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Web. 3.0:The Rise of the Mobile and Application Era
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Web. 3.0: The Rise of the Mobile and Application Era

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Presented at the Future of Digital Marketing in London, June 15, 2011. How mobile delivery, application design, and semantic data are remaking the online experience.

Presented at the Future of Digital Marketing in London, June 15, 2011. How mobile delivery, application design, and semantic data are remaking the online experience.

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  • All the data presented in this is posted online as a PDF. I don’t think you get to be credible talking about the future without first sharing a good take on the trajectory of the present.15 years – ubiquitous.
  • Ubiquitous and unstructure….many of its business forms and use cases are still coming in to focus.
  • I help companies find the must-win battles that will change their businesses online, and then configure to get their first.
  • Behavior is driven by appitite.Supply and demand can change appitite
  • IN BOX - Thisis why CMP is dying.
  • Do You Need to Discover More Relationships?Do You Want Technology to Help You Get Stuff Done
  • The New promise
  • Experience and Attention. (trans. Technology Changes…)
  • “Relationship pipe” to owners.Improve ownership experience.Streamline service orders.More active two way communication.See how manuals are really used.Sell position to related services.Potential future interactions with auto telemetry.
  • Introduction of systems allows two way communication,
  • Not just smart phones….mobile is huge.
  • I’ll suggest the over lap of employed people and mobile phone owners correspond closely.Considering some of those without phones are babies, or live in the 10% of the world not covered by signal, this is impressive!
  • SMS Tripled in Four Years (1.8T to 6.1T)That’s 200,000 sent / second. Or at an average cost of .07/ $14,000 per second.China’s largest telecomebooks SMS as 12% of their revenue. CTR ranges from 5% - 25%. Calvin Kline is an example.
  • This is the first time in thirty years that a non-wintel product has eroded PC market size. Pandora – 40% of traffic goes to mobile only users.
  • Cisco Predicts: Mobile Only Internet to globally from 13M in ‘10 to 788M in ‘15.North America: 2M to 55M.Asia Pacific: 2M to 420M
  • In 2006 17% of pages in Japan were served on mobile device, today that’s 84%, and only 16% are desktop. – If you care about mobile, this chart is profound. Apple changed the game with iPod, offering a vertically integrated solution which married hardware, software and content into one seamless ecosystem. Apple's iPod caused a major disruption in the marketplace. iPhone and iPad are driving a larger trend, but I’ll share specific data on these devices later in the presentation.
  • This would put it on footing with GE’s current sales level. GE is 157M rev today.
  • Recall Your Purchase History / Make Lists.Submit order for drive through pick up.Map item locations.Provide offers targeted to current intent.Pay via Near Field Communication.One in 5 star bucks purchases are via Starbucks card. 1/3 of its customers use smart phones.Starbucks mobile payment is via a card token.Provides client level purchase preference data
  • Convenience, Connection and Consumption.
  • CITA – wireless assoc. MOU to be passed by texts.Nielsen: teens 21x more text messages. (leads all demos under 50).Over ¼ use mobile for social.
  • Behavior is driven by appitite.
  • UX, AJAX providesasynchJavascript.
  • I frequently see enterprise apps in the 50k – 100k range.
  • Figure out the Why for your business. (Why this helps make money.)The look at the Who, audience research will define the how.The launch plan is critical.
  • Unprecedented leadership. Integrate – DIGITAL BUSINESS
  • Capability | Creative | Commerce
  • Talk About Reuters.
  • Of course, that means YOU!

Web. 3.0:The Rise of the Mobile and Application Era Web. 3.0: The Rise of the Mobile and Application Era Presentation Transcript

  • Web. 3.0:The Rise of the Mobile and Application Era
    Dave Wieneke@usefularts
  • In an Attention Economy
    2


    Freedom is Conceptual Space.
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • Dave Wienekehttp://www.usefularts.us@usefularts
    Published Tech Magazines, Ran start-ups & two .govs
    Christian Science Monitor
    Thomson Reuters IP Legal
    Sokolove Law
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • Today’s Flight Plan
    Next Web in a Nutshell
    Drivers: Delivery, Design and Data
    Change to Business
    Marketing’s Ascent
    http://www.foreflight.com
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • 9

    Revolution is measured in behavior.

  • What We Need Has Changed.
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • How About a Scarcity of “Social” Connections?
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • 12

    Content Was Never King.
    Helping Your Audience is King.

