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Forrester EA Council Roundtable 29/4/10 Futures Toolkit (Short)
 

Forrester EA Council Roundtable 29/4/10 Futures Toolkit (Short)

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A brief introduction to creativity and futures thinking tools to jumpstart innovation.

A brief introduction to creativity and futures thinking tools to jumpstart innovation.

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  • <br /> What is the relationship, if any, between foresight and innovation, the development of novel services or technologies? The fulcrum of that relationship is creativity, so let&#x2019;s consider what creativity is, what constrains it, and how futures thinking and foresight can help amplify creativity and overcome constraints that may hobble it. <br />
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  • <br /> Arthur Koestler&#x2019;s landmark work on creativity in science, The Act of Creation, identifies &#x201C;bisociation&#x201D; as an engine of creativity: the combining or colliding of two ideas usually thought to be completely unrelated: the forced association of two dissimilar concepts. In the more recent business best-seller, The Medici Effect, Frans Johansson emphasises the same dynamic: the intersection of the dissimilar. Kim and Mauborgne make the case in Blue Ocean Strategy that the most effective competitive strategy is creating value outside the accepted boundaries of your market: combining services and products to create value innovation, winning competitive edge by creating entirely new markets. <br />
  • <br /> Forcing an association between the function of a citrus juicer and the shape of a spider might have inspired Philippe Starck&#x2019;s creation of his iconic kitchen tool. <br />
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  • <br /> What assumptions do the current products make about people&#x2019;s lifestyles, needs, or the environment, resources available, or cultural perspectives, or the economy, or political regulation of the given market or product? Examples: Kohler -- continued availability of freshwater in most of the US; DaimlerChrysler -- car owners want their cars to be the same color from day-to-day. Identify as many assumptions as you can in about 15 minutes. Then imagine forced change: reverse those assumptions. Examples: Kohler -- water shortages on the coasts force people to use brackish and salt water for washing, rinsing, flushing; DaimlerChrysler -- consumers want to change their car styles as easily as they change Swatches. An exercise which helps: listing &#x201C;what could never happen&#x201D;: Write &#x201C;IT COULD NEVER HAPPEN THAT&#x2026;&#x201D; on the top of your easel, and list ways to complete that sentence relevant to your company, as bullet points underneath. Example: Herman Miller -- (&#x201C;It could never happen that&#x2026;&#x201D;) people no longer need to work in offices. Create contrary assumptions for 15 minutes. <br /> <br /> Now go to the trend wall and review the trends. Any major trends of change missing? Any emerging issues of change you&#x2019;ve heard about and could add? Review these trends, and identify those that might lead to changes which would create conditions described by your reversed assumptions. Example: the trends &#x201C;mass customization&#x201D; and &#x201C;user production&#x201D; could lead to consumer demand for easily changed car styles. <br />
  • <br /> What assumptions do the current products make about people&#x2019;s lifestyles, needs, or the environment, resources available, or cultural perspectives, or the economy, or political regulation of the given market or product? Examples: Kohler -- continued availability of freshwater in most of the US; DaimlerChrysler -- car owners want their cars to be the same color from day-to-day. Identify as many assumptions as you can in about 15 minutes. Then imagine forced change: reverse those assumptions. Examples: Kohler -- water shortages on the coasts force people to use brackish and salt water for washing, rinsing, flushing; DaimlerChrysler -- consumers want to change their car styles as easily as they change Swatches. An exercise which helps: listing &#x201C;what could never happen&#x201D;: Write &#x201C;IT COULD NEVER HAPPEN THAT&#x2026;&#x201D; on the top of your easel, and list ways to complete that sentence relevant to your company, as bullet points underneath. Example: Herman Miller -- (&#x201C;It could never happen that&#x2026;&#x201D;) people no longer need to work in offices. Create contrary assumptions for 15 minutes. <br /> <br /> Now go to the trend wall and review the trends. Any major trends of change missing? Any emerging issues of change you&#x2019;ve heard about and could add? Review these trends, and identify those that might lead to changes which would create conditions described by your reversed assumptions. Example: the trends &#x201C;mass customization&#x201D; and &#x201C;user production&#x201D; could lead to consumer demand for easily changed car styles. <br />
