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    1. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Foresight Methodology: an overview and more… Rafael Popper – rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk PREST - Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Bonn, Germany 2008
    2. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Introductory remarks on Foresight Methodology In both futures and foresight literatures there have been plenty of discussions about processes, generations, challenges, classifications and various ‘styles’ of forward-looking practices and methods. (See De Jouvenel, 1967; Boucher, 1977; Coates, 1985; Jungk and Müllert, 1987; Cameron et al., 1996; Bell, 1997; Glenn and Gordon, 1999; Godet, 2000, 2001; Georghiou, 2001; Masini, 2001; Miles, 2002, 2008; Cuhls, 2003; Voros, 2003, 2005; Kaivo-oja et al., 2004; Bishop et al., 2007; Barré, 2008; Popper 2008; Johnston and Sripaipan, 2008; Keenan and Miles, 2008; and Georghiou et al., 2008). Even though these and many other contributions provide a huge ‘knowledge base’ of definitions, frameworks and experiences using a wide range of real – and occasionally hypothetical – examples, up until now there has not been a systematic and organised effort to explore ‘how are foresight methods selected’ using such a large number of case studies (886 cases).
    3. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany New outline (inspired by Katy Börner´s Places & Spaces: Mapping Science) Foresight Methodology (Popper, 2008) in The Handbook of Technology Foresight An overview of: • foresight • foresight as a process • foresight methods – classifications – common practices pp. 44–88 • foresight mapping – mapping collaboration How are foresight methods selected? (Popper, 2008) in Foresight journal (Volume 10, issue 6) – foresight periodic table * • foresight methodology – foresight pyramids – mapping roadmapping pp. 62–89 • future foresight methods
    4. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Foresight is not mere fashion
    5. iFQ 2008 Evolution of Programmes/Exercises R. Popper - Germany Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s) Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s) Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi Since Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi Brazil Prospectar Delphi 1971 2000 Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others Japan 5th STA survey Delphi 1991 France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others USA Critical Technologies Others Portugal ET2000 Others New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others 1992 Germany BMFT, T 21 Others Chile TFP Chile Delphi 2001 South Korea Foresight Exercise Others Germany FUTUR Others 1993 Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi Czech Republic TF Exercise Others Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others 1994 Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others France Technology Delphi Delphi UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others 2002 1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi Denmark National TF Denmark Others Austria Delphi Austria Delphi USA NIH Roadmap USA Others 1996 China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others Japan 6th STA survey Delphi Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others 2003 Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others Spain ANEP Delphi + Others Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others 1997 Netherlands Technology Radar Others South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others Finland SITRA Foresight Others Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others 2004 France FuturRIS Others South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others France AGORA Others Germany Delphi ’98 Delphi 1998 Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others Russia Key Technologies Others New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others 2005 OPTI Technology Foresight Finland Finnsight Others Spain Delphi 1999 Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others SITRA Foresight Finland Others TF of Priority Industries 2006 China Delphi + Others Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc. Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
    6. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany What is foresight?
    7. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany What is foresight? • Broadly speaking… • Foresight is not about – forecasting by experts Prospective & • Foresight is more about Futures – sharing a vision and/or a set of objectives (for our children’s future?) – promoting trandisciplinarity research – engaging key stakeholders, including Foresight decision- and policy-makers – drawing upon and creating knowledge Policy-making Participation networks & & Planning Networking – extending the breadth and depth of the knowledge base for decision-making – organising a long term thinking process
    8. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany But what type of process?
    9. iFQ 2008 Foresight as a process R. Popper - Germany Foresight is “a process which involves intense iterative periods of open reflection, networking, consultation and discussion, leading to the joint refining of future visions and the common ownership of strategies… It is the discovery of a common space for open thinking on the future and the incubation of strategic approaches” (Cassingena Harper, 2003) A more systemic look into the process was done by Miles (2002) who outlined five complementary phases: Pre-Foresight; Recruitment; Generation; Action; and Renewal. 5 5 1 3 2
    10. iFQ 2008 ‘Sketching’ the phases of the process R. Popper - Germany 3 1 4 2 5
    11. iFQ 2008 Foresight should be carefully planned R. Popper - Germany Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Rationales Project team * Existing knowledge Advising Learning Sponsor(s) - skills is amalgamated, - Strategies - Process Objectives Partners analysed and - Policy Options - Products Orientation Sub-contractors synthesised - Recommendations Evaluation Resources Steering Group Tacit knowledge is -… - Impacts - Core team * Experts codified - Efficiency - Time - Thematic New knowledge is Transforming - Appropriateness - Money - Sectoral generated (e.g. - Networking Dissemination - Infrastructure - Regional elucidation of - Policy-making - Shared Visions - Cultural - National emerging issues, - Decision-making - Foresight Culture - Political - International creation of new -… -… Approaches Champions visions and images Time horizon - Thematic of the future, etc.) Step 5: evaluating Methodology -… Workplan International Step 4: shaping the future through - Activities Panels KNOWLEDGE strategic planning - Tasks Methodologist - Deliverables Facilitators Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the Scope Rapporteurs exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures - Context - Coverage Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues
    12. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany What methods can be used?
    13. iFQ 2008 Classifying methods by their nature R. Popper - Germany Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative Methods providing meaning Methods measuring variables and Methods which apply mathematical to events and perceptions. apply statistical analyses, using or principles to quantify subjectivity, Such interpretations tend to be generating (hopefully) reliable and rational judgements and viewpoints based on subjectivity or creativity valid data (e.g. economic indicators) of experts and commentators (i.e. often difficult to corroborate (e.g. weighting opinions) brainstorming, interviews) 1.Backcasting 20. Benchmarking 26. Cross-impact / structural analysis 2.Brainstorming 21. Bibliometrics 27. Delphi 3.Citizens panels 22. Indicators / time series analysis 28. Key / Critical technologies 4.Conferences/workshops 23. Modelling 29. Multi-criteria analysis 5.Essays /Scenario writing 24. Patent analysis 30. Polling / Voting 6.Expert panels 25. Trend extrapolation / impact 31. Quantitative scenarios / SMIC 7.Genius forecasting analysis 32. Roadmapping 8.Interviews 33. Stakeholder analysis 9.Literature review 10.Morphological analysis 11.Relevance trees /logic charts 12.Role play / Acting 13.Scanning 14.Scenario /Scenario workshops 15.Science fictioning (SF) 16.Simulation gaming 17.Surveys 18.SWOT analysis 19.Weak signals /Wildcards
    14. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Methods by Type of Approach • Exploratory – Based on what we know Today – Exploring Possible Futures – Examples: • Conventional Delphi • Conventional Scenario Workshops • Cross-impact analysis • Trend extrapolation, Etc. • Normative – Based on what we want/desire for the Future – Planning how to get there from Today – Examples: • Goals Delphi • Success Scenario workshops • Relevance trees, morphological analysis and roadmapping, etc.
