LittleBig APF 2009: Roads Less Travelled

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A precis of the article "Roads Less Travelled" (in press, Journal of Futures Studies), comparing four scenario methods.

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  • LittleBig APF 2009: Roads Less Travelled

    1. 1. Teaser Trailer
    2. 2. Coming to a Journal of Futures Studies near you this spring....
    3. 3. “Roads Less Travelled”
    4. 4. Six plucky explorers...
    5. 5. Four paths to adventure...
    6. 6. What did they find on their heroes’ journey?
    7. 7. Six plucky explorers: • Joe Ballantyne, The Futures Company • Andrew Curry, The Futures Company • Neil MacDonald, Gondwana Development Associates • Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures • Andy Stubbings, The Futures Company • Victoria Ward, Sparknow
    8. 8. Four paths to adventure: • Different methods, different output? • Scenario cross (2X2 uncertainties) • Causal layered analysis (post-structuralism) • Manoa (turbulence) • Scenario archetypes (images) • Identical focus: future of civil society • Identical feedstock*: Carnegie UK critical issues database (project complete and in public domain; used CLA in process)
    9. 9. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes by definition, one scenario often keeps one foot grounded in BAU/PTE, and others radically “official view”; pushes detail different worldviews; towards symmetry around one tight focus on changed level, eg, national, or organisational; character of civil society itself; generates ‘policy speak’ cross-comparison simple Difference ‘problematises’ present to create turbulence transforms fabric of life radically different futures; scale can and social dynamics, including differ across scenarios: contradictions and tensions within eg, one scenario international, one the future society; rich detail across national, one local / regional - all levels within one scenario; consistent cross-comparison difficult cross-comparison complex Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    10. 10. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes by definition, one scenario often keeps one foot grounded in BAU/PTE, and others radically “official view”; pushes detail different worldviews; towards symmetry around one tight focus on changed level, eg, national, or organisational; character of civil society itself; generates ‘policy speak’ cross-comparison simple ‘problematises’ present to create turbulence transforms fabric of life radically different futures; scale can and social dynamics, including differ across scenarios: contradictions and tensions within eg, one scenario international, one the future society; rich detail across national, one local / regional - all levels within one scenario; consistent cross-comparison difficult cross-comparison complex Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    11. 11. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes by definition, one scenario often keeps one foot grounded in BAU/PTE, and others radically “official view”; pushes detail different worldviews; towards symmetry around one tight focus on changed level, eg, national, or organisational; character of civil society itself; generates ‘policy speak’ cross-comparison simple how different are the scenarios from the present and from each other? ‘problematises’ present to create turbulence transforms fabric of life radically different futures; scale can and social dynamics, including differ across scenarios: contradictions and tensions within eg, one scenario international, one the future society; rich detail across national, one local / regional - all levels within one scenario; consistent cross-comparison difficult cross-comparison complex Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    12. 12. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes based on different worldviews as does not generate big ‘scaffolding’ - ultimate depth questions re: transformations depends on array of in deep structures worldviews / archetypes on offer Depth digs into / examines paradigms, resulting stories can include deep worldviews, myths, metaphors - transformations, but as a works best if participants embody serendipitous result of chaotic many cultural perspectives change acting on deep structures Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    13. 13. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes based on different worldviews as does not generate big ‘scaffolding’ - ultimate depth questions re: transformations depends on array of in deep structures worldviews / archetypes on offer digs into / examines paradigms, resulting stories can include deep worldviews, myths, metaphors - transformations, but as a works best if participants embody serendipitous result of chaotic many cultural perspectives change acting on deep structures Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    14. 14. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes based on different worldviews as does not generate big ‘scaffolding’ - ultimate depth questions re: transformations depends on array of in deep structures worldviews / archetypes on offer how deeply do the scenarios examine / question underlying cultural structures? digs into / examines paradigms, resulting stories can include deep worldviews, myths, metaphors - transformations, but as a works best if participants embody serendipitous result of chaotic many cultural perspectives change acting on deep structures Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    15. 15. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes “live” product more a chain of events only if process snapshot - narrative arc describes how the base worldview usually added during write-up emerged to prominence Development strong development arcs emerging describes futures of different from impact cascades; worldviews, not necessarily why “gets closest to answering the or how the worldviews changed question of how the futures evolved” Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    16. 16. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes “live” product more a chain of events only if process snapshot - narrative arc describes how the base worldview usually added during write-up emerged to prominence strong development arcs emerging describes futures of different from impact cascades; worldviews, not necessarily why “gets closest to answering the or how the worldviews changed question of how the futures evolved” Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    17. 17. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes “live” product more a chain of events only if process snapshot - narrative arc describes how the base worldview usually added during write-up emerged to prominence to what extent does the method help create a narrative / development arc? strong development arcs emerging describes futures of different from impact cascades; worldviews, not necessarily why “gets closest to answering the or how the worldviews changed question of how the futures evolved” Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    18. 18. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes “dry and clever; analytical, a logical sorting process; distanced, and thoughtful” requires participants be well “the ‘feel’ is intellectual, like acquainted with the archetypes; problem-solving: filling in matrix “schematic and rather static details feels a bit of a slog” (but we were really tired)” Participation “witty and well referenced, quite complex, intellectual rather than “playful; creative; energising” clever” Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    19. 19. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes “dry and clever; analytical, a logical sorting process; distanced, and thoughtful” requires participants be well “the ‘feel’ is intellectual, like acquainted with the archetypes; problem-solving: filling in matrix “schematic and rather static details feels a bit of a slog” (but we were really tired)” “witty and well referenced, quite complex, intellectual rather than “playful; creative; energising” clever” Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    20. 20. Scenario Cross Scenario Archetypes “dry and clever; analytical, a logical sorting process; distanced, and thoughtful” requires participants be well “the ‘feel’ is intellectual, like acquainted with the archetypes; problem-solving: filling in matrix “schematic and rather static details feels a bit of a slog” (but we were really tired)” what does the process feel like as a participatory experience / conversation? “witty and well referenced, quite complex, intellectual rather than “playful; creative; energising” clever” Causal Layered Analysis Manoa
    21. 21. Do different scenario building methods generate distinctively different output?
    22. 22. YES.

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