Thomas Lovejoy, WILD9

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Thomas Lovejoy, WILD9

  1. 1. DR THOMAS LOVEJOY USA THE WILD ANSWER TO CLIMATE CHANGE
  2. 2. Dr. Svante August Arrhenius 1859-1927
  3. 3. Source: Wallace Broecker Analysis of a Greenland ice core oxygen isotope proxy
  4. 5. Tibet
  5. 7. Rising sea level
  6. 8. Kew Magazine, Summer 2007 Climate Change at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
  7. 9. Source: Camille Parmesan Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier <ul><li>Across the USA, tree swallows are nesting 9 days earlier than 40 years ago </li></ul><ul><li>Laying date is highly correlated with May temperature </li></ul>
  8. 10. Edith’s Checkerspot <ul><li>Range shift northward and upward during the 20th century </li></ul><ul><li>Most extinctions in south and low elevations </li></ul>
  9. 11. Decoupling Snowshoe Hare ( Lepus Americanus ) Photos: University of Michigan
  10. 12. Replacement of marine copepod plankton communities in NE Atlantic Source: Beaugrand et al. Science 2002
  11. 13. Climate Change includes precipitation change Precipitation Projected changes for 2090 Temperature
  12. 14. American pika ( Ochotona princeps ) photo: J. MacKENZIE / www.pikaworks.com
  13. 15. Key Deer Population Low: 27 in 1957 Population today: Between 700 and 800 Photo courtesy of National Key Deer Refuge <ul><li>National Key Deer Refuge </li></ul><ul><li>Big Pine Key, Florida </li></ul><ul><li>84,000 acres, Established 1957 </li></ul>
  14. 16. Complications T HE H . J OHN H EINZ III C ENTER FOR S CIENCE, E CONOMICS AND THE E NVIRONMENT Landscape is human dominated & habitat is fragmented Species don’t move together Change will not be linear or gradual System change 4 1 3 2
  15. 18. Ecosystems disassemble and species reassemble into new ecosystems Source: G.M. Hewitt and Nichols, R.A. 2005
  16. 20. © WWF-Cannon / Jurgen Freund
  17. 21. Mountain Pine Beetle outbreaks (1959-2002) Courtesy of Mike Bradley, Canfor Corporation
  18. 23. (1) Arctic sea-ice (2) Greenland ice-sheet stability (3) Antarctic ice-sheet stability (4) Major ecosystem disruption Why is a CO 2 target of 450ppm too high ?
  19. 24. What is a “safe” level? James Hansen, et al., 2008 350 ppm
  20. 25. What can be done Adaptation -Revise conservation strategies Limit Greenhouse Gas Concentrations -Revise the energy base for society -Reduce/eliminate deforestation Restore Ecosystems -Biodiversity and carbon
  21. 26. Increase natural connectivity to facilitate species movement Adaptation: Revise conservation strategies Minimize climate change impacts by reducing other stresses, e.g., siltation on coral reefs
  22. 27. Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (2000-2007) Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated) 1.5 Pg C y -1 + 7.5 Pg C y -1 Atmosphere 46% 4.2 Pg y -1 Land 29% 2.6 Pg y -1 Oceans 26% 2.3 Pg y -1
  23. 28. 20% Annual Emissions from Tropical Deforestation
  24. 29. Over the past three centuries, ecosystems have lost 200-250 billion tons of carbon
  25. 30. Origin of land plants Expansion of angiosperms Present-day CO 2 The Role of Life Processes
  26. 31. Re-Greening the Emerald Planet
  27. 32. T HE H . J OHN H EINZ III C ENTER FOR S CIENCE, E CONOMICS AND THE E NVIRONMENT

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