What Is horizon scanning

What is….. Horizon Scanning? ESRC Research Methods Festival 2008 St Catherine’s College, Oxford 02 July 20 08 Dr Harry Woodroof Leader, Delta (S&T) Scan Horizon Scanning Centre Government Office for Science Department of Innovation, Universities and Skills Bay 250, Kingsgate House, 66 – 74 Victoria St, London. SW1E 6SW +44 (0)203 300 8840 [email_address] <http://www.foresight.gov.uk/horizonscanning/>

Prime Minister and Cabinet Professor John Beddington Government Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of GO-Science Government Office for Science (GO-Science) S ocial T echnical E conomic E nvironmental P olitical The Foresight Programme Foresight projects (large (18 months) , science-based) Horizon Scanning Centre smaller projects, entire policy spectrum strategy

HSC Aims (from 10 year S&I investment) – launched March ‘05

Inform strategic prioritisation across UK Govt

Capability-raising in Govt Depts

Implemented through:

Targeted projects

Training

Strong networks

Future Analysts Network (FAN) Club

30+ projects, 30+ depts., 1000+ in training / networking events, Direct impacts on Govt. Strategy, Policy, Skills, Prioritisation

Horizon Scanning is... “… . the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely developments including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.” (Chief Scientists Advisers Committee, Sep 2004)

Horizon scanning is…… Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales Looking across – beyond usual sources beyond a ‘single expected future’ to a ‘range of possible futures’ to consider implications for today’s decisions … .resilience and adaptability in strategy

What horizon scanning is … and isn’t

It is NOT about:

Predicting the future

It IS about:

Exploring possibilities for the future to ensure that your strategies are robust

Range of horizon scanning activity S ocial T echnical E conomic E nvironmental P olitical S cience & T echnology Developing issues Implications (so what?) Decisions FORESIGHT INSIGHT ACTION (from IFTF) Strategic change management Strategic prioritisation Policy decisions Risk management Threat identification S&T research priorities PURPOSES scanning engagement to achieve impact

Nature of horizon scanning

The evidence-based policy “paradox”:

Policy is about solutions for the future

But conventional “evidence” is about the past

We can project trends forwards… but all trends eventually change

The parable of the turkey

HS is an approach to resolving the paradox by drawing on tacit knowledge and the wisdom of crowds (diversity is v. important)

Horizon Scanning – Evidential Tools (published Dec 06) Outsights / Ipsos MORI

S CAN

(everything)

Institute for the Future Delta Scan: cutting-edge perspectives of over 250 S&T experts Sigma Scan: synthesis of best global futures work www.sigmascan.org www.deltascan.org

Sigma

scan

Right to live: right to die?

Global courting : the supremacy of international law.

Increase in e-commuting.

UK rules OK : isolationist Britain.

End of public broadcasting.

Ghettoisation of minority populations.

Landfill capacity limits reached.

Economic impact of ageing.

The “rights” of robots.

Corrupting aid flows

………………… .

Delta

(S&T) scan

Active biomaterials for regenerative medicine.

Quantum chemistry for pollution abatement.

Nanowire sensors for DNA testing.

Advent of molecular archaeology.

Computing on the human platform.

Solar: the energy wild-card.

From ink-jet printing to personal fabrication.

Brazil’s expanding tech. sector.

………………… .

Scan Architecture - linking evidence and analysis

Summary sentence

Supporting analysis (paras)

Bullet-points

Implications

Barriers/inhibitors

Early indicators

Parallels/precedents

Leading institutions

Sources : evidence-based

Multi-level outputs

Range : single sentence to great detail

Portal for further research

HSC “scan of scans”

& “expert views”

In common with much futures/foresight work, the Scans are designed to challenge current thinking and implicit assumptions. They do not to attempt to predict the future.

Sigma Scan

“ scan of scans”

The Sigma Scan is a synthesis of future issues and trends covering the full public policy agenda drawn from a range of sources (including think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals, charities/NGOs, blog sites, minority communities, futurists).

