1WHY YOU SHOULD:    DEMOCRAT    REPUBLICAN
2        WHY YOU SHOULD VOTE DEMOCRATSECTION 1            PRESIDENT OBAMA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES ARE            WORKING FINES...
3SECTION 1PRESIDENT OBAMA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES         ARE WORKING FINE
4PRESIDENT OBAMA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES ARE WORKING FINE    When Mr. Romney (and other Republicans) tell you “President    Ob...
5Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Graph                              Fourth quarter 2008:                         ...
6                             Real GDP is doing fineGOOD GDP GROWTH: 1982-1995    BUBBLE: 1996-2008   OBAMA BACK TO GOOD G...
7                  U.S Unemployment Rate                           Monthly Back to 1941                                   ...
8                      U-6 Unemployment                    January, 2012 = 15.1%                October, 2009             ...
9     Change in Payroll Jobs per Month (ex-Census)                                    Bush’s LegacyJANUARY-INAUGURATED   F...
10                        Private sector job creation   Source: http://www.classwarfareexists.com/chart-private-sector-job...
11Real Retail Sales Cumulative Growth Since 1959RETAIL SALES GROWING FASTER THAN THE 60 YEAR TREND - OBAMANOMICS WORKING!
12                         Retail Sales (billions $)Mike Norman Economics         RETAIL SALES ABOVE PRE-RECESSION LEVEL -...
13           Real Exports of Goods & ServicesEXPORTS ABOVE TREND AND PRE-RECESSION LEVEL - OBAMA ECONOMY WORKING
14                        Corporate Profits (billions $)Mike Norman Economics              CORPORATE PROFITS AT ALL TIME H...
15               Real Nonresidential Investment REAL BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS RECOVERED RAPIDLY UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA.UNCER...
16                National Average Retail Gas Prices                     Regular Grade, As Surveyed By The AAA Motor ClubG...
17SECTION 2   DEMOCRATS ARE BETTER THAN  REPUBLICANS FOR THE ECONOMY
18DEMOCRATS ARE BETTER THAN REPUBLICANS FOR THE ECONOMYWHY YOU SHOULD VOTE DEMOCRAT     9 OF THE LAST 10 RECESSIONS TOOK P...
19                       U.S. Recessions            Kennedy                      Nixon                              Ford  ...
20       Federal Deficit/Surplus - Percentage of GDP                              Federal Deficit/Surplus - % of GDP      ...
21                     Manufacturing Employment                            Trends by Presidential TermsUP IS GOOD FOR AMER...
22            WHO GAVE US THE FEDERAL DEBT?1913 through 2008 Average Deficit Spending with a…      Democratic President in...
23              WHO GAVE US THE FEDERAL DEBT?1977 through 2007 Average Deficit Spending(omitting Bush II’s disastrous last...
24Number in Poverty and Poverty Rate: 1959 to 2010  Kennedy/Johnson   Nixon/Ford   Carter   Reagan/Bush   Clinton   Bush I...
25       Government Spending             REPUBLICANS        DEMOCRATSDEMOCRATS ARE THE RESPONSIBLE SPENDERS
26           Percentage OF MALE WORKFORCE EMPLOYED Employed                    % of Male Workforce                        ...
27      Change in U.S. Government Employees                                 CLINTON                                       ...
28                                        The U.S. spends about twice as much on per capita                               ...
29SECTION 3    economics  WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT           ECONOMICS
30  WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSECONOMICS 101:     GDP GROWTH IS LINEAR, NOT EXPONENTIAL     THE CURRENT GDP GROW...
31   WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSGDP GROWTH IS LINEAR, NOT EXPONENTIAL     FROM 1950 TO 1982 GDP GREW ON A LINEAR...
32  REAL GDP GROWS LINEAR NOT EXPONENTIAL                                                 2.4%/YR = BUBBLE                ...
33            U.S. DEBT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP                      Including gross federal debt annual                   ...
34      GDP GROWTH RATE DECLINING6.25%/YR                                                           1.8%/YR  BLUE ARROW RE...
35  WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSDEMOGRAPHICS AND UNEMPLOYMENT    HIGH CONSUMER DEMAND GENERATES MORE JOBS    CONS...
36  WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSDEMOGRAPHICS AND UNEMPLOYMENT    GEN-X WERE CREATING A WORKER VALLEY FROM 1986 TO...
