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Commodities And Commodity Investing


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  • 1. Commodities and Commodity Investing
    David O’Shea
    Investment Director
  • 2. Agenda
    Commodities & Commodity Markets
    Origins & History
    Commodities in a Portfolio
    Current Trends
    Case Study : Oil Market
    Managing Your Portfolio & Product Showcase
  • 3. How did you start your day?(through the eyes of a commodity trader)
    It was a little cold so you decided to turn on the heating and made a mental note to order some more heating oil for the winter months (Oil : International Identifier - CLA). You sat down at your new IKEA table & chair set (Lumber: LBA) and poured some milk (Milk : DAU9) on your cornflakes (Wheat Future: W A). You had a glass of Orange Juice
    (Florida Orange Juice Future: JO). You
    were hungry so decided to have some
    bacon (Pork Bellies: PBA).Finally you
    had a strong cup of coffee (Arabica
    Coffee : KCA).to get yourself set for the day.
  • 4. What are Commodities and what is the Commodity Market
    Defining Commodities:
    A good for which there is demand but it is supplied without difference by producers. The word commodity refers to the fact that the product is generic.
    But commodities while generic do not all have the same characteristics.
    Most pertinent is the issue of storage.
  • 5. Commodity Trading through History
    Glut of commodities at market time – buyers market (producers)
    Logistics became an issue
    Forward contracts were introduced to allow buyers and sellers to match their differing needs
    Regulation - because it is a question of trust.
    Economies (and funding for military armies) grow through trade so it was in the rulers interest that it was fostered.
    • Markets have existed anywhere there has been a desire to trade
    • 6. As trade developed and led to specialisation there was a need for structure around how markets were regulated
    • 7. In ancient Greece and Rome markets were held on preordained days
    • 8. Forward Trading was written into Japanese law in 1730
  • Understanding Commodities
    Commodities are goods that we use in daily life.
    Traditionally Commodities have lagged other indicators.
    Basic laws of Supply and Demand are the overriding factors in driving the market
    Very responsive to how economies are performing and global demand is developing
  • 9. The Commodity Market
    Open, regulated, transparent
    Large range of quoted commodities and exchanges
    Innovation continues as a good pace –example: Carbon Emissions Market.
    Generic Product - (so efficiencies in production are usually quickly taken on throughout the market)
    Non Production traders bring liquidity and efficiency and limit the existence of excessive profits
  • 10. Commodities in a Portfolio
    Lower volatility for similar returns to equities
    Significant universe of exposures – each commodity is unique and has different fundamentals driving its price
    Traditionally Commodity Prices have been negatively correlated to other asset classes
  • 11. Commodities – the black sheep of the investment markets
    Commodities should be a part of your portfolio
  • 12. Current Trends in Commodities
    Significant growth in Commodity investing
    Correlation since the credit crunch last year is now running at all time highs.
    Commodities are beginning to become more forward looking
    More market participants and more sophisticated analysis
    Are Commodities the new Equity?
  • 13. Case Study : The Oil Market
    • The Oil market is dominated by an Oil Cartel - OPEC. A small number of produces can affect supply to set prices.
    • 14. Demand is unlikely to waver significantly unless renewable energy can make huge leaps forward
    • 15. Consumption patterns unlikely to change and supply likely to remain constrained
  • What drives the Oil Market?
    McKinsey Report (June 2009) – GDP growth the most important factor affecting the short term growth of oil and energy. Longer term, factors such as efficient usage and increased productivity can have a significant impact.
  • 16. Oil Supply & Demand
    Supply likely to remain an issue:
    International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a fall of 2.6m b/d. Last year we had a fall of 200,000 b/d. The first time since the 1980’s that we’ve had 2 consecutive years of contraction. OPEC has announced 3 separate price cuts since Sept to steady price falls.
    Much of the worlds easy oil has already been extracted. New discoveries tend to be smaller than previously. Merrill Lynch estimate that in order to maintain current output firms must find the equivalent of Saudi Arabia reserves every 2 years.
    Renewable energy is still not able to take up the slack
    Many of the largest reserves are in the hands of despots and dictators
    IEA forecast a cut of up to 20% in overall investment in the industry in 2009.
  • 17. Oil Supply & Demand
    • Demand to remain solid:
    • 18. World Energy consumption is forecast to increase steadily according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Significantly most of this comes from non-OECD countries.
    • 19. Demand for substitutes such as renewable energy to remain muted
    • 20. Oil prices at long term average
    • 21. Global growth to pick up albeit slowly in 2010
    • 22. China re-emerging on a strong growth path
    Oil Demand Forecast 2006-2030
  • 23. How will the current Crisis affected Oil Demand?
    Deep Recession Projection
    Pre-Crisis Projection
  • 24. Why do we think Oil is not falling in the short term?
    • Consumption likely to recover in 2010
    • 25. China remerging on a solid growth path (Chinese authorities have erred on the side of growth and inflation)
    • 26. Recent crisis already priced in to current predictions – Oil prices are back to their long term average
    • 27. OPEC members unlikely to allow Oil revisit last years lows
    Real price of Crude Oil 1947-2008
  • 28. Conclusions
    Commodities markets can add diversification while reducing risks
    Operating on different but understandable fundamentals - a connection with real economy
    Commodities markets are not a generic asset class but are multi-layered and offer investors different opportunities
    Commodities represent an asset class which investors should take seriously and include in their portfolios
    Commodities as the new equities?
  • 29. Managing Your Portfolio
    Markets are likely to be more volatile in the years ahead and investors will need to dedicate more time to their investment portfolios or hire professional risk managers
    Expect the return of a more macro data focus and for asset prices to respond accordingly
    4 Pillars of Investing
  • 30. Product Showcase – Oil Autocallable