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Ben ross energy_futures_may_2012

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  • 1. Energy Futures for You- long term strategic planning16th May 2012
  • 2. fundamentally… 2
  • 3. Shaping your operating context Big Picture Drivers Results trends 3
  • 4. resources technology climate significant trends for WECCnew ways of organisationalworking transparency sustainability 4
  • 5. all of this growth & regionalPopulation is against a backdrop of,and often driven by…variancespopulation growth & urbanisation 5
  • 6. resource scarcity 6
  • 7. Since 2000 commodity prices havemore than doubled Source: McKinsey Global Institute 7
  • 8. With oil prices rising nearly 5 fold,hiding huge fluctuations, and expected to keeprising… IMF “The Future of Oil” May 2012 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12109.pdf 8
  • 9. climate science is starkbut politics bumpy 9
  • 10. climate change…good news…“It is possible to restrict warming to 2C or less during the 21st century with at least 50% probability…... Informing Choices, 2009, UK Met Office emphasis added 10
  • 11. climate change…bad news…“It is possible to restrict warming to 2C or less during the 21st century with at least 50% probability…... …with emissions reductions of 5% per year but peak emissions would have to happen by about 2020” Informing Choices, 2009, UK Met Office emphasis added 11
  • 12. negligible progress on internationalagreements... but significant pressuresfrom national and regional targetsEU: 20% reduction in China: 40-45%carbon dioxide by reduction in carbon2020 (30% if there’s intensity by 2020global agreement), 20%renewables by 2020India: 24% voluntary US: $80bn greenintensity target by stimulus, and maybe2020 a 17% reduction in 2020 (but on 2005 levels) 12
  • 13. and our infrastructureneeds to be resilient 13
  • 14. deeper relationships and new investment models 14
  • 15. Progressive investors…small steps into future proofing and two-tier property market…Bridges Ventures Sustainable Property Fund£50m – acquire and renovate olderbuildings to high environmental standardsClimate Change Capital£70m fund and growing – commercialproperty with emphasis on retrofittingin UK cities 15
  • 16. technologyand information 16
  • 17. ubiquity of ICT and a networked world 17
  • 18. transparency…nowhere to hide 18
  • 19. top down…Companies representing 54% total value ofworld’s equity markets report climate impactdata through the Carbon Disclosure Project. CRC EES league table of all organisations with an energy bill greater than ~ £500k 19
  • 20. and bottom up… 20
  • 21. rise of organisational sustainability 21
  • 22. Hampshire County Council• 70% energy reduction• 70% more staff• 30% less space required 22
  • 23. Implications 23
  • 24. Sorting out direct impacts is nowbasic hygieneCompliance should not be enough for leaders andforward looking organisationsDisclosure and assurance will place increasingimportance upon responsible management…and in a continuing tough economic climate,eco-efficiency will become even more important 24
  • 25. some cultural challenges…Joined up thinking - more effective & meaningfulengagement across organisations, alignment of sustainability with planning cycles, closer working between departments and functionsRe-examination of points of engagement with suppliers,eg. landlord & tenant, FM & designersIncrease capacity through more holistic approach totraining provided to property, FM and energy professions 25
  • 26. some economic…Valuing sustainability… linkages between sustainabilityand long-term value increasingly cleare.g. whole life costing and Capex vs Opex debateLeaders waking up to the “Elephant in the Room”…will a two tier market materialise with depreciation of poorperforming assets? 26
  • 27. and be prepared forsystemic shifts…From an employer to an enabler ofhealth and well-beingFrom a passive occupier to aninformed and empowered consumerFrom isolated assets to communityserviceFrom property as part of the builtenvironment to part of the energysystem 27
  • 28. thank youforumforthefuture.org | registered charity no. 1040519