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NetBase Social Savvy Webinar on Social Sharing and Socially Viral Video


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Marshall Sponder: Use Big Data to Predict Viral Marketing …

Marshall Sponder: Use Big Data to Predict Viral Marketing
October 23, 2013, 11am PT | 2pm ET
Duration: 1 hour
Marshall Sponder is CEO of Web Metrics Guru and an independent Web Analytics and SEO/SEM specialist working in the field of market research, social media, networking and PR. He provides digital data convergence generating ROI and develops data metrics, KPI’s and dashboards that drive businesses by setting and evaluating benchmarks. He lately focuses on social media metrics, having worked as a group leader at IBM and Monster, done contract work at Porter Novelli PR, small busines, and start-ups. Clients have included various B2B companies, the New York Times, architects, digital ad agencies, and more. He has provided Web tracking and attribution metrics for Gillette, Laughing Cow, and others.
Marshall holds an MA in Media Studies form the NY Institute of Technology and possesses a Certificate of Marketing Management from the Baruch College, a NY Continuing Education Division.
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  • 1. Using Big Data to measure the Effectiveness of Viral Marketing Marshall Sponder October 23, 2013
  • 2. What does it take to identify, ideate, create and track Viral Media Campaigns?
  • 3. Data supporting demand for Viral Media, particularly Viral and Social Videos
  • 4. 35% of adults who post videos online (11% of all adult internet users) hope to see their video go viral. - Pew Report - Pew Internet
  • 5. The number of adult Americans who watch online video has risen to 78% while those who upload video to the internet has doubled since 2008 from 14% to 31%. Source: PEW Report
  • 6. More people are enjoying Online Videos and recommending them to their friends, augmenting viral spread
  • 7. WOM is the most popular way to share content that would go viral
  • 8. Photo and Video-Based Social Media Gains Widespread Adoption Among Retailers
  • 9. Facebook seems to be the best place to embed Social Video (campaigns)
  • 10. User generated content & professional (Paid Ads) are the preferred way to create and spread Viral Video
  • 11. Viewers are affected when viewing strong Video Content including Video Advertising campaigns Note: We started our inquiry around Social Videos because that is Unruly area of focus and their secret sauce.
  • 12. Exposure to Social Video campaign for Go Pro Hero 3 in the UK increased likelihood of viewers to buy products and services ~400% than those not exposed.
  • 13. Emotions are at the root of Viral Marketing - we do not share what we are not feeling strongly about"
  • 14. New Analytics are needed for New Media "The TV industry is at an inflection point now with the introduction of new media, which is expanding the need for a new kind of analytics". - David Poltrack, chief research officer at CBS
  • 15. What is Big Data? Source:
  • 16. Understanding and managing “Big Data” is part of Social Video and Viral Video Campaigns. Platforms such as NetBase and Unruly can be combined to provide New Insights to drive Actionable Results.
  • 17. Good marketing research is relevant and rigorous. Relevance cannot be achieved without rigor, but rigor can be achieved without relevance. - Karen Nelson-Field - Viral Marketing - The Science of Sharing
  • 18. The widely accepted view is that an emotional response is important in driving further cognitive or behavioral responses. Reactions to advertising-or anything else for that matter-are rarely purely rational. - Karen Nelson Field, Viral Marketing, The Science of Sharing
  • 19. Explanation of the Brand Passion Index Will Content Spread?
  • 20. Emotive Tracking for VIRAL Campaigns using NetBase
  • 21. Scoring EMOTIONS and PASSION/INTENSITY can be adapted to Social Campaign tracking
  • 22. Scoring Strong Passion for a SPECIFIC EMOTION NetBase can do something almost no other platform was built to process - analyze text for any emotion and intensity
  • 23. Brand Passion Index: Dancing with the Stars Crushes the Competition | NetBase NetBase is an unparalleled platform for understanding the feelings around any topic and can be used to understand what topics and content could take off and become viral, and why
  • 24. NetBase recently launched TV Show Analysis Dashboard reveals at a glance key metrics and real-time trends in audience reactions to various TV/Cable shows (show: The Walking Dead]. Source: TV and Ads eBook – NetBase
  • 25. The NetBase TV Show Analysis Dashboard shows key metrics and real-time trends in the audience reaction and passions at a glance to any content programming. Source: TV and Ads eBook – NetBase
  • 26. A Connection between TV Viewership and Twitter has been vindicated a Nielsen study earlier this year and several recent acquisitions by Twitter of Bluefin Labs, Trendrr and from Nielsen, SocialGuide Nov? 40%
  • 27. Out of the Box NetBase is able, via TV Analytics, to identify individual elements of a show, such as the characters against each other for buzz and sentiment passion intensity. Source: TV and Ads eBook – NetBase Note: An additional step, based on this webinar, would be combining emotion tracking along with the TV Analytics that NetBase provides and come up with what specific emotions and effects Online Content has along with the effect the emotion has on Viral Sharing.
