Future Outlook on Urban Competitiveness
 

Future Outlook on Urban Competitiveness

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Adobe PDF file of the Keynote slidedeck from my 22 June 2010 presentation to the Global Innovation Forum in Seoul, Korea. I was invited to speak on the future context for competitiveness in cities; I ...

Adobe PDF file of the Keynote slidedeck from my 22 June 2010 presentation to the Global Innovation Forum in Seoul, Korea. I was invited to speak on the future context for competitiveness in cities; I spoke last and most of the preceding speakers took a very econometric view. I wanted to emphasise that measuring and comparing competitiveness assumes a paradigm or model within which a city might be competitive -- and that economic and other paradigms might be very different across our possible futures. [Note that because it is an Adobe PDF file, it is missing some images and transitions available in the more graphically sophisticated Keyote environment.]

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Future Outlook on Urban Competitiveness Future Outlook on Urban Competitiveness Presentation Transcript

  • Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Future Outlook Director, Infinite Futures on Principal, SAMI Consulting Advisory Board, Shaping Tomorrow Urban Competitiveness Fellow, World Futures Studies Federation Fellow, Royal Society for the Arts Challenging + Complex + Creative + Courageous = Competitive
  • Five Key Activities of Integrated Foresight Identify & Critique Imagine Envision Plan & Monitor Change Change the Possible the Preferred Implement Identify patterns of Examine primary, Identify, analyze, and Identify, analyze, Identify stakeholders, Integrated change: trends in chosen secondary, tertiary impacts; build alternative images of and articulate images of resources; clarify goals; design Foresight variables, inequities in the future, preferred strategies; changes in impacts; or futures, or organize cycles, and differential ’scenarios.’ ’visions.’ action; create emerging access, etc. change. issues of change. Why explore possible futures?
  • Five Key Activities of Integrated Foresight Identify & Critique Imagine Envision Plan & Monitor Change Change the Possible the Preferred Implement Identify patterns of Examine primary, Identify, analyze, and Identify, analyze, Identify stakeholders, Integrated change: trends in chosen secondary, tertiary impacts; build alternative images of and articulate images of resources; clarify goals; design Foresight variables, inequities in the future, preferred strategies; changes in impacts; or futures, or organize cycles, and differential ’scenarios.’ ’visions.’ action; create emerging access, etc. change. issues of change. Why explore possible futures?
  • Because change happenz... The original presentation featured an embedded video of the Zurich “Change happenz” ad, which may be found on YouTube here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-ktjF2bXIo&feature=related. This was to underscore the notion that plans rest on assumptions and mental models, and change renders our assumptions and mental models no longer fit for purpose, or transforms them entirely - as acknowledged by a major global corporation.
  • ...and fortune favours the prepared mind.
  • ...and fortune favours the prepared mind.
  • Noh Seung-yul, age 18. 2010 Malaysian Open Golf Champion He’ll be 58 in 2050. Beneficiaries.
  • There are no future facts...
  • ...and no such thing as ‘business as usual.’
  • Watersheds.
  • “3 Horizons” and Horizon Scanning Dominance of paradigm / worldview STATUS QUO, MOMENTUM, INERTIA 3rd horizon Invent, Develop, Deploy Fading paradigms & technologies Research, Demonstrate, Disrupt CURRENT 2nd horizon Transition TRENDS & paradigms & DRIVERS technologies Envision, Explore, Embody EMERGING Pockets of ISSUES OF future found CHANGE In present 1st horizon Time “present” “future” Sharpe, Hodgson, Curry
  • What are you assuming? 10
  • Working assumptions,eg: 1. Agricultural land only contributes 2.8% to South Korea’s GDP; 2. Patterns of housing and standards of living remain essentially the same or improve; 3. Globalization and its advantages continue; 4. Human values hardwired into us as social primates; and 5. Most significant market actions are human.
