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Elections: On the Ground & In the Air
 

Elections: On the Ground & In the Air

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  • Understanding IntellDefinition & PurposeApplicationProcess / CycleIntell FailuresMethodologies of Managing UncertaintyDivinationAlternative HistoryPolitical Risk AssessmentForecasting Scenario PlanningAnimalsTemporal Vision
  • Fact: event will happenData: event has happened X number of timesInfo: What does that event mean – how are they related?Intell: What will be done? Understand implications and impact
  • GovernmentElectoral CommissionI/NGOs
  • GovernmentElectoral CommissionI/NGOs
  • GovernmentElectoral CommissionI/NGOs
  • Near Term Future - Up to one year from nowShort Term Future - One - five years from nowMid-Term Future - Five - twenty years from nowLong Range Future - Twenty - fifty years from nowFar Future - fifty plus years from now
  • Gov’tConfis:Sudden Expropriation, Creeping Expropriation, NationalizationPolUncert: Domestic- Revolution, Civil War, Civil Unrest (riots, strikes, political rallies), Political Terrorism (national [rebellion], sub-national [insurrection],non-state [insurgency]),Targeted Attacks (sabotage, roadblocks, kidnapping of foreigners, critical infrastructure, cyberattacks)External – Armed Major Conflict, Low-Intensity/Minor Conflict, Non-violent Sanctions, Trade War, Refugee/Humanitarian Crisis, CyberattacksGov Chall:Institutions, Transition of Authority (elections, military coup, assassination, legitimacy), Rule of Law & CorruptionDiscrimReg: Adverse Tax changes, Government frustration/repudiation of contracts, partiality, investment restrictionsOper Restrict: Labor laws, Due diligence for local businesses and individuals, Bureaucratic ObstaclesSocDynam: Dom complexity, int’l boycott, CSR
  • T: 1/9P: Create categories of chrono zonesI: Difference b/w watershed and milestoneA: Be flexible
  • T: 1/21P: Focus on leadership’s big momentsI: Oppressed as civil society, opportunity for mainstream, consolidates after Jan25A: longview – what has driven previous inflection points?
  • T: 2/11P: Show 4 time windows, notable eventsI: 1) boycott, losing influence, US pushing? 2) stronger than ElBara, Clinton – MB involved 3) uncertainty abtperf in elections, + on econ policies 4) blocks protests, sack gov’t, peace treaty w/IsraelA: Focus on what is relevant – sentiment vs. momentum
  • T: 2/11P: Show 4 time windows, notable eventsI: 1) boycott, losing influence, US pushing? 2) stronger than ElBara, Clinton – MB involved 3) uncertainty abtperf in elections, + on econ policies 4) blocks protests, sack gov’t, peace treaty w/IsraelA: Focus on what is relevant – sentiment vs. momentum
  • http://www.arabist.net/blog/2011/11/13/mapping-egypts-political-parties.html
  • T: 1/25P: How to quickly asses sources? Source mappingI: facilitate evaluation of authority, objectivity, coverage, and currencyA: Also can search just for prediction events https://www.recordedfuture.com/rf/s/5XzSUa
  • T: 2/24P: investigate last two years of peaks around sentiment – when did MB receive pos/neg attention?I: #Jan25 not a big moment; lots of mixed sentiment around entrance into parl election – political, econ implications of growing MB influenceA: again, focus on relevant metrics
  • T: 1/27P: Establish forward-look eventsI: Not all key dates are momentous & vice versa (e.g. holidays)A: Look for driving factors of shift in momentum
  • Unstructured text has analytic & predictive power.Time and temporal reasoning is central.
  • future is a repetition of the paststaring in rearviewfuture is extrapolation of presentclimb ladder leaning against wrong wallfuture will always be the final frontiernobody is wrong about the future

Elections: On the Ground & In the Air Elections: On the Ground & In the Air Presentation Transcript