    15. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany How to link methods to the ‘the process’?
    16. iFQ 2008 Linking Qualitative methods R. Popper - Germany Potential contribution of qualitative methods Foresight Phases Methods / Activities Type of method Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal 1 Backcasting ● ● ●●● ●●● ● 2 Brainstorming ●●● ●● ●●●● ●●● ●●● 3 Citizens Panels ●● ● ●●● ●●●● ●●● 4 Conferences/Workshops ●● ●● ●●● ●●● ●●● 5 Essays/Scenario Writing ●● ● ●●●● ●● ●●● 6 Expert Panels ●●● ●● ●●●● ●●● ●●● 7 Genius Forecasting ●● ● ●●●● ●● ● 8 Interviews ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●●●● 9 Literature Review (LR) ●●●● ●● ●●● ●● ●● 10 Morphological Analysis ● ● ●●● ●●● ● Qualitative 11 Relevance Trees/Logic Charts ●● ● ●●● ●●● ●●● 12 Role play/Acting ● ●● ●●● ●●● ● 13 Scanning ●●●● ●● ●●● ●●● ●● 14 Scenarios/Scenario Workshops ● ● ●●●● ●●● ●● 15 Science Fictioning (SF) ● ● ●●●● ● ● 16 Simulation Gaming ● ● ●●● ●●● ● 17 Surveys ●●● ●●● ●●●● ●●●● ● 18 SWOT Analysis ●● ● ●●●● ●●●● ●● 19 Weak Signals/Wild Cards ●● ● ●●● ●● ● Legend of symbols: little/no contribution [●], some contribution [●●], significant contribution [●●●], major contribution [●●●●]
    17. iFQ 2008 Linking Quantitative & Semi-quantitative ones R. Popper - Germany Potential contribution of quantitative and semi-quantitative methods Foresight Phases Methods / Activities Type of method Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal 20 Benchmarking ●●● ●● ●●● ●●● ●●● 21 Bibliometrics ●●● ●●● ●● ● ● 22 Indicators/Time Series Analysis (TSA) ●●● ● ●●● ●● ●● Quantitative 23 Modelling ● ● ●●● ●●● ● 24 Patent Analysis ●●● ●●● ●● ● ● 25 Trend Extrapolation/Impact Analysis ●●● ● ●●● ●● ●●● 26 Cross-impact/Structural Analysis (SA) ●● ● ●●● ●●● ●● 27 Delphi ● ●● ●●●● ●●● ●● 28 Key/Critical Technologies ●● ● ●●● ●●● ●● 29 Multi-criteria Analysis ●● ● ●●● ●●● ●● Semi- 30 Polling/Voting ●● ●● ●●●● ●●●● ●●● Quantitative 31 Quantitative Scenarios/SMIC ● ● ●●●● ● ●● 32 Roadmapping ●● ● ●● ●●●● ●● 33 Stakeholders Analysis/MACTOR ●● ●●● ●● ●●● ●● Legend of symbols: little/no contribution [●], some contribution [●●], significant contribution [●●●], major contribution [●●●●] Note: the tables (above) provide an impressionistic view of the contribution that 33 methods might make to each phase of the foresight process. The “potential contribution” is represented with bullets. For example: Backcasting may have little/no contribution [●] in the Pre-Foresight, Recruitment and Renewal Phases, whereas significant contribution [●●●] in the Generation and Action Phases
    18. iFQ 2008 But, what are the most common methods? R. Popper - Germany Pre-Foresight (scanning, expert panels, literature review...) Recruitment (co-nomination surveys…) Generation (Scenarios, Delphi, brainstorming, workshops, roadmapping…) Action (voting, polling, panels…) Renewal (interviews, expert panels, impact analysis…)
    19. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Let’s then map foresight practices!
