Wild Card Workshop
Wild Card Workshop
THE A R L I N G TON I N S TI TUTE
1 0 M A R C H 2 0 0 8
C A R L T O N H O T E L
S I N G A P O R E

Today’s Schedule
— Wild Cards: What They Are and How They Work
— Wild Cards: What They Are and How They Work –
John L. Petersen
— Wild Cards: Where to Look for Them –
— Wild Cards: Where to Look for Them –
Dr. Karlheinz Steinmueller
— Wild Card Identification and Monitoring –
— Wild Card Identification and Monitoring –
Humera Khan
— 1200 –
— 1200 – Lunch
— 1330 – Brainstorm Wild Cards
— 1330 – Brainstorm Wild Cards
— 1430 –
— 1430 – Wild Card Evaluation
— 1530 – Break
— 1530 – Break
— 1550 –
— 1550 – Determining Weak Signals and Monitoring
— 1715 – Adjourn
— 1715 – Adjourn

Wild Cards
Wild Cards
WHAT THEY ARE AND
HOW THEY WORK
J O HN L . PETER S EN
THE A R L I N G TON I N S TI TUTE

Major Paradigm Shifts
— Carl Sagan,
— Carl Sagan Evolution of Human Intelligence,
, Evolution of Human Intelligence ,
— American Museum of Natural History
—
— "important events in the history of life" in the
—
Encyclopædia Britannica
—
— Astronomy and Planetary Science (University of Arizona)
Astronomy and Planetary Science (University of Arizona)
—
— Paul D. Boyer, biochemist, winner of 1997 Nobel prize,
Paul D. Boyer , biochemist, winner of 1997 Nobel prize,
private communications
—
— J.D. Barrow and J. Silk, The Structure of the Early
J.D. Barrow and J. Silk , The Structure of the Early
Universe
—
— Jean Heidmann,
Jean Heidmann Cosmic Odyssey: Observatoir de Paris
, Cosmic Odyssey: Observatoir de Paris
—
— J. William Schopf,
J. William Schopf Major Events in the History of Life
, Major Events in the History of Life
—
— Philip Tobias,
Philip Tobias Major Events in the History of Mankind
, Major Events in the History of Mankind
—
— David Nielson,
David Nielson Lecture on Molecular Evolution
, Lecture on Molecular Evolution
—
— Göran Burenhult,
Göran Burenhult The First Humans: Humans Origins and
, The First Humans: Humans Origins and
History to 10,000 BC
—
— D. Johanson and B. Edgar,
D. Johanson and B. Edgar From Lucy to Language
, From Lucy to Language
—
— R. Coren,
R. Coren The Evolutionary Trajectory: The Growth of
, The Evolutionary Trajectory: The Growth of
Information in the History and Future of Earth
Information in the History and Future of Earth

Ray Kurzweil:
“
The paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical
progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade;
that is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the
rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially). So, the
technological progress in the twenty­
technological progress in the twenty first century will be
­first century will be
equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the
order of 200 centuries. In contrast, the twentieth century saw
only about 25 years of progress (again at today's rate of
progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So
progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So
the twenty­
the twenty first century will see almost a thousand times
­first century will see almost a thousand times
greater technological change than its predecessor.
greater technological change than its predecessor ”.

Ray Kurzweil:
That is equivalent to about
80 times the
80 times the
advancements of the last
century in the next ten
century in the next ten
years.
years
.

We must learn to
deal with:
deal with:
EXTRAORDINARY
CHANGE

“We can’t predict the future,
but we can prepare for it”
—Nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine
—
Nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine

Ilya Prigogine
— “The future is not given. What is an event? An analogy
—
with 'bifurcations', which are studied above all in non­
with 'bifurcations', which are studied above all in non ­
equilibrium physics, comes immediately to mind.
These bifurcations appear at special points where the
trajectory followed by a system subdivides into
'branches'. All branches are possible, but only one of
them will be taken. One does not generally see a single
bifurcation; in general, a succession of them appear.
This means that even in the fundamental sciences
there is a temporal, narrative element, and this
constitutes the ‘End of Certitudes', which is the title of
my last book.”
my last book.”

Paradox of the Problem
— The process of the evolution of the future is too
complex to predict.
— When we arrive at any point in the future, we are
able to look back and follow a line that shows us
how events, trends and wild cards converged to get
us to the particular future.
— In effect the clues and/or “dots” are there to be
connected, but their significance is too subtle or
uncertain for us to comprehend their connections.

