Integrating Foresight into
Organizations: Three
Perspectives for Making
Foresight Come Alive
Andy Hines
World Future Society
August 1, 2007

About Social
About Social Technologies
Technologies
Social Technologies is a leading
research and consulting firm
dedicated to helping
organizations understand and
shape the future of their
business.
Headquarters in Washington, DC,
with offices in London and
Shanghai.

Agenda
1. Simple Foresight Audit
– Framework
– Levels
– Responses to change (exercise)
2. Integrating Foresight into Organizational Processes
– Benefits
– Sample applications in:
• New product development
• Strategy
• Market research
3. Responding to Challenges with Foresight
– Types of change
– Responding to change as a foresight unit (exercise)

1. Simple Foresight Audit
• Framework
• Levels
• Responses to change

What Level Is Your Organization Operating At?

Typical Organizational Responses to Change
A. Denial
B. Acknowledgement, but too busy/not a priority
C. Acknowledgement, mobilization, but not sure what to do
D. Embracing the change; re-visioning the organization
E. Other _________________________________

2. Integrating Foresight into Organizational
Processes
• Benefits
• Example applications in:
– New business and new product development
– Strategy
– Market research

Benefits of Foresight
Activity Benefits
FRAMING (22%) 1. Thinking more diverse open, balanced and non-biased (9%)
2. Focusing on the right questions and problems more clearly (7%)
3. Being aware of, and influencing, assumptions and mental models
(6%)
SCANNING (16%) 4. Understanding the context, in all its complexity, through establishing
frameworks (5%)
5. Anticipating change and avoiding surprise (10%)
FORECASTING 6. Producing more creative, broader, and deeper insights (16%)
(22%) 7. Identifying a wider range of opportunities and options (5%)
VISIONING (10%) 8. Prioritizing and making better and more robust decisions (10%)
PLANNING (7%) 10. Constructing pathways from the present to the future that enable
rehearsing for the future (7%)
ACTING (23%) 10. Catalyzing action and change (7%)
11. Building alignment, commitment and confidence (14%)
12. Building a learning organization (2%)

Foresight for New Product Development
NPD/NBD
Exploration Stage Gate Process
1. Investigate Product
Concepts
2. Ideate
3. Evaluate
New Businesses
4. Communicate
Growth
&
Platforms
New Products
Generate
1. Investigate Concepts
2. Ideate
3. Evaluate
4. Communicate
Find the Growth Platforms

1. Investigate: Trends, Needs & Ideas Log
Category # Platform Trends Needs (problems & desires) Specific Ideas

2. Ideate: Concept Statement
Trends/Assumptions/Discos
Needs/Problems to Solve
Opportunities
•x
•X
•x x
•x
•x
•x x
•x
•x •x
x
•x
•X
•x x
•X
Lead Companies
•x
•x
Graphics
•x
•x
•x
•x
Market Input
X

3. Evaluate: Evaluation Matrix
Value
Likelihood - probability of technical and commercial success

Foresight for Strategy Development
Horizons of Growth
Horizon 3 – Create Viable Options
• Research projects, Funded initiatives
• Potential for growth – new ideas -> projects
• Need robust number – only a few will survive
Horizon 2 – Build Emerging Business
• New ventures taking root
• Could transform company with growth
Profit
• Potential for growth – new streams of revenue, maturing Horizon 3s
Horizon 1 – Extend and Defend Core Business
• Heart of the organization
• Majority of profit and cash flow
• Potential for growth – new channels, new customers, incremental product changes
Time (years)
Horizon 0 – Those past their prime, staying on for legacy or other reasons ????
Source : The Alchemy of Growth by Mehrdad Baghai, Stephen Coley and David White, 1999
14

Analysis
• Where is the majority of your portfolio? How balanced?
• Where does senior management spend their time? What projects
are discussed in executive sessions?
• How does investment strategy align?
• Do you let H3s become H2s or is there an immediate need for
them to be H1s?
• Do you have any H0s?
• Are you measuring the different Horizons correctly
• How do you “promote” your offerings?
15

Foresight for Market Research
Consumer Usage Themes
Time

Identifying Usage Themes
2009-2011 2012+
2006-2008
Families
Seniors
Techies
Usage Theme: Most important or dominant
consumer-driven usage behavior in a given time segment.
Looking for Themes that “cascade” or drive other segments’ behavio

Understanding and Mapping Implications
• What are major emerging needs?
• What are the emerging capabilities? How do the crossing of these
create opportunities or “sweet spots”?
• What specific products or technologies from the current portfolio are
involved?
• How will addressing these opportunities impact relevant parts of the
business?
• What disruptions (positive or negative) could alter this roadmap?

3. Responding to Challenges with
Foresight
• Types of change
• Responding to change as a foresight unit (exercise)

Types of Change

Responding to Change Second Exercise:
Sample Situation
• Your company: A television network
• Change experienced: Google reveals plan to become
the world’s leading provider of “television” programming
by 2015 by delivering over the Web
• How your leadership has responded: Acknowledgement,
mobilization, but not sure what to do
• As a foresight unit, how would you use foresight to help
the organization respond more effectively