    20. iFQ 2008 See http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/gfo_2007.pdf R. Popper - Germany EFMN: Mapping Foresight Practices in the Wold • So far, EFMN Mapping has produced a vast amount of information on foresight unprecedented in the world • The mapping has been useful to understand foresight practices > 1000 cases in Europe and other regions of the world > 2000 846 cases L0&L1 > 1600 L0 & L1 767 cases > 1400 437 cases L0 & L1 > 800 L0 & L1 100 cases 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    21. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany EFMN 2004: Building up the Mapping Database • Early mapping efforts, including indicators, protocols and lessons from EUROFORE helped to build the EFMN database 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    22. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Mapping Taxonomy (or Levels) L1 L2 • Level 0 • Level 2 – types of audiences – name, short description, short – types of sponsors comment, and the time horizon. – types of methods – countries and regions – types of outputs • Level 1 – year the exercise was created • Level 3 – duration – research areas – contact person (i.e. Frascati Manual) – name of sponsor – markets & industries – – funding executing organisation L3 (i.e. NACE Classification) – website – policy impacts – number of participants – other impacts – territorial scope – objectives – results and limitations 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    23. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany EFMN 2006: Increasing the number of cases • 767 cases in L2 & L3 • Great progress in mapping • Key lessons: – Need for quality control of the data – Need for sophisticated analysis 767 437 > 1400 L0 & L1 > 800 L0 & L1 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    24. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany 2007 Report: Mapping European Foresight http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/gfo_2007.pdf 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    25. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany 2007 Report: Mapping Country-level Foresight ge Top 10 M e thods Te rritorial s cope uk Top 10 M e thods Te rr itorial s cope National 10 Literature Review 50 National 97 Literature Review 20 Transborder 6 Transborder 1 Expert Panels 49 Other methods 15 Sub-national 19 Sub-national 18 Supra national 2 Scenarios 49 Supra national 3 Scenarios 14 Europe 2 Questionnaire / Survey 25 Europe 1 Expert Panels 13 0 20 40 Futures Workshops 24 0 60 120 Delphi 12 Megatrend A nalysis 20 Brainstorming 9 Num be r of participants Num be r of participants Trend Extrapolation 20 Futures Workshops 8 > 500 7 > 500 1 Brainstorming 16 Questionnaire / Survey 6 201-500 3 201-500 6 Interview s 16 Trend Extrapolation 6 51-200 7 51-200 21 < 50 12 Essays 14 < 50 36 Citizens Panels 4 0 20 40 0 60 120 0 60 120 0 20 40 Com m on outputs Targe t audie nce Com m on outputs Targe t audie nce Policy Recommendations 27 Govt A gencies / Depts 35 Policy Recommendations 74 Govt A gencies / Depts 104 A nalysis of Trends & Drivers 11 Research Community 17 A nalysis of Trends & Drivers 52 Research Community 64 Scenarios 12 Firms 21 Scenarios 39 Firms 61 Research & Other Priorities 6 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 8 Research & Other Priorities 40 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 38 Lists of Key Technologies 3 Other target audiences 6 Lists of Key Technologies 10 Other target audiences 15 Forecasts 10 NGOs 5 Forecasts 18 NGOs 14 Technology Roadmaps 2 Trades Unions 7 Technology Roadmaps 2 Trades Unions 10 Others 2 Intermediary organizations 5 Others 11 Intermediary organizations 4 0 20 40 0 20 40 0 60 120 0 60 120 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    26. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany 2008 Analysis: Mapping collaboration between Countries 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    27. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany 2008 Analysis: “Spiky Foresight” High GERD > 2.4% Medium Low GERD < 1.5% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    28. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Towards the European Foresight ‘Periodic Table’? at Top 10 Me thods Ter r itor ial sco pe be Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope Delphi 6 National 6 Literature Review 11 National 7 Transborder 2 Transborder 2 Expert Panels 6 Futures Workshops 8 Sub-national 1 Sub-national 5 Futures Workshops 6 Supra national Other methods 8 Supra national 2 Literature Review 6 Europe 1 Expert Panels 7 Europe 1 Other methods 5 0 5 10 Scenarios 7 0 8.5 17 Sc enarios 5 Environmental Scanning 7 Num be r o f p ar ticipants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Brainstorming 3 Brainstorming 5 > 500 1 > 500 2 SWOT A naly sis 3 Delphi 5 201-500 1 201-500 1 Env ironmental Scanning 2 Interview s 4 51-200 2 51-200 Interview s 2 < 50 5 Key Technologies 4 < 50 7 0 5 10 0 5 10 0 8.5 17 0 8.5 17 Com m on outputs Targe t audie nce Com m on outputs Tar get audience Policy Recommendations 3 Govt A gencies / Depts 10 Policy Recommendations 1 Govt A gencies / Depts 15 A nalysis of Trends & Drivers 2 Research Community 6 Analy sis of Trends & Drivers 8 Research Community 9 Scenarios 2 Firms 5 Scenarios 4 Firms 7 Research & Other Priorities 1 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 3 Res earc h & Other Priorities 9 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 4 Lists of Key Technologies 2 Other target audiences 3 Lists of Key Technologies Other target audiences 1 Forecasts 1 NGOs 2 Forecasts 3 NGOs 2 Technology Roadmaps 1 Trades Unions 2 Technology Roadmaps 2 Trades Unions 1 Others Intermediary organizations Others 6 Intermediary organizations 2 0 5 10 0 5 10 0 8.5 17 0 8.5 17 bg Top 10 M ethods Te rr itor ial sco pe cy Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope cz Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope dk Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope ee Te rr ito rial s cope fi Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope Top 10 M ethods SWOT A nalysis 2 National 2 National 1 Expert Panels 4 National 3 Futures Workshops 7 National 13 National 4 Expert Panels 23 National 25 Transborder 1 Delphi 1 Transborder Transborder 2 Transborder 1 Brainstorming 4 Transborder 2 Transborder 2 Scenarios 2 SWOT A nalysis 4 Ex pert Panels 6 Literature Review 17 Sub-national Expert Panels 1 Sub-national Sub-national 0 Sub-national Futures Workshops 3 Sub-national Sub-national 4 Expert Panels 2 Supra national Supra national