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11 September 2009
University of Surrey
                        Dream it,
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
  Infinite Futures       then do it.
                        Engineering and innovation --
                            building our futures.




                       Women’s Engineering Society
2
    Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:




2
      Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!




2
      Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher




2
      Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher
      • University of Houston, ISEG in
        Lisbon, Nanyang Technological
        University in Singapore




2
      Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher
      • University of Houston, ISEG in
        Lisbon, Nanyang Technological
        University in Singapore
    • Researcher




2
      Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher
      • University of Houston, ISEG in
        Lisbon, Nanyang Technological
        University in Singapore
    • Researcher
      • Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios,
        Future of Philanthropy




2
      Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher
      • University of Houston, ISEG in
        Lisbon, Nanyang Technological
        University in Singapore
    • Researcher
      • Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios,
        Future of Philanthropy
    • Process Designer




2
      Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher
      • University of Houston, ISEG in
        Lisbon, Nanyang Technological
        University in Singapore
    • Researcher
      • Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios,
        Future of Philanthropy
    • Process Designer
      • Natural England scenarios
        compendium, Land Use Futures
        foresight process




2
      Who am I?
Name, specialty, trade cards.



               Who are you?
                        © Infinite Futures 2005
Name, specialty, trade cards.




                        © Infinite Futures 2005
Name, specialty, trade cards.




                        © Infinite Futures 2005
4
    Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    • Melitta Benz




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    • Melitta Benz
     • sold the coffee filter, 1908




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    • Melitta Benz
     • sold the coffee filter, 1908
    • Emily Canham




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    • Melitta Benz
     • sold the coffee filter, 1908
    • Emily Canham
     • 2-zone headlights, 1908




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    • Melitta Benz
     • sold the coffee filter, 1908
    • Emily Canham
     • 2-zone headlights, 1908
    • Stephanie Kwolek




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    • Melitta Benz
     • sold the coffee filter, 1908
    • Emily Canham
     • 2-zone headlights, 1908
    • Stephanie Kwolek
     • Kevlar, 1966




4
     Who is she?
Possibilities
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Transforming transit and transport?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Extreme sports and cinematic dreams?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Embedding our ICT?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




New skills and careers?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Kinder cures?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




More help with health?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Responsible for our own health?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




A greener lifestyle?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




New roads from new materials?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Escaping the “cradle”?
Perils
Fire: the warming world.
Flood: the drowned world.
Fade Away: the aged world.
Transform: mutable worlds.
Potential
Engineers, one word for you:
                 bioscience.
Bioscientists, one word for you:
                      nanotech.
Demographics
                                                          & Ageing


                                                                           Engineering
Integration of     Energy Technologies
                                                       Nanotechnology
data from the
Health & Safety
Lab’s horizon
scan and the       Advanced Materials &
                                                          Recycling         the Future
                        Robotics
Foresight                                            Human Performance
Horizon                                                Enhancement

Scanning            Nanotechnologies                     Pervasive
Centre’s Sigma                                           Computing
and Delta Scans.
                                                          Hydrogen
                                                          Economy
                    Sensors & Tracking
                                                            Cyber
                                                           Security        • From multi
                                                       Carbon Dioxide
                                                                            disciplinary and
                   Body & Mind Sciences                 Sequestration
                                                                            transdisciplinary
                                                           Genetic
                                                           Testing         • to post-
                   Information Handling
                                                      New & Emerging
                                                                            disciplinary:
                          & KM
                                                      Pests & Diseases
                                                                           • blur and smear will
                                                        Biotechnology
                   Network Interactions
                                                                            drive innovation
                                                          Terahertz
                                                         Technology

                          Security                        Robotics
                    (Info & Behaviour)                      & AI

                                                      Flexible Working &
                                                         Employment
                   Figure 4 OSI/HSC’s 8 S&T themes   Do Keyboards Have a
                   and HSE’s “Current Issues.”             Future
Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness
from its starting point as an emerging issue of
change.                                    system limits;
                                       problems develop;
                                                               unintended impacts
    Number of
    cases;                 global; multiple dispersed
    degree of              cases; trends and drivers                  3rd horizon
    public
    awareness
                                                       institutions and
                                                       government
                                                  newspapers; news magazines;
                                                  broadcast media

