Adaptation to Climate Change — Vulnerability Assessment and Economic Aspects Ministry of Foreign Affairs Government of the Netherlands Adaptation to Climate Change — Vulnerability Assessment and Economic Aspects PLURINATIONAL STATE OFThe World Bank Group1818 H Street, NWWashington, D.C. 20433 USA PLURINATIONAL STATE OF BOLIVIATel: 202 473 1000 BO LI V I AFax: 202 477 6391www.worldbank.org/eacc
ii ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSEACC Publications and Reports1. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Synthesis Report2. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Social Synthesis Report3. The Cost to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methods and EstimatesCountry Case Studies:1. Bangladesh: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change2. Bolivia: Adaptation to Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment and Economic Aspects3. Ethiopia : Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change4. Ghana: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change5. Mozambique: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change6. Samoa: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change7. Vietnam: Economics of Adaptation to Climate ChangeDiscussion Papers:1. Economics of Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events in Developing Countries2. The Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Infrastructure3. Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change4. Costs of Agriculture Adaptation to Climate Change5. Cost of Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change6. Costs of Adaptation Related to Industrial and Municipal Water Supply and Riverine Flood Protection7. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change-Ecosystem Services8. Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Global Hydrology and Water Availability9. Climate Change Scenarios and Climate Data10. Economics of Coastal Zone Adaptation to Climate Change11. Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Human Health in Developing Countries12. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh13. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bolivia14. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia15. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ghana16. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique17. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Vietnam18. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Identifying Pro-Poor Adaptation Options19. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Pro-Poor Adaptation: Capacity Development Manual
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY iA Pilot Study of theEconomics of Adaptationto Climate ChangePLURINATIONAL STATE OFBO L IV IA Ministry of Foreign Affairs Government of the Netherlands
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY iiiContentsAcronyms ixAcknowledgments xiExecutive Summary xiii1. Motivation and Context of the Study 1Background 1Scope and Study Approach 22. Background on Bolivia’s Economy 5The Socioeconomic Context 5The Institutional Context 63. Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Climate Change 11Exposure to Extreme Events 12Coping Strategies and Current Climate Variability 14Assessment of Climate Change Impacts under Future Uncertainty 184. Sector Analysis: Agriculture 21Sector Description 21Impact and Vulnerability to Climate Change of the Agriculture Sector 22Adaptation Options for Crop Production 275. Sector Analysis: Water Resources 33Sector Description 33Vulnerability of Water Resources Infrastructure to Climate Change 35Adaptation Options: Rural Water Resources 36Adaptation Options: Irrigation Infrastructure 40Estimated Costs of Structural Adaptation Measures for Irrigation 42Water Supply and Sanitation in Urban Areas 46
iv ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS6. Local-level Perspectives on Adaptation to Climate Change 53Past Adaptation and Coping Practices 547. Cost-benefit Analysis of Adaptation Investment Options 618. Methodology Investment Planning Tool (MIP)for the Selection of Adaptation Options under Future Climate Uncertainty 65Selection of Robust Strategies 65Model Analysis 69How Welfare is Lost 74How Welfare is Restored 74The Effect of Discounting 759. Overall Conclusions and Lessons Learned 81Social Dimensions of Climate Change 81Agriculture 82Water Resources 84Investment Planning Tool 87How to Move Forward? 8710. Works Cited 90Annexes (available on line at www.worldbank.org/eacc)AnnexesAnnex 1: Assessment of Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Actions for the Water Resources of BoliviaAnnex 2: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures Regarding Production of Four Crops of High Importance for the Bolivian Economy (in Spanish)Annex 3: National Irrigation Program, Mizque Basin, 2004–14-Viceminister of Water Management and Irrigation (in Spanish)Annex 4: Adaptation to Climate Change for the Water Resources Infrastructure and Irrigation Management (in Spanish)Annex 5: Social Perspectives of Climate Change and Adaptation in Bolivia (in Spanish)
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY vFigures1. Average Annual Precipitation in Bolivia 1951-2002 122: Most Vulnerable Municipalities Selected by Macro-region 133. Small and Poor Countries Financially Vulnerable to Extreme Weather Events 144. Annual Percentage Change of Agriculture GDP with the Effect of El Niño and La Niña Years 175. Projected Precipitation Changes to 2050 Under Different Climate Scenarios 196. Regional Distribution of Four Crop Cultivation 217. Estimated Changes in Annual Evapotranspiration Under Three Different 24 Climate Conditions for Ten Weather Stations Up to 2050 8. Relative Yield of Quinoa for Three Climate Scenarios and a Scenario 25 with No Precipitation in the Critical Phenological Period (Ratio of Simulated 2050 to Historical Yield) 9. Relative Yields of Three Potato Varieties for Three Climate Scenarios 26 and a Scenario with No Precipitation During the Critical Phenological Period (Ratio Simulated 2050 to Historical) 10. Relative Soy Yield for Three Climate Scenarios and a Scenario with No Precipitation 27 in the Critical Phenological Period (Ratio Simulated 2050 to Historical Yield) 11. Relative Maize Yield for Three Climate Scenarios (Ratio Simulated 2050 to Historical) 2712. Projected Water Availability Index by 2050: Current, Wet, and Dry Scenarios 3413. Water Demand by Sector at Year 2000 and 2050 3614. Adaptation Strategies Aand Measures 4315. Water Supply vs. Cost—Dams 4416. Socioeconomic Strata of Local Communities 5417. Past Responses to Climate Events 5418. Distribution of Calculated Internal Rates of Return (IRR) on 74 Irrigation 67 Pronar Projects 19. Tradeoff Between Social Benefits and Families Affected (Estimated Budget=$6 Million) 7020. Tradeoff Between Social Benefits and Families Affected (Budget=$4 Million) 7021. Tradeoff Between Social Benefits and Families Affected (Budget=$2 Million) 7122. Baseline Scenario (Current Climate in 2090) 7223. Future Climate in 2090 Under a Dry Scenario 7224. How Social Welfare is Restored (Centralized Management, 0% Discount Rate) 7325. Capacity Utilization of Projects 56 and 62 Under Dry Scenario 7426. Cash Flow of Investment Programs Having Equal Social Benefits 75 (Dry Scenario, 0% Discount Rate) 27. Restoring Welfare (Centralized Management, 6% Discount Rate) 7628. Cash Flow of Investment Programs Having Equal Social Benefits 7729. Strategic Components for Water Management 85
vi ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSTablesEs-1. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Measures in the Agriculture and Water Sectors xviii1. Direct and Indirect Effects of Drought on Local Populations 162. Economic Impact of the El Niño Events Since 1983 173. Summary of Main Climatic Characteristics of the Bolivia Wet and Dry Scenario 194. Vulnerability of Crops to the Main Climatic Stresses, Under Present and Future Conditions 235. Adaptation Strategy of the Contorno Calacoto Community 286. Economic, Social, and Environmental Costs for the Implementation of Adaptation Options in Four Crops 297. Economic, Social and Environmental Benefits for the Implementation of Adaptation Options in Four Crops 298. Social and Environmental Viability of Adaptation Options in Four Crops 309. Examples of Measures for Best Use of Existing Water Resources 3910. Examples of Rainwater Harvesting 3911. Examples of Improvement or Expansion of Existing Systems 4012. Seasonality in Irrigation Systems (Hectares) 4013. Summary of Infrastructure Costs 4414. Changes in Water Supply for Dry and Wet Climate Scenarios of 2050 4515. Projected Annual Irrigation Water Demand in 2050 4516. Total Accumulated Deficit of Water for Irrigation 4617. Total Estimated Costs for Water Infrastructure Needs to 2050 4618. Adaptation Cost for Climate Change Scenarios 4719. Key Climate Variables in Relation to the Urban Sector 4820. Number of Municipalities Studied for the Social Component, by Macro-Region 5321. Prioritized Adaptation Strategies (Planned and Autonomous) by Community in the Plains Region 5622. Prioritized Adaptation Measures by Community in the Altiplano Region 5723. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Measures in the Agriculture 62 and Water Resources Sectors 24. The Effect of Climate Change on Social Benefits of the Pronar Investment Program 69 in the Mizque Watershed (6% Discount Rate, NPV in $ Millions) BoxesES-1. The Mizque Watershed Mixed Integer Programming Investment Model xx1. Access to International Funds for Adaptation: Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) 82. Agriculture Insurance 313. Rio Los Negros, Bolivia –Beehives and Barbed Wire 384. Limitations of the Study 88
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P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY ixAcronymsAAPS Auditing and Social Control Authority of Water Supply and SanitationANESAPA National Association of Water Supply and Sanitation UtilitiesCAF Andean Development CorporationCEPAL Economic Commission for Latin America and the CaribbeanCRU Climate Research Unit (University of East Anglia, U.K.)CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganizationEACC Economics of Adaptation to Climate ChangeENSO El Niño Southern OscillationGCM General Circulation ModelIHH Institute of Hydraulics and HydrologyINE National Institute of StatisticsIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIWRM Integrated Water Resources ManagementMNACC National Mechanism for Adaptation to Climate ChangePNC National Watershed PlanPNCC National Program for Climate ChangePNRR National Rehabilitation and Reconstruction PlanPNSB National Basic Sanitation PlanSENAMHI National Meteorological and Hydraulics ServiceSRES Special Report on Emissions ScenariosSWAT Soil and Water Assessment ToolUDAPE Social and Economic Policy Analysis UnitVIDECICODE Vice Ministry of Civil Defense and Cooperation for DevelopmentWFP World Food ProgramNote: Unless otherwise noted, all dollars are U.S. dollars.
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P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY xiAcknowledgmentsThis study was undertaken by a World Bank core Policy Analysis (UDAPE-spanish acronyms) for theteam that included Ana Bucher (country coordina- provision of data, local information, guidance, andtor), Carina Bachofen, Robert Schneider, Laurent support in the development of the report.Cretegny, David Corderi, Morten Blomqvist, andRuth Llanos. This synthesis report was written and The team is grateful to the following people for vitaledited by Ana Bucher and Carina Bachofen. The inputs, reviews, and criticisms of the project: Viceoverall EACC study was coordinated by Sergio Minister of Environment, Biodiversity, and ClimateMargulis (Task Team Leader). Change Juan Pablo Ramos, Ing. Jaime Villanueva (Director PNCC), Lic. Ivy Beltran (PNCC), Ing. JoseThe report draws on the work of many local part- Gutierrez (PNCC), Lic. Daniel Vargas (VDP), Har-ners and individuals who prepared separate sector ley Rodriguez (VIPFE), and Lic. Fernando Carrascochapters. The agriculture chapter was developed by (VIPFE). In addition, strong support was provided bya team including Dr. Magali García Cárdenas (team the local donor community, which is represented byleader, Facultad de Agronomia, Universidad Mayor Mr. Fernando Mendez (British Embassy-DFID), Mr.de San Andres (UMSA)), Ing. Jorge Cusicanqui Eugster Sebastian (Swiss Cooperation-COSUDE),(Facultad de Agronomía, UMSA), Dr. Bruno Con- and Mr. Rob van den Boom (The Netherlandsdori Alí (Fundación PROINPA), Victoria Parra Goi- Embassy).tia (UMSA), Ing. Gladys Tesoro Michel (UMSA),Ing. Claudia Saavedra (UMSA), Dr. Carmen Rosa The EACC team is extremely grateful to all theDel Castillo Gutierrez (UMSA), Ing. Consuelo members of the World Bank Latin America andLuna (UMSA), Ing. Claudia Canedo (UMSA), and Caribbean region and the Bolivia Office for its con-Ing. Carlos Cabrera (UMSA). The water resources tinued support in the development of the study. Inchapter was prepared by Dr. Victor Vazquez and particular, we would like to express our gratitudeIng. Alvaro Lambert. The social studies chapter to Oscar Avalle (Country Manager), Maria Elenawas prepared by Lic. Miguel Morales. Cost-benefit Soria, Ruth Llanos, and Morten Blomqvist, for theiranalysis was written by Dr. Fernando Cossio and extensive contributions to the development andLic. Valeria Sanchez (Institución Internacional de review of the report. We could not have completedEconomía y Empresa, IIDEE). The author of the this work without the continuous logistical supportmodeling work for the planning investment tool was provided by Monica Torrelio, Rosario Monroy, andErwin Kalvelagen. Monica Claros (Bolivia country office), Hawanty Page (ENV), and Grace Aguilar (ENV).The study team would also like to thank the gov-ernment of the Plurinational State of Bolivia and The report has benefited greatly from peer reviewin particular, the Vice Ministry of Environment, comments and other feedback from World BankBiodiversity, and Climate Change, the National staff, including Maximiliam Ashwill (LCSSO),Program for Climate Change (PNCC-spanish acro- Dilma Flores (ETWAN) Jorge Treviño (LCSAR),nyms), the Vice Ministry of Planning and External and Erwin de Nys (LCSEN), as well as from externalFinance (VIPFE), Vice Ministry of Development peer reviewers, including Joel Smith (Stratus Con-and Planning (VDP), and Unit for Socioeconomic sulting) and Gordon Hughes (consultant).
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P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY xiiiExecutive SummaryContext efforts to adapt to climate variability and change. For example:The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change(EACC) study estimates that it will cost $75 – $100 ■■ The Bolivian population has always beenbillion each year for developing countries to adapt exposed to hydrometeorological extremes andto climate change from 2010 to 2050 (World Bank climate variability, particularly because of2009a). The study —funded by the governments the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscil-of the Netherlands, United Kingdom, and Swit- lation (ENSO), which—regardless of climatezerland—has two specific objectives. The first is change—occurs periodically in different areasto develop a “global” estimate of adaptation costs across the country.to inform the international community’s efforts onhow to tailor adequate and sustainable support ■■ Floods, landslides, and droughts, all of whichregarding new and additional resources to help have serious implications for food securityvulnerable developing countries meet adaptation and water supply, are common climate-costs. The second objective is to support decision related events.makers in developing countries to better evaluateand assess the risks posed by climate change and to ■■ Its economic mainstays—mining and hydro-better design strategies to adapt to climate change. carbon extraction—suggest it is relatively insensitive to climate change, yet most ofThe EACC study includes a global track to meet its people are engaged in small-scale agri-the first study objective and a case study track culture and are quite vulnerable to changesto meet the second objective. The country track in climate.comprises seven countries: Ethiopia, Mozam-bique, Ghana, Bangladesh, Vietnam, The Pluri- ■■ Climate projections suggest changes in mostnational State of Bolivia, and Samoa. precipitation patterns with a possible extended dry season, weakened early onset of rains, andScope and Background more intense rainy seasons. However, vari- ability in precipitation estimates across climateBolivia—known formally as the Plurinational models is still very large and with limited vali-State of Bolivia—faces a complex challenge in its dation with local data.
xiv ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSThese characteristics were important factors in Based on the government’s recommendation andthe design and development of the study, whose adjustment to the Bolivian context, the study pro-objective was to support existing efforts for the vides new insights on models and tools that canimplementation of a national adaptation strat- help estimate potential climate impacts and theegy in the country. For this purpose, the study cost of adaptation options. Further, new meth-evaluated a range of adaptation options for two odologies are tested and recommendations pre-of the most vulnerable sectors in Bolivia: agri- sented regarding areas where additional research,culture (crop production of potato, quinoa, soy, data, and capacity is needed to enhance adap-and maize) and water (irrigation infrastructure tation action plans. Finally, the study highlightsand urban sanitation). In addition, a social com- robust climate actions that could be implementedponent complemented the analysis and shed under any future scenarios despite uncertainties.light on the distributional implications of differ- Given the worldwide political importance ofent adaptation options on poor and vulnerable climate change, the findings of this study havegroups. A new development planning tool and great interest and relevance for policy making.climate change—based on a series of environ- The report, therefore, is aimed at a very broadmental, social and economic inputs— provides a audience, although it is primarily written havingnew resource for decision makers to sequence and policy-makers in mind.prioritize identified adaptation options. The studydemonstrates the use of the tool by evaluating, at Key conclusions may contribute to the deploy-a watershed level, the feasibility and robustness ment of new methodologies and actions inof planned investments under projected climate relation to a climate resilient growth in Bolivia.change scenarios. However, the findings and results of the study do not necessarily reflect the opinion or views of theThe study’s authors have engaged and main- government of Bolivia and are solely based ontained a dialogue with the local government to scientific results.assure alignment with the local needs and inter-ests. This process meant an expansion of the Bolivia’s vulnerability tosocial vulnerability study, a reduction of the eval- climate changeuation of adaptation costs and a modification ofthe scale of analysis for the socioeconomic invest- Insufficient national meteorological data and pro-ment planning tool. Further, although national found differences between different global hydro-aggregated costs of adaptation actions were ini- meteorological models make climate adaptationtially defined as one of the study’s main objec- uncertain. At present, climate science does nottives, the Bolivian government did not consider provide sufficiently reliable ways of determiningthese estimates very useful at this time, in part whether dry or wet scenarios are more likely, so thebecause of existing data limitations and difficul- fundamental goal of adaptation must be to investties in capturing the ecological and cultural diver- in building resilience to manage risk under a rangesity of the country, thus resulting in too many of possible outcomes. Resilience to weather shocksuncertainties in the quality and aggregation of is a high priority irrespective of climate change.sector data. The Government’s interest focusedpredominantly on the new knowledge the study Within the last few decades, climate analysis fromgenerated about adaptation measures in the agri- El Niño and La Niña events suggests increas-culture, social, and water sectors, as well as on ing trends in the occurrence and intensity ofthe formulation of development planning tools these events. In Bolivia, the accumulation ofthat integrate adaptation options. these events within shorter time frames can easily
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY xvthreaten development-as-usual patterns, given the 2.41˚C and a decrease in precipitation of -19 per-public sector’s serious financial limitations. This cent averaged across the Bolivian territory. Highervulnerability underscores the need for developing temperatures and fewer frosts will probably stimu-adaptation strategies that increase Bolivia’s resil- late agricultural production in the Altiplano andience against future climate disasters and promote the valleys. The key uncertainties concern the totalsustainable development (World Development amount, timing, and intensity of precipitation. IfReport, World Bank 2010). The understanding the dry scenarios are correct, then the benefits ofof local vulnerability can present new information higher temperatures will be more than offset byregarding additional costs of adaptation actions more frequent and severe periods of low rainfall –and the needs for adequate and sustainable sup- especially in the southwest, together with an uncer-port (from international as well as national sources) tain effect in the north. On the other hand, if theto facilitate implementation of robust adaptation wet scenarios are correct, then agricultural yieldsinterventions and increase climate resilience. should increase throughout much of the country, but this would require upgrades in infrastruc-Though Bolivia’s overall economy appears to be ture (flood control, water storage, and irrigation)relatively climate resilient due to the high impor- together with improved agricultural practices.tance of hydrocarbon and mineral extraction inthe economy, a relatively small percentage of the Finally, climate change will not only affect ruraltotal population is engaged in this sector. A large areas. Several major cities located in the upperportion of the country’s population is extremely watersheds in the Altiplano and valley regions—vulnerable to the effects of climate change, as such as La Paz-El Alto, Sucre, Potosí and Cocha-it relies on subsistence agricultural production. bamba—are significantly vulnerable to climateApproximately 30 percent of Bolivia’s rural popu- variability and water scarcity. These cities arelation resides in the valleys and high plateau areas, highly exposed to decreasing rainfall trends,where water availability is already problematic. In unexpected changes in seasonality, and prolongedaddition, these communities have limited means to droughts. The case of La Paz-El Alto is partic-cover the costs of adaptation. For the majority of ularly alarming due to the melting of the Cha-the population, the impact of climate change on caltaya and Tuni-Condoriri glacier, which willBolivia’s development and welfare is thus highly reduce natural water supply, adding more stressuncertain. Under most scenarios, subsistence to a system where demand has already matchedfarmers and other poor households are likely to be supply. The water supply system of La Paz-El Altomost affected by changes in weather variability and suffered a scarcity alert in the wet season of 2008water availability associated with climate change. that was repeated in the fall of 2009. EmergencyUncertainty is greatest for the particularly vulner- measures, such as drilling wells were implementedable rural populations in the Altiplano. to be able to meet demand levels in those periods. However, there is no information on groundwaterThe study considers two extreme climate scenarios resources and recharging capacity of the aquifers.in terms of water availability in order to simulate Water shortages have already incited social con-the range of worst-case scenarios, assuming that flicts in Cochabamba, Sucre, and Tarija.any possible changes in the Bolivian climate arelikely to occur somewhere between these two. The Potential to adapt – strategies forwet scenario for Bolivia forecasts an average tem- the water and agriculture sectorsperature increase of 1.55˚C and an annual meanprecipitation increase of +22 percent, whereas The study in Bolivia primarily looked at the agri-the dry scenario shows a temperature increase of cultural and water sectors. Even though the focus
xvi ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSis mainly economic, political and institutional Under the wet scenarios, there will be an increaseissues play a central role in understanding and in flooding, especially in the valleys and the east-identifying solutions to some of the major adap- ern lowlands. Reforestation, development of sys-tation challenges. Without fundamental improve- tems for flood warnings, and disaster preventionments in the policies and institutions that finance, can all reduce the economic and social costs ofmaintain, and invest in the water and agriculture flooding in lowland areas.sectors, additional resources aimed at buildingresilience are not likely to be effective in the long The causes of current urban water shortages inrun. Adaptation in Bolivia must go hand-in-hand Bolivia, a major social and economic problem,with development. are complex, involving serious problems of insti- tutional instability, under-financing, and poorWater management and irrigation demand management. Climate change exacer-Investment in better water management will bates this scenario. As discussed in the urban waterenhance the resilience of Bolivian farmers both section, the main adaptation need for rural andto systematic changes associated with annual peri-urban populations concerns their need forlevels of rainfall, as well as greater year-to-year increased access to water and sanitation services.1volatility in the rainfall patterns. Improved water A priority measure will be to extend existing urbanmanagement practices are conducive to smart networks to the peri-urban areas with no accessdevelopment even in the absence of climate to water and sanitation services. Rapid growthchange; thus, this type of no-regrets investment of these areas needs to be planned in advance towill make sense given the prevailing uncertainty ensure adequate service (qualitative classificationabout future climate change. Yet the level and of each adaptation measure mentioned above islocation of investment must take account of further described in Annex 1: Climate Changeongoing changes in agricultural productivity Impacts and Adaptation on Water Resources).within the country, so investments are allocated The guiding principle to adaptation in the urbanto meet future patterns of production rather areas should be, as for rural areas, to develop at athan based on historical patterns. faster rate and enhance proactive measures such as increased maintenance of infrastructure and lessWater storage and harvesting is crucial to increase restoration needs. In addition, it would be advisableirrigation coverage in the agricultural sector. Irri- to consider the integration of “economics aspectsgation is the major source of water consumption of climate change” within new terms of reference(84 percent of all water resources) and is supposed for development plans (i.e. modification of the fiveto increase in the future due to current agriculture master plans for urban sanitation in Bolivia). Thisexpansion plans. However, the efficiency of tra- calls not only for increased investments but alsoditional irrigation systems is relatively low. While institutional capacity and governance in order towater resources are abundant for the whole coun- speed up investments based on solid data, investi-try, improving storage efficiency in wet periods gation, and planning.to meet irrigation demand in deficit areas—suchas the south of the Altiplano and El Chaco—is Agricultureessential. Improvements in irrigation need to be The crops analyzed were quinoa, potato, maize andaccompanied by better overall management of soy. These crops are cultivated from the Altiplanowater resources, including improved integrated to regions at lower elevations. All four crops, espe-watershed management in deficit watersheds, cially maize and potatoes are important sources ofwhere resource competition between rural andurban populations is likely to increase. 1 See urban water section of Annex 1.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY xviicalories in the diet of an average family. Soy is, of methods of growing existing crops—with agri-course, a major export crop and consequently fun- cultural extension and education to disseminatedamental to the economy of Santa Cruz, as soy and facilitate the adoption of new technologies.exports accounts for 30 percent of Bolivia’s GDP. Again, a substantial commitment to agriculturalAnalysis of the potential effect of climate change R&D and extension would form an importanton crop yields revealed mixed results. The study component of any development strategy focus-estimates that Bolivia’s agriculture sector under ing on the needs of rural communities withouta wet climate scenario would benefit significantly any consideration of climate change. The keyfrom a warmer and wetter climate. Under such requirement may be to ensure that the focus ofa scenario, yields for maize and soybeans, would R&D and extension is on reinforcing the capac-increase 40 to 45 percent, and potatoes and qui- ity of farmers to respond to climate variability innoa yields would increase 60 to 90 percent. How- the short and longer term, as well as to be pre-ever, water availability at the early planting stages pared for the requirements of climate conditionsremains the key limiting factor. The expected crop in 2050, rather than those of 2000.yield losses from a drier climate are lower that thegains from a wetter and hotter climate. Economic aspects of adapting to climate changeOn the other hand, the dry scenarios would leadto a reduction in agricultural yields in the Alti- Based on the identified needs in the agriculturalplano, the valleys, and the El Chaco regions. The and water sector to improve access to irrigationeffects of less rainfall and higher evaporation and decrease water shortage as key adaptationcould only be offset by (a) a substantial investment interventions, three different economic assess-in water storage and irrigation infrastructure, and ments were made regarding the costs, benefits(b) the adoption of more drought-resistant vari- and sequencing of alternative adaptation mea-eties and crops in the lowlands. Potential losses sures at different levels.under a dry climate scenario are projected to beapproximately 25 percent for maize and 10–15 The first exercise assessed the robustness of plan-percent for soybeans, potatoes, and quinoa. These ning investments in the water sector by evaluatingresults are driven by the agricultural benefits of costs and benefits of Government selected projectsa warmer, more frost-free climate. They suggest that reflect types of adaptation measures for agri-that rapid and timely implementation of irriga- culture and water resources previously identifiedtion (at least at the initial phases of crop devel- under the National Adaptation Plan for Bolivia.opment) would be even more attractive under a Projects were selected primarily based on the avail-scenario of warmer climate. In both a wet and ability of data and regional distribution. Waterdry climate scenario, access to irrigation is a key projects included water supply and water man-adaptation intervention to reduce the vulnerabil- agement, and the agricultural consisted primarilyity to the increased climate variability, including a of irrigation projects. The analysis was made inshorter rainy season, droughts, and expected dry terms of financial (market) values and in socio-spells during the rainy season. economic terms (shadow prices), and integrated climate change variables (temperature and precipi-Another important area of adaptation concerns tation) under a dry (worst case) and a no changethe combination of agricultural R&D and imple- climate scenario in 2050.2 The objective was notmentation and transfer of new technologies— to evaluate the projects themselves, but rather theirparticularly the development of new crops andvarieties as well as the validation of improved 2 A wet scenario was not available at the time of the analysis
xviii ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Table ES-1 Cost-benefit analysis of adaptation measures in the agriculture and water sectors Investment Project Costs (000) Beneficiaries NPV1 (000) IRR (%) NPV1 (000) IRR (%) Baseline Dry scenario WATER Distribution in Sapecho 3,440 2,199 persons 3,428 24 3,331 24 Potable water S.P. Cogotay 408 140 persons 8 13 3 13 Well drills Chapicollo 317 50 families 187 17 151 17 Flood Control Caranavi 4,052 528 houses 2,658 22 2,658 22 AGRICULTURE Irrigation dam S.P.Aiquile 11,476 147 ha 2,583 16 4,195 18 Dam restoration Tacagua 313,623 907 ha (184,275) 3 (171,580) 3 Wall elevation Tacagua dam 120,457 907 ha 9,705 14 21,563 16 Irrigation B.Retiro S Paraisito 3,686 178 ha 17,260 71 14,874 63 Catchment Atajados/Aiquile 1,951 32 ha 115 14 347 16 1 NPV = Net present value Note: parenthesis values indicate a negative NPV, suggesting that the dam restoration project is not economically feasible in this location.economic feasibility and robustness as appropri- However, the selection of projects is limited toate adaptation measures to climate variability in rural areas due to data availability at the time ofBolivia (Table ES-1). this analysis. It excludes the larger infrastructure projects in urban areas as these projects are usu-Under a dry scenario, the results suggest that the ally excluded from national budgets and mostlyAltiplano will be favored by increased tempera- financed by international cooperation.tures, while the oriental and Chaco zones will benegatively affected by increased temperatures and The second exercise considered the possible effectreduced precipitation. These results are in accor- of climate change on a planned long-term irri-dance with the spatial distribution of the projects gation program at the watershed level (Nationalwhere, depending on the area, the Internal Rate Watershed Program—the Spanish acronym isof Return (IRR) is reduced due to these regional PNC). The exercise evaluated the cost of providingimpacts. The agriculture projects show a slight the required level of additional water storage infra-increase of the IRR under the climate change sce- structure to meet PNC’s planned irrigation expan-nario in the highland zones (except the B.R. Parais- sion to 2011 and estimated up to 2050. This wasito project). This suggests that current planned based on an analysis of water deficit and water sur-investment in agriculture and water resources con- plus months, and therefore the necessity and poten-tinue to be robust to climate change at least under tial to reallocate additional water through storageextreme conditions. Thus, current adaptation mea- under a wet and a dry extreme climate scenario.sures in Bolivia represent primarily good develop- The estimated cost of the additional waterment strategies under climate variability. storage required to match future monthly water deficits due to climate change, wouldThe cost benefit analysis illustrates the use of an be of additional $12 million to the pro-economic tool for the evaluation of robustness jected baseline (no climate change) of irri-of investment projects under a changing climate. gation needs by 2050 under the wet climate
