Corporate Decision-Making

World Future 2009

Corporate Decision Making: Decision-Making: Is it “Future-Proof”? World Future Society Chicago Hilt Chi Hilton, J l 18 2009 July 18, Download slides: http://www.jaygary.com/corporate.pdf

Corporate Decision-Making: Presenters: • Dr. JAY GARY - Assistant Professor at Regent University, director of Foresight programs http://www regent edu/global http://www.regent.edu/global • MARY BETH MCEUEN- Vice President, Organization & People Potential Maritz Potential, Maritz, http://www.maritz.com • DONALD HEATHFIELD - the inventor of the Future Map concept and company CEO http://www.futuremap.com/

Abstract Financial crisis, recession and uncertain economic environment are testing the abilities of management t biliti f t teams t foresee, to f prepare and lead. Maintaining the commitment of senior management to “strategic conversation” remains a continuous challenge. How can enterprises get more value from future- future focused work? How can they put “future” in the center of decision-making processes? H ? How can th b ild systems they build t that link future-related activities to core business processes, and bring tangible and immediate benefits to stakeholders across the enterprise.

Dr. Corné Bekker é • MBA • Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight • Master f Organizational Leadership M t of O i ti lL d hi • Doctor of Strategic Leadership • PhD in Organizational Leadership http://www.regent.edu/global

Dr. Corné Bekker é Foresight is not about better predictions, but better decisions!

Better Decisions through Foresight Pfohl, R. (2008, August 10, 2008). Anticipatory leadership: The role of foresight in navigating the future, DSL, Regent University

STRAT Survey 1. Fill in the survey based on your y management team. 2. “What does this tell me about my team’s decision d i i making?” ki ?”

Corporate Decision-Making: Questions: • How can enterprises get more value from future-focused work? • How can enterprises put the “future” in the center of decision-making processes? • How can enterprises build systems that link future-related activities to core business processes, and bring tangible and i d immediate b di t benefits t stakeholders fit to t k h ld across the enterprise?

Corporate Decision-Making: Is “F t I It “Future-Proof”? P f”? Mary Beth McEuen The Maritz Institute July 2009

Decision-Making Processes and Tools Financial Services Sector Societal (K) Com- Economic Politics Technol- Industry Customers petition ogy Strategic Imperatives SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats

Organizational Life Cycles Young Mature AGE OF ORGANIZATION CONCEPTION REPEAT EXPERIMENT & SYSTEMIC SOCIAL NETWORK Large DECENTRALIZE PRODUCTIVITY Crisis of ??? red tape GANIZATION Crisis of SIZE OF control S ORG Crisis of autonomy Crisis of management Small S Evolution Revolution Adapted from Larry E. Greiner (HBR, 1998) and Torbert (2004).

Decision-Making Processes and Tools Future-Focused Executive Offsite Macro-Trends Macro Trends • Guest speakers • Gallery walk and dialogue Future-Focused Sector/Client Needs • Possible implications • How will macro-trends impact each target industry we serve? g y • Sector scenarios (Write a book outline that captures the future story for that industry.) • What are anticipated needs we can serve? Strategic Options • Based on anticipated sector/client needs, what strategic options should be pursued? • Given the strategic options we will pursue, what is the best business model? Statement of Strategic Intent

Decision-Making Processes and Tools Statement of Strategic Intent What do we do? Needs How do we do it? Offering Who is our target customer? Profile What is our advantage? Differentiation What ill be the t Wh t will b th outcome? ? Measures M How do we organize? Business Model How do our people create value? Focus

Decision-Making Processes and Tools ABCDE Strategic Thinking Tool E Environment C Current State D Strategies A Future State B Metrics Adapted from Stephen G. Haines, Enterprise-Wide Change (2004)

Also … Decision-Makers with … eyes to see … ears to hear … a mind to know … the f t th future the th world is calling for … and the courage to create it.

