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Scenario Planning - WiLSWorld 2014
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Scenario Planning - WiLSWorld 2014

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Libraries sit at the convergence of change in technology, consumer behavior, learning and content. Change is not a bad thing, but it is something that needs to be navigated rather than ignored. We are …

Libraries sit at the convergence of change in technology, consumer behavior, learning and content. Change is not a bad thing, but it is something that needs to be navigated rather than ignored. We are going to talk about how to challenge your assumptions, put a name on uncertainties and use stories about the future to reimagine the stale, innovate based on new capabilities, protect the precious and let go of what just can’t be saved. Although external forces greatly influence the current and future context, we co-create the local environment through the choices we make. At the end of today’s presentation you will have better ammunition and better tools for making future-facing decisions.

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  • 1. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Listening to the Future: Exploring the Future of Libraries Daniel W. Rasmus Managing Director & Principal Analyst Serious Insights ! @DanielWRasmus Daniel W. Rasmus Strategist
  • 2. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Introductions danielwrasmus.com #WILSFUTURES
  • 3. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Western Digital Hughes @DanielWRasmus Education economist.com newscientist.com conferences Read, listen, read NPR.org FT.com Community ContinuousLearning Poetic Moments Questions from Customers & Students Career How I do my work Wired.com Uncertainties Scenarios Daniel W. Rasmus Strategist Daniel W. Rasmus seriousinsights;net Share N E T W O R K
  • 4. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 5. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 6. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 7. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 8. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 9. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 10. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 11. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus How will libraries work in 2024?
  • 12. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus What Just Happened? The Variables Collapsed into a Set of Values OneStory
  • 13. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 14. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus The phonograph is of no commercial value ! Thomas Edison “By 2000, machines will be producing so much that everyone in the U.S. will, in effect, be independently wealthy. With government benefits, even non-working families will have an annual income of $30-40,000”!Time Magazine, 1966 There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home! Ken Olsen, President Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 No woman in my time will be Prime Minister or Chancellor or Foreign Secretary—not the top jobs. Anyway I wouldn't want to be Prime Minister. You have to give yourself 100%. Margaret Thatcher in Sunday Telegraph (London, Oct. 26, 1969 on her appointment as Shadow Education Spokesman.)
  • 15. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus NEW YORK, Thursday , October 19, 1967 By the year 2000, people will work no more than four days a week and less than eight hours a day. With legal holidays and long vacations, this could result in an annual working period of 147 days worked and 218 days off.
  • 16. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus As I've said many times, the future is already here. It's just not very evenly distributed. William Gibson during an NPR interview (30 November 1999 Timecode 11:55)
  • 17. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus More generally, the attention of theright expert at the right time is often thesingle most valuable resource one canhave in creative problem solving. Expertattention is to creative problem solvingwhat water is to life in the desert: it’sthe fundamental scarce resource.!Nielsen, Michael (2011-10-23). Reinventing Discovery: The New Era of Networked Science (Kindle Locations 392-394). Princeton UniversityPress. Kindle Edition.
  • 18. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Marshal McLuhan “We become what we behold. We shape our tools and then our tools shape us.”
  • 19. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Understanding Uncertainty
  • 20. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Just What is Uncertainty?
  • 21. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus How Will We Access Information?
  • 22. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus How Will We Represent Books?
  • 23. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Library Location Decentralized & Local Centralized & Virtual
  • 24. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Licensing Approach Centralized & Unified Fragmented & Independent
  • 25. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Organizational Dissonance
  • 26. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus How Much Stuff Can One Person Carry? http://www.heritage.org/~/media/Images/Reports/2012/08/HSGAC%20Testimony/Historical%20Cost%20of%20Computer%20Memory%20and%20Storage %20%20Large.ashx
  • 27. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Market Position Boutique Small Press & Local General Information
  • 28. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Budget to retool?
  • 29. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus How Will We Find Stuff? Statistics? Semantics? Will stuff find me? Metadata?
  • 30. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus What Do We Hire A Library to Do?
  • 31. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Top Ten Trending Searches on Google: 2013 Rank Overall Searches - 
 The World 2014 Overall Searches - 
 The US 2014 Overall Searches - 
 The World 2013 Overall Searches - 
 The US 2013 1 Nelson Mandela Boston Marathon Whitney Houston Whitney Houston 2 Paul Walker Government Shutdown Gangnam Style Hurricane Sandy 3 iPhone 5S VMAs Hurricane Sandy Election 2012 4 Cory Monteith Tornado in Moore, Okla. iPad 3 Hunger Games 5 Harlem Shake Royal Baby Diablo 3 Jeremy Lin 6 Boston Marathon Zimmerman Trial Kate Middleton Olympics 2012 7 Royal Baby Typhoon Hiyan Olympics 2012 Amanda Todd 8 Samsung Galaxy S4 New Pope Amanda Todd Gangnam Style 9 PlayStation 4 Syria Conflict Michael Clarke Duncan Michael Clarke Duncan 10 North Korea Maryweather vs. Canelo 55512 KONY 2012
  • 32. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 33. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Preservation or Access or ????