Brainstorming 3 Supra national Literature Rev iew 6 Supra national Supra national Futures Workshops 15 Supra national 2 Other methods 1 Literature Review 3 Environmental Scanning 1 Europe Europe Literature Review 3 Europe 0 Key Technologies 5 Europe 2 Europe Sc enarios 10 Europe 2 n/a Other methods 3 Delphi 1 0 1.5 3 0 1 Other methods 3 0 2.5 5 Scenarios 5 0 9 18 0 3 6 Other methods 8 0 17.5 35 n/a Scenarios 3 Brainstorming 1 Scenarios 3 Technology Roadmapping 4 Delphi 7 Nu m b er of par ticip ants n/a Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Delphi 2 Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants n/a Key Technologies 2 Delphi 2 Brainstorming 4 > 500 n/a > 500 > 500 > 500 Expert Panels 2 > 500 > 500 1 n/a Citiz ens Panels 1 Environmental Sc anning 2 SWOT A naly sis 4 201-500 1 n/a 201-500 201-500 3 201-500 2 Ques tionnaire / Survey 2 201-500 1 201-500 1 n/a 51-200 Delphi 1 Interview s 2 Interview s 3 51-200 n/a 51-200 1 51-200 1 SWOT A nalysis 2 51-200 51-200 1 n/a < 50 1 < 50 1 Environmental Scanning 1 < 50 1 Other methods 2 < 50 5 < 50 2 Key Technologies 2 < 50 8 n/a Citizens Panels 1 0 1.5 3 0 1.5 3 0 1 0 2.5 5 0 2.5 5 0 9 18 0 9 18 0 3 6 0 17.5 35 0 17.5 35 0 1 0 3 6 Com m on outputs Targ et aud ien ce Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar get audience Policy Recommendations 2 Govt Agencies / Depts 3 Policy Recommendations 1 Govt A gencies / Depts 1 Policy Recommendations 3 Govt A gencies / Depts 5 Policy Recommendations 14 Govt A gencies / Depts 18 Policy Recommendations 4 Govt A gencies / Depts 6 Policy Recommendations 19 Govt A gencies / Depts 33 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers Res earch Community 3 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 1 Research Community 1 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 1 Research Community 4 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 10 Research Community 16 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 2 Research Community 3 Analy sis of Trends & Drivers 17 Research Community 25 Scenarios 1 Firms 1 Scenarios 1 Firms Scenarios 1 Firms 3 Scenarios 6 Firms 12 Scenarios 3 Firms 2 Scenarios 5 Firms 21 Research & Other Priorities Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. Research & Other Priorities Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. Research & Other Priorities 1 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 1 Research & Other Priorities 12 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. Research & Other Priorities 1 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 1 Res earc h & Other Priorities 12 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 11 Lists of Key Technologies Other target audiences 1 Lists of Key Technologies Other target audiences Lists of Key Technologies 1 Other target audiences 2 Lists of Key Technologies 4 Other target audiences 1 Lists of Key Technologies Other target audiences 2 Lists of Key Technologies 2 Other target audiences 3 Forecasts NGOs 1 Forecasts NGOs Forecasts 1 NGOs 1 Forecasts 2 NGOs Forecasts 2 NGOs 1 Forecasts 2 NGOs 3 Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions 1 Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions 2 Technology Roadmaps 8 Trades Unions Technology Roadmaps 0 Trades Unions 2 Technology Roadmaps 2 Trades Unions 3 Others Intermediary organizations Others 1 Intermediary organizations Others Intermediary organizations 1 Others Intermediary organizations Others Intermediary organizations 1 Others 1 Intermediary organizations 2 0 1.5 3 0 1.5 3 0 1 0 1 0 2.5 5 0 2.5 5 0 9 18 0 9 18 0 3 6 0 3 6 0 17.5 35 0 17.5 35 fr Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope ge Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope gr Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope hu Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope ie Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope it Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope lv Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope lu Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope mt Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope Scenarios 24 National 32 National 10 Brainstorming 5 National 5 Brainstorming 2 National 1 National 5 Literature Review 7 National 2 Backcasting 1 National 1 Environmental Scanning 2 National 1 Brainstorming 3 National 3 Transborder 1 Literature Review 20 Transborder 6 Transborder 2 Transborder 1 Expert Panels 3 Transborder Transborder Transborder Transborder 1 Transborder Literature Review 21 Expert Panels 5 Delphi 2 Key Technologies 5 Brainstorming 1 Expert Panels 2 Expert Panels 3 Sub-national 5 Other methods 15 Sub-national 19 Sub-national Sub-national Scenarios 3 Sub-national 1 Sub-national 3 Sub-national Sub-national Sub-national Expert Panels 13 Supra national 4 Supra national 2 Sc enarios 5 Supra national Literature Review 2 Supra national Supra national Brainstorming 4 Supra national 1 Delphi 1 Supra national Literature Review 2 Supra national 2 Scenarios 3 Supra national Scenarios 14 Literature Review 2 Trend Extrapolation 12 Europe 2 Europe 2 Delphi 3 Europe 1 Scenarios 2 Europe Europe 1 Other methods 4 Europe 2 Environmental Scanning 1 Europe Other methods 2 Europe SWOT A nalysis 3 Europe Expert Panels 13 Megatrend A nalysis 2 Other methods 10 0 22 44 0 20 40 Key Technologies 3 0 4 8 Citiz ens Panels 1 0 1 2 0 3.5 7 Interview s 2 0 4 8 Expert Panels 1 0 1 Brainstorming 1 0 2 4 Literature Review 2 0 1.5 3 Delphi 12 Ques tionnaire / Survey 2 Brainstorming 8 Literature Review 3 Environmental Scanning 1 Sc enarios 2 Futures Workshops 1 Citiz ens Panels 1 Futures Workshops 1 Nu m b er of par ticip ants Brainstorming 9 Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Interview s 1 Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Megatrend A nalysis 8 SWOT A naly sis 3 Expert Panels 1 SWOT A naly sis 2 Literature Review 1 Delphi 1 Modelling and simulation 1 > 500 4 Futures Workshops 8 > 500 7 > 500 2 > 500 1 Other methods 1 > 500 > 500 > 500 > 500 > 500 Futures Workshops 7 Essays 2 Futures Workshops 1 Delphi 1 Megatrend A nalysis 1 Key Technologies 1 Other methods 1 201-500 3 Ques tionnaire / Survey 6 201-500 3 201-500 2 201-500 1 SWOT A nalysis 1 201-500 201-500 201-500 201-500 2 201-500 Interview s 5 51-200 3 51-200 7 Futures Workshops 2 51-200 Other methods 1 51-200 51-200 Expert Panels 1 51-200 4 Multi-criteria A nalysis 1 51-200 1 Scenarios 1 51-200 1 Stakeholder Mapping 1 51-200 1 Trend Extrapolation 6 Trend Extrapolation 1 Key Technologies 5 < 50 9 < 50 12 Citizens Panels 1 < 50 2 SWOT A nalysis 1 < 50 < 50 4 