreater damages for agriculture. IRRIGATION SEALING UNPAVED ROADSAdaptation Options Sealing unpaved roads reduces the worst-case climate change damages substantially, restoringAfter calculating the impacts, the CGE then consid- approximately a fifth of lost absorption, and withers potential adaptation measures in three sectors— little additional cost (i.e., it is a no-regret actionhydropower, agriculture, and transportation.3 Four advisable even under the baseline). The studyadaptation strategies are introduced in the model considered a number of options for “climate-to minimize the damages: (1) transport policy proofing” roads, given resource constraints andchange,4 and then the transport policy change plus the trade-offs between improving “basic access”(2) increased agricultural research and extension, and having “fewer but stronger” roads. The con-(3) enhanced irrigation, and (4) enhanced invest- clusion is that Mozambique would be advised toment in human capital accumulation (education). focus investments on climate-proofing highly tar-Figure ES.6 shows the present value of the reduc- geted areas, such as culverts, to ensure that designstion in climate change damages over the 2030–50 minimize broader erosion risks, and to set asidetime period (using a 5 percent discount rate). some funds from the investment budget for addi- tional maintenance so that “basic access” roads3 The CGE model takes into account the full transportation sec- can be quickly repaired following heavy rainfall. tor, including coastal infrastructure. Coastal adaptation options are studied and presented separately.4 Options include both hard and soft infrastructural components Remaining welfare losses could be regained with (e.g., changes in transportation operation and maintenance, new improved agricultural productivity or human capi- design standards, transfer of relevant technology to stakeholders, and safety measures). tal accumulation. Currently, only 125,000 hectares
xx E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Eare developed for irrigation in Mozambique, lost could be reduced by a factor of more thanthough only 40,000 ha of this area are actually 80 to 61km2, and the number of people forcedoperational due to operational and maintenance to migrate could be reduced by a factor of 140problems. However, the model results suggest that to 7,000 people. Hence, the total annual residualirrigation investments are a poor alternative: 1 mil- damage cost is reduced by a factor of four to $24lion ha of new irrigation land would only slightly million per year. However, the total investmentreduce climate change damages. Given the poverty required to achieve these adaptation options isof most farmers and the fact that the vast major- estimated at $890 million per year in the 2040sity of Mozambique’s cultivated area (22 million for the high sea level rise scenario, which appearsha) is rainfed, less costly approaches such as water much higher than the benefits of the adaptationharvesting, soil/moisture conservation, and agro- in terms of damages avoided. At the same time,forestry and farm forestry must play a key role in more targeted investments in high value and moreclimate resilience. Improved woodland and forest vulnerable locations can provide positive returns.management will also have broad impacts on the The range of costs of more economically viableresilience of land and on water absorption capac- adaptation options in the 2040s varies from $190ity. Other, “softer” strategies include support for million to $470 million per year depending on theimproved access to markets and inputs, support to sea level rise scenario. Note that the adaptationincreased value addition, and reduction of post- strategy we evaluated, a large-scale sea dike systemharvest losses. Improved livestock and fisheries for Mozambique focused on urban areas, wouldproductivity and value addition are as important be more costly than the estimated benefits of $103as cropped agriculture in this strategy. milllion that accrue through 2050, but as long-term capital assets this dike system would also yield long-In terms of these softer adaptation measures, rais- term benefits in the form of avoided land-loss pro-ing agricultural productivity by an additional 1 tection and avoided population displacement wellpercent each year over baseline productivity trends beyond the 2050 scope of this analysis, and in factoffsets remaining damages to agriculture; for through 2100, as SLR and storm surge risks accel-example, a further 50 percent maize yield increase erate. Those long-term benefits of adaptation,by 2050. Providing primary education to 10 per- while outside the scope of the current study, arecent of the 2050 workforce also offsets damages. considered in the modeling of the choice of coastalLastly, investment costs required to restore welfare adaptive strategies, and could reasonably be far inlosses are subject to debate, but are reasonably less excess of the reported benefits through 2050.than $400 million per year over 40 years. The