  • 28. Episodes can be compared to each other on a range of criteria, including Passion Intensity Source: TV and Ads eBook – NetBase
  • 29. Certain types of programming are more influenced by Tweets of Viewers than others, particularly Competitive Reality (i.e.: The Voice), Face Off, American Idol where both Unruly and NetBase have more data to work with.
  • 30. The stakes for hitting it right with Socially Viral Media (esp. online video campaigns) will be sky rocketing past 2016
  • 31. Online Videos analyzed for Passion/Intensity/Sentiment Unruly – Viral Video Chart 9/30 – Top Social Videos
  • 32. NetBase detects emotion and behavior much easier than other platforms I have worked with
  • 33. Arousal Valence Emotions Grid Source: Karen Nelson-Field - Viral Marketing, The Science of Sharing, Table 3-2, page 24
  • 34. Two factors of sharing – psychological and Social motivations
  • 35. Unruly Media Psychological Response Note: The classification system above is similar but not identical to what Karen NelsonField uses in her research on Viral Marketing and in her book on Social Sharing.
  • 36. Reading Sentiment using NetBase Hilarity Filter – this is one of 16 psychological filters I built using NetBase Composer
  • 37. Ylvis - The Fox (What does the Fox say?) [Official music video HD] Note: This video was shared by 1:13 people who viewed it.
  • 38. Unruly Data on Ylvis The Fox corresponds to some extent with NetNase's Emotion sharing - reaffirming the link between emotion and sharing
  • 39. Want a Million Likes on Facebook? It's All About the Re-shares Source:
  • 40. STUDY: If A Facebook Post Hasn’t Gone Viral In Three Hours, It Probably Won’t Source:
  • 41. Twitter explains how Chris Hadfield went viral | Technology |
  • 42. Facegroup » Twitter Video Virality - Chris Hadfield
  • 43. Telekinetic Coffee Shop Surprise#1 on Unruly Viral Video Chart as of 10/13/13 The video was shared 1:21 which is somewhat less than Ylvis the Fox
  • 44. Astonishment drives many responses to top online video (social) campaigns
  • 45. Encoding Emotions is possible using NetBase with Unruly
  • 46. The Value of using NetBase and platforms such as Unruly to drive marketing results that are Actionable.
  • 47. Figuring out, at least, partially what content is sharable has high value to both Marketers and Creatives
  • 48. Facebook is a good way to spread viral content, esp. for mobile based viral campaigns
  • 49. Video Ad Networks, Video Sites and Social Media are where the Ad Spending and Viral Seeding funds are best spent
  • 50. Brands Get Beyond Hype when they connect emotive, sharable content with powerful social tactics
  • 51. Rutgers University & Unruly partnering to create a course about the details around Creating Viral Media (using Big Data) Launching late 2013
  • 52. What is on the Unruly Menu?
  • 53. Practical Takeaways NetBase can be used along with Unruly Viral Video Chart to understand not only what is trending, but why - and which direction it will go next. Net offering such as TV Analytics can benefit by understanding both passion points and emotion tracking that lead to Viral Spreading of content, Content can be tested to see how it scores on emotion based on the panel that exists on the internet (that comments on the content). Using Unruly Viral Video Chart we were able to derive the ratio between viewing content and sharing it - this can be monitored to find out what is really catching on (going viral) and when it happens. Using NetBase, we can learn what emotions are stimulating to specific audience, map audience based on emotions (not done here) and begin to build predictive models of what content will be stimulating to audiences you're trying to reach.
  • 54. Thank You! Marshall Sponder CEO, WebMetricsGuru INC @WebMetricsGuru - SocialMediaForTheArts