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The Drive for Flexibility: Maximizingthe Value of Each Energy SourceDarren FinkbeinerManager, Market DevelopmentJune 8, 2012
Renewable Generation: What the Future HoldsMay 2012 12000 Total Wind and Solar Outlook 10000 8000 Future Dx Solar Future Tx SolarMW 6000 Future Dx Wind Future Tx Wind Existing Dx Solar 4000 Existing Dx Wind Existing Tx Wind 2000 0 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Note: Values include assumptions based on current information 2
Managing Supply Dispatchable Baseload Variable Wind Peaking Hydro Nuclear and Baseload Hydro Natural Gas• Hydro: highly flexible • Limited flexibility to • Output varies depending when there’s water manoeuvre on conditions• Gas: highly flex, if min • Can’t “follow” demand • But highly flexible loading point is met within those max outputs More control Less control
Renewables Integration Initiative: Areas of Focus Forecasting Visibility DispatchAbility to predict New processes Integration ofoutput from such as direct renewables intovariable telemetry and the economicresources is reporting are dispatch isessential for needed to ensure required tomaintaining visibility of large- resolve issuessystem reliability scale embedded like surplusand market wind and solar baseloadefficiency generators generation 4
A Constant Evolution: Future Sources of flexibility• Storage – various technologies are emerging to address the challenges of variable sources• Demand Response - markets are increasingly incorporating DR into their markets, including ancillary services• Smart Grids – leading to a more sophisticated retail load base, capable of dynamically responding to changing load conditions