superior resilience option is likely to includeWith respect to specific coastal adaptation mea- a phased approach to protection of key coastalsures, the integrated coastal system analysis exam- economic assets (e.g. ports and cities) combinedined two protection measures:5 beach/shore with improved land use planning and “soft” infra-nourishment and sea and river dike building and structure. Dikes should be installed where abso-upgrading (including port infrastructure). When lutely necessary to protect current, immobile,these are applied, the physical impacts are signifi- vital infrastructure (like the port of Beira), butcantly reduced. For instance, the total land area new infrastructure located behind the dike should be avoided to prevent catastrophic costs if the5 The study did not examine tradeoffs between “hard” and “soft” dikes are breached. The rule of thumb is simple: infrastructure options, nor did it explicitly consider indirect impacts such as saline intrusion into groundwater and low-lying to the extent possible, install valuable new capi- agricultural areas; these are limitations. It also did not consider tal in safer locations. “Hard” adaptation options, the impact of climate change on fisheries (fish spawning grounds, migration patterns, safety of fishermen) or on tourism. particularly expensive ones, should be subjected
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY xxito serious scrutiny before being undertaken, as Lessons andthe associated costs are potentially large. RecommendationsThe analysis of the interactions of cyclone riskand sea level rise for Beira and Maputo provides Rather than climate change eclipsing develop-more impetus for investment in the near term, ment, it is important to think of socioeconomicparticularly for Beira. While the full cost of the development as overcoming climate change. Thenecessary infrastructure for protecting Beira city best adaptation to climate change is rapid devel-and port has not been estimated to date, the dra- opment that leads to a more flexible and resilientmatic fall in return periods for sea inundation due society. In this sense, the adaptation agenda largelyto sea level rise strongly suggests that protection reinforces the existing development agenda.schemes should be reassessed. The following lessons emerge from the EACCAdaptation Priorities: Mozambique country case study:Local-level Perspective ■■ Adaptation entails increasing the climate resilience of current development plans, with particular attention to transport systems andClimate change poses the greatest risk to livelihoods agriculture and coastal development.based on agriculture. Rainfed agriculture takes thehardest hit from climate hazards, and subsistence ■■ Changes in design standards, such as sealingfarmers, as well as economically and socially mar- unpaved roads, can substantially reduce theginalized individuals (elderly, orphans, widows, impacts of climate change even without addi-female heads of households, and the physically tional resources.handicapped), are the most vulnerable. Education ■■ The imperative of increasing agricultural pro-and overall knowledge about climate events are ductivity and the substantial uncertainties ofneeded so that these groups can expect disasters climate change argue strongly for enhancedto be a recurrent feature in the future. Specifically, investments in agricultural research.more technical assistance for improving land man-agement practices and access to real-time weather ■■ Investments to protect the vast majority offorecasts—effective early warning—will be crucial coastal regions of Mozambique from sea levelto enhancing their adaptive capacity. rise may not be cost effective; however, high value and vulnerable locations, such as cities andThe most frequently mentioned approach for ports, merit specific consideration, especiallyreducing climate impacts was the construction of those at risk for severe storm surge events.irrigation systems, and the most frequently listed ■■ “Soft” adaptation measures are potentially pow-barrier to this was lack of finance. In terms of strat- erful. Because the majority of the capital stock inegies, local populations prioritized improved access 2050 remains to be installed, land use planningto credit, better health care and social services, that channels investment into lower risk loca-as well as programs that enhance the capacity of tions can substantially reduce risk at low cost.community associations to manage local resourceseffectively and support livelihood diversification. ■■ Viewed more broadly, flexible and more resil-Integrating rural areas into markets—including a ient societies will be better prepared to con-great deal of attention to improving transportation front the challenges posed by climate change.infrastructure and diversification away from agri- Hence, investments in human capital contrib-culture— will be important activities, even if costly ute both to the adaptation agenda and to theand difficult to achieve in rural areas. development agenda.
