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11 September 2009
University of Surrey
                        Dream it,
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
  Infinite Futures       then...
2
    Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:




2
      Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!




2
      Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher




2
      Who am I?
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher
      • University of Houston, ISEG in
   ...
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher
      • University of Houston, ISEG in
   ...
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher
      • University of Houston, ISEG in
   ...
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher
      • University of Houston, ISEG in
   ...
• Futurist -- with a degree:
      • Yes! it IS an academic field!
    • Teacher
      • University of Houston, ISEG in
   ...
Name, specialty, trade cards.



               Who are you?
                        © Infinite Futures 2005
Name, specialty, trade cards.




                        © Infinite Futures 2005
Name, specialty, trade cards.




                        © Infinite Futures 2005
4
    Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane




4
     Who is she?
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886




...
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    ...
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    ...
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    ...
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    ...
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    ...
• Ada Lovelace
     • first computer program, 1843
    • Josephine Garis Cochrane
     • patented the dishwasher, 1886
    ...
Possibilities
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Transforming transit and transport?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Extreme sports and cinematic dreams?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Embedding our ICT?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




New skills and careers?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Kinder cures?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




More help with health?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Responsible for our own health?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




A greener lifestyle?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




New roads from new materials?
graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature.




Escaping the “cradle”?
Perils
Fire: the warming world.
Flood: the drowned world.
Fade Away: the aged world.
Transform: mutable worlds.
Potential
Engineers, one word for you:
                 bioscience.
Bioscientists, one word for you:
                      nanotech.
Demographics
                                                          & Ageing


                                        ...
Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness
from its starting point as an emerging issue of
change.                 ...
“3 Horizons” and Horizon Scanning
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
                     STATUS QUO,
                     ...
Fuel and Transport
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
                  fossil fuels &
               internal combusion
  ...
• Prius: most
   successful
   hybrid                          Fuel and Transport
• Zipcar, City
  CarShare,
  Better Plac...
Climate Change, Adaptation, and Amelioration
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview

                    reduce carbon
        ...
Climate Change, Adaptation, and Amelioration
                           • Orbital Carbon        • Nanotubes + catalyst + s...
Food Security and Food Production
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
          commercial intensified agriculture vs.
     ...
Food Security and Food Production
   • Aeroponics: NASA
     developed, now small-
     scale products and
     large-scal...
Agriculture and Land Use
Dominance
of paradigm / worldview
                  urban-rural
               agricultural divid...
Agriculture and Land Use
• Vertical Farm research centre attracting both professionals and students of design

•Constraint...
Small but significant change.
Small but significant change.
Small but significant change.
Small but significant change.
Whole new territories.
From the very tiny...
...to the
monumental...
...to the
monumental...
...to the
monumental...
...to the
monumental...
...to the infinite.
From individual ideas...
...to team synergy.
Foresight:
4 Modes & 5 Key Activities

4 Thinking    5 Foresight Activities:
Modes:         Identify and monitor change;

...
Imagineering
  and Ethics
Imagineering
  and Ethics
Imagineering
  and Ethics
Imagineering
  and Ethics
Imagineering
  and Ethics
Imagineering
  and Ethics
• established in 1962
   • 55 ecologically benign buildings
   • 4 wind turbines
   • Living Machine sewage system
   • ca...
• established in 1962
   • 55 ecologically benign buildings
   • 4 wind turbines
   • Living Machine sewage system
   • ca...
• established in 1962
   • 55 ecologically benign buildings
   • 4 wind turbines
   • Living Machine sewage system
   • ca...
Biomimicry: designing from nature
   Scientists, engineers and designers
   increasingly innovate by studying
   nature’s ...
The future will be framed by how we answer
                       five fundamental questions:

                DEFINE: What...
4 Thinking Modes:
                     Logical

                     Creative

                     Systemic

            ...
...and let’s redefine wealth.
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
                Infinite Futures:
 foresight research and training
               Oxford, England
    ...
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Women's Engineering Society, UK; 11 September 2009

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Keynote on women and innovation and long-term change delivered to the Women's Engineering Society of the UK at their annual conference on 11 September 2009.