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  • <br /> As an example, let&#x2019;s say we chose to create a futures wheel from the provocative statement, &#x201D;By 2010, we talk to our computers, they talk back, and recognize us via biometrics.&#x201D; This statement is a vivid way of expressing several related trends: 1) increasing multiplicity of input and display devices for computers, with consequent decline in use of keyboards; and 2) increasing use of &#x201C;biometrics&#x201D; &#x2013; identifiers based on unique characteristics of living organisms, like our fingerprints, retinal patterns, blood type, or DNA. <br /> What are the first effects you can extrapolate would emerge from this shift in the computing infrastructure &#x2013; and everything connected to, or depending upon, it? <br />
  • For example: <br /> working &#x2013; and education &#x2013; environments noisier; <br /> nobody needs to remember passwords anymore; <br /> precipitous drop in incidence of work-related carpal tunnel syndrome; <br /> market emerges for &#x201D;great voice&#x201D; modules to personalize computer speech. <br /> These are just a few examples of primary effects. If your thinking gets stuck, look at the subdivisions in the futures wheel. These effects address the areas of work, education, daily life, health, and the economy &#x2013; what about hobbies? our homes and family life? the arts? etc. <br /> Next, take each of these primary effects, one by one, and ask what effects they in turn will have on our lives: <br /> working &#x2013; and education &#x2013; environments noisier: <br /> wireless &#x201D;earbud&#x201D; headphones/microphones to communicate with your computer; <br /> development of &#x201D;workpod&#x201D; office and schoolroom furniture, with built-in sound barriers: <br /> people in the same room conversing through their computers&#x2019; wireless network; <br /> &#x201D;visual display&#x201D; goggles for silent response, eye movement navigation through menus: <br /> accelerated development of augmented reality. <br /> While listing the secondary effects of the chosen primary effect, tertiary effects also emerged, as the indented, italicized items illustrate. <br />
  • <br /> The previous page includes the possible secondary and tertiary impacts for &#x201D;working &#x2013; and education &#x2013; environments noisier.&#x201D; Let&#x2019;s choose two more primary effects and explore some possible secondary effects: <br /> precipitous drop in incidence of work-related carpal tunnel syndrome: <br /> increase in worker productivity; <br /> decline in workers&#x2019; compensation costs; <br /> collapse of keyboard wrist rest market. <br /> market emerges for &#x201D;great voice&#x201D; modules to personalize computer speech: <br /> hot new licensing endeavor for popular actors and singers &#x2013; sideline for radio personalities and politicians with great voices as well; <br /> teenages pirate great voices from DVDs of favourite movies and tv shows, and &#x201D;napsterize&#x201D; them: <br /> underground &#x201D;baseball card&#x201D; trading culture develops of popular voice modules; <br /> storm of court cases and Congressional hearings on issue: <br /> new laws making individuals the sole owners of their own biometrics; <br /> emerging trend of visitors preferring to converse with their friends&#x2019; answering machines and homes rather than the people themselves &#x2013; the house computer has a pleasant voice, is unfailingly polite, and listens really well. <br />
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  • <br /> First, brainstorm all the characteristics of a kangaroo: <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Next, suggest all the ways in which you might re-design a car so that it has those characteristics: <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Finally, go to the Trend Wall (or your horizon scanning database) and find all the trends or emerging issues: <br /> 1) that suggest emerging technological, materials science, IT, or other capabilities that might enable the creation of your innovative car: <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 2) that suggest an emerging customer base -- or reinforce your sense of emerging needs in your current customer base -- for these innovations: <br />
  • First, brainstorm all the characteristics of a cat: <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Next, suggest all the ways in which you might re-design a bathtub so that it has those characteristics: <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Finally, go to the Trend Wall (or your horizon scanning database) and find all the trends or emerging issues: <br /> 1) that suggest emerging technological, materials science, IT, or other capabilities that might enable the creation of your innovative car: <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 2) that suggest an emerging customer base -- or reinforce your sense of emerging needs in your current customer base -- for these innovations: <br />
  • <br /> First, brainstorm all the characteristics of an octopus: <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Next, suggest all the ways in which you might re-design a Squall jacket so that it has those characteristics: <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Finally, go to the Trend Wall (or your horizon scanning database) and find all the trends or emerging issues: <br /> 1) that suggest emerging technological, materials science, IT, or other capabilities that might enable the creation of your innovative car: <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 2) that suggest an emerging customer base -- or reinforce your sense of emerging needs in your current customer base -- for these innovations: <br />
