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“…for there is nothing
either good or bad,
but thinking makes it so.”
Wendy Schultz
Infinite Futures
ICT2013
Vilnius Lithu...
“…for there is nothing either good or bad,
but thinking makes it so.”

• Today, I’ll leave the facts and forecasts to othe...
xkcd
BEWARE OF STRAIGHT LINES
xkcd

BEWARE OF STRAIGHT LINES
• Change in living systems – particularly in
human systems – is neither simple nor ballisti...
CHANGE EVOLVES IN OVERLAPPING WAVES & TURBULENCE

THREE HORIZONS FRAMEWORK

MANAGER

Eg, MUSI
C, MOVIE
S, CDs, D
VDs

ENTR...
CHANGE EVOLVES IN OVERLAPPING WAVES & TURBULENCE

THREE HORIZONS FRAMEWORK

• The operating assumptions of today are built...
The Crapularity
3D printing + spam +
micropayments = tribbles
that you get billed for, as it
replicates wildly out of cont...
The Crapularity
3D printing + spam +
micropayments = tribbles
that you get billed for, as it
replicates wildly out of
cont...
MANOA SCENARIO BUILDING
MANOA SCENARIO BUILDING

• Try brainstorming the impacts – and the
impacts of the impacts – of three different
new ideas y...
The Grouponularity
In which aggregate consumer
purchasing power + pricing algorithms
+ applied captology, allows your
moth...
The Grouponularity
In which aggregate consumer
purchasing power + pricing
algorithms + applied
captology, allows your moth...
BEWARE
the
LONE
WOLF
FUTURE
http://bethwalshphotography.wordpress.com/2013/04/13/lone-wolf/
BEWARE
the
LONE
WOLF
FUTURE

• Change is not binary, and the
future is not monocular
• We don’t face a single future –
no ...
CHANGES
GENERATE
MYRIAD
POSSIBLE
FUTURES
CHANGES
GENERATE
MYRIAD
POSSIBLE
FUTURES

• Multiple emergent
futures are possible given
different initial
conditions; com...
BEWARE OF INTENTIONS
BEWARE OF INTENTIONS

• So you’ve invented a new technology, or a
new service, or a new form of organization
• What you de...
BEWARE OF
INTENTIONS
A diagnostic tool
becomes
an artist’s medium

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ABOUND
BEWARE OF INTENTIONS
…or, as with so many media,
a new avenue for porn

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ABOUND
Verge General
Practice Framework
for Futures Studies
and Foresight

WHERE WILL UNINTENDED
CONSEQUENCES ARISE?
Verge General Practice
Framework for
Futures Studies and
Foresight
Dr Richard Lum

• Artists will use the invention as
a n...
BE AWARE OF YOUR LENSES
• How do you see the world?
• Who else sees the world that
way – what are the embedded
values, myths, metaphors of
your as...
OTHERS MAY USE DIFFERENT FILTERS
Causal Layered Analysis

Sohail Inayatullah

OTHERS MAY USE DIFFERENT FILTERS
• You can’t just change the buzz
• You can’t just invent a new system
• You need to engage with, and
develop, different wo...
“The world as we have created it is a process of our thinking.
It cannot be changed without changing our thinking.”
Albert...
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Quick tools for thinking about future impacts of change: 'for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so'

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The presentation slides - interspersed with my 'speaking notes' slides - from my keynote panel presentation at ICT 2013 in Vilnius on 7 November 2013. Other panellists described emerging changes; I was asked to help people think about the impacts and implications of those changes, and so offered quick versions of the Three Horizons, Futures Wheels and Manoa Scenario Building, Verge, and Causal Layered Analysis - in 15 minutes.

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  • http://www-personal.umich.edu/~agrxray/amary.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1299379/Extraordinary-x-ray-images-flowers-seen-before.html
  • http://www-personal.umich.edu/~agrxray/amary.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1299379/Extraordinary-x-ray-images-flowers-seen-before.html
  • http://www-personal.umich.edu/~agrxray/amary.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1299379/Extraordinary-x-ray-images-flowers-seen-before.html
  • http://www-personal.umich.edu/~agrxray/amary.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1299379/Extraordinary-x-ray-images-flowers-seen-before.html
  • Transcript of "Quick tools for thinking about future impacts of change: 'for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so' "

