Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom AG
Presentation for the IRAHSS 08
René Rohrbeck, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt
Slides-for-lecture-Christopher-Schläffer.ppt 13.08.2007
27.05.2008 1

Content.
1 Introduction
2 Continuous Strategic Foresight
2.1 Technology Radar
2.2 Product and Service Radar
2.3 Customer Foresight
3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 2

The ICT industry has to reinvent itself.
Current influences on the ICT industry (examples)
Market
Decreasing revenues in core business
Liberalization
Any software developer can offer complex services
Horizontalization
Shift of value
To value added services and devices
distribution
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 3

Strategic Foresight is a set of tools for early identification
and assessment of changes in the environment.
Theoretical Foundation
Strategic management is characterized by a certain ignorance to
changes happening outside their current business (Ansoff 1980)
Strategic discontinuities are announced by weak signals (Ansoff, et
al. 1976 )
They have to be identified in the environment (Boizard 2005, Day/
Weak Signals
Schoemaker 2005, Lesca/ Caron 1995)
They are usually fuzzy and unstructured (Krystek 2007)
“The search for weak signals is one where you do not know what you
are looking for” (Liebl 2005)
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 4

Strategic Foresight creates a coherent and functional
forward view.
create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and
functional forward view
Strategic Corporate
Management Development
guide policy and shape
explore new markets
strategy
Strategic
Foresight
detect adverse explore new products
conditions and services
Strategic Innovation
Controlling Management
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 5

In a fast moving environment it is essential
to continuously scan for changes!

Content.
1 Introduction
2 Continuous Strategic Foresight
2.1 Technology Radar
2.2 Product and Service Radar
2.3 Customer Foresight
3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 7

Three major tools at Deutsche Telekom are
examples for continuous scanning. Strategic
Foresight
Product & Service Radar Technology Radar
TR
P&S
Assessment of competitors and Identification, assessment and
identification and assessment of usage of information on emerging
products and service in technologies and technological
development or available in lead discontinuities
markets
Customer Foresight
Identification, assessment and
anticipation of consumer needs,
lifestyle and socio-cultural trends
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 8

The Technology Radar gives a pre-evaluation of
relevant up-coming technologies for DTAG. Technology
Intelligence
Early identification of technologies, technological trends and technological shocks
Summary of technology intelligence findings
Molecular Computing
GENI
OptIPuter
Project Fastball
60 technologies with relevance for DT AG
A-IMS
Quantum Communications
IP Header compression P2P TV THz Data Comm
Network Coding
Semantic Web Services
Shared Wireless SPEERMINT IP Emergency Calls
Technologies are selected according to:
Remote Hardw. Mgmt
Desktop Videoconf
Supply Line Access EPC Data Stream Mgmt
Context Awareness in IMS
MAGNET Beyond Place-shifting
- Relevance for DT AG
Document Lifecycle Mgmt Music Search Network DRM
HybridOptWi
Quadruple Play
VoIP Peering Image-based queries
IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)
- “Not yet covered inside DT AG”
VoiSearch SPARQL
InteractTV
Virtual
Sentient Things Customized cartoon
MIMO 3-D TV Next Generation
3G-Femto-Cell
Technologies are classified according to:
Audio Inf. Mgmt
Internet Indirection
E-DRM
60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set Voice & Video
Internet Televisions
over WLAN RuBEE
Rich Internet
- their development phase
Kilocore Chips
SecureBlue SOA 2.0
SocComp Web 2.0
Open (Source) Hardware
UC Apps Mobile Authoring
WMM™ Power
- technological area
Universal Chip for
Save User Centric
Cell Phones UICC
Identity
Mobile Grid SenseWeb
- relevance
DTAG Relevance
High
Medium
Low
Classification within six technologies fields
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 9

The Technology Radar tracks individual
technologies and overall technological trends. Technology
Intelligence
The Technology Radar - A Tool for Technology Intelligence at T-Labs
Emerging Technologies Technology Trend Activities
Informing you about emerging Reporting on actual activities on
Gathering in-depth information on
technologies potentially effecting one hot technology field from a emerging technologies in DT.
DT‘s future business. research and business
perspective.
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 10

The Technology Foresight is based on an
international network of scouts Technology
Intelligence
Identification Selection Assessment Dissemination
Innovation
International Strategy
?
Scout Network
!
uses sources in
universities & industry ? !
?
! !
?
!
CTOs and CMOs
? ! !
?
!
!
? !
!
R&D and
?
Product Manager
Source: Rohrbeck (2007) Technology Scouting - a case study on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 11

The Product & Service Radar complements
with a scan of start-ups’ and competitors’services. Technology
& Market
The Technology Radar The Product & Service Radar
…is identifying and assessing emerging technologies …is identifying and assessing emerging products
and services
…is published by the T-Labs
…is published by Corporate Product and Innovation
Mobile
Internet
Co
nv
er
ge
V
n
IPT
ce
MA IP VAS
ICT
Lau
An
nch
Co
no u
ed
nc e
nce
pt
d
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 12

The Consumer Foresight contributes customer
needs and socio-cultural trends at various stages. Customer
Foresight
Day in the life visits Insight clinic
Personal customer visits with Personal, direct interaction
cross-functional teams along different “insight” stations
Direct interaction with customers Topic-specific design: e.g.
through observation and product/service confrontation to
interviews identify barriers, group discussions to identify latent
needs/ means-end-chains
“User in the box”: Vivid documentation of
ICT-infrastructure & usage patterns
(Online) Diary research (Online) Interviews
Target groups create topic-specific Execution of (online) interviews
(online) diaries over a in order to identify latent needs
predefined period of time & barriers
Pre-structuring of the diaries, Introduction & prioritization of
e.g. referring needs/wants, usability requirements, new product/service functions (mini concepts²)
drivers/barriers Laddering technique to derive means-end-chains
Further Reading: Leonard/Rayport 1995; Mrazek et al. 1995, 2 e.g. Durgee et al. 1998
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 13

Continuous scanning detects threats and
opportunities.
The most promising opportunities are
then explored, assessed and planned for
implementation.

