1
#NoEstimates
Robert Weißgraeber
TYPO3 Conference 2013
Stuttgart, 30st Oct

2
communication. content. consulting.

/me
Robert Weißgraeber
Principal @ aexea

3
#foodkoma

/me

@robert_we

4
coffee image: epsos.de
#NoEstimates as a hashtag

5
6
why do we estimate?

(1)

7
typical questions to be
answered
"when will it be finished?"
"when do you have feature X ready?"
"what does it cost?"

8
abstraction
need to know about cost to make decision
need to know some numbers to make a plan

customer value?
how can we ...
(2)
why estimates cause problems.

10
time vs. effort:
your mileage may vary
time, as in effort of a task, can not be compared
between people
individual product...
„Work expands
so as to fill
the time
available for its
completion.“
Parkinsown‘s Law
Cyril Northcote Parkinson, 1955

12
estimates are muda (waste)
a number has no intrinsic value for your software

Lean: „...any human activity that absorbs re...
14
gaming the system

15
16
gaming the system
People turn estimates into targets. Meeting the target
becomes the de facto goal and the de facto method...
story points
& velocity
story points instead of time!

Photos: DieselDemon, Kyle May, CC-by via flickr

18
Lake Wobegon effect
aka Illusory Superiority
aka „above average effect“

people misestimate their own ability

19
survivorship bias
„... is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things
that "survived" some process and inad...
no estimates!

(3)

21
productivity by estimation strategy
1985, Jeffery-Lawrence

22
people are already doing this!
story count gives a more stable prediction than story point
velocity
by Vasco Duarte using ...
focus on value

24
Customer collaboration over
contract negotiation.
Responding to change over
following a plan

25
26
requirements are not stable

27
abstraction
use value as primary decision criteria
be better at executing, delivering – the in comparison to the
real worl...
what to do?

(4)

29
simple!
1.

select the most important
part of work that has to be
done

2.

break it down into small
chunks (risk neutral,...
observe and predict
observe & measure
think about your indicators
do not put guesses in

predict the future

31
stable development process
you need a stable development flow, system, people
you can concentrate on improving this

32
self-regulating prediction
number of stories instead of arbitrary guess

size of stories may change over time
observed out...
kanban anyone?

34
new

ready

doing

delivered

done

35
new

ready

doing

delivered

done

• lead time
• cycle time
• flow

36
scrum
“stories of size 1“

37
chaordic/chaotic:
no estimation, focus on delivering?

38
Price?
but... what is the price for the customer?
39
be Agile!
do not be trapped in a plan

40
focus on value
highest value first

how many features in your projects do not deliver value?

41
Trust.
42
Iterate, don‘t estimate.
43
what not to do!

(5)

44
do not refuse
to answer
estimation
requests.
but…

Photo: jcolman, CC-by via flickr

45
large projects, unbreakable
chunks

46
woman in
pastoral
setting

not large, monolithic projects
increment & iterate & deliver

Photo: Steven Thomas

47
Wrap Up

(6)

Guessing + Estimates are bad
value and cost are not related
focus on value, focus on better delivering, gain...
#BeyondEstimates

thank you.

#NoProjects

thank you. discuss!
49
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#NoEstimates - TYPO3 Conference 2013

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#NoEstimates - TYPO3 Conference 2013

