Creating your future with scenarios                   By Derek Moore
Do you remember?
3D Video                   Electronic Publishing     Smart ObjectsAlternative Licensing      Game-Based Learning       Soc...
ExtrapolationEnvironmentalScanning
“Prediction is verydifficult, especially if it’sabout the future”                      Niels Bohr 500 Danish Kroner
Mega Trends              • An accelerating shift in                economic power              • Market instability       ...
Emerging Technologies
Creative Destruction
Disruptive Innovation
Black Swan
“Higher Education is ina powerful transition,moving from aninstructional paradigmto a learning paradigm.
Scenarios• Stories about the future  – Identify trends  – Scan the environment  – Listen to groups of experts  – Test prop...
Phantom Learning
The Lost Decade
The Nomad
Renaissance              Attribution-NonCommercial 2.0 Generic by smlions12
So, what doesthis mean for     me?
CreditsThank You                    • Images – Flickr CC                             • Scenarios adapted fromBy Derek Moor...
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
Please disrupt me
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As the rate of change speeds up, it is likely that some technology or business somewhere/somehow has or will disrupt you and what you are doing. While it may be overdramatic to term these disruptions a “Black Swan”, it is reasonable to assume that as the world grows in complexity, our working lives will be disrupted (if it hasn’t already happened) by some technological “innovation”. In education, many have argued that emergent technologies are going to disrupt the way that schools and universities go about their business. This presentation will introduce you to some of the techniques used by these futurists, survey some of the recent presentations and articles about education and technology and attempt to sketch out some of the scenarios for education that may lie on the near horizon.

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  • Cyberspace was restricted to our computer terminalsWe had phone listings instead of web pagesPrivacy was real and people could actually get lostWe went out to socialize, work, and conduct commerce
  • http://maedchenimmond.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/why-do-big-dominant-companies-fail.html
  • "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876 "The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" -- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
  • Environmental scanning can be defined as ‘the study and interpretation of the political, economic, social and technological events and trends which influence a business, an industry or even a total market’.[2] The factors which need to be considered for environmental scanning are events, trends, issues and expectations of the different interest groups. Issues are often forerunners of trend breaks. A trend break could be a value shift in society, a technological innovation that might be permanent or a paradigm change. Issues are less deep-seated and can be 'a temporary short-lived reaction to a social phenomenon'.[3] A trend can be defined as an ‘environmental phenomenon that has adopted a structural character’.[4]
  • In the history of technology, emerging technologies are contemporary advances and innovation in various fields of technology. Various converging technologies have emerged in the technological convergence of different systems evolving towards similar goals. Convergence can refer to previously separate technologies such as voice (and telephony features), data (and productivity applications) and video that now share resources and interact with each other, creating new efficiencies.Emerging technologies are those technical innovations which represent progressive developments within a field for competitive advantage;[1] converging technologies represent previously distinct fields which are in some way moving towards stronger inter-connection and similar goals. However, the opinion on the degree of impact, status and economic viability of several emerging and converging technologies vary.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_technologies
  • The term creative destruction, sometimes known as "Schumpeter's gale" (see below), has since the 1950s become most readily identified with the Austrian-American economist Joseph Schumpeter,[1] who adapted it from the work of Karl Marx and popularized it as a theory of economic innovation and the business cycle. The term is derived from Marxisteconomic theory, where it refers to the linked processes of the accumulation and annihilation of wealth under capitalism. These processes were first described in The Communist Manifesto (Marx and Engels, 1848)[2] and were expanded in Marx's Grundrisse (1857)[3] and "Volume IV" (1863) of Das Kapital.[4]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction
  • A disruptive innovation is an innovation that helps create a new market and value network, and eventually goes on to disrupt an existing market and value network (over a few years or decades), displacing an earlier technology. The term is used in business and technology literature to describe innovations that improve a product or service in ways that the market does not expect, typically first by designing for a different set of consumers in the new market and later by lowering prices in the existing market.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovationhttp://www.pcworld.com/article/143474-10/the_10_most_disruptive_technology_combinations.htmlhttp://thenextweb.com/insider/2011/11/13/clayton-christensen-why-online-education-is-ready-for-disruption-now/
  • he black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that an event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight.The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technologyThe non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairsUnlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.[1]
  • The underlying assumption of such models is that any future change is a continuation of the direction and rate of present trends among a limited number of social, technological, economic, and political variables. Thus, the future for the institution is assumed to reflect the past and present or, in essence, to be "surprise-free." However, we know that this is not true, and the further we plan into the future, the less it will be true.
  • Schools are rare and distantInformation is plentiful and nearARBack channelsMoocsAccreditationLibrary: media production campProfessional development
  • Decay sets in,chronic popular discontnetSTEM fieldScholarly publication
  • Alt.residentialOnline/blended learning is the new normalResidential education a nichedMentor is a big positionClasses are outsourcesClassrooms are in studio modeMaker culture is the normalUnique campus
  • RenaissanceStorytelling is normativeGaming is part of mainstream cultureInterface change
  • ExtrapolationEnvironmental Scanning
  • Making sense of the changes around usMaking progress in an increasingly unfamiliar world
  • Please disrupt me

    1. 1. Creating your future with scenarios By Derek Moore
    2. 2. Do you remember?
    3. 3. 3D Video Electronic Publishing Smart ObjectsAlternative Licensing Game-Based Learning Social MediaAugmented Reality Geolocation Social NetworkingCellular Networks Gesture-Based Statistical Machine Translation ComputingCloud Computing Tablet Computing Learning AnalyticsCollaborative Environments Location-Based Services TaggingCollective Intelligence Mobiles & Mobile Apps TelepresenceCrowd Sourcing New Scholarship Thin Film DisplaysDigital Identity Open Content Virtual Worlds Personal LearningDigital Preservation Visual Data Analysis Environments Semantic Applications Wireless Power
    4. 4. ExtrapolationEnvironmentalScanning
    5. 5. “Prediction is verydifficult, especially if it’sabout the future” Niels Bohr 500 Danish Kroner
    6. 6. Mega Trends • An accelerating shift in economic power • Market instability • Technological progress
    7. 7. Emerging Technologies
    8. 8. Creative Destruction
    9. 9. Disruptive Innovation
    10. 10. Black Swan
    11. 11. “Higher Education is ina powerful transition,moving from aninstructional paradigmto a learning paradigm.
    12. 12. Scenarios• Stories about the future – Identify trends – Scan the environment – Listen to groups of experts – Test propositions
    13. 13. Phantom Learning
    14. 14. The Lost Decade
    15. 15. The Nomad
    16. 16. Renaissance Attribution-NonCommercial 2.0 Generic by smlions12
    17. 17. So, what doesthis mean for me?
    18. 18. CreditsThank You • Images – Flickr CC • Scenarios adapted fromBy Derek Moore@weblearningCC Attribution Share Alike Bryan Alexander’s presentation at the University of Mary Washington
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