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY xixscenario, and an additional $60 million proved unfeasible. The challenge to use similarunder the dry climate scenario. approaches to determine the optimal timing of adaptation projects in all sector remains.The third exercise explored the effect of climatechange on PNC’s planned investment program Local-level perspectives onfor the Mizque watershed through the application adaptation to climate changeof a mixed integer mathematical programmingmodel (MIP). The Mizque watershed PNC study The populations most vulnerable to climate changeinvestigated climate change, climate uncertainty, are the poorest, who generally reside in dry zonesand decentralization budget policy on the poten- (central and southern Altiplano, valleys and plains),tial benefits of the PMIC-Mizque. This is a water- and along riverbeds in lowland areas. Their liveli-shed that has been identified as being particularly hoods are based on rainfed agriculture, extensivesusceptible to climate effects by impact analysis. livestock farming, forest harvesting, hunting, and fishing. The livelihood of these local communitiesWithin the assessment, allowing for climate depends on the climate. They have few alterna-change impacts appears to modify the original tives to diversify their income, and no economicdevelopment plan and implies a significant reduc- resources to invest in adaptation preventive actionstion in the return on the program under at least and infrastructure. Results from the social compo-one scenario. The investment model tool identi- nent reveals that communities perceive the climatefied the most vulnerable population, and how to is getting hotter, the weather is more unpredictable,restore watershed-level benefits to their baseline and almost everyone emphasizes that rainy seasonslevels through accelerated investment. However, are shorter than previous decades. In other words,ensuring that additional watershed benefits reach the communities did not see climate change as athose suffering directly from water shortages is future scenario but as already occurring.more difficult. This type of planning model per-mits a detailed comparison of investment alterna- Rural and indigenous communities have a longtives and the potential effect of climate change on and rich history of systematic observation of thethem—and it does so within a planning frame- climate; indeed, their survival depends on thiswork that is consistent over time. The approach capacity. Climate change and increasing climatealso facilitates investigation of the robustness of variability mean that many of the climatic indi-alternative investment strategies to possible cli- cators (i.e. shift in crop calendars) used by thesemate outcomes, something that is particularly communities are becoming less effective, so thatimportant in view of the uncertainty over possible people are in need of new indicators (access toclimate outcomes (Box ES-1). historical climate trends and projections) to diag- nose and predict future variability.Lastly, it is important to note that the originalintent was to use the Bolivia study to do a much The social component of the EACC Bolivia studymore ambitious exercise—to use the same math- aimed to (a) identify how the impacts of climateematical modeling to identify the economically change will affect the poorest and most vulner-optimal timing of different adaptation projects, in able populations in Bolivia; (b) better understanddifferent sectors, all competing for resources from how the most vulnerable communities perceivea constrained budget. As this more ambitious climate change and what, in their view, wouldexercise started, the team immediately was con- be the most appropriate adaptation measures tofronted with an immense requirement for data, strengthen the resilience of these populations;including the costs of a range of projects, and this and (c) understand what types of public policies
xx ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Box ES-1 The Mizque Watershed Mixed Integer Programming Investment ModelThrough the application of a mixed integer mathematical programming model (MIP), the Mizque watershedstudy evaluates the effect of climate change on the government’s potential investment program as identifiedby the PMIC-Mizque study. Seventy-four investment projects in 22 sub-basins were considered, each having aninitial investment cost-- Operation & Maintenance assumed at 1 percent per year of initial investment-- and netfarmer revenue based on sub-basin cropping patterns. New projects and rehabilitation of existing projects com-pete for budgetary resources, each requiring a quantity of irrigation water determined by the cropping pattern.Existing projects include competing needs between irrigation projects, potable water, and livestock. Availablewater is adjusted for climate change under three scenarios: a baseline scenario that maps out current climateand water availability, a “dry” scenario, and a “wet” scenario. In optimizing the sequencing of investmentthrough time, projects can be built or rehabilitated any time up to 2050. Projects can also be built and not usedto full capacity if, for example, water becomes constraining toward the end of the 40-year investment horizon.This study is now available for government’s use and adaptation to other circumstances. Importantly, the studymethodology is completely transparent and is a straightforward extension of the work already undertaken bygovernment and donors. The model permits analysis of the effect of (a) discount rates (or benefit/cost cut-offrates); (b) centralized vs decentralized budget management, and (c) climate change. In its current form, themodel exercise can investigate either maximizing net social benefits or the number of families benefited. Themain findings of the model are:n Effect of climate change effect on the investment plan. Relative to the current climate, the effect of a “dry” future climate scenario would be to reduce the potential social benefits of the PMIC-Mizque irrigation pro- gram by 3–5 percent. The effect of the “wet” future scenario would be to increase benefits by 1–3 percent, as more water would be available for irrigation. These results vary somewhat at different levels of the budget constraint and between a decentralized versus a centralized management policy.n Effect of decentralized budget management effect on investment plan. In the Mizque watershed, decen- tralized budgets to the sub-basin level could reduce potential benefits significantly if no overall coordination and planning is established at the watershed level. This is the case whether the objective of the model is to maximize national social benefits or to maximize the number of families benefiting. The MIP model estimates that decentralized budgeting reduces social benefits and/or the number of families directly benefiting from the projects by between 2 percent and 30 percent. Under a tight budget and a policy to maximize employ- ment (instead of maximizing social benefits), decentralized management within sub-watersheds reduces the number of families receiving irrigation by nearly 20 percent. In the budgetary decentralized modeled scenarios, per capita investment was held constant across sub-watersheds and the model picked the best projects in each sub-watershed. In the centralized scenarios, the best projects were chosen regardless of where they were located in the watershed. Imposing a cost-benefit limit on projects significantly reduced the difference between the centralized and decentralized simulations. Coordination among decentralized and centralized budgetary policies is needed to ensure best use of resources and diminish potential competition for water resources.n Effect of uncertainty of climate change effect on investment plan. This study found that most of the poten- tial irrigation investment in the Mizque river watershed is robust to most climate outcomes, and that farther downstream in the watershed annual rainfall would remain sufficient for nearly all the irrigation projects identified in the PMIC-Mizque study, assuming sufficient storage was built as part of the program.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY xxiand political process would be best-suited to sup- The study has emphasized the need to accelerateport preferred adaptation strategies. the development agenda, as in most cases, good development policies are the most robust adapta-Communities in the Altiplano and valleys gave tion policies.priority to adaptation measures related to watermanagement, followed by improved agricultural ■■ Selected adaptation strategies and actions should beand livestock practices. They view drought as the robust under both wet and dry conditions. In par-principle threat to their livelihoods. In contrast, ticular, expanded water storage, watershedcommunities from the Chaco and plains regions management in increasingly dry areas, andasserted that improved agricultural practices were improved access to irrigation have been high-a priority, and considered water management lighted as key adaptation options that increasemeasures to be of secondary importance. resilience to current and future climate vari- ability and trends.Complementary investments in both hard (newinfrastructure) and soft (safety nets, capacity build- ■■ Strengthen integrated rural water management anding, knowledge sharing) adaptation options will improve water storage capacity. Strong integratedbe vital to meet the needs of the most vulner- management at the watershed level is neededable. Improving extension services and increasing to allow for increased water storage capacityaccess to markets, for example, will be needed to (including building of new infrastructure) andcomplement the development of hard adaptation avoid conflicts over competing needs. Cur-measures such as the construction of infrastruc- rent storage infrastructure needs to be revised,ture. Although soft adaptation measures require upgraded, and increased. Water storage andsignificant investments up front, they offer more harvesting is necessary to increase irrigationsocially and environmentally sustainable benefits coverage in the agricultural sector.in the longer term. Also, given Bolivia’s rich cul-tural diversity it will be important to combine tra- ■■ Improve urban water sanitation and water supply,ditional adaptation knowledge with new methods including fundamental improvements in theto identify priorities. Local authorities tend to favor institutions that finance, maintains, and investinvestment in discrete, hard measures, while com- in water supply to effectively adapt to themunity members tend to favor more comprehen- fluctuating changes in supply and demand ofsive strategies that support more profound changes resources due to climate variability.to livelihood systems threatened by climate change.Planning across scales of governance, respecting ■■ Improve access to irrigation. Under both wet andexisting community decision-making structures, dry climate scenarios, improved access to irri-and aligning interests to ensure policy cohesion will gation is essential to manage shorter rainy sea-be necessary for effective adaptation, particularly sons, droughts, and expected dry spells. Evengiven Bolivia’s unique system of decentralization. in the more optimistic scenario of future wetter conditions, agricultural productivity can onlyRecommendations for an increase if the capacity to store and use theAction Agenda needed additional water is available for farm- ers during critical growing periods. IncreasedThe following recommendations are the outcome research and use of new technology is crucialof a learning process during the development of to ensure climate resilience in agricultural pro-the study, as well as part of the final conclusions duction for both subsistence farming and cashfrom the specific models and sectoral research. crop production. Higher temperatures can
xxii ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS improve agricultural production if water con- implementing capacity of identified govern- cerns are addressed. ment institutions.Strengthen people-centered development ■■ Identify and divide clear responsibilities among institutions.and carefully consider the distributional New legislation should identify clear responsibil-implications of policy actions. ities and roles among different institutions.■■ Devote increased financial resources to promote resil- ■■ Improved coordination and dialogue among national, iency and the fast implementation of selected soft and departmental, and municipal governments. Improved hard adaptation actions that are carefully ordered, coordination among different levels of govern- prioritized across time, and integrated into ment is crucial in order to optimize limited development planning. economic resources and make water storage investments sustainable.■■ Incorporate existing local perspectives and experience in dealing with climate issues and locally specific develop- Over the long term, protect the most vul- ment practices. Processes that underpin the devel- nerable populations and strengthen disas- opment of adaptation policies should respect ter risk management practices. existing community practices, which guide the prioritization of investments. Combining ■■ In the period until 2050 and beyond, ensure that the traditional knowledge with new methods and most vulnerable populations are protected from the technology is essential. Past coping strategies current and (more extreme) future climate and adaptation practices to climate variability risks and water shortages, and that the needed and extreme events hold valuable lessons for institutional and infrastructure conditions are future adaptation planning. in place to support these people and to make the agricultural sector more climate resilient.■■ Strengthen people-centered development. The study By 2050, the country is expected to have a identified that the most vulnerable groups much higher level of infrastructure and physi- are the poorest of the poor, who do not have cal assets increasing its potential vulnerability, reserves or production capital for investment in but at the same time will likely have a much adaptation processes. These individuals gener- greater capacity to deal with climate shocks. ally reside in relatively dry zones—such as cen- Transfer and access to different technologies to tral and southern Altiplano, the valleys, and improve resiliency to climate change is impor- the Chaco,—where the poorest groups often tant for vulnerable populations. depend on rainfed agriculture. Families that reside along riverbeds in lowland areas also are ■■ Disaster risk management practices must be part of vulnerable to flooding. long-term development planning. The focus should be on preventive actions. Disaster risk reduc-Institutional capacity should be improved tion needs to be part of long-term planningto accelerate implementation and clear at all levels of government, across all indus-identification of responsibilities. tries, and particularly at the departmental and■■ Improve implementing capacity of key institutions. In municipal level. This also includes improve- order to scale up implementation of climate- ments in disaster preparedness capacity. robust development activities—such as water storage, irrigation, research, and climate New methodologies and improved data modeling—it will be important to improve the availability and analysis are important
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY xxiiito improve the basis for climate-robust ■■ New flexible methodologies are needed to integrate cli-decisions. mate change into national and regional planning. The study has provided and tested several mod-■■ Considerable gaps in the hydrometeorological data els and methodologies at different scales of increase uncertainties in climate models and lacks in analysis (i.e. macro and micro watershed level, the implementation of specific adaptation actions. department level, etc), which can serve as The study has identified many data gaps that inspiration to integrate climate change in over- should be improved, but also succeeded in col- all development strategies. The development lecting and systematizing hydrometeorological of indicators of climate change vulnerability data that can be useful in future adaptation at the river basin level and for urban areas are strategies and actions. examples of new components available to sup- port further analysis as improved climate pro- jections become available for Bolivia. Study Limitations This study should be valued for the contributions it makes from the methodological point of view, rather than the numerical results it offers under each specific sector. Data sources used are still lim- ited and the level of accuracy is low within all sectors. The results in each sector analyzed should not be taken as absolute true, but rather as clues to deepen the level of analysis in the areas revealed as critical by this analysis. The integration and flow of sector analysis data within different components was limited due to dif- ferent timeframes allocated for the collection of baseline data and the analysis by local consultants. For example, the Social component originally intended to use inputs from the water and agriculture sector to inform workshop discussions and help draw links between different sectors. However, tim- ing of the study resulted in the sector analyses to be conducted in parallel which led to difficulties for integrating the social study components overall. The water resource analysis does not extend to all the water sub-sectors. That is, it does not analyze water for hydro-power generation, water for navigation purposes and neither water quality or transboundary issues. The analysis on future changes in water available, only takes into account the effect on climate change on the natural supply of water, assuming that future changes in the demand respond only to development and growth. Population and growth projections were estimated based on national statistics data (constant trend up to 2050). All of these gaps may be closed as more reliable and accurate data is available, both from a tem- poral and geographic perspective. The report is by no means comprehensive and there are several limitations to the outcomes. The study should thus be considered a first step toward an integrated analysis that identifies areas and populations most vulnerable to climate change effects and evalu- ates robust adaptation practices to be implemented up to 2050.
xxiv O NE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 1Motivation andContext for StudyThe Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change major economic sectors using country-level data(EACC) study estimates that it will cost $75 — sets that have global coverage. Sectors covered$100 billion each year for developing countries are agriculture, forestry, fisheries, infrastructure,to adapt to climate change from 2010 to 2050 water resources, coastal zones, health, and eco-(World Bank 2009a). The study—funded by the system services. Cost implications of changes ingovernments of the Netherlands, United King- the frequency of extreme weather events are alsodom, and Switzerland—has two specific objec- considered, including the implications for socialtives. The first is to develop a “global” estimate of protection programs. Under the country track,adaptation costs to inform the international com- impacts of climate change and adaptation costsmunity’s efforts on how to tailor adequate and are being established by sector, but only for thesustainable support regarding new and additional major economic sectors in each case study coun-resources to help vulnerable developing countries try. In contrast to the global analysis, vulnerabilitymeet adaptation costs. The second objective is to assessments and participatory scenario workshopssupport decision makers in developing countries are being used to highlight the impact of climateto better evaluate and assess the risks posed by change on vulnerable groups and to identifyclimate change and to better design strategies adaptation strategies that can benefit these groupsto adapt to climate change. This objective com- from a bottom up and top-down approach.prised the identification of adaptation optionsthat incorporate strategies dealing with highuncertainty, potentially high future damages, and Backgroundcompeting needs for investments in social andeconomic development up to 2050. The purpose of this study was to assist the gov- ernment of the Plurinational State of BoliviaThe EACC study includes a global track to meet (hereafter referred to as Bolivia) in their effortsthe first study objective and a case study track to evaluate the potential economic impacts ofto meet the second objective. The country track climate change and to support their efforts tocomprises seven countries: Ethiopia, Mozam- develop robust climate policies and investmentsbique, Ghana, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Bolivia in response to these potential impacts. The focusand Samoa. Under the global track, adaptation of the Bolivia case study was defined through ancosts for all developing countries are estimated by ongoing dialogue with the relevant government
2 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSinstitutions in Bolivia to ensure coverage of local Scope and Study Approachpriorities, needs and overall country buy-in. Thegovernment’s interest resided predominantly in The study evaluated a range of adaptation optionsthe new knowledge that would be generated about for two sectors: agriculture (production of crops)adaptation measures in the agriculture, social and water (irrigation infrastructure and urbanand water sectors, as well as in the formulation of sanitation). The agriculture component evaluatedadaptation planning tools to help evaluate, sequence, crop production under different climate scenariosand prioritize adaptation options. Consequently, and identified robust adaptation options for fourthe Bolivian government did not consider the major crop systems. The water sector focused inestimation of adaptation costs at a national or the evaluation of irrigation in rural areas andsector level useful at this time, due to the many general aspects of urban needs under differentuncertainties in the quality and aggregation of climate scenarios. Identified options were con-local data as well as the limitations inherent in trasted with options previously identified by thea sector-specific approach. The dialogue process National Program of Climate Change (PNCC).meant an expansion of the social vulnerabilitystudy, a reduction in the evaluation of adap- The study was designed to improve knowledgetation costs and a modification in the scale of on the economics of adaptation, presenting eco-analysis for the socioeconomic investment plan- nomic aspects of different adaptation options asning tool. Consequently, the study approach for potential development resources under a chang-Bolivia differs substantially from other EACC ing climate. The focus of the work was on gov-pilot countries. ernment-led, or planned adaptation, including:
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 3public infrastructure investments, agricultural some light on the distributional implications ofresearch and extension services, community- different adaptation options on poor and vulner-based disaster preparedness, and implementation able groups.of regulations that enable private adaptation tohelp the vulnerable cope when planned adapta- The report is organized into eight sections. Sec-tion measures are insufficient. A cost benefit anal- tion 1 provides a short context and motivation ofysis to assess robustness was performed on stylized the study. Section 2 provides selective backgroundadaptation options previously identified by the information on the Bolivian economy and itsNational Mechanism of Adaptation to Climate climate vulnerability. Sector 3 outlines countryChange (PNCC, 2007) for the Agriculture and historical and current vulnerability to climateWater Resource sectors. The adaptation options variability. Section 4 and 5 outline the sector mod-identified in the National Adaptation Mechanism eling work in the agriculture and water resourcewere validated and/or improved by each sector sectors, respectively, and evaluate and identifywhen contrasted with new climate change impact robust adaptation options in relation to currentand vulnerability analysis for the agriculture (crop and future vulnerabilities to climate change. Sec-production) and the water infrastructure sec- tion 6 addresses the view and needs of the mosttors (water storage and irrigation needs). As the vulnerable communities to climate change andgreat majority of adaptation options identified contrast sector adaptation strategies to currentby the water, agriculture, and social components climate variability and potential changes. Sectionconverged on the need of more efficient water 7 describes the development of a cost and ben-management, most of the analysis were based efit methodology for the evaluation of adaptationon water infrastructure needs to meet new and options by integrating climate change into its esti-additional demands. mates. The analysis of stylized planned adapta- tion options identified by the government is usedA new development planning tool, based on to exemplify the methodology. Section 8 detailssocioeconomic analysis, was developed to the application of a development modeling tool atimprove development plans for water consump- a watershed level to characterize the sequencingtion at a vulnerable watershed level under pro- and prioritization of adaptation options. Finally,jected climate change. The tool was developed section 9 draws tentative conclusions and recom-to aid policymakers to sequence and prioritize mended actions based on all preliminary findings.identified adaptation options. Finally, a social Main limitations of the study are summarized incomponent complemented the analysis and shed Box 3.
4 T WO ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 5Background onBolivia’s EconomyThe Socioeconomic Context the world where the majority of the population identify themselves as indigenous. Annual GDP isBolivia is a large country that encompasses several $1,363 per capita (INE, 2007) making Bolivia onedistinct climate zones. It has a modest population of the poorest countries in South America. Theof approximately 10.4 million people and an share of agriculture in GDP was about 14 percentannual growth rate of 3.4 percent (INE, 2007).3 in 2005 (INE, 2005); based on historical develop-Within this vast territory, population density hov- ment trends, this is likely to fall in the range 6-8ers at an average of 10 people per square kilome- percent by 2050. According to the 2002 censuster – the lowest in the American continent – with about 65 percent of the population fell below thearound 40 percent of the population living in rural national poverty line including about 84 percentareas. By 2050, population is expected to grow to of the rural population. These high levels of pov-15 million (EACC global report estimates). erty are associated with a very unequal distribu- tion of income.According to the 2002 census, nearly two thirdsof the population live in conditions of poverty Bolivia’s economy is relatively insensitive toand an estimated one third live in extreme pov- changes in climate. The economy is based onerty. Approximately 30 percent of Bolivia’s rural mineral and hydrocarbon extraction and apopulation resides in the valleys and high plateau strong soybean economy in the Eastern Low-areas, where water availability is significantly less land; according to most climate projections, thisthan the country average4 and poverty levels are economy is expected to suffer relatively little fromhighest. The share of the population living in climate change. The industrial sector is small, andurban areas is expected to grow to 82 percent by most internal demand is satisfied through imports.2050.5 In addition, Bolivia has one of the larg- Nonetheless, a large portion of Bolivia’s populationest indigenous population in South America; with is extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change as36 ethnic groups it is one of the few countries in these people rely on agricultural production for subsistence. For this segment of the population adaptation to3 National Institute of Statistics (INE) and Ministry of Economy climate change must be an essential component and Public Finance, Fiscal Analysis Framework (RAF). of any strategy for poverty alleviation and the4 See table 3, Water Resources Annex for data on water available per capita per sub-basin enhancement of economic opportunities.5 EACC Global report , 2009
6 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSThe Institutional Context should be able to enhance transparency and pro- vide access to public finances by the local com- munities. However, lack of efficiency, technicalBolivia’s decentralized capacity, and poor financial administration pres-governance structure ents a challenge for many municipalities, which has resulted in low rates of implementation.Recent changes to the Constitution establishindigenous and regional autonomy within depart- Enhanced coordination will be a key issue tomental limits.6 Indigenous autonomies will thus implement coherent and efficient climate adap-enjoy exclusive rights over territorial management tation strategies and actions. This is also under-and development of their farming and livestock scored in the results of the investment planningsector; territorial autonomies will have rights over tool (section 8). The significant fiscal resourcestheir territories. These structural changes aim administrated autonomously by departmentalto provide space for greater social and political and municipal governments might make it com-inclusion for indigenous and peasant groups and plex to implement regional projects across politi-establish a framework for a more decentralized cal boundaries and ensure financial contributionsgovernment structure that is more responsive to to such projects.Bolivia’s cultural diversity. It is possible that onceregional and indigenous autonomies are formed, It will therefore be important in the develop-they will follow the participatory planning struc- ment of national and regional climate adaptionture already established at the municipal level, strategies to inform and capacity build local gov-whereby investments are identified and prioritized ernments as well as ensure their participation inin community and municipal workshops in which elaboration of strategies and actions.civil society directly makes decisions. However,according to the National Program for Climate Current adaptation andChange, climate adaptation strategies will prob- development initiativesably be implemented only at the local level whenperceived relevant by local institutions and civil The formulation of national climate change policysociety. It is therefore important to also ensure currently falls under the realm of the Ministry ofcoordination among different adaptation plans Environment and Water. Within this ministry, theto improve implementation of actions at all levels institutions most closely related to climate change(PNCC, 2002). are the Vice Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation and the Vice Ministry of Environment,In 1994, the Bolivian Government passed a Biodiversity, Climate Change and Forestry Man-new decentralization law (Law 1551). The law agement and Development. The National Pro-is known as Law of Popular Participation and aims gram for Climate Change (PNCC–in Spanish),to: move decision-making process closer to the housed in the Vice Ministry of Environment, Bio-local population, enhance local participation, diversity and Climate Change, is the body directlyand ensure a more cost-efficient delivery of ser- responsible for designing and implementing miti-vices by decentralization of financial resources gation and adaptation actions across sectors.to the municipalities. The decentralization policy In the past years, the PNCC has developed a6 As such, indigenous autonomies will enjoy exclusive rights over National Mechanism of Adaptation to Climate Change territorial management and development of their farming and (2007). This mechanism is both a long-term strat- livestock sector; territorial autonomies will have rights over their territories. egy aimed at promoting national development
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 7as well as a tool to develop a cross-cutting struc- specifically, it proposes implementation strategiestural response to climate change adaptation. that generally promote inter-institutional activ-The mechanism consists of a set of adaptation ity consistent with the National Developmentprograms in five sectors: food security; sanita- Program’s institutional framework. However,tion; water resources; ecosystems; and human implementation of the National Mechanism hassettlements and risk management. In addition, been quite slow.the mechanism addresses three cross-sectoralareas relevant to climate change adaptation: A new National Development Plan 2010-2015 isscientific investigation, education (research and being developed that includes additional mea-capacity building), and anthropologic and ances- sures to protect the agricultural sector fromtral knowledge as related to climate change. The climate-related damages. As part of incentivemechanism links directly to the National Develop- policies for production and food security andment Program 2006-2010, which aims to guarantee sovereignty, the Bolivian government proposesadequate and early response to the impacts of to implement a range of tools and mechanismsclimate change across a range of sectors. More to improve access, achieve financial stabilization,
8 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Box 1 Access to International Funds for Adaptation: Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) Bolivia has recently confirmed participation in the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience, a program developed under the Climate Investment Funds. The PPCR is a country-led initiative that seeks to (a) strengthen capacities to integrate climate resilience into national and sectoral development plans; (b) foster development strategies that take into account climate resilience; (c) raise awareness among public, private, and civil society actors on the potential impacts and vulnerabilities posed by climate change; (d) help scale up climate-resilient investments; and (e) improve coordination between key actors in implementing climate-resilient programs. The EACC study, in collaboration with complementary ongoing World Bank initiatives, could be used to fill some of the knowledge gaps required for Phase 1 of the PPCR. Phase 2 of the PPCR may provide additional financial resources to help fund basic public and private sector investments—identified by the country in their climate-resilient development plans—developed during Phase 1 investments.and support sustained agricultural productivity. programs. This includes the greater integrationMoreover, the plan aims to reduce risks asso- of the water resource management strategy andciated with the production and marketing of disaster risk prevention of meteorological eventsagricultural products. The first climate change under sector programs for food security andadaptation strategy at the municipal level (six human settlements. At a minimum, it should bemunicipalities in the Lake Titicaca) was also possible to ensure that any reconstruction afterissued in 2007. The strategy identified the fol- current or future extreme events should be basedlowing priority action areas: territorial planning, on explicit assumptions about the frequency ofwater security, climate-proofing of productive recurrence of similar or worse events in the nextsystems, and capacity building and training as 10, 20, or 50 years.related to adaptation. An improved understanding of climate changeInstitutional challenges to is needed to improve coordination and coopera-integrating adaptation into tion. Access to climate information, historicaldevelopment planning trends and potential future projections should be made more accessible to all vulnerable sectors.Current adaptation practices disproportionately This should be accompanied by a better integra-focus on post-event emergency action than on tion and interpretation of hydrometeorologicalprevention. With limited human and financial information—that is, development of robustresources, it may be inevitable that the pressure early warning systems— in decision-making pro-to respond to an immediate crisis overwhelms cesses and the formulation of strategies withingood intentions to prepare and implement all levels of society. At present, proper invest-longer term programs to limit the damage ment mechanisms rarely reach lower adminis-caused by future events. Nonetheless, a shift in trative levels, further weakening municipalities’focus is essential to enhance linkages between planning and implementation capacity. Resultsthe National Mechanism’s different sector from the social dimensions component reinforce
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 9this finding. In all municipalities studied, nei- Several actions to address many of these issuesther communities nor municipal governments and to implement the National Mechanism ofprioritize short- or long-term multi-communal Adaptation are already included in the formula-adaptation strategies. Notably, community rep- tion of the country proposal for the first phase ofresentatives and local authorities only considered the Pilot Program for Climate Resiliency (Box 1).adaptation measures within a ten-to-fifteen-year The Bolivia study hopes to contribute further totime horizon. A long-term vision for dealing with the PPCR initiative by filling local gaps on adap-the impacts of climate change is too abstract for tation information and needs, as well as on themany rural communities. decision-making process under high uncertainty.