Event 1 Future
Event 2 Future
Future
Event 3
Future
Event 4
Actual Future
Event 5
Future
Event 6

Opportunity
— Number of potential significant future states is
significant
much less than the total and is therefore
theoretically tractable
— Even identifying a handful of unanticipated
potential events of great significance could be
very valuable
— New technologies make some of this possible

Equation of the Future
TRENDS + CROSSCUTS +
WILDCARDS = FUTURE
FUTURE

Trends

Crosscuts
Climate Change

Intrinsic Problems
— Trends
¡ Stop
— Crosscuts
¡ Rapidly become far too complex to anticipate
Rapidly become far too complex to anticipate

Wild Cards
Wild Cards
ARE NOT TRENDS

Wild Cards
Wild Cards
ARE NOT UNANTICI PA TE D
CONSEQUEN CE S

Wild Cards
Wild Cards
ARE NOT LITTLE SURPRI SE S

Big Surprises
— Futures that emerge quickly, without much
early notice
— Low probability/high impact

Wild Cards:
§ Low Probability, High Impact Events
§ So big or come so fast that social
systems can’t effectively deal with
them
§ Seemingly out of control

Trend
Trend
implications
possible sources of
weak signals wild card
pre­incident events

Wild Cards are directly
related to:
§ STRENGTHS
§ VULNERABILITIES

Anticipating Wild Cards
RULE 1:
If you haven’t thought
about it, you haven’t
thought about it.
Wild Card Rule Books

Anticipating Wild Cards
RULE 2:
If you don’t think
about a wild card
significantly before it
happens, all of the
value of thinking about
it is lost.

Anticipating Wild Cards
RULE 3:
Every significant event
derives from precursor
events, each of which
leaves tracks
tracks
Corollary: There are early indicators for everything

Anticipating Wild Cards
RULE 4:
Accessing and
understanding
information is key
Wild Card Rule Books

Anticipating Wild Cards
RULE 5:
Extraordinary events
will require
extraordinary
approaches

Anticipating Wild Cards
— The key seems to be careful, focused
and objective observation coupled
at times with unusual new methods
of accessing information
— Systems thinking is required
The Arlington Institute © 2004 John L. Petersen

Character of Wild Cards
CHAIN
CHAIN REACTION:
rd
Rapid 3
World Development
Rapid
Global
Energy Development
Breakthrough
One Wild Card Causes Another
One Wild Card Causes Another

Character of Wild Cards
SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS:
Rumor
2
Mistake
3
Event
1
Independent Wild Cards influence each other
Independent Wild Cards influence each other

Character of Wild Cards
SYSTEMIC ENABLERS:
Internet II+
“Global Brain”
Wild Cards enabled by environment
Wild Cards enabled by environment

Character of Wild Cards
TOO BIG TO LET HAPPEN:
Event
2
Event
1
Mother
Of all
Wild Cards
One Wild Card Eliminates all others
One Wild Card Eliminates all others

Wild Cards are both
POSITIVE
and
NEGATIVE
NEGATIVE

Arlington’s Wild Cards
— Energy Revolution — Global Epidemic
¡ New technologies that provide a
¡ Spread by transport systems;
cheap and inexhaustible energy
supply very large secondary impact
— Rapid Climate Change — Contact
¡ Emerging climate/weather
¡ The impact of NHI discovery
patterns that have the potential
to severely affect public health, on religious, political, and
political systems, and the global scientific institutions
economy
— Collapse of Order in Saudi — Financial Derivative
Arabia Markets Fold
¡ Fundamentalists bring down ¡ House of cards collapses per
monarchy, destroy oil
infrastructure Warren Buffett

If you see them coming:
— You can
¡ Prepare for some wild cards
¡ Derail some of them

So What Must We
Do?
Do?

Q: What is surprise anticipation?
— A: Surprise anticipation is a systematic
A: Surprise anticipation is a systematic
approach for getting a sense of the
approach of potential future events that
approach of potential future events that
if not noticed would have particularly
if not noticed would have particularly
significant implications for the assessor
because of its speed of advance and/or
size.
size.

Surprise Anticipation
¡ Collecting information
¡ Determining potential events
¡ Establishing particular significance
¡ Identifying indicators
¡ Monitoring for indicators

What Does Humanity Need?
— New Thinking
¡ Systems Thinking
— New Values
¡ Cooperation, not just
competition
— New Tools
¡ Make sense out of the change
¡ Resources
Resources
The Arlington Institute