THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY
18 : 06 : 2009
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: THE FUTURE sUmmiT
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: THE FiFTH scEnARiO

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : DEsiGn DiREcTiOn : UTOpiA
THE FiFTH scEnARiO
The number of HNWIs
globally has grown by 6.5% to
8.7m. Overall HNWI wealth
grew by 8.5%, to US$33.3
trillion in financial holdings.
The Age of Stupid by Spanner Films
Photography : Matthew Donaldson

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
‘Extreme improbable events
are the norm rather than the
exception. They dominate
the world’
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Black
Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
‘The Continuous Enclave: Strategies in Bypass Urbanism’
by Viktor Ramos

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
At this very moment, the
economy, the environment,
science and technology, and
the global balance of power
are undergoing massive shifts.
Such cataclysmic change
heralds a shift so radical
we now have to ‘think the
unthinkable’ as a matter
of course
‘Venus’ natural crystal chair by Tokujin Yoshioka

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
‘Obama’s election, the
cracking of the human
genome project, the end of
fossil fuels… the list goes on.
There are a whole range of
indicators around us today
that point to the sudden,
massive change ahead’
Adam Gordon, author of Future Savvy

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Here, mediocrity and replication have no place,
and products, concepts and outlook will take their lead from
the unprecedented. In a world where everything is changing,
businesses that can’t or won’t change are set to wither and die
Masterplan for a carbon-neutral resort and residential
development on Zira Island in the Caspian Sea
by Bjarke Ingels Group

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Trend Drivers :

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Australian environmental business expert Paul Gilding calls
this the Great Disruption, a time when Mother Nature and
Father Greed hit the wall simultaneously
‘Design Probe: Food’ project by Philips Design
takes a provocative look at the future of food

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
‘We are taking a system
operating past its capacity
and driving it faster and
harder. No matter how
wonderful the system is,
the laws of physics and
biology still apply’
Paul Gilding, social entrepreneur
and business consultant
‘Time after Time’ series by Ori Gersht depicts bouquets
frozen with liquid nitrogen, captured at the moment
of explosion

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Cataclysmic change is going
to occur as the result of
economic, environmental,
societal, political and scientific
stresses because they are
happening simultaneously
and they’re happening now
Norton Symantec security software advertisement, reading:
‘I am in danger. You are in danger. Japan is in danger.
Protect yourself with yellow’

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
The global economic, political
and environmental systems
are in collapse, our biological
and business systems are
mutating, and new life
forms are emerging
‘BigDog’ quadruped robot by Boston Dynamics has an
advanced system of hyper-responsive hydraulic joints
and a host of sensors, accelerometers and gyroscopes

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Trend Impact :

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A fragile world
‘Globalisation creates
an interlocking fragility,
while giving the appearance
of stability’
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Black
Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
The message : Pace change,
measure it, monitor it,
be aware of the invisible
networks within your
business – connections with
cataclysmic consequences
Nike and Amusement magazine collaborated to create
the first sneaker that connects to the internet

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Environmental consequences
Climate change is chaotic
but its impact is systematic,
according to author Thomas
Homer-Dixon. It affects us on
an emotional, irrational and
interconnected scale.
The message : Change
happens but we resist it
because we cannot see the
bigger picture. Preparedness,
he says, needs to be a
‘live strategy’, not an
irregular consideration
Onehundredmonths.org counts down until the ‘point of
no return’ – the moment at which it will be too late to save
ourselves from the devastating effects of climate change

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Technological cascades
There are now more scientists
in the world than at any other
point in history, says Juan
Enriquez, director of the
Harvard Business School Life
Sciences Project.
The message : We must
embrace mechanisms and
envisioning tools that speak
to ‘the unusual suspects’ and
encourage us to think the
unthinkable – the Singularity
University does this
A nano car by the James M. Tour Group at Rice University