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  • This presentation was prepared for the Social Research Association’s seminar on futures studies and social research, London, 7 July 2009.
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • Two minutes: take each of your four specific future joys, and trade them one-by-one with different people seated around you -- make sure they can read your writing!
  • Two minutes: take each of your four specific future joys, and trade them one-by-one with different people seated around you -- make sure they can read your writing!
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/23/gender.uk
    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/15/business/patents-more-women-gain-credit-inventors-some-move-well-beyond-household-problem.html
  • This classic diagram depicts the life cycle of a change, from emerging issue to full-blown trend, both in terms of number of observable cases, and in terms of public awareness.
    Note that perceiving weak signals of change requires monitoring publications and activities on the far lower left end of the curve: specialist and fringe publications, blogs, conferences, media output. A robust scanning strategy will monitor change all along this curve, and discriminate between the uses and usefulness of data emerging from different points of the curve. As a change matures, more and more data points are available with which to analyse it: we can speak of the change as a variable which is displaying a trend in some direction. When a change is just emerging, and only a few data points exist with which to characterise it, we can only analyse it via a case study approach.
  • Trends -- data about change encompassing enough observations for statistical significance -- when mature may be considered conditions of the operating environment that planning should already have taken into account. Globalisation is an example: it has been widely recognised for some time, and the basket of trends which constitute this driver are well documented. It should be on the navigational map. Ongoing environmental scanning acts as radar / sonar, identifying new elements in the territory which have either arisen since the map was drawn, or which are in motion. The access of Chinese teen-agers to broadband Internet -- including the conditions of that access (eg., Google, Yahoo censoring technologies) and the uses to which they are putting that access -- is an example of an emerging issue which is dynamically evolving.
  • Hybrid, plug-in hybrid:
    http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4227944.html
    http://www.iags.org/pih.htm
    http://www.soultek.com/clean_energy/hybrid_cars/better_than_hybrid_car_plug_in_hybrid_car.html
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_hybrid

    Purely plug-in: Tesla
    http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-13746_7-10108210-48.html?tag=mncol;txt

    Plug-in infrastructure: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10167445-54.html?tag=mncol;txt
    see also Zipcar, City CarShare

    Hydrogen fuel cell transport:
    http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/11/vw-highlights-t.html
    re: WV Tiguan Hymotion: “The fuel cell stack in the Tiguan Hymotion is a VW-developed high-temperature fuel cell (HTFC) stack. “
    http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10169517-54.html

    Solving some hydrogen economy constraints:
    Car fuel tanks: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16632-gas-tank-of-the-future-takes-a-step-closer.html
    Re-fueling infrastructure: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10167457-54.html?tag=mncol;posts
    http://news.cnet.com/2300-11392_3-6173071-1.html?tag=mncol;txt
    Producing hydrogen for fuel: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/oxygen-0731.html or
    http://news.cnet.com/Priming-the-pump-for-hydrogen-fuel/2100-11392_3-6170740.html?tag=mncol;txt
  • Low Carbon Economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-carbon_economy

    Carbon use and management: orbiting carbon observatory
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090219201657.htm
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16650-satellite-to-pinpoint-sources-and-sinks-of-co2.html

    Carbon sequestration:
    critique: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/07/carbon_sequestration.php
    USA programs: http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/sequestration/
    http://csite.esd.ornl.gov/

    Bacteria capture carbon as CaCO3: http://www.gizmag.com/bacteria-convert-co2-calcium-carbonate/11069/

    Methane production:
    Innovations: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16621-sunpowered-device-converts-co2-into-fuel.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news
    CO2 to methane conversion using nanotubes and sunlight: http://www.physorg.com/news154007555.html
    http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/nl048301k

    Methanol economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanol_economy
  • Low Carbon Economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-carbon_economy

    Carbon use and management: orbiting carbon observatory
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090219201657.htm
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16650-satellite-to-pinpoint-sources-and-sinks-of-co2.html

    Carbon sequestration:
    critique: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/07/carbon_sequestration.php
    USA programs: http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/sequestration/
    http://csite.esd.ornl.gov/

    Bacteria capture carbon as CaCO3: http://www.gizmag.com/bacteria-convert-co2-calcium-carbonate/11069/

    Methane production:
    Innovations: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16621-sunpowered-device-converts-co2-into-fuel.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news
    CO2 to methane conversion using nanotubes and sunlight: http://www.physorg.com/news154007555.html
    http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/nl048301k

    Methanol economy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanol_economy
  • Aeroponics:
    http://www.straitstimes.com/vgn-ext-templating/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=8b655d4e63d3f110VgnVCM100000430a0a0aRCRD&vgnextchannel=cf70758920e39010VgnVCM1000000a35010aRCRD
    http://www.gizmag.com/global-food-crisis-vertical-aeroponic-farming/11019/
    http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/03/indoor_gardenin.php
    http://home.howstuffworks.com/lawn-garden/professional-landscaping/alternative-methods/aeroponics.htm
    http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/technologies/aeroponic_plants.html