  • 2050 possibilities suggested by scanning: 1. In 2050, agricultural land contributes SIGNIFICANTLY more to the South Korean economy; 2. In 2050, houses / housing developments take up CONSIDERABLY more space; 3. By 2050, the era of cheap-transport-derived globalization advantages is long gone; 4. In 2050, we are not your grandfather’s primates; 5. In 2050, the internet will be smarter than we are: by 2018, the internet will have a million times as many nodes as the human brain, and it will have senses, courtesy of the cameras and microphones and compasses and accelerometers built into our cell-phones, not to mention the internet of things...
  • Future Cities: Images and Designs
  • Future Cities: Images and Designs
  • The End of the World as We Know It Life / Culture / Discovery / Origin Global Warming Global Cooling Demography Society Innovation Fire Fade Decreasing stability Accelerating change; Desertification; slow and security locally nano-bio-info-cogno End of interglacial, Slow decline in Gradual sea-level rise; aquifer and internationally as convergence; ability transition to fertility worldwide Changes intrusion; agricultural people compete for to manipulate glaciation. followed by global decline. scarce resources. “nature” / ourselves. population decline. Flood Meltdown Sustain New “little ice age,” Famine: starvation; Singularity: radical Increased sea melt, generated by, eg, depressed immune Mass civil unrest and innovation feedback Abrupt partial collapse of increased volcanic systems; resistant border / regional blows away human / Changes the West Antarctic dust and/or shifts in infectious agents and conflicts; failed states machine /natural Ice Shelf: sea level Gulf Stream. zoogenesis. explode. boundaries. rises 1 metre. Ice Plague Blowup Transform Warlord deploys Discovery of Grand Asteroid strike Wild Card / Super-volcano or Global plague: bio-WMD against Unifying Theory / superheats Earth’s Discontinuities Nuclear Winter population collapse. neighbouring “Theory of atmosphere. territory. Everything”
  • Transform: mutable cities.
  • Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will Transform be ended. Vernor Vinge, On the Singularity presented at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, 30-31 March 1993 (http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html). In the late 21st C, the convergence of innovations in information technology, bio- engineering, nanotechnology, and the cognitive sciences created a self-reinforcing acceleration of transformative change. These innovations were underpinned by the paradigm shifts emerging from complexity and chaos theory, and in turn catalysed a state of accelerating and near-continuous transformations in worldview. The results? a completely and continuously mutable reality -- people can bioengineer themselves and “nature”; the human - machine interface is completely porous, with biochips and DNA processors extending “pervasive computing” into the human body; smart machines co-design and re-design themselves and, in concert with their post- human partners, co-design and re-design the worlds around them. Assembly and re- assembly at the atomic level are almost literally child’s play. The late 21st century is also post-consumerist, post-literate, and post-Earth: by the end of the 21st century the boundaries between producers and consumers had been all but erased with pervasive home fabrication capability; literacy had evolved into mediacy, and the new global pidgin owed as much to drawn from Ray Kurzweil, The Mandarin and movies, and Hindi and high-impact role-playing games, as to Singularity is Near, 2005; Jim Dator, English and the Latin languages. “Ubiquitous, Dream, Transformational, the best and brightest have evolved as ‘homo stellae’, leaving the cradle of Earth, and Other Futures,” 2006. or ‘homo oceanus’, adapted to life on and under the seas. [continued next slide] “...technology will be the metaphorical opposable thumb that enables our next step in evolution.” (Kurzweil) 16
  • Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will Transform be ended. Vernor Vinge, On the Singularity presented at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, 30-31 March 1993 (http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html). By 2100, humans, and their technologies, and the environments of both, have all three merged into the same thing. Humans, as humans, lost their monopoly on intelligence, while new forms of artificial life and artificial intelligence emerged, eventually perhaps to supercede humanity, while the once "natural" environments of Earth became exercises in managed evolution that were (and are still) continuously envisioned, designed, created and transformed first by humans and then in conjunction with our post-human successors (paraphrased from Dator). From homo sapiens sapiens to homo sapiens silica and homo sapiens stellae and oceanus, and bio-silica sapiens. Lives are long, experience a currency, education continuous, production and governance open-source and blurred between the local and global, and children few. The population has declined and scattered, and old installations attract the idle curiosity of nanotech-enabled amateur archaeologists of all ages. The ‘ancient world’ artifacts of pre-singularity humanity are seen as interesting curios of species childhood. drawn from Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, 2005; Jim Dator, “Ubiquitous, Dream, Transformational, and Other Futures,” 2006. “...technology will be the metaphorical opposable thumb that enables our next step in evolution.” (Kurzweil) 17
  • We change ourselves.
