problematizeCrazy problematizes „normal‟…and so do futures.[photo artifact from WIRED]
What is plausible?You keep using that word. I do not think itmeans what you think it means.Inigo Montoya to Vizzini, in The PrincessBride
possibleprobablepreferredRoy Amara, Institute for the Future
possible plausibleprobablepreferredRoy Amara, Institute for the Future
Forecast: widespread plausibilityFOR-LEARN: “To be effective, scenarios must be plausible,consistent and offer insights into the future. Plausibility: A scenariomust be plausible. This means that it must fall within the limits of whatmight conceivably happen.”From Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight,“…plausible futures: reasonable outcomes, with a discernablepathway from the present to the future. For example, discoveringextraterrestrial life within the next decade is possible, but notplausible.”From Godet, Creating Futures: “…scenarios are only credible anduseful if they meet the following five conditions that we believe instillrigor: relevance, coherence, plausibility, importance andtransparency.”From Lindgren and Bandhold, Scenario Planning: “Scenarios arevivid descriptions of plausible futures.”From Ralston and Wilson, The Scenario Planning Handbook:“…scenarios must meet the following criteria: they must be plausible– that is, they must fall within the limits of what might reasonably beexpected to happen.”
Oxford English Dictionary: Acceptable,agreeable, pleasing, gratifying; winningpublic approval, popular.Obs.; Of an argument, an idea, astatement, etc.: seeming reasonable,probable, or truthful; convincing,believable; (formerly) spec. having afalse appearance of reason or veracity;specious. Of a person: convincing orpersuasive, esp. with the intention todeceive.
What are futures?Scenarios are futures for the head;visions are futures for the heart.Clem Bezold, Institute for AlternativeFutures
Images of the future:a continuum of infinitepossibilities Set of allimagesof the future: impossible, possible, probable, preferable scenarios: scenarios: upside visions nightmares scenarios: PTE downside (presenttrendsextended) utopias dystopias Categoriesarevalue-based and subjectiveagainst the preferable AND the ’plausible’: ’craziness’ is contingent.
Futures craziness scale?sanity / completelynormality / bat@%$@plausibility crazy random futures my futuresyour futures random futures random futures their futures
Forecast: fringe thinkingEmpirical/ ahead? Futures Research,Evidence-based especially scanningResearchCredible; Emerging issues often lack apparentcredibility;Documented; Difficult to document, as only one or two cases may yet exist;Authoritative; Emerging from marginalized fringe;Statistically significant; By definition only one or two cases exist = insignificant;Coherent: the dataagree; At emergence, the data will vary widely;Consensus-based: the No consensus – rejection due to paradigm challenges;experts agree;Theoretically grounded; Emerging changes often challenge previous theoretical structures and necessitate the construction of new theories;Mono-disciplinary.
Believed images.People‟s beliefs about the future, and their images of thefuture,affect their decisions and actions, which in turn create thefutures as an emergent property of aggregated interconnectedactions.
Plausibility ismaladaptive in aVUCA world.Wild, wicked, and vuca:volatility, uncertainty, complexity,ambiguity.
Communicating crazy futuresNavigating the uncanny valleys of provocation, transgression,craziness.
Let’s get crazy!An exercise in generating crazy – but useful –futures.
Crazy Futures DynamoAssumptions? Opposites? Data/emerging?You go to eat ?Building / site Mobile, nomadic: hot Pop-up shops; tree- air balloon, treehouse house restaurant (Aus)Staff: chef makes food Food printer, Cornell; … collaborative co-Staff: servers bring cooking Japanfood Robots, dispenser Forage (LA)Wholesale suppliers Customers bring own raw ingredientsBusiness / for-profit Community resourceCustomers pay Barter, in-kindYou go to socialize ?
Alice laughed. "Theres no use trying," shesaid. "One cant believe impossible things.”"I dare say you havent had much practice,"said the queen. "When I was your age, Ialways did it for half an hour a day. Why,sometimes Ive believed as many as siximpossible things before breakfast."Lewis Carroll / Charles Dodgson, Alice in Wonderland
I want to believe.Fox Mulder‟s wall poster, The X-Files
You have to go on andbe crazy. Craziness islike heaven.Jimi Hendrix