Decision-Makers Human Nature Prepares for a Momentous Leap By Clare W. Graves A new psychological theory holds that human beings exist at different “levels of existence.” At any given level, an individual exhibits the behavior and values characteristic of people at that level; a person who is centralized at a lower level cannot even understand people who are at a higher level. Through history, says Graves, most people have been confined to the lower levels of existence where they were motivated by needs shared with other animals. Now, Western man appears ready to move up to a higher level of existence, a distinctly human level. When this happens, there will likely be a dramatic transformation of human institutions institutions. – The Futurist, April 1974

Levels of Existence Clare W. Graves Learning Motivational Specific Nature of Problems of Level Thinking Means Values End Values System System Motivation Existence Existence Periodic No conscious value No conscious value Maintaining A–N Habituation Automatic Physiological physiological system; values are system; values are Automatic physiological needs p y purely reactive p y purely reactive stability y Aperiodic Classical Achievement of B–O Autistic Assurance physiological Traditionalism Safety Tribalistic conditioning relative safety needs Operant Psychologi- Living with self- C–P Egocentric Survival Exploitation Power Egocentric conditioning cal survival awareness Achieving Avoidant Order, D–Q Absolutistic Security Sacrifice Salvation Saintly everlasting learning meaning peace of mind Adequacy, Conquering the E–R Expectancy Multiplistic Independence Scientism Materialism Materialistic competency physical universe Love, Living with the F–S Observational Relativistic Affiliation Sociocentricity Community Personalistic affiliation human element Since people are in Restoring viability G–T the second ladder of Systemic Existence Self-worth Accepting Existence Cognitive to a disordered existence and all world basic systems are basic systems are now open, learning now open, learning Accepting in any form can and Differential Experiential- H–U in any form can and Experience ????? Experiencing Communion existential does take place place. istic dichotomies

Must have pertinent mix of decision-makers decision- along with effective decision-making decision- processes and tools.

Learning & Wishes • Decision-Making Processes & Tools – Start simply and expand from there • Decision-Makers – Integrate strategy & talent processes – Provide foresight education – Engagement skills build capacity for dialogue g g p y g • Wishes – Greater fluidity in scanning and feedback processes – Greater involvement at multiple levels of the organization – Greater experimentation and entrepreneurship p p p