  1. 1. 1
  2. 2. #NoEstimates Robert Weißgraeber TYPO3 Conference 2013 Stuttgart, 30st Oct 2
  3. 3. communication. content. consulting. /me Robert Weißgraeber Principal @ aexea 3
  4. 4. #foodkoma /me @robert_we 4 coffee image: epsos.de
  5. 5. #NoEstimates as a hashtag 5
  6. 6. 6
  7. 7. why do we estimate? (1) 7
  8. 8. typical questions to be answered "when will it be finished?" "when do you have feature X ready?" "what does it cost?" 8
  9. 9. abstraction need to know about cost to make decision need to know some numbers to make a plan customer value? how can we do it? how can we do better? 9
  10. 10. (2) why estimates cause problems. 10
  11. 11. time vs. effort: your mileage may vary time, as in effort of a task, can not be compared between people individual productivity may vary duration depends on lots of factors: resources, task-switching requirements get stale 11
  12. 12. „Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.“ Parkinsown‘s Law Cyril Northcote Parkinson, 1955 12
  13. 13. estimates are muda (waste) a number has no intrinsic value for your software Lean: „...any human activity that absorbs resources but creates no value.“ Principles behind the Agile Manifesto: „Simplicity – the art of maximizing the amount of work not done – is essential.“ 13
  14. 14. 14
  15. 15. gaming the system 15
  16. 16. 16
  17. 17. gaming the system People turn estimates into targets. Meeting the target becomes the de facto goal and the de facto method.  Meeting needs fades in priority. People construe estimates  as promises. No one can predict the future, but many people treat estimates as guarantees. Failed predictions fan blame. Trust and openness suffer. http://www.estherderby.com/2012/03/estimating-is-oftenhelpful-estimates-are-often-not.html 17
  18. 18. story points & velocity story points instead of time! Photos: DieselDemon, Kyle May, CC-by via flickr 18
  19. 19. Lake Wobegon effect aka Illusory Superiority aka „above average effect“ people misestimate their own ability 19
  20. 20. survivorship bias „... is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility.“ look at all your projects even those, which didn‘t happen 20
  21. 21. no estimates! (3) 21
  22. 22. productivity by estimation strategy 1985, Jeffery-Lawrence 22
  23. 23. people are already doing this! story count gives a more stable prediction than story point velocity by Vasco Duarte using Scrum (@duarte_vasco) various different projects http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjectsDB 23
  24. 24. focus on value 24
  25. 25. Customer collaboration over contract negotiation. Responding to change over following a plan 25
  26. 26. 26
  27. 27. requirements are not stable 27
  28. 28. abstraction use value as primary decision criteria be better at executing, delivering – the in comparison to the real world, not some plan arbitrary plan cost-driven decision ignore youre potential 28
  29. 29. what to do? (4) 29
  30. 30. simple! 1. select the most important part of work that has to be done 2. break it down into small chunks (risk neutral, commitable...) 3. deliver it 4. iterate and refactor (by Vasco Duarte) Photo: mtshaw, CC-by via flickr 30
  31. 31. observe and predict observe & measure think about your indicators do not put guesses in predict the future 31
  32. 32. stable development process you need a stable development flow, system, people you can concentrate on improving this 32
  33. 33. self-regulating prediction number of stories instead of arbitrary guess size of stories may change over time observed outcome changes -> changes prediction 33
  34. 34. kanban anyone? 34
  35. 35. new ready doing delivered done 35
  36. 36. new ready doing delivered done • lead time • cycle time • flow 36
  37. 37. scrum “stories of size 1“ 37
  38. 38. chaordic/chaotic: no estimation, focus on delivering? 38
  39. 39. Price? but... what is the price for the customer? 39
  40. 40. be Agile! do not be trapped in a plan 40
  41. 41. focus on value highest value first how many features in your projects do not deliver value? 41
  42. 42. Trust. 42
  43. 43. Iterate, don‘t estimate. 43
  44. 44. what not to do! (5) 44
  45. 45. do not refuse to answer estimation requests. but… Photo: jcolman, CC-by via flickr 45
  46. 46. large projects, unbreakable chunks 46
  47. 47. woman in pastoral setting not large, monolithic projects increment & iterate & deliver Photo: Steven Thomas 47
  48. 48. Wrap Up (6) Guessing + Estimates are bad value and cost are not related focus on value, focus on better delivering, gain trust stop estimating look at your process to get #BeyondEstimates 48
  49. 49. #BeyondEstimates thank you. #NoProjects thank you. discuss! 49

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