37  WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSJOBS DESTRUCTION AND UNEMPLOYMENT     POST WWII THE USA WAS THE WORLD’S INDUSTRIA...
38  WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSJOBS DESTRUCTION AND UNEMPLOYMENT     THE ‘90s DECADE WAS ENRICHED BY THE GROWTH ...
39                 DEMOGRAPHICS/JOB DESTRUCTION/UNEMPLOYMENTDEMOGRAPHICS / JOB DESTRUCTION / UNEMPLOYMENT                 ...
40  BONUSWHAT ROMNEY SAID…/RED STATE SOCIALISM
41                       WHAT ROMNEY SAID…    “There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no    ma...
42                        LETS LOOK AT…THE 47% THAT VOTE FOR OBAMA    62% ARE EMPLOYED    25 % ARE RETIRED    5% ARE TEMPO...
43                        LETS LOOK AT…THE 46% THAT PAY NO INCOME TAX(ALMOST ALL PAY PAYROLL, PROPERTY AND/OR SALES TAXES)...
44                         LETS LOOK AT…THE TOP 0.2% OF THE 46% THAT PAY NO INCOME TAX     71,000 HAD INCOME $211,000 TO $...
45                      RED STATE SOCIALISMRED STATES = TAKERS       BLUE STATES = MAKERS   GO BLUE - BE MAKERS
46REPUBLICAN STATES BENEFIT FROM OBAMACARE   RED STATES = TAKERS    BLUE STATES = MAKERS                                GO...
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Why you should vote democrat presentation

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A presentation with statistics as to why you should vote Democrat instead of Republican.

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  • President Obama inherited a GDP in free-fall, declining at a 9% annual rate. In his first quarter in office he cut the decline to less than 7%, in the second quarter to less than 1% and by the third quarter had returned the economy to growth, with sustained growth since then.
  • From about 1983 to late 1996 the economy grew at a rate of close to $250B/yr. Then it went to a steeper and unsustainable slope with the dotcom and housing bubbles. In late 2008 the housing bubble burst and the GDP dropped precipitously. By mid 2009, with full impact of the recovery act, Obama’s policies had stopped the decline and returned the economy to growth. Since near mid 2009 it has been again growing at a rate of about $250B/yr, just like before the bubbles, and on a straight line from the pre-bubble growth, exactly where we would have been without the bubbles, and we don’t want another bubble. Obama’s policies have been a strong economic success.
  • With the end of August unemployment rate at 8.1%, unemployment has recovered at a faster rate then 5 of the last 6 recoveries, and matches the recovery rate of the 6th. Obama policies are achieving exceptional results. Other recoveries, especially starting mid 2003 have included government hiring. This time state and local governments have been cutting jobs. Private sector recovery under Obama is the fastest in 50 years. If President Obama’s American Jobs Act had not been blocked by the Republican Congress, unemployment would be lower by another 1 million jobs.
  • U-6 unemployment is also recovering faster than the last 2 recoveries, in spite of the State and local government job cuts. Obama inherited a 16% U-6 and is at 14.6% at the end of August. Note: the high unemployment rate is structural and is a result of 40 years of automation, outsourcing, offshoring and intellimation (replacement of knowledge jobs with the internet and artificial intelligence). See the Economics section for why the last 2 recoveries had abnormally low unemployment. If the Republicans had not blocked President Obama’s American Jobs Act U-6 would now be down to 14%.
  • In the last 30 months the economy has gained 4 million net jobs. The private sector has added 4.6 million jobs, while the public sector has lost 600,000 jobs. When President Obama took office employment was like a giant oil tanker running full speed toward the rocks. It took 4 months before he could begin slowing down the job losses. President Obama was inaugurated the 20th of January 2009, got the Recovery Act passed in late Feb., funds authorized and projects identified by end April, and was able to impact unemployment seriously starting in May of 2009. Job losses through April 2009 (at the least) are a Bush II legacy. In March 2010 President Obama had succeeded in turning around the ship of state and heading it away from the rocks. Since taking office, and discounting the Bush legacy, President Obama has added 2 million net jobs, and 2.6 million net private sector jobs. The Obama economic policies have been very effective.
  • Retail sales are growing slightly faster than the 60 year+ trend line. Obama economic policies are working.