Futures Workshops 1 < 50 2 Stakeholder Mapping 1 < 50 SWOT A nalysis 1 < 50 1 n/a < 50 2 Citizens Panels 4 n/a 0 22 44 0 22 44 0 20 40 0 4 8 0 4 8 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 3.5 7 0 4 8 0 4 8 0 1 0 1 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 1.5 3 0 1.5 3 0 20 40 0 3.5 7 Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar get audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar get audience Policy Recommendations 30 Govt A gencies / Depts 40 Policy Recommendations 27 Govt A gencies / Depts 35 Policy Recommendations 7 Govt A gencies / Depts 8 Policy Recommendations 1 Govt A gencies / Depts 2 Policy Recommendations 5 Govt A gencies / Depts 7 Policy Recommendations 4 Govt A gencies / Depts 8 Policy Recommendations 1 Govt A gencies / Depts 1 Policy Recommendations 2 Govt A gencies / Depts 4 Policy Recommendations 3 Govt A gencies / Depts 3 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 24 Research Community 21 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 11 Research Community 17 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 5 Research Community 5 Analy sis of Trends & Drivers 1 Research Community 1 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 5 Research Community 4 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 2 Research Community 6 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 1 Research Community 1 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 1 Research Community 2 Analy sis of Trends & Drivers 1 Research Community 2 Scenarios 21 Firms 16 Scenarios 12 Firms 21 Scenarios 6 Firms 4 Scenarios 1 Firms 2 Scenarios 3 Firms 3 Scenarios Firms 6 Scenarios Firms 1 Scenarios 2 Firms 3 Scenarios 3 Firms 1 Research & Other Priorities 13 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 7 Research & Other Priorities 6 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 8 Research & Other Priorities 5 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 2 Res earc h & Other Priorities Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 1 Research & Other Priorities 2 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 2 Research & Other Priorities 1 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 3 Research & Other Priorities 1 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. Research & Other Priorities Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 1 Res earc h & Other Priorities Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 2 Lists of Key Technologies 5 Other target audiences 7 Lists of Key Technologies 3 Other target audiences 6 Lists of Key Technologies 3 Other target audiences 1 Lists of Key Technologies Other target audiences 2 Lists of Key Technologies 2 Other target audiences Lists of Key Technologies 1 Other target audiences 1 Lists of Key Technologies Other target audiences Lists of Key Technologies Other target audiences 1 Lists of Key Technologies Other target audiences 1 Forecasts 11 NGOs 13 Forecasts 10 NGOs 5 Forecasts 1 NGOs 3 Forecasts 1 NGOs Forecasts 1 NGOs Forecasts NGOs 1 Forecasts NGOs 1 Forecasts 2 NGOs Forecasts NGOs 2 Technology Roadmaps 6 Trades Unions 11 Technology Roadmaps 2 Trades Unions 7 Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions 0 Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions 2 Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions 1 Technology Roadmaps 1 Trades Unions Others 6 Intermediary organizations 5 Others 2 Intermediary organizations 5 Others Intermediary organizations 4 Others Intermediary organizations 1 Others Intermediary organizations Others 1 Intermediary organizations 1 Others Intermediary organizations Others Intermediary organizations 1 Others Intermediary organizations 0 22 44 0 22 44 0 20 40 0 20 40 0 4 8 0 4 8 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 3.5 7 0 3.5 7 0 4 8 0 4 8 0 1 0 1 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 1.5 3 0 1.5 3 nl Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope pl Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope pt Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope ro Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope sk Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope sl Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope sp Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope se Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope uk Top 10 M ethods Te rr ito rial s cope National 96 Literature Review 4 National 2 Literature Review 3 National 2 Literature Review 2 National 3 Essays 1 National 2 Delphi 3 National 3 Expert Panels 29 National 27 Ex pert Panels 3 National 2 Literature Review 50 National 97 Literature Review 104 Transborder 3 Transborder 1 Transborder Transborder 1 Transborder Transborder 1 Transborder 1 Transborder 2 Transborder 1 SWOT A nalysis 4 Sc enarios 3 Scenarios 2 Literature Review 1 Other methods 3 Literature Review 28 Literature Rev iew 3 Expert Panels 49 Expert Panels 70 Sub-national 1 Sub-national 1 Sub-national Sub-national Sub-national Sub-national 6 Sub-national 1 Sub-national 18 Sub-national 6 Brainstorming 2 Supra national Futures Workshops 2 Supra national 1 SWOT A nalysis 2 Supra national Megatrend A nalysis 1 Supra national Brainstorming 2 Supra national Delphi 24 Supra national 1 Futures Workshops 2 Supra national 2 Scenarios 49 Supra national 3 Scenarios 67 Supra national 4 Europe 1 Expert Panels 2 Europe Interview s 2 Europe 1 Delphi 1 Europe n/a Europe Literature Review 2 Europe Key Technologies 22 Europe 2 Key Technologies 2 Europe 2 Ques tionnaire / Survey 25 Europe 1 Trend Extrapolation 40 Other methods 28 0 74 148 Other methods 2 0 5 10 Other methods 2 0 2.5 5 Environmental Scanning 1 0 2 4 n/a 0 1 2 Scenarios 2 0 2 4 Brainstorming 16 0 18.5 37 Scenarios 2 0 4.5 9 Futures Workshops 24 0 60 120 Interview s Scenarios 2 SWOT A naly sis 2 Expert Panels 1 n/a Citiz ens Panels 1 Megatrend A nalysis 16 SWOT A nalysis 2 Megatrend A nalysis 20 22 Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Nu m b er of par ticip ants Ques tionnaire / Survey 9 Ques tionnaire / Survey 12 Citiz ens Panels 1 Backcasting 1 Interview s 1 n/a Environmental Scanning 1 Technology Roadmapping 2 Trend Extrapolation 20 > 500 > 500 > 500 1 > 500 > 500 n/a > 500 > 500 1 > 500 > 500 1 Delphi 1 Brainstorming 1 Questionnaire / Surv ey 1 n/a Expert Panels 1 Scenarios 7 Interview s 1 Brainstorming 16 Futures Workshops 11 201-500 2 201-500 201-500 201-500 n/a 201-500 2 201-500 1 201-500 1 201-500 6 201-500 3 Environmental Scanning 1 Essays 1 Trend Extrapolation 1 n/a Futures Workshops 1 Interview s 5 Questionnaire / Survey 1 