Web. 3.0: The Rise of the Mobile and Application Era


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Presented at the Future of Digital Marketing in London, June 15, 2011. How mobile delivery, application design, and semantic data are remaking the online experience.

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  • All the data presented in this is posted online as a PDF. I don’t think you get to be credible talking about the future without first sharing a good take on the trajectory of the present.15 years – ubiquitous.
  • Ubiquitous and unstructure….many of its business forms and use cases are still coming in to focus.
  • I help companies find the must-win battles that will change their businesses online, and then configure to get their first.
  • Behavior is driven by appitite.Supply and demand can change appitite
  • IN BOX - Thisis why CMP is dying.
  • Do You Need to Discover More Relationships?Do You Want Technology to Help You Get Stuff Done
  • The New promise
  • Experience and Attention. (trans. Technology Changes…)
  • “Relationship pipe” to owners.Improve ownership experience.Streamline service orders.More active two way communication.See how manuals are really used.Sell position to related services.Potential future interactions with auto telemetry.
  • Introduction of systems allows two way communication,
  • Not just smart phones….mobile is huge.
  • I’ll suggest the over lap of employed people and mobile phone owners correspond closely.Considering some of those without phones are babies, or live in the 10% of the world not covered by signal, this is impressive!
  • SMS Tripled in Four Years (1.8T to 6.1T)That’s 200,000 sent / second. Or at an average cost of .07/ $14,000 per second.China’s largest telecomebooks SMS as 12% of their revenue. CTR ranges from 5% - 25%. Calvin Kline is an example.
  • This is the first time in thirty years that a non-wintel product has eroded PC market size. Pandora – 40% of traffic goes to mobile only users.
  • Cisco Predicts: Mobile Only Internet to globally from 13M in ‘10 to 788M in ‘15.North America: 2M to 55M.Asia Pacific: 2M to 420M
  • In 2006 17% of pages in Japan were served on mobile device, today that’s 84%, and only 16% are desktop. – If you care about mobile, this chart is profound. Apple changed the game with iPod, offering a vertically integrated solution which married hardware, software and content into one seamless ecosystem. Apple's iPod caused a major disruption in the marketplace. iPhone and iPad are driving a larger trend, but I’ll share specific data on these devices later in the presentation.
  • This would put it on footing with GE’s current sales level. GE is 157M rev today.
  • Recall Your Purchase History / Make Lists.Submit order for drive through pick up.Map item locations.Provide offers targeted to current intent.Pay via Near Field Communication.One in 5 star bucks purchases are via Starbucks card. 1/3 of its customers use smart phones.Starbucks mobile payment is via a card token.Provides client level purchase preference data
  • Convenience, Connection and Consumption.
  • CITA – wireless assoc. MOU to be passed by texts.Nielsen: teens 21x more text messages. (leads all demos under 50).Over ¼ use mobile for social.
  • Behavior is driven by appitite.
  • UX, AJAX providesasynchJavascript.
  • I frequently see enterprise apps in the 50k – 100k range.
  • Figure out the Why for your business. (Why this helps make money.)The look at the Who, audience research will define the how.The launch plan is critical.
  • Unprecedented leadership. Integrate – DIGITAL BUSINESS
  • Capability | Creative | Commerce
  • Talk About Reuters.
  • Of course, that means YOU!
  • Web. 3.0: The Rise of the Mobile and Application Era