xxii O NE E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY 1IntroductionBackground Under the country track, impacts of climate change and adaptation costs are established byThe Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) sector, but only for the major economic sectorsstudy has two specific objectives. The first is to in each case study country. In contrast with thedevelop a “global” estimate of adaptation costs global analysis, however, vulnerability assessmentsto inform the international community’s efforts and participatory scenario workshops are beingto help those developing countries most vulner- used to highlight the impact of climate changeable to climate change to meet adaptation costs. on vulnerable groups and to identify adaptationThe second objective is to help decision makers strategies that can benefit these groups. Further-in developing countries to better understand and more, macroeconomic analyses using Comput-assess the risks posed by climate change and to bet- able General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling areter design strategies to adapt to climate change. being used to integrate the sector level analyses and to identify cross-sector effects, such as relativeThe EACC study comprises a ‘global track’ to price changes.meet the first study objective and a country spe-cific case study track to meet the second objective.The ‘country track’ comprises of seven countries: Scope of the ReportEthiopia, Mozambique, Ghana, Bangladesh, and CollaborationVietnam, Bolivia and Samoa.Under the global track, adaptation costs for all The purpose of this study is to assist the Gov-developing countries are estimated by major eco- ernment of Mozambique in its efforts to under-nomic sectors using country-level datasets that stand the potential economic impacts of climatehave global coverage. Sectors covered are agri- change and to support its efforts to developculture, forestry, fisheries, infrastructure, water sound policies and investments in response toresources, coastal zones, health, and eco-system these potential impacts. Adaptation options andservices. Cost implications of changes in the their costs were estimated in four economic sec-frequency of extreme weather events are also tors: agriculture, transport infrastructure, hydro-considered, including the implications for social power, and coastal impacts; and compared withprotection programs. costs of inaction.
2 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G ETo facilitate this study, collaboration was estab- agree that the EACC could well complement thelished in April 2009 with the Institute for Calami- INGC study by costing the impacts and someties Management (INGC) on the biophysical adaptation options.modeling and with the Ministry of Planning andDevelopment (MPD) on the adaptation options. The second study, the Disaster Vulnerability andThis collaboration facilitated information shar- Risk Reduction Assessment (World Bank 2009a),ing, understanding of critical issues and owner- which is funded by the Global Facility for Disastership of the study. Reduction and Recovery (GFFDR) and executed by the World Bank, calculated the historical eco-This study complements three other important nomic impacts of climate shocks, droughts andstudies on climate change. The first of these is the floods. Specifically, the study made two new meth-Impact of Climate Change on Disaster Risk study odological contributions: one related to cyclonethat was financed by Denmark, UNDP and GTZ analysis (river flooding and storm surge floodingand executed by INGC. It downscaled climate are taken into account), and one on flood plainsmodels to provide information on cyclone activity modeling (digital elevation model with a resolu-and sea level rise, river hydrology and agriculture tion of 90X90 meters). The EACC used the studyland use resulting from further climate change. results on extreme events as a baseline scenario toThe INGC modeling is a world-class biophysical compare with the impacts of climate change onstudy about the possible impact of climate change extreme events.(especially extreme events). However, it did notproduce precise recommendations about possible The third study (World Bank 2009b), Makingadaptation options or any costs of climate change Transport Climate Resilient for Mozambique,impacts and adaptation options. INGC and MPD which is funded by the TFESSD and executed by