Interview s 16 Backcasting 10 51-200 10 51-200 51-200 51-200 51-200 n/a 51-200 1 51-200 9 51-200 1 51-200 21 Key Technologies 1 < 50 1 Expert Panels 1 < 50 3 n/a < 50 1 n/a < 50 n/a Key Technologies 1 < 50 1 SWOT A nalysis 4 < 50 20 n/a < 50 3 Essays 14 < 50 36 Brainstorming 7 < 50 12 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 2.5 5 0 2.5 5 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 18.5 37 0 18.5 37 0 4.5 9 0 4.5 9 0 60 120 0 60 120 0 74 148 0 74 148 Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar get audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar ge t audience Com m on outputs Tar get audience Com m on outputs Policy Recommendations 4 Govt A gencies / Depts 4 Policy Recommendations 5 Govt A gencies / Depts 5 Policy Recommendations 3 Govt A gencies / Depts 4 Policy Recommendations 1 Govt A gencies / Depts 2 Policy Recommendations 3 Govt A gencies / Depts 4 Policy Recommendations 29 Govt A gencies / Depts 35 Policy Recommendations 9 Govt A gencies / Depts 9 Policy Recommendations 74 Govt A gencies / Depts 104 Policy Recommendations 104 Govt A gencies / Depts 137 Research Community 67 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 3 Research Community 2 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 5 Research Community 1 Analy sis of Trends & Drivers 1 Research Community 2 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 1 Research Community 1 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 2 Research Community 3 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 27 Research Community 27 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 6 Research Community 7 Analy sis of Trends & Drivers 52 Research Community 64 Analysis of Trends & Driv ers 76 Scenarios 1 Firms 3 Scenarios 1 Firms 2 Scenarios 1 Firms 1 Scenarios Firms 1 Scenarios 1 Firms 4 Scenarios 4 Firms 29 Scenarios 3 Firms 5 Scenarios 39 Firms 61 Scenarios 54 Firms 47 Research & Other Priorities 2 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 3 Research & Other Priorities 1 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 2 Res earc h & Other Priorities 1 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. Research & Other Priorities 1 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. Research & Other Priorities 0 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 1 Research & Other Priorities 7 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 19 Research & Other Priorities 6 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 2 Res earc h & Other Priorities 40 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 38 Research & Other Priorities 10 Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed. 7 Lists of Key Technologies 1 Other target audiences 1 Lists of Key Technologies Other target audiences 1 Lists of Key Technologies Other target audiences Lists of Key Technologies Other target audiences 1 Lists of Key Technologies 2 Other target audiences 1 Lists of Key Technologies 25 Other target audiences 3 Lists of Key Technologies 4 Other target audiences 1 Lists of Key Technologies 10 Other target audiences 15 Lists of Key Technologies 4 Other target audiences 7 Forecasts 1 NGOs Forecasts NGOs Forecasts 1 NGOs Forecasts NGOs Forecasts 1 NGOs Forecasts 0 NGOs 7 Forecasts 0 NGOs Forecasts 18 NGOs 14 Forecasts 21 NGOs 2 Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions 1 Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions 1 Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions 1 Technology Roadmaps Trades Unions Technology Roadmaps 0 Trades Unions Technology Roadmaps 0 Trades Unions 12 Technology Roadmaps 4 Trades Unions 2 Technology Roadmaps 2 Trades Unions 10 Technology Roadmaps 7 Trades Unions 4 Others 1 Intermediary organizations 1 Others Intermediary organizations 1 Others Intermediary organizations Others Intermediary organizations Others 0 Intermediary organizations 1 Others 1 Intermediary organizations 2 Others 0 Intermediary organizations Others 11 Intermediary organizations 4 Others 6 Intermediary organizations 2 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 2.5 5 0 2.5 5 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 18.5 37 0 18.5 37 0 4.5 9 0 4.5 9 0 60 120 0 60 120 0 74 148 0 74 148 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    29. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Now that we have data… Can we answer some questions?
    30. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Foresight, Volume 10, issue 6: How are foresight methods selected? • First argument – methods are chosen based on their ‘‘intrinsic attributes’’ • their nature – Qualitative – Quantitative – Semi-quantitative • their capabilities, i.e. the ability to gather or process information based on: – Evidence – Expertise – Interaction – Creativity • Second argument – methods are chosen based on fundamental elements and conditions influencing the foresight process; in other words, foresight process needs matter.
    31. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Two questions related to the attributes of methods: • How is selection influenced by the nature of methods? • How is selection influenced by the capabilities of methods? Nine questions related to the elements of foresight processes: 3. How is selection influenced by the Geo-R&D context? 4. How is selection influenced by the Domain coverage? 5. How is selection influenced by the Territorial scale? 6. How is selection influenced by the Time horizon? 7. How is selection influenced by the Sponsorship? 8. How is selection influenced by the Target groups? 9. How is selection influenced by the Participation scale? 10.How is selection influenced by the Codified outputs? 11.How is selection influenced by the Methods mix?
    32. iFQ 2008 Is selection influenced by the nature? 1 R. Popper - Germany Qualitative vs. Quantitative • Suppose that a particular event E gives an empirical plot E (filled line). y • Suppose we have two theories, t1 and t2, leading to the plots g1 and g2, respectively g1 (dotted lines) – plot g1 fits better quantitatively E – plot g2 has the same shape and appearance. The difference between g2 ∫ predictions and observations in │E - g1│ Interval x is smaller than that of ∫│E – g2│ • However, as René Thom (1975) points out, the theorist would be likely to retain t2 rather than t1 even at the expense of a greater quantitative error. • The rationale would be that t2 must be a better clue to the underlying mechanisms of E than the quantitatively more “exact” t1.
    33. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Popper (2008) Yes, it seems so!