  • Retail sales have reached a new all time high. Obama economic policies are working.
  • Exports are now above the 30 year trend line and at an all time high. Obama economic policies are working.
  • Corporate profits are doing extremely well.
  • When Republicans compare $3.90/gal gasoline prices under President Obama to “less than $2.00/gal” under Bush II, they are being disingenuous. Gasoline peaked at over $4.00/gal under President Bush, higher than the worst case under Obama. The President has zero control over world-wide supply and demand, and therefore zero control over gasoline prices. The price of gasoline fluctuates within a long term increasing price trend, and is within the normal band now. When Republicans blame President Obama and make cherry-picked comparisons they are lying.
  • In 60 years, from 1950 to 2010, 9 out of the last 10 recessions took place under Republican administrations. Why elect Republicans.
  • Since 1923 four out of five Republican administration periods have increased the deficit, one was flat, four out of five Democrat administration periods have decreased the deficit, one was flat. Republicans have generated a cumulative increase of 21% while Democrats have generated a cumulative decrease of 13%, for a net increase in deficit from 1% surplus left by Harding to a projected 7% deficit at end 2012 (See blue dot).
  • Since WWII we have lost manufacturing jobs under every, repeat – every Republican president, and have gained manufacturing jobs under every, repeat – every Democrat president. The black dot and last arrow to the right are where we might have been if the Republicans had not blocked President Obama’s American Jobs Act.
  • Since 1960 poverty has increased by a cumulative 17 million people under Republican administrations, and decreased by a cumulative 9 million people under Democrat administrations, for a net increase of 8 million people. Republican administrations have provided the net increase.
  • This chart shows who has increased government the most relative to where it was when he took office. Democrats shine, and Obama has not increased spending
  • One has to wonder why a majority of white males support the Republican party. It seems likely they are not aware of this trend.
  • On a net basis, the decline in government jobs under President Obama has now offset the gains under President Clinton. 100% of government job gains in the last 30 years have now taken place under Republican presidents. Which is the party of small government? In spite of the government job losses, President Obama’s policies are reducing unemployment faster than 5 of the last 6 recoveries.
  • With our health care running from 60% more to almost 3 times the cost in other developed countries, life expectancy in those countries is from 2 to 5 years longer than ours. All other developed countries have lower costs and better outcomes. The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) will help to close the gap.
  • Since 1950 the economy has had 2 periods of about 30 years of linear growth. The second steeper period has been driven by increasing consumer debt. From 1996 an even steeper growth developed driven by 2 unsustainable bubbles. As consumers retrench, reducing their debt burden, even the present structural growth rate of about 1.8%/yr may not be sustainable. If we now went back to the 1950-1982 low debt growth of $125b/yr the growth rate would be about 0.9%. The economy is not growing slowly and President Obama should not be blamed for slow growth. An effort to grow 3%/yr would throw us back into a bubble economy.
  • Total US debt is federal, state, local and private sector. After a long slow sustainable growth for 30 years from 1952 to 1982, debt takes off under Reagan/Bush I, slows under Clinton, then explodes under Bush II. Obama may have us back on the old 30 year trend, but due to Republican profligacy, at a much higher level.
  • Real GDP % growth rate has been declining for more than 60 years. 6% was about the level of 1952, and under 2% is normal for 2012. Linear growth means a declining %age growth rate. Obama economic policy is achieving 2% growth as we should expect. Obama supporters should be bragging about economic success, not making excuses that growth is too slow.
  • Economists perceive the anomalously low unemployment from 1996 to 2008 as normal, and therefore expect unemployment now to decline to 5% or less. They are not looking at reality. The level of unemployment that we can associate with full employment has been growing for >60 years, and is now in the order of 7.5 to 8%.
  • This data is from 2005 and may have changed a little since the 2008 election, but is strongly indicative of the real Republican position on big government. Eight of the top 10 “get more then give”, or to use Ryan’s term “taker” states voted for John McCain for president in 2008 and all 15 whose outflow of tax revenue is funding programs elsewhere in the country voted for Obama. The uninsured for health care are at much higher percentages in red states than in blue states. As Obamacare fully kicks in in 2014, the above situation will become worse. And do any of you remember Sarah Palin saying “we Alaskans collectively own the resources”? They are #3 up there. In effect Obama supporters subsidize Romney supporters. If you want to change your state from a “taker” to a “maker”, elect Democrats
  • While Republicans oppose Obamacare, do they really want to turn it down? While Romney decries those who need government help, and their convention focused on “I made it”, red states are “takers” not “makers”. They need to recognize that “We make it – together” and talk their walk.