    In vitro meat:
    http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/04/invitro_meat
    http://www.labtechnologist.com/Applications/Cultured-meat-made-for-the-masses
    http://www.innovationwatch.com/choiceisyours/choiceisyours-2007-05-15.htm
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19926635.600-comment-labgrown-meat-could-ease-food-shortage.html
    http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/06/dutch_scientist_1.php
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/us/21meat.html?hp
    http://www.invitromeat.org/
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/features/article3894871.ece
    http://www.peta.org/feat_in_vitro_contest.asp
  • Urban agriculture / eco-cities:
    NYC Sustainable Ag Barge (video): http://videos.howstuffworks.com/discovery/32609-earth-urban-agriculture-blooms-video.htm?sort=most_watched&page=3
    http://www.ecopolis.com.au/index.php/proj/
    http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/001985.html
    http://eduspaces.net/geoffwuan/weblog/
    http://www.growingedge.com/los-angeles-restaurants-add-rooftop-gardens#more-1414
    http://articles.latimes.com/2007/jun/17/realestate/re-green17

    Vertical agriculture: http://www.verticalfarm.com/designs.html
    http://www.gizmag.com/could-15km-tall-vertical-villages-be-the-solution-to-londons-growing-p/9005/
    http://popularchitecture.com/supertower/

    Natural systems agriculture: The Land Institute
    http://www.landinstitute.org/vnews/display.v/ART/2007/03/15/45facffb6ccd6

    from the BBC article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6752795.stm
    It's all the brainchild of Columbia University Professor Dickson Despommier.
    He and his students took existing greenhouse technology as a starting point and are now convinced that vertical farms are a practical suggestion.
    Professor Despommier lists many advantages of this revolutionary kind of agriculture. They include:
    Year round crop production in a controlled environment
    All produce would be organic as there would be no exposure to wild parasites and bugs
    Elimination of environmentally damaging agricultural runoff
    Food being produced locally to where it is consumed
    And, says the professor, vertical farming would allow some existing traditional farms to be returned to natural forests. Good news in a time of global warming.
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Findhorn_Foundation
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Findhorn_Foundation
  • Baroness Prof. Susan Greenfield: futures of neuroscience, cognition, and the human brain. The brain does not distinguish between imagined experience and lived experience: it grows, gains in complexity, adds neurons and interconnections and complexity from the stimulus of thought to the same extent as from the stimulus of life. Thus extrapolating, exploring, envisioning possible and preferred futures does in fact prepare your brain to work more effectively in processing the lived experience of whatever futures may arise.
  • Transcript of "Women's Engineering Society, UK; 11 September 2009"