  • <br /> See the following slides for &#x201C;bullet point&#x201D; descriptions of the scenarios, and the accompanying word document for the narrative form of the incasting workshop scenarios. This workshop technique was developed by Prof. James A. Dator of the Hawai&#x2019;i Research Center for Futures Studies, and has been in use for over three decades. It is based on content analyses of futures research and foresight literature, identifying five archetypal images of the future. <br />
  • <br /> Which of your products / services will be obsolete? <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> What new potential customer base has emerged? <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> What new products or services would allow you to thrive? <br />
  • <br /> <br /> Which of your products / services will be obsolete? <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> What new potential customer base has emerged? <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> What new products or services would allow you to thrive? <br />
  • <br /> <br /> Which of your products / services will be obsolete? <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> What new potential customer base has emerged? <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> What new products or services would allow you to thrive? <br />
  • <br /> <br /> Which of your products / services will be obsolete? <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> What new potential customer base has emerged? <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> What new products or services would allow you to thrive? <br />
  • <br /> <br /> Which of your products / services will be obsolete? <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> What new potential customer base has emerged? <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> What new products or services would allow you to thrive? <br />
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  • <br /> <br /> Baroness Prof. Susan Greenfield: futures of neuroscience, cognition, and the human brain. The brain does not distinguish between imagined experience and lived experience: it grows, gains in complexity, adds neurons and interconnections and complexity from the stimulus of thought to the same extent as from the stimulus of life. Thus extrapolating, exploring, envisioning possible and preferred futures does in fact prepare your brain to work more effectively in processing the lived experience of whatever futures may arise. <br />
  • <br /> These questions are extracted from Michele Bowman and Kaipo Lum&#x2019;s VERGE: Ethnographic Futures Framework. Their article documenting VERGE/EFF and its use is forthcoming. If you are interested in more information on EFF and its use in workshops, futures wheels, scenario thinking, and visioning, please contact me at wendy@infinitefutures.com for examples and process suggestions. <br />
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Forrester EA Council Roundtable 29/4/10 Futures Toolkit (Short) Forrester EA Council Roundtable 29/4/10 Futures Toolkit (Short) Presentation Transcript

  • Futures Tools prepared for for creativity Forrester Leadership Boards and Enterprise Architecture Council innovation: thinking Innovating by Raising Awareness differently ( a small 29 April 2010 sample ). Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
  • Can foresight inspire creativity? • What is creativity? • What is innovation? • How can foresight inspire creativity? • What emerging changes are driving design? • What will the next generation’s consumers want?
  • Types of Creativity • Thinking up new ideas • Making something tangible • Producing an event • Organising people or projects • Doing something spontaneous • Building relationships • Changing your “inner self”
  • Creativity: Key Concepts  Koestler, ‘bisociation’;  Johansson, ‘intersection’;  Kim & Mauborgne, ‘value innovation’ leading to ‘blue ocean strategy’.
  • Example: ”bisociation” … = juicer + spider Philippe Starck?
  • Constraints on Creativity • Limiting beliefs • Fear (of the known and unknown) • Other emotions (eg, anger, guilt, boredom) • Stress • Overspecialization • Narrow thinking • Lack of imagination
  • Futures / Creativity Tools • Reverse Assumptions: because current operating conditions won’t last. • Idea Boxes: scramble characteristics to innovate • Futures Wheels: explore impact cascades because change changes more than one thing • De Bono’s “po”: beyond software mashups to conceptual mashups • Scenario Incasting: explore the business environments and consumers of alternative possible futures and innovate to create strategic responses
  • Value Innovation • Which idea(s) offer greatest potential to drive costs down? • Which idea(s) offer buyer value the industry has never before presented consumers?
  • Blue Ocean Idea Index • Will there be exceptional utility? Compelling reasons to buy? • Will the price be easily accessible to the mass of buyers? • Will your cost structure be advantageous? • Will it address adoption hurdles?