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY 3the World Bank, is part a Sub-Saharan Africa ini- demonstrate ways to integrate climate risk andtiative to respond to the impact of climate changes resilience into core development planning andon road transport. Using the same four scenarios support a range of investments to scale-up climatethan the EACC Mozambique country case study, resilience. The investments are expected to be:the third study is a detailed engineer assessment ofthe impact of climate change on roads infrastruc- ■■ Climate resilient budgeting and planning atture and of different adaptation options. central and local level, including adjustment of investment programs and capacity building;The results of the EACC Study should also pro-vide some guidance for the investment plan of ■■ Climate resilient investments in agriculture,the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR). water and transport infrastructure in the twoThe PPCR is the first program under the Stra- rural areas, including erosion and wildfire con-tegic Climate Fund (SCF) of the Climate Invest- trol, soil conservation, small scale irrigation,ment Funds (comprised of the Clean Technology water resources management, roads, roadFund and the SCF). In early 2009, the PPCR maintenance planning and hydromet, withSub-Committee agreed, on the basis of the rec- related capacity building;ommendations presented by the PPCR ExpertGroup, to invite Mozambique (as well as Niger, ■■ Climate resilient investments in one coastalZambia, Tajikistan, Bolivia, Cambodia, Bangla- city including coastal erosion control, stormdesh and Nepal) to participate in the program as water drainage and local capacity building inpilots. These programs are designed to pilot and development planning
4 T WO E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY 5Overview of theMozambican EconomyBackground the world. Life expectancy remains dismally low at 47.8 years—166th out of 172 ranked countries— and Mozambique places 169th for per capitaMozambique is widely considered to be a success- GDP, with purchasing power parity of $802/yearful example of post-conflict economic recovery in (UNDP 2009). Poverty is relatively higher in ruralSub-Saharan Africa. The country’s 16-year civil areas, and rural households are exceptionallywar, which ended in 1992, cost over a million vulnerable to natural disasters, notably droughtslives, stunted economic growth, and destroyed and floods, which Mozambicans have acutely suf-much of its infrastructure. Starting from this fered from in the past. In particular, the south-admittedly very low base, Mozambique has seen ern region of the country is the poorest—in largeaverage annual growth rates of 8 percent between part a result of its drier climate, less productive1993 and 2009. Mozambique’s high growth rates soils, and proneness to natural disasters. Factorswere accompanied by a decrease in poverty lev- contributing to these high poverty rates are a lackels, which, according to household survey data, of infrastructure (especially road access to goodsdeclined from 69 percent in 1997 to 54 percent and services), distant markets to sell agriculturalin 2003.6 In particular, extensive agricultural products, low-yielding agricultural techniques,growth in the last two decades, achieved primar- and lack of basic services (such as health care andily through expansion in the area farmed and low education rates), among many others.increases in labor input, drove this reduction inpoverty levels. Mozambique’s Human Develop- The reforms credited for spurring this povertyment Index (HDI), a measure of development reduction began in 1987 when the government ofand poverty, has increased steadily over the years Mozambique initiated pro-growth economic poli-since the end of the civil war. cies such as measures to decrease inflation and the costs of doing business, a value-added tax, removalHowever, Mozambique remains extremely poor, of price controls and import restrictions, and thewith HDI levels still well below the average Sub- privatization of many state-owned-entities. DueSaharan African level, much less than the rest of to the country’s tight monetary and fiscal policy during this time, inflation was reduced to single- digit levels (from 70 percent at the end of the civil6 World Bank. Available at <http://data.worldbank.org/country/ mozambique> war), providing a stable environment for rapid