10 TH REE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 11Vulnerability toClimate Variability andClimate ChangeBolivia is an extremely diverse territory stretching climate models requires local validation to improvefrom the Andes to the Amazon. The country has possible scenarios. Based on Bolivia’s socio-geo-been classified as one of the most important eco- graphic characteristics, four macro-regions wereregions in the world. The national territory var- used for this study:ies considerably in elevation (from 6500 and 300meters above sea level), vegetation (including for- Highlands (the Altiplano) have an altitudeests, savannas, plains, semi-arid forests), and climate. higher than 3500 meters above sea level (masl).Although Bolivia lies within tropical latitudes, tem- The climate is dry and cold, with very sharp dif-peratures are dependent on elevation and show little ferences in daily temperature and precipitationseasonal oscillation. In most cases, rainfall is most amounts. The southern part of the region is moreabundant during the southern summer, and tends humid than the north. The diurnal amplitude isto decrease from north to south (Figure 1). Bolivia very high and in the evening temperatures areis located in an area of intense climate variability, around 0° degree Centigrade. In the highlands,periodically disrupted by El Niño (ENSO).7 The rainfall is generally low, but the mountains intro-Andes Mountains, which cover much of Bolivia’s duce very important variations.territory, determines the occurrence of heavy con-vective processes that are inadequately captured by Valleys are found at the foothills of the orientalcurrent general climate models (GCM). As a result, mountain range, with average altitude rangingthe regional or large-scale information provided by from 1,000 to 3,500 masl. The climate is temper- ate and includes two sub-regions: dry valleys and7 The effects associated to both Niño and Niña years are quite the hot yungas region. unpredictable and impacts are similar meaning abnormal precipitation and positive or negative anomalies in the Altiplano and other regions, and higher incidence of other phenomena El Chaco is located in the south of Bolivia with like hails and frosts in the Western arid areas. An increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events has been observed an average altitude lower than 1000 masl. The in Bolivia in the last decades (Impacts of ENSO phenomena. climate is warm and dry. The departments of Beltrán and Gutiérrez, PNCC (forthcoming)). The strong or very strong ENSO events of 1997 and 1982 respectively, have caused Tarija, Chuquisaca and Santa Cruz are found in major impacts due to the increase in population vulnerability to this macro-region. climate events. Despite the periodic recurrence of ENSO years, it is not easy to find clear patterns to help forecast their hydro- meteorological effects better. However, climate analysis from El Plains are found in the northeastern region of Nino events suggests an increasing trend on the intensity of these events within the last decades. Bolivia, with an average altitude lower than 1,000
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 13 Figure 2 Most vulnerable municipalities selected by macro-region Macro regiones alturas San Pedro valles llanos chaco municipios seleccionados San Ignacio Yapacaní Pucarani Calacoto Sicaya Saipina Curahura de Carangas Charagua Taravita Porco Vitichi Villa Vaca Guzman El Puertemigrate. During the last ENSO event, Beni and Hence, this increase in frequency and intensity hasSanta Cruz departments suffered important losses the dangerous potential to trigger a spiral of increas-in the soy, maize, yucca, sugar cane, and rice crops. ing vulnerability, which is important to bear in mindLivestock is not only lost during the flood event, but when designing adaptation strategies.also displaced to areas where it doesn´t adapt cor-rectly and ends up producing less or dying. Farm- If the frequency of extreme weather eventsers have to rent new land for pasture elsewhere, increases in countries such as Bolivia9 (includingwhich affects their income (CEPAL, 2008). the onset of El Niño and La Niña events), the accu- mulation of events within shorter time frames canClimate change is increasing the frequency with threaten development as usual given the seriouswhich extreme events occur and reducing the time public sector financial limitations. This vulner-to recover from a specific event. With less time to ability of small economies underscores the needincrease resilience and adaptive capacity before for financial contingency planning to increase thethe next event occurs, Bolivia is more sensitive to government’s resilience against future disastersclimate variability. The CEPAL study has already (Mechler et al. 2009) (Figure 3).reported that most of the damages caused by the2008 ENSO-related events were influenced by a bad 9 World Development Report 2010: Development and Climaterecovery from the impacts of 2007 extreme events. Change. World Bank
14 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSCoping Strategies and One way indigenous populations have adapted their livelihood to the climate variability in BoliviaCurrent Climate Variability is by diversifying their food security by producing different crops, breeding llamas and cattle as wellDue to historical climate variability in Bolivia, as hunting and fishing depending on the local con-many indigenous groups have developed context text. In the highlands or Altiplano, the indigenousspecific adaptation strategies to survive on what population has used different elevations to producecan be considered to be marginal farming land different crops as well as sawing different varietieswhether it is located in the dry highlands or in the of the same crop. For instance, 21 different potatolowland plains. The indigenous population used varieties were registered in one small communitydifferent strategies to adapt and transform the in the area of Cochabamba. The different variet-landscape to cope with climate variability. These ies are resistant to drought, frost and pests. Thestrategies can serve as inspiration in today’s cli- families spread and reduce the risk to climate vari-mate adaption, though a simple recovery of the ability and change by cultivating different varietiespast would be an over-simplification. resistant to the range of plausible climates. Figure 3 Small and poor countries financially vulnerable to extreme weather events Financial Vulnerability Critical event return period (years) High 11 – 50 Medium 51 – 250 Low > 250 Not applicableSource: Mechler and others, 2009.Note: The map shows degree to which countries are financially vulnerable to floods and storms. For example, in countries shadeddark red, a severe weather event that would exceed the public sector’s financial ability to restore damaged infrastructure andcontinue with development as planned is expected about once every 11 to 50 years (an annual probability of 2-10 percent). Thehigh financial vulnerability of small economies underscores the need for financial contingency planning to increase governments’resilience against future disasters. Only the 74 most disaster-prone countries that experienced direct losses of at least 1 percent ofGDP due to floods, storms, and droughts during the past 30 years were included in the analysis.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 15The indigenous population also transformed the climate has been warming with implications forlandscape to reduce climate risk and improve the soil composition and crop cycles. In addition, ani-yields from marginal lands. In the Tiwanaku and mals, insects, plants and crops native to warmerTiticaca area, pre-hispanic cultures transformed zones have been appearing in traditionally coolerthe landscape with terraced fields, irrigation, zones. Communities in the valleys and plainscanals and artificial ponds, which buffered against observed that winters are warmer and the overall,the extreme climate (such as drought, frost and incidence of drought has increased. These obser-hail), improved soil moisture and reduced loss of vations coincide with results of the agriculturethe topsoil. In the lowland Beni Plains, the Moxos analysis which found that in years of projectedpopulation transformed wetlands in a highly drought, there will be significant declines in thesophisticated manner by establishing extensive yields of potato, corn and quinoa crops.systems of canals, raised fields, dikes and reser-voirs, which allowed them to reduce the risks for “The sun is stronger, the soil is drier and there areflooding and control water flow while making new illnesses in the plants.”the area highly productive. Ironically, these agri- Community workshop in La Sillada, Valleys macro-regioncultural engineering systems are currently aban-doned or underutilized and the large part of the Representatives of ten of the fourteen communitiesindigenous knowledge has been lost. studied confirmed that they have been affected by severe droughts in the past thirty years. InterviewsThese traditional strategies are in many ways a reveal that livelihoods based on rain-fed potatorepresentation of robust measures that increase farming and livestock farming are most threatenedresilience to climate variability and should be re- by increased incidence of drought. Table 1 pres-evaluated in developing future climate resilient ents community members’ views on the direct andstrategies in rural areas. However, this should be indirect effects of drought on their livelihoods.done in close dialogue with local population toevaluate the enabling conditions to promote the During periods of drought, smallholder familiesadoption of these “traditional” practices again, are often forced to consume their food reserves,as the labor intensive construction of terraces with severe implications for their long-term well-and raised fields, for example, may not be attrac- being. Given the likelihood of increased drought intive without the use of machinery. The traditional Bolivia, past experience with the indirect effects ofknowledge should therefore be complemented drought—such as rising commodity prices, forcedwith latest technology and knowledge. migration, a decline in food availability, the intro- duction of new diseases, and the near extinctionDuring the study, most of the communities empha- of native crops—inform the communities’ visionsized the increasing difficulties to predict current of the types of adaptation measures that will beweather, and that the traditional climatic indica- necessary in the future to cope with drought.tors (i.e. cropping calendars) are no longer reliable.Thus, traditional knowledge could be comple- In 1983, the community of Qhawasiri (from themented with the latest hydro-meteorological infor- valleys macroregion) was so severely hit by droughtmation of climate past and future trends, the that practically all potato seeds were destroyed.creation of early warning systems, and the avail- As a result, many men migrated in search ofability of climate information within rural areas. opportunities to earn money to buy new seeds. High demand and the low supply of seeds droveThe majority of communities studied for this prices up and Bolivia was forced to import potatoreport believe that over the past 20 to 30 years, the seeds. The arrival of these foreign seed varieties
16 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Table 1 Direct and indirect effects of drought on local populations Percentage of assessed communities Effect observing climate change trends ( %) Direct effects Decline or loss of productivity 100 Loss of genetic material 86 Decline in food 100 Decreased availability of potable water 54 Less hygiene 46 Indirect effects Less monthly income/productive capital 100 Adverse impact on children’s education 62 Increased incidence of illness 100 Source: Community workshops-Social Componentheralded the onset of new diseases and parasites peri-urban areas are the most commonly affectednever before seen in the region posing new devel- infrastructures. The quality of construction ofopment challenges for the long-term. In addition, houses is not adequate in most of the rural andlivestock farming in some areas is ceasing to be peri-urban areas throughout the national terri-a viable means of subsistence, hence many live- tory, and especially in Beni, Potosi, and Cocha-stock farmers have had to find alternative liveli- bamba departments (Oxfam-Fundepco, 2008).hood opportunities. During the first quarter of 2007, the impact ofTwelve of the fourteen communities in the high- El Niño 2006-2007 in Bolivia cost approximatelylands, valleys and plains reported that while there US$ 443.3 million in damages, half of whichis less rainfall overall, rainfall has become more were direct damage to property and the remain-intense. They observed that the rivers carry less ing 45 percent were losses in cash flow, declineswater or have dried up completely; there is less in production, reduced income and disruption ofnatural vegetation and agricultural yields have services. In 2003, a drought in Southern Santadropped. In contrast, community members from Cruz destroyed almost all agricultural produc-the Amazon region indicated that rains begin ear- tion and, at the same time, most of the countrylier and end later. For all populations, increasingly was affected by heavy rains and floods in differ-intense rainfall patterns have caused more flood- ent places, leading to landslides and extensiveing and erosion with devastating consequences damage to infrastructure. In 2006, 64,000 ha offor livelihoods dependent on the farming and crops were damaged by floods. On average, thelivestock sector. Indirect effects of flooding and national government has spent around US $136drought include increased malnutrition, propaga- million per year to support the agriculture sectortion of illnesses and the potential to reverse past deal with climate-related losses. Notably, a com-development gains. parison of current El Niño events and those in 1982/83 and 1997/98, which were of greaterMost of the post-event investments are allocated intensity and magnitude, show that although theto rehabilitate infrastructure, which is vulnerable affected population is today four times greaterbecause it is poorly maintained, or has been built than in 1997/98, only a third of the populationwithout taking flood risk sufficiently into account. (in comparison to 1982/83) was injured. Table 2Roads, irrigation infrastructure and precarious shows the economic impacts by sectors from allwater and sanitation facilities in the rural and Niño Events since 1983.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 17According to the National Statistical Institute markets — a consequence that can have serious(INE), major impacts occurred in the infra- long-term consequences.structure sector (particularly on roads) as wellas in the agriculture and livestock sectors (INE, Figure 4 shows the influence of accumulating2008). Although damage and losses in housing extreme events on agricultural GDP. The negativeinfrastructure are somewhat less, this aspect impact of strong El Niño events (red) is clear in thehas major implications for the most vulnerable years 1982–83, 1991–92, and 2005–06. Also visiblegroups — women, small traders, and indigenous is the slight improvement of agriculture manage-peoples — as they lost valuable assets vital to ment in 2003–04. The effects of La Niña events,pursuing their livelihood strategies. In addi- shown in blue, also are evident (although less severe)tion, damage to roads greatly reduces access to in the years 1985–86, 1988–89, and 1994–95. Table 2 Economic Impact of the El Niño events since 1983 Total Losses (millions of dollars in 2004) Date People Total Economic (El Niño) injured impacts Direct damages Loss (cash flow) External effects * 1982-1983 1.600.000 2.821 1.759 1.062 101 1997-1998 135.000 649 262 387 32 2006-2007 562.594 443 242 200 18 2007 compared to 35.2 52.9 46.5 63.6 7 1982-1983 event (%) 2007 compared to 416.7 84 113.8 63.8 12.8 1997-1998 event (%) * In terms of reduced imports, increased exports and capital flows altered by the event (INE, 2008) Figure 4 Annual Percentage Change of Agriculture GDP with the Effect of El Niño and La Niña Years 15% 10% 5% 0 -5% -10% -15% 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 EL NIÑO LA NIÑA HISTORICAL VARIABILITY
18 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSThe effect from the phenomenon La Niña (blue) The wet scenario for Bolivia forecasts an averagealso show through (although less severe) in the temperature increase of 1.55˚C and an annualyears 1985-1986, 1988-1989 and 1994-1995. mean precipitation increase of +22 percent, whereas the dry scenario shows a temperature increase of 2.41˚C and a decrease in precipitationAssessment of Climate of -19 percent averaged across the Bolivian terri-Change Impacts Under tory. The global dry scenario shows a temperature increase of 2.02˚C and a decrease in rainfall ofFuture Uncertainty -10 percent. Table 3 and Figure 5 below show the main differences projected by the two scenarios inClimate model outputs terms of geographical distribution obtained from GCM data aggregated at the subnational level.To account for uncertainty in climate predictions, The trend over the period 2006 to 2050 indicatesthe country study used three extreme climate warming in all regions, with an increase in meanchange scenarios to project future ranges of cli- temperature of 2.3˚C. Temperature increase ismate change for the period of 2010 to 2050 under similar for the three models. No significant intra-the SRES A2 scenario10. The study considered annual variability was observed. In particular, theextreme scenarios in terms of water availability in extremes of the different scenarios affect the Alti-order to simulate the worst-case scenarios, assum- plano in the southwest—with large falls in rainfalling that any possible changes in the Bolivian cli- in the dry scenarios and large increases in the wetmate are likely to occur somewhere between these scenario. As a consequence, uncertainty abouttwo.11 The extreme scenarios used were Global the potential impacts of climate change is muchDry,12 used as a dry model in the EACC global greater for rural populations in the Altiplano.13study (determined by CSIRO 3.0 global circulationmodel); Bolivia Wet, determined by the BCCR 2.0 Most of the models do not agree with regard toglobal circulation model; and Bolivia Dry, deter- rainfall projections by 2050 in terms of sign ofmined by the GFDL 2.0 global circulation model. the change, intensity, and geographical distribu-Climate projections for these models were created tion in Bolivia. However, there is consensus thatat a 0.5 by 0.5 spatial degree scale and a monthly the current increasing trend of climate extremestime scale by applying model predictions through will continue, causing longer and more frequent2050 to a historical climate baseline obtained from dry spells and more intense rainfall events (IPCC,the University of East Anglia Climate Research 2007). The regional model PRECIS, imple-Unit’s global climate database. These data sets mented by Marengo et al. (2009), and also showswere used mainly to determine impacts and adap- an expected increase in consecutive dry days fortation options for the water resource sector. the North and a significant decrease for the South- west under SRES A2. The same model forecasts an increase in extreme rainfall (maximum pre-10 SRES scenarios are emission scenarios developed by Nakicenovic and Swart (2000) and used, among others, as a basis for some of cipitation in five consecutive days) in the Chaco the climate projections used in the Fourth Assessment Report. and valley regions (see Annex 1: Water Resources11 The climatic data resolution from current IPCC GCMs is quite low (on the order of 100–200 km). This implies an important loss Impact Analysis, Figure 2). of accuracy when the data is aggregated at smaller units (i.e. sub- basin level). However, despite these uncertainties, the trends are sufficient to consider a changing climate toward more warmer and more erratic rainfall everywhere. 13 It is important to highlight the need to improve collection and12 This particular model showed a less dry projection than the access to hydrometeorological data to allow for enhanced calibra- Bolivia dry, so the study focused on the Bolivia wet and dry to tion between low resolution global climate outputs and the local reflect possible extremes. context.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 19 Table 3 Summary of main climatic characteristics of the Bolivia wet and dry scenario Wet Scenario Dry Scenario Small increase in rainfall throughout most of the Overall rainfall decreases, mostly in Altiplano and territory; higher increase in western Altiplano; slight east of the Amazonian region; El Chaco shows a decrease in Chaco slight increase in annual rainfall Slight increase in potential evapotranspiration due to Increase in potential evapotranspiration is higher in increase in temperature; higher increase in Altiplano the Altiplano High decrease in water availability in Chaco; highest Overall water availability decreases across the increase in Altiplano and northern Amazonian region country, mostly in Altiplano and East Amazonas Rainfall concentration diminishes for the Amazonian Increase in rainfall concentration in the wet season plains and increases in Altiplano, where the rainfall in all the low lands period starts sooner Figure 5 Projected precipitation changes to 2050 under different climate scenarios % change % change -10 – 0 -30 – -20 0 – 15 -20 – -10 15 – 40 -10 – 0 40 – 60 0 – 15 60 – 100 > 100 Bolivia Wet Scenario Global Dry Bolivia Dry Scenario
20 FO UR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 21Sector Analysis:AgricultureSector Description strategies in the agriculture sector, an effort has been made to evaluate major crops in the areasThe agricultural component attempts to under- where they are currently grown (Figure 6).stand climate change impacts and adaptation inthe agriculture sector, which is one of the most vul- Four crops—quinoa, potato, maize, and soy—werenerable sectors to climate change in Bolivia. Food selected based on their importance for food secu-security is still a major concern in the country. rity and the economy in Bolivia. This selection ofThe majority of the poorest population depends crops seeks to capture the diversity of agricultureon agricultural production for subsistence. As a production systems in Bolivia. These crops arestarting point to understand needed adaptation cultivated from the Altiplano to the lower areas. They also reflect the diversity between small-scale agriculture and local consumption (potato, maize, Figure 6 Regional distribution of and quinoa), and commercial export crops (soya four crop cultivation and the increasing export of quinoa). See Annex 2 for the complete agriculture background report, including further details on the crops selected. Quinoa Although the production of quinoa represents only 1.5 percent of agricultural GDP, it is very impor- tant for the food security of rural communities in the Altiplano. Annual production is around 25,200 metric tons, produced in approximately 45,000 ha of land by 70,000 agricultural producers. Almost 80 percent of these producers are small-scale sub- sistence farmers in the northern Altiplano. These farmers tend to rely solely on quinoa for nourish- ment and food security. The central and south- ern regions of the Altiplano contain less than 20
22 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSpercent of the producers; however, production in of 380,000 ha under cultivation, and the “inte-these areas constitutes more than 55 percent of grated area (valleys and plains)” with aroundthe total and is oriented toward international mar- 300,000 ha of cultivated area. The integratedkets. Nonetheless, while Bolivia is a leading world area is composed of about 8,000 small farms.exporter of this crop, the trade volume of quinoa Two sites were chosen in the department of Santais still relatively small compared to other agricul- Cruz (Trompillo and San Ignacio).tural export commodities in Bolivia. Three differ-ent study sites for this crop were selected reflecting Maizedifferences in production and soils: Viacha (north-ern Altiplano), Patacamaya (central Altiplano), Maize is cultivated in all departments in Bolivia, yetand Uyuni (south Altiplano). most of the production takes place in the valleys/ plains macroregion (Santa Cruz, Cochabamba,Potato Chuquisaca and Tarija). The total cultivated area is 364,000 has. Santa Cruz is the largest producerPotato is cultivated in seven out of the nine of maize with 168,400 ha of land dedicated todepartments in Bolivia by approximately 200,000 the crop. Maize constitutes an important dietaryfamily producers—almost a million people. More component for rural populations and is also a vitalthan 80 percent of the producers are small-scale input for the livestock sector in Bolivia. Threefarmers in the Altiplano and the valleys; the rest study sites were chosen: Trompillo and Camiri inare located in sub-Andean zones. The cultivated the department of Santa Cruz, and Yacuiba inarea for potato is 6.5 percent of Bolivia’s total the department of Tarija.cultivated land mass. Potato production is mostlygeared toward internal consumption. The potatois an important component of the local popula- Impact and Vulnerability totion’s diet and contributes greatly to the food Climate Change of thesecurity of local populations. Four study sites forthis crop were selected: two in the department of Agriculture SectorLa Paz (Belen and Patacamaya), and two in thedepartment of Potosi (Puna and Mojo). Three The agriculture sector is very sensitive to climatedifferent varieties of potato with significantly dif- variability and climate change given that mostferent phenological characteristics were studied: of the productive systems are rainfed, soil con-the Waycha variety, a commercial native potato; ditions are poor, technological development isthe Luki variety, a bitter potato; and the Alpha low, and there is low utilization of inputs. Globalvariety, a commercially imported potato. changes (both long-term change and changes in extremes) will have important implications forSoybean the economic productivity of the sector. The sec- tor will be affected by two primary water-relatedSoybean cultivation constitutes more than 50 per- climate risks:cent of total cultivated land in Bolivia. Total pro-duction has been around 1.3 million metric tons ■■ Gradual changes in the magnitude and distribution ofin recent years. Soybean represents more than precipitation and temperature: As an example, low-10 percent of agricultural GDP and is produced lands are going to face the highest increases inmainly for export and industrial processes. There water deficit, while high and medium altitudeare two main areas producing soy in Bolivia, the crops might benefit from higher temperatures“expansion area” in the plains with an estimated if accompanied by adaptation actions.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 23■■ Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events: may not involve direct movement of population, Climate events such as above average floods, pro- but a process by which rural-urban migration is longed droughts, and water scarcity will result in particularly rapid in the western departments supply shocks to the agriculture sector. together with the extension and intensification of agriculture in low zones below 1000 masl.A summary of most crop vulnerabilities to currentand projected climate variability and change isshown in Table 4. According to projected climate Climate change scenariosimpacts, vulnerability of crop yields to frost eventsis expected to decrease as temperatures rise, par- Climate projections from general circulationticularly in higher areas. Vulnerability to floods models (GCMs) were used to assess the relativeis also expected to decrease in areas where the changes in temperature and precipitation inwater deficit is expected to increase. In contrast, 2050 for the A2 emissions scenario produced byvulnerability to droughts and plagues is expected the IPCC. Seventeen GCMs forecast increase into increase in these areas given that higher tem- temperature between 1.5 and 2.8 ˚C from currentperatures favor the development of crop diseases averages across the country. These models do notand plagues. Lower-lying regions, however, will agree in rainfall projections by 2050 in terms ofcontinue to be vulnerable to droughts. the sign of the change, intensity, and geographical distribution. However, it is agreed that the currentIn general, both the potential effects of climate increasing trend in intensity and frequency of cli-change and uncertainty about its impact on agri- mate extremes will continue (IPCC 2007). Theculture are likely to reinforce the shift of agri- projected precipitation changes reflect the possi-cultural comparative advantage within Bolivia bility of an extended dry season, weakened earlytowards the eastern half of the country at the season rainfall, and more intense rainfall eventsexpense of the Altiplano and the valleys. This during rainy season. Table 4 Vulnerability of crops to the main climatic stresses, under present and future conditions Crop Vulnerability Historical/Present Climate Change Scenario (2050) Crop Drought Frost Floods Plagues Scenario Drought Frost Floods Plagues QUINOA Medium Medium Low Medium Dry High Medium Low Medium Normal Medium Low Low High Wet Low Low Medium High POTATO High High Medium Medium Dry High Medium Low Medium Normal Medium Low Low High Wet Low Low Medium High SOY Low Low High High Dry Medium Low Medium High Normal Low Low Medium High Wet Low Low High Very High MAIZE High Low Medium Medium Dry High Low Medium Medium Normal Low Low Medium High Wet Low Low High High
24 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Figure 7 Estimated Changes in Annual Evapotranspiration under Three Different Climate Conditions for Ten Weather Stations up to 2050 WATER DEFICIT 2050-WATER DEFICIT BASELINE TOTAL (MM/YEAR) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 PATACAMAYA VIACHA BELEN PUNA MOJO UYUNI YACUIBA CAMIRI TROMPILLO S.I. DE VELASCO LA PAZ POTOSI TARIJA SANTA CRUZ DRY YEARS NORMAL YEARS WET YEARSAs low resolution GCM simulations did not ade- to local reductions in the minimum temperaturesquately reflect historical seasonal climate change that should not be ignored. With those variations,(maximum and minimum temperature change in a set of temperature profiles were built for 2050,the Altiplano, and intra-seasonal rainfall variabil- which was used later to apply the FAO-Penman-ity in Bolivia) climate data from national meteo- Monteith equation with missing parameters. Therological stations were included in the analysis Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) for 2050 wasto capture seasonal variability and complement determined under these conditions.GCM projections in the construction of futureclimate scenarios. Thus, 10 meteorological sta- Precipitation for a normal, dry and wet scenariotions were selected in the production area of each was selected from the historic records of each sta-crop14 based on the availability of at least 30 years tion based on the general consensus that the rain-(up to 2008) of valid meteorological records. The fall regimes will not change in the totals but thatlong term records were statistically evaluated to the extreme years will be more frequent in thedetermine monthly trends (for both minimum and tropical areas, which was also an output comingmaximum temperatures), and then used to proj- from the GCM’s. For the evaluation of the varia-ect this identified trends up to 2050. Assumptions tion on the local climate conditions and expectedmade are that trends would remain consistent for water deficits for 2050, the differences betweenthe locations, and within the upper (1 to 3°C) and ETo and rainfall in dry, normal and wet15 yearslower (-1 to -3°C) temperatures range from the at present and for 2050 were compared. Theprojected GCM results. The latter ranges were expected increases in water deficits are presentedimposed due to the trends observed in some points in Figure 7.14 An analysis of the trends in the monthly changes of maximum 15 The study considers two extreme scenarios in terms of water and minimum temperatures was undertaken. Probability of availability in order to simulate the worst case scenarios, assum- extremes in historical precipitation (below 25 and above 75 ing that any possible changes in the Bolivian climate are likely to percent likelihood of occurrence) helped generate the scenarios. occur somewhere between these two.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 25Results showed that crop water deficits will Figure 8 Relative Yield of Quinoa for Three Climate Scenarios and aincrease given the increase in temperatures, Scenario with No Precipitation inespecially in lower areas. The effects can be very the Critical Phenological Period (ratio of simulated 2050 tosevere in areas of the Altiplano, since its climate historical yield)conditions are already characterized by low levels 2.5of precipitation and humidity. 2.0Crop Yield Model Outputs 1.5Statistical crop growth models were used to 1.0simulate the response of crop yields to changesin temperature and precipitation as a result of 0.5climate change and adaptation options. The 0AQUACROP model was used for quinoa, VIACHA PATACAMAYA UYUNImaize, and soybean, and the SOLANUM-LIN- DRY NORMAL WETTUL agriculture model was used for potato. SIGNIFICANT DELAY IN RAIN PERIOD (NO IRRIGATION)AQUACROP is a model developed by FAO tosimulate crop yield response to different wateravailability conditions. SOLANUM-LINTUL isa model specifically developed for potato, cali-brated to the existing crop varieties in Bolivia. It under a wet scenario, 10 percent under a nor-also simulates crop yield responses to temperature mal scenario, and moderately decrease under aand water availability conditions. Limitations in dry scenario. The projected increase in crop yieldthe use of this model are fully described in the stems from the increase in minimum temperaturesagriculture background report (Annex 2). The and the consequent reduction in frost events—analysis suggests that climate change will lead to important limiting factors for quinoa productivitysome reduction in crop yields under the normal in the Altiplano. Figure 8 presents how the posi-and dry scenarios, primarily as a result of high tive effect of increases in minimum temperatureslevels of evapotranspiration due to higher tem- is enhanced further in wet years.peratures. This could be offset by higher rain-fall in the wet scenario, leading to higher yields. Even though these results may seem optimis-Crop yields are particularly sensitive to a reduc- tic, a different conclusion is obtained when thetion in rainfall during key growing periods as a possibility of a shift in the rainy season is ana-result of a later onset of the rainy season. The lyzed. A delay of more than 20 days in the startimplication is that there are substantial opportu- of the raining season can have significant nega-nities for shifts in cropping patterns within the tive effects in quinoa given that this crop has acountry under any of the climate scenarios. Of long-cycle, and farmers do not have much roomcourse, this would not involve a direct relocation for varying planting dates. The simulation of theof production from the Altiplano to the plains, effects of limited water availability on crop yieldsbut shifts between neighboring subzones would reveals that crop yields will be drastically reducedcertainly occur. for any scenario attaining a minimum base yield that is in accordance with other studies of quinoaQuinoa response to drought conditions in the critical phe-Climate change model simulation outputs show nological periods.that quinoa crop yields will increase 35 percent