  • Futures / Creativity Tools • Reverse Assumptions: because current operating conditions won’t last. • Idea Boxes: scramble characteristics to innovate • Futures Wheels: explore impact cascades because change changes more than one thing • De Bono’s “po”: beyond software mashups to conceptual mashups • Scenario Incasting: explore the business environments and consumers of alternative possible futures and innovate to create strategic responses
  • Reverse Assumptions: 45 min. • Review your company and its products. • What do its current products assume? • State those assumptions as their polar opposites; • What ‘could never happen?’ • Go to trends wall -- which trends support your assumption reversals? Current assumptions: raw What beliefs, values, conditions, Current customers, markets, materials, customers’ needs, etc. etc. created these assumptions? products, services What “3rd Horizon” innovations, value shifts or other changes New customers, markets, Reverse those assumptions: ?????? support the reversed products, services assumptions?
  • Reverse Assumptions: eg. What created / might create Customers, Markets, Time Assumptions these assumptions? Beliefs, Products, Services Values, Conditions, Trends KOHLER: baths and •People want to be clean; kitchens…. •Washing requires soap and PURE •Religious beliefs; Past & WATER; •Hygienic science; •PURE WATER is abundant; •Social mores / customs; Current •Water is supplied through pipes from •Historically abundant supply. city mains. REVERSED: •New materials (eg nanotech, •People don’t want to be clean; bioengineered cloth) ‘self-clean’; Possible What new products or •Neither soap nor pure water is needed •Water IS scarce; services might Kohler want to to wash; •Condensor technologies; Future offer? •PURE WATER is scarce! assembled from H and O; •Water ‘from thin air’? desalination.
  • Idea Boxes: 45 min. • Think about your product. • List its attributes: shape, material, texture, energy source, duration, location, etc. • List at least five alternative possible choices for each attribute, drawn from “2nd Horizon” or “3rd Horizon” changes. • Create a new product by choosing a different combination of choices, e.g.,…
  • Idea Boxes: 45 min. e.g., Ball-point Pens INK SHAPE MATERIAL CAP RESERVOIR Faceted Metal Attached cap No cartridge Square Glass No cap Permanent Beaded Wood Retracts Paper cartridge Cartridge made of Sculptured Paper Cleaning cap ink
  • Futures Wheels
  • Futures Wheels: Origins • Jerome Glenn • Invented futures wheels in 1971 as a method for policy analysis and forecasting • Also called Implementation Wheel, Impact Wheel, Mind Mapping, and Webbing • His definitive article available in the methods CD from the AC/UNU Millennium Project, along with the annual State of the Future report [go here for the methods compendium: http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html]. • Joel Barker • “Cascade thinking:” go out at least three orders of implications to find big surprises • http://www.strategicexploration.com/i-wheel/index.htm
  • Futures Wheels: 45 45 min. Futures Wheels: min.  Enter your chosen change in the inner circle of your worksheet.  Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine possible impacts of this change over the next twenty years: go to extremes -- have fun.  Map immediate impacts as primary on the appropriate ‘spoke’; as primary impacts emerge, add impact spokes to those as well. Take 10 minutes.  Each group take 10 minutes to identify 5 new markets, or clients and customers implied by the new conditions.  Each group take 10 minutes to identify 5 new products.
  • office sound silent, eye-tracking menu “earbud” headphones to barriers navigation goggles talk to/hear computer developed work noisier work? travel? economy? primary effects home/ voice input / output, biometric passwords education? families? impact communications? hobbies? environment? impact secondary impact effects Futures Wheel
  • voice input / output, work noisier biometric passwords market for “great New licensing opp’ty for no passwords required voices” popular singers and drop in carpal tunnel actors syndrome Increase in pirate market: great worker voices productivity collapse of “napsterized” keyboard wrist decline in worker rest market Rather talk to your compensation costs machine than you… Futures Wheel
  • work? travel? economy? primary effects home/ change education? families? communications? hobbies? environment? secondary effects Futures Wheel
  • ”po” … from Edward de Bono • ”po” asks you to surprise yourself! • think outside of categories • question assumptions • forced association of unlikely pairs (“bisociation” or “intersection”): • randomly chosen word & object of interest; • list defining characteristics of random (noun); • describe what your product would be like if it had / could have those attributes. • what emerging trends or changes would help you create those innovations?