  • Why you should vote democrat presentation

    1. 1. 1WHY YOU SHOULD: DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN
    2. 2. 2 WHY YOU SHOULD VOTE DEMOCRATSECTION 1 PRESIDENT OBAMA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES ARE WORKING FINESECTION 2 DEMOCRATS ARE BETTER THAN REPUBLICANS FOR THE ECONOMYSECTION 3 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSBONUS WHAT ROMNEY SAID…/RED STATE SOCIALISM
    3. 3. 3SECTION 1PRESIDENT OBAMA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES ARE WORKING FINE
    4. 4. 4PRESIDENT OBAMA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES ARE WORKING FINE When Mr. Romney (and other Republicans) tell you “President Obama inherited a difficult economy and he has made it worse”, they are flat out lying The real question isn’t “Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?” It’s “Are you better off than you were when President Obama took office?” In January 2009, the economy and stock market were in free-fall, your 401Ks and home values were collapsing, and you had no parachute. Today your 401Ks have fully recovered, your home value is growing again, and the economy is stronger than before the recession You are better off with President Obama than you were in January 2009!
    5. 5. 5Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Graph Fourth quarter 2008: Financial Stabilization (TARP) First quarter 2009: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 REPUBLICANS LEFT NEGATIVE GDP. PRES. OBAMA WENT POSITIVE IN JUST 2 QS
    6. 6. 6 Real GDP is doing fineGOOD GDP GROWTH: 1982-1995 BUBBLE: 1996-2008 OBAMA BACK TO GOOD GROWTH - DON’T WANT BUBBLEPRES. OBAMA’S POLICY WORKING LIKE 1982 TO 1995 - GOOD FASTER WOULD CREATE A BUBBLE - BAD
    7. 7. 7 U.S Unemployment Rate Monthly Back to 1941 Sept ‘12 UNEMPLOYMENT RECOVERY RATE UNDER PRES. OBAMA IS AS GOOD AS IT GETSFASTER THAN 5 OF LAST 6 RECOVERIES – ECONOMIC POLICY WORKING VERY WELL!
    8. 8. 8 U-6 Unemployment January, 2012 = 15.1% October, 2009 February, 2012 = 14.9% 17.2% March, 2012 = 14.5% April, 2012 = 14.5% May, 2012 = 14.8% January, 1994 June, 2012 = 14.9% April, 2012 11.8% 14.5% September, 2003 10.4% December, 2006 7.9% October, 2000 6.8%PRES OBAMA’S U6 UNEMPLOYMENT RECOVERY RATE IS AS GOOD AS LAST TWO!
    9. 9. 9 Change in Payroll Jobs per Month (ex-Census) Bush’s LegacyJANUARY-INAUGURATED FEBRUARY-RECOVERY ACT MARCH-IDENTIFY JOBS APRIL-FUND AND START JOBS PRES. OBAMA HAS ADDED 2M NET JOBS IN JUST THREE AND A HALF YEARS IN OFFICE
    10. 10. 10 Private sector job creation Source: http://www.classwarfareexists.com/chart-private-sector-job-creation-bush-v-obama/#axzz265xbmEuCExcluding each one’s first year in office (treating Bush’s early job losses as a Clinton legacy, and Obama’s early job losses as a Bush legacy), PresidentObama has added more than twice as many private sector jobs in two and a half years than President Bush did in 7 years.
    11. 11. 11Real Retail Sales Cumulative Growth Since 1959RETAIL SALES GROWING FASTER THAN THE 60 YEAR TREND - OBAMANOMICS WORKING!