26 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSPotato temperatures given its natural resistance to frostsResults from the crop model simulation suggest while. For the Waycha variety, relatively lowerthat yields may increase between 1 and 16 per- increases in yield are projected given that thiscent for all varieties particularly for the Alpha variety has higher resistance to climatic stressesvariety, as a consequence of projected higher but lower overall productivity.minimum temperatures. The Luki variety doesnot benefit as much from higher minimum Relative yield changes show important increases under a wet scenario, modest decreases under dry scenarios, and almost no change under a normal scenario. Figure 9 presents the results of Figure 9 Relative Yields of Three four study sites. As with quinoa, adequate water Potato Varieties for Three Climate supply is a crucial determinant of crop yields. Scenarios and a Scenario with No Precipitation During the Critical Waycha and Alpha potato varieties in particular Phenological Period are highly sensitive to water deficits in the Mojo(ratio simulated 2050 to historical) area. At the same time, short-cycle varieties suchWAYCHA as Alpha are highly productive whenever crop2.0 water requirements are covered. These varieties have the potential to increase global productiv-1.5 ity if managed properly. On the other hand, due1.0 to its vulnerability, climate change has the poten- tial to eradicate the Luki variety. This variety0.5 has a long cycle and low but stable productivity 0 due to its ability to resist frosts. For this reason, BELEN PATACAMAYA PUNA MOJO increases in minimum temperature can make Luki potato farming unattractive to farmers as itALPHA becomes more profitable to switch to more mar-2.0 ketable and resistant varieties; that is, a delay in1.5 the rainy period will have an impact on the long- cycle varieties but not on the short-cycle varieties.1.00.5 Soybean Soybean yields are projected to increase under 0 BELEN PATACAMAYA PUNA MOJO a wet scenario and decrease under a dry sce- nario. Figure 10 shows the relative yields forLUKI soybean. Yields increase only for a wet scenario2.0 that satisfies crop water requirements under cli- mate change conditions. They decrease slightly1.5 under a no-climate-change scenario. Finally,1.0 yields decrease considerably under a dry a sce- nario and a scenario without water in the criti-0.5 cal flourishing period. An additional simulated 0 scenario included the possibility of a heat wave BELEN PATACAMAYA PUNA MOJO (20 dry days with high temperatures), which gen- erated major reductions in yield. The possibility DRY NORMAL WET DELAY IN RAIN of having insufficient water during the critical
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 27phenological period causes a significant decrease Figure 10 Relative Soy Yield for Three Climate Scenarios and a Scenarioin yields. This suggests that there will be a need to with No Precipitation in the Criticalguarantee water availability during extreme situ- Phenological Period (ratio simulated 2050 to historical yield)ations to maintain productivity. While the studyconsidered the summer crop season only, the 1.6results can also apply to the winter crop season, 1.4considering that dry years can significantly limit 1.2soybean production. While results suggest that 1.0soybean yields may increase in normal and wet 0.8years, this only applies to situations where precipi- 0.6tation is uniformly distributed across the cropping 0.4period. Long periods with excess rainfall or dry 0.2spells may imply a significant reduction in soy- 0 TROMPILLO S.I. DE VELASCObean productivity. DRY NORMAL WETMaize LACK OF RAIN IN CRITICAL PERIODSimulation results show that maize yields canincrease up to 20 percent under a wet scenario.This is not the case under dry and normal climatescenarios where yields are projected to decrease Figure 11 Relative Maize Yield for Three Climate Scenarios (ratio(see figure 11). This decrease is caused by an simulated 2050 to historical)increase in temperature that results in higher cropwater requirements. 1.6 1.4Despite the results shown in the impact assess- 1.2ment section, a temperature increase can consti- 1.0tute an opportunity to increase crop productivity 0.8if crop water requirements are guaranteed at least 0.6during critical phenological periods. 0.4 0.2 0Adaptation Options for TROMPILLO CAMIRI YACUIBACrop Production DRY NORMAL WETAccording to the estimated impact of climatechange on the four studied crops, similar adapta- potatoes, improved irrigation is a vital adaptationtion options were identified as crucial. Irrigation strategy for areas where rainfall is irregular andis clearly an important adaptation strategy for all temperatures are high. Additional options includefour crops. For quinoa, irrigation is a suitable adap- better management of the different varieties,tation option considering that the frequency and changes in sowing dates and application of irriga-probability of droughts during critical crop growth tion in critical phenological periods. For soybeans,periods is projected to increase. Additional options irrigation emerged again as the most importantinclude application of deficit irrigation, as well as adaptation strategy, particularly in critical pho-changes in the sowing dates and crop varieties. For nological periods. Additional adaptation options
28 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSinclude investments in flood control measures as Table 5 below provides an example of the types ofwell as the introduction of input saving varieties. hard and soft adaptation measures which membersFor maize, to enhance water retention and improve of the Contorno Calacoto community prioritize forsoil moisture conditions, specific adaptation mea- adapting to future climate variability and climatesures include irrigation and flood control in wet change. This community, located on the centralperiods, as well as improved soil management prac- Bolivian high plateau is characterized by its extremetices. Most adaptation strategies will require signifi- poverty owing to very low agricultural production.cant institutional support in order to avoid negative Agricultural production has deteriorated signifi-social and ecological impacts due to intensification cantly as a result of climate change, with water scar-of crop production; that is, maize requires intense city one of the community’s major problems. water and soil management in order to maintainproductivity. Some additional factors remain to be explored. This includes the potential role of investments in ruralIn addition to improved irrigation measures, local roads in providing the infrastructure required topopulations engaged in rainfed agriculture put a facilitate shifts in the location of agricultural produc-high priority on better information and capacity tion linked to changes in comparative advantage.building initiatives geared toward working withnew and adapted seed varieties, as well as betterinfrastructure for conservation and storage of crops Qualitative Estimation of Costs,during warm periods. Complementary investments Benefits, and Viability of Adaptationin both hard and soft adaptation options—exten- Options Under Climate Changesion services, crop insurance, and improved accessand availability to hydrometeorological data—will Costs of prioritized adaptation optionsbe vital in order to improve agriculture adaptation for the agriculture sectorpolicies and meet the needs of livelihoods based Based on expert assessment of several local agri-on rainfed agriculture. Additional efforts should culture consultants, a qualitative matrix was con-be made to facilitate access, transfer and adoption structed to provide some understanding of theof agriculture technologies that provide increased economic, social, and environmental costs relatedresiliency to vulnerable populations. to the implementation of adaptation measures Table 5 Adaptation Strategy of the Contorno Calacoto community Priority Measure 1 Construction of wells and water capture facilities 2 Construction of reservoirs (water capture) 3 Improvement of pasture and forage 4 Livestock infrastructure (pens, stables) 5 Support for agricultural activities (seeds, technical assistance and training) 6 Low interest financing management 7 Technical training in different activities 8 To organize a Producers ´Association 9 To improve productive infrastructure (soil management) 10 Handling and genetic improvement for cattle 11 Processing and marketing of local products
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 29 Table 6 Economic, Social, and Environmental Costs for the Implementation of Adaptation Options in Four Crops ADAPTATION MEASURES Management Changes in Use of Climate Agricultural of varieties sowing dates insurance and forecasts and research and Irrigation and and crop and crop agricultural early warning Market extension Crop flood control changes rotations subsidies systems access services COST E S A E S A E S A E S A E S A E S A E S A Quinoa H M M H M M L H L H L L H L L M L L H M M Potato H M M H M M L H L H L L H L L M L L H M M Maize H M H H M H L H L H L L H L L M L L H M M Soy H M H H H H L H L H L L H L L M L L H M M Table 7 Economic, social and environmental BENEFITS for the implementation of adaptation options in four crops ADAPTATION MEASURES Changes in Use of Climate Agricultural Changes in sowing dates insurance and forecasts and research and Irrigation and varieties and and crop agricultural early warning Market extension Crop flood control crops rotations subsidies systems access services BENEFITS E S A E S A E S A E S A E S A E S A E S A Quinoa H H M M M H M M H M M M H H H H H H M M H Potato H H M M M H M M H M M M H H H H H H M M H Maize H H M M M M M M H M M M H H H H H H M M H Soy H H M M M M M M H M M M H H H H M M M M H(Table 6). This oversimplified qualitative rank- These benefits are further defined as high (H),ing—defined as high (H), medium (M), and low medium (M), and low (L). Assessment of qualitative(L)—provides range estimates for economic costs cost and benefits shows that despite producers hav-(E), social costs (S), and environmental costs (A) ing identified the most important adaptation mea-based on the model crop yield simulation and sures (irrigation, for example), in some cases they dosocioeconomic analysis.16 not represent the most attractive option in economic and environmental terms due to their high costs.Benefits of prioritized adaptation optionsfor the agriculture sector Viability of the implementation ofTable 7 presents the economic benefits (E), social selected adaptation optionsbenefits (S), and environmental benefits (A) for the The economic viability (E), social viability (S) andimplementation of adaptation measures to respond environmental viability (A) for the implementa-to climate change impacts based on the simulation tion of adaptation measures is presented below inand socioeconomic analysis of crop production. response to climate change impacts. This is based on the simulation and socioeconomic analysis of crop production. Viability is defined as very16 The above rankings are merely an illustrative exercise to assess potential cost rankings and viability of implementation of adap- high (VH), high (H), medium (M), or low (L). tation measures and socioeconomic factors. A proper quantifica- The viability analysis of adaptation measures is tion of these parameters is needed before further interpretations can be made. based on the difference between their costs and
30 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Table 8 Social and Environmental Viability of Adaptation Options in Four Crops ADAPTATION MEASURES Implementa- Management Changes in tion of Climate Agricultural of varieties sowing dates insurance and forecasts and research and Irrigation and and crop and crop agricultural early warning Market extensionCrop flood control changes rotations subsidies systems access servicesVIABILITY E S A E S A E S A E S A E S A E S A E S AQuinoa M H M L M H H L VH L H H M VH VH H VH VH L M HPotato M H M L M H H L VH L H H M VH VH H VH VH L M HMaize M H L L M L H L VH L H H M VH VH H VH VH L M HSoy M H L L L L H L VH L H H M VH VH H H H L M H their benefits. Table 6 shows that a high cost is example, investments in rural roads can also be associated with both soft and hard planned adap- an important adaptation strategy because they tation needs including: a) construction/renova- increase access to markets for agricultural inputs tion of irrigation and flood control infrastructure; and outputs. The implementation of policies that b) management of varieties and crop changes increase access to markets—bridging two vulnera- (including research and extension systems); c) ble sectors, infrastructure and agriculture—could creation of insurance and agricultural subsidies be implemented at a smaller scale for small-scale (see box 2); and d) access to climate forecasts and farmers, and complemented by additional macro- early warning systems. A low cost was assigned economic measures for large-scale farmers. Table for the changes in cropping calendars and rota- 8 suggests that planned adaptation actions— tions –mainly considered an autonomous adapta- including increased irrigation resources and flood tion action done by farmers. Notably, the same control measures, as well as the implementation actions are also considered to have the highest of knowledge support for improved analysis of benefits in return (Table 7) making a case for the climate science—are highly costly and hard to prioritization of these actions in the agriculture implement in Bolivia. sector. Table 7 also shows that soft adaptation measures, such as improving extension services Given the vast agroecological diversity and and increasing access to markets, also require sig- socioeconomic characteristics of agricultural nificant investments up front, yet they also offer producers in Bolivia, any adaptation measure a high socially and environmentally sustainable will need to be evaluated in relation to its pro- benefits in the longer term. ductive environment. Accordingly, decision makers should devise adaptation strategies that Robust adaptation options are also viewed in include medium- and long-term measures, even terms of large co-benefits and interlinkages. For if they require larger up-front investments.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 31 Box 2 Agriculture Insurance Agriculture Insurance can also be considered a complementary measure for adaptation, yet its implementation might differ depending on the structure and size of the farming system. For example, the design and implementation plan for agricultural insurance schemes in the Altiplano for small-scale family producers would differ drastically from the type of approach that would be needed for areas like Santa Cruz, where most of the production is carried out by large-scale farm- ers. As a direct response to the need for agricultural insurance, the newly developed National Development Plan (2010–15) is considering a universal crop insurance scheme under the principle of universality of access (all farmers) and risk diversification. This insurance will cover the losses generated by climatic effects—floods, droughts, hailstorms, and frost—and will cover the 650,000 production units representing a total of 2,046,335 hectares. Of this total, 54 percent (1,094,257 ha) are dedicated to the cultivation of oilseeds, 38 percent to (772,389 ha) cereals, and almost 9 percent to quinoa, potatoes, and other crops.
32 F IV E ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 33Sector Analysis:Water ResourcesSector Description of floods and prolonged droughts. In order to evaluate these impacts, two indicators were devel-Water resources are abundant in Bolivia. Aver- oped that can estimate the impact of climateage rainfall is about 1,200 mm.17 Despite high variability on water access. The indicators canevaporation rates, average water allocation is high evaluate future estimates of water availabilityat approximately 45,000 m3 per capita per year annually and changes inter-annually.(Ministry of Environment and Water 2008). How-ever, natural water supply presents both a marked ■■ Annual variability: Despite the three sce-geographical and seasonal variability: 45 percent narios forecasting different changes in naturalof total rainfall falls within 3 months (December– supply levels, the study shows a similar geo-February), with values from 600 to 100 mm in graphical annual distribution of water for allthe cold Altiplano and less-cold central-southern three. On an annual basis, most watersheds invalley regions, and values up to 2,000 mm in the the highlands (Altiplano), central/south valley,warm lowlands, with maximum values of 5,000 and Chaco regions would present a short gapmm in certain areas of the transition from the between demand and supply levels.18valley to the lowlands. ■■ Inter-annual water availability: Change inImpact and Vulnerability to Climate the monthly cumulative water deficit serves asChange in Rural Areas a proxy indicator to measure how much more water would need to be stored in the futureAccording to most future climate projections, compared to the present, assuming that all theaccess to water resources in rural areas will be necessary storage capacity to meet demandimpacted by two major water-related climate during the dry season is met today.risks: gradual changes in the magnitude anddistribution of precipitation and temperature, 18 Problems of water scarcity are likely to worsen in the south ofand changes in the frequency and magnitude of the valley region. The dry scenarios show a higher magnitudeextreme events; that is, above average occurrence of scarcity problems in all the affected watersheds. The wet scenario, on the contrary, shows no problems in western water- sheds of the highlands, since this scenario forecasts an important increase in rainfall there. Basins with high differences in upstream17 1,146 mm reported by Aquastat, 1,459 mm from PNCC (2007), and downstream rainfall are expected to suffer high competition 1,189 mm estimated from CRU data for water uses (for example, La Paz watershed).
34 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Figure 12 Projected Water Availability Index by 2050: Current, Wet, and Dry Scenarios Annual Water Deficit Risk High Medium Low Baseline Bolivia Wet Scenario Bolivia Dry ScenarioFigure 12 below shows the distribution of the upstream-downstream regulation will reinforceexpected water availability index by 2050 by the these impacts.20three modeled scenarios.19 This indicator mea-sures the relative difference (high, medium, low) This study also undertook an assessment ofbetween water supply and demand levels on an water availability for crops.21 Results show futureannual basis. Under the dry scenario, the entire impacts in rainfed agriculture caused by a reduc-highland area (Altiplano), mid-center valley tion in dry season rainfalls and an increase inregions, and Chaco region would need to increase water deficit. Many areas that are currently rain-their storage capacity significantly. In this case, fall abundant, and where more than one harvestthe three scenarios show small differences among per year today is feasible, might become morethem because the differences in natural water vulnerable if rainfall seasonality shortens andsupply during the dry season are small for the evapotranspiration increases. The Chaco, Alti-three models in the southwest. If the extra stor- plano, and plains watersheds (Low Grande basinage capacity is not satisfied, water stress during in Santa Cruz) are the areas where the threethe dry season would increase, which would alsoreduce the possibility to expand irrigation in the 20 Bolivia should upgrade its hydrometeorological informationarea. These vulnerable basins are expected to suf- flows, improving the data sources, and current technical capacity to understand the hydrological responses of the watersheds tofer high competition for water usage, with strong water cycle changes. This would be a key contribution to a solidpotential to trigger social conflicts in particularly IWRM strategy. Future steps could include a national network of early warning systems, starting with the critical watershedswater-stressed areas during the dry seasons. Inad- mentioned in this study. These are very cost-effective measures ifequate water management practices and lack of implemented adequately, meaning that the gains in the medium- to-long term can make really make a difference. 21 This measure takes into account future water stress (the differ-19 Detailed information on the parameters for the water availability ence between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration); index are described in the water resource background paper. See changes in rainfall seasonality; and the extension of cropped tables 22 and 23 in the annex for detailed values and evaluation land that is not irrigated. For further information on impacts on criteria agriculture, please refer to the agricultural study.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 35scenarios reveal the need for more improved of anticipation of the event; inefficient applica-water availability for agricultural production. The tion of water for irrigation; deforestation, whichdry scenarios show greater impact for these basins constrains aquifer recharge; overpopulation; anddue to higher water stress values. The crop water excessive consumption in some areas. All theseavailability indicator should be a good proxy to factors contribute to the overall degradation ofdetermine the most vulnerable watersheds, where the watershed. Droughts have already causedexpanding irrigation would be a key adaptation major damages, mainly in the rural productivemeasure for coping with changing rainfall pat- sectors of agriculture and livestock production.terns as well as a reduction in water availabilityfor crops (please see Annex 1).22 Climate change and the rapid melting of glaciers are expected to exacerbate water shortages in theTwo other vulnerability indicators were evaluated arid and semi-arid valleys and in the highlands.for rural areas: exposure to floods and droughts. The highland areas are particularly sensitive toFloods are the most recurrent extreme event (50 water shortages because these areas lack reser-percent of events according to VIDECICODE in voirs necessary to ensure water availability duringthe period 2002–08, as reported by PNCC 2008). the dry seasons. An observed increase in runoffAlmost every rainy season, rivers of the Iténez, has only been temporary. In addition, glacialIchilo-Mamoré, or Beni basins overflow, inundat- retreat represents an additional problem. In manying naturally floodable lowlands, but also affect- places, glaciers act as a buffer for water availabilitying small towns and cities, crops, pastures, and during dry periods. Glaciers in Bolivia are shrink-livestock. Ten million hectares in the Beni plains ing at an alarming rate, which will reduce waterare naturally floodable (CAF 2000). According to supply for millions of people, particularly thosethe analysis on water cycles and projected precipi- living in urban centers. Farmers and the localtation changes, flood events are likely to continue biodiversity will be negatively affected. The pres-to occur in several Bolivian watersheds.23 ent study does not include a detailed analysis of glacier retreat, as there are still large uncertaintiesDroughts are usually associated with El Niño associated with future surface water availabilityevents, but their frequency and distribution and dynamics of glaciers in the Altiplano. Luck-are not easy to predict. Basically, all the Alti- ily, there are several ongoing studies—such as theplano, mid-south valley, and Chaco regions are World Bank’s Adaptation to the Impact of Rapid Gla-exposed to long dry periods (see Annex 1, Water cier Retreat in the Tropical Andes Project—that shouldResources and Impacts, maps 16 and 17). Apart help improve our understanding of glacier retreatfrom being naturally exposed to long dry periods and its impact on climate change and relatedand desertification, these events have an impact adaptation options.due to lack of preparedness, as indicated bypoor water storage capacity and bad manage-ment of water resources at the watershed level; Vulnerability of Waterunder-exploitation (and bad exploitation in some Resources Infrastructure tocases) of groundwater; poor forecasting and lack Climate Change22 For more information on the vulnerability and impact indicators, data assessment and data used for this analysis please see the water resources full report (Annex 1). Water infrastructure is underdeveloped in Bolivia.23 Maps of exposed watershed are presented in the water resources Despite presenting a high seasonality in water background paper. These maps were developed by combin- availability in the most populated and driest areas ing information on the extension of floodable areas and the frequency with which floods occur. of the country, storage capacity is very low, with
dom ind mining 36 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Figure 13 Water Demand by Sector at Year 2000 and 2050 TOTAL WATER DEMAND YEAR 2000 (HM3) TOTAL WATER DEMAND YEAR 2050 (HM3) 281 585 271 72 43 117 1,052 2,971 AGRICULTURE DOMESTIC INDUSTRIAL MINING only 460 hm3 dedicated to storage (approxi- percent in traditional systems to 35 to 50 percent in mately equivalent to only 46 m3 per capita).24, improved systems. Irrigation for agricultural pur- 25 Existing dams are mainly designed for hydro- poses accounts for 84 percent of water withdrawal power generation and irrigation purposes. Water in the country. However, in 2007,28 the extracted supply and sanitation coverage, despite recent water only irrigated less than 300,000 hectares (less improvements,26 remains low, particularly in rural than 11 percent) out of a total cropped area of 4 and peri-urban areas. In 2007, 74.5 percent of the million has. Irrigation demand for agriculture pur- population had access to water (87.5 percent in poses is expected to still increase in the future, as urban areas, and 50.3 percent in rural areas). With shown in Figure 13. regard to sanitation, 53.7 percent of the urban population had access to sanitation while only 36.5 percent in rural areas.27 The Altiplano and plains Adaptation Options: regions have a very unequal distribution of water Rural Water Resources29 resources and irrigation infrastructure. The effi- ciency of irrigation systems varies from 18 to 30 According to the impact and vulnerability assess- 24 Data provided by GTZ-Proagro ment of water resources mentioned above, 25 This is low if compared with other neighboring countries such as Perú (100m3 pc) and Ecuador( 540m3 pc) selected adaptation options were identified as 26 From 2001 levels, the annual increase in access to water has been 0.3 percent, while access to sanitation has increased 0.85 percent, 28 Own estimates from PRONAR (2005) data and National Inven- according to the National Sanitation Plan. tory of Irrigation (2000) 27 Data from National Sanitation Plan (updated version, August 29 See table 7 in Water Resources- Annex 1-for further evaluation 2009) of adaptation measures developed in this section.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 37crucial in three main areas: (1) recurrent floods region. Moreover, reforestation reduces the riskand droughts; (2) water access for agriculture; and of landslides and sedimentation discharge.(3) annual and intra-annual water scarcity. Spe-cific options are also listed for each area. ■■ Payment schemes for environmental services in specific areas. Payments for(1) Adapting to recurring floods and environmental services, in particular wheredroughts upstream activities may affect water uses down-Both soft and hard measures are necessary. Impor- stream, should be considered. These measurestant actions would include: can be applied in different contexts and attached to any of the previously mentioned adaptation■■ An improved hydrometeorologi- measures. In Bolivia, while buying and selling cal disaster prevention strategy. An environmental goods and services is a particu- improved disaster prevention strategy is larly sensitive political issue (Robertson and needed to increase resilience and adaptive Wunder 2005), payments for watershed services capacity toward extreme events is vital, espe- schemes are being explored due to severe land cially if these events are expected to occur use and water problems (Box 3). with increased frequency as projected by cli- mate models. This strategy should involve the (2) Adapting to improved water access development of a sound hydrometeorological for agriculture information system and an adequate risk man- Some adaptation actions include: agement institutional framework that ensures efficient coordination among institutions. ■■ Expansion of Irrigation. Under pro- Disaster prevention plans should be imple- jected dry scenarios, drought-prone basins mented down to the local level with the nec- will require the transformation of currently essary technology and infrastructure in place. rainfed areas into irrigated areas. This will Planning across scales of governance, aligning involve improving water storage infrastruc- interests, and ensuring policy cohesion will be ture30 in the dry sub-basins of the Altiplano, necessary to ensure the realization of an effec- mid-south valley regions, and Chaco.31 The tive disaster prevention strategy. This is partic- expansion of irrigated areas should be care- ularly true with regard to floods: development fully analyzed due to the potentially high of a network of early warning systems at the water constraints in these regions. Detailed national level is a major priority. According to supply and demand analysis at the watershed results from the water resource impact study (or micro-basin) level (see Annex 3: National (Annex 1), this network should first address Irrigation Program, Mizque Basin, 2004–14) priority watersheds, including Niquisi, Cha- are required for projected critical areas where pare, Grande Bajo, Yapacani, Mapiri-Coroico, new irrigation projects are planned. Moreover, Mizque, and Bermejo. irrigation could also be expanded from sur- face diversion or groundwater exploitation—■■ Canalization. Canalization of river chan- although additional analysis of groundwater nels, dykes, and upgrading drainage systems in population centers. 30 Refer to the irrigation section for further details on different stor- age options and their suitability in different contexts.■■ Reforestation. Reforestation is a cost-effec- 31 The Water Availability Index in 2050 and the Increase in Water tive option to combat severe erosion and can Storage Indicator take into account a projected increase in demand for irrigation in all these basins, according to the irriga- reduce watershed degradation in the valley tion demands determined by the National Irrigation Plan.