    1. 1. Web. 3.0:The Rise of the Mobile and Application Era<br />Dave Wieneke@usefularts<br />
    2. 2. In an Attention Economy<br />2<br />“<br />”<br />Freedom is Conceptual Space.<br />
    3. 3. 3<br />
    4. 4. 4<br />
    5. 5. 5<br />
    6. 6. 6<br />
    7. 7. Dave Wienekehttp://www.usefularts.us@usefularts<br />Published Tech Magazines, Ran start-ups & two .govs<br />Christian Science Monitor<br />Thomson Reuters IP Legal<br />Sokolove Law<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    8. 8. Today’s Flight Plan<br />Next Web in a Nutshell<br />Drivers: Delivery, Design and Data<br />Change to Business<br />Marketing’s Ascent<br />http://www.foreflight.com<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    9. 9. 9<br />“<br />Revolution is measured in behavior.<br />”<br />
    10. 10. What We Need Has Changed.<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    11. 11. How About a Scarcity of “Social” Connections?<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    12. 12. 12<br />“<br />Content Was Never King.<br />Helping Your Audience is King.<br />”<br />
    13. 13. Easy Technology to Get Stuff Done<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    14. 14. Old: Content Economy<br />Creation Tools Rule<br />14<br />
    15. 15. New: Attention Economy<br />Smart consumption and execution of content.<br />15<br />
    16. 16. New Digital Products as Marketing<br />16<br />
    17. 17. Relationship Pipes for Manufacturers<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    18. 18. InformationTransfer<br />PersonalCommunication<br />Application Experience<br />Used with permission from Miko Coffey<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    19. 19. Three Huge Waves<br />19<br />Mobile DeliveryUbiquity & Context<br />Application DesignUser Experience<br />Integrated Data<br />Interoperability<br />
    20. 20. 20<br />Mobile Delivery<br />Ubiquity & Context<br />
    21. 21. Marketing Will Start With Mobile<br />21<br />6.9 Billion People <br />5.2B have <br />mobile phones<br />Only 1.6B<br />have TVs<br />1.0B<br />have cars<br />1.2B<br />have PCs<br />
    22. 22. SMS: 3x, 200k / @14k/sec, 12%<br />22<br />
    23. 23. End of PC Dominance<br />IDC & Gartner show PC sales eroding (4.8-6.6%) <br />Goldman Sachs predicts tablets will cannibalize one in three US PC sales this year.<br />Smart Phones to Out Ship PC’s in 2012. (Meeker)<br />Smart Phones to out consume PC’s in bandwidth 2013 (Gartner)<br />http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20110112-907810.html<br />http://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/desktop/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=229000646<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    24. 24. “Mobile Only” Segment on 56x Growth Path<br />24<br />http://brunocullen.wordpress.com/2011/01/10/cisco-visual-networking-index-global-mobile-data-traffic-forecast-update-2009-2014/<br />
    25. 25. Audience Desire is Leading Publishers<br />120<br />~120MM+<br />Mobile Internet<br />iPhone + iTouch + iPad<br />Launched 6/07<br />100<br />Desktop Internet<br />Netscape*<br />Launched 12/94<br />80<br />Subscribers (MM)<br />60<br />Mobile Internet<br />NTT docomoi-mode<br />Launched 6/99<br />~32MM<br />40<br />Desktop Internet<br />AOL*<br />v. 2.0 Launched 9/94<br />~27MM<br />20<br />~9MM<br />Q1<br />Q3<br />Q5<br />Q7<br />Q9<br />Q11<br />Q13<br />Q15<br />Q17<br />Q19<br />Quarters Since Launch<br />iPhone + iTouch<br />NTT docomoi-mode<br />AOL<br />Netscape<br />Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94: Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~65MM+ netbooks have shipped in first 11 quarters since launch (10/07). <br />Source: Company Reports, Morgan Stanley Research Data as of CQ3:10<br />Morgan Stanley<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    26. 26. App Sales Opportunity: $150 Billion by 2014<br />Gartner projects mobile app sales: <br /> 2010: sales topped $5.2bn <br /> 2011: explosion to $15.1bn. It expects total <br /> 2014: Exponential growth to $150bn<br />Stephanie BaghdassarianResearch Director at Gartner<br />= $65Bn annual sales.<br />= $62Bn annual sales.<br />http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=143686<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    27. 27. 27<br />ApplicationDesign<br />UserExperience<br />
    28. 28. The Best Digital is Pageless<br />28<br />PERSON<br />Personalization<br />
    29. 29. Design Is Highly Interactive<br />29<br />User UX Bar is Headed Up<br />
    30. 30. Remake Business<br />30<br />http://www.retailtouchpoints.com/cross-channel-strategies/690-starbucks-disney-and-guess-up-the-ante-with-mobile-pos.html<br />
    31. 31. The Automotive Dealing Desk of Death<br />31<br />
    32. 32. Stay in the Car!<br />32<br />
    33. 33. Pick Platforms to Start<br />33<br />
    34. 34. 34<br />IntegratedData<br />Interoperability<br />
    35. 35. Data is the New Oil Of Commerce<br />35<br />
    36. 36. Old: content to delivery model<br />Content Enrichment is Ongoing<br />Write <br />Post<br />Archive<br />New: content enriched toward app experience<br />Enrichment<br />Analytics<br />Post<br />Programmatic calls,behavioral enrichment<br />Tagging, auto links,production enrichment<br />Write <br />Delivery<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    37. 37. Platform Reality: Top 10 Sites Consolidate Traffic<br />100%<br />75%<br />50%<br />25%<br />0%<br />2001<br />2006<br />2010<br />Source: Complete data presented in Wired Aug 2010<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    38. 38. Platforms are the New Networks (Think Like a Broadcaster)<br />Netflix22% of all prime time fixed line traffic.<br />USC Center for the Digital Future<br />Online TV / Video Consumption to Skyrocketto 50hrs per week.<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    39. 39. 39<br />Google940 MM Users<br />+11% YY<br />
    40. 40. 40<br />Facebook<br />620MM Users+51% YY<br />
    41. 41. Platforms Trumping Sites<br />41<br />Starbucks FB gets 12x Its Brand Site Traffic<br />
    42. 42. Platforms Will Organize Online Alliances<br />Web 3.0<br />Utilities<identity, payment, analytics, advertising><br />Communications< IM, Voice, Video, Social><br />Centralization<audience & API><br />Customer Loyalty to Platform<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    43. 43. Voice Splits From the Phone<br />43<br />Integration of calling tosocial channels expands addressable ad inventory.<br />http://adage.com/article/digitalnext/forget-post-pc-post-phone-era/228022/<br />
    44. 44. 44<br />The future will not be a faster bigger version of today. <br />
    45. 45. Barrier of Entry Helps Larger Players<br />45<br />
    46. 46. Web App or Native App?<br />HTML5 can provide app-like, non page experiences without platform dependencies.<br />Accessibility, Speed, Cost, Data, Familiar.Native Apps retain some device advantages.<br />Got Flash?<br />My Marketing is<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    47. 47. Web Apps Are Not Censored<br />With great integration comes decreasing privacy and control.<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    48. 48. There is a Low Range for App Development<br />48<br />Self reported by contractors on “They Make Apps”<br />
    49. 49. Marketing Sets the Stage<br />49<br />Why<br />Who<br />The launch plan is critical.<br />
    50. 50. Digital marketing is reaching escape velocity<br />50<br />
    51. 51. 51<br />Digital business extends through the firm<br />Email Bi/AnalyticsWeb CMSCRM Mobile Apps<br />Community<br />
    52. 52. “<br />”<br />Put your best people on mobile.<br />- Eric SchmidtChairman, Google<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    53. 53. Put Yourself on Mobile<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
    54. 54. ThanksLinks & Info Grids Online atwww.UsefulArts.us<br />Tweet: @usefulartsEmail: strategy2.0@gmail.com<br />Special thanks eConsultancyfor access to research,Peer Summit discussions, and their online community.<br />
    55. 55. Especially Influential in US<br />55<br />Top 5 iPad countries<br />Top 5 Android countries<br />Source: AdMob<br />