  • New territories, layered identities.
  • Wiring Up Our Brains • The Emotiv headset (pictured right) is the first commercially available user interface allowing people to control computers with their brainwaves. • Implantable chips connecting microprocessors to the human nervous system have been prototyped and tested, both by Prof. Kevin Warwick at Reading, and also via the Braingate chip, used as a therapeutic implant for a paralyzed patient. Intel forecasts that chips in brains will control computers by 2020. • This will be accelerated by the recent announcement of the BCI (brain computer interface) X-Prize, organized by the Singularity University and the X-Prize Foundation. 20
  • graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Our belongings evolve: AI.
  • graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. Transforming transit and transport?
  • A “SensorNet of Things” • Connections will multiply and create an entirely new dynamic network of networks – an Internet of Things. • There will be an increasing convergence of technologies whereby a number of disparate goods and services may be coupled with IT in the same way in which mobile phones, for example are currently capable of taking video footage and photographs and permitting access to the Web. • New ICTs enable 'ubiquitous computing' or 'ambient intelligence' to play an increasing role in our lives through the use of embedded devices which can continuously collect and process information. The devices sense movement and monitor how individuals interact with objects such as vehicles and domestic appliances, making it possible to 'customise' the use of technology in the home, the workplace, and elsewhere. • By 2036 'it is likely that the majority of the global population will find it difficult to ‘turn the outside world off ’. ICT is likely to be so pervasive that people are permanently connected to a network or two-way data stream with inherent challenges to civil liberties; being disconnected could be considered suspicious. • Our “things” will be increasingly embedded with sensors allowing them to monitor their own operations, need for supplies, the ambient environment, and to connect with other appliances and devices -- and us -- through the Internet. 23
  • 3D ‘fabbers’: printing anything. • Fab@Home distributes “open-hardware” plans and DIY instructions for building simple, low-cost home “fabbers.” Fabbers are 3D printers or prototypers. They replicate objects from plans supplied by a computer, and can use a variety of materials, from metal to plastic to sugar or chocolate. It is possible not only to print 3D objects, but to print objects with moving parts. Commercial fabbers are also available, and prices are dropping rapidly. • Researchers at the University of California have designed “Such devices could change optical decoding software that is good enough to create a how we acquire common working copy of a key by analysing a photograph of the key. products. Instead of buying an Once the key type and code is identified, the software can iPod, you would download the drive a key-cutting tool, creating duplicates of the original. 5 plans over the Internet and the • The world is increasingly being recorded to high-quality fabber would make one for digital databases; cell phone cameras are increasingly high you.” definition. - Prof. Hod Lipson, Cornell 24
  • Fade Fade: aging cities.
  • Fade Fade Away: aging cities Detroit: about 90,000 abandoned and vacant buildings; about 30% of the city's housing is vacant. Flint: the original home of General Motors, which once employed 79,000 local people but now only around 8,000; unemployment is approaching 20%; the drawn from Patrick McIlheran, “The ruins of Detroit,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, June 15, 2010: http://www.jsonline.com/ total population has almost halved. blogs/news/93934929.html; BBC2, “Requiem for Detroit,” http:// www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00rkm3y; and Tom Leonard, “US cities may have to be bull-dozed to survive,” Telegraph.co.uk, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ financetopics/financialcrisis/5516536/US- 26 cities-may-have-to-be-bulldozed-in-order- to-survive.html.