    1. 1. 11 September 2009 University of Surrey Dream it, Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures then do it. Engineering and innovation -- building our futures. Women’s Engineering Society
    2. 2. 2 Who am I?
    3. 3. • Futurist -- with a degree: 2 Who am I?
    4. 4. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! 2 Who am I?
    5. 5. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher 2 Who am I?
    6. 6. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher • University of Houston, ISEG in Lisbon, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore 2 Who am I?
    7. 7. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher • University of Houston, ISEG in Lisbon, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore • Researcher 2 Who am I?
    8. 8. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher • University of Houston, ISEG in Lisbon, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore • Researcher • Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios, Future of Philanthropy 2 Who am I?
    9. 9. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher • University of Houston, ISEG in Lisbon, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore • Researcher • Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios, Future of Philanthropy • Process Designer 2 Who am I?
    10. 10. • Futurist -- with a degree: • Yes! it IS an academic field! • Teacher • University of Houston, ISEG in Lisbon, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore • Researcher • Defra Scan, HSE Scenarios, Future of Philanthropy • Process Designer • Natural England scenarios compendium, Land Use Futures foresight process 2 Who am I?
    11. 11. Name, specialty, trade cards. Who are you? © Infinite Futures 2005
    12. 12. Name, specialty, trade cards. © Infinite Futures 2005
    13. 13. Name, specialty, trade cards. © Infinite Futures 2005
    14. 14. 4 Who is she?
    15. 15. • Ada Lovelace 4 Who is she?
    16. 16. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 4 Who is she?
    17. 17. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane 4 Who is she?
    18. 18. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 4 Who is she?
    19. 19. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz 4 Who is she?
    20. 20. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz • sold the coffee filter, 1908 4 Who is she?
    21. 21. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz • sold the coffee filter, 1908 • Emily Canham 4 Who is she?
    22. 22. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz • sold the coffee filter, 1908 • Emily Canham • 2-zone headlights, 1908 4 Who is she?
    23. 23. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz • sold the coffee filter, 1908 • Emily Canham • 2-zone headlights, 1908 • Stephanie Kwolek 4 Who is she?
    24. 24. • Ada Lovelace • first computer program, 1843 • Josephine Garis Cochrane • patented the dishwasher, 1886 • Melitta Benz • sold the coffee filter, 1908 • Emily Canham • 2-zone headlights, 1908 • Stephanie Kwolek • Kevlar, 1966 4 Who is she?
    25. 25. Possibilities
    26. 26. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Transforming transit and transport?
    27. 27. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Extreme sports and cinematic dreams?
    28. 28. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Embedding our ICT?
    29. 29. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. New skills and careers?
    30. 30. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Kinder cures?
    31. 31. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. More help with health?
    32. 32. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Responsible for our own health?
    33. 33. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. A greener lifestyle?
    34. 34. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. New roads from new materials?
    35. 35. graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Escaping the “cradle”?
    36. 36. Perils
    37. 37. Fire: the warming world.
    38. 38. Flood: the drowned world.
    39. 39. Fade Away: the aged world.
    40. 40. Transform: mutable worlds.
    41. 41. Potential
    42. 42. Engineers, one word for you: bioscience.
    43. 43. Bioscientists, one word for you: nanotech.
    44. 44. Demographics & Ageing Engineering Integration of Energy Technologies Nanotechnology data from the Health & Safety Lab’s horizon scan and the Advanced Materials & Recycling the Future Robotics Foresight Human Performance Horizon Enhancement Scanning Nanotechnologies Pervasive Centre’s Sigma Computing and Delta Scans. Hydrogen Economy Sensors & Tracking Cyber Security • From multi Carbon Dioxide disciplinary and Body & Mind Sciences Sequestration transdisciplinary Genetic Testing • to post- Information Handling New & Emerging disciplinary: & KM Pests & Diseases • blur and smear will Biotechnology Network Interactions drive innovation Terahertz Technology Security Robotics (Info & Behaviour) & AI Flexible Working & Employment Figure 4 OSI/HSC’s 8 S&T themes Do Keyboards Have a and HSE’s “Current Issues.” Future
    45. 45. Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change. system limits; problems develop; unintended impacts Number of cases; global; multiple dispersed degree of cases; trends and drivers 3rd horizon public awareness institutions and government newspapers; news magazines; broadcast media laypersons’ magazines; local; few websites; documentaries cases; emerging Pockets of specialists’ journals and issues future found websites In present scientists; artists; radicals; mystics “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
    46. 46. “3 Horizons” and Horizon Scanning Dominance of paradigm / worldview STATUS QUO, MOMENTUM, Fading INERTIA 3rd horizon paradigms & technologies CURRENT TRENDS & Transition DRIVERS paradigms & technologies 2nd horizon EMERGING Pockets of ISSUES OF future found CHANGE 1st horizon In present “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
    47. 47. Fuel and Transport Dominance of paradigm / worldview fossil fuels & internal combusion engines Fading 3rd horizon paradigms & technologies Transition hybrid gas- paradigms & electric; hybrid plug-ins; technologies plug-ins 2nd horizon Pockets of future found hydrogen fuel-cell 1st horizon In present “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