38 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Box 3 Rio Los Negros, Bolivia –Beehives and Barbed Wire Within the Los Negros catchment in Bolivia, the NGO Fundación Natura is using external funding sources to facilitate payments between upstream and downstream farmers in the Santa Rosa com- munity, covering some 250 km2 within the catchment. Farmers who agree not to extend their area of cultivation into the cloud forest are provided with one beehive for every 10 hectares of forest conserved. In the second year of operation, the farmers requested and received barbed wire instead of beehives. The external funds used to buy the beehives and the barbed wire have been supple- mented by two payments from the local municipality. One of the greatest challenges, but also one of the most important benefits of the program, has been to build trust between all the stakeholders in the Los Negros catchment. Source: (Asquith and Vargas 2007) availability and replenishment should also others. This could be done by establishing quotas, be considered, as discussed below—without or more effectively by price regulations, which further necessity to increase storage capacity can incorporate social equity criteria. In this case, basins with greater water availability. Irriga- a detailed supply-demand economic analysis of tion would then guarantee protection against water uses is required in order to incorporate dry spells in the wet season and help expand opportunity costs into water prices. cropping to the dry season. Where groundwater resources are still underex-■■ Make irrigation practices more effi- ploited, increasing water availability is feasible. cient and introduce new water sav- However, in Bolivia relatively little is known ing technologies. As water for irrigation about the dynamics of groundwater resources accounts for more than 90 percent of total and associated production capacity. Thus, demand, these improved practices and effi- while groundwater resources are exploited cient technologies should significantly reduce intensively in specific areas such as El Alto or water demand. Cochabamba, the possibility to increase sup- ply by extracting groundwater in a sustainable(3) Adapting to (annual and seasonal) way could be realized in other watersheds. Thiswater scarcity entails a whole range of physical measures, butAccording to the vulnerability and risk assess- also includes regulatory and policy options toment undertaken for this study, there are certain evaluate the capacity and recharge potential ofareas in the southwest where it is probable that groundwater aquifers.annual water supply will not suffice to meet totaldemand at current development rates. It is there- Additional measures include:fore important to develop adaptation measuresthat promote water storage and allow for reduc- ■■ Storage infrastructure. Current storagetion in water demand. Such measures include infrastructure needs to be revised, upgraded,the reallocation of water supply at the watershed and increased. The size and purposes oflevel for different users, establishing clear property the new storage infrastructure should berights, and prioritizing certain uses with respect to determined as a function of each basin’s
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 39 Table 9 Examples of measures for best use of existing water resources Macro-region Municipality Community Measure Chaco Charagua San Francisco Micro-irrigation system construction and making use of river water Altiplano Carangas Curahuara Uta Jila Manasaya Drilling wells and installing hand pumps for drinking water Valleys Saipina Oconi Construction of a storage dam on the river Oconi Valleys Vitichi Chapicollo Underground storage tank* * A very ancient traditional practice which consists of burying in the bed of the quebradas (small rivers which run only when it rains) a large tank for storing water. This resembles a swimming pool with a lid on it and is buried a few meters deep under the sand. The device has porous walls to capture water and has a small aperture where water can be extracted with the use of buckets. The people in the communities recount that their ancestors always used this method but younger generations are not familiar with it. Table 10 Examples of rainwater harvesting Macro-region Municipality Community Measure Altiplano Carangas Curahuara Uta Jila Manasaya Construction of atajados for the irrigation of bofedales Valleys Tarvita La Silla Construction of 50 earth atajados with capacity of 4000c.m. characteristics. Tradeoffs should be considered sanitation services.32 The current access to among storage sizes, from small-scale infra- water and sanitation services across the coun- structure such as community-based “atajados” try must increase. A priority measure will be to large multipurpose dams such as the Misi- to extend existing urban networks to the peri- cuni project in Cochabamba. These tradeoffs urban areas that currently lack access to water need to consider overall economic and social and sanitation services. Rapid growth of these benefits and costs in the long term. (See Annex areas needs to be planned in advance to ensure 1, Water Resource Impacts, for a set of differ- adequate service.33 ent typologies for this particular use.) Studied communities also provided examples of■■ Water Transfers. Although water trans- adaptation options for improved water manage- fers have high financial and social costs, this ment categorized into three areas: 1) improved action can guarantee water access from basins use of existing water resources (Table 9); 2) con- that have a water surplus to those that are struction of infrastructure for rainwater harvest- water-deficient. This measure is already under ing (Table 10); and 3) improvement and expansion implementation at the micro-basin scale in the of existing water systems (Table 11). The tables valley and Altiplano regions. The amount of below provide examples of these types of mea- transferred water should be carefully assessed. sures prioritized in different communities.■■ Water reutilization. Large-scale water reuti- 1. Use of existing water resources: building infra- lization is costly; however, water reutilization at structure (construction of dams etc) to harness the household level can be a very cost-effective measure to save water in urban areas. 32 See urban water section of this report 33 A qualitative classification of each adaptation measure men-■■ Sanitation for peri-urban area. The tioned above is in Annex 3, Water Resource Impacts. Additional main adaptation need for rural and peri-urban information includes the regional and climate change scenario to which they are applicable, based on the climate change effects populations is increased access to water and and impacts described in the previous sections.
40 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Table 11 Examples of improvement or expansion of existing systems Macro-region Municipality Community Measure Chaco Charagua San Francisco Upgrading and expansion of drinking water system Chaco Villa Vaca Guzman Aguayrenda Repairs to tapping point, construction of holding tank and installation of pressurized irrigation Plains Yapacani August 15 Emergency repairs to drinking water system and Educa- tion Center Table 12 Seasonality in Irrigation Systems (hectares) Rivers Slopes Wells Reservoirs Total Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer Annual 40,346 114,185 3,044 10,826 6,788 7,372 21,428 22,043 226,032 Source: National Inventory of Irrigation Systems (PRONAR, 2000) available water sources such as rivers, water the resilience of the agriculture sector to climate catchment areas and underground aquifers. change in 2050.2. Rainwater harvesting: building infrastructure Current irrigation infrastructure to capture and store rainwater, involving the construction of artificial reservoirs and atajados Where water is scarce, irrigation has made agricul- (small dams) and providing facilities for har- ture viable. Although limited, irrigated systems have vesting roof water. developed most rapidly in the Altiplano, the valleys, the Chaco, and eastern plains, covering seven out3. Improvement and expansion of existing water systems: of the nine departments in the country. More than infrastructure and equipment to expand water 80 percent of regulated water flows are used for capture capacity and distribution systems with irrigation in the agriculture sector. According to the a view to avoiding future shortages. Improve- National Inventory of Irrigation, less than 300,000 ment initiatives include training and the provi- hectares were irrigated in the year 2000. More than sion of facilities and equipment to make more 4,000 irrigation systems were used and more than efficient use of water such as pumping systems, 200,000 families benefited. The construction of improved piping layouts and other efforts to small-scale projects has been more intense, constitut- prevent irrigation water losses. ing 92 percent of all irrigation systems. In contrast, large-scale projects comprise 8 percent of irrigation systems, but supply 57 percent of irrigated waterAdaptation Options: (see Annex 4, Irrigation Infrastructure report).Irrigation Infrastructure Most of these systems do not provide water to the entire irrigated area due to limitations in waterIrrigation is one of the most important climate supply. In general, these systems also supply freechange adaptation strategies in Bolivia. It will water during dry periods in the wet season. Sea-help ensure an adequate supply of water for food sonality in the application of irrigation is a verysecurity and agricultural production. This study important aspect to consider, given that it defineshas analyzed different approaches for enhancing crop market prices. Table 12 summarizes the irri-irrigation projects with the objective of increasing gated areas by catchment type and season.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 41More than 60 percent of the area covered by irriga- Given that the projected tendency is for rainfall totion systems is irrigated during summer (the rainy be concentrated in fewer months during the year,season) and only 32 percent of the area can use it is clear that the construction of reservoirs willirrigation during winter (the season with the high- be an important strategy for irrigation to provideest demand for water). At the same time, more than water to agriculture under new projected dry sce-60 percent of the irrigated area is covered by river narios. Adaptation measures in irrigation will needcatchments and 20 percent of the water comes from to follow three strategic pillars:reservoirs. However, reservoir supply water for irri-gation in 19 percent of the total irrigated area. 1. Ensure an adequate supply of water for crops through the construction of infrastruc-Additional infrastructure needs to ture for regulating and storing water. This willadapt to climate change help address seasonal variation in water supply and increased requirements for crop water.Reservoirs guarantee complimentary irrigationduring summer and store water for winter, a period 2. Increase efficiency in water use andwhen water is very much needed for agriculture. management through improvements inRiver catchments supply the highest amount of water distribution infrastructure, improve-water in the country. This is because of the low ments in irrigation application techniques, andinvestment costs needed for water river catchment technical assistance for a more efficient man-projects. However, future projections indicate agement of irrigation systems.increased seasonal variability in the supply of waterfor irrigation. At present, due to limited infrastruc- 3. Exploit residual urban water suppliesture, most of the water is available during the wet for irrigation through appropriate treat-season, while water scarcity occurs during winter. ment before its application to crops.
42 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSIntegration of climate change into national irri- costs34 as a function of volume of water regulatedgation projects will not only imply reassessing for the main adaptation measures discussed inprojects that take into account additional crop this study.35 Figure 15 represents a distributionwater requirements, but also designing hydraulic of the type of dams and associated costs to date.infrastructure so that (a) the system has enough The green area represents dams with a high cost-operational flexibility to assure an efficient use of benefit ratio. These are dams that have alreadywater, taking into account seasonal variations in been built in places with the highest potential;water supply; (b) infrastructure has the capacity thus, rehabilitation would be the only option toto withstand extreme climatic events of greater climate-proof these structures. The pink area rep-magnitude than historically observed; and (c) resents the majority of the dams built in the valleyinfrastructure is designed with a longer lifetime area and the Altiplano. The construction of theseand increased volume in mind. dams has followed certain eligibility criteria that limit the amount of investment per irrigated hect-Although it is an ambitious target to plan and are and household.implement additional irrigation infrastructure, it isimportant to pursue an integrated water manage- The current outlook for new construction of damsment strategy. Drought-prone watersheds should is outside of the eligibility criteria established at theemphasize the exploitation of surface resources sector level, meaning that there are not many eli-in wet periods, allowing aquifer recharge and gible areas left for new dams that would representexploitation of available groundwater sources a high benefit/cost ratio for investors. Therefore,during dry season. in order to integrate climate change impacts, these criteria should be made flexible enough to allow forComparative analysis of structural a greater number of households to benefit underadaptation strategies in irrigation the future climate change challenges. The blue area in the graph represents the current situationFigure 14 represents the adaptation strategies and where there is a lower benefit-cost ratio under newmeasures in irrigation that were considered and initiatives. A summary of the water infrastructureevaluated as important adaptation options: water project costs is presented in Table 13.storage and regulation, water harvesting, surfacewater catchments, sub-surface water catchments, “Atajados” is another relevant infrastructure for waterand groundwater catchments. collection at the local level. These water catchments are normally implemented as water harvesting proj-Detailed analysis of each one is described in ects that include several atajados for a community.Annex 4. Specific attention was devoted to the This type of measure has been very popular in localanalysis of large structures to estimate costs and communities due to its lost cost and maintenancefeasibility. needs. An atajado is constructed for every family; the typical cost is $3,500 to $5,500, with a storage capacity between 1,000 and 2,500 m3.Estimated Costs ofStructural Adaptation 34 Costs have been standardized to 2009 bolivianos based on aMeasures for Irrigation index of construction costs available at the National Statistical Institute. 35 This range of costs is based on a relatively small sample of projects and should not be interpreted as the true values. Fur-A review of projects executed between 1995 and thermore, it should be noted that the country has very diverse physio-geographic characteristics, which implies that projects2008 was used to construct a range of infrastructure with similar volumes have significant differences in costs.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 43 Figure 14 Adaptation Strategies and Measures ADAPTATION ADAPTATION STRATEGIES MEASURES CONSTRUCTION STORAGE AND DAMS REGULATION REHABILITATION CONSTRUCTION WATER FAMILY RESERVOIRS HARVESTING “ATAJADOS” REHABILITATION DIRECT COLLECTION SURFACE WATER CATCHMENT “TIROLESE” FILTERING GALLERIES INVENTORY OF WELLS, SUB-SURFACE WATER CATCHMENT MONITORING OF “TAJAMAR” RECHARGE RATES, WATER QUALITY, ETC. PERFORATION GROUNDWATER WELL CATCHMENT REHABILITATIONIn the case of high-technology irrigation sys- Estimation of additional storagetems, the cost is between $2,800 and $3,600 capacity for irrigation andper hectare,36 depending on the area where it is estimated potential costsinstalled. In addition to this cost there are oper-ation and maintenance costs, as well as train- This section presents a theoretical framework toing costs. The benefit of these systems is the estimate adaptation requirements for additionalpossibility of doubling the efficiency of applied storage capacity needed to provide water for irri-irrigated water. gation in periods of water deficits. The underlying objective is to compensate for the new variation in36 Manual de Riego Tecnificado - PIEN - 2008 (P. Hoogendam – water supply due to climate change for a given C. Ríos)
44 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Figure 15 Water Supply vs. Cost—Dams $9,000,000 $8,000,000 $7,000,000INFRASTRUCTURE COST US$ $6,000,000 BENEFIT LOW COST $5,000,000 CURRENT TREND $4,000,000 $3,000,000 BENEFIT MEDIUM COST $2,000,000 $1,000,000 BENEFIT HIGH COST 0 275,000 475,000 538,950 700,000 746,000 772,000 1,037,000 1,064,000 2,400,000 2,960,448 3,000,000 3,100,000 4,300,000 11,000,000 REGULATION VOLUME M3 SCARCE DAMS GRATER AMOUNT OF CONSTRUCTED DAMS CURRENT TENDENCY OF DAM IMPLEMENTATION agriculture water demand. Projections of agricul- Table 13 Summary of Infrastructure Costs ture water demand were based on assumptions Regulated Volume Infrastructure Costs about the future expansion of irrigation in the m3 $US country (see Annex 4).37 DAMS 275,000–600,000 300,000–825,000 The estimation of adaptation needs and styl- 600,000–1,000,000 220,000–1,700,000 ized cost of storage capacity follows a four-step approach: (1) estimation of water supply in 2050; 1,000,000–3,000,000 340,000 –1,600,000 (2) estimation of water demand in 2050; (3) esti- 3,000,000–4,300,000 900,000–5,900,000 mation of monthly accumulated deficit (supply 4,300,000–11,000,000 5,600,000–5,900,000 and demand balance); and (4) estimation of the SURFACE CATCHMENTS total cost of adaptation, defined in terms of the 70,000–200,000 39,000–140,000 cost of building additional storage capacity (see 200,000–325,000 110,000–278,000 Annex 4). 325,000–560,000 184,000–280,000 37 Due to time and data constraints, additional crop water require- 560,000–1,300,000 280,000–505,000 ments due to higher temperatures were not considered in the esti- mation of agriculture water demands. Furthermore, the amount SUB-SURFACE CATCHMENTS of infrastructure for storage capacity is assumed to be constant 70,000–200,000 50,000–135,000 with respect to the present; in other words, there is no growth of storage capacity in the no-climate-change baseline. 200,000–300,000 93,000–187,000 300,000–400,000 147,000–325,000
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 45 Table 14 Changes in Water Supply for Dry and Wet Climate Scenarios of 2050 Percentage Variation with respect to the baseline Santa Cocha- Chuqui- National SCENARIO Cruz bamba La Paz Oruro Potosí Tarija saca Average DRY +0.60% -6.79% -10.45% -15.08% -10.99% -3.29% +1.63% -6.34% WET -7.33% +8.19% +17.72% +14.40% +14.38% +9.16% +3.08% +8.51% Table 15 Projected Annual Irrigation Water Demand in 2050 Measured in millions m3 Cocha- Country Santa Cruz bamba La Paz Oruro Potosí Tarija Chuquisaca total 456.28 443.70 261.96 169.21 654.08 426.87 402.15 2,814.25Estimation of Water Supply for 2050 identify future storage needs, it was assumed inEstimating changes in water supply is described these new calculations that there will be a need toin detail in Annex 1. For comparison purposes, use 70 percent of irrigation water during the drymonthly water supply was aggregated from the season (from April to November) by 2050. Tableriver basin to the department level for the seven 15 presents annual irrigation water demand indepartments that apply irrigation in the country. 2050 by department.Table 14 contains the variation of monthly watersupply for the two climate scenarios studied. The Water Supply and Demand Balance in 2050variation is measured in percentage terms com- A monthly water supply and demand balancepared to the present situation. was done to estimate a shortage of water in the dry season or an excess of water in the wet sea-The national average of changes in water supply son. By comparing both figures, it is possible toshows an increase in water supply of 8.51 per- obtain estimates of the additional water needs tocent for the wet scenario and a decrease of 6.34 alleviate the monthly deficits that could poten-percent for the dry scenario. Santa Cruz (plains) tially be obtained from water storage of monthlyexhibits a reversal in trends for the dry and wet surpluses. The monthly deficit for the dry peri-scenarios, which can mean that more rain will ods was aggregated for the entire year to obtainoccur in the dry season. the annual storage capacity needs at the depart- ment level by 2050 (Table 18).38Estimation of Water Demand for 2050The estimation of future irrigation water demand As shown in Table 16 for Santa Cruz, the GCM(up to 2050) was based on existing calculations to project changes of rainfall precipitations will2015 by the Vice-Ministry of Irrigation, taking also be erratic even under the wet scenarios.into account the projected expansion of irriga- This suggests that rainfall could be concentratedtion and the trend for increasing water regula- in shorter periods during the wet season, whichtion to accommodate irrigation in the dry season. means that monthly water deficits can also occurAccording to the National Inventory of IrrigationSystems, almost 70 percent of irrigation systems 38 It should be noted that this monthly balance cannot take intoprovide water in the wet season, while 30 per- account additional irrigation needs during periods of drought occurring in the wet season; therefore these estimations may havecent provide water in the dry season. In order to a downward bias.
46 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Table 16 Total Accumulated Deficit of Water for Irrigation Measured in millions m3 Santa Cocha- Chuqui- National SCENARIO Cruz bamba La Paz Oruro Potosí Tarija saca Average NO 9.62 39.16 2.62 29.69 220.82 68.79 77.33 448.03 CLIMATE CHANGE DRY 11.37 51.11 11.88 35.34 240.74 72.46 81.06 503.95 WET 11.76 42.54 3.72 31.84 220.06 67.03 80.01 456.96 Table 17 Total Estimated Costs for Water Infrastructure Needs to 2050 Estimated Investment cost US$ Department No Climate Change Dry Climate Scenario Wet Climate Scenario Santa Cruz 10,311,396 12,179,669 12,598,115 Cochabamba 41,959,327 54,758,218 45,573,934 La Paz 2,805,019 12,725,095 3,983,341 Oruro 31,806,015 37,866,677 34,119,795 Potosí 236,592,155 257,931,679 235,780,328 Tarija 73,705,418 77,634,335 71,823,380 Chuquisaca 82,849,966 86,854,946 85,720,325 TOTAL 480,029,296 539,950,620 489,599,217in the wet season (see Annex 4, Figure 13 for fur- the baseline estimated cost to meet water storagether details). needs without climate change (Table 18).Estimation of the cost of implementing It should be noted, however, that the definitionirrigation actions as adaptation measures of adaptation actions and its costs for the irriga-The cost of building or restoring water storage to tion component is a narrow one. Additional costsadapt to new irrigation is defined by the cost of stemming from the optimization of water uses—building additional storage capacity to compen- such as improvements in existing infrastructure orsate for the increase in the annual water deficit technical assistance to improve the application ofdue to climate change. This cost was obtained for irrigation—should also be considered.the two extreme hydrological scenarios in orderto obtain a possible range of costs in addition toa baseline cost with no climate change (Table 17). Water Supply and SanitationThe estimated additional storage capacity does in Urban Areasnot take into consideration additional water needsduring the wet season due to data limitations. Vulnerability to climate changeThe estimated cost of increased adaptation mea-sures for irrigation is around $60 million for the Cities relying on a single water source are moredry climate scenario, and $12 million for the wet exposed than those relying on different sources.scenario to 2050. These costs are in addition to Almost all urban areas within the plains region
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 47 Table 18 Adaptation Cost for Climate Change Scenarios DRY CLIMATE SCENARIO WET CLIMATE SCENARIO Additional Storage Estimated Additional Storage Estimated DEPARTMENT Needs (m3) Investment US$ ** Needs (m3) Investment US$ ** Santa Cruz 1,743,721 1,868,273 2,134,271 2,286,719 Cochabamba 11,945,632 12,798,891 3,373,634 3,614,607 La Paz 9,258,737 9,920,076 1,099,767 1,178,321 Oruro 5,656,619 6,060,663 2,159,528 2,313,780 Potosí 19,916,889 21,339,524 0 0 Tarija 3,666,989 3,928,917 0 0 Chuquisaca 3,737,981 4,004,980 2,679,002 2,870,359 COUNTRY TOTAL 55,926,569 59,921,324 11,446,202 12,263,787 * It is assumed and average consumption of 7,000 m3 per irrigated hectare ** It is assumed an investment cost of 7,500 $us per hectare irrigated by a water storage infrastructurerely exclusively on groundwater. Other cities— These conflicts are likely to increase if the resourcesuch as Sucre or Bermejo—rely exclusively on sur- becomes scarcer. This is an important point toface water. In areas where supply is already below consider in all the areas that have already reacheddemand levels, critical situations can be exacer- the capacity of their source, since any decreasebated by a potential drought, bringing additional in natural supply caused by climate change willwater restrictions on the population.39 Such cities reduce per capita consumption and bring it downare especially vulnerable because surface resources to dangerous levels. The problem of relying on atend to be more susceptible to changes in pre- weak water source can also reinforce other typescipitation and therefore their capacity is reduced of social vulnerabilities. For instance, during thebefore groundwater sources. The cities of La Paz/ drought of 1997 in Cochabamba, tariff collectionEl Alto, Potosí, Yacuiba, Tarija, and Cochabamba rates dropped abruptly since consumers did notrely on sources without enough capacity to satisfy pay for a service they were not receiving (CAF,demand (see Annex 1). Yet, there are also cities like 2000). Moreover, in critical situations, utilitiesCamiri, which is completely reliant on ground- have to purchase water from other sources.water sources that have suffered severe restric-tions during dry periods. Water quality in the raw Climate change will affect the capacity of thesource also can be affected by biological contami- urban utilities to deliver water and sanitationnation or other activities like mining. The lack of services and also the capacity to control floods,adequate protection of the sources increases their since they will become more frequent andlevel of exposure. intense, especially in the plains areas. A sum- mary of potential climate impacts on the urbanIn many cases—such as Cochabamba, Sucre, or water sector is shown in Table 19. The princi-Tarija—the competition for water resources is pal urban areas of the country are exposed tohigh, and social conflicts are frequent between different climate change effects that threatenthe urban utility and different user communities. their capacity to provide safe water and sani- tation. Cities placed in the head of watersheds39 During the drought of 1997 there were severe water restrictions in the urban areas of Cochabamba, Sucre, Potosí, Bermejo, and in the Altiplano and valley regions—such as La Tarija (all of them using surface resources). Paz-El Alto (Titicaca and Beni basins), Sucre,
48 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Table 19 Key Climate Variables in Relation to the Urban Sector Climate Change Effect Impact Increase in water demand due to temperature increase/Problems of food secu- rity/Impacts in agriculture in the rural sector may trigger important increase Temperature increase/ in rural to urban migration, creating strong/unexpected increases in water higher evapotranspiration/ demand/utility is not able to satisfy demand levels decrease in natural supply People without safe access may suffer important health impacts since unpro- tected sources might disappear or present poorer quality Greater precipitation variability/ Storage capacity might not be enough to supply water during the dry season longer dry periods Damage in urban infrastructure Floods Water quality worsenedPotosí (Parapeti-Pilcomayo), and Cochabamba satisfy demand up to 2022. Graphs show, with(Grande)—are more prone to be exposed to both wet and dry scenarios projecting a decreasethreats affecting their water source, since water in natural water supply, that the gap betweenavailability in those areas is significantly less supply and demand will close earlier than whatthan downstream of their corresponding basins. is currently expected. A similar situation existsThese cities are highly exposed to decreasing for Cochabamba, which is currently not meetingrainfall trends, unexpected changes in seasonal- the demand by a gap of almost 50 percent. Bothity, and prolonged droughts. climate change scenarios forecast a decrease in natural supply aggravating the problem.The case of La Paz-El Alto is particularly worry-ing due to the disappearance of the glacial con- Adaptation options for the urbantribution to the superficial runoff, which, though water infrastructurenot properly quantified, will provoke a reductionin the amount of natural water supply and pose The guiding principle to adaptation in urbanan extra threat on this metropolitan area where areas should be, as for rural areas, to developdemand has already matched supply40. A detailed faster.42 The strategy consists of increasing thedescription of each of the vulnerability indica- capacity of water utilities to supply safe water andtors, measuring both climate change effects and sanitation services for the entire population. Thisvulnerability of the water utilities, is presented inAnnex 1. 42 The separation of adaptation from development costs often refers to the concept of the “adaptation deficit,” which captures theFor Cochabamba or Santa Cruz basins, the notion that countries are underprepared for current climate con- ditions, much less for future climate change. Presumably, thesechanges shown by the wet and dry scenarios are shortfalls occur because people are underinformed about climatesimilar. In Santa Cruz, studies have predicted that uncertainty and therefore do not rationally allocate resources to adapt to current climate events. The shortfall is not the result ofcurrent supply41 levels, without taking into any low levels of development but of less than optimal allocations of limited resources, resulting in, say, an insufficient urban drainageclimate change effect into consideration, would infrastructure. The cost of closing this shortfall and bringing countries up to an “acceptable” standard for dealing with current climate conditions—given their level of development—is one definition of the adaptation deficit. The second use of the term40 The water supply system of La Paz-El Alto suffered a scarcity captures the notion that poor countries have less capacity to alert in the wet season of 2008, which was repeated in the fall of adapt to change, whether induced by climate change or other 2009. Emergency measures—such as drilling emergency wells— factors, because of their lower stage of development. A country’s were implemented to meet demand levels in those periods. adaptive capacity is thus expected to increase with development.41 These studies were mentioned in the Strategic Development This meaning is perhaps better captured by the term “develop- Plans. ment deficit.”