                                            laypersons’ magazines;
           local; few                       websites; documentaries
           cases;
           emerging
    Pockets of                     specialists’ journals and
           issues
   future found                    websites
    In present
                 scientists; artists; radicals;
                 mystics
   “2010”                      “2030”                           “2060”     Time
“3 Horizons” and Horizon Scanning
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
                     STATUS QUO,
                     MOMENTUM,
         Fading
                       INERTIA                  3rd horizon
      paradigms &
      technologies



                      CURRENT
                      TRENDS &
       Transition
                       DRIVERS
      paradigms &
      technologies                              2nd horizon


                      EMERGING
       Pockets of     ISSUES OF
      future found     CHANGE
                                                1st horizon
       In present



     “2010”                       “2030”   “2060”    Time
Fuel and Transport
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
                  fossil fuels &
               internal combusion
                     engines
         Fading                                           3rd horizon
      paradigms &
      technologies




       Transition           hybrid gas-
      paradigms &         electric; hybrid
                             plug-ins;
      technologies
                             plug-ins
                                                          2nd horizon



       Pockets of
      future found                       hydrogen
                                         fuel-cell        1st horizon
       In present



     “2010”                     “2030”               “2060”    Time
• Prius: most
   successful
   hybrid                          Fuel and Transport
• Zipcar, City
  CarShare,
  Better Place:
  rentable plug-
  in hybrids

• Tesla all-
  electric
  roadster




                                                         • Hempstead, NY:
                                                           hydrogen fuel
                                    • VW Hymotion:         station
                                      fuel cell
                                                         • Las Vegas, NV:
                                      prototype
                                                           solar-powered
                                    • Constraints:         hydrogen fuel
                                      on-board fuel        station
                                      storage; fueling
                                      infrastructure;
                                      fuel production

                                    • Critique: still
                                      an individualist
                                      paradigm

   • Possible paradigm shift:
      communitarianism ( ZipCar,
      City CarShare)
Climate Change, Adaptation, and Amelioration
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview

                    reduce carbon
                   footprint: amend
         Fading      resource use                           3rd horizon
      paradigms &      practices
      technologies



                            carbon
                      sequestration
       Transition
      paradigms &
      technologies                                          2nd horizon



       Pockets of
      future found                     back to gas:
                                      convert CO2 to        1st horizon
       In present
                                      methane -- or
                                          CaCO3

     “2010”                    “2030”                  “2060”    Time
Climate Change, Adaptation, and Amelioration
                           • Orbital Carbon        • Nanotubes + catalyst + sunlight + H20 + CO2
                             Observatory             = methane and assorted other fuel gases.
                             (just crashed)




351                       362

       Column CO2 (ppm)




                                              • Geosequestration: US
                                                government backing

                                              • Constraints: capture at
                                                smokestack inefficient;
                                                volumes too great to
                                                bury; long-term impacts

                                              • Paradigm shift: none --
                                                tech fix allows BAU
Food Security and Food Production
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
          commercial intensified agriculture vs.
             organic artisanal agriculture
         Fading                                                      3rd horizon
      paradigms &
      technologies




       Transition          hydroponics and
      paradigms &            aeroponics
      technologies                                                   2nd horizon



       Pockets of
      future found                  cloned-tissue meat
                                 production vs. tourist ‘art’        1st horizon
       In present
                                           cattle


     “2010”                      “2030”                         “2060”    Time
Food Security and Food Production
   • Aeroponics: NASA
     developed, now small-
     scale products and
     large-scale research /
     design centers

   • Constraints: costs of
     infrastructure
                                • In-vitro meat:
   • Paradigm shift: from          PETA has offered
     earth to Spaceship Earth      a $1 mn “X-
                                   Prize” for science
                                   team that
                                   develops
                                   commercially
                                   viable process

                                • Constraints:
                                  social attitudes
                                  re: natural foods
                                  - snobbery /
                                  luxury backlash

                                • Paradigm shift:
                                  from natural to
                                  biodesigned
Agriculture and Land Use
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
                  urban-rural
               agricultural divide
         Fading                                                    3rd horizon
      paradigms &
      technologies




       Transition     urban agriculture &
      paradigms &     vertical agriculture
      technologies                                                 2nd horizon



       Pockets of
      future found
                               natural systems agriculture:        1st horizon
       In present
                              melding ecology and agronomy


     “2010”                     “2030”                        “2060”    Time
Agriculture and Land Use
• Vertical Farm research centre attracting both professionals and students of design

•Constraints: costs of new installations - finding investors; regulations; retrofitting
  costs




                                                            • Land Institute: creating prairie-
                                                               like perennial agriculture
                                                            • Constraints: in development
                                                            • Paradigm shift: biomimicry
Small but significant change.
Small but significant change.
Small but significant change.
Small but significant change.
Whole new territories.
From the very tiny...
...to the
monumental...
...to the
monumental...
...to the
monumental...
...to the
monumental...
...to the infinite.
From individual ideas...
...to team synergy.
Foresight:
4 Modes & 5 Key Activities

4 Thinking    5 Foresight Activities:
Modes:         Identify and monitor change;

  Logical      Map and critique impacts;

  Creative     Imagine alternative outcomes;

  Systemic     Envision preferred futures;

  Intuitive    Organise and act to create change.




                43
Imagineering
  and Ethics
Imagineering
  and Ethics
Imagineering
  and Ethics
Imagineering
  and Ethics
Imagineering
  and Ethics
Imagineering
  and Ethics
• established in 1962
   • 55 ecologically benign buildings
   • 4 wind turbines
   • Living Machine sewage system
   • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average
   • community-wide solar water
     heating
   • community-wide recycling
   • own bank and community currency
   • UN Habitat Best Practice
     Designation




Where is this?
• established in 1962
   • 55 ecologically benign buildings
   • 4 wind turbines
   • Living Machine sewage system
   • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average
   • community-wide solar water
     heating
   • community-wide recycling
   • own bank and community currency
   • UN Habitat Best Practice
     Designation




Where is this?
• established in 1962
   • 55 ecologically benign buildings
   • 4 wind turbines
   • Living Machine sewage system
   • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average
   • community-wide solar water
     heating
   • community-wide recycling
   • own bank and community currency
   • UN Habitat Best Practice
     Designation




Where is this?
Biomimicry: designing from nature
   Scientists, engineers and designers
   increasingly innovate by studying
   nature’s efficiencies, following                                                         Zimbabwe office
                                                                                            complex air
   these rules of thumb:                                                                    conditioning
                                                                                         modeled on air flow
                                                                                           within termite
 – Nature runs on sunlight;                                                                   mound.

 – Nature uses only the energy it needs;
 – Nature fits form to function;
 – Nature recycles everything;                                       Self-cleaning fabrics and glass
                                                                     modeled on surface structure
                                                                              of a lotus leaf.
 – Nature rewards cooperation;
 – Nature banks on diversity;
 – Nature demands local expertise;
 – Nature curbs excess from within;
 – Nature taps the power of limits.

                    Could this be a new set of working assumptions
                                     for local community planning?
The future will be framed by how we answer
                       five fundamental questions:

                DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and
                paradigms will emerge to help us make sense
                of the world?
                RELATE: How will we live together on planet
                Earth?
                CONNECT: What arts and technologies will
                we use to connect people, places, and things?
                CREATE: As human beings what will we be
                inspired to create?
                CONSUME: How will we use the earth’s
                resources?




Who creates the future?
4 Thinking Modes:
                     Logical

                     Creative

                     Systemic

                     Intuitive




You do: use your whole brain
            ...and your heart.
...and let’s redefine wealth.
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
                Infinite Futures:
 foresight research and training
               Oxford, England
        http:// www.infinitefutures.com




Thank you.

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Women's Engineering Society, UK; 11 September 2009

  • 1. 11 September 2009 University of Surrey Dream it, Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures then do it. Engineering and innovation -- building our futures. Women’s Engineering Society
  • 2. 2 Who am I?
  • 3. • Futurist -- with a degree: 2 Who am I?
  • 4. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! 2 Who am I?
  • 5. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher 2 Who am I?
  • 6. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher • University of Houston, ISEG in Lisbon, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore 2 Who am I?
  • 7. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher • University of Houston, ISEG in Lisbon, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore • Researcher 2 Who am I?
  • 8. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher • University of Houston, ISEG in Lisbon, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore • Researcher • Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios, Future of Philanthropy 2 Who am I?
  • 9. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher • University of Houston, ISEG in Lisbon, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore • Researcher • Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios, Future of Philanthropy • Process Designer 2 Who am I?
  • 10. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher • University of Houston, ISEG in Lisbon, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore • Researcher • Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios, Future of Philanthropy • Process Designer • Natural England scenarios compendium, Land Use Futures foresight process 2 Who am I?
  • 11. Name, specialty, trade cards. Who are you? © Infinite Futures 2005
  • 12. Name, specialty, trade cards. © Infinite Futures 2005
  • 13. Name, specialty, trade cards. © Infinite Futures 2005
  • 14. 4 Who is she?
  • 15. • Ada Lovelace 4 Who is she?
  • 16. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 4 Who is she?
  • 17. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane 4 Who is she?
  • 18. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 4 Who is she?
  • 19. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz 4 Who is she?
  • 20. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz • sold the coffee filter, 1908 4 Who is she?
  • 21. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz • sold the coffee filter, 1908 • Emily Canham 4 Who is she?
  • 22. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz • sold the coffee filter, 1908 • Emily Canham • 2-zone headlights, 1908 4 Who is she?
  • 23. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz • sold the coffee filter, 1908 • Emily Canham • 2-zone headlights, 1908 • Stephanie Kwolek 4 Who is she?
  • 24. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz • sold the coffee filter, 1908 • Emily Canham • 2-zone headlights, 1908 • Stephanie Kwolek • Kevlar, 1966 4 Who is she?
  • 26. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Transforming transit and transport?
  • 27. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Extreme sports and cinematic dreams?
  • 28. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Embedding our ICT?
  • 29. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. New skills and careers?
  • 30. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Kinder cures?
  • 31. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. More help with health?
  • 32. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Responsible for our own health?
  • 33. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. A greener lifestyle?
  • 34. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. New roads from new materials?
  • 35. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Escaping the “cradle”?
  • 39. Fade Away: the aged world.
  • 42. Engineers, one word for you: bioscience.
  • 43. Bioscientists, one word for you: nanotech.
  • 44. Demographics & Ageing Engineering Integration of Energy Technologies Nanotechnology data from the Health & Safety Lab’s horizon scan and the Advanced Materials & Recycling the Future Robotics Foresight Human Performance Horizon Enhancement Scanning Nanotechnologies Pervasive Centre’s Sigma Computing and Delta Scans. Hydrogen Economy Sensors & Tracking Cyber Security • From multi Carbon Dioxide disciplinary and Body & Mind Sciences Sequestration transdisciplinary Genetic Testing • to post- Information Handling New & Emerging disciplinary: & KM Pests & Diseases • blur and smear will Biotechnology Network Interactions drive innovation Terahertz Technology Security Robotics (Info & Behaviour) & AI Flexible Working & Employment Figure 4 OSI/HSC’s 8 S&T themes Do Keyboards Have a and HSE’s “Current Issues.” Future
  • 45. Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change. system limits; problems develop; unintended impacts Number of cases; global; multiple dispersed degree of cases; trends and drivers 3rd horizon public awareness institutions and government newspapers; news magazines; broadcast media laypersons’ magazines; local; few websites; documentaries cases; emerging Pockets of specialists’ journals and issues future found websites In present scientists; artists; radicals; mystics “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
  • 46. “3 Horizons” and Horizon Scanning Dominance of paradigm / worldview STATUS QUO, MOMENTUM, Fading INERTIA 3rd horizon paradigms & technologies CURRENT TRENDS & Transition DRIVERS paradigms & technologies 2nd horizon EMERGING Pockets of ISSUES OF future found CHANGE 1st horizon In present “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
  • 47. Fuel and Transport Dominance of paradigm / worldview fossil fuels & internal combusion engines Fading 3rd horizon paradigms & technologies Transition hybrid gas- paradigms & electric; hybrid plug-ins; technologies plug-ins 2nd horizon Pockets of future found hydrogen fuel-cell 1st horizon In present “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
  • 48. • Prius: most successful hybrid Fuel and Transport • Zipcar, City CarShare, Better Place: rentable plug- in hybrids • Tesla all- electric roadster • Hempstead, NY: hydrogen fuel • VW Hymotion: station fuel cell • Las Vegas, NV: prototype solar-powered • Constraints: hydrogen fuel on-board fuel station storage; fueling infrastructure; fuel production • Critique: still an individualist paradigm • Possible paradigm shift: communitarianism ( ZipCar, City CarShare)
  • 49. Climate Change, Adaptation, and Amelioration Dominance of paradigm / worldview reduce carbon footprint: amend Fading resource use 3rd horizon paradigms & practices technologies carbon sequestration Transition paradigms & technologies 2nd horizon Pockets of future found back to gas: convert CO2 to 1st horizon In present methane -- or CaCO3 “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
  • 50. Climate Change, Adaptation, and Amelioration • Orbital Carbon • Nanotubes + catalyst + sunlight + H20 + CO2 Observatory = methane and assorted other fuel gases. (just crashed) 351 362 Column CO2 (ppm) • Geosequestration: US government backing • Constraints: capture at smokestack inefficient; volumes too great to bury; long-term impacts • Paradigm shift: none -- tech fix allows BAU
  • 51. Food Security and Food Production Dominance of paradigm / worldview commercial intensified agriculture vs. organic artisanal agriculture Fading 3rd horizon paradigms & technologies Transition hydroponics and paradigms & aeroponics technologies 2nd horizon Pockets of future found cloned-tissue meat production vs. tourist ‘art’ 1st horizon In present cattle “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
  • 52. Food Security and Food Production • Aeroponics: NASA developed, now small- scale products and large-scale research / design centers • Constraints: costs of infrastructure • In-vitro meat: • Paradigm shift: from PETA has offered earth to Spaceship Earth a $1 mn “X- Prize” for science team that develops commercially viable process • Constraints: social attitudes re: natural foods - snobbery / luxury backlash • Paradigm shift: from natural to biodesigned
  • 53. Agriculture and Land Use Dominance of paradigm / worldview urban-rural agricultural divide Fading 3rd horizon paradigms & technologies Transition urban agriculture & paradigms & vertical agriculture technologies 2nd horizon Pockets of future found natural systems agriculture: 1st horizon In present melding ecology and agronomy “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
  • 54. Agriculture and Land Use • Vertical Farm research centre attracting both professionals and students of design •Constraints: costs of new installations - finding investors; regulations; retrofitting costs • Land Institute: creating prairie- like perennial agriculture • Constraints: in development • Paradigm shift: biomimicry
  • 60. From the very tiny...
  • 68. Foresight: 4 Modes & 5 Key Activities 4 Thinking 5 Foresight Activities: Modes: Identify and monitor change; Logical Map and critique impacts; Creative Imagine alternative outcomes; Systemic Envision preferred futures; Intuitive Organise and act to create change. 43
  • 75. • established in 1962 • 55 ecologically benign buildings • 4 wind turbines • Living Machine sewage system • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average • community-wide solar water heating • community-wide recycling • own bank and community currency • UN Habitat Best Practice Designation Where is this?
  • 76. • established in 1962 • 55 ecologically benign buildings • 4 wind turbines • Living Machine sewage system • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average • community-wide solar water heating • community-wide recycling • own bank and community currency • UN Habitat Best Practice Designation Where is this?
  • 77. • established in 1962 • 55 ecologically benign buildings • 4 wind turbines • Living Machine sewage system • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average • community-wide solar water heating • community-wide recycling • own bank and community currency • UN Habitat Best Practice Designation Where is this?
  • 78. Biomimicry: designing from nature Scientists, engineers and designers increasingly innovate by studying nature’s efficiencies, following Zimbabwe office complex air these rules of thumb: conditioning modeled on air flow within termite – Nature runs on sunlight; mound. – Nature uses only the energy it needs; – Nature fits form to function; – Nature recycles everything; Self-cleaning fabrics and glass modeled on surface structure of a lotus leaf. – Nature rewards cooperation; – Nature banks on diversity; – Nature demands local expertise; – Nature curbs excess from within; – Nature taps the power of limits. Could this be a new set of working assumptions for local community planning?
  • 79. The future will be framed by how we answer five fundamental questions: DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world? RELATE: How will we live together on planet Earth? CONNECT: What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things? CREATE: As human beings what will we be inspired to create? CONSUME: How will we use the earth’s resources? Who creates the future?
  • 80. 4 Thinking Modes: Logical Creative Systemic Intuitive You do: use your whole brain ...and your heart.
  • 82. Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures: foresight research and training Oxford, England http:// www.infinitefutures.com Thank you.

Editor's Notes

  1. This presentation was prepared for the Social Research Association’s seminar on futures studies and social research, London, 7 July 2009.
  2. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  3. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  4. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  5. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  6. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  7. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  8. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  9. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  10. Two minutes: take each of your four specific future joys, and trade them one-by-one with different people seated around you -- make sure they can read your writing!
  11. Two minutes: take each of your four specific future joys, and trade them one-by-one with different people seated around you -- make sure they can read your writing!
  12. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  13. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  14. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  15. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  16. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  17. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  18. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  19. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  20. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  21. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  22. This classic diagram depicts the life cycle of a change, from emerging issue to full-blown trend, both in terms of number of observable cases, and in terms of public awareness. Note that perceiving weak signals of change requires monitoring publications and activities on the far lower left end of the curve: specialist and fringe publications, blogs, conferences, media output. A robust scanning strategy will monitor change all along this curve, and discriminate between the uses and usefulness of data emerging from different points of the curve. As a change matures, more and more data points are available with which to analyse it: we can speak of the change as a variable which is displaying a trend in some direction. When a change is just emerging, and only a few data points exist with which to characterise it, we can only analyse it via a case study approach.
  23. Trends -- data about change encompassing enough observations for statistical significance -- when mature may be considered conditions of the operating environment that planning should already have taken into account. Globalisation is an example: it has been widely recognised for some time, and the basket of trends which constitute this driver are well documented. It should be on the navigational map. Ongoing environmental scanning acts as radar / sonar, identifying new elements in the territory which have either arisen since the map was drawn, or which are in motion. The access of Chinese teen-agers to broadband Internet -- including the conditions of that access (eg., Google, Yahoo censoring technologies) and the uses to which they are putting that access -- is an example of an emerging issue which is dynamically evolving.
  24. Hybrid, plug-in hybrid: http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4227944.html http://www.iags.org/pih.htm http://www.soultek.com/clean_energy/hybrid_cars/better_than_hybrid_car_plug_in_hybrid_car.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_hybrid Purely plug-in: Tesla http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-13746_7-10108210-48.html?tag=mncol;txt Plug-in infrastructure: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10167445-54.html?tag=mncol;txt see also Zipcar, City CarShare Hydrogen fuel cell transport: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/11/vw-highlights-t.html re: WV Tiguan Hymotion: “The fuel cell stack in the Tiguan Hymotion is a VW-developed high-temperature fuel cell (HTFC) stack. “ http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10169517-54.html Solving some hydrogen economy constraints: Car fuel tanks: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16632-gas-tank-of-the-future-takes-a-step-closer.html Re-fueling infrastructure: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10167457-54.html?tag=mncol;posts http://news.cnet.com/2300-11392_3-6173071-1.html?tag=mncol;txt Producing hydrogen for fuel: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/oxygen-0731.html or http://news.cnet.com/Priming-the-pump-for-hydrogen-fuel/2100-11392_3-6170740.html?tag=mncol;txt
  25. Low Carbon Economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-carbon_economy Carbon use and management: orbiting carbon observatory http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090219201657.htm http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16650-satellite-to-pinpoint-sources-and-sinks-of-co2.html Carbon sequestration: critique: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/07/carbon_sequestration.php USA programs: http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/sequestration/ http://csite.esd.ornl.gov/ Bacteria capture carbon as CaCO3: http://www.gizmag.com/bacteria-convert-co2-calcium-carbonate/11069/ Methane production: Innovations: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16621-sunpowered-device-converts-co2-into-fuel.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news CO2 to methane conversion using nanotubes and sunlight: http://www.physorg.com/news154007555.html http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/nl048301k Methanol economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanol_economy
