Ben ross energy_futures_may_2012


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Ben ross energy_futures_may_2012

  1. 1. Energy Futures for You- long term strategic planning16th May 2012
  2. 2. fundamentally… 2
  3. 3. Shaping your operating context Big Picture Drivers Results trends 3
  4. 4. resources technology climate significant trends for WECCnew ways of organisationalworking transparency sustainability 4
  5. 5. all of this growth & regionalPopulation is against a backdrop of,and often driven by…variancespopulation growth & urbanisation 5
  6. 6. resource scarcity 6
  7. 7. Since 2000 commodity prices havemore than doubled Source: McKinsey Global Institute 7
  8. 8. With oil prices rising nearly 5 fold,hiding huge fluctuations, and expected to keeprising… IMF “The Future of Oil” May 2012 8
  9. 9. climate science is starkbut politics bumpy 9
  10. 10. climate change…good news…“It is possible to restrict warming to 2C or less during the 21st century with at least 50% probability…... Informing Choices, 2009, UK Met Office emphasis added 10
  11. 11. climate change…bad news…“It is possible to restrict warming to 2C or less during the 21st century with at least 50% probability…... …with emissions reductions of 5% per year but peak emissions would have to happen by about 2020” Informing Choices, 2009, UK Met Office emphasis added 11
  12. 12. negligible progress on internationalagreements... but significant pressuresfrom national and regional targetsEU: 20% reduction in China: 40-45%carbon dioxide by reduction in carbon2020 (30% if there’s intensity by 2020global agreement), 20%renewables by 2020India: 24% voluntary US: $80bn greenintensity target by stimulus, and maybe2020 a 17% reduction in 2020 (but on 2005 levels) 12
  13. 13. and our infrastructureneeds to be resilient 13
  14. 14. deeper relationships and new investment models 14
  15. 15. Progressive investors…small steps into future proofing and two-tier property market…Bridges Ventures Sustainable Property Fund£50m – acquire and renovate olderbuildings to high environmental standardsClimate Change Capital£70m fund and growing – commercialproperty with emphasis on retrofittingin UK cities 15
  16. 16. technologyand information 16
  17. 17. ubiquity of ICT and a networked world 17
  18. 18. transparency…nowhere to hide 18
  19. 19. top down…Companies representing 54% total value ofworld’s equity markets report climate impactdata through the Carbon Disclosure Project. CRC EES league table of all organisations with an energy bill greater than ~ £500k 19
  20. 20. and bottom up… 20
  21. 21. rise of organisational sustainability 21
  22. 22. Hampshire County Council• 70% energy reduction• 70% more staff• 30% less space required 22
  23. 23. Implications 23
  24. 24. Sorting out direct impacts is nowbasic hygieneCompliance should not be enough for leaders andforward looking organisationsDisclosure and assurance will place increasingimportance upon responsible management…and in a continuing tough economic climate,eco-efficiency will become even more important 24
  25. 25. some cultural challenges…Joined up thinking - more effective & meaningfulengagement across organisations, alignment of sustainability with planning cycles, closer working between departments and functionsRe-examination of points of engagement with suppliers,eg. landlord & tenant, FM & designersIncrease capacity through more holistic approach totraining provided to property, FM and energy professions 25
  26. 26. some economic…Valuing sustainability… linkages between sustainabilityand long-term value increasingly cleare.g. whole life costing and Capex vs Opex debateLeaders waking up to the “Elephant in the Room”…will a two tier market materialise with depreciation of poorperforming assets? 26
  27. 27. and be prepared forsystemic shifts…From an employer to an enabler ofhealth and well-beingFrom a passive occupier to aninformed and empowered consumerFrom isolated assets to communityserviceFrom property as part of the builtenvironment to part of the energysystem 27
  28. 28. thank | registered charity no. 1040519
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