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 49should be done by addressing the vulnerabilities already reached that threshold without having toindicated in this analysis. Water supply and sani- deal with climate change; on the other, the cur-tation utilities need to take climate change into rent climatic data available still does not allowaccount when developing their strategic plans in for estimation of that probability with sufficientthe long term. In this sense, a major concern of accuracy.urban planners or utility managers will be howto manage the uncertainty associated with cli- Adaptation options for urban development can bemate change. A reasonable approach would be to divided into three categories, supply-side adapta-estimate the minimum threshold level of natural tion options, demand-side options, and integralsupply of water (or the threshold in rainfall sea- measures and flood control.sonality) at which the utility would have problemsin delivering a safe service. Next, we estimated Supply-side adaptation optionsthe probability for that threshold to occur given Reinforce, improve, protect, and diversifythe different predictions from the climate mod- water sources. This is necessary in order toels. The problem with this approach is that, on strengthen the production capacity of the urbanone side many utilities are already under or have utilities, especially in cities of the arid regions like
50 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS In addition, it will be necessary to ensure protec- tion against extreme rainfall events. This is par- ticularly important for urban centers located in areas with strong rainfall seasonality. Protect water sources to guarantee quality. Hydrogeological studies are being developed in the area of El Alto in order to determine the dynamics of the source. Similar studies would be required for areas with high pressure on water resources such as Cocha- bamba. In some cases, analyses have begun but have not been completed. Extend water supply infrastructure to the entire population, including peri-urban areas. This is a development target already acknowledged in the National Sanitation Plan. If the target is met, nearly all of the main urban centers would boast universal coverage for water and sanitation by 2050. Review storage capacity. A review of storage capacity is necessary to ensure that the existing capacity would consider additional losses due to an increase in evaporation rates and changes in rainfall variability, as well as to climate-proof these storage facilities for floods. In addition, urban planners would be able to anticipate future growth rates of different cities. Improve sanitation infrastructure. It is important to increase the number of houses con- nected to the sewerage network and to treat and discharge effluent safely. Moreover, since increas- ing the number of houses connected to the sewer- age network will take time, it would be necessary toLa Paz, Cochabamba, or Sucre, but also others, reinforce the existing on-site sanitation options inincluding Bermejo or Guayamerin. Taking cli- nonconsolidated urban land, making them flood-mate change into consideration in the utilities’ resistant, only as a temporary measure before thosedevelopment plans implies determining the point areas are incorporated into the network.at which it would be necessary to strengthen theproduction capacity of the utility, not only to deal Demand –side adaptation optionswith expected increase in demand, but also to be Ensure that tariff structures are progres-able to supply water safely during drier periods. sive. Demand-side options would be particularly
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 51necessary for all the urban areas of the arid zone they are integrated into the water managementin the Altiplano, valleys, and Chaco regions, and strategies planned for the entire basin. Water usemore specifically for those presenting high popu- can then be quantified and compared to naturallation growth rates. However, given the current supply in that watershed in order to plan a sus-situation of the urban water sector, supply-side tainable coexistence among all rural/urban users.adaptation options still are the first priority. Utili- Moreover, integrating the city as one elementties should ensure that tariff structures are progres- of the watershed facilitates assimilation of thesive, guaranteeing access for basic consumption “hydrometeorological risk” concept as a key char-and increasing pressure for high nonproductive acteristic of urban planning instruments. Cityuses. In case consumption rates increase in the planners might be able then to determine riskyfuture, supporting the implementation of reuti- areas where, for instance, construction should notlization measures at the household level should be be permitted, or to detect crucial zones wherealso considered, like simple small bio-filters to re- infrastructure is at risk during floods or extremeuse water from the basin to flush toilets. rainfall events. In many cases, it is more cost- effective to implement an early warning systemIntegral measures and flood control than to review, rebuild, or overbuild a drainageIncorporate utilities’ development plans system in consolidated urban land. However, asinto watershed development plans. This mentioned above, these warning systems onlystrategy promotes the inclusion of cities as an make sense if they are framed in the physical con-important element of watershed management so text of the watershed.
52 S IX ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 53Local-level Perspectiveson Adaptation toClimate ChangeThe livelihoods of the poorest families in Bolivia and household interviews were conducted inare based on rainfed agriculture, small-scale fourteen municipalities43,44 (see table 20).livestock farming, and seasonal labor. Better-offfamilies engage in livelihood activities based on The poverty levels of 70 interviewed householdsa combination of rainfed and irrigated agricul- were classified based on indicators such as landture, livestock farming, nonagricultural work, and tenure, livestock holdings, family prestige, chil-temporary migration. Those households most dren’s occupation, and type of housing45. Figureresilient to climate change have livelihood strat- 16 presents the socio-economic stratification ofegies based on irrigated agriculture with less of the interviewed families. This was a relative clas-a rainfed component, semi-free-range livestock sification, constructed by comparing one familyfarming or large-scale livestock farming, dairy, with another, recognizing that what constitutesand occupations in the services sector. The most poor families in one community may be very dif-vulnerable families are those that have elderly, ferent in other communities. Nonetheless, thishandicapped, and young members, as well as classification allowed for an approximation offemale-headed households. the assets holdings of each level. Those familiesFor the purpose of this study, focus group discus- 43 The methodology consisted of a literature review, sampling tosions, community workshops, expert interviews identify the municipalities most vulnerable to climate change today and fieldwork. For the fieldwork, a total of 42 key infor- mants and seventy households (five households per community) were interviewed; forty-five focus group discussions on livelihood strategies were conducted; one national workshop took place Table 20 Number of municipalities with experts of each region under study; and fourteen workshops studied for the social component, that used participatory scenario development techniques were by macro-region held with community representatives of each selected municipal- ity. Fieldwork was conducted by nine private institutions selected Macro-region Number of municipalities for long-standing experience in the municipalities. Altiplano 4 44 A general methodology for the social component was developed by the central EACC team in Washington. Local consultants Valleys 5 tailored this methodology to fit the Bolivian context and best Chaco 2 characterize vulnerability to climate change within the local context. See Annex 5 for more information on methodology of Plains 3 the social component Total 14 45 In the study areas, all of the families are considered to be poor according to the definition of poverty from the National Institute of Statistics.
54 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSconsidered least poor have assets that are five to measures and in some cases survived by con-ten times superior to those of the poorest families. suming less food or resorting to reserves. In theSalient differences in socioeconomic status are latter group, households that continued their tra-mostly explained by ownership of livestock and ditional livelihood strategies did so despite thearable land. The region with the greatest inequal- fact that after many years of adapting to climateity is the Plains macro-region, where indigenous change, their coping strategies were no longerand peasant communities live side-by-side with sufficient. Those mostly consisted of elderly, chil-the agro-industry, large-scale cattle breeders and dren, handicapped people, and single womentimber industries. with few resources who generally relied on assis- tance from families or neighbors.Past Adaptation and …I dedicate myself to milk production; I have a fewCoping Practices cows and in addition, I go from house to house to pick up milk and I sell everything to a business. When there was drought, milk production fell by half due toWe interviewed 70 households about past cop- lack of forage for the animals. I had to survive on this.ing strategies in the event of a flood, drought, I don’t have a husband and my children are too younghailstorm, and/or frost. Fifty percent of those to go work and I cannot abandon my household….interviewed did not engage in new activities to (Case of Juana Mamani, 37 years old,manage the extreme event. These families were Municipality Pucarani, Highlands)either unaffected by the climate event and hadrelatively strong adaptive capacity, meaning a The remaining 50 percent of households inter-diversified livelihood strategy with income-gen- viewed engaged in a diverse range of adapta-erating activities not sensitive to climate, or had tions. Some integrated new activities to theirtoo few resources to invest in new adaptation livelihood strategies—for example, temporary Figure 17 Past Responses toFigure 16 Socioeconomic Strata of Climate Events Local Communities TRANSFORMATION, COMMERCIALIZATION, AND EMPLOYMENT POOR 50% TEMPORARY MIGRATION 36% 17% LESS POOR 9.2% IMPROVED AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES 9% TRADITIONAL PRACTICES POOREST 25% 3% WATER 40.8% MANAGEMENT 10% OTHERS
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 55migration—and others pursued the same activi- Using scenario developmentties but experimented with ways to improve their exercises to envision futuretraditional practices. Figure 17 summarizes the adaptation prioritiesadaptation activities of these families. Based on their climate observations over theOf the 70 households interviewed, 25 households past 20 to 30 years, all community members thatresorted to temporary migration. These families participated in the study believe that future cli-had not previously engaged in migration but felt mate will be characterized by higher tempera-it necessary in order to compensate for economic tures, water scarcity, more irregular rainfall, andlosses (see also Annex 5 for the complete Social a shorter but more intense rainy season. OnlyComponent Report). in the Amazon region do community members expect that rain will fall more frequently thanResults reveal that in order to adapt to changes before, causing increased incidence of flooding.in climate, 17 percent of households interviewed The adaptation measures prioritized by the com-developed new livelihood activities such as the munities were specific in terms of their needs, theproduction of artisan goods or engaging in trade number of beneficiaries at stake, types of pastor local work. This analysis further shows that experiences dealing with climate hazards, theirthe majority of households who did adapt to cli- own cultural criteria, and considered economicmate events resorted to an average of one new values. With the objective of finding tendenciesadaptation measure per event in an attempt to emerging from this diverse and complex set ofcompensate for losses. Twenty-five percent of adaptation strategies, the measures have beenfamilies reverted to ancient indigenous practices, classified into eight types:including rituals to call for rain, creating smoketo combat frosts, and lighting fireworks to com- ■■ Water managementbat hailstorms. ■■ Infrastructure ■■ Improved livestock farmingDuring the local community workshops, par- ■■ Improved agricultural practicesticipants discussed the autonomous changes they ■■ Better environmental managementhave pursued in the past with a view to later dis- ■■ Training and capacity buildingcussing the types of adaptation measures that will ■■ Credit and financebe necessary in the future. In the past, production ■■ Transformation and employmentsystems have gradually changed with little exter-nal support from the state or local institutions. Table 21 and 22 below presents a very wide varietyThe majority of these changes are undertaken of community livelihood strategies in the Plainsautonomously and at their own cost, without and Altiplano regions of Bolivia, respectively. Thisprior planning. As with all innovations in farming, diversity of options can be explained by the fol-the process takes many years and is conducted on lowing factors: first, each strategy tends to reflecta “trial and error” basis. Once local strategies are the specific concerns of an individual community,deemed successful, municipal governments and especially regarding the extent to which the com-local institutions—at the solicitation of commu- munity is exposed and sensitive to climate change.nities—have taken some of these innovations and Adaptation measures identified by communitiestranslated them into large-scale projects. Irriga- and the order of priority assigned to each alsotion and protective infrastructure projects have mirror the kind of measures or investments thatbeen introduced in such a manner in five of the have been pursued (or not) in the communitystudied communities. in the past. In effect, this shows how preferred
56 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Table 21 Prioritized Adaptation Strategies (planned and autonomous) by Community in the Plains Region San Isidro Puerto San Borja Agosto 15 Valparaiso (Yapacani Municipality) (San Ignacio Municipality) (Yapacani Municipality) (San Pedro Municipality) Water supply system for Construction of water hole Emergency water recovery Community flat boat to cattle (aguada) and Educational Center transport produce to market Construction of social Family plots to be fenced Construction of defenses To plant fast-growing housing off on the River Yapacaní vegetables Improved dual-purpose Grain storage system Repair of 5 km of main Domestic irrigation using cattle road in the Agosto 15 waterwheels in orchards community Construction of the Con- Irrigation pumps to be Installing windbreaks in 30 irrigation pumps for dorito Bridge installed rice paddies irrigating family orchards in the Valparaiso community (with river water) Pilot centre for apiculture Construction of artificial Restarting rice produc- 10 irrigation pumps for lift- improvement terracing tion in the Agosto 15 ing river water to irrigate community family vegetable plots Controlling high incidence Construction of furrow ter- To diversify agricultural of weeds in pastures and racing (camellones) production by planting orchards citrus and cocoa Joint production of citrus and coffee Diagnostic study on flower- ing times of local plants Source: community workshopsadaptation strategies depend on the recent history preferred adaptation strategy was strongly influ-of a particular community. For example, com- enced by social preferences. Temporary migra-munities that have benefitted from investments in tion was not prioritized as an adaptation measurewater management schemes that have resulted in in the studied communities. Rather, the logic ofsafer drinking water do not consider water man- the communities in the identification of adapta-agement for improved drinking water to be neces- tion measures was, “What should we do to adaptsary for their future livelihood strategy as they do so that we do not have to abandon the commu-not view the current system as inadequate. nity?” A woman from the municipality of Beni in the Plains region argued:The presence or lack of institutions is a sec-ond determinant for identifying, prioritizing “We do not want to move the community; for theand sequencing adaptation strategies in Bolivia. authorities this is the easy way out. We want to stayWhere local authorities and privatized institu- in the community, even if floods occur. It cost us dearlytions have a history of supporting development, to move our community to this place and it is nowcommunity members will count on their contin- in a strategic location, everybody passes by our port.ued support and prioritize measures that require Assistance should focus on helping us to stay in ourexternal support. Where institutions do not have own place, not to help move us.”a strong presence, prioritized adaptation optionswill not be based on major external support. Thus, social preferences may be more influential determinants of adaptation preferences than eco-With regards to migration, rural communi- nomic rationale. From the above example, oneties’ consideration of migration as a viable and can see that populations will not always opt for
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 57 Table 22 Prioritized adaptation measures by community in the Altiplano Region Chaquilla Contorno Calacoto Pampajasi (Pucarani) Jila Manasaya Uta (Porco) (Calacoto) (Curawara Carangas) Improved water irrigation Construction of wells and Construction of a dam Construction of multifamily management systems to water catchment facilities water system streamline water use and reduce silting Construction of new irriga- Construction of reservoirs Construction of reservoirs Drilling wells and installing tion channels to include hand pumps for drinking water tapping facilities and water water flow chambers for efficient irrigation. Measures to recover Improvement of pastures Build infrastructure for Improving family wells and degraded wetlands (fenc- and fodder dairy herd management installing hand pumps ing, fertilization, irrigation and replanting) Training and user aware- Livestock Infrastructure Management and improve- Improvement of native ness to enable sustainable ment of agricultural grasslands with the use of available resources. production construction of infiltra- tion trenches and planting native grass seeds Construction of roofed Support for farming Management and conser- Construction of atajados livestock shelters and other activities vation of fodder for irrigating wetlands necessary infrastructure to (bofedales) upgrade production Comprehensive animal Management of low-inter- Improvement of dairy health program est loan finance herds To improve reproductive Technical training in various To support the establish- and genetic management. activities ment of a body to produce and sell aggregates Training and awareness To organize a Producers Vegetable production in among livestock raisers for Association solar-heated enclosures the sustainable production and handling of animals. Construction and / or Improvement of productive Handling and production repair of defenses and infrastructure of potato crops retaining walls in cultivated terraced plots. Improvement of irrigation Management and livestock canals and water tapping genetic improvement facilities for efficient use of irrigation water. Opening and / or construc- Processing and marketing tion of drainage ditches to of local products prevent moisture damage to crops. Organic farming using selected native species and varieties tolerant to adverse weather conditions. Training and awareness- raising of community residents to protect and preserve soils used for growing crops Source: Community Workshops
58 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSwealth maximizing options. In Bolivia, where Synthesis of findings on local levelland is closely linked not only with subsistence but perspectives on adaptationalso with culture and identity, indigenous popu-lations may view remaining on ancestral land as Rural and indigenous communities have a longmore important than the pursuit of more lucra- and rich history of systematic observation oftive endeavors elsewhere. the climate; indeed, their survival depends on this capacity. Climate change and increas-Notably, key informant and household interviews ing climate variability mean that many of therevealed that major discrepancies exist between climatic indicators used by these communitiesthe ways that local authorities and communities are becoming less effective. Community work-perceive adaptation to climate change now and in shops revealed that due to an increasing inabil-the future. Most local authorities interviewed con- ity to predict weather patterns, people are insider climate change a problem that will arrive in need of new indicators to diagnose and pre-the future and maintain that investment in infra- dict future variability. Based on their climatestructure projects is the best form of adaptation. observations over the past 20 to 30 years, allIn contrast, communities consider climate change community members that participated in theto be a reality today and discussed the need to study believe that future climate scenarios willdefine strategies that support fundamental trans- be characterized by higher temperatures, waterformations in livelihood activities, rather than scarcity, more irregular rainfall, and a shorterindividual “hard” adaptation measures. but more intense rainy season. Only in the Amazon region is rainfall expected to fall more
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 59frequently than before, causing increased inci- or as single projects, but rather as a complex setdence of flooding. of complementary measures that are comprised of both hard and soft measures. InfrastructureCommunities in the valleys and highlands pri- investments will be insufficient if complementaryoritized adaptation measures related to water efforts are not made to promote capacity build-management, followed by improved agricultural ing, institutional development, and in many cases,and livestock practices. They view drought as the fundamental transformation to underlying logicprinciple threat to their livelihoods. In contrast, and livelihood strategies. In particular, adaptationcommunities from the Chaco and plains regions strategies may imply major changes to productionasserted that improved agricultural practices were systems that will need appropriate technologicala priority and considered water management and organizational adjustments as well. For thismeasures to be of secondary importance. reason, understanding these adaptation measures as a hierarchy with a specific order of executionThe results also demonstrate that communities is essential, as some strategies will depend on theview adaptation strategies not as isolated measures sustainable implementation of others.
60 S EV EN ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 61Cost-benefit Analysisof AdaptationInvestment OptionsThe cost-benefit analysis tool was designed to Water resources sectorallow the integration of climate change vari- ■■ Irrigation (dam, derivation, harvesting, andables into the development of cash flows with undersurface)costs and benefits for climate resilient options. ■■ Treated water supply (dam, wells, and superfi-The analysis also tries to answer the question cial water catchment)of how cost-benefit analysis for regular devel- ■■ Flood control (hydraulic control and territorialopment projects can be affected by climate management)change. Such information can be useful for thedistribution of national budgets and the priori- Agriculturetization and sequencing of adaptation options ■■ Public research (ie: new crop varieties resistantin future public expenditures. Detailed cost- to drought)benefit analysis was done on stylized adapta- ■■ Extension services (ie: introduction of newtion options from two sectors—agriculture and farming techniques)water—based on selected adaptation options ■■ Rural roadsfrom the : National Mechanism of Adaptation ■■ Irrigation techniques (on cultivated land area)to Climate Change (PNCC 2007, 1997) and alsovalidated with the local agriculture and water The cost-benefit analysis was applied to a setresources sector experts. The empirical analysis of adaptation option in terms of financial val-allowed for the derivation of estimated costs of ues (market values) and in socioeconomic termseight adaptation measures in the long term (30 (shadow price). The analysis integrated climateyears46). The water projects were aggregated in change variables (temperature and precipitation)two components: provision of water supply and under dry (worst case scenario) and no-changeflood control. For this analysis, the infrastructure climate scenarios47. Results were interpreted foradaptation options that were analyzed included: these two climate scenarios.46 The analysis evaluates primarily the useful life of projects without 47 At the moment of this analysis data from the wet scenario was major investments for operations and maintenance. Thus it was not available. The dry scenario was considered the worst case not feasible to predict future reinvestments and cash flows of a scenario as “drought “ as it remains one of the biggest challenges project after 30 years. for Bolivia to be resolved in the high altitudes.
62 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSThe cost-benefit analysis consisted of the follow- ■■ Quantification of each outcome in physicaling steps: units ■■ Valuation of each outcome both in financial1. Estimation of investment cost at the and economic monetary terms (that is, at mar-project level ket and shadow prices)■■ Itemization of the physical, engineering, and/ or biological components of each project All evaluated projects had positive socioeco-■■ Quantification of the physical amounts of nomic analysis results (Table 23 below). This materials for each item that will be used in suggests that the projects are robust for any cli- the course of implementing the investment mate scenario and public investment in these project areas is quite justified for the region. Similarly,■■ Estimation of the market value for each all water projects (for irrigation use and flood component (both in financial and economic control) also were positive as crop production terms) on the particular irrigation area is expected to increase significantly if water provision is avail-2. Estimation of avoided damages for able, at least during the most critical phenologi-each investment project cal stages. These results are in agreement with■■ Identification of all possible outcomes (avoided the agriculture and water resources analysis pre- damages or benefits) from the implementation sented before. of the investment alternative Table 23 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Measures in the Agriculture and Water Resources Sectors Economic Analysis Economic Economic Analysis with Climate Change Analysis Baseline (dry scenario) Investment Net actual Net actual Project Name Costs Beneficiaries value IRR value IRR WATER ADAPTATION PROJECTS Potable Water distribution 3,440,553 2,199 3,428,089 24.0% 3,331,530 23.95% Sapecho Persons Potable Water System San 408,345 140 Persons 8,105 12.91% 2,916 12.76% Pedro de Cogotay Wells drilling Chapicollo 317,136 50 Families 187,383 17.35% 151,686 16.83% Flood Control Caranavi 4,052,215 528 Houses 2,658,043 21.5% 2,658,043 21.5% AGRICULTURE ADAPTATION PROJECTS Irrigation Dam San Pedro 11,476,499 147 Ha. 2,583,295 15.74% 4,195,411 17.61% Aiquile Dam restoration Tacagua 313,623,524 907 Ha. (184,275,594) 2.65% (171,580,897) 3.46% (incremental) Elevation of dam wall 120,457,550 907 Has. 9,705,456 14.02% 21,563,503 15.66% Tacagua Dam incremental Irrigation by Derivation 3, 686,740 178 Has. 17,260,185 71.02% 14,874,454 63.01% Buen Retiro Sur Paraisito Small water catchment 1,951,407 32 Has. 115,778 13.94% 347,000 16.41% “Atajados” Aiquile
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 63In the agriculture and water resources studies, measures in Bolivia represent primarily good devel-results suggest that the Altiplano will be favored opment strategies under climate variability.by increased temperatures, while the orientaland Chaco zones will be negatively affected by The cost-benefit analysis presented above repre-increased temperatures and a reduction in pre- sents an example of the use of an improved eco-cipitation. These results are in accordance with the nomic tool for the evaluation of investment projectsspatial distribution of the selected projects, where under a changing climate. However, the selectiondepending on the area, the IRR is reduced due to of projects is limited due to the availability of athese regional impacts. The agriculture projects narrow selection of projects (mostly water projectsshow an increase of the IRR under climate change in the rural area), which do not include large infra-in the highland zones. This suggests that cur- structure projects and urban areas. A detailed cost-rent planned investment in agriculture and water benefit analysis is an important input to be usedresources continue to be robust to climate change, in the process of sequencing and prioritization ofat least under extreme condition. Thus, adaptation different investment adaptation options.