    34. iFQ 2008 Is selection influenced by the source of knowledge? 2 R. Popper - Germany Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Rationales Project team * Existing knowledge Advising Learning Methods relying heavily on the The Foresight Sponsor(s) - skills is amalgamated, - Strategies - Process inventiveness and ingenuity of Objectives Partners analysed and - Policy Options - Products Diamond Orientation Sub-contractors synthesised very skilled individuals - Recommendations Evaluation Resources Steering Group Tacit knowledge is -… - Impacts - Core team * Experts codified - Efficiency - Time - Thematic New knowledge is Transforming - Appropriateness Methods relying - Sectoral Methods - Money generated (e.g. - Networking Dissemination relying - heavily on the tacit Regional Infrastructure - elucidation of - Policy-making - Shared Visions knowledge of people - Cultural - National emerging issues, - Decision-making heavily on - Foresight Culture - Political privileged - International with creation of new -… -… the Approaches relevantChampions access to visions and images participation Time horizon or with Thematic information - of the future, etc.) Step 5: evaluating and shared accumulated - … Methodology views of Workplan knowledge International Step 4: shaping the future through experts and - Activities Panels KNOWLEDGE strategic planning non-experts - Tasks Methodologist - Deliverables Facilitators Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the Scope Rapporteurs exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures - Context - Methods relying heavily mobilising Coverage Step 2: and engaging key stakeholders (2008) R. Popper on codified information, Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues data, indicators, etc.
    35. iFQ 2008 Is selection influenced by the source of knowledge? R. Popper - Germany Yes (even if unintentionally!) Popper (2008) On “average” foresight studies use from 5 to 6 methods
    36. iFQ 2008 Is selection influenced by key elements of the Process? R. Popper - Germany Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Fundamental Elements of a Foresight Process Let us focus on the 10 methods mix Methods Mix geo-R&D target 3 context 8 groups 11 codified outputs domain participation 4 coverage 9 scale COMMITMENT & INTELLIGENCE & TRANSFORMATION WISDOM territorial KNOWLEDGE & 5 scale SHARED VISION planning evaluative & approaches ENGAGEMENT & prospective decision-making 6 time horizon INTERACTION approaches approaches Step 5: learning participative & Step 4: shaping the future through 7 sponsorship networking strategic planning approaches Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the ASPIRATION exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures Step 2: mobilising and engaging key players Step 1: scoping the objectives and activities of the exercise
    37. iFQ 2008 Is selection influenced by the ‘methods mix’? R. Popper - Germany Mapping Methods Combinations Frequency of Popper (2008) combinations L (or blank) = below 19% M = 20-39% H = 40-59% VH = above 60%
    38. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Visualising the “Methods Mix” Frequency of Popper (2008) combinations L (or blank) = below 19% M = 20-39% H = 40-59% VH = above 60% Popper (2008)
    39. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Mapping methods used with Roadmapping Frequency of Popper (2008) combinations L (or blank) = below 19% M = 20-39% H = 40-59% VH = above 60% Popper (2008) Popper (2008)
    40. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany How to design a foresight methodology?
    41. iFQ 2008 The Foresight Diamond R. Popper - Germany Let us explore 2 demo cases with 6 methods R. Popper (2008) http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/Bookentry_Main.lasso?id=3977
    42. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Methodology X (Forward) Evidence + Broad Expertise Methodology X (Forward) Scanning Delphi Delphi Wild Cards Large-scale exploratory study assessing the Citizen panel likeliness of occurrence and possible impacts of main issues highlighted by the scanning activity. Expert panel Detailed analysis of main issues Scanning around a particular sector/theme of study (sub-contracted). SWOT
    43. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Methodology X (Forward) Evidence + Broad Expertise Methodology X + Wild Creativity (Forward) Wild cards Scanning Delphi Delphi Wild Cards Workshop-type activity aimed at identifying Citizen panel possible events which may challenge the occurrence of ‘highly probable’ situations. Expert panel Scanning SWOT
    44. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Methodology X (Forward) Evidence + Broad Expertise Methodology X + Wild Creativity (Forward) Wild cards + Interaction Scanning Delphi Delphi Citizen Panel Wild Cards Conference-type activity aimed at identifying major Citizen panel public concerns on critical issues. Expert panel Scanning SWOT
    45. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Methodology X (Forward) Evidence + Broad Expertise Methodology X + Wild Creativity (Forward) Wild cards + Interaction + Scanning Local Expertise Delphi Delphi Citizen Panel Wild Cards Expert Panel Citizen panel Reduced group of key stakeholders looking at future implications of main findings. Expert panel Scanning SWOT
    46. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Methodology X (Forward) Evidence + Broad Expertise Methodology X + Wild Creativity (Forward) Wild cards + Interaction + Scanning Local Expertise + Strategic Creativity Delphi SWOT Delphi Citizen Panel Wild Cards Expert Panel Internal activity (possibly desk-work) aimed at Citizen panel synthesising outcomes in terms of current strengths and weaknesses as well as future opportunities and threats. Expert panel Scanning SWOT
    47. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany What if we combine the same six methods the other way around?
    48. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Methodology X (Backward) Strategic Creativity + Local Expertise Methodology X (Backward) SWOT SWOT Expert panels Expert Panels Citizen panels Groups of experts looking at future Wild Cards implications of SWOT findings and clustering main issues into broader dimensions, such as social, technological, economic, etc. Delphi Large-scale activity (e.g. workshop) aimed at identifying strengths, weaknesses, Scanning opportunities and threats related to a sector / theme / technology / etc.
