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WaterResources

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WaterResources WaterResources Presentation Transcript

  • Water Resources and International Conflict: Game Theory Kristina Schneider CE 384D
  • “ The wars of the next century will be about water” - Ismail Serageldin, Vice – President of the World Bank in a 1995 New York Times Article.
  • Overview
    • The Nature of Water Resource Conflict
    • Game Theory: A Brief Introduction
    • Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya River Basin
    • Conclusions
  • The Nature of Water Resource Conflict
    • Water is not contained in political boundaries.
            • Boundary over which rivers cross!
    http://maps.esri.com/esri/arcview/world/world.html
  • Natural Limits
    • Factors that will determine the speed at which societies reach the bounds of their water resources:
      • Level of development desired
      • Absolute availability Water
      • Population supplied
    • The quality of the water
  • Resource Rivalry
    • Potential causes of water disputes:
      • Amount the resource is shared among the nations
      • Degree of scarcity of water
      • Relative power of each nation
      • Accessibility of alternative fresh water supplies.
  • Will War result?
    • Most likely not!
      • It is not strategically rational.
      • It is hydrographically ineffective.
      • It is economically infeasible.
    • Even if violence does not result, water resource inequalities still:
      • Causes more poverty
      • Shortens lives
      • Decreases the stability of the nation
  • Game Theory: A Brief Introduction
    • Game theory is a mathematical analysis of any situation involving a conflict of interest, with the intent of indicating the optimal choices that, under given conditions, will lead to a desired outcome.
          • MSN Encarta
    • Game theory is study of how players should rationally play games. Each player would like the game end in an outcome with gives them as large as a payoff as possible.
          • - Straffin, Game Theory and Strategy
  • Game Theory: A Brief Introduction
    • The decision makers are called players.
    • Two person or multi-person games exist.
    • The payoff, or outcome, is happens at the end of a game.
    • Solutions of a game can be found at equilibrium points.
  • Game Theory: Assumptions
    • Each player can chose between two or more clear choices.
    • Every decision will lead to a win, a lose, or a draw.
    • The rules of the game and the payoffs for each player are known by all participants.
    • The players will act rationally.
  • Game Theory: Payoffs
    • Payoffs are often represented in matrix form.
    • Payoffs determine what type of game is played.
    • Zero-sum Games
        • One player wins while the other loses.
    • Non-zero-sum Games
        • No straight forward answer exists.
  • Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya River Basin
  • The River Basin’s Unique Challenges: Former USSR Republics
    • Water Allocation Schemas were created with the following assumptions:
      • The river was contained in one nation
      • Hydrotechincal facilities were developed to serve irrigation needs
      • Water deficits would be alleviated by transfers from Siberia
      • Downstream countries would provide upstream countries with heating fuels.
  • The Toktogul Reservoir
    • Main reservoir along the river
      • Provides irrigation storage – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
      • Provides power - Kyrgyzstan
  • Toktogul Model
    • Use Multiobjective Water Resource Allocation Model for the Toktogul Reservoir to find payoffs.
    • Three scenarios:
      • Maximize irrigation needs
      • Maximize power generation for both summer and winter.
      • Baseline – no dam exists.
    • Two flow regimes
      • NNNNN
      • NNDNN
  • Economic Results of the Model
  • Game Theory: Syr Darya
    • Two person non-zero-sum game
    • Players
      • Downstream - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
      • Upstream – Kyrgyzstan
    • Only Irrigation and Power Scenarios considered
  • Payoff Matrices for Application of to the Syr Darya River Basin
  • Payoff Polygons for Application to the Syr Darya River Basin
  • Analysis of Game Theory Application
    • Payoffs are not the correct outcomes analyze the game.
    • The multiple variables increase the complication of the analysis.
    • If you ignore this, a clear equilibrium point exists at IP.
    • This is a logical choice.
  • Conclusions
    • International Water Conflict will occur.
    • Conflict situations will not be violent.
    • Game theory is a valid tool to help in water resource decision making.
    • The correct payoffs must be used to receive a correct solution to a game.