    12. 12. 12 Retail Sales (billions $)Mike Norman Economics RETAIL SALES ABOVE PRE-RECESSION LEVEL - OBAMA ECONOMY WORKING
    13. 13. 13 Real Exports of Goods & ServicesEXPORTS ABOVE TREND AND PRE-RECESSION LEVEL - OBAMA ECONOMY WORKING
    14. 14. 14 Corporate Profits (billions $)Mike Norman Economics CORPORATE PROFITS AT ALL TIME HIGH - OBAMA ECONOMY WORKING
    15. 15. 15 Real Nonresidential Investment REAL BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS RECOVERED RAPIDLY UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA.UNCERTAINTY IS NOT HOLDING BACKRECOVERED RAPIDLY UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA. REAL BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS INVESTMENT. REPUBLICAN CLAIMS ARE WRONG UNCERTAINTY IS NOT HOLDING BACK INVESTMENT. REPUBLICAN CLAIMS ARE WRONG
    16. 16. 16 National Average Retail Gas Prices Regular Grade, As Surveyed By The AAA Motor ClubGAS PRICES SPIKED ABOVE $4.00/GAL UNDER PRES. BUSH. NOW IN NORMAL RANGE UNDER PRES. OBAMA. REPUBLICANS’ COMPARISON TO SHORT DOWN-SPIKE IN 2009 IS CHERRY-PICKING
    17. 17. 17SECTION 2 DEMOCRATS ARE BETTER THAN REPUBLICANS FOR THE ECONOMY
    18. 18. 18DEMOCRATS ARE BETTER THAN REPUBLICANS FOR THE ECONOMYWHY YOU SHOULD VOTE DEMOCRAT 9 OF THE LAST 10 RECESSIONS TOOK PLACE UNDER REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTS REPUBLICANS INCREASE THE DEFICIT, DEMOCRATS REDUCE THE DEFICIT REPUBLICANS LOSE MANUFACTURING JOBS, DEMOCRATS GAIN MANUFACTURING JOBS REPUBLICANS GIVE YOU BIGGER, LESS PRODUCTIVE GOVERNMENT REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATIONS OUTSPEND DEMOCRATS DRAMATICALLY REPUBLICANS GIVE US MORE POVERTY THAN DEMOCRATS DO REPUBLICANS REDUCE MALE EMPLOYMENT DEMOCRATS RESPONSIBLE REPUBLICANS IRRESPONSIBLE
    19. 19. 19 U.S. Recessions Kennedy Nixon Ford Bush Eisenhower Bush II Reagan60 YEARS - 9 OF LAST 10 RECESSIONS UNDER REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTS !!
    20. 20. 20 Federal Deficit/Surplus - Percentage of GDP Federal Deficit/Surplus - % of GDP Kenned/ Kennedy/ Carter CarterCoolidge/Coolidge/ Johnson Johnson HooverHoover Roosevelt/Truman Roosevelt/Truman Eisenhower Eisenhower Nixon/F Nixon/ Reagan/Bush Reagan/Bush I Clinton Clinton BushII Bush II Obama Obama ord FordSource: White House Office of Management and Budget UP ARROW IS GOOD DOWN ARROW IS BAD UP ARROW IS GOOD DOWN ARROW IS BAD - REPUBLICANS INCREASE DEFICIT
    21. 21. 21 Manufacturing Employment Trends by Presidential TermsUP IS GOOD FOR AMERICA DOWN IS BAD FOR AMERICA DEMOCRATS ARE GOOD FOR AMERICA EVERY REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATION SINCE WWII DESTROYED MANUFACTURING JOBS!!
    22. 22. 22 WHO GAVE US THE FEDERAL DEBT?1913 through 2008 Average Deficit Spending with a… Democratic President in Office (48 years): $75.7 billion average per year Republican President in Office (48 years): $176.4 billion average per year Or to avoid any back-end weighting effect let’s look at:1977 through 2000 Average Deficit Spending with a… Democratic President in Office (12 years): $148.9 billion average per year Republican President in Office (12 years): $265.7 billion average per year Why would you elect Republicans?
    23. 23. 23 WHO GAVE US THE FEDERAL DEBT?1977 through 2007 Average Deficit Spending(omitting Bush II’s disastrous last year to be fair) with a… Democratic President in Office (12 years): $44.4 billion average per year Republican President in Office (19 years): $310.6 billion average per year Democrat House/Senate (14 years): $167.6 billion average per year Republican House/Senate (10 years): $297.3 billion average per year Split House/Senate (7 years): $203.7 billion per year Why would you elect Republicans?