    49. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Methodology X (Backward) Strategic Creativity + Local Expertise Methodology X + (Backward) Interaction SWOT SWOT Expert panels Citizen Panels Expert Panels Citizen panels Regional task forces contextualising main Wild Cards issues and evaluating public acceptance. Delphi Scanning
    50. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Methodology X (Backward) Strategic Creativity + Local Expertise Methodology X + Wild cards (Backward) Interaction + Wild Creativity SWOT SWOT Expert panels Citizen Panels Expert Panels Citizen panels Wild Cards internal activity aimed at identifying disruptive events and situations. Delphi Scanning
    51. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Methodology X (Backward) Strategic Creativity + Local Expertise Methodology X + Wild cards (Backward) Interaction + Wild Creativity + SWOT Broad Expertise SWOT Expert panels Delphi Citizen Panels Expert Panels Citizen panels Wild Cards Large-scale normative study aimed at formulating policy recommendations. Delphi Scanning
    52. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Methodology X (Backward) Strategic Creativity + Local Expertise Methodology X + Wild cards (Backward) Interaction + Wild Creativity + SWOT Broad Expertise + SWOT Evidence Expert panels Delphi Citizen Panels Expert Panels Citizen panels Internal activity aimed at identifying the success or failure of similar policy recommendations being implemented in comparable contexts, and Wild Cards better informing decision-making. Delphi Scanning Scanning
    53. iFQ 2008 There are many methodology options, indeed! R. Popper - Germany 9 methods 8 methods 7 methods Scenario writing Scenario writing Scenario writing Backcasting Scenario workshops Brainstorming Roadmapping SWOT Roadmapping SWOT Delphi Workshops Expert panels Workshops Workshops Expert panel Workshops Interviews Extrapolation Extrapolation Benchmarking Extrapolation Benchmarking Scanning Literature review 8 methods 6 methods Wild cards Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Delphi Survey Brainstorming vs. Expert Panels Delphi SWOT Citizen Panels ? Benchmarking Scanning Literature review
    54. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany What about the future foresight methodologies?
    55. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany We need more Science Fictioning (SF) in Foresight • Dealing with stories assuming that possible events which have not yet materialised have taken place, usually at some point in the future, and elaborates on the consequences of this. – it is quite common to prepare brief vignettes using SF-like techniques to illustrate one or other point of the imagined future world. – Such vignettes generally lack narrative drive, but may have considerable illustrative force. • Commercial SF is often used, mostly informally, as a source of inspiration by people thinking about the future. • The main challenge – locating the high-quality SF • see also Livingstone, 1971, 1978; Miles, 1993; Steinmüller, 1997
    56. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany We need research on Wild Cards & Weak Signals (WI-WE) • Usually carried out by small groups of highly skilled people capable of combining expertise, examining data and creative thinking. • The search for weak signals may be undertaken as part of the process of scanning. It involves the identification of “not necessarily important things” which do not seem to have a strong impact in the present but which could be the trigger for major events in the future (e.g. changes in public attitudes to one thing or another, an emerging pattern of concern about emerging health problems). Finding weak signals is one of the most challenging tasks in futures research and their analysis often leads to the identification of wild cards. • Wildcards are surprising and unexpected events with low probability of occurrence but with very high impact (e.g. the 2001 attack on the World Trade Centre on September 11, sudden shifts in the dominance of nations or political ideologies, major disasters in environmental or technological systems). These are usually identified by such means as brainstorming, science fictioning and genius forecasting. It has been suggested that gaming and role playing may encourage participants to think of novel patterns of behaviour and responses (see also Ansoff, 1975; Rockfellow, 1994; Petersen, 1999; Cornish, 2003; Mendonca et al., 2004; Steinmüller, 2004; Hiltunen, 2006; Ilmola and Kuusi, 2006)
    57. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany We need new ways of interconnecting knowledge interconnecting Knowledge for the early identification of issues, events and developments (i.e. wild cards & associated weak signals) shaping and shaking the future of science, technology and innovation (STI) in the European Research Area (ERA)
    58. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany www.iknowfutures.com WI-WE research should look at complexity & other theories planned or unplanned planned or unplanned issue or event (WI-WE) single or multiple impacts Social Social Demographic Technological Demographic Technological Values Values Economic Economic (Cultural/Ethical) (Cultural/Ethical) Environmental Political Environmental Political
    59. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany www.iknowfutures.com iKnow WI-WE mapping framework Multi iKnow Framework Layer WI-T0 WI-T1 WE Changing Transforming Creating WI-1a WI-1at 1 relations systems systems WI-1b WI-1bt WI-1c WI-1ct P P P WI-2a WI-2at 2 WI-2b WI-2bt WI-1ct WI-1bt WI-1at WI-2c WI-2ct WI-3a WI-3at P P 3 WI-3b WI-3bt y low WI-3c WI-3ct ver ‘Perceived Probability’ e Surprising on WI-1c WI-1b WI-1a nt yn appearance e ll ca pm cti lo pr a Rapid ve WI-2c WI-2b WI-2a development De of pe Legend WI-3c WI-3b WI-3a Gradual Ty WI Wild Card development Weak Signal Disruption Type of Impact P Policy
    60. iFQ 2008 Final remarks (1/3) R. Popper - Germany • There is no “ideal” methodological framework providing the “best” combination of methods. • There is no “ideal” number of methods to be used in a project • So, the methodology must be chosen after objectives are defined and not the other way around • The selection of methods may be affected by resources, such as: – project budget – availability of expertise – political support – technological and physical infrastructure, and – time. • Having valuable human resources is essential and although such people do not necessarily need to be foresight specialists, they will often require intensive training courses in order to build internal capacities and know-how.
    61. iFQ 2008 Final remarks (2/3) R. Popper - Germany We need more and improved prospective analysis • Scanning (with better use of web-based tools). – E.g. advanced data and text mining tools to analyse documents; – E.g. statistical aids for network/cluster analysis and visualisation structures; – co-word and co-citation methods (for instance, to provide guidance as to new clusters of ideas in scientific areas). • Modelling (using econometric analysis and system dynamics). Computer tools are employed to create and visualise a large set of scenarios, drawing on different assumptions about how the world • Roadmapping (with more sophisticated computer aids to organise and visualise the process and its results) • Expert opinion tools – such as Delphi – drawing upon computers and networking, e.g. web-based questionnaire surveys and more discursive approaches. • Expert systems – to guide practitioners and managers through the process of carrying out foresight – from decision support for managing the foresight process, to aids for application of specific techniques.
    62. iFQ 2008 Final remarks (3/3) R. Popper - Germany We need more than interconnection of knowledge Wisdom But, we also need interconnection of skills
    63. iFQ 2008 R. Popper - Germany Thank you! rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk

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