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    • 1. Water Resources and International Conflict: Game Theory Kristina Schneider CE 384D
    • 2. “ The wars of the next century will be about water” - Ismail Serageldin, Vice – President of the World Bank in a 1995 New York Times Article.
    • 3. Overview
      • The Nature of Water Resource Conflict
      • Game Theory: A Brief Introduction
      • Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya River Basin
      • Conclusions
    • 4. The Nature of Water Resource Conflict
      • Water is not contained in political boundaries.
              • Boundary over which rivers cross!
    • 5. Natural Limits
      • Factors that will determine the speed at which societies reach the bounds of their water resources:
        • Level of development desired
        • Absolute availability Water
        • Population supplied
      • The quality of the water
    • 6. Resource Rivalry
      • Potential causes of water disputes:
        • Amount the resource is shared among the nations
        • Degree of scarcity of water
        • Relative power of each nation
        • Accessibility of alternative fresh water supplies.
    • 7. Will War result?
      • Most likely not!
        • It is not strategically rational.
        • It is hydrographically ineffective.
        • It is economically infeasible.
      • Even if violence does not result, water resource inequalities still:
        • Causes more poverty
        • Shortens lives
        • Decreases the stability of the nation
    • 8. Game Theory: A Brief Introduction
      • Game theory is a mathematical analysis of any situation involving a conflict of interest, with the intent of indicating the optimal choices that, under given conditions, will lead to a desired outcome.
            • MSN Encarta
      • Game theory is study of how players should rationally play games. Each player would like the game end in an outcome with gives them as large as a payoff as possible.
            • - Straffin, Game Theory and Strategy
    • 9. Game Theory: A Brief Introduction
      • The decision makers are called players.
      • Two person or multi-person games exist.
      • The payoff, or outcome, is happens at the end of a game.
      • Solutions of a game can be found at equilibrium points.
    • 10. Game Theory: Assumptions
      • Each player can chose between two or more clear choices.
      • Every decision will lead to a win, a lose, or a draw.
      • The rules of the game and the payoffs for each player are known by all participants.
      • The players will act rationally.
    • 11. Game Theory: Payoffs
      • Payoffs are often represented in matrix form.
      • Payoffs determine what type of game is played.
      • Zero-sum Games
          • One player wins while the other loses.
      • Non-zero-sum Games
          • No straight forward answer exists.
    • 12. Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya River Basin
    • 13. The River Basin’s Unique Challenges: Former USSR Republics
      • Water Allocation Schemas were created with the following assumptions:
        • The river was contained in one nation
        • Hydrotechincal facilities were developed to serve irrigation needs
        • Water deficits would be alleviated by transfers from Siberia
        • Downstream countries would provide upstream countries with heating fuels.
    • 14. The Toktogul Reservoir
      • Main reservoir along the river
        • Provides irrigation storage – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
        • Provides power - Kyrgyzstan
    • 15. Toktogul Model
      • Use Multiobjective Water Resource Allocation Model for the Toktogul Reservoir to find payoffs.
      • Three scenarios:
        • Maximize irrigation needs
        • Maximize power generation for both summer and winter.
        • Baseline – no dam exists.
      • Two flow regimes
        • NNNNN
        • NNDNN
    • 16. Economic Results of the Model
    • 17. Game Theory: Syr Darya
      • Two person non-zero-sum game
      • Players
        • Downstream - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
        • Upstream – Kyrgyzstan
      • Only Irrigation and Power Scenarios considered
    • 18. Payoff Matrices for Application of to the Syr Darya River Basin
    • 19. Payoff Polygons for Application to the Syr Darya River Basin
    • 20. Analysis of Game Theory Application
      • Payoffs are not the correct outcomes analyze the game.
      • The multiple variables increase the complication of the analysis.
      • If you ignore this, a clear equilibrium point exists at IP.
      • This is a logical choice.
    • 21. Conclusions
      • International Water Conflict will occur.
      • Conflict situations will not be violent.
      • Game theory is a valid tool to help in water resource decision making.
      • The correct payoffs must be used to receive a correct solution to a game.