64 EIGH T ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 65Methodology InvestmentPlanning Tool (MIP)for the Selection of Adaptation Optionsunder Future Climate UncertaintySelection of Robust identified as one of Bolivia’s watersheds mostStrategies vulnerable to climate change. This vulnerability is due both to the existing level of poverty in the watershed (Cedeagro 2005, Pronar 2005) and toThe development of the Investments Planning higher expected impacts from droughts. The studyTool (Mixed Integer Mathematical Programming results on water resources (Annex1) identifies theModel - MIP) is an example of investigation into larger Mizque Basin (as defined in the Nationalthe possible effect of climate change on irrigation Watershed Plan) as being one of the more vul-development in Bolivia, identified as a major adap- nerable in the country. However, its vulnerabil-tation need in the agriculture, water resources, and ity is mainly due to a high proportion of peoplesocial components of the study. The development without access to water and sanitation, and itsof the case study intends to evaluate the effect of vulnerability to floods and droughts. It is a par-a changing climate on decisions to make durable ticular hot-spot when analyzing the urban sectorinvestments. In particular, the model developed for due to high competition for water with irrigation.this study permits the investigation of the effect on As part of the National Water Basin Promotioninvestment of (1) a budget constraint, (2) a decision Program (PPPNC), the Ministry of Sustainableto centralize or decentralize the investment deci- Development and Planning prepared the Inte-sions, and (3) the impacts of climate change. The grated Management Plan for the Rio Mizqueresults of this study are illustrative of the major Watershed (Annex 3). The Rio Mizque watershedissues. The watershed planning model developed of the PMIC-Mizque is the downstream part offor this investigation is also intended to become the larger Mizque watershed. The PMIC-Mizquea practical, useful planning tool for the Bolivian study, published in 2005 (Annex 3), provided theauthorities, to be refined and updated as additional background data for this study. These data includeclimate and watershed data become available. an inventory of potential irrigation projects along with their costs and principle characteristics, asThe watershed well as a water balance by sub-basin.The Mizque watershed is a sub-watershed of the In order to explore the effect of climate change onRio Grande macro-watershed, which has been the economic and physical viability of the irrigation
66 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSprojects identified in the PMIC-Mizque study, the Datadata were projected forward to 2090 (to allowmodel to readjust beyond 2050) and combined The data for this study were provided by thewith 2090 climate projections to generate a mixed PMIC-Mizque study. This study provides theinteger programming model. This model simulates following, which were used by the current adap-the decision process of a planner who invests in tation study: (a) a water balance for the 22 sub-irrigation programs through time to maximize the basins in the watershed; (b) projections of futurebenefits they provide to the residents of the water- water demand up to 2014; (c) identification of 74shed. His/her investment choice is constrained potential irrigation projects in the watershed; (d)by financial resources and water resources. Three investment cost, number of families benefited,different annual budget constraints are explored; and additional irrigated hectares for each project;$2 million, $4 million, and $6 million. Any money (e) cropping patterns and water demand by crop-not spent can be saved (at the social discount rate) ping pattern in each sub-basin; and (f) cash-flowand accumulated for the future. As irrigation must by cropping pattern in each sub-basin.50compete with potable water and water for animals,two policies are explored: (1) decentralization of Methodologybudgets to the sub-basin level vs centralized Miz-que watershed-level watershed planning, and (2) The methodology for the Investment Planningmaximizing the number of families receiving irri- Tool was designed using development plans forgation vs maximizing the economic benefits from the Mizque Watershed by the National Water-irrigation.48 The model was run under three cli- shed Plan (Plan Nacional de Cuencas, PNC). Themate scenarios, “wet,” “dry,” and the current cli- use of the official data provides an opportunity tomate.49 These rainfall regimes correspond to those validate and evaluate identified potential projectsdiscussed in section 5 above. under the new climate change constraints. This represents a plausible way of integrating adapta-Exploring the effect of budgetary decentralization tion to climate change into development planswas considered a high priority in the face of the in regard to the prioritization and sequencing ofpotential conflict between the well-known benefits projects within a planned portfolio, but taking aof watershed-level management and Bolivia’s new changing climate into consideration.policies to support budgetary decentralization. Oneof the objectives, therefore, was to see how important As described above, a mixed integer mathemati-the possible tradeoff between maximizing overall cal programming model (MIP) was constructedwatershed benefits and decentralized management to extend the PMIC-Mizque study to a 50-yearmight be, and how it might be minimized. future time horizon and to put it into an optimiz- ing framework.51 This framework permits the model to choose the optimal investment program48 Benefits are maximized at a 0% discount rate and 6% discount rate.49 Present supply levels were reported by the PRONAR study. In 50 For several crops in the water balance table, net revenue was order to determine CC scenarios and changes in water avail- not available. For these (minor) crops, net revenue was estimated ability, present and future annual runoff values for the Mizque based on closely related crops for which information was avail- basin were determined using CLIRUN-2 software. Data from able, following consultation with Bolivian agricultural experts. 17 GCMs were analyzed and dry and wet scenarios were chosen as a function of the highest decrease and increase in runoff 51 The study’s time horizon was 90 years. This was considered respectively. Those turned out to be the GFDL 2.1 model as the necessary to adequately consider investments that would be made wet scenario with an expected increase in annual runoff of 16 over the next 50 years. This is the case because projects were percent; and the CCCMA model for the dry scenario with a 24 considered to have a 20-year life with the option to reform them percent decrease in annual runoff for 2050. These two percent- at half the cost for an additional 20 years. Thus any project built ages were applied to the present supply reported by sub-basin in in 2050, for example, would be considering possible benefits up order to obtain future annual runoff. to 2090.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 67 Figure 18 Distribution ofover the 50 years under (1) varying budgets, (2) calculated Internal Rates oftwo different decentralization policies, and (3) dif- Return (IRR) on 74 irrigationferent objectives to be maximized—overall social PRONAR projectsbenefits and number of participating families. 65 GT = Rate of ReturnThrough the application of the model, the study 47evaluates the effect of climate change on the gov- 33ernment’s future investment program as identi- 27 21fied by the PMIC-Mizque study. This required 8assembling the PMIC-Mizque data to create 74 GT 0 GT 6% GT 12% GT 18% GT 24% GT 48%investment projects. Each investment project hasan initial investment cost, future operations and NUMBER OF PROJECTSmaintenance (assumed at 1 percent per year ofinitial investment) and net farmer revenue. Each sufficient water is not available the irrigation sys-project also requires a quantity of irrigation water tem may be operated below capacity. However,as determined by the cropping pattern in the sub- the economic decision to construct the irrigationbasin. New irrigation projects in each sub-basin project takes this under-use into account at themust compete for water with existing irrigation time of the investment decision.projects, potable water, and livestock. Availablewater is adjusted for climate change. UN projec- Simulations explore the effect of climate changetions are used as the basis for projected urban within the context of (1) the tradeoff betweenand rural population growth rates to 2050. Three the number of families directly benefited and theclimate scenarios are investigated; a baseline national social benefits, (2) different budget con-scenario that projects current climate and water straints ($2, $4, and $6 million per year), and (3)availability forward, and a wet and dry scenario. differing social discount rates (0 percent and 6Combing the project investment costs, cropping percent), and (4), a decentralized and a central-(net) revenue, and an assumed O&M cost of 1 ized budgetary policy. As illustrated in Figure 18,percent, the 74 potential irrigation projects yield at a 0 percent discount rate, 65 of the 74 proj-the distribution of internal rates of return (IRR) ects are economically viable. At a 6 percent dis-shown in Figure 18. count rate, the number of viable projects reduces to 47. The budget constraint serves to ration theAs shown in Figure 18, of the 74 projects, 65 have number of projects that can be built in any givena social rate of return52 greater than 0 percent year. Savings are permitted (at the discount rate)and 47 have a social rate of return greater than 6 to permit the accumulation of resources to affordpercent. Investment in an irrigation project may large projects. In all, the runs reported the budgetbe made in any year between 2010 and 205053. constraint permits implementing all the projectsProjects are assumed to have a 20 year life after over the 40 years. A tighter budget constraint sim-which they may (optionally) be refurbished at a ply slows the rate of implementation.cost of 40 percent of the initial investment. Invest-ing in a project creates the option to irrigate. If Identification of Climate-Resilient Investment Alternatives:52 “Social rate of return” means the return on all costs and benefits, Example of the Mizque Watershed to whomever they may accrue. and Irrigation Case Study53 To permit investment in the end of the period, which will only benefit following 2050, the model was optimized with a planning horizon to 2090. For the climate scenarios the transition from the These include an inventory of potential irri- current to the2090 climate was assumed linear based on the 2050 projection. gation projects along with their costs and
68 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSprinciple characteristics, as well as a water bal- ing from the projects by between 2 percent andance by sub-basin. In order to explore the effect 30 percent. This effect is least when the bud-of climate change on the economic and physi- get constraint is loose (there is more money tocal viability of this potential investment pro- invest) and where projects must pass a strictergram, the data were projected forward to 2090 cost-benefit test. It grows as the budget con-and combined with 2090 climate projections to straint tightens and the cost-benefit criteria aregenerate a mixed integer programming model. loosened. With a tight budget and loose criteriaThis model was then used to explore the effect for the quality of projects, decentralized budget-of climate under various climate, policy, and ary management permits poor projects in onebudget scenarios. sub-basin to be built, even though much better projects cannot be built due to lack of resourcesEffect of climate change. Relative to the in other sub-basins. This effect diminishes as thecurrent climate, the effect of the “dry” climate budget constraint is loosened, because both thescenario is to reduce potential social benefits of good and poor projects get built. It also dimin-the PMIC-Mizque irrigation program by 3–5 ishes with a more demanding cost-benefit test,percent. The effect of the “wet” scenario is to because poor projects get screened out of allincrease benefits by 1–3 percent. The effect on sub-basins. Imposing a cost-benefit test equiva-the number of families benefited is very similar. lent to a 6 percent rate of return (using a 6 per-These results vary somewhat at different levels of cent discount rate) keeps the social benefits ofthe budget constraint and between the two water- the decentralized policy within 5 percent of theshed management policies (decentralized and centralized policy. However, under a tight budgetcentralized). and a policy to maximize employment (instead of maximizing social benefits), decentralizedEffect of decentralized management. A management reduces the number of familiespolicy of decentralized investment was simulated receiving irrigation by nearly 20 percent.by imposing budget restrictions at each subwa-tershed rather than at the level of the Mizque There are two important qualifications to thewatershed as whole. These subwatershed bud- generality of these results. First, the decentral-gets were calculated to keep per capita invest- ized policy simulated was one where sub-basinsment equal across all subwatersheds. A policy population could only spend their budget on theto decentralize budgets to the sub-basin level PMIC-Mizque projects. Had a wider range ofreduces potential benefits significantly more than projects been available, including projects otherclimate change. This is true whether the objec- than irrigation, the results could have been verytive is to maximize national social benefits54 or different. Second, in the Mizque basin no inter-to maximize the number of families benefit- basin water conflict emerged under any of theing.55 The effect of decentralizing the budget to scenarios. Had upstream-downstream water con-the subwatershed level is to reduce social ben- flict emerged the need for basin-wide planningefits and/or number of families directly benefit- would have been greater. In the Mizque basin, conflict existed over financial resources only. Had54 Net social benefits are equal to the net present value over the conflict emerged over water also the difficulty 50-year horizon of the net farmer revenue from new crops in identifying tradeoffs between centralized and brought into production through irrigation, minus investment and maintenance costs of new irrigation structures. decentralized policies becomes much greater.55 The objective of maximizing the number of families benefiting Optimization models of the type illustrated in does not look at the economic cost and benefit of the projects. It this study can be extremely useful tools for explor- simply maximizes the number of families that can get irrigation at each budget constraint and decentralization regime. ing the relative benefits of alternative constrained
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 69 Table 24 The Effect of Climate Change on Social Benefits of the Pronar Investment Program in the Mizque Watershed (6% discount rate, NPV in $ millions) Budget constraint ($ million/yr) 6 4 2 6 4 2 Climate Scenarios Centralized budget and management Decentralized budget and management wet 15.7 15.6 15.3 14.6 14.0 12.6 baseline 15.5 15.4 15.1 14.4 13.8 12.4 dry 15.0 14.9 14.6 13.9 13.3 11.9decentralization policies; that is policies which jara) that are sensitive to climate uncertainty. Ofpermit decentralized decision-making, but within these, only one project is robust to all three cli-the context of rules established by basin-wide mate scenarios (at a discount rate of 6 percent),management principles. with three projects robust to two out of the three climate outcomes.Effect of climate uncertainty. Despite theMizque river watershed being in a macro water- Lastly, it is important to note that the originalshed considered vulnerable to climate change, intent was to use the Bolivia study to do a muchthis study found that most of the potential irri- more ambitious exercise—to use the same math-gation investment in the Mizque river water- ematical modeling to identify the economicallyshed is robust to climate outcomes. This is the optimal timing of different adaptation projects,case because major vulnerability problems are in different sectors, all competing for resourcesupstream and relate to urban water supply, san- from a constrained budget. As this more ambi-titation, and threats of floods and droughts. This tious exercise started, the team immediately wasanalysis suggests that farther downstream in the confronted with an immense requirement forMizque River watershed of the PMIC-Mizque data, including the costs of projects, and thisstudy, annual rainfall would remain sufficient for proved unfeasible. The challenge to use similarnearly all the irrigation projects identified in the approaches to determine the optimal timing ofPMIC-Mizque study, assuming sufficient storage adaptation projects remains.was built as part of the program.56 Seventy-fourpotential projects were identified by PMIC-Miz-que in sixteen of the twenty-two sub-basins of Model Analysisthe Mizque river watershed. Of these sixteensub-basins, only three experience water scar- The effect of climate on thecity prior to 2050—even under the “dry” sce- watershed investment programnario. Two of the water-constrained sub-basinscontain a total of three potential projects—all The effect of climate change on the social ben-of which are viable and robust under all three efits of the PMIC-Mizque watershed investmentclimate scenarios. This leaves eight projects in program are shown in Table 24 below.the third water-constrained sub-basin (Tipa- Table 24 shows the effect of optimizing the56 It was not possible to make this assessment as part of this study. social benefits of Mizque irrigation assuming a This issue should be investigated in subsequent work. The model framework of this study provides an ideal tool for this investigation.
70 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Figure 19 Tradeoff between Social 6 percent social discount rate.57 The effect of Benefits and Families Affected (estimated budget=$6 million) the dry climate scenario is to reduce the value of the investment program by 3 to 4 percent in 150 all the budget scenarios, while the effect of theNET SOCIAL BENEFIT (MILLION US$) 140 wet scenario is to increase the benefits by 1 per- 130 cent. The difference in the benefits due to climate 120 change is due to the difference in water availabil- 110 ity in the Tipajara sub-basin, as discussed in the section below entitled “How welfare is lost.” The 100 effect of a policy of decentralized management 90 and budgeting is considerably more important 80 than of climate change. With a $2 million budget 70 constraint, its effect is to reduce watershed ben- 60 efits by 7 percent. This loss in benefits grows as 500 550 600 650 700 750 the budget constraint is loosened. At a constraint FAMILIES AFFECTED (IN THOUSANDS) of $6 million annually, the differences between scenarios under a centralized and decentralized BASELINE, CENTRAL BUDGET = 6,000 policy reach approximately 18 percent. Similar DRY, CENTRAL BUDGET = 6,000 results obtain optimizing at a 0 percent discount, WET, CENTRAL BUDGET = 6,000 except the effect of decentralized management is BASELINE, REGIONAL BUDGET = 6,000 more pronounced. DRY, REGIONAL BUDGET = 6,000 WET, REGIONAL BUDGET = 6,000 The impact of budget, climate, and Figure 20 Tradeoff between Social decentralization policy. Benefits and Families Affected (budget=$4 million) Figures 19 trough 21 illustrates the relative importance of budget, climate, and decen-NET SOCIAL BENEFIT (MILLION US$) 150 tralization policy. For each scenario the curve 140 (traced by the symbols) represents the best pos- 130 sible combination of social benefits and families 120 served.58 Thus for example, the curve traced by 110 the green diamonds in Figure 18 represents the 100 best combination of social benefits and number 90 of families employed that can be achieved under 80 the wet climate scenario with a centralized bud- 70 getary policy and with a budget of US$ 6 million 60 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 57 The Net Present Value (NPV) of the investment program is equal to the sum of all the net benefits in each year over the FAMILIES AFFECTED (IN THOUSANDS) 50-year planning horizon discounted back to the present: 50 (Bt - Ct) NPV= ∑ t=1 (1+r)t BASELINE, CENTRAL BUDGET = 4,000 where Bt and Ct represent the benefits and costs of investing and DRY, CENTRAL BUDGET = 4,000 operating the irrigation systems in each year, t is the year (1–50), and r is the social discount rate applied. WET, CENTRAL BUDGET = 4,000 58 It is important to note that these graphs are shown in undis- BASELINE, REGIONAL BUDGET = 4,000 counted terms. That is, the Net Present Values shown are the DRY, REGIONAL BUDGET = 4,000 simple sum over the 50 years of the cost and benefits of all projects included in the solution. WET, REGIONAL BUDGET = 4,000
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 71per year. The upper leftmost triangle represents Figure 21 Tradeoff between Social Benefits and Families Affectedthe highest social benefits achievable under this (budget=$2 million)scenario, giving no weight to number of familiesreached. This is slightly under $140 million in 140 NET SOCIAL BENEFIT (MILLION US$)social benefits and approximately 62,000 fami- 130lies reached. The lower rightmost triangle on 120the other hand represents the combination of 110social benefits and families reached that wouldbe achieved giving no weight to social bene- 100fits—focusing exclusively on number of fami- 90lies reached. Thus as shown by the figure if one 80maximized only the number of families reachedand gave no weight to the social economic ben- 70efits, the number of families reached with new 60PMIC-Mizque irrigation projects would be 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700approximately 74,000 families at social benefits FAMILIES AFFECTED (IN THOUSANDS)of slightly over $90 million. Between the point BASELINE, CENTRAL BUDGET = 2,000that maximizes social benefits on the upper left DRY, CENTRAL BUDGET = 2,000and that which maximizes families reached on WET, CENTRAL BUDGET = 2,000the lower right lie the other points on the curve BASELINE, REGIONAL BUDGET = 2,000generating the “possibilities frontier” of the best DRY, REGIONAL BUDGET = 2,000combinations of families reached and social WET, REGIONAL BUDGET = 2,000benefits (in this wet climate, centralized budget-ary policy and $6 million budget scenario).Figures 19, 20 and 21 similarly trace the possi-bilities frontier for a dry, wet, and baseline sce- number of families receiving irrigation benefits,nario for both a centralized and a decentralized watershed-wide planning will always yield higherbudgetary policy—yielding a total of 6 scenarios benefits than decentralized budgeting, and thisin each figure. Figure 19 shows the “possibilities policy effect is more important in magnitude thanfrontiers” for a budget allocation of $ 6 million the effect of climate change.per year, while Figures 20 and 21 do the samefor budgets of $4 million and $ 2 million, respec- Second, this effect becomes more pronounced astively. Looking at the three figures two major resources become more limited. This can be seenpoints stand out. First, regardless of the climate by comparing figure 19 (based on a budget of $regime, centralized watershed management yields 6 million per year) with Figure 21 (illustrating ahigher national social benefits and a larger num- budget of $2 billion per year). With a $6 millionber of direct beneficiaries than does a decentral- annual budget, the difference in the maximumized regime. Note for example, that in each figure social benefits between the centralized and thethe possibilities frontiers for all three climate sce- decentralized regime (for a given climate regime)narios for the centralized regime are always above are typically around $10 million; for the $2 mil-and to the right (higher social benefits and more lion budget, the difference becomes $30 million.59families benefiting) of the possibilities frontiers forthe decentralized regime. In other words whether 59 This compares the vertical distance between the upper left mostone wants to maximize social benefits or the points on each climate scenario.
72 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Figure 22 Baseline Scenario Similarly for the number of families potentially (current climate in 2090) affected, the difference in beneficiaries between 150 the two policy regimes grows from some 100,000 families with a $6 million budget to some 150,000 NET SOCIAL BENEFIT (MILLION US$) 140 families with a $2 million budget.60 130 120 Figures 22 and 23 illustrate the relative impor- 110 tance of policy, budgetary resources, and climate 100 for the baseline and dry climate scenarios. For 90 both scenarios all centralized budget choices produce higher benefits than do the decentral- 80 ized budget choices. That is, even the $2 mil- 70 lion/yr budget administered through centralized 60 budget watershed management would produce 300 400 500 600 700 800 higher benefits than the $6 million/yr budget FAMILIES AFFECTED (IN THOUSANDS) administered at the sub-basin level. Comparing the two figures permits an idea of the effect of BASELINE, CENTRAL BUDGET = 6,000 the budget constraint. For example, to maintain BASELINE, CENTRAL BUDGET = 4,000 the $130 million social benefits achievable under BASELINE, CENTRAL BUDGET = 2,000 BASELINE, REGIONAL BUDGET = 6,000 the current climate (Figure 22) with a $2 mil- BASELINE, REGIONAL BUDGET = 4,000 lion/yr budget constraint would require US$ 4 BASELINE, REGIONAL BUDGET = 2,000 million/yr under the “dry” climate regime (Fig- ure 23). Figure 23 Future Climate in 2090 It should be noted, however that this does not under a Dry Scenario mean that the cost of maintaining US$4 mil- lion of social benefits under the “dry” sce-NET SOCIAL BENEFIT (MILLION US$) 140 nario would be twice the cost of that under the 130 baseline scenario. The budget constrains the 120 annual budget allocation (which can be saved 110 or spent), not the total that can be spent over 100 the 40-year investment time horizon. In fact, 90 the undiscounted total investment in construct- 80 ing and refurbishing irrigation projects was 70 essentially equal for the optimal program under 60 the two climate scenarios. The difference is 300 400 500 600 700 800 that to equate benefits under the two scenarios FAMILIES AFFECTED (IN THOUSANDS) requires the dry scenario to produce significant DRY, CENTRAL BUDGET = 6,000 additional irrigation at the beginning of the DRY, CENTRAL BUDGET = 4,000 period. This additional irrigation early in the DRY, CENTRAL BUDGET = 2,000 period compensates for lost irrigation at the end DRY, REGIONAL BUDGET = 6,000 of the period, thereby permitting benefits to be DRY, REGIONAL BUDGET = 4,000 DRY, REGIONAL BUDGET = 2,000 60 This compares the horizontal distance between the lower right- most points on each climate scenario.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 73 Figure 24 How Social Welfare is restored (centralized management, 0% discount) DRY: US$ 4 MILLION BASELINE: US$ 2 MILLION WET: US$ 2 MILLION PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION r19 IRRIGATION (000 HA) r19 IRRIGATION (000 HA) r19 IRRIGATION (000 HA) 16 20 20 15 15 15 14 10 10 13 5 5 12 0 0 1 5 9 13 17 2125 29 333741 1 4 7 10 1316 192225 283134 3740 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 3741 TOTAL PROGRAM BENEFITSSocial Benefits 130 130 133(number of projects)Families 568,566 552,475 569,466(number of people)Irrigated Area (has) 1,134,821 1,105,123 1,122,771
74 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Figure 25. Capacity Utilization begin to prevent both projects from operating at of Projects 56 and 62 under Dry Scenario full capacity, as shown in Figure 25. 120% Figure 25 shows the evolution of projects 56 and 100% 62 under the dry scenario. While current water 80% availability permits both projects to operation at 60% full capacity, shortages begin to emerge in year 40% 11 (2021) when at least one of the projects is 20% forced to reduce irrigated area. The “boom-bust” 0% capacity utilization produced by the model illus- 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 2123 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 trates dramatically the potential for serious water p56 p62 conflict. Good institutions could ensure a more equitable division of the remaining water—and a smooth transition to other employment. Note that in year 31 the projects built by the programequated between the baseline and dry scenar- have run out of water.ios. In order to make this additional irrigationearly, the budget constraint must be relaxed forthe “dry” scenario. How Welfare is Restored It is important to understand in detail howHow Welfare is Lost welfare is restored by increasing the budget for irrigation projects. As will be shown, the senseNote that all welfare loss under the dry climate in which “welfare is restored” is quite narrow.scenario (as captured in this study) is due to In Figures 26, the Mizque watershed level ben-reduced irrigation potential in the Tipajara sub- efits are restored through relaxing the budgetbasin. Figure 24 illustrates the path of irrigation constraint (from US$ 2 million to $4 million)development in the sub-basin (under the three for the dry scenario. A relaxed budget permitsclimate scenarios). more rapid irrigation development in sub- basins not experiencing water shortages. ByUnder the “baseline” and “wet” scenarios with implementing projects earlier project benefitsa US$ 2 million (annual) budget the authori- are available for more years, compensating (inties would construct immediately 3 projects, numerical terms) for the losses to accrue in theMontecillos (p58), Puca pila (p59), and Tipa Tipajara sub-basin from 2021 onwards. Com-Tipa (p62) (note projects p55-p62 are in sub- paring the implementation of projects acrossbasin 19) raising irrigated area from 13,000ha the three climate regimes (Figure 26) revealsto 16,000ha. Under the wet climate scenario that, in order to compensate, the projects in theadditional projects are built throughout the 50 dry watershed are implemented prior to theyear period as made possible by additional water projects in the baseline watershed.availability. Under the dry climate regime on theother hand, two projects are built-- Tipa Tipa For these benefits to actually translate into res-(p62) and Kurumayu (p56). toration of benefits for the inhabitants of the Tipajara sub-basin however, it would requireWhile these projects initially increase irrigated significant institutional innovations.area to 14,000 ha, starting in 2021 water shortages
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 75 Figure 26 Cash flow of Investment Programs having Equal Social Benefits (dry scenario, 0% discounts) BASELINE SCENARIO: US$ 2 MILLION DRY SCENARIO: US$ 4 MILLION BUDGET BUDGET CONSTRAINT: EXPENDITURES CONSTRAINT: EXPENDITURES (1000 USD) (1000 USD) REFURB BUILD MAINT BUDGETThe Effect of Discounting 24 and 27.61 Eliminating projects with an IRR less than 6 percent nearly halves both the numberThe analysis above was done in undiscounted of families served by additional irrigation and theterms. This means that future benefits and costs number of additional acres brought under irri-receive weights equal to current benefits and gation. Despite the reduced number of eligiblecosts. The most important effect of imposing projects, it now takes a more rapid cash flow (Fig-a discount rate greater than 0 discounting is to ure 28) in the beginning of the period to buildexclude all projects for which the IRR is below the projects necessary to compensate for lossesthe discount rate. This concept is especially as climate change reduces water availability—$6important for evaluating if resources would be million compared to $2 million in the 0 percentbetter spent on irrigation development in the discount case above.62 This (probably unrealisti-Mizque basin or spent elsewhere in Bolivian cally) requires that 37 projects be built in the firstsociety. For the purpose of this study, we have year and the remainder in the second year.assumed that this social opportunity cost of cap-ital is equal to 6 percent. The primary purpose of this analysis is to dem- onstrate the usefulness of an intertemporal opti-How does discounting change mization approach to investment analysis underthe above analysis? 61 As stated above, the logic of using this discount would be that atAs shown in Figure 18, requiring a 6 percent rate a rate of return below 6 percent the investment resources would generate more social benefits if invested outside of irrigation inof return on projects reduces the number of eligi- the Mizque watershed.ble projects to 47. This can be seen by comparing 62 As shown in Figure 27 with a 6 percent discount rate a $6 millionthe number of projects implemented in Figures budget in the dry scenario produces roughly the same social benefits as a $2 million budget in the baseline scenario (an NPV of 15.0 vs 15.1)
76 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Figure 27 Restoring welfare (centralized management, 6% discount) PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION, BASELINE: US$ 2 MILLION WET: PROJECT US$ 6 MILLION, 6% DISCOUNT PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION, IMPLEMENTATION, 6% DISCOUNT US$ 2 MILLION, 6% DISCOUNT TOTAL PROGRAM BENEFITSSocial Benefits 15.0 15.1 15.3(number of projects)Families 277,618 287,387 298,479(number of people)Irrigated Area (has) 644,324 659,195 674,777
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 77Figure 28 Cash Flow of Investment Programs having Equal Social Benefits. BASELINE SCENARIO: US$ 2 MILLION DRY SCENARIO: US$ 6 MILLION BUDGET BUDGET CONSTRAINT: EXPENDITURES CONSTRAINT: EXPENDITURES (1000 USD) (1000 USD) REFURB BUILD MAINT BUDGETclimate change. Clearly, further modification year, failing to take into account implementationwould be required before this model could actu- capacity. Further analysis should explore imple-ally be employed by the planning authorities. mentation as well as financial constraints.First, for many of the projects further analysiswould be necessary. The Mizque Hydrological Limitation inherent to economic analysisPlan study (Annex 3) documents the current of climate changestatus of project preparation for these projects. Other limitations, inherent to any economicMost are currently project ideas, with neither analysis of climate change, are highlighted byfinal project designs nor feasibility studies com- this case study. Most importantly is the notion ofpleted. In addition, as mentioned above, it is compensation. This study has taken the welfare innot clear whether additional storage would be the Mizque watershed over the period 2010–20 asrequired for these irrigation projects, or whether the unit of analysis. It has restored welfare lossesthere is sufficient storage included in their cur- caused by climate change by providing additionalrent design. Second, the treatment of climate financing to construct additional irrigation. Whilecould be improved. Due to time limitations, cli- this additional irrigation was constructed in themate change was incorporated in the model by Mizque watershed, it was constructed prior to thelinearly extrapolating the 2010–50 climate pro- water shortages emerging, and in areas other thanjection to 2090. More sophisticated treatment those suffering from water shortages. For this com-of the 2050–90 period would be warranted in pensation to actually reach the families directlyfurther work. Finally, additional investigation affected by water shortages, it requires that mech-of the budget constraint would be interesting. anisms be put in place to either move these fami-The budget constraints employed ($2, $4, and lies to the benefiting areas or to move the benefits$6 million annually) probably permit an unreal- to the affected families. What this study has beenistic number of projects to be built in any given able to do is to identify the vulnerable population
78 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS(those residing in the Tipajara sub-basin) and to development in Bolivia’s Mizque watershed. Sev-identify how, though building additional irriga- eral conclusions emerge. First, the effect of cli-tion projects, the Mizque watershed can maintain mate change on irrigation development appearsits potential productivity over the time horizon. to modify the original development plan, in par-What the study cannot do is identify the mecha- ticular for the Tipajara sub-basin. This invest-nisms though which the Mizque watershed com- ment should be considered due to a water deficitpensates the populations directly affected. estimated in 2021. Second, under the worst-case scenario (dry) the effect of climate change inIt is noteworthy, for example, that (in order to this sub-basin reduces the return on PRONAR’smaximize social benefits from irrigation) the model potential investment program by approximately 3invests in two projects in Tipajara sub-basin in percent. And third, this reduction is less than that2011 only to start to phase them out as shortages which would occur should investment decisionsemerge in 2021. Having identified that the popu- be decentralized to the sub-basin level rather thanlation in the Tipajara sub-basin is vulnerable to maintained at the overall watershed level.water shortages, a more farsighted policy might beto seek alternatives to irrigation for this population The study has identified the most vulnerable popu-rather than to make short-term gains from unsus- lation, and how to restore watershed-level benefitstainable (even if profitable) new projects. to their baseline (without climate change) levels through accelerated investment. While highlight-Conclusions for the Investment ing the problem of the vulnerable population, thisPlanning Tool study has not identified mechanisms to ensure that additional watershed benefits reach those suffer-Specifically, the study investigated the effect ing directly from water shortages. This problemon climate change on a program of irrigation is inherent to, and an important limitation of,
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 79economic studies that aggregate across space and possible climate outcomes. Optimization modelsover time. The higher the level of aggregation the of the type illustrated in this study can also bemore important the problem becomes. extremely useful tools for exploring the relative benefits of alternative constrained decentraliza-The study has illustrated the advantages and dis- tion policies; that is policies which permit decen-advantages of this type of planning model for cli- tralized decision-making, but within the contextmate change analysis. The major advantages are of rules established by basin-wide managementthat it permits a detailed comparison of invest- principles. The major disadvantage is that theyment alternatives and the potential effect of cli- require good project level data and a good char-mate change upon them—and does so within an acterization of the effect of climate change onintertemporally optimal (planning) framework. projects, which are not generally available. WeWhile not fully exploited in this study due to the doubt that there is any serious way to improve therelatively simple nature of the water constraint quality of long-term investment planning underthat emerged from the study (effectively restricted uncertainty without the quality of data that wereto a single sub-basin), the method also permits available for this study, however. This is an argu-exploring the robustness of alternative investment ment for many more preliminary investment stud-strategies to possible climate outcomes. For many ies of the type done by Pronar and Cedeagro inapplications this ability to explore robustness is the PMIC-Mizque study, which formed the basiscritical, especially in view of the uncertainty over for the current work.