    1. 1. “…for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.” Wendy Schultz Infinite Futures ICT2013 Vilnius Lithuania 7 November 2013
    2. 2. “…for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.” • Today, I’ll leave the facts and forecasts to others • I’m here to suggest how to think about the facts and forecasts they’ve offered Wendy Schultz Infinite Futures Vilnius Lithuania 7 November 2013
    3. 3. xkcd
    4. 4. BEWARE OF STRAIGHT LINES
    5. 5. xkcd BEWARE OF STRAIGHT LINES • Change in living systems – particularly in human systems – is neither simple nor ballistic • Because we are curious, creative, inventive, playful – and contrary, addictive, and perverse
    6. 6. CHANGE EVOLVES IN OVERLAPPING WAVES & TURBULENCE THREE HORIZONS FRAMEWORK MANAGER Eg, MUSI C, MOVIE S, CDs, D VDs ENTREPRENEUR Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES – transformational disruptor iTunes VISIONARY Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES – paradigm buster Napster
    7. 7. CHANGE EVOLVES IN OVERLAPPING WAVES & TURBULENCE THREE HORIZONS FRAMEWORK • The operating assumptions of today are built on successful responses to past waves of change: Those assumptions create stability, but also resist change • The visionaries and inventors of today challenge those assumptions – but often in ways that are ultimately unworkable: they disrupt paradigms and perspectives • Entrepreneurs build on visions to create the marketable goods and services – they transform capacity – and create new operating assumptions
    8. 8. The Crapularity 3D printing + spam + micropayments = tribbles that you get billed for, as it replicates wildly out of control. 90% of everything is rubbish, and it's all in your spare room – or someone else's spare room, which you're forced to rent through AirBnB. Source: Alternatives to the Singularity, online; also at Journal of Futures Studies: “The Singularity is Boring: An Open, Collaborative „Mock-up‟” http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S06.pdf A pile of worthless "crapjects" (neologism coined by @iftf)
    9. 9. The Crapularity 3D printing + spam + micropayments = tribbles that you get billed for, as it replicates wildly out of control. 90% of everything is rubbish, and it's all in your spare room – or someone else's spare room, which you're forced to rent through AirBnB. • You may have invented something ‘insanely great’ • But when you set it free, it will immediately and unpredictably interact with everything else in its context A pile of worthless "crapjects" (neologism coined by @iftf) Source: Alternatives to the Singularity, online; also at Journal of Futures Studies: “The Singularity is Boring: An Open, Collaborative „Mock-up‟” http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S06.pdf
    10. 10. MANOA SCENARIO BUILDING
    11. 11. MANOA SCENARIO BUILDING • Try brainstorming the impacts – and the impacts of the impacts – of three different new ideas you’ve heard discussed today • Now ask yourself, ‘what next new thing will the colliding impacts of those three changes generate?’
    12. 12. The Grouponularity In which aggregate consumer purchasing power + pricing algorithms + applied captology, allows your mother (working in concert with everyone else's mother) to reduce the price of 99% of mainstream consumer goods to ~0. The global economy is replaced by something almost equally improbable. Unfortunately, it's comprised entirely of jet-ski adventure days, bread makers, and underwhelming restaurant meals. Source: Alternatives to the Singularity, online; also at Journal of Futures Studies: “The Singularity is Boring: An Open, Collaborative „Mock-up‟” http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S06.pdf
    13. 13. The Grouponularity In which aggregate consumer purchasing power + pricing algorithms + applied captology, allows your mother (working in concert with everyone else's mother) to reduce the price of 99% of mainstream consumer goods to ~0. The global economy is replaced by something almost equally improbable. Unfortunately, it's comprised entirely of jet-ski adventure days, bread makers, and underwhelming restaurant meals. Source: Alternatives to the Singularity, online; also at Journal of Futures Studies: “The Singularity is Boring: An Open, Collaborative „Mock-up‟” http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S06.pdf • How will those colliding impacts affect society? • What counter-intuitive results emerge when a change that’s good on a small scale goes global?
    14. 14. BEWARE the LONE WOLF FUTURE http://bethwalshphotography.wordpress.com/2013/04/13/lone-wolf/
    15. 15. BEWARE the LONE WOLF FUTURE • Change is not binary, and the future is not monocular • We don’t face a single future – no matter how compelling new technologies are, or how much momentum they seem to have http://bethwalshphotography.wordpress.com/2013/04/13/lone-wolf/
    16. 16. CHANGES GENERATE MYRIAD POSSIBLE FUTURES
    17. 17. CHANGES GENERATE MYRIAD POSSIBLE FUTURES • Multiple emergent futures are possible given different initial conditions; complex interactions of multiple onrushing changes; and a complex context that includes cultural diversity and all of your individual points of view
    18. 18. BEWARE OF INTENTIONS
    19. 19. BEWARE OF INTENTIONS • So you’ve invented a new technology, or a new service, or a new form of organization • What you designed it to do is not necessarily what your fellow humans will actually do with it.
    20. 20. BEWARE OF INTENTIONS A diagnostic tool becomes an artist’s medium UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ABOUND
    21. 21. BEWARE OF INTENTIONS …or, as with so many media, a new avenue for porn UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ABOUND
    22. 22. Verge General Practice Framework for Futures Studies and Foresight WHERE WILL UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ARISE?
    23. 23. Verge General Practice Framework for Futures Studies and Foresight Dr Richard Lum • Artists will use the invention as a new medium • Children will turn it into a game • … and of course, someone somewhere will use it to create porn • Use guides like Verge to explore how your invention will reverberate through all the arenas of human endeavour WHERE WILL UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ARISE?
    24. 24. BE AWARE OF YOUR LENSES
    25. 25. • How do you see the world? • Who else sees the world that way – what are the embedded values, myths, metaphors of your assumptions? • How do different values, myths, and metaphors drive responses to your inventions / ideas / policy initiatives? BE AWARE OF YOUR LENSES
    26. 26. OTHERS MAY USE DIFFERENT FILTERS
    27. 27. Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah OTHERS MAY USE DIFFERENT FILTERS
    28. 28. • You can’t just change the buzz • You can’t just invent a new system • You need to engage with, and develop, different worldviews • Re-perceive the world with a different metaphor, a new myth • Ask the next five people you meet for their myths and metaphors for the worlds and fuures we are inventing. OTHERS MAY USE DIFFERENT FILTERS
    29. 29. “The world as we have created it is a process of our thinking. It cannot be changed without changing our thinking.” Albert Einstein “Nothing is so painful to the human mind as great and sudden change.” Mary Shelley Thank you. Wendy Schultz @wendyinfutures
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