6 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G EFigure 1 GDP Growth in Mozambique, Figure 2 GDP Composition 2001–09 in Mozambique14.0%12.0% 24%10.0% 45% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 31% 2.0% 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 SERVICES INDUSTRY AGRICULTURESource: World DataBANK, 2009 Source: CIA World Factbook, 2009economic growth. This growth was bolstered coking coal, and significant reserves of non-fuelby a significant influx of foreign investment into minerals. Most of these natural resources arethe country and high levels of donor support— (and will continue to be) exported, as is the elec-approximately equivalent to 12 percent of GDP, tricity generated by the country’s enormous andrelative to the African average of 4 percent. to-be-expanded hydropower dam, Cahora Bassa. Mozambique has four major hydropower sta-Mozambique’s economy is largely dominated by tions, of which Cahora Bassa is the largest; how-the agricultural sector, at least as far as employ- ever, there is significant scope to further development is concerned, with at least 70 percent of the Mozambique’s hydropower potential, with Elec-labor force employed in this sector.7 However, the tricidade de Mozambique estimating feasiblesector only represents 24 percent of GDP, as illus- capacity at 13,000 MW (World Bank 2007).trated below in Figure 2.The industrial sector accounts for such industries Current Growth Policiesas aluminum, petroleum products, chemicals,food, and beverages. Agricultural exports include PARPA II is the government’s second Action Plancotton, cassava, cashew nuts, sugarcane, citrus for the Reduction of Absolute Poverty (2006–09),fruits, corn, coffee, beef, and poultry, among which describes the social and economic policiesothers; fisheries (shrimp and prawn) are also an to reduce poverty and achieve economic growth.important source of exports. PARPA II aims to reduce absolute poverty and promote growth through three “pillars”: (1) pro-Mozambique also boasts abundant resources of moting good governance, (2) investing in humanfossil fuels, including natural gas, thermal and capital, and (3) stimulating economic growth by promoting rural development and improving the7 The CIA World Factbook sets this number at 81 percent in 2007. Available at: <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/ investment environment. A key focus of this last the-world-factbook/geos/mz.html> pillar is the agricultural sector, with the broad aims
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY 7of increasing productivity and access to world include further expansion of the Mozal smeltermarkets, notably with emphasis on agriculture, and the Cahora Bassa hydropower plant. In par-optimal natural resource use, and local economic ticular, due to the increasing demand for electric-development. However, poor infrastructure and ity in Mozambique and in the Southern Africanlimited access to markets are a major impediment Development Community (SADC) region in gen-to growth in this sector. eral, the development of water resources along the Zambezi River is a government priority. ThisAgriculture “boom” in mega-projects, provided it is accompa- nied by further infrastructure development, couldThe government’s second phase of the National potentially generate huge economic growth,Agricultural Programme (ProAgri II) ran from though social and environmental considerations2005 to 2009. During this time, the govern- must be taken into account.ment approved a Green Revolution Strategy forMozambique, directly targeting smallholders, as Tourismwell as larger-scale farmers, and is credited withhaving increased crop production and infrastruc- Mozambique’s tourism industry plummeted dur-ture development. Following this, a Food Produc- ing the civil war. However, this fact means thattion Action Plan for 2008–11 was approved. Now, Mozambique’s natural assets—for instance, itsa ten-year Strategic Plan for the Development of 2,700 km coastline—are mostly undeveloped.the Agricultural Sector (PEDSA) is under prepa- These pristine beaches are thus potentially highlyration to define what the Ministry of Agriculture attractive to tourists. Yet the current contributionshould do over the coming decade to increase of tourism to GDP is relatively low—data fromagricultural production (so as to reverse the coun- 2003 establish tourism as responsible for 1.2 per-try’s agricultural deficit and improve food secu- cent of national GDP (Republic of Mozambiquerity). PEDSA implementation will occur in two 2004). The government of Mozambique, recog-phases: the first phase, from 2009–11, would nizing the sector’s potential value, established ainvolve immediate anti-hunger actions (focusing separate Ministry for Tourism in 2000 and devel-on halting the increase in food prices), while the oped a Strategic Plan for the Development ofsecond phase (2011–18) would be more of a long- Tourism in 2004. The government’s current tour-term focus on achieving the Millennium Devel- ism strategy is to promote areas of high value, low-opment Goals (MDGs). To support this plan, a volume ecotourism based on the country’s wildlifeNational Irrigation Programme is currently being parks and beach resorts. Its stated vision for 2020,prepared with the aims of maintaining existing however, is to host 