  • 34. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 35. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus How Will We Represent Knowledge? Does you ontology have an epistemology? RDF RDF Schema Knowledge Representation Entity- Relationships DAML OIL Frame-based Systems KR Topic Map OWL
  • 36. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus The Relationship With Publishers Pay more walk away
  • 37. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 38. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 39. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus The Relationship with Devices Lend Facilitate Ownership
  • 40. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus any better than this? Why is this…
  • 41. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Fragmented Learning Approach Holistic
  • 42. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus What Will be the Role of Place?
  • 43. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Regional and Bounded? Open with no Boundaries? The World
  • 44. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 45. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Education Influential and Leading? Irrelevant and subsistent?
  • 46. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Learning Motivation I learn 
 just-in-time I learn what my org tells me to
  • 47. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 48. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Broad-Cast (Discovery) Narrow-Cast (Over Concentrate) Curiosity
  • 49. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Personal Technology Implanted External
  • 50. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Who Will Document the Trust, Who Will Censor? Internet censorship by country
  • 51. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus What Rights Management Model will Predominate? 
 Digital Rights Management vs. Digital Restriction Management

  • 52. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus What Will We Need to Know?
  • 53. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus 90% of the jobs people will hold ten years from now don’t exist today
  • 54. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Workforce Analysis Report: Energy Sector Jobs in Greater Pittsburgh, August 2012 ! Read more: http://triblive.com/business/2618872-74/jobs-energy-report-industry-sector-fill-pennsylvania-percent-pittsburgh-region#ixzz2Cu0hS3Tj
  • 55. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Gene Screener Custom Pharmacist Quarantine Enforcer Drowned City Specialist Time Shifting Coach Robotic Mechanic Animal Guardian Entertainment Holographer Space Tour Guide Hydrogen Fuel Station Manager GMO Investigator Computational biologist Computational Artist Authenticity Engineer Biotech Distributor Parallel programmer Desalination Engineers and Operators Big Data Emgineer Simulation engineer Boomer companions, caretakers , counselors Genetic counselor Geriatric Medical Trainer Brain analyst Private Astronaut Robot builders, tenders Environmental Engineer Environment Steward Biofuel Engineer Digital Actor Sustainability Economist Data Archaeologist Choice Architect Archeo-Biologist Asteroid Miner
  • 56. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 57. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Forecasting: Future Skills Gel Gel IntegrationWindow Smart Screen Gel Manufacturin Saline Purificatio GelSpeaker Assembly Gel Speaker Repair • Follow-on research • Company Founding • Angel Funding • Venture Funding • Patent Filing • Legal Disputes • Product Announcement • Product Release • Bankruptcy • Silence
  • 58. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Analytics Insightful and Empowering Insightful and Oppressive
  • 59. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Just What is Scenario Planning?
  • 60. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Scenario Planning What we want to be tomorrow… Vision or Future State Future 1 Future 2 Future 3 Future 4 S t r a t e g y Test ideas, concepts and strategies against various plausible futures in order to understand how robust they are in the face of change Avoid surprises Test and challenge prevailing assumptions Identify emergent opportunities Prepare for adaptation Who we are & What we do today Uncertainty Create an early warning systemSWOT Understand implications for different possible future on strategies, goals and objectives
  • 61. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Outside-In Thinking © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus The World Your Industry or Field Human Capital High Influence Some Influence Environmental Factors: Little or No Influence Your Organization Market size, growth, & volatility Competitors Agencies Contractors Who you hire Regulatory environment Social Technological Economic Environmental Political
  • 62. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Scenarios are important for the conversations they spark and the decisions they inform. Scenarios Are Not Predictions… The task is not so much to see what no one 
 has yet seen, but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everyone sees. Schopenhauer:
  • 63. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus The Measure of Success Productivity vs. Serendipity SaveTime MakeConnections Measurestuff
  • 64. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Black Swans Class Warfare in the United States Locally strong pandemic effects The Great Meltdown Economic collapse & realignment Internet Security Breaches & Cyberterrorism Major Loss of Data Major Loss of Control India/China Cold War Major Loss of Access Solar Super-storm/Satellite-mageddon Rare Earth Commodity Wars Quantum Computing Plasma Rockets The Singularity
  • 65. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Introduction to Future of Learning Scenarios
  • 66. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Learning Approach Motivation Internal (Individual) Fragmented Holistic External (State/Corporation) Time Out Open LearningSubprime Learning Corporate Lifeline
  • 67. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Is a world in which… •Corporate and private partnerships have grown to define the way things are done •Your career is determined early by corporate education partners and they help you enter the workforce •The US remains the dominate global economic driver •People Live to work and work to Live Subprime Learning Time Out Open Learning Corporate Lifeline
