During my short upfront intervention,After all the macro economic indicators which we saw, and how we saw the baltics get out its “dip”, i would like to describe even a more prosporour outlook , and explain you the “GOLDEN AGE “ for the baltics.At the end an investment forum, is all about “opportunity”, “growth” and “believe”.the “GOLDEN AGE “definition for the Baltics, has been explained by the theorema of Prof. Carlota Perez, prof. At Talinn univerisity, and particularly highlights the role of IT in modern societies.I would like to emphasize the continuous “INNOVATION” which ICT plays within the socio-economic framework of a country or a region, and its impact on competitiveness. In his book, the NEW NORMAL, Peter Hinssen writes: “hte new normal - de facto the world is DIGITAL...........” our communications, our information management, our trading, our leisure. The ICT industry has kept “investing” in innovation.And i would also like to highlight the “power” of new forms of regional innovation partnerships which we see taking place.
To explain this concept, that we are at the dawn of a golden age for the Baltics, thanks to ICT, i would like to explain 4 important concepts, which underpin this.......ICT has become a general purpose technology ICT has become a utility and a serviceThe huge power of INFORMATIONThe need and the creativity required for new form of partnership.......in light of open innovation or co-innovation!
Observation 1: - ICT is a general purpose technology ..... It is supportive to all business sectors in society - ICT creates networking effects, and spill over effects........it is a productivity booster...........education level of people, seamless integration of supply chain, ordering, transactions etc. - a study of the EU revealed: The ICT sector is directly responsible for 5% of European GDP, with a market value of € 660 billion annually, but it contributes far more to overall productivity growth (20% directly from the ICT sector and 30% from ICT investments).Observation 2: theorem of Carlota Perez - we are living now in a GOLDEN AGE.Interesting studies done by Carlota Perez, Professor now in Talin – and her thesis title here – in 2006Each technological revolution propagates in 2 different periodsA period of installationAnd a period of deploymentIn the period of installation, you have the eruption and then the frenzyTHEN A bubble....... With stock exchange collapse ( look at the year 2000)And then a period of synergy and maturityThe first period is led by financial capital, and leading to the “explosion”The second period is led by production capital, and is a more organic growthMAJOR TECHNOLOGY BUBBLES AS ENDOGENOUS PHENOMENA A major technology bubble (MTB) is not an accidental event. It regularly occurs midway along the process of assimilation of each technological revolution. It is the paroxystic culmination of twenty or thirty years of market experimentation, centred on new breakthrough technologies and spurred by the extraordinary profits produced by them. The ensuing collapse not only results in the return to more sensible real values and a reconnection with the real economy; it also signals the end of a period when financial capital is in control of investment to a period in which control passes over to production capital. irruption of the revolution, two or three decades of a turbulent Installation period ending in a major bubble collapse, then a recomposition of the socio-institutional framework that regulates finance and sets the conditions for the final Deployment period, a time of more organic growth that lasts until maturity and exhaustion are reached, setting the stage for the irruption of the next technological revolution.9Table 1 Five great surges of growth and five major technology bubbles 1. BIG-BANG: year and core country 2. GREAT SURGE 3. MAJOR TECHNOLOGY BUBBLE(S) in Installation 4. COLLAPSE year and country 5. Deployment 1771 England The “Industrial Revolution” (mechanisation and water transport) Canal mania 1793 England Great British Leap 1829 U.K. The Age of Steam and Iron Railways Railway mania 1847 Great Britain Victorian Boom 1875 U.K. USA and Germany The Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering (civil, chemical, electrical and naval) First globalisation Multiple bubbles from build-up of world infrastructure for global trade in commodities (steel railways, steamships, ports, telegraph, etc.) financed mainly from the City of London 1890-93 Argentina (Baring crisis), Australia, etc. Belle Époque (Europe) Progressive Era (USA) 1908 USA The Age of the Automobile, Oil and Petrochemicals Roaring twenties 1929 USA Post WWII Boom 1971 USA The Age of Information and Digital communications Second Globalisation Double bubble: Internet mania followed by financial boom of the 2000s 2000 and 2007-08 USA A sustainable global Knowledge Society boom? Key examples:1829: the age of steam and iron railways – railway mania – 1847 bubble in great britain – victorian boom1875: the age of steel and heavy engineering - multiple bubbles, build up of infrastructure, trade in commodities bubble: argentina baring crisis1908: the age of automobile and oil – roaring twenties – 1929 crisis in the US – post WW2 boom1971: the age of ict – internet mania – and bubble - now a sustainable global knowledge boom
Cloud: - IT as a utility – IT offered as services. - architectural element.......BUT more important: 2 important ECONOMIC advantages: cost savings ( 30%), time to market - the concept of ALL IT services offered as a service over the internet: storage, computing, networking, applications, software - large datacenters offering “services” over broadband networks - infrastructure , platform and applications as a serviceCLOUD business drivers: - overall cost reduction of 30% - overall agility growth: from weeks deployment, to days deployment - From capex to opexCLOUD scoping:- hotmail: 155 PB storage, growing 2PB per month ( 2000 terabytes, or 2 million gigabytes) - facebook: 1 billion accounts More interesting is now happening : the INTERNET of things...... Sensing, and tagging..........The Applets concept as a generic concept for “application distribution”IT as a service - general appliances - massive data points - architectural implications - complete new ecosystem ( appliances, applications, devices, usage patterns)The unique position of Lithuania, and Baltics into this adoption curveThe capital Vilnius has the fastest Internet in the world11st in the World competitiveness yearbook rankings for communications technology21st in Europe for Fiber to the Home/Building connectivity with 28% penetration in 201131st in Europe for density of network of public Internet access points (875)Highest mobile phone penetration44 position in the WEF competitive indexThe BALTICS can adopt the cloud like NO-ONE else.....