40 million annual visitors.irrigation schemes, rehabilitating formerly opera-tional irrigation equipment, and supporting pri-vate sector irrigation projects. Vulnerability to ClimateMegaprojects Mozambique is subject to extreme weather events that can ultimately take the form of drought,Mozambique is on the cusp of intense natu- flooding, and tropical cyclones, and ranks thirdral resource development underpinned by an among the African countries most exposed tounprecedented scale of mega-project investment, risks from multiple weather-related hazardsespecially energy mega-projects: about five or six (UNISDR 2009). During the past 50 years, theare completed or in various stages of construc- country has suffered from 68 natural disasters,tion, while about 13 more are planned. These which have killed more than 100,000 people and
8 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Eaffected up to 28 million. As much as 25 percent and impacts on the poor. Economic impacts ofof the population is at risk from natural hazards. drought seem to be most significant in ZambeziThe country’s economic performance is already Province, where production losses could rangehighly affected by frequent droughts, floods, and between $12 and $170 million for maize alone,rainfall variability. depending on the severity of the drought.Drought is the most frequent disaster. Droughts Floods in Mozambique are caused by a numbercontributed to an estimated 4,000 deaths between of geographical factors and can prevail for sev-1980 and 2000. Droughts occur primarily in the eral months, occurring most frequently in thesouthern and central regions, with a frequency southern and central regions, along river basins,of 7 in 10 and 4 in 10 years, respectively. There in low-lying regions, and in areas with poor drain-are areas in these regions classified as semi-arid age systems. They are linked not only to heavyand arid (Gaza, Inhambane, and Maputo), where rainfall but also to water drainage from rivers inrain—even when above average—is inadequate upstream neighboring countries. Water from nineand results in critical water shortages and limited major river systems—from vast areas of south-agriculture productivity. An estimated 35 percent eastern Africa—finds its way to the Indian Oceanof the population is now thought to be chronically through Mozambique. In fact, 50 percent of thefood insecure. Disaster costs to the national econ- water in Mozambique’s rivers originates fromomy have been estimated at $1.74 billion during outside the country. In 2000, Mozambique expe-1980–2003, but this largely underestimates losses rienced its worst floods in 50 years, killing about
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY 9800 people and displacing 540,000. Mozambique to coastal infrastructure as they can temporarilyis also subject to three or four cyclones every year, raise sea level as much as 5 meters. While manywhich travel up the Mozambique Channel due to of the major coastal cities of Mozambique havemonsoonal activity in the Indian Ocean, particu- infrastructure in place to stem the effects of suchlarly from January to March. an extreme event, many are in need of serious maintenance. Furthermore, Mozambique is sub-More than 60 percent of Mozambique’s popu- ject to three or four cyclones every year. In addi-lation of 22 million live in coastal areas, and is tion to the extreme wind and rainfall caused bytherefore highly vulnerable to seawater inun- these cyclones, they can exacerbate seawater inun-dation along its 2,700 km coastline. Seawater dation threats, especially that of storm surge.inundation includes saline intrusion of coastalaquifers and estuaries, beach erosion, and short A regression analysis over the period 1981–2004extreme rises in sea level due to tropical storms suggests that Mozambique’s GDP growth is cutand cyclones. Saline intrusion of the coastal aqui- by an average of 5.5 percent when a major waterfers and estuaries holds serious implications for shock occurs. Assuming a major disaster occurscoastal agriculture and fishery production. every five years, an average 1 percent of GDP is lost every year due to the impacts of waterThe issue of beach erosion is very serious, threaten- shocks World Bank 2007). In regional projec-ing coastal infrastructure such as roads and hous- tions, climate change is expected to only increaseing. In some portions of Beira, 30 to 40 meters of the frequency and magnitude of shocks andbeach have been eroded in the past 15 to 20 years, rainfall variability. As a result, droughts, floods,destroying natural mangroves and encroaching on and cyclones are likely to pose large threats tohomes and roads. Storm surges pose a huge threat Mozambique’s growth.