    24. 24. 24Number in Poverty and Poverty Rate: 1959 to 2010 Kennedy/Johnson Nixon/Ford Carter Reagan/Bush Clinton Bush II Obama POVERTY INCREASED BY 17 MILLION UNDER REPUBLICANS AND DECREASED BY 9 MILLION UNDER DEMOCRATS
    25. 25. 25 Government Spending REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATSDEMOCRATS ARE THE RESPONSIBLE SPENDERS
    26. 26. 26 Percentage OF MALE WORKFORCE EMPLOYED Employed % of Male Workforce eeememployedEMPLOYED Truman Eisenhower Kennedy/John Nixon/Ford Carter Kennedy/Joh Reagan/Bush Clinton Bush II Truman Eisenhower nson son Nixon/Ford Carter Reagan/Bush Clinton Bush II Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) Source www.flickr.com 60 YEARS % OF MALE WORK FORCE EMPLOYED DECLINES 20 POINTS 60 YEARS - MALE WORKFORCE EMPLOYED–DECLINES 20 POINTS NET FLAT UNDER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTS 25 YEARS NET FLAT UNDER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTS - 25 YEARS20 CUMULATIVE POINTS DOWN UNDER REPUBLICAN – 36 YEARS 20%AGE POINTS DOWN UNDER REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTS PRESIDENTS - 36 YEARS
    27. 27. 27 Change in U.S. Government Employees CLINTON CLINTON-OBAMA OBAMA NET GOVERNMENT JOBS ADDED UNDER CLINTON/OBAMA NEAR ZERO.ALMOST 100% OF NEW GOVERNMENT JOBS SINCE 1980 ADDED UNDER REPUBLICANS!!
    28. 28. 28 The U.S. spends about twice as much on per capita health care costs as other developed countries. 8,000 $7,538 7,000 Per Capita Health Care Costs 6,000 5,000 $4,627 U .S. Dollars $4,079 $3,737 $3,696 4,000 $3,129 $3,353 $2,870 $3,470 $2,729 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 US UK Italy France Sweden Canada *Japan Germany Switzerland *AustraliaSOURCE: Data from OECD Health Data 2010, October 2010. Compiled by PGPF.NOTE: Per capita health expenditures in 2008, unless otherwise noted. Comparison uses Purchasing Power Parity, which adjusts exchange rates toassume identical price of goods in different countries.*Japan and Australia data from 2007.©2011 Peter G. Peterson FoundationPGPF.ORG LIFE EXPECTANCY LONGER IN ALL THE OTHER COUNTRIES - USA COSTS UP, RESULTS DOWN WHY WE NEED THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT
    29. 29. 29SECTION 3 economics WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICS
    30. 30. 30 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSECONOMICS 101: GDP GROWTH IS LINEAR, NOT EXPONENTIAL THE CURRENT GDP GROWTH RATE IS NORMAL, NOT TOO SLOW LOW UNEMPLOYMENT FROM 1995 TO 2008 WAS ANOMALOUS THE CURRENT HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT IS STRUCTURAL, NOT OBAMA’S FAILING
    31. 31. 31 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSGDP GROWTH IS LINEAR, NOT EXPONENTIAL FROM 1950 TO 1982 GDP GREW ON A LINEAR TREND OF $125 BILLION PER YEAR (B/YR) IN 1982 THE “GARN-ST. GERMAIN ACT” DEREGULATED THRIFTS MAKING CREDIT MORE AVAILABLE IN 1982 CONSUMERS STARTED INCREASED BORROWING TO FINANCE CONSUMPTION IN 1982 GDP STARTED GROWING AT A FASTER LINEAR RATE OF $235 B/YR GDP ACCELERATED AGAIN ABOUT 1996 WITH THE DOT-COM BUBBLE TO $333 B/YR DEBT AS % OF GDP STARTED GROWING AT A GREATLY ACCELERATED RATE DEBT AS % OF GDP ACCELERATED FURTHER AS CREDIT BECAME MORE AVAILABLE IN 1999 THE GRAMM-LEACH-BLILEY ACT WAS PASSED REPEALING GLASS-STEAGALL IN 2003 THE FED DROPPED INTEREST RATES AND THE HOUSING BUBBLE WENT IN TO HIGH GEAR SINCE THE RECESSION BOTTOMED GDP IS AGAIN GROWING AT A LINEAR TREND OF $235 B/YR, EXACTLY IN LINE WITH THE 1982 TO 1996 GROWTH IN 1950 125 B/YR WAS 6.25% IN 1982 235 B/YR WAS 3.9% IN 2010 235 B/YR WAS 1.8% GDP DOES NOT GROW EXPONENTIALLY!!