    48. 48. • Prius: most successful hybrid Fuel and Transport • Zipcar, City CarShare, Better Place: rentable plug- in hybrids • Tesla all- electric roadster • Hempstead, NY: hydrogen fuel • VW Hymotion: station fuel cell • Las Vegas, NV: prototype solar-powered • Constraints: hydrogen fuel on-board fuel station storage; fueling infrastructure; fuel production • Critique: still an individualist paradigm • Possible paradigm shift: communitarianism ( ZipCar, City CarShare)
    49. 49. Climate Change, Adaptation, and Amelioration Dominance of paradigm / worldview reduce carbon footprint: amend Fading resource use 3rd horizon paradigms & practices technologies carbon sequestration Transition paradigms & technologies 2nd horizon Pockets of future found back to gas: convert CO2 to 1st horizon In present methane -- or CaCO3 “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
    50. 50. Climate Change, Adaptation, and Amelioration • Orbital Carbon • Nanotubes + catalyst + sunlight + H20 + CO2 Observatory = methane and assorted other fuel gases. (just crashed) 351 362 Column CO2 (ppm) • Geosequestration: US government backing • Constraints: capture at smokestack inefficient; volumes too great to bury; long-term impacts • Paradigm shift: none -- tech fix allows BAU
    51. 51. Food Security and Food Production Dominance of paradigm / worldview commercial intensified agriculture vs. organic artisanal agriculture Fading 3rd horizon paradigms & technologies Transition hydroponics and paradigms & aeroponics technologies 2nd horizon Pockets of future found cloned-tissue meat production vs. tourist ‘art’ 1st horizon In present cattle “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
    52. 52. Food Security and Food Production • Aeroponics: NASA developed, now small- scale products and large-scale research / design centers • Constraints: costs of infrastructure • In-vitro meat: • Paradigm shift: from PETA has offered earth to Spaceship Earth a $1 mn “X- Prize” for science team that develops commercially viable process • Constraints: social attitudes re: natural foods - snobbery / luxury backlash • Paradigm shift: from natural to biodesigned
    53. 53. Agriculture and Land Use Dominance of paradigm / worldview urban-rural agricultural divide Fading 3rd horizon paradigms & technologies Transition urban agriculture & paradigms & vertical agriculture technologies 2nd horizon Pockets of future found natural systems agriculture: 1st horizon In present melding ecology and agronomy “2010” “2030” “2060” Time
    54. 54. Agriculture and Land Use • Vertical Farm research centre attracting both professionals and students of design •Constraints: costs of new installations - finding investors; regulations; retrofitting costs • Land Institute: creating prairie- like perennial agriculture • Constraints: in development • Paradigm shift: biomimicry
    55. 55. Small but significant change.
    56. 56. Small but significant change.
    57. 57. Small but significant change.
    58. 58. Small but significant change.
    59. 59. Whole new territories.
    60. 60. From the very tiny...
    61. 61. ...to the monumental...
    62. 62. ...to the monumental...
    63. 63. ...to the monumental...
    64. 64. ...to the monumental...
    65. 65. ...to the infinite.
    66. 66. From individual ideas...
    67. 67. ...to team synergy.
    68. 68. Foresight: 4 Modes & 5 Key Activities 4 Thinking 5 Foresight Activities: Modes: Identify and monitor change; Logical Map and critique impacts; Creative Imagine alternative outcomes; Systemic Envision preferred futures; Intuitive Organise and act to create change. 43
    69. 69. Imagineering and Ethics
    70. 70. Imagineering and Ethics
    71. 71. Imagineering and Ethics
    72. 72. Imagineering and Ethics
    73. 73. Imagineering and Ethics
    74. 74. Imagineering and Ethics
    75. 75. • established in 1962 • 55 ecologically benign buildings • 4 wind turbines • Living Machine sewage system • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average • community-wide solar water heating • community-wide recycling • own bank and community currency • UN Habitat Best Practice Designation Where is this?
    76. 76. • established in 1962 • 55 ecologically benign buildings • 4 wind turbines • Living Machine sewage system • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average • community-wide solar water heating • community-wide recycling • own bank and community currency • UN Habitat Best Practice Designation Where is this?
    77. 77. • established in 1962 • 55 ecologically benign buildings • 4 wind turbines • Living Machine sewage system • carbon footprint 1/2 UK average • community-wide solar water heating • community-wide recycling • own bank and community currency • UN Habitat Best Practice Designation Where is this?
    78. 78. Biomimicry: designing from nature Scientists, engineers and designers increasingly innovate by studying nature’s efficiencies, following Zimbabwe office complex air these rules of thumb: conditioning modeled on air flow within termite – Nature runs on sunlight; mound. – Nature uses only the energy it needs; – Nature fits form to function; – Nature recycles everything; Self-cleaning fabrics and glass modeled on surface structure of a lotus leaf. – Nature rewards cooperation; – Nature banks on diversity; – Nature demands local expertise; – Nature curbs excess from within; – Nature taps the power of limits. Could this be a new set of working assumptions for local community planning?
    79. 79. The future will be framed by how we answer five fundamental questions: DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world? RELATE: How will we live together on planet Earth? CONNECT: What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things? CREATE: As human beings what will we be inspired to create? CONSUME: How will we use the earth’s resources? Who creates the future?
    80. 80. 4 Thinking Modes: Logical Creative Systemic Intuitive You do: use your whole brain ...and your heart.
    81. 81. ...and let’s redefine wealth.
    82. 82. Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures: foresight research and training Oxford, England http:// www.infinitefutures.com Thank you.
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