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : DEsiGn DiREcTiOn : UTOpiA
THE FiFTH scEnARiO
The number of HNWIs
globally has grown by 6.5% to
8.7m. Overall HNWI wealth
grew by 8.5%, to US$33.3
trillion in financial holdings.
Photography : Matthew Donaldson

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Simplexity rules
Changes include hybrid
humans, the biotech and
stemtech boom, and
w(h)ealthcare as a new
economic model – all
with unintended
consequences, says
philosopher Theodore Zeldin.
The message : Always
consider the abstracts of an
idea. Rather than mulling
over the answer to a question,
ask yourself this: Am I asking
the right question?
‘Third Hand’ artificial hand by Stelarc is meant as
an addition rather than a prosthetic replacement

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
New moral order
‘A decade ago, we did not
need GM and could be
persuaded that it was wicked.
Now that the food crisis has
emerged, we are seeing GM
as a solution, and science
as a saviour’
Professor Brigitte Nerlich, University
of Nottingham
The message : Science,
technology and pressing
human needs are calling on
us to embrace a morality that
is secular, not sectist. It’s time
to re-examine fixed values

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
New scenarios needed
This unwillingness to take
a risk is a natural human
instinct – it feels
uncomfortable. But the Fifth
Scenario is about embracing
ideas that destabilise your
sense of place and priority.
It shouldn’t feel cosy or
familiar; it should be thrilling
and disturbing
Bahnhof office, Vita Berg Park, Stockholm, by Albert France-
Lanord Architects is a subterranean workspace for one of the
country’s largest internet service providers

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Scenario planners use four scenario models to test
future predictions:
: cenario 1 suggests that tomorrow will be more or less
S
the same as the present
: cenario 2 suggests that, all variables taken into account,
S
tomorrow will be better and brighter if we continue in the
direction we’re currently going
: cenario 3 suggests that things will get worse in terms
S
of competitor activity, but also with regard to all social,
cultural, economic and civic drivers
: cenario 4 accepts the fact that things are never black
S
or white, but are complex and mercurial

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Scenario 5 suggests that the unthinkable happens. So to
embrace change, we must first embrace the inevitability
of change – by ‘thinking the unthinkable’ when anticipating
future events
‘Lilypad: A Floating Ecopolis for Climate Refugees’
by Vincent Callebaut Architects

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Trend Consequences :

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In the world of cataclysmic
change, the global flow of
goods, services and energy
will be forced to restructure
‘Seawater Vertical Farm’ concept, Dubai, by studiomobile
uses seawater to cool, humidify and irrigate crops in a series
of stacked greenhouses

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
‘Production will have to come closer to consumption. Local
communities will need to grow and process much more
of the food they consume.’
Thomas Homer-Dixon, author of The Upside of Down
Today, buying locally sourced products is a lifestyle choice.
Tomorrow, it will be a necessity
‘Seawater Vertical Farm’,
Dubai, by studiomobile

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Three-dimensional printing technology will turn our local
convenience stores into mini factories. We will download
patterns for toys or simple objects, then pick up the products
from our corner store. Business will be forced to adapt
to selling blueprints rather than products
‘Electric Light Shoe’ by Freedom
of Creation for Onitsuka Tiger

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
A lessened or non-existent
reliance on distant producers
for our energy, goods and
services will have a profound
effect on economies around
the world, causing political
instability and tipping the
balance in critical states and
countries. The end of global
trading could bring about
societal collapse

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
‘Just as in the 30s, people will
respond to the destabilisation
with extremism,’ Homer-
Dixon says, suggesting that
the Fifth Scenario will be
characterised by a surge in
social unrest, political
radicalisation, nationalism
and religious fundamentalism

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
The challenge in our Fifth Scenario will be to prevent this
extremism from taking control of the political and
psychological terrain. We will need to engineer a reset,
to better occupy the new space this breakdown will create
‘The Continuous Enclave: Strategies in Bypass Urbanism’
by Viktor Ramos at Rice University