10 TH REE E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY 11Climate ForecastsUsing Four DifferentGeneral CirculationModel OutputsMozambique’s climatic characteristics are region- Both historic and future climate inputs specificspecific, with major differences between its north- to Mozambique and its international river basinsern and southern regions. In the northern and (such as monthly temperature and precipitation)central regions, the climate can be classified as will be used to drive the river basin and watertropical and subtropical; in contrast, steppe and resource model. Historic inputs will be gathereddry arid desert conditions exist in the south. There using the Climate Research Unit’s (CRU) globalis also a strong coastal-to-inland orographic, or monthly precipitation and temperature data,elevation gradient, effect on weather patterns in while future inputs will be taken from five generalMozambique. Weather patterns change as they circulation models (GCMs) forced with differentmove west from the southeastern, low-elevation, CO2 emission scenarios.coastal belt into the central and north-central pla-teau regions of the country. The five GCM/emission scenario pairings have been chosen to represent the total possible vari-Mozambique has a distinct rainy season lasting ability in precipitation. The NCAR-CCSMfrom October to April, with an annual average sres_a1b represents a “global wet” scenario;precipitation for the whole country of around CSIRO-MK3.0 sres_a2 represents the “global1,032 mm. Along the coast, annual rainfall is gen- dry” scenario; ukmo_hadgem1 sres_a1b repre-erally between 800 to 1,000 mm and decreases to sents the “Mozambique dry” scenario; cnrm_cm3400 mm at the border with South Africa and Zim- sres_a1b represents the “Mozambique medium”babwe. In the southern mountains, rainfall aver- scenario; and ipsl_cm4 sres_a2 represents theages between 500 and 600 mm. Inland central and “Mozambique wet” scenario. Precipitation andnorthern regions experience annual rainfall typi- temperature data acquired from these simulationscally ranging from 1,000 to 2,000 mm, resulting will be used to estimate the availability of water atfrom a combination of the northeast monsoon and a sub-basin scale.high mountains. Average annual evapotranspira-tion ranges from 800 mm along the Zimbabwean Historical climate data for each basin will be gath-border to more than 1,600 mm in the middle of ered using precipitation and temperature datathe Mozambican portion of the Zambezi basin. when available along with the Climate ResearchCoastal evapotranspiration is consistently high, Unit’s 0.5° by 0.5° global historical precipitationranging between 1,200 and 1,500 mm annually. and temperature database.
12 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table 1 GCM/emission Scenarios for EACC Scenario Characteristics Used in Global Track? Used in INGC Study?NCAR-CCSM sres_a1b Global Wet YesCSIRO-MK3.0 sres_a2 Global Dry Yes Yesukmo_hadgem1 sres_a1b Mozambique Drycnrm_cm3 sres_a1b Mozambique Mediumipsl_cm4 sres_a2 Mozambique Wet YesThe flow of information through the integrated flow calculated in WEAP may change what wasriver basin and water resource model is gener- previously put into IMPEND, thus requiring theally linear, as shown in Figure 3. Climate data are net benefits to be recalculated and their implica-entered into CLI_RUN and CLI_CROP in order tions re-modeled in WEAP.to produce stream-flow runoff estimates and cropirrigation demand estimates, respectively. Figure 3 shows all data flowing to the CGE, which implies that all useful outputs will be a product ofCLI_RUN is a two-layer, one-dimensional infiltra- the CGE. This is misleading. Every process lead-tion and runoff estimation tool that uses historic ing up to the CGE provides important outputsrunoff as a means to estimate soil characteristics. that are relevant to ongoing studies in the region.The 0.5° by 0.5° historic global runoff database Outputs from the GCMs, such as precipitationgenerated by the Global Runoff Data Center and temperature, are important to any process or(GRDC) will be used to calibrate CLI_RUN. study involving climate change. Runoff outputsCLI_CROP is a generic crop model explained in from CLI_RUN will provide information aboutthe next chapter. runoff changes related to changes in precipita- tion and temperature caused by climate change.Inflows calculated using CLI_RUN are passed to Moreover, IMPEND can estimate the monetaryIMPEND (Investment Model for Planning Ethio- tradeoffs between using water for agriculture orpian Nile Development), where storage capacity water for