Design | Intuition at Design | IntuitionI would love to see an overlay of 1870-1950 to this chart to see if the present day trend is similar to the 1920s. is there a report with that sort of comparison somewhere?1 year ago
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MONICA BEATRIZ CAMPI, Professor After read the last slideshares about figures, I connect two ideas, with this presentation, You could take the public works (about the bridges which needs maintenance, and new jobs) as a source of new jobs. Meanwhile you invest in SME's and micro-enterprises.1 year ago
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David Sugar, Chief Facilitator at GNU Telephony @AmbassadorHope The credit issue I do consider essential and has been a problem for a long time. When I helped organize a silicon valley startup, OST, we had a business model that tended to generate a high accounts receivable, eventually growing to the 50K+ range each month, which is rather large for a small enterprise.
Each year we were rather profitable, but we could not secure financing for that ar. Banks were only interested if we wanted to borrow 1 to 10 million, not say 100K. We ended up carrying it on credit cards each year because there was no other option available, and this of course was not very sustainable. So in 2005 we finally had to close, and 8 people became unemployed, not because the market failed for us, or our products were wrong, or that we could not grow, but simply because we could not secure credit to meet continuing business needs.
Credit though is only one issue. Unlike my generation, who had looked at places as Silicon valley as the future and 'the place to be', when I speak with younger people today, they speak with the same excitement and wistfulness about Taipei Towers. Those working now try to get themselves there any way they can. That is where many of the new generation of the best and brightest now see the future. And business credit is just one part of the problem.
A lack of industrial policy, and a political culture that now clearly favors the law of rule over the rule of law also drives what is clearly becoming a growing exodus. I am quite familiar with this as well. While I have found no support nor opportunity for developing anything original in your United States in almost a decade now, some of my ideas, including how to change delivery of emergency medical services, have already been openly embraced and adopted by both national governments and commercial entities elsewhere. Your United States is truly destroying it's future to protect present entrenched interests, and I think it will take much more than a simple executive order to fix that.1 year ago
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Ambassador Hope, G-192 Director General, Presidential Advisor at G-192SBA used to work well when the entrepreneur needed the capital to start and the Government gave the guarentee. This triangle served the needs of the entrepreneurs, created cash flow, jobs and profit. Now the banks want a guarentee from the entrepreneur AND the government in order to lend! the entrepreneurs have knowledge, energy and a dream not portfolios of real estate or gold stashed away. So the banks by expecting 200% cover block the flow of capital to the knowledge and everyone looses. I want President Obama to sign an Executive Order insisting that the banks fulfil their fiducary responsibility to the Small Business Community or get out of the way and let someone who loves and understands small businesses to fulfill this role in a simple, fast and efficient way. Social enterprises and micro-enterprises can put millions of people back to work and serving the needs of their community and country!1 year ago
David Sugar, Chief Facilitator at GNU TelephonyOn the reservations in your United States per capita income can be as low as $4,000 ANNUALLY and more than 97% of the population is already living below the poverty line. So what you call a recession is hardly even noticed from the already very miserable conditions our peoples already experience directly and daily. However I will comment directly on Ambassador's comments because they are the first intelligent and actually useful things I have heard said by anyone in your United States in over a decade.
The current conditions in your country create extreme dis-incentive for new capital and new business formation in many ways. Some are through entirely artificial blockades in market participation that have been created by your existing corporations to protect existing concentrations of wealth against competition and changing conditions as they cling to a past that destroys the very future of this nation, and this is where normally these micro-enterprises would have formed in times past. Supporting these micro-enterprises, as you call it, is also, I agree, a way to create opportunity and move forward. This is not done today by the SBA, because it's mission is to maximize the profits and security for banks on the backs of would-be entrepreneurs, who often get trapped into a degrading form of indentured servitude to banks by it. This inability to form new businesses is one reason class mobility has become so low in your United States.
My other observation is that your country was most economically productive at times when the marginal tax rates on wealth were highest. Tax cuts by contrast seem to only have created conditions for accumulation of stagnant wealth and have reduced availability of credit for business formation (a problem that actually began in the 80's), economic activity, and employment.