  • 68. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Social Pervasive surveillance, less privacy Homogenous, global pop culture Information easy to find, often biased, but people don’t care “Archologies”: or corp. towns common Corporate universities play important social role Many people are time-shifted People happy, but not very fulfilled Technological Universal network accessIncreasingly centralized data access,collection & storage Unified identification Organizational-oriented reputationsystems Business Intelligence applied to workand communications Economic Steady economic recovery, largely led by the U.S. Hierarchical Strong Middle ClassGlobal oligopolies dominateReturn of “Organization” personManaged, incremental innovationEfficiency and price drive corp. behavior Trading blocks Terrorism replaced by industrial espionage Opaque rules In-sourcing Scale uber alles Green is about marketing anddiverting attentionReal work in environment only takes place where it servesinterest of the firm, ornegotiated interest with partner, either public or private Environmental Political Fluid political boundaries Strong public/private cooperation More barriers to entry legislated for new corporations Regional tensions cool as large organizations dominate culture Success measured by wealth and stability
  • 69. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 70. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Is a world in which… • Globalization has fractured • Countries and regions are turning inward to shore-up their own societies and infrastructures • Nationalism and State control predominates • The world slowly dis- integrates Subprime Learning Time Out Open Learning Corporate Lifeline
  • 71. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 72. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Social Nationalistic Repatriation Declining health from lack of international cooperation Strong local cultural identity Religious movements more conservative Education = indoctrination Technological Dis-integration Local/ Regional Sourcing State Surveillance Inter-organizational collaboration and commsInformation translation and format transcriptionboth key Regionally-oriented reputation systems Economic Stagnant world economyMore trade barriersPhysical movement of goods as important as bits Regional leaders, markets, brands and products Manufacturing returns, along with low wages Outsourced work is (re-) in-sourcedMore human labor, less automation Environmental Political Strained inter-national relations Chinese/Indian Cold War Strong anti-U.S. sentiment Multiple regional conflicts Regional standards and regulations Nationalism, regionalism, and protectionism drive agenda Education gets ideological budget increases Success measured through self-reliance Only if local or personal concern. Immediate survival or accomplishment trumpslong-term concerns
  • 73. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Is a world in which… • Deep financial crisis. • The old rules have stopped working completely • Local networks manage where national policy fails • People feel numb • Loud calls for a US Constitutional Convention • Lack of institutional trust • We take care of our own Subprime Learning Time Out Open Learning Corporate Lifeline
  • 74. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Social Street smarts trump technical expertise Constant change for the worse More violence: “not-so-smart” mobs to General sense of scarcity, shortages Fatigue with complexity Growth in fundamentalism Taking care of one’s own: focus on family, return of “tribe” and “micro-cultures” Individual self-reliance Personal security at a premium Many people feel numb Technological Reuse and refurbishmentStealing bandwidth and cable commonNeed for multiple aliasesOlder versions of software surviveNot a lot to connect toMore missed information because ofmore mis-informationCommunity-oriented reputation systems Economic Triple dip. “Incumbent” companies troubled: IP, workforce, markets, liabilities…Falling standards of livingInnovation succeeds by taking into account community problemsIncrease in the 
“grey” economyLarge areas of foreclosed homes occupied by squatters Major faults along class lines Political Loss of confidence in governments and international bodies Calls for Constitutional Convention in US Even more independence between Canadian providences Increasing influence of NGOs and social entrepreneurs Brain-drain from neoconservative] Communitization of public services, esp. at the local level EnvironmentalEconomic decline reducesenergy needsExtraction industriesslow dramaticallyWaste becomes morehuman and lessindustrial
  • 75. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 76. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Is a world in which… • Large corporations have largely become holding companies • Value-webs have taken the place of supply-chains • Individuals create their own, contextual work environments • Technological innovation is rampant and chaotic • The world into which the Millennials are taking us kicking and screaming Subprime Learning Time Out Open Learning Corporate Lifeline
  • 77. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Social Networks predominateDisorientingThe truth is crowd-sourcedGlobal identification systemsMassive mobilityPopular spirituality movements Short half-life of successPersonal brandingPeople take time to take time Open access to info. and education Just-in-Time LearningPortfolios of skills Economic Knowledge Economy Kicks in World economy remains turbulent Value webs dominate Redundancy and transparency ensure continuity Rapid boom/bust cycles Fast-paced collaborative innovation and change Smells like opportunity and optimism Fluid invention and
 re-invention Reputation is everything Personal brands Technological Emphasis on relationship management in all aspects of life Massive contact lists Blurring between enterprise and extra-enterprise networks Strength and success in open source atop common “plug- in” infrastructure Viruses rampant Security & rights management
 move to document level Personal prioritization and attention management Personal reputation systems Attention management Distributed surveillance and security Large environmental movement fueled by social connections Peer pressure becomes commonin behavior changeEverybody has the potential to actually see what happens in sensitive areas and often do Environmental Political Traditional models give way to distributed governance Highly participatory, near direct democracy Self-interests are business interests Revolutionary upheavals in education, tax structure and international relations Success measured by value of networks
  • 78. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 79. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Scenarios and Buildings
  • 80. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Implications
  • 81. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Designing Tomorrow’s Book Given what you know about technology, and within the constraints of your future, design what a book might look like, what features it might have, its licensing model, etc.