SIGMA : scan of scans Adam Smith Institute Arlington Institute Atlantic Monthly Brookings Institution Cato Center for Trade Policy Studies Centre for European Reform Centre for Strategic and International Studies Chatham House Foreign Affairs Hoover Digest Independent Commission on Population and Quality of Life Institut de Recherche en Politiques Publiques Institute for Fiscal Studies British Social Attitudes Survey Centre for Environmental Research, Columbia University e-Living (EC 5FP) Project ESRC Centre for Business Research, Institute of Development Studies Los Angeles Law Review Policy Studies Review Russian Journal, The Science Science and Public Policy World Values Survey Europe 2020 Future of Work Futures Futurist Institute for the Future McKinsey Global Institute MORI Polls Shaping Tomorrow Shell Global Scenarios Siemens Horizons SRI Consulting World Future Society Think tanks Academic publications Mainstream media Central Intelligence Agency (US) Commonwealth Secretariat Competition Commission DEFRA Baseline Scan DEFRA Forward Look Department for Culture, Media and Sport Department for International Development Department for Work and Pensions Department of Education (US) Department of Health Department of Justice (US) Department of Labor (US) Corporate Foresight Expert/Strategic thinkers Government sources Alternative journals Amnesty International Board of Deputies of British Jews British Council Countryside Alliance International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement Make Poverty History campaign Muslim Council of Britain Oxfam Trade Union Congress World Health Organization World Trade Organization Institute for Public Policy Research Charities/NGOs Blog sites Minority communities Futurologists the top Horizon Scan sources global coverage both ‘traditional’ and ‘unconventional’

Process Provenance Leading Futures sources scanned for key issues 1. Overview scan 2. Issues ‘tree’ Range of issues identified from mainstream-marginal. 3. Issue generation 1. Brainstorming, noting and scoping 2. Sources: review available evidence 3. Drafting within defined text-fields 4. Review and further referencing 4. Internal QC Partnership: 3 stages of edit 6. External review & gap filling Stakeholders, end-users and experts: engagement, enrichment & gaps 5. ‘Horizon’ review Horizon panel: Issue topics sense-checked and reviewed for gaps Sigma Scan

Delta (S&T) Scan

“ expert views”

The Delta (S&T) Scan is an overview of future science and technology issues and trends, with contributions by science and technology experts from the worlds of government, business, academia and communication. Interviews Workshops wiki

2008 refresh :

issue selection criteria

Gap: is not already covered sufficiently in the Sigma-Delta Scan Relevance: the theme or trend is potentially relevant to a wide range of UK policy stakeholders and departments, or strongly relevant to a smaller number of departments/policymakers. Impact: the theme or trend could have significant impacts on important aspects of UK Government policy. Evidence: the theme or trend is underpinned, at least to some degree, by a critical mass of authoritative, credible evidence. Stimulus: the theme or topic is future-focussed and not merely descriptive of current reality or known variables and reporting. It either describes something new or casts new light on an existing issue.

Developing robust and sustainable strategies Where we are now Where we want to be How we get there Analysis of past evidence Analysis of core certainties (modelling, forecasting) Exploration of uncertainties (horizon scanning) Creation of vision (horizon scanning)

Example Project Impacts Asia Task Force, PBR 05, Instrumental in shaping trade policy & UKTI Strategy, Crosby/HMT – public/private forum Key statement on ID policy architecture [HMT, HO, Industry, LSE, Liberty] 20 perm secs, 13 depts - HMT (International Institutions) FCO/DfID/MoD – cross-dept strategic issues UKTI – comparative advantage OSI International Strategy, BERR – Board strategy DIUS - ? , etc.,… 14 Depts. prioritisation HMT CSR Publication SR Guidance Informs public dialogue MoD strategic trends HSE future of work OSI CSR bid IDENTITY MANAGEMENT INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROJECT ? ? EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES