Keynote on women and innovation and long-term change delivered to the Women's Engineering Society of the UK at their annual conference on 11 September 2009.
Women's Engineering Society, UK; 11 September 2009
1. 11 September 2009
University of Surrey
Dream it,
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
Infinite Futures then do it.
Engineering and innovation --
building our futures.
Women’s Engineering Society
4. • Futurist -- with a degree:
• Yes! it IS an academic field!
2
Who am I?
5. • Futurist -- with a degree:
• Yes! it IS an academic field!
• Teacher
2
Who am I?
6. • Futurist -- with a degree:
• Yes! it IS an academic field!
• Teacher
• University of Houston, ISEG in
Lisbon, Nanyang Technological
University in Singapore
2
Who am I?
7. • Futurist -- with a degree:
• Yes! it IS an academic field!
• Teacher
• University of Houston, ISEG in
Lisbon, Nanyang Technological
University in Singapore
• Researcher
2
Who am I?
8. • Futurist -- with a degree:
• Yes! it IS an academic field!
• Teacher
• University of Houston, ISEG in
Lisbon, Nanyang Technological
University in Singapore
• Researcher
• Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios,
Future of Philanthropy
2
Who am I?
9. • Futurist -- with a degree:
• Yes! it IS an academic field!
• Teacher
• University of Houston, ISEG in
Lisbon, Nanyang Technological
University in Singapore
• Researcher
• Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios,
Future of Philanthropy
• Process Designer
2
Who am I?
10. • Futurist -- with a degree:
• Yes! it IS an academic field!
• Teacher
• University of Houston, ISEG in
Lisbon, Nanyang Technological
University in Singapore
• Researcher
• Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios,
Future of Philanthropy
• Process Designer
• Natural England scenarios
compendium, Land Use Futures
foresight process
2
Who am I?
16. • Ada Lovelace
• first computer program, 1843
4
Who is she?
17. • Ada Lovelace
• first computer program, 1843
• Josephine Garis Cochrane
4
Who is she?
18. • Ada Lovelace
• first computer program, 1843
• Josephine Garis Cochrane
• patented the dishwasher, 1886
4
Who is she?
19. • Ada Lovelace
• first computer program, 1843
• Josephine Garis Cochrane
• patented the dishwasher, 1886
• Melitta Benz
4
Who is she?
20. • Ada Lovelace
• first computer program, 1843
• Josephine Garis Cochrane
• patented the dishwasher, 1886
• Melitta Benz
• sold the coffee filter, 1908
4
Who is she?
21. • Ada Lovelace
• first computer program, 1843
• Josephine Garis Cochrane
• patented the dishwasher, 1886
• Melitta Benz
• sold the coffee filter, 1908
• Emily Canham
4
Who is she?
22. • Ada Lovelace
• first computer program, 1843
• Josephine Garis Cochrane
• patented the dishwasher, 1886
• Melitta Benz
• sold the coffee filter, 1908
• Emily Canham
• 2-zone headlights, 1908
4
Who is she?
23. • Ada Lovelace
• first computer program, 1843
• Josephine Garis Cochrane
• patented the dishwasher, 1886
• Melitta Benz
• sold the coffee filter, 1908
• Emily Canham
• 2-zone headlights, 1908
• Stephanie Kwolek
4
Who is she?
24. • Ada Lovelace
• first computer program, 1843
• Josephine Garis Cochrane
• patented the dishwasher, 1886
• Melitta Benz
• sold the coffee filter, 1908
• Emily Canham
• 2-zone headlights, 1908
• Stephanie Kwolek
• Kevlar, 1966
4
Who is she?
44. Demographics
& Ageing
Engineering
Integration of Energy Technologies
Nanotechnology
data from the
Health & Safety
Lab’s horizon
scan and the Advanced Materials &
Recycling the Future
Robotics
Foresight Human Performance
Horizon Enhancement
Scanning Nanotechnologies Pervasive
Centre’s Sigma Computing
and Delta Scans.
Hydrogen
Economy
Sensors & Tracking
Cyber
Security • From multi
Carbon Dioxide
disciplinary and
Body & Mind Sciences Sequestration
transdisciplinary
Genetic
Testing • to post-
Information Handling
New & Emerging
disciplinary:
& KM
Pests & Diseases
• blur and smear will
Biotechnology
Network Interactions
drive innovation
Terahertz
Technology
Security Robotics
(Info & Behaviour) & AI
Flexible Working &
Employment
Figure 4 OSI/HSC’s 8 S&T themes Do Keyboards Have a
and HSE’s “Current Issues.” Future
45. Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness
from its starting point as an emerging issue of
change. system limits;
problems develop;
unintended impacts
Number of
cases; global; multiple dispersed
degree of cases; trends and drivers 3rd horizon
public
awareness
institutions and
government
newspapers; news magazines;
broadcast media
laypersons’ magazines;
local; few websites; documentaries
cases;
emerging
Pockets of specialists’ journals and
issues
future found websites
In present
scientists; artists; radicals;
mystics
“2010” “2030” “2060” Time
46. “3 Horizons” and Horizon Scanning
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
STATUS QUO,
MOMENTUM,
Fading
INERTIA 3rd horizon
paradigms &
technologies
CURRENT
TRENDS &
Transition
DRIVERS
paradigms &
technologies 2nd horizon
EMERGING
Pockets of ISSUES OF
future found CHANGE
1st horizon
In present
“2010” “2030” “2060” Time
47. Fuel and Transport
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
fossil fuels &
internal combusion
engines
Fading 3rd horizon
paradigms &
technologies
Transition hybrid gas-
paradigms & electric; hybrid
plug-ins;
technologies
plug-ins
2nd horizon
Pockets of
future found hydrogen
fuel-cell 1st horizon
In present
“2010” “2030” “2060” Time
48. • Prius: most
successful
hybrid Fuel and Transport
• Zipcar, City
CarShare,
Better Place:
rentable plug-
in hybrids
• Tesla all-
electric
roadster
• Hempstead, NY:
hydrogen fuel
• VW Hymotion: station
fuel cell
• Las Vegas, NV:
prototype
solar-powered
• Constraints: hydrogen fuel
on-board fuel station
storage; fueling
infrastructure;
fuel production
• Critique: still
an individualist
paradigm
• Possible paradigm shift:
communitarianism ( ZipCar,
City CarShare)
49. Climate Change, Adaptation, and Amelioration
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
reduce carbon
footprint: amend
Fading resource use 3rd horizon
paradigms & practices
technologies
carbon
sequestration
Transition
paradigms &
technologies 2nd horizon
Pockets of
future found back to gas:
convert CO2 to 1st horizon
In present
methane -- or
CaCO3
“2010” “2030” “2060” Time
50. Climate Change, Adaptation, and Amelioration
• Orbital Carbon • Nanotubes + catalyst + sunlight + H20 + CO2
Observatory = methane and assorted other fuel gases.
(just crashed)
351 362
Column CO2 (ppm)
• Geosequestration: US
government backing
• Constraints: capture at
smokestack inefficient;
volumes too great to
bury; long-term impacts
• Paradigm shift: none --
tech fix allows BAU
51. Food Security and Food Production
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
commercial intensified agriculture vs.
organic artisanal agriculture
Fading 3rd horizon
paradigms &
technologies
Transition hydroponics and
paradigms & aeroponics
technologies 2nd horizon
Pockets of
future found cloned-tissue meat
production vs. tourist ‘art’ 1st horizon
In present
cattle
“2010” “2030” “2060” Time
52. Food Security and Food Production
• Aeroponics: NASA
developed, now small-
scale products and
large-scale research /
design centers
• Constraints: costs of
infrastructure
• In-vitro meat:
• Paradigm shift: from PETA has offered
earth to Spaceship Earth a $1 mn “X-
Prize” for science
team that
develops
commercially
viable process
• Constraints:
social attitudes
re: natural foods
- snobbery /
luxury backlash
• Paradigm shift:
from natural to
biodesigned
53. Agriculture and Land Use
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
urban-rural
agricultural divide
Fading 3rd horizon
paradigms &
technologies
Transition urban agriculture &
paradigms & vertical agriculture
technologies 2nd horizon
Pockets of
future found
natural systems agriculture: 1st horizon
In present
melding ecology and agronomy
“2010” “2030” “2060” Time
54. Agriculture and Land Use
• Vertical Farm research centre attracting both professionals and students of design
•Constraints: costs of new installations - finding investors; regulations; retrofitting
costs
• Land Institute: creating prairie-
like perennial agriculture
• Constraints: in development
• Paradigm shift: biomimicry
75. • established in 1962
• 55 ecologically benign buildings
• 4 wind turbines
• Living Machine sewage system
• carbon footprint 1/2 UK average
• community-wide solar water
heating
• community-wide recycling
• own bank and community currency
• UN Habitat Best Practice
Designation
Where is this?
76. • established in 1962
• 55 ecologically benign buildings
• 4 wind turbines
• Living Machine sewage system
• carbon footprint 1/2 UK average
• community-wide solar water
heating
• community-wide recycling
• own bank and community currency
• UN Habitat Best Practice
Designation
Where is this?
77. • established in 1962
• 55 ecologically benign buildings
• 4 wind turbines
• Living Machine sewage system
• carbon footprint 1/2 UK average
• community-wide solar water
heating
• community-wide recycling
• own bank and community currency
• UN Habitat Best Practice
Designation
Where is this?
78. Biomimicry: designing from nature
Scientists, engineers and designers
increasingly innovate by studying
nature’s efficiencies, following Zimbabwe office
complex air
these rules of thumb: conditioning
modeled on air flow
within termite
– Nature runs on sunlight; mound.
– Nature uses only the energy it needs;
– Nature fits form to function;
– Nature recycles everything; Self-cleaning fabrics and glass
modeled on surface structure
of a lotus leaf.
– Nature rewards cooperation;
– Nature banks on diversity;
– Nature demands local expertise;
– Nature curbs excess from within;
– Nature taps the power of limits.
Could this be a new set of working assumptions
for local community planning?
79. The future will be framed by how we answer
five fundamental questions:
DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and
paradigms will emerge to help us make sense
of the world?
RELATE: How will we live together on planet
Earth?
CONNECT: What arts and technologies will
we use to connect people, places, and things?
CREATE: As human beings what will we be
inspired to create?
CONSUME: How will we use the earth’s
resources?
Who creates the future?
80. 4 Thinking Modes:
Logical
Creative
Systemic
Intuitive
You do: use your whole brain
...and your heart.
Two minutes: take each of your four specific future joys, and trade them one-by-one with different people seated around you -- make sure they can read your writing!
Two minutes: take each of your four specific future joys, and trade them one-by-one with different people seated around you -- make sure they can read your writing!
This classic diagram depicts the life cycle of a change, from emerging issue to full-blown trend, both in terms of number of observable cases, and in terms of public awareness.
Note that perceiving weak signals of change requires monitoring publications and activities on the far lower left end of the curve: specialist and fringe publications, blogs, conferences, media output. A robust scanning strategy will monitor change all along this curve, and discriminate between the uses and usefulness of data emerging from different points of the curve. As a change matures, more and more data points are available with which to analyse it: we can speak of the change as a variable which is displaying a trend in some direction. When a change is just emerging, and only a few data points exist with which to characterise it, we can only analyse it via a case study approach.
Trends -- data about change encompassing enough observations for statistical significance -- when mature may be considered conditions of the operating environment that planning should already have taken into account. Globalisation is an example: it has been widely recognised for some time, and the basket of trends which constitute this driver are well documented. It should be on the navigational map. Ongoing environmental scanning acts as radar / sonar, identifying new elements in the territory which have either arisen since the map was drawn, or which are in motion. The access of Chinese teen-agers to broadband Internet -- including the conditions of that access (eg., Google, Yahoo censoring technologies) and the uses to which they are putting that access -- is an example of an emerging issue which is dynamically evolving.
Hybrid, plug-in hybrid:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4227944.html
http://www.iags.org/pih.htm
http://www.soultek.com/clean_energy/hybrid_cars/better_than_hybrid_car_plug_in_hybrid_car.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_hybrid
Purely plug-in: Tesla
http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-13746_7-10108210-48.html?tag=mncol;txt
Plug-in infrastructure: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10167445-54.html?tag=mncol;txt
see also Zipcar, City CarShare
Hydrogen fuel cell transport:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/11/vw-highlights-t.html
re: WV Tiguan Hymotion: “The fuel cell stack in the Tiguan Hymotion is a VW-developed high-temperature fuel cell (HTFC) stack. “
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10169517-54.html
Solving some hydrogen economy constraints:
Car fuel tanks: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16632-gas-tank-of-the-future-takes-a-step-closer.html
Re-fueling infrastructure: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10167457-54.html?tag=mncol;posts
http://news.cnet.com/2300-11392_3-6173071-1.html?tag=mncol;txt
Producing hydrogen for fuel: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/oxygen-0731.html or
http://news.cnet.com/Priming-the-pump-for-hydrogen-fuel/2100-11392_3-6170740.html?tag=mncol;txt
Low Carbon Economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-carbon_economy
Carbon use and management: orbiting carbon observatory
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090219201657.htm
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16650-satellite-to-pinpoint-sources-and-sinks-of-co2.html
Carbon sequestration:
critique: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/07/carbon_sequestration.php
USA programs: http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/sequestration/
http://csite.esd.ornl.gov/
Bacteria capture carbon as CaCO3: http://www.gizmag.com/bacteria-convert-co2-calcium-carbonate/11069/
Methane production:
Innovations: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16621-sunpowered-device-converts-co2-into-fuel.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news
CO2 to methane conversion using nanotubes and sunlight: http://www.physorg.com/news154007555.html
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/nl048301k
Methanol economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanol_economy
Low Carbon Economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-carbon_economy
Carbon use and management: orbiting carbon observatory
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090219201657.htm
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16650-satellite-to-pinpoint-sources-and-sinks-of-co2.html
Carbon sequestration:
critique: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/07/carbon_sequestration.php
USA programs: http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/sequestration/
http://csite.esd.ornl.gov/
Bacteria capture carbon as CaCO3: http://www.gizmag.com/bacteria-convert-co2-calcium-carbonate/11069/
Methane production:
Innovations: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16621-sunpowered-device-converts-co2-into-fuel.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news
CO2 to methane conversion using nanotubes and sunlight: http://www.physorg.com/news154007555.html
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/nl048301k
Methanol economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanol_economy
Urban agriculture / eco-cities:
NYC Sustainable Ag Barge (video): http://videos.howstuffworks.com/discovery/32609-earth-urban-agriculture-blooms-video.htm?sort=most_watched&page=3
http://www.ecopolis.com.au/index.php/proj/
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/001985.html
http://eduspaces.net/geoffwuan/weblog/
http://www.growingedge.com/los-angeles-restaurants-add-rooftop-gardens#more-1414
http://articles.latimes.com/2007/jun/17/realestate/re-green17
Vertical agriculture: http://www.verticalfarm.com/designs.html
http://www.gizmag.com/could-15km-tall-vertical-villages-be-the-solution-to-londons-growing-p/9005/
http://popularchitecture.com/supertower/
Natural systems agriculture: The Land Institute
http://www.landinstitute.org/vnews/display.v/ART/2007/03/15/45facffb6ccd6
from the BBC article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6752795.stm
It's all the brainchild of Columbia University Professor Dickson Despommier.
He and his students took existing greenhouse technology as a starting point and are now convinced that vertical farms are a practical suggestion.
Professor Despommier lists many advantages of this revolutionary kind of agriculture. They include:
Year round crop production in a controlled environment
All produce would be organic as there would be no exposure to wild parasites and bugs
Elimination of environmentally damaging agricultural runoff
Food being produced locally to where it is consumed
And, says the professor, vertical farming would allow some existing traditional farms to be returned to natural forests. Good news in a time of global warming.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Findhorn_Foundation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Findhorn_Foundation
Baroness Prof. Susan Greenfield: futures of neuroscience, cognition, and the human brain. The brain does not distinguish between imagined experience and lived experience: it grows, gains in complexity, adds neurons and interconnections and complexity from the stimulus of thought to the same extent as from the stimulus of life. Thus extrapolating, exploring, envisioning possible and preferred futures does in fact prepare your brain to work more effectively in processing the lived experience of whatever futures may arise.