  • Fade Pruning cities. 50 cities have been identified in a recent study by the Brookings Institution, an influential Washington think-tank, as potentially needing to shrink substantially to cope with their declining fortunes. Strategy: buy back vacant/abandoned drawn from Patrick McIlheran, “The ruins of Detroit,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, sites, demolish, convert to meadow, park, June 15, 2010: http://www.jsonline.com/ blogs/news/93934929.html; BBC2, urban farms, art installations. “Requiem for Detroit,” http:// www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00rkm3y; and Tom Leonard, “US cities may have to be bull-dozed to survive,” Telegraph.co.uk, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ financetopics/financialcrisis/5516536/US- 27 cities-may-have-to-be-bulldozed-in-order- to-survive.html.
  • Fade excerpted from RE-BURBIA design contest organized by Inhabitat and Dwell, http:// www.re-burbia.com/. Recycling suburbs: re-thinking middle class sprawl.
  • Fade excerpted from RE-BURBIA design contest organized by Inhabitat and Dwell, http:// www.re-burbia.com/. Recycling suburbs: re-thinking middle class sprawl.
  • Fade excerpted from RE-BURBIA design contest organized by Inhabitat and Dwell, http:// www.re-burbia.com/. Recycling suburbs: re-thinking middle class sprawl.
  • Fade excerpted from RE-BURBIA design contest organized by Inhabitat and Dwell, http:// www.re-burbia.com/. Recycling suburbs: re-thinking middle class sprawl.
  • Fade excerpted from RE-BURBIA design contest organized by Inhabitat and Dwell, http:// www.re-burbia.com/. Recycling suburbs: re-thinking middle class sprawl.
  • Fade drawn from BLDGBLOG, “Crypto-forestry and the return of the repressed,” http:// bldgblog.blogspot.com/2010/06/crypto- forestry-and-return-of-repressed.html; photo: from personal library: plants reclaim building in the Indian quarter of Singapore. Urban crypto-forests: Nature moves back.
  • Sustain Sustain: parsimonious cities.
  • Sustain graphics from WIRED’s “Found: Artifacts of the Future” feature. We change where we live.
  • Transforming Food Dominance Sustain of paradigm / worldview commercial intensified agriculture vs. organic artisanal agriculture Fading 3rd horizon paradigms & technologies Transition hydroponics and “Cornucopia” paradigms & aeroponics food printer technologies 2nd horizon Pockets of future found cloned-tissue meat production 1st horizon In present vs. tourist ‘art’ cattle Time “present” “future”
  • Transforming Food • “Cornucopia” food • Aeroponics: NASA printer - MIT student developed, now small- design: extrudes scale products and favourite ingredients large-scale research / and then heats or design centers cools as appropriate. • Constraints: costs of infrastructure • Paradigm shift: from earth to Spaceship Earth • In-vitro meat: PETA has offered a $1 mn “X- Prize” for science team that develops commercially viable process • Constraints: social attitudes re: natural foods - snobbery / luxury backlash • Paradigm shift: from natural to biodesigned
  • Blurring the Urban and Rural Dominance Sustain of paradigm / worldview urban-rural agricultural divide Fading 3rd horizon paradigms & technologies Transition urban agriculture & paradigms & vertical agriculture; technologies vertical ecologies; 2nd horizon and ‘pooktre’ Pockets of future found natural systems agriculture: melding ecology and agronomy 1st horizon In present Time “present” “future”
  • Blurring the Urban and Rural • Vertical Farm research centre attracting both professionals and students of design •Constraints: costs of new installations - finding investors; regulations; retrofitting costs • Land Institute: creating prairie- like perennial agriculture • Constraints: in development • Paradigm shift: biomimicry
  • A “PowerNet of Things” Power generation capability built into everything: small gadgets: solar rechargers houses / residences: solar, wind, and piezo-electric clothing and floors: piezo-electric (pressure) rechargers infrastructure: desalination plants are also power plants roadways: piezo-electric and solar generation Power stored, recycled, sold on: Extra energy can be ‘stored’ as hydrogen via chemical process similar to photosynthesis Closes loop to create viable hydrogen / fuel cell economy Sustain 36
  • Biomimicry: designing from nature Scientists, engineers and designers increasingly innovate by studying nature’s efficiencies, following Zimbabwe office complex air these rules of thumb: conditioning modeled on air flow – Nature runs on sunlight; within termite mound. – Nature uses only the energy it needs; – Nature fits form to function; – Nature recycles everything; Self-cleaning fabrics and glass modeled on surface structure – Nature rewards cooperation; of a lotus leaf. – Nature banks on diversity; – Nature demands local expertise; – Nature curbs excess from within; – Nature taps the power of limits. What would your city look like if planned by these rules? Sustain
  • Economic models change.