Content.
1 Introduction
2 Continuous Strategic Foresight
2.1 Technology Radar
2.2 Product and Service Radar
2.3 Customer Foresight
3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 15

Combination of scenario analysis and roadmapping allows linking
R&D results with innovation and new business development.
1 2 3 4
Environmental Scenario Roadmap Navigation board
analysis development development development
“The navigation board
“The roadmap defines
allows the continuous
milestones and key
“Identifying the key “Multiple distinct
tracking of
developments
factors affecting the scenarios reflect any
assumptions and the
needed, to reach the
new business field” possible future”
progress towards the
favorable scenario”
favorable scenario”
Source: Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - Strategic Planning of Innovation at Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on Strategic Planning of R&D and New Business.
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 16

The Environmental Scanning identifies all relevant
factors that influence the new field.
Environmental scanning
Factors that influence our core
Political Technology
activities
Foresight Intelligence Current
Business
Influencing factors from
neighboring industries
Adjacent
Current
E.g. IT-sector for the
business environment
telecommunication industry
Areas which today have no
connection to our current business,
White
but might have an important impact
Competitor
Consumer spaces
in the future
Foresight
Foresight
Source: Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - Strategic Planning of Innovation at Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on Strategic Planning of R&D and New Business.
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 17

The Scenario Analysis provides three to six
scenarios that represent any possible future.
Desired scenario Alternative scenario
1 2
Description Description
Multiple
distinct
scenarios
Description Description
3 Unfavorable scenario A 4 Unfavorable scenario B
Source: Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - Strategic Planning of Innovation at Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on Strategic Planning of R&D and New Business.
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 18

A Roadmapping approach allows to integrate business
scenarios with internal R&D results.
2007 Timeline 2012
Current demand
Aspect 1
Tomorrow’s demand
Demand Current demand
Aspect 2
Tomorrow’s demand
Current demand
Aspect 3
Where do we want to go?
Tomorrow’s demand
Platform 1 Function A
Function B
Products Platform 2 Function C
Function G Function I
Function E
Platform 3 Function D Function F Function H Function J
Building block B
Domain 1 Building block A
Building block C
Building block D
Which relevant technologiesblock H capabilities do we
Building and
Building block F
Domain 2 Building block E
Building block G
R&D control for competitive differentiation?
Building block I
Domain 3
results Building block J
Which additional ones do we need? Building block L
Domain 4 Building block K
Domain 5 Building block M
Needed functionalities
Own functional building blocks
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 19

A Navigation Board provides a management view
on the progress and proposes interventions.
Indicator Current Status Needed status Proposed intervention
Overall Comment 1
Status Comment 2
Key development Intervention possibility 1
A Intervention possibility 2
Key development
What should we do, if
Intervention possibility 1
Which external and internal
B Intervention possibility 2
developments are not
developments do we need to succeed in
moving in the right
Key development Intervention possibility 1
the new6business? >3
C Intervention possibility 2
direction!
(Both internal and external)
Key development Intervention possibility 1
1 <3
D Intervention possibility 2
Key development Intervention possibility 1
5 <3
E Intervention possibility 2
Need for action Monitor closely as planned
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 20

Using scenario analysis with roadmapping
is a strong way to explore and plan the
future.

Content.
1 Introduction
2 Continuous Strategic Foresight
2.1 Technology Radar
2.2 Product and Service Radar
2.3 Customer Foresight
3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 22

After three years of foresight experience in the T-Labs we
would like to share with you four lessons learned.
Four lessons learned from T-Labs
is based on a deep understanding of the need of the decision maker
A successful
Strategic engages many internal and external partners
Foresight has a strong tool that enables effective collaboration
activity… uses a balanced mix of qualitative and quantitative methods
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 23

Thank you for your interest.
Conference on Strategic Foresight Personal contact
René Rohrbeck
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin
+49 30 8353 58536 (Tel)
rene.rohrbeck@telekom.de
www.rene-rohrbeck.de
www.euroSF.org www.strategic-foresight.eu
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 24

Thank you very much for your interest!.
René Rohrbeck, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories

Further Reading.
Rohrbeck, R., J. Heuer, and H.M. Arnold. (2006) \"The Technology Radar – an
Instrument of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy\"
Technology Radar The 3rd IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and
Technology: Singapore, pp. 978-983
Paper Presentation
Rohrbeck, R. (2007) \"Technology Scouting - a case study on the
Technology Deutsche Telekom Laboratories\"
Scouting ISPIM-Asia Conference: New Delhi, India.
Paper Presentation
Rohrbeck, R., H. M. Arnold and J. Heuer (2007) \"Strategic Foresight - a case study
Strategic on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories\"
Foresight ISPIM-Asia Conference: New Delhi, India.
Paper Presentation
Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 27.05.2008 26