  • ELECTIONS ON THE GROUND AND IN THE AIR#SSLBC2012 Comparing Perches and Perspectives
  • What’s Up?2
  • Why am I here?3  Everyone else was busy  Excuse to visit campus  Wouldn’t have finished my thesis if it weren’t for Ellen  Follow and have worked in political risk  Helped managed election observation mission in Liberia, November 2011  Currently, working at startup that uses predictive analysis and temporal analytics
  • Fields of Reference4 Multiparty Network Political Risk Negotiation Analysis Social Data Media Visualization Analytics
  • Outline5 1. Definitions, Perspectives, and Watching 2. Futures & Forecasting Methodologies 3. Case Study: Egypt 4. Online Tools: Whither Twitter? 5. Temporal Vision
  • 1. Definitions, Perspectives,& Watching WHEN I USE A WORD IT MEANS JUST WHAT I CHOOSE IT TO MEAN — NEITHER MORE NOR LESS. Humpty Dumpty in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass
  • Four Ways to Manage Info7 Cultivate Communica Information Collect te Curate
  • Definitions8  Fact: evidence used in report  Opinion: biased perspective  Data: quantity, number, sum  Information: relationships of facts  Intelligence: organized information
  • Perspective, Parsed9 Point of Perch Period Permanence View On the Short Passage Static or ground dynamic Medium On the hill Phased Long Un/restricted In the air Frequent Far
  • Engaging Elections10 Campaigning Polling Monitoring Forecasting Analyzing
  • Primary Actors & Key11 Stakeholders Voters Observers Electoral Parties Commission Coalitions Influencers
  • Central to Elections12 Campaigns Voters Parties Candidates Coalitions Supporters Electoral Interest Commission Groups Influencers Media Observers Civil Society
  • Characteristics and Categories13 Large, Diverse Voters Dynamic, Polarized Interest Groups Coalitions Parties Discrete, Limited Media Candidates Electoral Commission Observers Civil Society Political Base
  • 2. Forecasting Methodologies IT IS HARD TO MAKE PREDICTIONS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE FUTURE. Yogi Berra
  • Phillip K. Dick15
  • Seven Attitudes Towards Future16  Providential: what will be will be  Conventional: tomorrow will be much like today  Pessimism: decline from past ‘Golden Age’  Discontinuity: the future will be nothing like the present  Optimism: faith in progress / technology cures all  Unknowable: futile to attempt to go beyond the present  Futurist: tempered optimism / the future is rich with possibility resulting from human planning and action Source Prof. Howard F. DidsburyJr
  • Types of Political Risk17 Governmental Political Governance Confiscation Uncertainty Challenges Discriminatory Operating Social Regulation Restrictions Dynamics
  • How to Make & Falsify18 Predictions Probability Time Range Impact
  • 3. Case Study: Egypt IF A MAN WILL BEGIN WITH CERTAINTIES, HE SHALL END IN DOUBTS; BUT IF HE WILL BE CONTENT TO BEGIN WITH DOUBTS HE SHALL END IN CERTAINTIES. Francis Bacon
  • Time Window AnalysisHistory WatershedsMilestones #Jan25 Parliamentary Elections Past 5 3 Months 1 Month Up to Run-up Years prior following Today 20
  • Profile: Historic Milestones Egyptian Gov’t As Opposition President MB Threatens Ongoing to Mubarak, Obama’s Disruption of Arrests of MB MB Backed Cairo Speech Elections Members by ElBaradei Past 5 3 Months 1 Month Up to Run-up Years prior following Today 21
  • Watersheds pre-Jan25 3 Months 1 Month Past 5 Up to prior to following Run-up Years Today #Jan25 #Jan25
  • Watersheds post-Jan25 3 Months 1 Month Past 5 Up to prior to following Run-up Years Today #Jan25 #Jan25
  • Evolution: Political Landscape Source: Arabist.net 24
  • Change in FJP CompositionCreation of FJP & Before After Elections Elections 25
  • When to WatchMid-April: Candidacy Registration Period Mid to Late June: anticipated elections 26
  • Time-Textured January 2012 Forecast – 6 Weeks Prior Actual – 4 Weeks During Revised – 6 Weeks After 27
  • What and How to WatchPower Transitional Internal ForeignSharing Justice Dynamics RelationsNegotiations Amnesty for Brotherhood Trial of NGOwith Salafists generals Youth workers Approval or Drafting of Mubarak Coordination delay of IMF constitution trial/verdict with FJP loan East Asian Legislation foreign passed investment 28
  • 4. Online Tools: Whither Twitter? ONCE WE GET OUT OF THE 80S, THE 90S ARE GONNA MAKE THE 60S LOOK LIKE THE 50S. Dennis Hopper in Flashback
  • Seismic Shift in Intelligence30 Temporal Indexing of Web Enables Novel Intelligence
  • Text Is Loaded with Temporal Signals31 “North Korea apparently began pursuing a uranium enrichment Drought and malnutrition hinder next spring’s program in 1996 at the latest” expansion plans in Kabul... ...In June, officials said the network encryption was operational “2012 is the year when China will export “...opposition organizers more chemicals according to this source” plan to meet on Thursday to protest...” “ Dr Sarkar says the new facility will be operational by March 2014...” Unstructured text has analytic & predictive power.
  • Using Big Data for Prediction32 Opportunities Challenges
  • New Tools: Electionista33  web app for monitoring elections over Twitter across 110 different countries in 58 languages  Tweets are categorized geographically and cached so that users can scroll back
  • New Tools: WaPo Modifiable Model34 Uses 3 variables:  % change in GDP per capita from Q1 to Q3  Average Approval in June, according to Gallup  1 incumbent party candidate is sitting president, 0 if not SOURCES: Seth Hill, postdoctoral associate at Yale University; John Sides, associate professor at George Washington University; Lynn Vavreck, associate professor at UCLA; GRAPHIC: Jeremy Bowers, Emily Chow and Ezra Klein - The Washington Post.
  • New Tools: Google Portal35
  • New Tools: Google Portal36
  • New Tools: Yahoo Clues37  How people search  Find most popular search terms  Compare trends between search terms
  • New Tools: RF & TemporalAnalysis Search through time Sentiment analysisTemporal network analysis Temporal source scoring 38
  • Further Research for Twitter39 Data  Sentiment analysis of political tweets  Automatic detection of propaganda and disinformation  Automatic detection of sock puppets  Credibility checking  Basic research on Twitter demographics and automatic profiling of users with regards to demographic attributes  Basic research on user participation and self- selection bias
  • 5. Temporal Vision DISCOVERY CONSISTS OF SEEING WHAT EVERYBODY HAS SEEN AND THINKING WHAT NOBODY HAS THOUGHT. Albert Szent-Gyorgyi
  • Temporal Vision41 Hindsight Insight Foresight • Reflect & Learn • Observe & Respond • Predict & Prepare • Staring in Rear-View • Climb Ladder • Nobody is Wrong Mirror Against Wrong Wall About Future
  • Insight from Big Data42  Watch (signal)  Have expectations about what is being watched (shift)  Know how is obscured (blindspot)  Identify out-of-the-ordinary happenings (outlier)  Conceive of fast-moving, far-reaching events (flashpoints)  Be able to correlate them with other interesting observations (pattern)
  • Thank You!43 E: munish@recordedfuture.com T: @whypurifly @politicalrisk L: linkd.in/munish
  • NOBODY IS WRONGABOUT THE FUTURE ANDEVERYBODY IS WRONGABOUT THE PAST.Munish Puri