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
In this open space, new
industries will emerge,
such as one that allows the
human body to stay healthy
throughout its life.
Advances in genetic
engineering have now made
it possible to create biological
systems from scratch. We
may soon be able to grow
a new kidney, a new lung,
a new liver
‘The EyeBorg Project’ by Rob Spence and Kosta Grammatis
involves a video camera and transmitter embedded in the
filmmaker’s prosthetic eye

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Stem cells are hot. UK
companies account for 40% of
biotechnology products in the
pipeline in Europe, according
to UK Trade & Investment.
Across the Atlantic, stem
cell testing has finally been
approved. Industry experts
suggest that stem cell
research is about to go
through a dot-com boom
Polyps of the organ pipe coral (photography Norbert
Wu/Science Faction/Corbis)

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Researchers at the Wake
Forest Institute for
Regenerative Medicine in
North Carolina have already
successfully engineered
muscle, bone and blood
vessels. Now, they have
combined them to grow both
a human finger and a single
ear in a Petri dish
Photography by Paul Zak

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Such advances in stem cell technology are currently being
used towards growing new bladders or trachea for patients,
and could eventually allow people to manipulate the
reproductive process
A bladder being grown at the Wake Forest Institute
for Regenerative Medicine

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
But such biotechnological
advances will have a
destabilising effect on our
societies – societies that have
functioned along generational
divides and a natural
progression since they began.
The Fifth Scenario will be
a place where culture will
have lost that sense of
progression and narrative,
and the fallout will occur
in unimaginable ways
‘Evolution’ by Lucy and Bart

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Trend Futures :

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Homo Infanz
The profile of human
behaviour – which is
changing rapidly as a result
of our interaction with the
shifting environment of
transformative developments
– will be vastly different from
what we assume it to be today
Photography : BY, New York, Boffi, Living & Porro

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Screen and digital technology
alone are already affecting
the human mind and will
continue to do so.
‘Humans will crave a more
instant world; a literal world
that is laden with senses;
[a world that is] about the
thrill of the moment, where
there are no consequences
because you can just go back
and do it again’
Baroness Susan Greenfield, director
of the Royal Institution of Great Britain
‘Struktable’ by Strukt is an interactive tabletop
display with a multi-touch surface, suitable for product
presentations, interactive gamestations and information
terminals in public spaces

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
In the Fifth Scenario, then,
people will have shorter
attention spans and perhaps
higher IQs; they may be more
hedonistic and less reflective,
and will take more risks. Not
altogether bad characteristics,
they are simply different from
the behaviour that guides
society today

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Homo Evolutis
These changes will be
irreversible at a biological
level as well, predicts Juan
Enriquez, founding director of
the Harvard Business School
Life Sciences Project. He calls
this next species Homo
Evolutis – a species that we
ourselves are coding through
our ability to engineer cells,
tissues and robots
‘Extra Ear: Ear on Arm (Internet Enabled Body)’
by Stelarc uses a Bluetooth-connected silicon ear
implant to act as a remote listening device

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Collectively, what these forces
show is that we are going to a
new place, and we will have to
manage the change using the
tools we have long since been
suspicious of: imagination,
creativity, dreaming,
storytelling, fantasy
‘Phenomenon 3’ from the Balloon Sculpture series
by Paul Graves

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‘We will have to start creating again. Homes will start
to be rebuilt.’
Thomas Homer-Dixon, author of The Upside of Down
Homes – and brands, and inventions, and societal mores –
will answer a whole new set of personal, societal, global,
political, economic and environmental needs and desires
‘No Man’s Land’ island complex project in the Dead Sea
by Phu Hoang Office

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
It’s only through the codes
of Dreamtelligence and bold
innovation that we have a
chance of meeting the vastly
different needs of a world
that has been torn down,
mutated and rebuilt
to a different agenda
Seed archive by Brittany Bell at Victoria University School
of Design, New Zealand, mimics the architecture of a plant

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
What This Means :