3rd theme: the emphasis which changes from technology to information!!!!!!!Clear shift from the technology to the INFORMATIONStudies show a huge “under usage” of information......in company....outside company......decision making, 50% not a real effective information plan35% of organizations not effective in accessing data for legal/compliance or operational needsWHICH information: 85% is unstructured.....versus 15% structured: video streams, email, chat, social networks, webpages etc.What to do with the information: there lies the productivity gain!!!!!!!big data analysis, unstructured data analysis, the collaboration, pro-active marketing, trends analysis, auditing, How to support the new business models where everything is focuses on the “The engagement model”From systems of record to systems of engagementFrom transactions to interactions orientedFrom data centric to user experience centricUser learns the system, to the system learns the userHUGE POTENTIAL in this GOLDEN AGE to explore INFORMATION for ALL new business models. And be excellent in this....(anecdote UN or governments asking for a document management system)The business and potential of deep data analysisAuditing/search/social networks
INNOVATION in this CLOUD , utility based model, will not stop - new form factors of appliances - no distinction in between consumer and professional user - windows 8 - phones apps concepts which will become ubiquitous FOR ALL interaction devicesCREATION of OPPORTUNITY for ISV’s, rewriting of core applications, new applicationsWe see opportunities ….... to drive advantage through the massive size of our supply chain (and through our expertise)… to leverage our go-to-market network covering 170 countries... to grow in the tablets category… And to capture more share in all-in-ones, which are expected to grow 4% through 2015We also understand that consumerization is real. We understand that people care about beauty … and elegance … and function, regardless of whether they are at work, at home or on the go. With this in mind, we have doubled our design staff.
last point CONCLUSIONS – new form of partnerships are needed.ANY COMPANY has innovation assets, like we at HP - our innovation strategy , starting with the garage - our HP labs and of course our continuous innovation in products and services.Thegarage in 1939 where Dave Packard and Bill Hewlett....precision audio oscilator538 usd The garage in 2011 was a crowdsourcing “application”......asking all employeesBright ideas, especiallay in the PPS teamsCampaign has run 4 times INNOVATION WITH CUSTOMERS - social innovation - partnerships, new partnerships......co –innovationWHY NOT BE CREATIVE? DISRUPTIVE TIMES NEED DISRUPTIVE SOLUTIONS - why with this brilliant infrastructure embrace the cloud – provide its services – reduce cost – and boost adoption of e-government service? - Why not like the french ( Orange, thales, government) ANDROMEDE create a Lithuanian shared services hub, for the government, with the government? - Why not completely outsource the IT operations, and immediately jump on this new model, finally meeting the e-government requirements and raise the bar - Why not put this on the agenda of the prime minister....ONE CIO, one department who steers the overall adoption.
Investment forums are about “opportunity”NEVER ENDING INNOVATION IN ICTTHE UNIQUE POSITION OF THE BALTICS, through EDUCATION, CONNECTIVITY, the adoption of the DIGITAL WORLDTHE MATURITY CURVES as part of production through CLOUD infrastructure AND INFORMATION optimizationAnd the OPPORTUNITY for new partnerships...WE believe for investors, for the citizens, this IS the dawn of a golden age of the baltics could arrive.WE LIKE TO PARTNER for that!