Spill Analysis

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There a new method to evaluate the Aircraft, by quantitative method, it simply to use normal distribution to reflect the spill effects of p, the aircraft that has minimum spill will be the right one to select.

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Spill Analysis

  1. 1. “ SPILL ANALYSIS ” By : Eng. Mohammed Salem Awad Consultant LOAD FACTOR ANALYSIS
  2. 2. CONTENTS <ul><li>INTRODUCTION </li></ul><ul><li>LOAD FACTOR </li></ul><ul><li>LOAD FACTOR ANALYSIS </li></ul><ul><li>MATHEMATICAL DEMAND DISTRIBUTION </li></ul><ul><li>YEMENIA CASE STUDY </li></ul><ul><li>RESULT </li></ul>
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION <ul><li>Application Of a Statistical Distributions in Aviation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Initial Spare Provision …. Poisson Distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Condition Monitoring ….. Weibull Distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Materials Forecasting ….. Gamma Distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Spillage Analysis ….. Normal Distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Warranty Analysis ….. Exponential Distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Engine Stock Control ….. Poisson Distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Time Between Overhaul … Exponential Distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Check Escalation …... Weibull Distribution </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. MATHEMATICAL DEMAND DISTRIBUTION <ul><li>MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION: </li></ul><ul><li>The expression for calculating the mean of a truncated normal distribution ( the case when spill occurs ) can be written in terms of load factors ( L ) and demand factor ( D ) as follows </li></ul>
  5. 5. CASE STUDY Yemenia <ul><li>OBJECTIVE: </li></ul><ul><li>The objective of the Load Factor Analysis is to select the capacity for the assign sector or route (here SAH-CAI). In other words what is the best Aircraft (A310-300, 727-200, 737-200, and 737-800.) to operate SAH-CAI . </li></ul>
  6. 6. CASE STUDY <ul><li>STEPS OF LOAD FACTOR ANALYSIS: </li></ul><ul><li>The Steps are: </li></ul><ul><li>1- Start with the right set of Data. </li></ul><ul><li>2- Derive the Demand Distribution. </li></ul><ul><li>3- Estimate spill for alternative Capacities. </li></ul>
  7. 7. CASE STUDY <ul><li>Step 1. : Start with the right set of Data </li></ul><ul><li>The data collected is for sector SAH-CAI and for period of one Year. I.e. ( Oct.2001 to Oct. 2002) as shown below : </li></ul>
  8. 8. CASE STUDY <ul><li>Step 2 : Derive The Demand Distribution </li></ul><ul><li>The Data can be represent by two graphs : </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>The First Graph : </li></ul><ul><li> Passenger vs Cumulative Frequency </li></ul><ul><li> This graph is help to calculate the Mean and the Standard Deviation </li></ul><ul><li>The Second Graph : </li></ul><ul><li> Group Passengers vs Frequency </li></ul><ul><li>  So from the Data we can calculate the Mean and Standard Deviation i.e </li></ul><ul><li>  Mean Value : 85 Passengers </li></ul><ul><li>Standard Deviation : 34.5 Passengers </li></ul><ul><li>K factor 40.55 </li></ul>
  9. 9. CASE STUDY <ul><li>The First Graph : Passenger vs Cumulative Frequency </li></ul>
  10. 10. CASE STUDY <ul><li>The Second Graph : Group Passengers vs Frequency </li></ul>
  11. 11. CASE STUDY <ul><li>Step 3. :  Estimate Spill for Alternative Capacities </li></ul><ul><li>Based on the of Demand distribution parameters </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Mean Value : 85 Passengers </li></ul><ul><li>Standard Deviation : 34.5 Passengers </li></ul><ul><li>K factor 40.55 </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul>50 84 16
  12. 12. CASE STUDY <ul><li>Step 3. :  Estimate Spill for Alternative Capacities </li></ul><ul><li>We can start the analysis </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>The following expression is used for calculating the mean of a truncated normal distribution ( the case when spill occurs) can be written in terms of Load Factor ( L ) and Demand Factor ( D ) as follows: </li></ul><ul><li>Where </li></ul><ul><li>And Spill is calculated by C ( D – L ), where C is Aircraft Capacity. </li></ul>50 84 16
  13. 13. CASE STUDY <ul><li>Yemenia Case : </li></ul><ul><li>By using different capacities start from From 50 seat to 230 seat, and normal distribution Formula , a spread sheet calculation shown below.  Estimate Spill for Alternative Capacities </li></ul>
  14. 14. CASE STUDY <ul><li>Yemenia Case : </li></ul>
  15. 15. CASE STUDY - RESULT <ul><li>Result : </li></ul><ul><li>A three Curves are plotted ( Load Factor, Demand Factor, and Spill Passengers against Capacity ) </li></ul><ul><li>Which shows the following outcomes. </li></ul><ul><li>The best capacity for sector </li></ul><ul><li>SAH – CAI is 150 Seat, </li></ul><ul><li>This will tends to a </li></ul><ul><li>Load Factor = 56 % </li></ul><ul><li>Demand Factor = 0.56 </li></ul><ul><li>Spill passenger per </li></ul><ul><li>Flight = 0.39 = zero : </li></ul>
  16. 16. Contact Further Information: Mohammed Salem Awad : Tel: 00967 734777518 Email: smartdecision2002@yahoo.com www.freewebs.com/wingsofwisdom/ www.freewebs.com/art-of-knowledge/ www.standout-from-the-crowds.webs.com
  17. 17. LOAD FACTOR ANALYSIS <ul><li>THE END </li></ul>

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