  26. Low Carbon Economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-carbon_economy Carbon use and management: orbiting carbon observatory http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090219201657.htm http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16650-satellite-to-pinpoint-sources-and-sinks-of-co2.html Carbon sequestration: critique: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/07/carbon_sequestration.php USA programs: http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/sequestration/ http://csite.esd.ornl.gov/ Bacteria capture carbon as CaCO3: http://www.gizmag.com/bacteria-convert-co2-calcium-carbonate/11069/ Methane production: Innovations: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16621-sunpowered-device-converts-co2-into-fuel.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news CO2 to methane conversion using nanotubes and sunlight: http://www.physorg.com/news154007555.html http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/nl048301k Methanol economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanol_economy
  27. Aeroponics: http://www.straitstimes.com/vgn-ext-templating/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=8b655d4e63d3f110VgnVCM100000430a0a0aRCRD&vgnextchannel=cf70758920e39010VgnVCM1000000a35010aRCRD http://www.gizmag.com/global-food-crisis-vertical-aeroponic-farming/11019/ http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/03/indoor_gardenin.php http://home.howstuffworks.com/lawn-garden/professional-landscaping/alternative-methods/aeroponics.htm http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/technologies/aeroponic_plants.html In vitro meat: http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/04/invitro_meat http://www.labtechnologist.com/Applications/Cultured-meat-made-for-the-masses http://www.innovationwatch.com/choiceisyours/choiceisyours-2007-05-15.htm http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19926635.600-comment-labgrown-meat-could-ease-food-shortage.html http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/06/dutch_scientist_1.php http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/us/21meat.html?hp http://www.invitromeat.org/ http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/features/article3894871.ece http://www.peta.org/feat_in_vitro_contest.asp
  28. Urban agriculture / eco-cities: NYC Sustainable Ag Barge (video): http://videos.howstuffworks.com/discovery/32609-earth-urban-agriculture-blooms-video.htm?sort=most_watched&page=3 http://www.ecopolis.com.au/index.php/proj/ http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/001985.html http://eduspaces.net/geoffwuan/weblog/ http://www.growingedge.com/los-angeles-restaurants-add-rooftop-gardens#more-1414 http://articles.latimes.com/2007/jun/17/realestate/re-green17 Vertical agriculture: http://www.verticalfarm.com/designs.html http://www.gizmag.com/could-15km-tall-vertical-villages-be-the-solution-to-londons-growing-p/9005/ http://popularchitecture.com/supertower/ Natural systems agriculture: The Land Institute http://www.landinstitute.org/vnews/display.v/ART/2007/03/15/45facffb6ccd6 from the BBC article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6752795.stm It's all the brainchild of Columbia University Professor Dickson Despommier. He and his students took existing greenhouse technology as a starting point and are now convinced that vertical farms are a practical suggestion. Professor Despommier lists many advantages of this revolutionary kind of agriculture. They include: Year round crop production in a controlled environment All produce would be organic as there would be no exposure to wild parasites and bugs Elimination of environmentally damaging agricultural runoff Food being produced locally to where it is consumed And, says the professor, vertical farming would allow some existing traditional farms to be returned to natural forests. Good news in a time of global warming.
  29. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Findhorn_Foundation
  30. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Findhorn_Foundation
  31. Baroness Prof. Susan Greenfield: futures of neuroscience, cognition, and the human brain. The brain does not distinguish between imagined experience and lived experience: it grows, gains in complexity, adds neurons and interconnections and complexity from the stimulus of thought to the same extent as from the stimulus of life. Thus extrapolating, exploring, envisioning possible and preferred futures does in fact prepare your brain to work more effectively in processing the lived experience of whatever futures may arise.