  • ‘For now, the amounts [of Growth of local currency] in circulation are minuscule. Most are a gesture of defiance against globalisation by encouraging New Currencies local commerce rather than a rigorous economic experiment. But there may be more converts if monetary policy eventually runs out of road.’ • The New Economics Foundation recently argued that in – The Economist the long term we ‘need to re-link our money system and currencies to local and regional economies, so that if the national (or even international) currency collapses, others will continue to enable people to conduct economic exchange’. Bernard Lietaer cites the example of the Swiss WIR B2B model, which has been proven to act as a ‘significant counter-cyclical stabilizing factor’. • In the UK, 30,000 ‘Lewes Pounds’ have been issued since the local currency was launched in Lewes, East Sussex, in September 2008; in Detroit ‘Detroit Cheers’ have been used in an attempt to reinvigorate downtown areas. • Digital currencies also generate economic growth: Second Life’s Linden dollars have fueled an economy robust enough to create real-world millionaires 39
  • Crowdsourced: Credit, Investment, Philanthropy Dominance of paradigm / worldview captains of industry, dragons’ dens, angel investors Fading 3rd horizon Everyone’s paradigms & a vendor: technologies Square Grameen Bank microcredit; Transition Zopa person-to- paradigms & person lending; technologies ‘crowd-funding’, 2nd horizon eg, “Diaspora” Pockets of future found • Constraints: momentum/inertia of current investment systems and traditional approaches 1st horizon In present • Paradigm shift: from top-down to networked/dispersed “present” “future” Time
  • ‘Lease, don’t own’: Community Ownership • The general shift from commerce dominated by products to a service-based economy is starting to affect the possession and use of goods. It is increasingly common for tangible or intangible goods to be accessed for a short period of time on a licensed basis, as if they were an externally-held service. • Examples: Zipcar, USA and London; Windcar, Japan. About two thirds of Zipcar's members are under 35 and based on survey data, the company says that more than 40 percent of Zipcar users either sell their car or decide not to buy one. • Such leasing arrangements could expand until nearly all fixed assets could in principle be leased to business and consumers rather than be owned by them. • Leasing and short-term access models have grown for entertainment (e.g. iTunes, Spotify, Lovefilm). ‘Lease, don’t own’ models may expand to other areas of life, and more companies may become involved in financing leases. Participation in car sharing Sources: Foresight/GOS (2009) Sigma Scan (270); DFT (2008) Public experiences of car sharing by age, UK
  • Will your city be competitive?
  • Emerging patterns of leverage: Printing From economies Everything of scale... Printing electronics to economies of Printing 3D objects grid Printing food Printing organic tissue Each home a micro-state / Nets of Everything economy. Internet of things Sensornet of things Parsimony: Powernet of things sustainability as Blur elegant design 43
  • Just one more thing...
  • Just one more thing... Surprises.
  • The future will be framed by how we answer five fundamental questions: DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world? RELATE: How will we live together on planet Earth? CONNECT: What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things? CREATE: As human beings what will we be inspired to create? CONSUME: How will we use the earth’s resources? Michele Bowman and Kaipo Lum How do we create competitive cities for the future?
  • Challenging + Complex + Creative + Courageous = Observe. Competitive Explore ahead. Challenge assumptions.
  • Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures: foresight research and training Oxford, England http:// www.infinitefutures.com Thank you.