I suspect the reason why is that back in the 50's and 60's, the best way to avoid taxes was through investment, and hence a kind of bargain existed with the existing wealthy where one could either 'use' or 'loose' wealth, and thereby provide the resources for new industries through investment. Intelligent tax policies combined with raising marginal tax rates could do this again.1 year ago
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Ambassador Hope, G-192 Director General, Presidential Advisor at G-192Yes, the statistics are depressing but the solutions are empowering. I have been affected by the recession but i haven't participated in it! We have kept building our network, resources and capacity..with our IPO this month we will be empowering 200 million poor to live green and sustainable lives.1 year ago
Ambassador Hope, G-192 Director General, Presidential Advisor at G-192Alan a great set of slides that demonstrate the economic impact of the technological shift to knowledge economy. Tax cuts never work if liquidity is low. We must invest in SME's and micro-enterprises to empower the poor in America and all over the world to create income for themselves and not be reliant on Government or companies . I have advised President Obama on the NEW Foreign Empowerment Policy and we can create jobs for Americans overseas and apply it in the USA also.. Thank you for this important work you are doing on Inequality .1 year ago
The Rise and Consequences of Inequality in the United States: chartsPresentation Transcript
The Rise and Consequences of Inequality Alan B. Krueger Chairman Council of Economic Advisers January 12, 2012
Figure 1: Growing Together, Growing Apart Income Growth by Quintile, Various Periods Annual Growth Rate of Real Income Across the Family Income Distribution Annual Growth Rate of Real Income Across the Family Income Distribution Percent 1947 to 1979 Percent 1979 to 20103.5% 3.5%3.0% 3.0% 2.5%2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2%2.0% 2.0%1.5% 1.5% 1.2%1.0% 1.0% 0.6%0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%0.0% 0.0% Lowest fifth 2nd fifth Mid fifth 4th fifth Top fifth -0.5% -0.4% Lowest fifth 2nd fifth Mid fifth 4th fifth Top fifth Source: Census Bureau January 12, 2012 1
Figure 2: Growing Together Again 1992-2000 Annual Growth Rate of Real Income Across the Family Income Distribution Percent 1992-2000 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Lowest fifth 2nd fifth Mid fifth 4th fifth Top fifth Source: Census BureauJanuary 12, 2012 2
Figure 3: If Real Incomes Had Grown During the 2000s as They DidDuring the 1990s, the Median Household Would Have an Extra $8,900 in Annual Income in 2010 Median Household Income 2010 Dollars 60,000 If median household income had 58,000 grown during the 2000s at the same rate as it did during the 1990s 56,000 54,000 $8,900 52,000 50,000 2010 48,000 Actual 46,000 44,000 42,000 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Note: Shading denotes recession. Source: Census Bureau; CEA calculations January 12, 2012 3
Figure 4: CBO Estimates Show Much Faster Income Growth for the Top 1% Growth in Real After-Tax Income, 1979-2007 Percent Change 300% 278% 250% 200% 150% 100% 65% 50% 43% 35% 28% 18% 0% Lowest Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile 81st-99th Top 1 Percent Percentiles Source: CBO January 12, 2012 4
Figure 5: Income Inequality Near Record High Share of Income Earned,1916-2009 Percent of All U.S. Income 25 20 15 Top 1% 10 5 Top 0.1% 0 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 Source: 2010 update to Piketty and Saez (2006)January 12, 2012 5
Figure 6: The Size of the Middle-Class has Fallen Percent of Households With Annual Income Within 50% of the Median Percent 52 50.3 50 48 47.3 46 45.6 44.2 44 42.2 42 40 0 38 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: CEA Calculations from Current Population SurveyJanuary 12, 2012 6
Figure 7: “The Great Gatsby Curve”Higher income inequality associated with lower intergenerational mobility . The Great Gatsby Curve Intergenerational earnings elasticity 0.6 0.6 0.5 United Kingdom 0.5 United States 0.4 France 0.4 Japan Germany 0.3 0.3 New Zealand Sweden y = 2.2x - 0.27 R² = 0.76 0.2 Finland 0.2 y = 2.2x - 0.27 Norway R² = 0.76 Denmark 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 Inequality (1985 Gini Coefficient) Source: Corak (2011), OECD, CEA estimates January 12, 2012 7
