Measures to develop a sustainable transport system “ Future of Transport” conference, Leuven, 25 June 2010 Matthew Ledbury, Senior Policy Adviser (Environment)
Transport: only sector in which GHG emissions are increasing Source: EC 2007 and UIC Energy/CO 2 database CO2 emissions 2005 in EU27 (million tonnes) +25%
Trajectory of current transport emissions v. desired decrease in overall emissions
Transport forecasts expect continued future growth source: European Environment Agency TERM Report 2010 (EEA 2010) Mio. Passenger kilometres – EU 27 Mio. Tonne kilometres – EU 27
Where should reduction efforts be made? “… in order to reduce transport‘s GHG emissions by around 89% compared to 1990, it is essential that both technical and non-technical options are taken up. Given the already ambitious assumptions underlying the technical scenarios, it would be very challenging (if not impossible) to deliver such levels of GHG emission reduction by stimulating technical options alone…” ‘ EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050?’ study Final report published June 2010
Why an overall target for reducing transport emissions is needed 2020 2020 2020 2020 100 80 100 100 80 100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Transport volume 80% 80% 70% 70% 73% 180% 73% 180% 1. Mode specific targets : Each sector reduces transport volume and thus GHG Emissions by 20% 2. Overall transport target : substantial modal shift to rail, lower specific emissions, absolute emissions target reached without decreasing transport volume 2010 2010 2010 2010 In % of 2010: In % of 2010: In % of 2010: In % of 2010: Rail Road Rail Road Rail Road Rail Road Transport volume declines Transport volume unchanged!
Role of economic instruments: effect of current low prices for road transport EUR per litre petrol equivalent Source: DG TREN, 2008 <ul><li>Road is perceived as the cheapest transport mode: </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel prices largely stable (corrected for inflation) </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity gains due to modern technology and logistics concepts </li></ul><ul><li>Important costs are externalized to society </li></ul><ul><li>If prices are not adjusted, traffic volumes will continue to grow uncontrollably </li></ul>
Road does not cover its costs – government revenue hardly covers infrastructure cost Fuel Taxes 33 Road tolls 16 Other Taxes 5 Infrastructure 51 Accidents 30 Congestion 24 Noise 18 Air pollution 16 CO 2 Emissions 5 EU 27 – HGV Revenues and Costs in billion Euro Total Revenue: 54 Total costs: 144 Source: Are Trucks taking their toll? (CE Delft, 2009) ? Price Gap
Internal costs (€/lorry km) (paid by users) External costs (€/lorry km) (paid by society) Wages Energy/Fuel Rolling Stock Administration Other 1) TOTAL Infrastructure Air pollution Climate change Accidents Congestion Noise Other 2) TOTAL 0,39 0,27 0,21 0,18 0,21 1,25 0,200 0,044 0,122 0,055 0,090 0,004 0,078 0,515 Source: Internalisation of External Costs on Transport, IWW Karlsruhe 2009 <ul><li>E. g. insurance, taxes, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>E. g. land use, water and soil pollution, etc. </li></ul>External costs need to be internalised following the “polluter pays” principle
Source: Internalisation of External Costs on Transport, IWW Karlsruhe 2009 Internalisation of external costs would change modal split of freight
Conclusions <ul><li>The ‘avoid-shift-improve’ strategy should be followed for reducing emissions </li></ul><ul><li>The better use of price signals to improve the efficiency of the transport system through internalising external costs is essential </li></ul><ul><li>In order to properly address CO2 emissions, a reduction target specifically for the transport sector should be established </li></ul><ul><li>Investment in transport should be focussed on where it will help reduce emissions from transport as a whole </li></ul>
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