    32. 32. 32 REAL GDP GROWS LINEAR NOT EXPONENTIAL 2.4%/YR = BUBBLE ECONOMY 1.8%/YR 3.9%/YR 6.25%/YR2 LONG PERIODS SUSTAINED LINEAR GROWTH PLUS ONE BUBBLE - %/YR GROWTH STEADILY DECLINING
    33. 33. 33 U.S. DEBT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP Including gross federal debt annual Reagan/Bush Clinton Bush II Obama DEBT DROVE THE FASTER GROWTH AFTER 1982DEMOCRATS - RESPONSIBLE DEBT GROWTH REPUBLICANS - IRRESPONSIBLE DEBT GROWTH
    34. 34. 34 GDP GROWTH RATE DECLINING6.25%/YR 1.8%/YR BLUE ARROW REFLECTS INFLATION - GROWING THEN DECLINING REAL % GROWTH RATE STEADILY DECLINING FOR 60+ YEARS GDP GROWTH IS LINEAR - NOT EXPONENTIAL!
    35. 35. 35 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSDEMOGRAPHICS AND UNEMPLOYMENT HIGH CONSUMER DEMAND GENERATES MORE JOBS CONSUMERS’ PEAK SPENDING YEARS ARE FROM AGE 44 TO 50 THE “BOOMER” GENERATION (1946-1964) WAS A LARGE COHORT - ABOUT 80 MILLION BIRTHS BOOMERS WERE BIG SPENDERS BOOMERS’ PEAK SPENDING YEARS WERE 1994 TO 2010 THE “GEN-X” GENERATION (1965-1983?) WAS A SMALL COHORT - ABOUT 50 MILLION BIRTHS
    36. 36. 36 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSDEMOGRAPHICS AND UNEMPLOYMENT GEN-X WERE CREATING A WORKER VALLEY FROM 1986 TO 2007 THE PERIOD FROM 1994 THROUGH 2007 WAS PEAK DEMAND COMBINED WITH WORKERVALLEY GIVING LOW UNEMPLOYMENT THE START OF THE DOTCOM BUBBLE TO THE FINAL COLLAPSE OF THE HOUSING BUBBLE WAS 1995 THROUGH MID 2008 THE TWO BUBBLES COINCIDED WITH THE DEMOGRAPHIC COINCIDENCE TO GIVE ANOMALOUSLY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT NOW WE HAVE MILLENIALS, A LARGE COHORT, ENTERING THE WORK FORCE AS GEN-X, LOW SPENDERS, ENTER THEIR PEAK SPENDING YEARS WE WILL HAVE LOW DEMAND AND HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT FOR MANY YEARS TO COME.
    37. 37. 37 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSJOBS DESTRUCTION AND UNEMPLOYMENT POST WWII THE USA WAS THE WORLD’S INDUSTRIAL ENGINE FOR ABOUT 20 YEARS IN THE LATE 1960s FOREIGN COMPETITION STARTED GROWING ALSO IN THE LATE 1960s AMERICAN COMPANIES STARTED SETTING UP OFFSHORE TO SERVE OVERSEAS MARKETS DURING THE NEXT 20+ YEARS WE HAD INCREASING OUTSOURCING AND AUTOMATION OF BLUECOLLAR JOBS BY THE LATE 1980s WE STARTED AUTOMATING CLERICAL JOBS – EG: ATMs IN THE LATE 1990s THE INTERNET ENABLED MASS JOB OFFSHORING NOW COMPUTERS PLUS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (INTELLIMATION) ARE ENABLING ADVANCED ROBOTICS
    38. 38. 38 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICSJOBS DESTRUCTION AND UNEMPLOYMENT THE ‘90s DECADE WAS ENRICHED BY THE GROWTH OF THE “KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY” INTELLIMATION IS NOW STARTING TO REPLACE KNOWLEDGE JOBS HOUSEHOLD INCOME IS DECLINING AS BETTER AND BETTER PAYING JOBS ARE BEING DESTROYED WE HAVE HAVE HAD GROWING UNEMPLOYMENT FOR OVER 40 YEARS 7.5% TO 8% UNEMPLOYMENT IS NOW NORMAL, IE-STRUCTURAL, NOT HIGH DON’T BLAME PRESIDENT OBAMA
    39. 39. 39 DEMOGRAPHICS/JOB DESTRUCTION/UNEMPLOYMENTDEMOGRAPHICS / JOB DESTRUCTION / UNEMPLOYMENT False False Attempted Attempted Anomalous Anomalous trend line trend line minimum minimum unemployment unemployment ANOMALOUSLY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT 1995-2008 MISTAKENLY PERCEIVED AS NORMAL UNEMPLOYMENT IS WITHIN NORMAL RANGE UNEMPLOYMENT IS WITHIN NORMAL RANGE NOW, INCREASED DEMAND INCREASES AUTOMATED/IMPORTED PRODUCTION, NOT JOBS NOW, INTELLIMATION DESTROYING JOBS - REMAINING JOBS LOWER PAID EXTRAORDINARY GOVERNMENT MEASURES NEEDED TO LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT - OPPOSED BY REPUBLICANS !!