80 NINE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 81Overall Conclusionsand Lessons LearnedSocial Dimensions of management measures to be of secondary signifi-Climate Change cance. Annex 5, an analysis of social dimensions, provides more detail on the adaptation measures prioritized by type and community. In addition,Rural and indigenous communities have a long results demonstrate that communities view adap-and rich history of systematic observation of the tation strategies not as isolated measures nor asclimate; indeed their survival depends on this single projects but rather as a complex set ofcapacity. Climate change and increasing climate complementary measures that are comprisedvariability mean that many of the climatic indi- of both hard and soft measures. Infrastructurecators used by these communities are becoming investments will be insufficient if complementaryless effective. However, community workshops efforts are not made to promote capacity build-revealed that due to an increasing inability to ing, institutional development, and in many cases,predict weather patterns, people are in need of fundamental transformation to underlying logicnew indicators to diagnose and predict future and livelihood strategies. In particular, adaptationvariability. Based on their climate observations strategies may imply major changes to productionover the past twenty to thirty years, all com- systems that will need appropriate technologicalmunity members that participated in the study and organizational adjustments as well. For thisbelieve that future climate scenarios will be char- reason, understanding these adaptation measuresacterized by higher temperatures; water scarcity; as a hierarchy with a specific order of executionmore irregular rainfall; and a shorter but more is essential as some strategies will depend on theintense rainy season. sustainable implementation of others.Communities in the valleys and highlands put the The following lessons for crafting adaptation poli-highest priority on adaptation measures related to cies can be extracted from the results of commu-water management, followed by improved agricul- nity-level investigation:tural and livestock practices. They view droughtas the principle threat to their livelihoods. In con- Past coping strategies and adaptationtrast, communities from the Chaco and plains practices to climate variability andregions asserted that improved agricultural prac- extreme events hold valuable lessons fortices were most important and considered water future adaptation planning and should form
82 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSthe basis for adaptation policy formulation. Com- level is complex and shaped by local powerbining traditional knowledge with new methods dynamics, which results in a fragile negotiationappears to be essential. Adaptation to climate process that can be easily destabilized by externalchange is not something new for indigenous com- interventions. Respecting existing commu-munities; they have developed livelihood systems nity practices, which guide the prioritiza-in line with a changing, dynamic environment. At tion of investments, may help facilitatethe same time, local authorities and communi- the development of adaptation policies.ties may lack the technical knowledge needed tobuild resilience to climate change. Greater infor-mation provision and capacity building initiatives Agricultureon the impacts of climate change and adaptationpolicies hold significant promise to increase the Although crop and climate models represent anadaptive capacity of local authorities, technical oversimplification of natural systems—and hence,experts, and community members alike. should be interpreted with caution—they are the most current tools used to help evaluate trendsPlanning across scales of governance, and potential effects due to a changing climate.aligning interests, and ensuring policy Under the specific assumptions of this study, thecohesion will be necessary to ensure effects of climate change—an increase in theeffective adaptation, particularly given variability of rainfall and in the occurrence ofBolivia’s unique system of decentraliza- drought periods—could have important implica-tion. Identification and prioritization of adapta- tions in the productive systems of quinoa, maize,tion measures is a complex and delicate process soybean, and potatoes. These expected changesthat depends on various sources of information, can have important implications for the futureoftentimes based on a fragile negotiation process sustainability of agriculture in Bolivia.at the local level. Consequently, adaptation poli-cies should be defined in a participatory manner Investment in better water management willrespectful of the existing processes at the local enhance the resilience of Bolivian agriculturelevel that define investment priorities. It will be both to systematic changes in annual levels ofessential to effectively engage relevant commu- rainfall and to greater year-to-year volatility innity members, as well as local authorities, in the the rainfall patterns. Such investment would bedevelopment and adaptation planning process. desirable under most development strategies forFor example, planning across scales of gover- a stable climate, so that climate change is likelynance is necessary for the formulation of a clear to reinforce the benefits of such investments.and efficient normative framework to support Similar observations apply to other investmentscommunity efforts for regulating access to forests in rural infrastructure, particularly for rural roadsand pastureland—a key adaptation measure for that can improve market access in existing andbuilding resilience. Collaboration and coordina- new areas of cultivation. In both cases, the leveltion with local institutions, private organizations, and location of investment must take account ofand producer organizations will increase the changes in agricultural comparative advantageeffectiveness of adaptation policies. within the country, so investments are allocated to meet future patterns of production rather thanMunicipal investments are identified and priori- being based on historical patterns.tized in community and municipal workshops inwhich civil society directly makes decisions. Prior- Analysis of the potential effect of climate changeitization of public investments at the community on crop yields revealed mixed results. Under a dry
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 83scenario, crop yields are expected to decline if the needs to be evaluated in relation to its produc-additional crop water requirements resulting from tive environment. In the past, farmers with liveli-temperature increases are not covered. Study hoods based on rainfed agriculture have adaptedresults suggest that low-altitude crops (mainly autonomously in a variety of ways includingmaize and soybean) will face yield declines of up building micro-scale irrigation and defenseto 40 percent, mostly due to water shortages and infrastructure to cope with floods; changing tohot spells during critical crop stages. Under a wet new crop varieties; converting land used for live-scenario with increased temperatures, the impact stock farming to land for cultivation; resortingand vulnerability analysis of climate change in to temporary labor migration; and engagingthe four crops suggests that crop productivity can in the services sector. Subsistence farmers withbe significantly increased; however, this result low adaptive capacity have fewer possibilities todoes not take into account the possibility of events adapt due to lack of resources.such as an increased incidence of plagues, longperiods of dry spells, and flooding of soils. Decision-makers need to devise adaptation strat- egies that include medium and long-term mea-The projected increase in temperature can also sures even if they require larger investments upbe an opportunity to improve crop productivity if front. The introduction of new crop varieties andwater is available in the critical phenological peri- improved management of the existing variet-ods of the crops. Improved irrigation can provide ies is important to increase the resilience of thethe appropriate amount of water needed in periods agriculture sector to climate change. The sustain-of increased crop water deficits and can be con- ability of this strategy will depend on the suc-sidered a suitable adaptation strategy to changes cessful implementation of a national agriculturalin climate conditions. This suggests that Bolivia’s research and extension service, and improvingagriculture sector would significantly benefit from a farmers’ access to markets for agricultural inputs,warmer and wetter climate. Under such a scenario, agricultural outputs, credit, and crop insurance,yields for maize and soybeans would increase 40 to etc. There is also a need to improve entrepreneur-45 percent, and potatoes and quinoa yields would ial skills to generate off farm income (alternativeincrease 60 to 90 percent. The expected crop yield livelihoods) and to improve access to loans andlosses from a drier climate are lower than the gains microcredit. Focus group discussions and commu-from a wetter and hotter climate. Potential losses nity workshops reveal that community membersfrom a drier climate are projected to be approxi- believe that adaptation is not only about investingmately 25 percent for maize and 10 to 15 percent in infrastructure; in addition, adaptation requiresfor soybeans, potatoes, and quinoa. These results capacity building, organizational developmentare driven by the agricultural benefits of a warmer, and uses of technology. Support for substantialmore frost-free climate. They suggest that rapid changes to livelihood systems and practices—and timely implementation of irrigation (at least at such as shifting from rainfed to irrigated systemsthe initial phases of crop development) would be and from free-range livestock to controlled live-even more attractive under a scenario of climate stock farming—will be crucial.change. These actions, along with crop insuranceschemes, are starting to be considered within the Accordingly, agricultural extension services andnew National Development Plan (2010–15). measures to increase access to markets require significant investments, yet they can offer lon-The diversity of ecosystems and socio-eco- ger term, socially and environmentally sustain-nomic characteristics of agricultural producers able benefits. The implementation of adaptationin Bolivia implies that any adaptation measure options such as agriculture insurance or actions
84 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSto increase market access will differ depending on some of the major adaptation challenges. With-the structure and size of the farming systems. The out fundamental improvements in the policies andapproach to implement these in areas such as the institutions that finance, maintain, and invest in theAltiplano, where small-scale family producers are water and agriculture sectors, additional resourcesthe majority, will be different from appropriate aimed at building resilience are not likely to beapproaches for areas such as Santa Cruz where effective in the long run.most of the production is done by large scalefarmers. The agricultural models for the different Rural Water Resourcescrops all suggest that availability of water is crucialto increase the resilience to climate change in the It is imperative to find equilibrium between devel-sector. Increased evaporation (due to higher tem- oping faster than business as usual and integratingperature), more irregular precipitation (shorter robust adaptation measures that minimize uncer-and intensified rainy season as well as hot spells), tainty within a reasonable timeframe. In order toand higher frequency of extreme weather events reduce dependency on the water cycle and there-(droughts and flooding) emphasize the need for fore on variability in natural water supply, it willinvestment in water storage and irrigation, which be necessary to develop a solid integrated waterwould be climate robust scenarios in both a dry management strategy that functions across scales,and wet climate scenario by reducing the climate and in particular, at the watershed level. For bet-vulnerability of rainfed agriculture. ter and more effective water resources planning, the principles of integrated water resources man- agement, acknowledged in the National Water-Water Resources shed Plan, should be transformed into practical and effective measures. This is important not onlyWater is considered one of the most vulnerable from an adaptation to climate change perspec-sectors that will require additional investments (to tive, but also to protect water resources and guar-mitigate floods and droughts) through hard (dam antee present and future needs for all water uses,and irrigation infrastructure) and soft measures including for environmental services. However,(capacity building and education, extension ser- needed basin-wide management, departing fromvices). Investments in water resources should be the current situation of small-scale communitytailored to improve planning and management investments, will require significant institutionalat the watershed level, as there is a great need for strengthening. Many of the adaptation invest-improvement in water storage capacity to utilize ments require multi-communal agreements; andexcess water in wet months and years. Improved thus, the state should create the appropriate spacewater access and irrigation increases resiliency to to generate such agreements.droughts in the planting season, is robust across cli-mate scenarios, and more than doubles the average Strategies for better water management shouldyield of the major crops in the region. Cost-benefit rely on four strategic components, including (1)analysis of irrigation projects in the region sug- an adequate institutional and legal framework togests that most types of irrigation are economically ensure a correct and coordinated engagement ofviable investment opportunities in both “with and the different actors in the water sector, includingwithout” climate change scenarios. Clearly, adapta- frameworks that ensure alignment with the needstion in Bolivia must go hand in hand with develop- and interests of local populations and make spacement. Even though the focus is mainly economic, for engagement of the most vulnerable memberspolitical and institutional issues play a central role of society; (2) a good flow of technical informationin understanding and in identifying solutions to on the water cycle and water demands by basin;
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 85 Figure 29 Strategic components for water management COMPLEMENTARY STRATEGIC PRINCIPLES FOR ADAPTATION IN THE WATER SECTOR ROBUST INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK IN THE WATER SECTOR RESILIENT WATERSHED TO CHANGES RICH AND TRANSPARENT FLOW OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION IN THE WATER CYCLE MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL CAPACITY APPLIED AND AT THE WATERSHED EXTREME EVENTS TECHNOLOGY AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE(3) a solid financial, managerial, and technical ■■ Prioritization of water uses in the basincapacity to ensure water resources management isimplemented under sustainability criteria; and (4) ■■ Elaboration of necessary regulations based onprovision of and access to the necessary physical Integrated Water Resource Management prin-infrastructure and technology (see Figure 29). ciples and the specifications of the basin, such as the determination of environmental flowsWith these strategic principles in place, long-term and vulnerable locations based on informationtrends of reduced water availability could be on hydrologic informationaddressed. This would also facilitate developmentof a disaster prevention strategy to improve con- ■■ Determination of the different actors involvedtrol over water systems and increase their resil- in the water sector in that basin and definitionience. In addition, an effective strategy should of the rules under which they should interactreduce dependence on natural water variability for decision making and investment planningand provide increased resilience of water systems. purposes.Specific measures should include: ■■ Prioritization of measures to protect water■■ Definition of basin boundaries and basic infor- resources and guarantee water uses Elabora- mation about the basin tion of an investment plan for the basin.■■ Specification of water uses in the basin and ■■ Elaboration of an investment plan for the establishment of cost recovery measures from Basin. the different water sub-sectors to protect water resources
86 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSImproving irrigation infrastructure Urban water resourcesIrrigation can ensure an adequate supply The urban sector is already highly exposed toof water for agriculture and compensate for climate variability, due the different vulnerabilityincreased crop water requirements. The irriga- dimensions (resource, infrastructure, and opera-tion potential of the country implies that this can tive management capacity) it presents. Climatebe considered as a suitable adaptation strategy change impacts—including reductions in waterto changes in climate conditions. Building infra- availability and the increased frequency andstructure to store water and regulate seasonal intensity of floods and droughts—would gener-water flows will need to be part of a future irri- ate additional stress on the current capacity ofgation strategy to increase the climate resilience utilities to safely deliver water and sanitationof the agriculture sector in Bolivia. Irrigation services and to control floods. Urban areas insystems based on reservoirs have been identified the arid zones have more difficulty in increasingas a cost-efficient adaptation measure. These production capacity due to natural water avail-systems equilibrate seasonal water supply and ability constraints, particularly when these areashave a high return per implemented unit. Reser- are located in basin heads. Peri-urban areas ofvoirs currently constitute 2 percent of irrigation Cochabamba and La Paz/El Alto are particularprojects, yet they represent 19 percent of total hotspots due to the high competition for water,irrigated water supply. However, rehabilitation poor infrastructure, and exposure to climateof existing reservoirs and building of new ones change effects. Groups living in the peri-urbanwill come at an additional cost to the sector. areas of rapidly growing cities are especially vul- nerable to the effects of climate change, becauseMainstreaming climate change considerations they are often not connected to the water and san-in hydraulic infrastructure projects will imply itation networks; they rely on unstable resources;ensuring the flexibility of operation in the sys- and they live in risky areas such as steep slopes ortem, revisiting the designed volume capacity and flood-prone areas. While a more detailed analysisstructure lifetime, and increasing the resilience of these trends is needed, in a country that is rap-to extreme events of higher magnitude. Irriga- idly urbanizing, city planners should anticipatetion strategies that promote a more efficient use future urban growth rates in order to be able toof water constitute a win-win option. Optimiz- provide for safe settlements.ing water use in irrigation relies on measuressuch as improving water distribution systems Most of the adaptation measures described in theand increasing irrigation efficiency. For example, study are “supply-driven.” In order to increaseit has been found that increasing the efficiency resilience to changes in climate, urban utilitiesof gravity irrigation systems by almost 50 per- need to reinforce and diversify their water sources,cent is a relatively simple measure to implement. increase coverage, properly manage effluents, andThe sustainability of any irrigation strategy, guarantee adequate storage capacity in anticipa-measure, or project can be reinforced by using tion of changes in rainfall variability and increas-an integrated river basin planning and manage- ing evapotranspiration rates (especially underment approach. In addition to this, complemen- dry scenarios). These measures imply that watertary investments in the agriculture sector—such utilities in Bolivia need to improve their opera-as extension services or education—will also tions, management and financial performance,contribute to the sustainability of irrigation for which they would certainly need additionalinvestments. external support. In the case of floods, tradeoffs and complementarities between hard and soft
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 87measures need to be carefully evaluated. Hard Results from the investment planning tool showedmeasures include reviewing and upgrading cur- that sequencing and prioritization of irrigationrent drainage systems; canalizing river channels projects depends mostly on decentralized man-when crossing urban soil; construction of dykes, agement rather than on climate change impactsriver deviations, and gates; or even larger mea- (regardless whether the objective is to maxi-sures such as as building upstream dams for flood mize national social benefits or to maximize thecontrol. Soft adaptation measures consist of number of families directly benefitting from theearly warning systems, upstream reforestation, projects) in the evaluation of water developmentor ensuring clean river beds and safe wards. The projects at a watershed level. The effect is leastmost effective adaptation strategy will combine where the budget constraint is loose and whereboth hard and soft measures. projects must pass stricter cost-benefit tests.The National Watershed Plan may provide guid- The study has illustrated the advantages and dis-ance on implementing IWRM at the watershed advantages of this type of planning model for cli-level, so utility planners could incorporate in their mate change analysis. The major advantages aremaster development plans a broader watershed that it permits a detailed comparison of invest-management that considers the city as very impor- ment alternatives and the potential effect of cli-tant. In this context, the generation of valuable mate change upon them—and does so within anand long-term hydrometeorological information inter-temporally optimal (planning) framework.at the watershed level would allow urban planners While not fully exploited in this study due to theto incorporate risk management measures in their relatively simple nature of the water constraintland planning instruments. This would enable them (effectively restricted to a single sub-basin), theto identify risky areas and to develop and imple- method also permits exploring the robustness ofment the consequent urban regulations increasing alternative investment strategies to possible cli-the long-term resilience to extreme events. mate outcomes. For many applications, this abil- ity to explore robustness is critical, especially in view of the uncertainty over possible climate out-Investment Planning Tool comes. The major disadvantage is that it requires good project-level data and a good characteriza-The investment model tool identified the most tion of the effect of climate change on projects.vulnerable population, and how to restore Currently, most of the needed data for this typewatershed-level benefits to their baseline levels of analysis is limited and/or expensive to gen-through accelerated investment, but ensuring erate and synthesize. Unfortunately, there is nothat additional watershed benefits reach those serious way to improve the quality of investmentsuffering directly from water shortages is more planning under uncertainty without this detaileddifficult. This type of planning model permits a project and climate-level analysis. Additional lim-detailed comparison of investment alternatives itations are described in Box 4.and the potential effect of climate change uponthem—and it does so within a planning frame-work that is consistent over time. The approach How to Move Forward?also facilitates investigation of the robustness ofalternative investment strategies to possible cli- The Bolivian government has made an importantmate outcomes, something that is particularly and serious start in understanding and respond-important in view of the uncertainty over pos- ing to climate change effects. However, Bolivia,sible climate outcomes. like most other countries in the world, still needs
88 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Box 4 Limitations of the Study A key limitation in the context of the EACC is that all models used channel researchers to ask and answer questions that can be answered by the models. Yet the most important questions may be institutional or cultural, or more likely a combination of these plus political factors. For example: How to influence the location of people away from high-risk or increasingly unproductive areas? How to improve the allocation of water and land? How to improve the quality of education? The tools used in this analysis help to define the importance of doing these things, but they cannot tell us how to get them done. For that, however, economics is clearly not sufficient, but the study by definition was not set to understand all aspects of adaptation to climate change. To make calculations tractable, the study limits both the breadth of economic analysis and the length of the time horizon. It investigates public sector adaptation only, and the investment horizon of the study is to 2050 only. Although climate science tells us that adaptation costs and damages will increase over time, and that major effects such as melting of ice sheets are more likely to occur well beyond this horizon, uncertainty with regard to both climate and growth make unproductive efforts to analyze adaptation beyond this period. Most of the results of this study are based on biophysical, engineering, and economic models. As discussed above, these models use mathematical techniques to represent physical and economic processes. The more the real world phenomena being simulated are generated by deterministic physical processes, the better the performance of the models. As phenomena become increasingly influenced by uncertainty (with unknown underlying probability distributions), or by human behavior and institutional change, the ability to simulate weakens. In addition to the sectoral and temporal efficiency problem, the overall approach of the models excluded other critically important elements: ecosystem services (forest and biodiversity), health, and further integration of the social and economic analyses. With regard to biodiversity, in particu- lar, it is still not clear how to quantify the impact of climate change and what adaptation measures are effective for preserving it, but the information needed to estimate adaptation costs is largely unavailable. The study is also limited by the lack of information in important sectors relevant for the develop- ment of the country. A specific example is the analysis of the infrastructure sector. Data from the global EACC study is presented below aggregated at the country level as a reference in terms of adaptation costs. The validation of data at the local level remains to be done.
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 89to develop and implement effective and comple- in addition to water storage and management.mentary policies, institutions and practices to Improved water management should also focusadapt to the reality of severe climate risks. Accord- on urban areas where increased demand is gen-ing to a recent report by Oxfam, an overarching erating water shortage problems. Given the highinstitutional and public policy framework for rate of water loss through poor infrastructure,national policy on climate change adaptation and which in cities like El Alto leads to loss rates ofmitigation needs to be developed through a twin up to 40 per cent, the government should placestrategy: “First, by integrating climate change a high priority on building new infrastructure formeasures into the new legislative framework that water storage. At the community level, existingwill implement Bolivia’s new Constitution and rainfall must be captured, stored, and used to itsthereby embed climate change policy at the high- maximum capacity.est level. Second, the government should furtherdevelop and implement a national adaptation The EACC study could be used to fulfill somestrategy that is properly mainstreamed across the of the knowledge gaps required for the advance-government’s programs for eradicating poverty, ment of the adaptation agenda in the coun-and adopted by and coordinated across all the try. Additional ongoing initiatives by the Wordkey ministries. Such plans should also identify the Bank will also complement the initial informa-most urgent adaptation activities and the cost of tion provided by the EACC study. An examplethese, and secure international financing for their of such initiatives is the detailed modeling ofimplementation.” (Oxfam, 2009) surface water availability using a hydrologi- cal (SWAT) model that is being developed byDealing with current climate risk should be a the World Bank-Latin America and Caribbeanpriority in order to increase future resilience. Region. The SWAT tool will be able to improveIn particular, disaster risk reduction needs to be climatic data for the baseline at the watershedpart of long-term planning at all levels of gov- level, and therefore to improve the accuracy ofernment, across all industries, and particularly the vulnerability indicators (mainly for the waterat the departmental and municipal level. This sector). The improvement in the resolution ofalso includes improvement of capacity in regard climate projections, however, still needs furtherto disaster preparedness. Given the increased work from the climatology cluster. Both studies,climatic risk and severe vulnerability of small as well as others previously mentioned in theagricultural producers, the development of an report, will provide support to the initial phasesagricultural insurance scheme should be a priority of the PPCR.
90 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTSWorks CitedANESAPA. 2009. Strategic plans of 12 EPSAS. Bolivia I Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC).2007. Fourth Assessment ReportAsquith, N.M. & M.T. Vargas. 2007. Fair Deals for Watershed Services in Bolivia. Natural Resource Issues.International Killeen,T. J. et al. 2007. “Thirty Years of Land-cover Change in Institute for Environmental and Development. London, UK. Bolivia.” Ambio 36 ( 7): 600-606.Roche M.A, and Fernandez C. 1986. Los balances hídricos de Marengo, J.A., et al.2009.”Future change of temperature and Bolivia. Premier Symposium de la Recherche Française en precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the Bolivie, LaPaz, Septembre 1986 : 44-47. PRECIS regional climate modeling system”. International Journal of Climatology.Beltrán, I., and J.L. Gutiérre. 2008. “ Impact of ENSO phenom- ena” PHICAB. “Balance Hídrico Superficial de Bolivia” Mechler R. et al. 2009, A Risk Management Approach for (1990). Assessing Adaptation to Changing Flood and Drought Risks in Europe, Chapter 8, In: M. Hulme, H. Neufeldt (eds.).Centro de Desarrollo Agropecuario (CEDEAGRO) 2005. Plani- Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspec- ficación hídrica de la Cuenca del Mizque. GTZ. PRONAR. tives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. CambridgeCEPAL 2008 Evaluación de los eventos ENSO 2007 and 2008 University en la Region Andina. Ministry of Agriculture. (2005) “National Irrigation Plan”.Climate Change National Program (PNCC). 2006. “Evaluation Manual de Riego Tecnificado - PIEN - 2008 (P. Hoogendam of trends of climate change in Arid and Semi-Arid areas of – C. Ríos) Bolivia”. Ministry of Agriculture. National Irrigation Program. “Inven-Climate Change National Program (PNCC). 2006. “Climate tario Nacional de Sistemas de Riego” (2000) Change in Bolivia” . Ministry of Environment and Water. “National Watershed Plan.Climate Change National Program (PNCC). 2007. “Climate (Strategic and conceptual framework)” (2006). Change National Adaptation Mechanism” Climate Change National Institute of Statistics (INE). 2001. Population census National Program. 1998. “Vulnerability and Adaptation of 2001 and Population projections by department up to 2030 the Water Resources in Bolivia”. (2001).Climate Change National Program (PNCC). 2007 “Flood events National Institute of Statistics (INE) and Ministry of Economy in the Beni basin in 2007” Ministry of Environment and and Public Finance, Fiscal Analysis Framework (RAF). Water. Orellana, R. 1995. Aproximaciones a un marco teórico para laCorporación Andina de Fomento (CAF).2000. Lecciones del comprensión y el manejo de conflictos socio-ambientales. Nino en Bolivia en 1997-1998 (2000) CERES – FTPP. Cochabamba, Bolivia.Fundepco. Oxfam. 2008. “Threats, vulnerabilities and risks of Oxfam Fundepco. 2008. “Threaths, vulnerabilities and risks of Bolivia Atlas” Bolivia Atlas”Government of Bolivia.2010. National Development Program Oxfam. 2009. Bolivia: Climate Change, poverty and adaptation. 2010 -2015. Robertson, N. and S. Wunder. 2005. Fresh Tracks in the ForestInstitute of Hydrology and Hydraulics. 2005. “Hydrologic Bal- Assessing Incipient Payments for Environmental Services Initiatives in ance of the Pilcomayo Basin”. Bolivia. Bogor, Indonesia: CIFOR.Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. “Climate Change and Water Technical Report”
P LU R I N AT I O N A L STAT E O F B O L I V I A CO U N T RY ST U DY 91San Andres University, Institut de Recherche pour le Devel- oppement. “Deshielo de la Cuenca del Tuni Condoriri y du impacto sobre los recursos hídricos de las ciudades de la Paz y El Alto” (2007).UNESCO. “Water in Bolivia” (2008).UNISDR. “National Report on Institutional Vulnerability in Disaster Risk Management” (2004).Vice-ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. “Diag- nostico y priorización de Cuencas Hidrográficas en Bolivia” (1997).World Bank. “Water and Climate Change: Understanding the Risks and Making Climate-Smart Investment Decisions” (2009).World Bank 2009a. The Cost to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methods and Estimates. Consultation draft. Washington, DC: The World Bank.World Bank.2010. World Development Report: Development and Climate Change. Washington, DC: World Bank.World Food Program, SINSAT, UDAPE. 2003 “Municipal Atlas of Food Security”World Food Program, SINSAT, UDAPE. 2007 “Municipal Atlas of Food Security”Water and Sanitation Program. 2009“Peri-urban strategy for water and sanitation” (Working Paper) (2009)
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94 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: VULNERABILIT Y ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS Ministry of Foreign Affairs Government of the NetherlandsThe World Bank Group1818 H Street, NWWashington, D.C. 20433 USATel: 202 473 1000Fax: 202 477 6391www.worldbank.org/eacc