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The art of the CEO
A reboot to this degree
requires new skills to cope.
A more lateral approach to
business savvy is already
being adopted in management
programmes that are
increasingly looking to design
and Dreamtelligence skills
and processes to come up
with innovative solutions
to business problems

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Bruce Mau’s Institute without
Boundaries in Toronto aims
to produce a new breed of
designer who is, in the words
of R. Buckminster Fuller, a
‘synthesis of artist, inventor,
mechanic, objective economist
and evolutionary strategist’
‘Featherless Chicken’ by Avigdor Cahaner at the ‘Massive
Change’ exhibition curated by Bruce Mau Design and the
Institute Without Boundaries

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Be the change
Bold new inventions from
the emerging economies
demonstrate how to break
from convention as well.
: ata Nano ‘people’s car’
T
in India
: ebanese architect Nadim
L
Karam’s ‘Cloud’ resort-in-
the-sky concept
Ultra cheap mini car Tata Nano Europa is an
upgraded version of the $2,500 ‘people’s car’
soon to go into production in India

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
The Fifth Scenario is not only
about trying to deduce how
the world will transform,
it’s about actually being
that transformation
‘You don’t predict the future.
You build it – you change it’
Adam Gordon, author of Future Savvy
‘The Cloud’ concept, Dubai, by Nadim Karam at Atelier
Hapsitus proposes a resort built 300 metres above land

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : DEsiGn DiREcTiOn : UTOpiA
THE FiFTH scEnARiO
The number of HNWIs
globally has grown by 6.5% to
8.7m. Overall HNWI wealth
grew by 8.5%, to US$33.3
trillion in financial holdings.
‘The Cloud’ concept, Dubai, by Nadim Karam at Atelier
Hapsitus proposes a resort built 300 metres above land
Photography : Matthew Donaldson

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Keep moving
In a world that is constantly
changing, the brand needs
to play chameleon as well
Bazar coffee by Heineken

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‘The next generation of
consumers who have been
surrounded by all this change
will expect their brands to
keep up, too. A lot of brands’
philosophy is not to mess with
it, but in this new world you
have to adapt, change and
morph when required’
Michael Johnson, DesignWeek columnist
and founder of design firm Johnson Banks
‘Rush’ bag by Claire Ferreira at the RCA’s Crisis Shop,
Milan Salone Internazionale del Mobile 2009

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If it’s broke, fix it
Just as Yamaha switched from pianos to motorbikes
in the 80s, brands today need to have the same loose
attachment to core product
‘The business may be old and venerable, but, in a
modern changing world, if it isn’t prepared to take
a new angle, it will go under’
Adam Gordon, author of Future Savvy
Photography : BY, New York, Boffi, Living & Porro

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Chinese battery maker BYD created BYD Auto, the country’s
first hybrid car manufacturer. Little wonder that BYD is now
referred to as ‘Build Your Dreams’
BYD Auto F3 sedan by China’s first hybrid car manufacturer

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
Leap, don’t creep
In the Fifth Scenario, small
incremental changes are not
sufficient. Brands need to
engage in wild-skies thinking
that allows them to accelerate
exponentially from today.
Incremental change is
backward change
‘Mutated Slabs’ urban planning proposal for Ansan,
South Korea, by Minsuk Cho at Mass Studies offers
architectural responses to intensely over-populated
urban conditions and other emergent cultural niches
that define contemporary society

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY : THE FUTURE sUmmiT : THE FiFTH scEnARiO
It’s through appropriating a design and art approach to
problems that new products and brands will be launched,
creating new categories and redefining or retiring old ones.
Be ready for a revolutionary – not evolutionary – shift.
Disengage with what you know, and engage with
the Fifth Scenario
King Abdulaziz Center for Knowledge and Culture,
Saudi Arabia, by Snøhetta

THE : FUTURE : LABORATORY
18 : 06 : 2009
:
: THE FUTURE sUmmiT
:
: THE FiFTH scEnARiO