    40. 40. 40 BONUSWHAT ROMNEY SAID…/RED STATE SOCIALISM
    41. 41. 41 WHAT ROMNEY SAID… “There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it -- that thats an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what... These are people who pay no income tax...”WHAT ROMNEY MEANT? TRUE - 46% OF HOUSEHOLDS PAY NO FEDERAL INCOME TAX TRUE - 47% OF VOTERS SUPPORT OBAMATHE PROBLEM THESE AREN’T THE SAME 47%! ROMNEY JUST SAYS WHATEVER OCCURS TO HIM WITH NO KNOWLEDGE OF THE FACTS BEHIND WHAT HE SAYS IS THIS THE KIND OF PRESIDENT WE WANT?
    42. 42. 42 LETS LOOK AT…THE 47% THAT VOTE FOR OBAMA 62% ARE EMPLOYED 25 % ARE RETIRED 5% ARE TEMPORARILY UNEMPLOYED 56% HAVE INCOME ABOVE THE US MEDIAN 68% EARN BETWEEN $30,000 AND 100,000 PER YEAR 43% HAVE COLLEGE DEGREES ANOTHER 20% HAVE HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMAS THEY ARE ABOVE AVERAGE IN EDUCATION AND EARNINGS NOT MUCH LIKE VICTIMS WHO FEEL ENTITLED - ARE THEY ROMNEY LIES!
    43. 43. 43 LETS LOOK AT…THE 46% THAT PAY NO INCOME TAX(ALMOST ALL PAY PAYROLL, PROPERTY AND/OR SALES TAXES) 50% ARE “WORKING POOR” - INCOME TOO LOW FOR TAXES • ONLY 40% VOTED • 30% OF THEM VOTED FOR McCAIN 50% HAVE TAXABLE INCOME WITH EXEMPTIONS • 44% OF THEM HAVE ELDERLY EXEMPTIONS - 70% OF THEM VOTED - OF WHICH 53% VOTED FOR McCAIN • 30% ARE LOW INCOME WITH CHILD EXEMPTIONS • 6% ARE WORKING YOUNG WITH EDUCATION CREDITS • ALMOST 20% ARE UNEMPLOYED - NOT BY CHOICE NOT MUCH LIKE OBAMA GOVERNMENT DEPENDENTS - ARE THEY ROMNEY LIES!
    44. 44. 44 LETS LOOK AT…THE TOP 0.2% OF THE 46% THAT PAY NO INCOME TAX 71,000 HAD INCOME $211,000 TO $533,OOO 24,000 HAD INCOME $533,000 TO $2,200,000 3,000 HAD INCOME > $2,200,000 AND ROMNEY CONCEALS SEVERAL YEARS OF HIS TAX RETURNS IS HE ONE OF THE 46%
    45. 45. 45 RED STATE SOCIALISMRED STATES = TAKERS BLUE STATES = MAKERS GO BLUE - BE MAKERS
    46. 46. 46REPUBLICAN STATES BENEFIT FROM OBAMACARE RED STATES = TAKERS BLUE STATES = MAKERS GO BLUE
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