  • Kangaroo po... ...auto
  • Cat po... ...bathtub
  • Octopus po... ...anorak jacket
  • Scenario ‘Incasting’… exploring alternative futures (‘instant’ scenario thinking) • You wake up to find yourself in a future 25 years hence… • Do NOT question how this future came to be; instead, ask how your company will adapt and thrive in these conditions: • Which of your products / services will be obsolete? • What new potential customer base has emerged? • What new products or services would allow you to thrive?
  • High Tech Decentralization... • Human inventiveness triumphs! Clean, abundant energy and advances in robotics, nanotechnology, and material science give people very precise, low-waste control of our resources and environments. • Genetic engineering gives us precise control over our bodies -- and our definitions of who and what we are. • High-definition, multi-sense holography and virtual reality let us create virtual worlds of our inner visions -- leading to new art forms AND a new form of autism. • Data and telecoms networks freed information globally, and local and regional direct democracies are the most common form of governance. • Respect for the environment is just part of rational resource management.
  • Environmental Sustainability... • Undeniable environmental changes in the early ‘10’s shifted values away from materialism, towards personal responsibility for the environment and the welfare of future generations; some communities punish the misuse of resources. • “Eco-preneurs” developed ecologically friendly technologies and extremely sophisticated resource use and recycling systems -- with crossover innovations among genetic engineering, the biosciences, and materials science, plastic now grows on trees [shrubs, actually]. • Lifestyles downsize: from nations to bioregions; from cities to towns; from 3 SUV’s per family to one shared among three families. • Environmental restoration and bio-recreation of extinct species. • Less materialism; more emphasis on learning and the arts.
  • Discipline and Duty... • Conservative neo-fundamentalists have garnered power, emphasizing family and community over individualism; non- nationals and “socially unacceptable” groups are expelled or repressed. • People focus on traditional mores and modes of life, with social roles as well as behaviors and beliefs more constrained; the explosive growth of the Internet and the Web slowed dramatically as society’s censors scrutinized content for suitability -- art and other expressive media are cramped as well. • While few environmental-management restrictions are placed on business, the economy slows because of the restrictions on creativity.
  • The Future, Inc. • The extreme outgrowth of global mass media / consumption trends: new consumer products move from inventor to production to distribution to global market saturation in a year! • The government gave up and privatized many services to cut national spending and reduce the deficit. • The Fortune 500 offer so many amenities in their benefit packages that corporate citizenship is more important than country of origin -- the world’s important boundaries and cultures are now those of the major corporations more than of countries. • The rich and the poor now have better access to goods, but the true elite are those who command corporations’ executive privileges. • Environmental preservation occurs only where it profits.
  • World Crash • The global recession proliferated in consumer, corporate, national, and international debt, resulting in the global economic disintegration of ‘13. • Terrorism, regional wars and border skirmishes, and environmental crises exacerbated the disintegration of the interconnected, globalized economy. • Production and, more importantly, distribution of needed raw materials, goods and services collapsed in many areas. • Fear of looting and piracy generated armed isolationism in many countries, and in many communities within countries. • By 2023, political units fragment, creating new city-states, urban tribal systems, and roving bands of refugees on land and sea.
  • Let Foresight inspire change: • Establish corporate foresight dialogue: • Open scanning database • Invite participation from scientists, inventors, artists, educators, public • Explore alternative outcomes (scenarios) • Let the turbulent overlap of multiple perspectives spark creativity and innovation…
  • Complex Adaptive Systems: complexity responds to chaos • Social networking, open source, prosumption, and flashmobs all owe their genesis to the complexity paradigm, which assumes that complex adaptive systems... – tend to be self-stabilising; – are or appear to be purposeful; – can use feedback to modify their behaviour; – can modify their own environments; and – can replicate, maintain, repair, and reorganise themselves. • Chaos is turbulence: - where emerging changes intersect and overlap, they generate a turbulent space; - complex systems adapt to turbulence via creativity and innovation.
  • 4 Thinking Modes: Logical Creative Systemic Intuitive Foresight pumps innovation.
  • The future will be framed by how we answer five fundamental questions: DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world? RELATE: How will we live together on planet Earth? CONNECT: What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things? CREATE: As human beings what will we be inspired to create? CONSUME: How will we use the earth’s resources? Innovation creates futures.
  • Thank you! Please feel free to contact me with any questions. Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures: Foresight research and training Oxford, England http://www.infinitefutures.com wendy@infinitefutures.com