hydropower at a given time.and irrigation flows are optimized to maximizenet benefits. The outputs from IMPEND, along These findings will be very important to ongo-with the irrigation demands estimated from CLI_ ing studies in Mozambique, most notably theCROP, are then passed to the Water Evaluation INGC study on the “Impacts of Climate Changeand Planning System (WEAP), where water stor- on Disaster Risk in Mozambique: Main Reportage and hydropower potential are modeled based Phase II.” Previous work by INGC during Phaseon their interaction with the climate and the I of the report suggests areas of Mozambiquedemands in the river basins being modeled. where climate has the potential to impact the country’s water resources. The data accrued inFinally, this information is passed to the CGE all the steps leading up to the CGE can be usedmodel, where the economic implications of the to quantitatively estimate these potential impacts,modeled data are assessed. Within the river basin thereby providing very valuable information thatmodel there is, however, one interaction with can be used by INGC. In addition, a crop modelthe potential for nonlinearity. The interaction specific to Mozambique will be developed inbetween IMPEND and WEAP will be an itera- CLI_CROP using over 50 soil compositions astive process depending on the scenario. Reservoir well as climate data consistent with Phase I of the
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY 13 Figure 3 Flow Chart of Project Model Sequencing GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCM) TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FLOODS RIVER BASIN MODELS (CLIRUN) RUNOFF WATER RESOURCE MODELS (WRM) IRRIGATION STREAMFLOW WATER DEMAND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CROP MODELS HYDROPOWER INFRASTRUCTURE (CLICROP) MODELS (IMPEND) MODEL (CLIROAD) ENERGY ROAD NETWORK CROP YIELDS SUPPLY LENGTHJ ECONOMY-WIDE LAND INUNDATION MODEL (DCGE) FROM SEALEVEL RISE (DIVA)report. The final model will provide INGC with agriculture (chapter 4), roads/transportationa more robust estimate for irrigation demand and (chapter 5), hydropower (chapter 6), and thecrop yield potential in Mozambique as tempera- coastal zones (chapter 7). Chapter 8 looks intoture, water stress, and CO2 load change with the cyclone assessment. Each chapter presentsfuture climate. an overview of the potential climate change impacts these sectors will be subjected to, theThe following chapters examine four key sec- techniques used to model them, and potentialtors in the Mozambican economy, notably adaptation options.
14 FO UR E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY 15AgricultureBackground Table 2 Total Yield of each Crop under Study for Mozambique (tons)Mozambique’s major cash crops are sugar cane, Maize 1,326,513cotton, coconuts, sesame, tobacco, and cashews; Sorghum 507,409its major food crops are maize, sorghum, millet, Millet 108,217rice, beans, groundnuts, vegetables, and cassava. Food Rice 173,673 Crops Beans 416,750Table 28 shows the distribution (by yield in tons) of Groundnuts 285,910these eight food crops and six cash crops from the2002 inventory, which will be modeled by CliCrop. Cassava 1,024,324 Horticulture 525,564Table 3 shows the distribution of irrigation by Sugar Cane 1,940,799crop for the three regions of Mozambique in Cotton 102,7862002. The amount of irrigated cropland is esti- Tobacco 42,568 Cashmated to be less than 0.5 percent of the total crops Sesame 13,855cropland, almost all of which is used for sugar Cashews 13,119cane production; however, a portion is used togrow rice and vegetables. Coconut 44,285The Ministry of Agriculture plans to focus inthe near future on increasing the productivity of In Mozambique, an estimated 3.3 million ha offood crops in order to increase both the volume land is available for irrigation. However, onlyof food within the country and the commercial about 50,000 ha is currently irrigated. In accor-and export values of these crops. The Ministry of dance with the Ministry of Agriculture’s existingAgriculture is also interested in the production of budget to increase irrigation and the progressbiofuels from excess food production. made in recent years, the EACC study estimates that approximately 50,000 ha will be converted8 These data are drawn from surveys implemented by the agricul- from rainfed to irrigated cropland. The team is ture offices in each province and are available for at least ten also estimating an increase in maximum crop consecutive years; the latest available are from the 2006–07 season. production (irrigated) by about 1–2 percent.