What is Future Map? Future Map is a collaborative, real-time system for planning and managing programs and initiatives critical to the future of the organization Our Mission To guarantee achievement of critical objectives by developing comprehensive forward-looking management systems and processes that build the culture of strategic pro-activity and anticipatory leadership and drive aligned, consistent execution amidst uncertainty, complexity and change ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Preventing Strategic Failures Executive careers depend on success of critical initiatives: new product introductions, market penetration strategies, organizational change, merges and acquisitions. Meanwhile, over 70% of all such initiatives fail to deliver originally expected results! Main causes Boston “Big Dig”: 460% cost Motorola’s Iridium: almost overrun, 10 years behind schedule bankrupted the company Failure consistently drive Fail re to consistentl dri e Failure to anticipate risks and manage execution and prepare for changes Failure to mobilize critical DaimlerChrysler: Failure to deliver stakeholders and resources synergies, huge destruction of value ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Reducing Risks and Ensuring Results Engage Stakeholders in a continuous “strategic conversation” Imperatives Anticipate and Prepare for uncertainty, complexity and change Drive Execution as a focused, transparent, adaptive process Because we cannot afford to fail, we put , p behind each initiative a comprehensive system for strategic engagement, engagement planning and execution – Future Management System F t M tS t ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Three Strategic Dimensions Drive Execution Anticipate Driver: and Prepare Steps t St towards d Driver: success Uncertainty Dimension: and Change Process Dimension: Time We need to create a “drawing board” for future roadmap around which our strategic conversation will happen Driver: Importance to Stakeholders Engage E Dimension: Stakeholders Success Factors ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Making Future “Actionable” Anticipated Events p Common denominator for : Description of Actions, Challenge: How to Intelligence Information, Integrate Foresight g g Implications and “what if’s” p with Strategic Facts of Business Environment, Planning, Scorecaring Management Decisions, and Execution? Objectives and Results j Factors Define focus areas that : Important to Stakeholders Impact company’s Business p p y Frame Goals and Achievements Contain actions to execute Time Carry change and uncertainty Help explain the reality around us Event Field ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Strategic “Radar Screen” and “War Room” Future Map creates a shared, continuously updated “Memory of the Future” of organization based on Anticipated Events, and plays the role of a “War Room” Trends Event Scenarios Event Event Event Event Event Event Event Event Experts Implications Event Event Event ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Future Map – Process Drive Execution Identify Gaps Build strategies Map Action Roadmap Anticipate and Prepare Assign key responsibilities Set Up Reporting process Identify drivers of change Create strategic learning cycle Map evolution of trends Drive and monitor execution, Anticipate scenarios and “Wild Review and adjust strategies Engage Stakeholders Cards” Identify risks and uncertainties Identify St k h ld Id tif Stakeholders and R d Resources Understand implications Understand Success Factors and Map key decision needs Drivers of Business Environment Set up intelligence and Early Establish Timeline Warning processes Define Objectives and Milestones Map Internal and External Expertise Set Up Communication Channels Establish Knowledge Management Set Up Develop Leverage ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Future Map – System Drive, Monitor, Correct Strategies Objectives Connect Critical Processes Marketing Scenarios & Intelligence Event & Strategy Process Event Shared Event Process “Big Picture” of Create Shared “Workspace” Event Anticipated Events Event Business Environment Event Event Event Event Learning & Event Event Planning & Communication Event Scorecarding Process Process Set Up Develop Leverage ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Seven Strategic Behaviors 1. Starts strategic thinking from the Future, not the Past Past Event Present Strategy Anticipated Event Objective 2. Drives proactive Strategy and continuous Preparedness 3. Engages people in a real time Strategic Conversation 4. Strengthens Execution Discipline 5. Bridges the gap between Long-term and Short-term perspectives 6. Connects Decision-making and Execution processes 7. Links Strategy, Intelligence and Learning ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Case Studies Foreign Trade Lobby group for major US multinationals Real-time global Intelligence and E I t lli d Event t Management system Leading European Semiconductor Manufacturer Competitive Intelligence and A ti M d Action Mappingi system for Global Accounts Global Pharmaceutical Company Strategic Planning and Competitive Intelligence p g Support System ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Anticipatory Leadership Anticipatory Leadership Future- Proactive focused Strategy Culture Shared Strategic Total “Big Picture” Conversation Awareness of the Future Dynamic Scenario Real-time Integrated Scorecard Thinking Collaboration Intelligence Future Map ensures short-term results and F t M h tt lt d builds long-term capacities and culture ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Future Map Software Build Project Scenarios S i Trends T d Map Assess Implications Probabilities P b biliti View Manage Alternatives Knowledge Develop Scorecards S d Build B ild Wiki Community Plan Compare p Strategies Data ©2008 Future Map ©2009 Future Map

Corporate Decision-Making: Questions: • How can enterprises get more value from future-focused work? • How can enterprises put the “future” in the center of decision-making processes? • How can enterprises build systems that link future-related activities to core business processes, and bring tangible and i d immediate b di t benefits t stakeholders fit to t k h ld across the enterprise?

Corporate Decision-Making: Presenters: • Dr. JAY GARY - Assistant Professor at Regent University, director of Foresight programs http://www regent edu/global http://www.regent.edu/global • MARY BETH MCEUEN- Vice President, Organization & People Potential Maritz Potential, Maritz, http://www.maritz.com • DONALD HEATHFIELD - the inventor of the Future Map concept and company CEO http://www.futuremap.com/ Download slides: http://www.jaygary.com/corporate.pdf

Corporate Decision Making: Decision-Making: Is it “Future-Proof”? World Future Society Chicago Hilt Chi Hilton, J l 18 2008 July 18, Download slides: http://www.jaygary.com/corporate.pdf

Corporate Decision-Making

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