Figure 8: “The Great Gatsby Curve”: Projection . The Great Gatsby Curve Intergenerational earnings elasticity 0.6 0.6 United States (2010) 0.5 United Kingdom 0.5 United States 0.4 France 0.4 Japan Germany 0.3 0.3 New Zealand Sweden y = 2.2x - 0.27 R² = 0.76 0.2 Finland 0.2 Norway Denmark y = 2.2x - 0.27 R² = 0.76 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 Inequality (1985 Gini Coefficient) Source: Corak (2011), OECD, CEA estimatesJanuary 12, 2012 8
Figure 9: Causes of Higher Inequality Box-5-3.─The Experts Consensus on Earnings Inequality Average percent distribution 50 40 30 20 10 0 Technological Other and International Decline in real Decline in Rising change unknown trade minimum wage unionization Immigration Source: Economic Report of the President, 1997January 12, 2012 9
Figure 10: U.S. Tax Code is Less Progressive than Most Other OECD Countries Gini Coefficient Before and After Taxes and Transfers, 2010 0.6 Before tax After tax 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Source: OECD January 12, 2012 10
Figure 11: Despite large tax cuts, less dynamism Startup Employment as a Share of Total Employment Percent 3.5 OBRA Deficit Balanced JGTRRA Reduction Act Budget Act EGTRRA 3.3 3.0 Average: 1993-2000 2.8 Average: 2001-2007 2.5 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: Business Dynamics StatisticsJanuary 12, 2012 11
United States Government Work
Design | Intuition
Each year we were rather profitable, but we could not secure financing for that ar. Banks were only interested if we wanted to borrow 1 to 10 million, not say 100K. We ended up carrying it on credit cards each year because there was no other option available, and this of course was not very sustainable. So in 2005 we finally had to close, and 8 people became unemployed, not because the market failed for us, or our products were wrong, or that we could not grow, but simply because we could not secure credit to meet continuing business needs.
Credit though is only one issue. Unlike my generation, who had looked at places as Silicon valley as the future and 'the place to be', when I speak with younger people today, they speak with the same excitement and wistfulness about Taipei Towers. Those working now try to get themselves there any way they can. That is where many of the new generation of the best and brightest now see the future. And business credit is just one part of the problem.
A lack of industrial policy, and a political culture that now clearly favors the law of rule over the rule of law also drives what is clearly becoming a growing exodus. I am quite familiar with this as well. While I have found no support nor opportunity for developing anything original in your United States in almost a decade now, some of my ideas, including how to change delivery of emergency medical services, have already been openly embraced and adopted by both national governments and commercial entities elsewhere. Your United States is truly destroying it's future to protect present entrenched interests, and I think it will take much more than a simple executive order to fix that. 1 year ago
The current conditions in your country create extreme dis-incentive for new capital and new business formation in many ways. Some are through entirely artificial blockades in market participation that have been created by your existing corporations to protect existing concentrations of wealth against competition and changing conditions as they cling to a past that destroys the very future of this nation, and this is where normally these micro-enterprises would have formed in times past. Supporting these micro-enterprises, as you call it, is also, I agree, a way to create opportunity and move forward. This is not done today by the SBA, because it's mission is to maximize the profits and security for banks on the backs of would-be entrepreneurs, who often get trapped into a degrading form of indentured servitude to banks by it. This inability to form new businesses is one reason class mobility has become so low in your United States.
My other observation is that your country was most economically productive at times when the marginal tax rates on wealth were highest. Tax cuts by contrast seem to only have created conditions for accumulation of stagnant wealth and have reduced availability of credit for business formation (a problem that actually began in the 80's), economic activity, and employment.
I suspect the reason why is that back in the 50's and 60's, the best way to avoid taxes was through investment, and hence a kind of bargain existed with the existing wealthy where one could either 'use' or 'loose' wealth, and thereby provide the resources for new industries through investment. Intelligent tax policies combined with raising marginal tax rates could do this again. 1 year ago