  • Easy Technology to Get Stuff Done
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • Old: Content Economy
    Creation Tools Rule
    14
  • New: Attention Economy
    Smart consumption and execution of content.
    15
  • New Digital Products as Marketing
    16
  • Relationship Pipes for Manufacturers
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • InformationTransfer
    PersonalCommunication
    Application Experience
    Used with permission from Miko Coffey
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • Three Huge Waves
    19
    Mobile DeliveryUbiquity & Context
    Application DesignUser Experience
    Integrated Data
    Interoperability
  • 20
    Mobile Delivery
    Ubiquity & Context
  • Marketing Will Start With Mobile
    21
    6.9 Billion People
    5.2B have
    mobile phones
    Only 1.6B
    have TVs
    1.0B
    have cars
    1.2B
    have PCs
  • SMS: 3x, 200k / @14k/sec, 12%
    22
  • End of PC Dominance
    IDC & Gartner show PC sales eroding (4.8-6.6%)
    Goldman Sachs predicts tablets will cannibalize one in three US PC sales this year.
    Smart Phones to Out Ship PC’s in 2012. (Meeker)
    Smart Phones to out consume PC’s in bandwidth 2013 (Gartner)
    http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20110112-907810.html
    http://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/desktop/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=229000646
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • “Mobile Only” Segment on 56x Growth Path
    24
    http://brunocullen.wordpress.com/2011/01/10/cisco-visual-networking-index-global-mobile-data-traffic-forecast-update-2009-2014/
  • Audience Desire is Leading Publishers
    120
    ~120MM+
    Mobile Internet
    iPhone + iTouch + iPad
    Launched 6/07
    100
    Desktop Internet
    Netscape*
    Launched 12/94
    80
    Subscribers (MM)
    60
    Mobile Internet
    NTT docomoi-mode
    Launched 6/99
    ~32MM
    40
    Desktop Internet
    AOL*
    v. 2.0 Launched 9/94
    ~27MM
    20
    ~9MM
    Q1
    Q3
    Q5
    Q7
    Q9
    Q11
    Q13
    Q15
    Q17
    Q19
    Quarters Since Launch
    iPhone + iTouch
    NTT docomoi-mode
    AOL
    Netscape
    Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94: Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~65MM+ netbooks have shipped in first 11 quarters since launch (10/07).
    Source: Company Reports, Morgan Stanley Research Data as of CQ3:10
    Morgan Stanley
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • App Sales Opportunity: $150 Billion by 2014
    Gartner projects mobile app sales:
    2010: sales topped $5.2bn
    2011: explosion to $15.1bn. It expects total
    2014: Exponential growth to $150bn
    Stephanie BaghdassarianResearch Director at Gartner
    = $65Bn annual sales.
    = $62Bn annual sales.
    http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=143686
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • 27
    ApplicationDesign
    UserExperience
  • The Best Digital is Pageless
    28
    PERSON
    Personalization
  • Design Is Highly Interactive
    29
    User UX Bar is Headed Up
  • Remake Business
    30
    http://www.retailtouchpoints.com/cross-channel-strategies/690-starbucks-disney-and-guess-up-the-ante-with-mobile-pos.html
  • The Automotive Dealing Desk of Death
    31
  • Stay in the Car!
    32
  • Pick Platforms to Start
    33
  • 34
    IntegratedData
    Interoperability
  • Data is the New Oil Of Commerce
    35
  • Old: content to delivery model
    Content Enrichment is Ongoing
    Write
    Post
    Archive
    New: content enriched toward app experience
    Enrichment
    Analytics
    Post
    Programmatic calls,behavioral enrichment
    Tagging, auto links,production enrichment
    Write
    Delivery
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • Platform Reality: Top 10 Sites Consolidate Traffic
    100%
    75%
    50%
    25%
    0%
    2001
    2006
    2010
    Source: Complete data presented in Wired Aug 2010
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • Platforms are the New Networks (Think Like a Broadcaster)
    Netflix22% of all prime time fixed line traffic.
    USC Center for the Digital Future
    Online TV / Video Consumption to Skyrocketto 50hrs per week.
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • 39
    Google940 MM Users
    +11% YY
  • 40
    Facebook
    620MM Users+51% YY
  • Platforms Trumping Sites
    41
    Starbucks FB gets 12x Its Brand Site Traffic
  • Platforms Will Organize Online Alliances
    Web 3.0
    Utilities<identity, payment, analytics, advertising>
    Communications< IM, Voice, Video, Social>
    Centralization<audience & API>
    Customer Loyalty to Platform
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • Voice Splits From the Phone
    43
    Integration of calling tosocial channels expands addressable ad inventory.
    http://adage.com/article/digitalnext/forget-post-pc-post-phone-era/228022/
  • 44
    The future will not be a faster bigger version of today.
  • Barrier of Entry Helps Larger Players
    45
  • Web App or Native App?
    HTML5 can provide app-like, non page experiences without platform dependencies.
    Accessibility, Speed, Cost, Data, Familiar.Native Apps retain some device advantages.
    Got Flash?
    My Marketing is
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • Web Apps Are Not Censored
    With great integration comes decreasing privacy and control.
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • There is a Low Range for App Development
    48
    Self reported by contractors on “They Make Apps”
  • Marketing Sets the Stage
    49
    Why
    Who
    The launch plan is critical.
  • Digital marketing is reaching escape velocity
    50
  • 51
    Digital business extends through the firm
    Email Bi/AnalyticsWeb CMSCRM Mobile Apps
    Community


  • Put your best people on mobile.
    - Eric SchmidtChairman, Google
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • Put Yourself on Mobile
    Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us
  • ThanksLinks & Info Grids Online atwww.UsefulArts.us
    Tweet: @usefulartsEmail: strategy2.0@gmail.com
    Special thanks eConsultancyfor access to research,Peer Summit discussions, and their online community.
  • Especially Influential in US
    55
    Top 5 iPad countries
    Top 5 Android countries
    Source: AdMob