  • 82. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus The Implication for Libraries: What do People Hire the Library For? •Access to Information: Standard platform •Representation of Books: Commercial, constrained •Storage & Capacity: Near Infinite-controlled public cloud •Role of Library: Community/State meeting place •How we Measure Success: Industrial age •Rights Management: Restriction management/state •Access to Information: Digital •Representation of Books: Commercial, constrained •Storage & Capacity: Near infinite-controlled private cloud •Role of Library: Extension of professional development, research •How we Measure Success: Industrial age •Rights Management: Restriction management •Access to Information: Physical •Representation of Books: Paper •Storage & Capacity: Limited •Role of Library: Community space, learning center •How we Measure Success: Knowledge economy •Rights Management: Communal Ownership •Access to Information: Primarily digital. •Representation of Books: Open interoperability. •Storage & Capacity: Near infinite, cloud and personnal •Role of Library: Virtual and physical community •How we Measure Success: Knowledge economy •Rights Management: Ownership and personal control
  • 83. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus error sit voluptatem accusantium doloremque laudantium, totam rem aperiam, eaque ipsa quae ab illo inventore veritatis et quasi architecto beatae vitae dicta sunt explicabo. Nemo enim ipsam voluptatem quia voluptas sit aspernatur aut odit aut fugit, sed quia consequuntur magni dolores eos qui ratione voluptatem sequi nesciunt. Neque porro quisquam est, qui dolorem ipsum quia dolor sit amet, consectetur, adipisci velit, sed quia non numquam eius modi tempora incidunt ut labore et dolore magnam aliquam quaerat voluptatem. Ut enim ad minima veniam, quis nostrum exercitationem ullam corporis suscipit laboriosam, nisi ut aliquid ex ea commodi consequatur? Quis autem vel eum iure reprehenderit qui in ea voluptate velit esse quam nihil molestiae consequatur, vel illum qui dolorem eum fugiat quo voluptas nulla pariatur? At vero eos et accusamus et iusto odio dignissimos ducimus qui blanditiis praesentium voluptatum deleniti atque corrupti quos dolores et quas molestias excepturi sint occaecati cupiditate non provident, similique sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollitia animi, id est laborum et dolorum fuga. Et harum quidem rerum facilis est et expedita distinctio. Nam libero tempore, cum soluta nobis est eligendi optio cumque nihil impedit quo minus id quod maxime placeat facere possimus, omnis voluptas assumenda est, omnis dolor repellendus. Temporibus autem quibusdam et aut officiis debitis aut rerum necessitatibus saepe eveniet ut et voluptates repudiandae sint et molestiae non recusandae. Itaque earum rerum hic tenetur a sapiente delectus, ut aut reiciendis voluptatibus maiores alias consequatur aut perferendis doloribus asperiores repellat. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipisicing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum. Metadata about ideas $-Pay for accessAuthor & Experts Cloud Personal Social Network Lectures “blog” for owners only Book can be “reconstructed” in a non-linear way around key ideas other references: in-app purchase meme tracking: is this still relevant? If so, to what, to whom? Interaction metrics back to publishers-What part of the book is engaging the reader? You choose where to display (including wall or table) Including which App DRM-Pass Thru Persistent Notes right to resell - lend Share socially down to idea Intelligent paper interacts with e-copies You decidewhere it lives! Perpetual content license with migration fees
  • 84. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus The future is uncertain and you have to put a name on uncertainty. You can’t predict the future. How you currently think about the future is dangerous. Take-Aways
  • 85. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus WHY? Because we have to plan not only for the future we want, but for the future we are given.
  • 86. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Change is a Design Problem
  • 87. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
  • 88. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus Thank You
  • 89. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus For more information, please contact: ! ! ! ! ! ! 425.868.0271 dwrasmus@danielwrasmus.com seriousinsights.net ! ! ! @DanielWRasmus

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